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Targaryan and Blackfyre Alliance Theory


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So, Barriston may be the key to discovering who Aegon really is...or at least the key to finding out who dishonored Ashara at Harrenhal.

Why? There's plenty of other people who were there: Jaime at the beginning, Jon Connington, Howland Reed, possibly Stannis etc. It was the biggest tourney in living memory, everyone who was anyone was there (excluding former hands currently pissed at the king for taking their heir away).

Just because he says all of the Kings secrets are hers doesn't mean he is going to tell her how her father raped several women including her mother, which is most likely how she was concieved. Aerys was referred to as "The Mad King" so simply calling him mad is not really an insult, it is likely calling Barriston "Bold."

Barristan seems to take this quite literally: if Dany asks about anything, he'll tell her. Again: he only shuts up when she asks him to.

As for the nicknames, they come in two varieties in Westeros the flattering kind and the other one. People who are unlucky enough to get stuck with the second variety are usually only referred by them if people want to insult them, be it to their face or behind their back.

Barristan is actually a kind of interesting case, for his stunt he could easily have gotten stuck with a less flattering sobriquet (Barristan the Babe?), but Prince Duncan (who himself had gotten stuck with "the Small") preempted that by calling him "the Bold". Kind of similar to how Wyllas Tyrell dubbed his brother Garlan "the Gallant".

Now "the Mad King" is not in any way flattering. It's also something Dany doesn't want to believe about her father, yet Barristan brings it up anyway because he will give her the truth.

Varys, it seems, is lying to or at least misleading everyone...Tyrion, Eddard, and Illyrio may all think he told them the truth but I feel he is lying to everyone.

It's pretty obvious that he lies to Tyrion and Eddard (or at least omits quite a lot of important information when talking to them) even while we're reading about their interactions. On the other hand. Illyrio is his oldest (and only?) friend. They've known each other since they were teenagers. Why do you think there's an additional twist here? What's Varys' motivation? What's GRRM's for writing it (this plot is convoluted enough as it is, and he's planning on finishing the entire series, zombie invasion included, in two more books)?

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Barriston is the only POV character who was at the tourney of Harrenhal, except for JonCon. After reading the last post I went to read the JonCon wiki page and it said the JonCon did dance with Ashara Dayne, so I agree...something happened at the Tourney of Harrenhal and it is possible that both Barriston and JonCon know.

So...JonCon may have danced with Ashara but it has been heavily suspected that JonCon was in love with Prince Rhaegar, so it is highly unlikely that he is Aegon VI father.

JonCon was loyal, heart and soul, to Prince Rhaegar. He was a Targaryen.

I checked, the Blackfyres are the house that descend from Daemon Blackfyre. Bloodraven fought against him...yet the 3 eyed crow said that he had a brother he loved and a brother he hated. He hated bittersteel...so he loved Blackfyre.

So, I am going to change my original theory...

There is a Targaryen/Blackfyre alliance...but not all parties in the alliance know about it. I'm not sure JonCon knows the truth about Aegon VI, whatever it is, but he loved Rhaegar and wants the "namesake" of his silver Prince to sit the Iron Throne.

The Three-Eyed-Crow wants to see his loved brothers ancester sit the Iron Throne...he thinks its Aegon VI.

So these parties are all working together to try and put Aegon VI on the Iron Throne...but none of them know the truth about his birth...he is really Ashara Dayne's son. Varys could be smart enough to trick and confuse some of the smartest people in Westeros...Eddard, Tyrion, JonCon, Rhaegar, Aerys...he can lie and manipulate everyone...including Illyrio in my opinion...to see that whoever sits on the Iron Throne serves the people as best they can.

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Where to start with this? You still haven't given any reasoning why "Aegon" being Ashara's son makes any sense, both in the story or on a meta level. You just seem to be trying to tie random bits of information and various characters together to craft some kind of elaborate conspiracy, but I can't say I can really make head or tail of what that conspiracy is, what it's trying to accomplish and most importantly: why?

Some minor points:

Barriston is the only POV character who was at the tourney of Harrenhal, except for JonCon. After reading the last post I went to read the JonCon wiki page and it said the JonCon did dance with Ashara Dayne, so I agree...something happened at the Tourney of Harrenhal and it is possible that both Barriston and JonCon know.

Lots of stuff happened at Harrenhal according to GRRM. Who Ashara slept with is probably one of the minor mysteries, though.

I checked, the Blackfyres are the house that descend from Daemon Blackfyre. Bloodraven fought against him...yet the 3 eyed crow said that he had a brother he loved and a brother he hated. He hated bittersteel...so he loved Blackfyre.

IIRC it's left ambiguous which brother Bloodraven means by the one he loved and which one he hated (though yes, Daemon makes more sense as the one he loved, also gives the story more pathos). All we know for sure is that Daemon is the one he killed.

There is a Targaryen/Blackfyre alliance...but not all parties in the alliance know about it. I'm not sure JonCon knows the truth about Aegon VI, whatever it is, but he loved Rhaegar and wants the "namesake" of his silver Prince to sit the Iron Throne.

How can there be an alliance with the Blackfyres if there aren't any Blackfyres? Also, namesake is definitely not the word you were looking for there...

The Three-Eyed-Crow wants to see his loved brothers ancester sit the Iron Throne...he thinks its Aegon VI.

Where in the book did you get the impression that Bloodraven cares about who rules the realm? He has been concerned with the struggle up north the whole time, and with whatever Bran saw when he looked into the heart of winter.

We do however know that Bloodraven was instrumental in stopping Daemon Blackfyre from becoming king back in the day. By killing him.

So these parties are all working together to try and put Aegon VI on the Iron Throne...but none of them know the truth about his birth...he is really Ashara Dayne's son. Varys could be smart enough to trick and confuse some of the smartest people in Westeros...Eddard, Tyrion, JonCon, Rhaegar, Aerys...he can lie and manipulate everyone...including Illyrio in my opinion...to see that whoever sits on the Iron Throne serves the people as best they can.

While I'm not sure I'd rate Jon Connington, Eddard and Aerys amongst the smartest people in Westeros, that's kind of besides the point.

Where exactly do the Blackfyres feature into this, and what exactly did Varys do that he's lying about? Oh, and also: why?!

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So...where do I start...

"Bittersteel was an angry man, and he never smiled. He was resentful all his life, and had a special loathing for his half brother Bloodraven and Mylessa Blackwood who was Bloodravens mother"

So...Bloodraven hated his brother Bittersteel and loved his brother Blackfyre...sounds right

"Lots of stuff happened at Harrenhal according to GRRM. Who Ashara slept with is probably one of the minor mysteries, though"

So... the main stuff is Lyanna Stark as the Knight of the Laughing Tree...Ashasra Dayne's story may be just as important if there is a second Stark child coming from Harrenhal...Brandon + Ashara = Aegon VI

The whole Blackfyre thing could...could...just be a red herring...Let's face it, not everything in ASOIAF is going to pay off and there has to be some red herrings in the series.

"Where in the book did you get the impression that Bloodraven cares about who rules the realm? He has been concerned with the struggle up north the whole time, and with whatever Bran saw when he looked into the heart of winter.

We do however know that Bloodraven was instrumental in stopping Daemon Blackfyre from becoming king back in the day. By killing him."

He killed the brother he loved...it was his duty...he was Lord commander of the Night's Watch, obviously not at the time he killed his brother, but he is a man of honor, a trait way to common and stupid amongst the North...Eddard had it, and yes, he was a Rivers, but he had Old God roots, and he was very honorable and dutiful. Bloodraven after oh...IDK...126 years of life...may have a different point of view on things like honor.

Bloodraven has said, as the three-eyed-crow, he has tried to talk to people as a greenseer throughout the years but has been unable...who is he trying to talk to. He seems desperate...

Littlefinger said "When you know what a man wants, you know how to control him." Paraphrase

Varys knows how to control Bloodraven...Varys is playing on the guilt Bloodraven has for killing the brother he loved by making him help him put an ancester of his on the Iron Throne...but it is not a real ancester.

MOST IMPORTANT: This has been established a lot throughout the entire series...there is not 1 plan, things change, and whatever ends up happening was not what was planned to happen. People are human and nothing can be fully predicted...no body is omnipadent...everyone is a piece or a player.

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I also want to admit that a more appropriate title for this thread would have been...

"Dragons United...Red or Black...a Dragon is a Dragon"

I believe that if there are any Fyres and any more Targs, they are working towards the same cause...getting Aegon to the Iron Throne.

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I checked, the Blackfyres are the house that descend from Daemon Blackfyre. Bloodraven fought against him...yet the 3 eyed crow said that he had a brother he loved and a brother he hated. He hated bittersteel...so he loved Blackfyre.

Pretty sure the brother he loved was Daeron II since he fought and killed for him.

As to your theory it makes little sense to the point i have to ask if english is your first language?

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You want to dismiss Barristan's thought that the child was stillborn, while using the other half of that sentence to construct a theory about Aerys being the father.

"The man" also seems like an awfully mundane descriptor for the king, coming from a knight of the Kingsguard.

I never dismissed Barristan's belief that Ashara killed herself after her miscarriage. As GRRM has stated time and again his chapters are human PoVs and not from an omnipotent first person perspective.

We also know that "baked into a pie" is one of the various ways that people die in ADWD.

The Freys and Manderly also shared scenes, we have no mention of Aerys and Ashara ever even being in the same room together (I'm sure they were once or twice, but it's never been explicitly mentioned).

You toss around known as carelessly and foolishly as a Dothraki woman. I already mentioned the only references to Frey pies. We KNOW about the Rat King because of the story Meera Reed told Bran. A reasonable assumption is a far cry from known. To top it off, in the next paragraph-by demanding I give you cannonical proof that Aerys and Ashara were ever in the same room together- you use the same twisting standards of proof you accuse me of doing.

As written in ADwD it is clear that Barristan knows who "dishonored" Ashara at Harrenhal, but GRRM chose not to write the chapter in a way that reveals who it was. A reasonable person would ask how would he know? There are two possibilities. First, someone else did it and she went to Aerys for redress and Barristan was on duty when she came to the king. If so why did nothing happen to the perpetrator? Surely the king would want to seek justice for a highborn maiden, especially one related to one of his kingsguard.

The second possibility is that his duties to guard the king allowed him to see the act and was forced by duty to helplessly stand by. She then turned to a Stark. Perhaps Brandon assumed that Rhaegar was just carrying on a family tradition when he ran off with Lyanna, so Brandon rushed off to King's Landing to see that Rhaegar die for his act.

Once again, it is not known, but there is plenty of contextual evidence to make this a strong possibility.

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I never dismissed Barristan's belief that Ashara killed herself after her miscarriage. As GRRM has stated time and again his chapters are human PoVs and not from an omnipotent first person perspective.

Not sure what you were arguing here then, as this whole thread seems to be about the idea that Ashara's child is somehow alive. I may have lost track of the various conspiracy theories, though.

You toss around known as carelessly and foolishly as a Dothraki woman. I already mentioned the only references to Frey pies. We KNOW about the Rat King because of the story Meera Reed told Bran. A reasonable assumption is a far cry from known.

I was referring to the fact that we have an out-of-story confirmation about the fact that somebody in ADWD ended up dead in a pie. I wouldn't know how many other pies are mentioned in the book, but given the overwhelming circumstantial evidence on top of that (including the Freys and Manderly appearing together), yes, the Frey Pies are as good as fact.

On the other hand, we do not have any scenes where Aerys and Ashara are definitely in the same place at the same time. There's simply a huge difference when it comes to the evidence (even without the aforementioned meta-knowledge, I might add).

As written in ADwD it is clear that Barristan knows who "dishonored" Ashara at Harrenhal, but GRRM chose not to write the chapter in a way that reveals who it was.

Not really. It's a reasonable assumption to make, but it's not 100% clear that he knows who's responsible. He knows she wasn't married and that she had a miscarriage (presumably this was reasonably well known), but we also have to consider cultural differences here: Ashara having sex out of wedlock may not be anywhere near as big a deal in Dorne as it would have been in most of the rest of the realm. That she was "dishonoured" is just Barristan's view (let's face it, he's a bit stuck up), she might have been perfectly fine with the whole affair (apart from the miscarriage, obviously). Until we know more, I wouldn't want to read much of anything into this, certainly not construct elaborate conspiracy theories involving Aerys.

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Now, my favorite theory is that Aegon VI is really the son of Ashara Dayne and possibily Brandon Stark. These theorys do not make sense if Aegon VI is not really a dragon. I don't feel that Varys is lying to Illyrio but I have 1 final theory about Aegon if he is a Dayne.

Dayne's have features similar to Targs. If Ashara is the mother of Aegon VI, anyone can be the father.

What proof is there to claim that Aegon is the child of Ashara??? yes, the Daynes have similar features with the Targaryens, but Ashara has dark hair. It doesn't matter that Arthur Dayen and Darkstar, have silver hair... she didn't; so a child between her and Brandon Stark or any other dark-haired man would also have dark hair. I guess you could say that because her brother, and maybe her parents had silver hair, Aegon might have also ... but I am not sure genetics work like that in GRRM world... and even so, if we only go by family traits, then he could as well be from any family from Lys, Volantis and even a Velaryon.

Anyway, I think any posts that claim that Varys and Ilyrio have in mind the best interests of Westeros, small folk, children, and even targaryens are wrong. They are both huge liars, con artists and I think we can assume almost everything we heard from them until now is a lie.

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What proof is there to claim that Aegon is the child of Ashara??? yes, the Daynes have similar features with the Targaryens, but Ashara has dark hair. It doesn't matter that Arthur Dayen and Darkstar, have silver hair... she didn't; so a child between her and Brandon Stark or any other dark-haired man would also have dark hair. I guess you could say that because her brother, and maybe her parents had silver hair, Aegon might have also ... but I am not sure genetics work like that in GRRM world... and even so, if we only go by family traits, then he could as well be from any family from Lys, Volantis and even a Velaryon.

Anyway, I think any posts that claim that Varys and Ilyrio have in mind the best interests of Westeros, small folk, children, and even targaryens are wrong. They are both huge liars, con artists and I think we can assume almost everything we heard from them until now is a lie.

Varys may not tell the complete truth, but he does not seem to tell any untruths. Even when Ned asked him if he would deliver a letter for him, he told him it depended upon the contents of the letter. So, labelling Varys a liar is inaccurate. There are bits of truth in everything Varys reveals.

Ashara and Elia seem to have become pregnant at the same time, at Harrenhal. There is a remembered stillborn daughter, and if it had been Elia's it is reasonable for the two girls, who are quite close, to arrange to swap the babies at birth. This is especially true if Elia knows that she cannot have any further pregnancies, since she will have failed to provide an heir for Rhaegar. Elia can then present Rhaegar with a male heir when he is told that she cannot have any further pregnancies.

I want to point out something that seems to be common on this thread that is fallacious. The term stillbirth is often used in distinction to live birth or miscarriage and the word miscarriage is oftentimes used incorrectly to describe stillbirths. Most stillbirths occur in full-term pregnancies.

As far as Aerys and Ashara being in the same place, we have Barristan remembering with misgivings that Aerys decided to attend Harrenhal and we know that Ashara was there. We know that Aerys lusted after Joanna, and that he was fond of raping. Aerys is at the very least as possible as Brandon for dishonoring Ashara. But, we need to add a stanza, here, if Ashara is dishonored wouldn't she seek redress through the king's justice? Of course she couldn't do that if it was the king that dishonored her.

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I quite like the idea of Ashara and Elia exchanging babies, for whatever reason.... so Varys would have indeed saved baby Aegon (even if he wasn't Rhaegar's), but this doesn't explain why Ashara's baby had silver hair...

As for Varys, that is exactly what con artists do, they mix a lot of truth in their lies.

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I quite like the idea of Ashara and Elia exchanging babies, for whatever reason.... so Varys would have indeed saved baby Aegon (even if he wasn't Rhaegar's), but this doesn't explain why Ashara's baby had silver hair...

As for Varys, that is exactly what con artists do, they mix a lot of truth in their lies.

That would be Littlefinger, mixing his lies with truth. He lies about the dagger, for instance. Varys while he may not tell the complete truth has never told an outright lie.

As far as Aegon having Targaryen looks, we have two candidates at Harrenhal to contribute to his looks by dishonoring Lady Ashara. Ser Barristan expresses a lot of regret that Aerys chose to attend. See my last paragraph. ;)

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I just want to say that Targs and Fyres are from the exact same bloodline.

Daemon is the son of Aegon the IV, Son of Viscerys II, and Daena the Defiant, Daughter of Aegon III.

Daeron II is most likely the son of Aemon the Dragonknight, Son of Viscerys II, and Queen Naerys, Daughter of Viscerys II.

So its all in the same generation of the same family with the same ancestors.

The war was fought cause Daemon loved Danaerys and Daeron married her to Maron Martell to seal the dornish alliance. People had been telling him he is the rightful heir to Aegon IV for 11 years before he rose up to seize the throne. After Daemon died the emnity was mainly between Bittersteel & Daemons remaining son VS Bloodraven. The two of them are only half brothers to Daeron and Daemon, So they dont count as Targs or Fyres.

SO Black or Red, a dragon is still a dragon means that its all the same heritage & anscentors and both are descened from Kings, Queens, Famous Warriors, Aegon the Conqueror, and The Blood of Old Valyria. You are reading to much into the text of the book without a thorough understanding of the lineages of the two houses.

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  • 1 year later...

Aegon is neither the son of Rhaegar nor the son of Ashara and Aerys. The son of Ashara he may be, the son of a random whore from Volantis or Lys he may be, the son of Ilyrio he may be, but you don't mistake a 21-21 year old for a 14-15 year old, that just doesn't happen. Tyrion thinks he is 14-15, maybe he is as old as 18, but a 21-22 year old has age lines on his face that is just a fact, and regardless of Tyrions opinion of Aegons appearance he does not act 21-22, he acts like a teenager just like Tyrion thought. 21-22 would be the real Aegons age, the son of Ashara and Aerys would be even older, 18 years from Roberts rebellion to the start of the book, 2 years from the start of the book to where we are now, Aegon was born before the rebellion even started, he may have been born even before the tourny at Harrenhall, I'm a little unclear on that. The son of Ashara and Aerys, if such a child exists would be 20.


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  • 2 weeks later...

Aegon is neither the son of Rhaegar nor the son of Ashara and Aerys. The son of Ashara he may be, the son of a random whore from Volantis or Lys he may be, the son of Ilyrio he may be, but you don't mistake a 21-21 year old for a 14-15 year old, that just doesn't happen. Tyrion thinks he is 14-15, maybe he is as old as 18, but a 21-22 year old has age lines on his face that is just a fact, and regardless of Tyrions opinion of Aegons appearance he does not act 21-22, he acts like a teenager just like Tyrion thought. 21-22 would be the real Aegons age, the son of Ashara and Aerys would be even older, 18 years from Roberts rebellion to the start of the book, 2 years from the start of the book to where we are now, Aegon was born before the rebellion even started, he may have been born even before the tourny at Harrenhall, I'm a little unclear on that. The son of Ashara and Aerys, if such a child exists would be 20.

Fifteen or sixteen, actually, is what I believe Tyrion said, and Aegon wouldn't be 20-21 anyway. He wasn't born at the time of Harrenhal, he was a baby when KL was sacked - a year or so old at most. Rhaegar didn't need another mother for his third prophecy baby until after Aegon's birth when they learned Elia would not have any more kids. In some ways it was Aegon being born that set Rhaegar off after Lyanna, which started the dominoes that led to war, and iirc that was about a year post-Harrenhal give or take a couple months. At most he would be eighteen by now, probably seventeen. And tbh can you necessarily tell the difference between a fifteen year old and a seventeen year old?

That said, while I personally would prefer Blue Aegon to be real, I acknowledge he might well not be - he could be a non-Targ of any kind, he could be a Blackfyre, he could be of Aerion Brightflame's line, hell, he could be a Blackfyre/Brightflame which would be pretty cool in my mind because Blackfyre/Brightflame merging in exile is my new favorite idea.

But do you really think Varys and Illyrio would be stupid enough to pick a fake who can't pass because his age is that drastically off?

Not to mention, your timeline is off in terms of Rebellion -> AGoT - it's been fifteen years since the Rebellion in the books, not eighteen.

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And tbh can you necessarily tell the difference between a fifteen year old and a seventeen year old?

That said, while I personally would prefer Blue Aegon to be real, I acknowledge he might well not be - he could be a non-Targ of any kind, he could be a Blackfyre, he could be of Aerion Brightflame's line, hell, he could be a Blackfyre/Brightflame which would be pretty cool in my mind because Blackfyre/Brightflame merging in exile is my new favorite idea.

Not to mention, your timeline is off in terms of Rebellion -> AGoT - it's been fifteen years since the Rebellion in the books, not eighteen.

The last part there is the only part of your post that really has any baring on mine. I misremembered the timeline there, 15 years instead of 18 so the age works a lot better. tbh, yes as a 23 year old who worked at a gas station in college id'ing people from alcohol and cigarettes, I believe I could tell but thats not something I am saying has to be translated into the story. I too like the brightflame blackfyre theory, its neat and ties in both Varys and Ilyrio. But even if you say 15 years from the start of the rebellion to the start of agot, you have 15 years+2 years of story time+ a year at least of Aegon being alive before "being killed". So 18 years old when Tyrion said he looked 14-15.

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