What if Renly hadn't died?

[OberynBlackfyre]

In all honesty I feel that he would have died later anyhow. Outsmarted by a foe and die through backstabbing trickery, either via someone like Tywin or Varys/LF, face another assasination, or make a flashy mistake like getting himself killed while trying to lead a battle on horseback.

He was pretty, witty and a good talker, but don't think he was entirely wise or mature, nor entirely aware of the realities of war and gamemanship since he had a bout of self overestimation. Could see him getting tricked or succumbed through other means in the long run.

He would put up a good fight for a little while, have successes and make a short term difference in the plot, but otherwise he would likely fall nevertheless.

This I agree with entirely haha. He was like a less skilled Robb Stark. I made a comment once that Renly was "born to be assassinated", and I kinda stick by that statement.

"Hey, that pretty guy has a lot of power..and swords...and riches. I bet I can kill him and take it."

[Jon Mark Selmy]

I agree that

I like to think that GRRM has specific reasoning for the people he kills within the series. But mostly, I don't think the series would have had THAT much of a greater twist or change in story if people like Ned, or possibly even Robb or Ygritte and such would have lived. Don't get me wrong the story would have been different, I just don't think it would have been EVERYTHING IS CHANGED OMG different.

Agreed.

As for your answer:

- Stannis keep to his castle (he wouldn't go out of it to fight Renly without a plan, he is a seasoned commander and a smart men), but still waits the correct moment to make his claim to the throne.

- Renly goes to King's Landing and kills Cersei, Joffrey, Tyrion and most of the court because he didn't even had to preocupy with Stannis. Tommen and Myrcella are kept close, as wards under the condition of bastards and have no political relevance whatsoever.

- Tywin sees he is screwed and politically isolated. So he goes back to Casterly Rock and bends the knee, but still plots a way to get his revenge.

- Robb is grateful for Renly's justice, but it is too late to "uncrown" himself, so he goes back to Winterfell, killing Theon on the process, but keeps Jaime as a captive. He never goes west, so no Red Wedding and he probably marries the Frey girl on his way home.

- The ironborn are screwed again, but Euron still kills his brother and still plans to marry Danny.

- The independant kingdoms of the North and Riverlands start to negociate peace, because even if Renly has the numbers, he has no disposition to make war against the North: it is far away and winter is coming! Sansa is sent home (though Arya is still lost) for a rich ransom.

- Stannis, Tywin and Doran, though unhappy, have to endure more Baratheonl rule, only with Tyrell without Lannister as the other power broker.

- A treat is made between Renly, the king on the Iron Throne and Robb, the king in the north. They promise to marry Robb's first female child to Renly's first male child uniting the 7 kingdoms again, but the North gains even more autonomy in the process.

[Minstral]

- Robb is grateful for Renly's justice, but it is too late to "uncrown" himself, so he goes back to Winterfell, killing Theon on the process, but keeps Jaime as a captive. He never goes west, so no Red Wedding and he probably marries the Frey girl on his way home.

He was already marching west when he sent his mother to negotiate though.

[Jon Mark Selmy]

He was already marching west when he sent his mother to negotiate though.

Yes, but Renly wouldn't have marched to fight Stannis, he would have marched directly to King's Landing, so the time frame would be different and he would arrive there sooner than Stannis did on the actual timeline. So I'd assume that Robb wouldn't have had time to meet Jeyne.

[Minstral]

Yes, but Renly wouldn't have marched to fight Stannis, he would have marched directly to King's Landing, so the time frame would be different and he would arrive there sooner than Stannis did on the actual timeline. So I'd assume that Robb wouldn't have had time to meet Jeyne.

This is off topic, so I'll be quick. After Robb found himself in the Westerlands through his "secret" passage he is not able to easily to go back because the forces at the Golden tooth Are more alert. Crossing that goat trail back if they are discovered makes them extremely vulnerable. He is actually just as likely to go North through the strip of coastline that the Crag is found.

[Loon Lord]

I think that If Renly beats Stannis is the field (not too difficult as long as he gives the main command to Randyll Tarly) and then the Dornish join his cause once he is almost a sure winner. He marches on King's Landing and wins, killing Cersei, Tywin and Joffrey in the process. At this point the ironmen have invaded the north and Robb sees that he is surrounded on both sides and he agrees to hang up his crown as long as Renly helps him retake the north. This is successful, Renly is king of all of Westeros and Robb is warden of the north, although I don't know what Renly does with the Westerlands.

[James Arryn]

None of Crecy, Agincourt, Poitiers etc. occurred with an armed enemy force to the rear of the English.

That changes everything. And I mean, that takes what were considered incredible victories against the odds and makes them twice as unlikely, or more. It takes the one advantage th English had in those battles...the ability to entrentch and dictate position...and turns it against them. They are where they ae because of the SE force. They're already a small force; if they try and deploy to the front, the SE force can take them in the rear. If theytry to account for that, the forces to the front have an even greater advantage and don't have to worry about too much entrenchment, etc.

Renly wins, fairly easily. Sannis was caught in a trap.

[Minstral]

I think that If Renly beats Stannis is the field (not too difficult as long as he gives the main command to Randyll Tarly) and then the Dornish join his cause once he is almost a sure winner. He marches on King's Landing and wins, killing Cersei, Tywin and Joffrey in the process. At this point the ironmen have invaded the north and Robb sees that he is surrounded on both sides and he agrees to hang up his crown as long as Renly helps him retake the north. This is successful, Renly is king of all of Westeros and Robb is warden of the north, although I don't know what Renly does with the Westerlands.

That is assuming that Dorne would risk bloodying itself to seat a Baratheon on the throne, which the very obviously do not. Tyrion points out this fact when he comes up with the idea for a marriage alliance with the Martell's, telling Cersei that Renly took the allegiance of Dorne for granted. Moreover, Renly gave the command to Loras rather than Tarly.

[Minstral]

None of Crecy, Agincourt, Poitiers etc. occurred with an armed enemy force to the rear of the English.

That changes everything. And I mean, that takes what were considered incredible victories against the odds and makes them twice as unlikely, or more. It takes the one advantage th English had in those battles...the ability to entrentch and dictate position...and turns it against them. They are where they ae because of the SE force. They're already a small force; if they try and deploy to the front, the SE force can take them in the rear. If theytry to account for that, the forces to the front have an even greater advantage and don't have to worry about too much entrenchment, etc.

Renly wins, fairly easily. Sannis was caught in a trap.

How was he caught in a trap when he put himself there to provoke Renly to meet him at Storm's End.

Yes the garrison is a factor to play out in the battle as well if they choose to sally (which they would likely do under Penrose), but to assault the rear of Stannis's forces he is just as likely needing to overcome the defensive structures (IE pits and wooden stakes), that any commander puts in place when besieging a castle. I am not saying that the odds didn't look to be in favor of Renly, but I do caution saying that a situation that never occurred would be a forgone conclusion.

[James Arryn]

...but I do caution saying that a situation that never occurred would be a forgone conclusion.

Okay. So, prime Arthur Dayne vs. Hot Pie.

?

[Minstral]

Okay. So, prime Arthur Dayne vs. Hot Pie.

?

Or Jaime chained and malnourished for a year vs Brienne? Maybe Hot Pie is the leader of the Decepticons and is really in disguise .

You can say that something is a forgone conclusion all you like, I just don't share that view.

[James Arryn]

Or Jaime chained and malnourished for a year vs Brienne?

The qualifiers there would all lead towards the mean.

Maybe Hot Pie is the leader of the Decepticons and is really in disguise .

You can say that something is a forgone conclusion all you like, I just don't share that view.

Okay, I guess we'll fle it under that. None of this actually happened, though. It's all the product of one man's imagination. So you are drawing an arbitrary line in the sand, imo. But as you aid, YMMV.

[Minstral]

The qualifiers there would all lead towards the mean.

Okay, I guess we'll fle it under that. None of this actually happened, though. It's all the product of one man's imagination. So you are drawing an arbitrary line in the sand, imo. But as you aid, YMMV.

I don't mean in the way of authorial intent, and I am not drawing an arbitrary line in the sand that you seem to think I am. I don't share the belief that the future can be said to be a forgone conclusion when Renly was in his tent and finalizing his plans for battle.

The J vs B is essentially many factors play out and don't make things even. The Hot Pie comment on my part was me trying to be funny when you said "prime Arthur Dayne". Even though I know you did not mean it, it made me think of Dayne as a "Robot in disguise", which I found humorous.

[Jon Mark Selmy]

This is off topic, so I'll be quick. After Robb found himself in the Westerlands through his "secret" passage he is not able to easily to go back because the forces at the Golden tooth Are more alert. Crossing that goat trail back if they are discovered makes them extremely vulnerable. He is actually just as likely to go North through the strip of coastline that the Crag is found.

It makes sense. Well, even if Robb ended up marrying Jeyne, we can assume the Boltons and Freys would be much more cautious of betraying him if there were no King's Landing standing.

[Djinn]

Renly defeats Stannis or at least forces him to retreat to DS. Renly besieges KL. Tyrion devises another way to deliver the Wildfire to Renly's army, and Tywin hit it's rear crushing it. There's nothing to indicate that Renly's army wouldn't be devastated by the Tyrion-Tywin combo. Robb's carries on to RW. Renly wouldn't handle a defeat so well. Support colapses.

[OberynBlackfyre]

Renly defeats Stannis or at least forces him to retreat to DS. Renly besieges KL. Tyrion devises another way to deliver the Wildfire to Renly's army, and Tywin hit it's rear crushing it. There's nothing to indicate that Renly's army wouldn't be devastated by the Tyrion-Tywin combo. Robb's carries on to RW. Renly wouldn't handle a defeat so well. Support colapses.

I don't this would have played out only because Tywins forces were MUCH bolstered due to the support of the Tyrells...the support that would have been given to Renly while he was sieging KL. I do see Tywin attacking from the rear, and while Renly is fighting enemy on both sides, Stannis might see that as his time to strike and wipe them all from the field.

Robb Stark might follow Tywin as he "retreats" south as well, while means he would attack Tywin from behind, while Tywin is attacking Renly from behind. The War of Five kings culminating in the Battle of Kings Landing AKA The Battle of the Throne

[The Frosted King]

Tywin wouldnt march against Renly with his paltry twenty thousand.

Against one hundred thousand?

Never.

[James Arryn]

I don't see Renly being attacked from the rear at all. Part of his point in the slow pace he was taking was to make the eneies exhaust themselves first. Couple that with his popularity and contro over food for KL, and he might even take it with no fight at all. But if he needed to he would either force a conflict with Tywin beforehan, or use his huge numerical advantage to block Tywin's access to his rear.

The degree to which he saw Stannis' strategic error in being caught in that situation should probably tell us about his thoughts on besieging with an enemy in the field.

[OberynBlackfyre]

Tywin wouldnt march against Renly with his paltry twenty thousand.

Against one hundred thousand?

Never.

Perhaps Tywin would have rethought the offer of an alliance from Balon Greyjoy? He could have also practically forced Dorne to act as well.

[OberynBlackfyre]

I don't see Renly being attacked from the rear at all. Part of his point in the slow pace he was taking was to make the eneies exhaust themselves first. Couple that with his popularity and contro over food for KL, and he might even take it with no fight at all. But if he needed to he would either force a conflict with Tywin beforehan, or use his huge numerical advantage to block Tywin's access to his rear.

The degree to which he saw Stannis' strategic error in being caught in that situation should probably tell us about his thoughts on besieging with an enemy in the field.

I do not credit Renly with any of the small "military" victories he had. He showed that he thought the greater numbers ensured victory, that was all we ever saw of his "strategy". Regardless of numbers, Tywin or Stannis would have destroyed him eventually