What if Renly hadn't died?

[Guardian of the Lhazareen]

a lot of people asume that just because Stannis felt power was his by right means he doesn't want power. IMO the two are very compatable with each other, he desires power but also feels it is owed to him, clearly he wants power or he wouldn't have crumbled so much at not being given storms end or position of hand of king

[SirPeter]

If Stannis died at SE I am very sure his fleet will have defected to Renly !

I don't know. Stannis was Master of Ships what gave him the ships in the first place, not Renly. Why should they defect to Renly ?

[Guardian of the Lhazareen]

I don't know. Stannis was Master of Ships what gave him the ships in the first place, not Renly. Why should they defect to Renly ?

well if they were Stannis's men to begin with then they would propably believe the whole twincest think (this is just speculation) so in their eyes renly would be their next king. but I guess the main reason would be Renly has a big ass army and complete contol of the south so throwing in your lot with him seems the best idea. even more so as all the other candidates are prety poor options atm!!

[littleRickon]

Well i think its still supremely simple for Renly to take KL. The Royal Fleet patrols the BW Bay and i imagine a small way up the river. Renly can easily go west a bit, accross the Blackwater Rush and invest the city from Land. Im pretty sure he could take it with his first assault. There are six gates assaultable by land. 10000 at each gate and i dont think 7000 defenders can do anything about it. Alternatively he can just kick back and the city will win itself. They can be resupplied by sea but where will they get the food? And enough for over 400000 people? The city would implode in weeks if not days. Its more likely for Stannis to defeat Renly at SE then Renly not taking KL.

Redwyne fleet was at home as Cersei had both Paxters sons as guests

I agree that's a reasonable assumption, and it might have gone that way. My point was that it becomes almost impossible to predict the course of the war from the point onwards, where Renly most likely beats Stannis, which in itself might not necessarily be the only outcome, or Renly might win but lose the respect of his followers over heavy losses against a smaller force...

Yet, as he liekly has no navy (they would be fleeing with whoever survived the battle on Stannis' side, he cannot do a blackwater attack, Tyrion can't pull a wildfire stunt, etc. Too many ripples for me to do a reliable projection. I agree with your idea that Renly will continue to move slowly. He seemed very pleased with the idea of Stark and Lannister taking each other out. Also, KL is starving with him blocking the Roseroad, so he is effectively already laying siege. With that slow pace, most likely the next battles are between Tywin and Robb. And without the blackwater disaster, Robb's cause may look a lot less hopeless to Roose Bolton, so that he might not be as willing to jump into the Lion's bed. Ripples everywhere.

In the end, Renly (or better: Randyll Tarly) might view it as too dangerous to attack KL with an intact enemy army in the field (something Stannis clearly overlooked) and engage Tywin, who would be in dire straits between two enemies.

All in all, I see Renly surviving as benefiting Robb most likely, but who is to say that Tywin cannot come up with a master plan or treachery to screw them up anyways...?

Also I like the idea that Renly had painted a big target on his coat for all kinds of assassins, maybe if the shadow hadn't got him, someone else would?

Thx also for clearing up where the Redwyne fleet was!

[Alester Florent]

Had Renly lived it would probably have changed everything, although it wouldn't necessarily have tied up neatly.

First of all, we have to assume that he'd have defeated Stannis, and probably killed him. I don't get the impression that he was particularly keen to kill Stannis, but I can't see Stannis surrendering. Even if it's an expensive victory, Stannis has so few troops that Renly would likely just roll over him.

The Lannisters are now in serious trouble. Renly's enormous army should easily be able to overwhelm the few defenders of Kings Landing, assuming they even assault it and don't just starve the garrison out. Tywin has to pull his army back from the campaign to defend the capital, as per Robb's original plan. This allows the northern armies to reoccupy the eastern Riverlands and open up a route to both the Vale and the capital.

The Lannisters at this point will be casting around desperately for allies, and not finding many. Dorne is unlikely to help; the Vale isn't lifting a finger for them unless LF can work some serious magic; but they might be able to find common ground with the Greyjoys, getting them to attack the Shield Islands and draw some of Renly's army back down south to defend the Reach. LF knows what side his bread's buttered, too, and it's unlikely he's going to do much to get the Vale onside; even with the Vale troops and even assuming he could (which given the Vale knights hate the Lannisters and want to join Robb isn't a gimme) it might well not be enough to save the Lannisters anyway.

There's also the question of the relationship between Robb and Renly. Each of them seems to want an alliance with the other but Renly wants homage from Robb and Robb wants independence, which makes that prickly. They might be able to come to a compromise. Perhaps Robb is a free king of the North but pays homage to Renly for his overlordship of the Riverlands. They should be able to reach some terms, but there's no guarantee.

If Robb hasn't agreed a full alliance with Renly by this point, the Lannisters might look rather more closely at Robb's peace terms. With Kings Landing directly threatened and near-certain to fall, and with Renly having presumably added the Dragonstone fleet to the already considerably navy of the Reach, they're in dire trouble. Robb has offered them a chance at peace, and while his terms are hard to swallow they might feel they don't have a choice.

The best hope for the Lannisters is probably to make peace with Robb, securing his neutrality and the return of Jaime, forming an alliance with the Greyjoys and ensuring at least the neutrality of the Vale and Dorne. If they don't manage all of this, then they're screwed. Renly alone has the muscle to take Kings Landing, and there's no way Joffrey or Cersei are getting out of there alive. Even if they do accomplish all of that the odds are against them. They're reliant on Renly making a mistake or having to disperse his troops for winter before they do, or before the city rises in revolt. The most likely outcome is that Renly takes the capital.

If Robb can agree terms with Renly, there's no reason for the Vale and Dorne not to follow suit. The Westerlands by this point would be crippled, and any remaining resistance not too difficult to polish off, so their recalcitrance isn't too much of a problem. A victory in the south for Robb, and terms agreed with Renly, would give Roose Bolton less reason to launch the Red Wedding, especially with Tywin now in no position to reward him or the Freys for doing so. It's possible the Freys might still try something but it looks less likely without the Boltons to protect them. So Robb might be able to return to the north and recapture Winterfell etc.

However, with Stannis gone, the battle at the Wall might be lost, unless Robb gets the message in time and sends troops to help Jon out. This means wildlings will be spilling into the north and causing all sorts of problems for Robb, and with Jon's probably having died in the process.

What happens in Kings Landing - well, who knows? Maybe Varys kills Renly to create a power vacuum ready for Aegon's arrival, but it would take something unpredictable and out of left field to upset things at this point. This is, essentially, why Renly had to die. He was the most powerful of the claimant kings, and unless he was eliminated through cheating, the war would likely have been rather more straightforward.

[ab aeterno]

a lot of people asume that just because Stannis felt power was his by right means he doesn't want power. IMO the two are very compatable with each other, he desires power but also feels it is owed to him, clearly he wants power or he wouldn't have crumbled so much at not being given storms end or position of hand of king

The difference being that Stannis believes that this power is owed to him legally, (and he is correct, according to the laws of Westeros at the time of Robert's death, and if he wasn't legally next in line he wouldn't pursue the throne.

[Guardian of the Lhazareen]

The difference being that Stannis believes that this power is owed to him legally, (and he is correct, according to the laws of Westeros at the time of Robert's death, and if he wasn't legally next in line he wouldn't pursue the throne.

your compleatly right but my point was that there are too many fan boys out their saying how stannis doesn't want power, when in reality i think he kinda does

[ab aeterno]

your compleatly right but my point was that there are too many fan boys out their saying how stannis doesn't want power, when in reality i think he kinda does

Fair enough. :)