Varys the Mastermind/ Littlefinger the Golddigger: A Comparison

[tze]

One thing that's always struck me is how Petyr Baelish came to be fostered at Riverrun: GRRM said that Littlefinger's father befriended Hoster Tully during the War of the Ninepenny Kings, and leveraged that friendship into getting Hoster to foster Petyr at Riverrun. We're told that his great-grandfather was a sellsword, his grandfather was a landless hedge knight, and apparently his father fought well enough in the War of the Ninepenny Kings that he befriended someone like Hoster Tully (and somehow became an actual lord, not just a landed knight)---it sounds like House Baelish tended to have a strong martial tradition, and it sounds like, from the little we know about him, Littlefinger's father in particular was able to increase the family's social and financial situation quite a bit (though clearly not as high as Littlefinger wanted). Whether he was also good at scheming we don't know, but the fact that he was actually fighting in the War of the Ninepenny Kings seems to indicate that Littlefinger's father was a warrior in ways Littlefinger is not.

Littlefinger, unlike his father/grandfather/great-grandfather, is no fighter as of AGOT---but in the past he reacted to Catelyn's betrothal by challenging Brandon to a duel. Given that his male ancestors have been described as various categories of warriors, then I'd be curious to see what sort of relationship Littlefinger had with his own father, and whether his decision to challenge Brandon was subconsciously meant in some way to "prove" himself to his father. (Admittedly, our info on Petyr's dad is extremely slim, but especially given Littlefinger's weird desire to serve as a pseudo-father to Sansa, Littlefinger's relationship with his own father might turn out to be psychologically relevant.) I don't think we've ever been told Littlefinger squired for anyone while at Riverrun (and at 15, he should have been a squire had he shown any martial capability), and we're told he wore little armor during his duel with Brandon, which could indicate that he was unaccustomed to wearing full armor. We're never told when his father died (was he perhaps still alive when Littlefinger was expelled from Riverrun?), but I wonder if martial capability (and Littlefinger's lack thereof) was perhaps a source of conflict between them. If Littlefinger's father considered him a failure (somewhat like Randyll's reaction to Sam), and Littlefinger's scheming has been him subconsciously trying to Show Up Dad by using his brain to achieve more than his father could ever achieve by strength of arms alone, then I think his actions and goals start coming into a different form of focus.

Rather than just taking on a mutated personal sigil (as did Maekar Targaryen, Brynden Tully, Little and Big Walder, etc.), Littlefinger changed his House sigil entirely. It's true that Littlefinger, unlike Maekar/Brynden/etc., was the head of his House when he changed his sigil, but given Westeros's absolute obsession with sigils, that strikes me as thing fraught with meaning. (Especially as I can't remember any other House ever changing its actual sigil---offshoots, yes, but not the main branch.) Not just in the sense of Littlefinger changing the House sigil into such a drastically different form, but also in the sense of Petyr trying to literally erase something associated with his father/grandfather/great-grandfather and mold it, and by extension the House, in his own image. Littlefinger seems like he doesn't technically want to "raise up" House Baelish, he wants to escape it---he doesn't try to add onto his lands on the Fingers, he tries to obtain lands far away from the Fingers. He basically tries to distance himself from every single possible trapping of his father/grandfather/great-grandfather, and I don't think that's solely due to shame at the House's low status (though that's certainly part of it)---it might very well be that Littlefinger had personal conflicts with the men in his family and is trying to symbolically escape from his family as much as from his family's social status.

(As a side note, Littlefinger's great-grandfather came to the Vale because he was being paid by Lord Corbray, and it might not be coincidental that Littlefinger chose to pay Lynn Corbray to manipulate the Lords Declarant into permitting him to remain Sweetrobin's regent. Nor that Littlefinger chooses to pretend that Sansa, daughter of the oldest ruling House in Westeros, is not just a bastard, but a bastard from Braavos, given his own family's Braavosi origin.)

And it's interesting to me that House Baelish is an actual lordly House---they're lowly lords, but they still rank (more or less) above a House of mere landed knights. Going from a sellsword to a lordship in two generations is unusual (outside of special situations like Cersei's offer of lordship in exchange for Tyrion, or Bronn's lordship acquired via marriage, or Stannis's extreme man-love for Davos). The founder of House Clegane, Sandor and Gregor's grandfather, saved Tytos Lannister's life, yet only became a landed knight; the same for Davos when he saved the garrison at Storm's End. So what did Petyr's father, the son of a landless hedge knight, do to achieve lordship? (And given that he was supposedly friends with Hoster Tully, but not Jon Arryn, was it relevant that his lordship came via lands in the Vale instead of the Riverlands?)

[redviper9]

The Defiance of Duskendale is usually taken as Aerys’ turning point of sanity, and used as “proof” that Varys is pro-Targ since he was supposedly not responsible for the most significant blow to Aerys’ sanity. It might be worth noting that in aFFC’s Brienne chapter, we learn that the people blame Lady Serala, Lord Denys’ Myrish wife, for the defiance: “The Lace Serpent filled her husband’s ear with Myrish poison, they say, until Lord Denys rose against his king and took him captive.” It may mean nothing that Serala (which sounds suspiciously close to Serra, Illyrio’s wife) is from Myr, where Varys had lived much of his life, and that she is held responsible for the defiance, but I thought this connection deserved mention.

This could also be coincidental, but it might be worthwhile to note that Taena Merryweather is also from Myr. She of course grew extremely close to Cersei in AFfC, and the beginning of their relationship was Taena slipping Cersei "dirt" on Margaery (a parallel could be drawn to Varys warning Aerys about Rhaegar's supposed true intentions for the Tourney of Harrenhal, which seems to have sped up Aerys's descent into madness). Taena then subtly encourages Cersei's rampage.

I'm not suggesting that Taena is working for Varys (I can't recall any evidence that links them in the text, other than both of them being from Essos). But there are interesting parallels: the mysterious Essosi who quickly gain the confidence of the ruling Westerosi monarch/regent with "inside information," information that probably ended up doing more harm than good. (And sorry for the Taena tangent; her being Myrish just came to mind when I read your mention of Denys Darklyn's wife).

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

<snip>

Your point about the sigil reminds me of the Ghost of High Heart's prophecy about Sansa slaying "the savage giant" in the snow castle (which seems to point to either the Eyrie or Winterfell). A lot of people, including me, interpret this as Sansa engineering Littlefinger's demise, based on the original Baelish sigil.

If that holds true, it's almost like prophecy is telling Baelish, "You can't run from your roots, we know what you really are." In other words, he can change his sigil and distance himself from his "lowly" roots, but they will catch up to him — in the manner of his death, he's associated with the sigil he tried to escape.

[butterbumps!]

Here's my thoughts on their endgames as I understand them. Apologies for the long post, but it's a very dense comparison.

Endgame

Disclaimer: I acknowledge that we’re only on book 5 of the series, so even the most solid theories about endgames are just that—theories. Still, I think there’s sufficient evidence in the text to put together a case for both character’s motivations at this point.

For clarity, I’m going to try to keep what is “known” clearly indicated separately from anything “speculative.”

LF

I think that LF’s motivation is a lot simpler than Varys’. Simply put, LF enjoys the game, and the game itself is the point. Strictly speaking, I do not believe that LF desires titles, gold or even Sansa. I will argue that revenge is somewhat tangential to his operations. His petty “vengeance” comes through in his personality, but I don’t believe that he’s on a self-righteous mission to correct all of the supposed slights against him.

This is not to say that LF does not crave power; he does for a certainty. But it’s not power as conventionally defined in Westeros—he’s not after a certain title or position, but rather the power that comes from manipulating people to do things they may not ordinarily do. Now, what’s important to note is that I don’t believe the point of these manipulations are meant to tangibly benefit LF directly as its own reward. The benefits he receives from his manipulations, such as Harrenhal, for example, are not “prizes” as such, but capital he builds to enable his continuing the game—to combine analogies, it’s like putting a hotel on Boardwalk Ave for greater leverage while upping the ante for greater risk.

And I believe that his manipulations do not even have to raise his position or leverage, necessarily. I think that what LF truly craves is simply the thrill of outsmarting people; this is his true “prize.”

LF just wants to be the last man standing: “A fool I may be, Stark…yet I’m still here, while your brother has been moldering in his frozen grave for some fourteen years now.” Though this is an off-hand remark (said to Ned), and part of an exchange full of petty insolence, I think there’s more exposed here than might immediately come across. LF defines the “winner” of his game as the one who survives to the end. The big difference between this, and say, the Lannisters’ “win or die” goes back to LF’s desire to just play the game in its own right. Rather than establish visible power, I believe that LF would just start the game over should he, by some joke of the gods, actually end up as the last man standing.

The way LF goes about being the “last man standing” is by destroying everyone and everything he can. I want to expand on this more when I get into his MO fully, but I think it’s important to note that a fast implosion of people and alliances are the method by which LF operates. It’s both an end and a means. The following is a brief list of plots that LF has been a part of, all of which is geared toward a fast implosion: (to prevent the post from becoming indecently long, I am using spoiler tags for this list)

• LF is the one character who wants immediate chaos to unfold in Westeros.
  
• LF was tipped off about the incest by Varys, I am almost positive. LF took the information to Jon Arryn, who brought it to Stannis’ attention.
  
• LF put Lysa up to poisoning Jon Arryn.
  
• LF put Lysa up to sending Cat the coded letter, planting the notion of the guilt of the Lannisters.
  
• LF lost the dagger to Robert by betting on Jaime at the tourney prior to the start of the novel. When it reappeared with Cat, he claimed it as his, but said he lost it to Tyrion who had bet against Jaime on Loras that day, further ripening the seeds he planted in Lysa’s letter.
  
• LF plants the idea to Ned that he should investigate Cersei’s killing Robert’s bastards at Casterly Rock, shortly before Ned has figured out the incest. LF is trying to get him to suspect a massive Lannister coverup with regard to the bastards, in order to further the antagonism between the Houses, and to speed up Ned in his investigation.
  
• Once Ned figures out the incest, LF urges him to keep Joffrey in place and rule as regent; to keep the incest a secret. He suggests that they rule together with Joffrey, crush Stannis, and in 4 years, reevaluate the situation, potentially revealing the secret then and placing Renly on the throne. LF claims it is to keep peace in the realm, as having Stannis for king would bring war; I suggest that the real reason is LF’s first objection: “He’ll give us a new Hand and a new council, for a certainty.” LF’s path of destruction would be set back somewhat if he were no longer part of the small council. He makes this offer to Ned, which would keep Ned in place as Lord Protector, because by this point Ned has made him a confidante of sorts; Ned listens to LF given the Cat connection. LF’s influence would be boundless.
  
• When Ned refuses, LF sets out to get rid of him. It is heavily suggested (by Varys, admittedly) that LF put the notion of killing Ned in Joffrey’s ear, thereby instigating irreparable conflict. It’s also good to note that Janos Slynt is his man.
  
• He takes Jeyne Poole and trains her as a whore; she is also whipped brutally, as per the lash marks we see in DwD.
  
• LF was “bested” by Tyrion, when Tyrion sought to weed out the rats in the council with his Pycelle-Varys-LF alliance scheme. LF was extremely insulted by this, and I believe that this is what prompted LF to bring down Tyrion somehow.
  
• Shortly after this, he weaseled his way into being sent to the Tyrell party after Renly is killed in order to forge an alliance on behalf of the Lannisters. This is probably when he sold the Purple Wedding plan, which has the nice bonus of getting back at Tyrion.
  
• He was rewarded with Harrenhal for his troubles.
  
• He has several key informants on his payroll, including the Kettleblack brothers and Ser Dontos, who is now a court jester.
  
• Dontos tells LF about the Tyrell plan to marry Sansa to Willas, and LF in turn tells the Lannisters. They hastily marry her to Tyrion to thwart this.
  
• Before Sansa is married to Tyrion, however, LF asks Cersei to marry Sansa instead. This could be his motivation behind informing the Lannisters about the Tyrell plot; perhaps he had hoped for this in return.
  
• Tywin sends LF to the Vale to unite with the Lannister cause through marriage to Lysa.
  
• He arranges jousting dwarfs at Joff’s wedding to instigate Tyrion, plants Sansa’s poisoned hairnet, and claims Joff’s poisoning was a joint venture between himself and the Tyrells; Tyrion was intended to be blamed for the regicide, and fortuitously, it appeared that LF was long gone from KL by this point and is under no suspicion. Dontos is killed as a means of covering tracks.
  
• He marries Lysa back at the Fingers despite wanting to do this in full view of the lords of the Eyrie for added legitimacy. Lysa, unable to control herself, insists they do so immediately.
  
• Back at the Eyrie, he kisses Sansa, knowing full well that Lysa is watching. This of course instigates Lysa to lash out at Sansa. LF enters “just in time” to calm Lysa, who is damn close to expelling Sansa out the Moon Door. Of course, this was all a setup to build trust in Sansa; Lysa appeared a hostile enemy of Sansa, but sweet LF could save the day and be her hero, while getting rid of the impediment of Lysa. Once again, another party takes the blame, in this case, the singer Marillon.
  
• LF sets himself up as Lord Protector. The other Lords do not approve at first. Lyn Corbray (of the same Corbrays who established his great-grandfather) fortuitously makes a physical threat on LF at the meeting, which offers an opening for LF to request a “trial period.” Of course, this was a ruse, as Lyn Corbray is LF’s creature, placated by boys and gold (small aside, Sweet Robin has an extremely strong reaction to being told that Lyn was to come to the Eyrie…hmm).
  
• He tells Sansa that he will marry her to Harry the Heir, the alleged heir of the Eyrie should Sweet Robin become “unavailable,” and tells her that giving her the North is part of his grand plan.

  
  

LF rejected the sigil of his grandfather- the Titan of Braavos- in favor of the Mockingbird: silver on a field of green. The mockingbird is of similar intelligence to crows and ravens; whereas crows and ravens have the ability to mimic human speech, mockingbirds are able to imitate the sounds of countless birds and insects. They are con-artists to this end by their very nature, and it stands to reason that this is precisely why LF chose them as his sigil. No one suspects the little bird that throws its voice in disguised tones, thereby casting suspicion on everyone but himself. I don’t believe this speaks exclusively to his MO, but rather his endgame as well, given that this is how he’s constructed his image.

Varys:

Varys’ motives are far more mysterious than LF’s so I’m going to work backward slightly by putting forth what other characters have understood Vary’s endgame to be. In short, I do not believe that Aegon is Rhaegar’s son. I do not believe that Varys or Illyrio are working for Targ ends. While I do believe that Illyrio’s goal is to get Aegon on the Iron Throne, I do not believe that this is Varys’ ultimately.

This is what the Golden Company knows of Illyrio’s plan, according to Tristan Rivers: “First Viserys Targaryen was to join us with fifty thousand screamers at his back. Then the Beggar King was dead, and it was to be the sister, a pliable young child queen who was on her way to Pentos with three new-hatched dragons. Instead the girl turns up on Slaver’s Bay and leaves a string of burning cities in her wake, and the fat man decides we should meet her by Volantis. Now that plan is in ruins as well.”

The plan Illyrio tells Dany is much the same: Dany would marry Drogo with the promise that Drogo would invade Westeros with his Khalasar, thereby winning Viserys the Throne. Once Dany hatches dragons, after losing the main khalasar, and Drogo and Viserys are dead, Illyrio sends her ships, Barristan, and Strong Belwas to coax her back to Pentos. Though unclear at the time, we later learn that he intended for Dany to ally with Aegon at this time.

From the conversation between Illyrio and Varys that Arya overhears in aGoT (Arya III):

• Varys tells Illyrio that Ned is going to figure out the truth about the incest, and “lion and wolf will be at each other’s throats.” Illyrio replies that it is “Too soon. What good is war now? We are not ready. Delay.” They obviously want war, but have reason to want to delay it. Dany has already married Drogo by this point, but it is before the attempt on her life.
  
• Illyrio suggests that he kill Ned: “If one Hand can die, why not a second. You have danced the dance before, my friend.” We learn later that LF is responsible for the death of Jon Arryn. This tells us that there were previous Hands (under Aerys) that Varys is responsible for killing/ getting rid of.
  
• Illyrio says that more time is crucial because Dany is pregnant, and that the Khal will not invade until his son is born.
  
• Varys says that the Khal needs to bestir himself soon, as “This is no longer a game for two players, if ever it was.” He then lists all of the discord in the realm- budding alliances, growing distrust, as well as this gem “Littlefinger. The gods only know what game Littlefinger is playing,” and blames him for creating acute discord between the Starks and Lannisters.
  
• Varys promises Illyrio to try to slow down the impending war, but tells Illyrio to “make haste” with his own plan, which we know to be gathering military strength for Aegon.
  
• Varys also requests gold and another 50 birds from Illyrio. This tells us that Illyrio supplies at least some of Varys’ spies, and that Varys is not the sole proprietor in the network- Illyrio trains them. This means that if Varys is doing something outside of his arrangement with Illyrio, Illyrio could easily find out. Implicitly, Varys is thusly vulnerable to scrutiny by Illyrio.
  

From the epilogue of DwD:

Varys: “Ser Kevan, forgive me if you can. I bear you no ill will. This was not done from malice. It was for the realm. For the children…There are many like you, good men in service to bad causes…but you were threatening to undo all the queen’s good work, to reconcile Highgarden and Casterly Rock, bind the faith to your little king, unite the Seven Kingdoms under Tommen’s rule. So….”

Varys: “Your niece will think the Tyrells had you murdered, mayhaps with the connivance of the imp. The Tyrells will suspect her. Someone, somewhere will find a way to blame the Dornishmen. Doubt, division and mistrust will eat the very ground beneath your boy king, whilst Aegon raises his banner above Strom’s End and the lords of the realm gather round him.”

Kevan: “Aegon? Dead. He’s dead.”

Varys: “No. He is here. Aegon has been shaped for rule since before he could walk…Aegon knows that kingship is his duty, that a king must put his peope first, and live and rule for them.”

On the surface, it would seem that Varys and Illyrio are seeking Targ restoration through Viserys and Aegon, and later Dany when her batshit brother doesn’t work out. Superficially, it looks like they want Aegon and Viserys to invade a divided Westeros, augmented by Dothraki forces thanks to the marriage pact of Dany.

Yet, there are some major inconsistencies between this and what actually happens. Whereas Aegon has been raised and cared for, trained in his role for kingship, Dany and Viserys are brought into Illyrio’s manse only 6 months prior to the start of aGoT. They receive no training on ruling, nor financial help from V + I prior to this (though they were undoubtedly watched by V+I’s spies).

I know that Varys’ words to Kevan are frequently taken as the truth, as in, “why would Varys lie to a dying man?” but this gives us a major clue. Aside from the fact that Varys and Illyrio share the same informers, and thus Illyrio is implicitly “watching” Varys, Varys’ description of Aegon as a paragon of leadership is highly inconsistent with his treatment of the two Targ kids. If Varys truly wants a competent, good leader, then Dany and Viserys were never seriously part of his calculations, as they received no such training. So either Dany and Varys were never his goal, or he’s not truly interested in leadership competence. Or, there’s something even more mysterious going on.

When Illyrio is speaking to Tyrion at the beginning of DwD, Tyrion is extremely suspicious of Illyrio’s motives. Illyrio claims he hopes to become the Westerosi Master of Coin, or perhaps lord of a castle. When Tyrion expresses incredulity, Illyrio says, “I told you, my little friend, not all that a man does is for gain. Believe as you wish, but even fat old fools like me have friends, and debts of affection to repay.” To this Tyrion thinks, “Liar. There is something in this venture worth more to you than coin or castles.” I happen to think that the motivation for Illyrio is to see his Blackfyre son on the throne, which is precisely the sort of explanation Tyrion is looking for here. That Tyrion prods Illyrio this way is a huge clue for us to take heed and question his supposedly simple explanation.

Illyrio also admits to Tyrion that “[he] did not think Daenerys would survive for long amongst the horselords.”

Tyrion: “That did not stop you from selling her to Khal Drogo…”

Illyrio: “Dothraki neither buy nor sell. Say rather that her brother Viserys gave her to Drogo to win the khal’s friendship.”

………………

Illyrio: “The frightened child who sheltered in my manse died on the Dothraki Sea, and was reborn in blood and fire. This dragon queen who wears her name is a true Targaryen.”

……………..

Illyrio tells Tyrion that the Golden Company has broken contract with Myr to join with Dany. Tyrion finds this highly suspicious, and recalls the history of the Golden Company as Blackfyre loyalists, and thinks it’s very unlikely that they would aid a Targaryen. To this, Illyrio replies, “Black or red, a dragon is still a dragon. When Maelys died upon the Stepstones, it was the end of the male line of House Blackfyre. And Daenerys will give the exiles what Bittersteel and the Blackfyres never could. She will take them home.”

This is what I think is going on regarding the Targ-Blackfyre plot in terms of Varys and Illyrio working together:

1. Prepare Aegon for the throne

2. Sow discord in Westeros

3. At the right time Aegon would join with the GC, with whom V+I made a pact years before as his army

4. Something had to be done with the Targ kids. Sending them off with the Dothraki kills two birds with 1 stone. The Targs needed to be eliminated as rivals to Aegon for this to work. They were likely to die on the Dothraki Sea, as Illyrio admits, which would effectively remove their potential claims.

5. However, in the chance that the Dothraki would be roused to invade Westeros (under the pretense of fighting for the Targ claim), they were always meant to be strawmen for Aegon to fight. Varys would divide the kingdom, Illyrio would oversee Aegon and the Targs (with help from Jorah). With a power vacuum in place, Dany and Viserys would go to Westeros first with the Dothraki, then Aegon would appear, rally Westeros behind him, as nothing unites a kingdom better than a foreign invader. He would bring the realm together and slay the enemy horselords.

6. With Viserys out of the picture, and more importantly, the birth of her dragons, Illyrio wanted to make Dany part of the Aegon plan. He sent her Barristan and the ships to fetch her to Pentos to join with Aegon then, but she refused and went to Slaver’s Bay to buy Unsullied first.

7. With Dany engaged in the Meereenese knot, Varys and Illyrio changed the plan again, to meet up with the Golden Company near Volantis. He secures the sellswords to his cause, and sails to Westeros, taking Storms End.

8. According to Varys, this is all for the sake of having a good and just leader on the throne for the sake of the realm.

This is where I think Varys and Illyrio’s plans diverge. Illyrio’s ends with Aegon on the Throne. Varys is after something else, however. I think a major clue is in Varys’ confession about magic to Tyrion.

Varys speaks of his cutting just after delivering news of Courtnay Penrose’s mysterious death: “Yet I still dream of that night, my lord. Not of the sorcerer, nor his blade, nor even the way my manhood shriveled as it burned. I dream of the voice. The voice from the flames. Was it a god, a demon, some conjurer’s trick? I could not tell you, and I know all the tricks. All I can say for a certainty is that he called it, and it answered, and since that day I have hated magic and all those who practice it. If Lord Stannis is one such, I mean to see him dead.”

I fully believe that Varys knows precisely what the fires said. I don’t believe that Varys actually hates magic; I think that he’s playing a part to Tyrion here, revealing a bit of “weakness” to further cement Tyrion’s trust. Varys is called a wizard and a sorcerer on numerous occasions, not least of which is by Arya when she breathlessly retells Ned of the meeting between V+I she overheard. That he has some active involvement in magic I have no doubt.

I do believe that Varys is going to be one of the hinges that joins the magic with the KL plot, but the question is, what kind of magic exactly, and which side is he working for? Some theories I’ve toyed with that I'm not yet ready to subscribe to:

• that Varys was cut by Marwyn, who we know travelled around Essos, studying and practicing the dark arts. We don’t know with certainty that Varys was forced into the cutting ritual, and the man who cut him could have been his teacher for all we know.
  
• The words spoken the fire are a critical missing piece. Was this a prophesy of sorts? Does he know of the PtwP from this scene, did he hear of the impending apocalypse, or perhaps, something else?
  
• Though I cannot place why precisely, I have recently begun to think that Varys might know who Jon is. I think that it might be the way he tells Ned, “I believe she will allow you to take the black and live out the rest of your days on the Wall, with your brother and that baseborn son of yours,” which evokes poignant emotional thoughts from Ned.
  
• I hate Jaqen theories, but as I mentioned this recently in another thread, I think it’s possible that Jaqen was in KL at Varys’ behest, and the Oldtown target is Varys’ (I’ve wondered if he was supposed to meet up with Marwyn in some capacity). I do not believe that Varys wanted Ned dead, at least in the way it happened. Varys needs to let the strife simmer, but not boil over, which is precisely what happened by executing Ned in Lannister custody. I think that there is a possibility that if Jaqen was there on Varys’ business, Varys might have included him with the NW recruits as a side mission in order to have Ned killed “accidentally,” thus not drawing political suspicion, and removing a target without instigating further turmoil.
  

One last point. Varys is known for attributing his motivations to “for the children,” and “serving the realm.” The obvious questions are “which realm?” “serve the realm in what way?” and “which children exactly?” On one hand it appears that Varys wants ultimate stability, for which he admittedly cracks many eggs. But I could also see it being the exact opposite case, especially if magic is involved.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

@Butterbumps

Kickass analysis, especially about Varys, whose motivations tend to be really confusing. Way to lay it out in pretty straightforward terms.

My takeaways:

1. A lot of people seem to be looking for that "line of demaracation," where Dany stopped being a pawn and started being a potetial piece of the puzzle. The dragons hatching appears to be that line.

2. I admit that I had totally overlooked the "words" Varys heard in the fire (I really need to reread Clash; it's the one I pick up the least often), but I definitely agree that they might be very important.

3. I'm intrigued by the idea that Varys has some higher purpose than just Illyior's "simple" political goal.

4. I'm also intrigued by the idea that Jaqen is Varys' henchman and that Varys knows who Jon really is, even if I'm still not quite sure I believe it (especially the latter).

5. I'm keen on the idea that Marwyn is the one who castrated Varys (if he's really a eunuch, can't forget that one), mainly because I see a lot of people hoping that Marwyn is a "good guy" who will go to Essos and set Dany straight or teach her about her dragons or whatever. Seems much too good to be true to me, and as such I'm open to the possibility that Marwyn is much darker than we've been led to believe.

[butterbumps!]

4. I'm also intrigued by the idea that Jaqen is Varys' henchman and that Varys knows who Jon really is, even if I'm still not quite sure I believe it (especially the latter).

5. I'm keen on the idea that Marwyn is the one who castrated Varys (if he's really a eunuch, can't forget that one), mainly because I see a lot of people hoping that Marwyn is a "good guy" who will go to Essos and set Dany straight or teach her about her dragons or whatever. Seems much too good to be true to me, and as such I'm open to the possibility that Marwyn is much darker than we've been led to believe.

lol, yea, whether he's a eunuch is a really good question. Though, you start going down that road, and pretty soon Varys is going to be considered as Shiera Seastar, Lyanna Stark, possibly even Ashara Dayne candidates....

I'm also very unsure about the possibility of his knowing who Jon is; I can't place where this feeling came from (it started somewhat recently while doing the Tyrion reread for some reason). I am least confident about this part, lol.

And yea- I think the major demarcation line is the dragons-- that's the first time they consider making one of the Targs an ally, I believe.

[redviper9]

<snip>

Outstanding post!

Let me say that yours is the first "Jaqen is working with/for Varys" theory that I find plausible. You're right in pointing out that Varys didn't want Ned dead when he was first imprisoned. But of course, that doesn't mean he didn't want Ned dead at some point.

And, much like Apple Martini, I had forgotten about the words Varys heard in the fire. For me, the biggest takeaway from that conversation has always been Varys's supposed hatred of magic, which means I probably fell for the misdirection as badly as Tyrion did. I don't think that Varys, intelligent person that he is, has remained in the dark as to the meaning of those words. And that might be what's ultimately driving him.

I'm not so sure if Varys knows about Jon's true parentage. I know you cite his conversation with Ned in the dungeons, but I for one think GRRM had Varys mention Jon so we could see that Ned doesn't refer to him as his son in his thoughts. Unless Varys was trying to goad Ned into saying something, but what purpose would Ned confessing the truth about Jon's parentage serve Varys at that point?

[tze]

Varys speaks of his cutting just after delivering news of Courtnay Penrose’s mysterious death: “Yet I still dream of that night, my lord. Not of the sorcerer, nor his blade, nor even the way my manhood shriveled as it burned. I dream of the voice. The voice from the flames. Was it a god, a demon, some conjurer’s trick? I could not tell you, and I know all the tricks. All I can say for a certainty is that he called it, and it answered, and since that day I have hated magic and all those who practice it. If Lord Stannis is one such, I mean to see him dead.”

I fully believe that Varys knows precisely what the fires said. I don’t believe that Varys actually hates magic; I think that he’s playing a part to Tyrion here, revealing a bit of “weakness” to further cement Tyrion’s trust. Varys is called a wizard and a sorcerer on numerous occasions, not least of which is by Arya when she breathlessly retells Ned of the meeting between V+I she overheard. That he has some active involvement in magic I have no doubt.

Amazing as always BB, but I'd like to add a different perspective to this particular section. I don't think Varys has any involvement with magic at all. In fact, I think the whole "a sorcerer castrated me and threw my junk into the fire, and a voice spoke from that fire" is a bald-faced lie meant to assure Tyrion that Vary would never, ever, ever think of selling out House Lannister to their magic-using (and fire-loving) Enemy #1, Stannis.

Varys spends a great deal of time cultivating the image of someone with magical powers in the eyes of the people amazed at his vast knowledge base, but he's never shown any actual indication of magical association. The conversation Arya overhears between Varys and Illyrio lampshades this:

"Too soon, too soon," the voice with the accent complained. "What good is war now? We are not ready. Delay."

"As well bid me stop time. Do you take me for a wizard?"

The other chuckled. "No less."

Even the finest of jugglers cannot keep a hundred balls in the air forever."

"You are more than a juggler, old friend. You are a true sorcerer. All I ask is that you work your magic awhile longer." They started down the hall in the

direction Arya had come, past the room with the monsters.

"What I can do, I will," the one with the torch said softly. "I must have gold, and another fifty birds."

At first, Varys is joking with Illyrio about the mere idea of Varys as a wizard, which isn't something you'd expect from someone who really was brutally mutilated by an actual wizard. And then, it's made clear that Illyrio considers Varys's "juggling" to be the equivalent of "sorcery"---and when Varys says he'll do what he can, he asks for gold and birds, not the assistance of magic-users from Essos, and not any magical aids or tools. By calling Varys a "sorcerer" and a "wizard", Illyrio is actually praising Varys's powers of manipulation and bullshit---he's not attributing any actual magical powers to him (nor does Varys claim any himself); he's saying that Varys's mundane "powers" of scheming are so wonderful that they're the closest thing possible to magic--not that they're actually magic. Arya believing Varys to be a wizard here seems meant to be ironic, as Varys is no wizard but Arya---skinchanging, facechanging Arya---will actually eventually become a "wizard" herself.

We know Varys's information, the primary source of some Westerosi beliefs that he has magical powers, actually comes from non-magical sources (spies in the walls), and the idea that Varys was involved with Jaqen runs into the problem of why, then, would Jaqen have been locked up in the black cells in the first place (since Varys, or "Rugen", could easily have let him out, rather than forcing Jaqen to join up with the group headed to the Wall in order to get out of the black cells). Nothing we've seen of Varys's plans seems to rely upon, or even take into account, the presence of magic at all. If he believed in the existence of magic, he should logically have been lining up magical aids---sorcerers from Qarth, shadowbinders, red priests to give him prophecies to help direct his plans, etc. But he's made no move to get any purported magic-users (like Melisandre, or the Stark wargs) on his side, let alone to try and "counter", or in some way protect himself from, their magical powers. Varys seems to rely solely upon mummery, trickery, and manipulation, and I don't think he really even believes in the existence of magic at all.

Varys tells Tyrion that he was part of a traveling mummer's troupe, and while in Myr, a man cut off his genitals and threw them into a brazier, the fire turned blue and a voice spoke something that Varys heard but could not understand. He claims the mummers abandoned him, he lived on the streets, became a thief, and eventually "learned that often the contents of a man's letters are more valuable than the contents of his purse." Varys's noted skills at mummery would support the idea that he was trained in mummery, and Illyrio later tells Tyrion that Varys was a powerful thief in Myr who liked to deal in information rather than goods (and it seems unlikely (though of course, not impossible) that Varys had sent a note with the story he wanted Illyrio to tell Tyrion, so there's reason to think these elements are true). But Varys's whole story reminds me of the backgrounds Arya kept making up for herself in Braavos----some elements of truth, but wrapped around a core of lies. What's the lie here? Just look at the purpose of the story---to illustrate to Tyrion why Varys would never sell out the Lannisters to Stannis, and why Tyrion can therefore trust the oh-so-untrustworthy Varys. All of the other (plausible) details are meant to prop up that particular idea, and since we know that Varys is plotting against House Lannister, it makes sense that that idea---that Varys just happens to have a traumatic story of being attacked by a fire-loving magic-user, the perfect symbol of Stannis---is the lie.

The whole "throwing the genitals on the fire" aspect reminds me of the Unsullied's ritual with their goddess---and given Varys's purported origins in Essos, not to mention the fact that his partner Illyrio owns Unsullied guards, I wouldn't be surprised if Varys knows about the Unsullied's religion and used the Unsullied's religion to add some "flavor of truth" to his BS. Not to mention, Melisandre has powders that can change fire's colors, so it would make sense for Varys to have seen Red Priests doing such tricks in Essos (which would be where he got the idea of including the fire changing color in his story), and the "voice from the flames" could easily have been inspired by experiences with the Red Priests, who claim the fires "speak" to them and who (we know, via Melisandre) can use throw their voices during their "spells".

There's been a lot of speculation that Varys is actually Serra's brother, uncle to Aegon and a Blackfyre himself, and it's a theory I think makes a lot of sense. I don't think Varys has a "higher purpose" at all: I think that, the more we see of him, the more obvious it becomes that he's just as petty, mundane, and greedy as all the rest of them, and the reveal of the "Aegon Plan" especially highlights this. He's not seeking to achieve anything greater than anyone else---even to him, it's all about the throne.

[The Drunkard]

Great post BB! However, this....

LF sets himself up as Lord Protector. The other Lords do not approve at first. Lyn Corbray (of the same Corbrays who established his great-grandfather) fortuitously makes a physical threat on LF at the meeting, which offers an opening for LF to request a “trial period.” Of course, this was a ruse, as Lyn Corbray is LF’s creature, placated by boys and gold (small aside, Sweet Robin has an extremely strong reaction to being told that Lyn was to come to the Eyrie…hmm).

... Just freaked me out.

:ack:

[Scipio Africanus]

Well I suspect where this thread is going. That LF is thought by many to be a dumb version of the Joker. I've already given arguments in other threads why I believe LF is more then that. I might be reading more into LF ( I'll admit my guilt in 2014 if I'm wrong ;) )

To start off though I'd like to say I'm not a "supporter" of LF or his "goals". The only thing I support is Northern independance. And that Martin write back in the GREATJON. And Jon being alive to find out his parantage as we all were promised.

Back to LF. Several things here which have already been said or will be said.

I) LF is not a self-made man. Because he is of the nobility. This certainly is a very narrow view of "self-made" men. My classic definition is apparently that of many here. Self-made men are equal to the American dream. A poor, uneducated paper boy selling newspapers at corners of the street in the roaring '20s rising up to be a media tycoon and a millionaire.

However, as recent studies have shown, this type of "self-made" man is extremely rare and hardly ever happens, leading many to say that the American dream doesn't exist.

But the arguments levelled against LF has more to do with the general dislike against the man rather then rationally defining what a self-made man is. What people are basically saying, is that guys like Steve Jobs and Bill Gates are not self-made men because they had the benifits of an education, while a hungry refugee child in Darfur has no such benifit, thus they have somehow cheated.

My current definition of a self-made man is less strict then that. Self-made men, if you think about it, can mean more then the classic archtype of the American dream. I personally define guys like Steve Jobs and Bill Gates as self-made men, as they built up their own empire using their own vision and skills. Even though they were able to receive an education and some came from rich families.

Back to LF. Cercei plainly states she refused him when he asked to marry Sansa because he was too lowborn (this must've been around the timeline of CoK). When we last see LF is was made Lord of Harrenhal (plus a bunch of other titles) and was allowed to marry into the high nobility.

In this respect, LF has risen right up the social latter. From where he came from this is quite an achievement. In the series we only see Davos, Illyrio and arguebly Varys rise up from a "normie" to a nob. In medieval times and even some parts of the world today rising up the social castes was rare. If you consider Davos etc a self-made man, then LF fits this bill too. Even though he was "privaliged" by getting an education. He did rise up the social ladder after all, besides making a lot of money.

II) LF is a dumb Joker, wanting to see the world burn. I'll start off by placing LF and the Joker in D&D alignments, because that simplifies world outlooks a lot and might explain my point. In D&D terms, good and evil are opposites, while law and chaos are opposites too.

The Joker would fit in the Chaotic Evil catagory while LF would fit in the Lawful Evil catagory. The Joker wants to destroy law and order more or less just for the **** of it. LF is the type of person who likes having laws around - so he can manipulate them for his own uses.

As for the intelligence part, Varys is probably the only bonifide genius level intelligence in the Game we currently know about. Martin made it a point that during the small council meeting when Tyrion was Hand, Varys was the one who responded the quickest and knew what Tyrion was proposing.

But LF isn't stupid either. No characters in the book think LF is stupid or uncunning. And the way he rised up the ladder (and made/swindled) money for himself) is no sign of stupidity either.

Finally, what are LF's goals? The Joker simply wants to see the world burn. LF is different in my view. There are things he wants (Cat), and he does want Sansa (in a way). LF comes over to me as conflicted over Sansa. On the one hand he sees her as a young Cat (that he should've had) and, well, lusts for her. On the other hand he sees her as the daughter he should've had with Cat.

This situation won't end well for LF and will lead to his downfall but that's another story.

III) LF is an open book and a bad actor. First off, probably because poker is so populair these days, people are thinking that to be a proficient gambler you must be a great actor. I'd say for most gambling games you don't need a lot of acting skills but rather a willingness to put everything on the line for a chance to win. Varys indeed is a poker player, while LF is a (Russian) roulette kind of gambler.

LF is the kind of high-stakes gambler who never can stop playing. This will be his downfall but that's another story (or two). But the notion that he can't act is false in my view. He succesfully acted when the Lord Declarant were screaming for his head over Sweetrobin, and succesfully shifted the blame to the Bard in the case of Lysa's death (yes, whether they're truely on LF's bandwagon is another matter, but from what we know up till now LF succesfully lied). I could name other examples, but to say LF is a bad actor is a bit over simplifying.

I've noticed that LF often choses not to lie. For example, he's brutally direct and callous when interacting with Tyrion, Cercei and Eddard.

He does this, as others have noted, partly out of smugness. I think the other part is, he knows he can get away with it. And maybe he likes the thrill of the chance of getting caught. He is a gambler after all.

Finally, characters of varying intelligence have trouble decerning what LF's motives and intentions are. Varys does not know, even though he is of genius intelligence level. Tyrion does not know, despite that he's above average intelligent. Tywin does not know, even though he's a ruthless, opportunistic cunning politician himself. To say LF is openly displaying his weaknesses is false.

The big difference between him and say Varys is that LF is close to two-three particulair POVs (Cat, Sansa and to a lesser extent Eddard) while Varys is close to none. Tyrion came close, but as Tze already posted, Varys has (succesfully) lulled Tyrion to a false sense of trust and was misleading him.

In other words, we know a bit more of how LF thinks and feels because he is close to particulairly Sansa. Varys is close to no POV and therefor highly enigmatic.

To conclude (written more then I intended to, though I could've written more) while I don't necessarily disagree with butterbumps! posts I personally interpet the character LF differently and therefor come to different conclusions.

As for Varys, Tze as of late has been giving excellent insight (as far as possible) into Varys so I have little more to add there.

[ab aeterno]

Well I suspect where this thread is going. That LF is thought by many to be a dumb version of the Joker. I've already given arguments in other threads why I believe LF is more then that. I might be reading more into LF ( I'll admit my guilt in 2014 if I'm wrong ;) )

To start off though I'd like to say I'm not a "supporter" of LF or his "goals". The only thing I support is Northern independance. And that Martin write back in the GREATJON. And Jon being alive to find out his parantage as we all were promised.

Back to LF. Several things here which have already been said or will be said.

I) LF is not a self-made man. Because he is of the nobility. This certainly is a very narrow view of "self-made" men. My classic definition is apparently that of many here. Self-made men are equal to the American dream. A poor, uneducated paper boy selling newspapers at corners of the street in the roaring '20s rising up to be a media tycoon and a millionaire.

However, as recent studies have shown, this type of "self-made" man is extremely rare and hardly ever happens, leading many to say that the American dream doesn't exist.

But the arguments levelled against LF has more to do with the general dislike against the man rather then rationally defining what a self-made man is. What people are basically saying, is that guys like Steve Jobs and Bill Gates are not self-made men because they had the benifits of an education, while a hungry refugee child in Darfur has no such benifit, thus they have somehow cheated.

My current definition of a self-made man is less strict then that. Self-made men, if you think about it, can mean more then the classic archtype of the American dream. I personally define guys like Steve Jobs and Bill Gates as self-made men, as they built up their own empire using their own vision and skills. Even though they were able to receive an education and some came from rich families.

While the "rags to riches" story isn't as common as we would all like, it does happen more commonly in the US than elsewhere, as many of those studies have shown. The difference is a lack of a legally defined classes, generally speaking, and a lack of general social belief in class.

I think, on this issue, the difference is that while Steve Jobs, Bill gates et al. had advantages, educations, etc. they weren't legaly above other peope. Yes, as far as relative positions among the nobility are concerned, LF was fairly low down and has improved his position but I would argue that he isn't a "self-made man," so much as he is a man who has improved his position. LF has legal advantages, his family were legally and socially raised above the vast majority of the population of Westeros already. Yes, he climbed the social ladder a great deal but it's not like going from being an average person to being a successful billionaire like Jobs, Larry Elison or anyone like that, he has gone from being solidly upper class to being more upper class. That is the difference for me.

I would also argue that coming from a rich family should disqualify someone, as they weren't self made, because they inherited considerable wealth.

Edit: In fact, I would argue that Davos is more of a self-made man than LF is. Being knighted or made a lord is not much different in practise than being made Master of Coin and being given the Riverlands, etc.

[redviper9]

Regarding the "self-made" Littlefinger, I would argue that that description better fits his ancestors than him. From Essosi sellsword to Master of Coin in a handful of generations is quite an impressive rise. And Littlefinger has taken full advantage of the doors opened for him by his father, grandfather, and great-grandfather. That he has been so adept at walking through those doors is a sign of his intelligence (I don't think of him as a dumb version of the Joker; at the same time, I don't think he's as smart as Varys). But that the doors were open at all is indicative of the fact that he was born into the nobility; maybe he wasn't born into the highest ranks of the nobility, but he is noble nonetheless. Hoster Tully probably wouldn't have taken the son of a landless sellsword on as a ward, no matter how close of friends they had become on the battlefield (the only major house I can think of that takes in common children as wards of a sort are the Martells at the Water Gardens). And it was his LF's youth in Riverrun -- as already noted by butterbumps! in the OP -- that allowed him to befriend Lysa, which opened up even more doors for him when he reached adulthood.

Now, none of that diminishes what LF has accomplished up to this point. Going from a minor noble to Master of Coin, Lord of Harrenhal, Lord Paramount of the Riverlands, and Lord Protector of the Vale in the span of a decade is nothing to sneeze at. But, like ab aeterno, I think the rise of Davos -- who was born to nothing in Flea Bottom -- is far more impressive and worthy of the descriptor "self-made" than Littlefinger's.

[Little Wing]

Not wanting Stannis around is something both Varys and LF share though. Hah, like Stannis hasn't got enough problems already! The small council dialogue from the time Stannis was in it must have been pure gold :laugh:

[Ice Turtle]

Not wanting Stannis around is something both Varys and LF share though. Hah, like Stannis hasn't got enough problems already! The small council dialogue from the time Stannis was in it must have been pure gold :laugh:

I can't even really imagine Robert, Renly and Stannis in one room.

[butterbumps!]

Well I suspect where this thread is going. That LF is thought by many to be a dumb version of the Joker. I've already given arguments in other threads why I believe LF is more then that. I might be reading more into LF ( I'll admit my guilt in 2014 if I'm wrong ;) )

I didn't say that LF is a dumber Joker, and I'm really not trying to use this as my anti-LF platform. My honest intention was to put together some comprehensive info on the two, because I think the question of their endgames and methods are confusing and it takes some digging to figure out what they're doing.

Finally, what are LF's goals? The Joker simply wants to see the world burn. LF is different in my view. There are things he wants (Cat), and he does want Sansa (in a way). LF comes over to me as conflicted over Sansa. On the one hand he sees her as a young Cat (that he should've had) and, well, lusts for her. On the other hand he sees her as the daughter he should've had with Cat.

To conclude (written more then I intended to, though I could've written more) while I don't necessarily disagree with butterbumps! posts I personally interpet the character LF differently and therefor come to different conclusions.

I don't think I actually disagree with yours that much (other than the self-made man aspect), but I'm not sure that I see LF's desire for Cat and Sansa the way you do. I don't think this is one of those "pure as the driven snow" love stories regarding either lady. I actually believe that Tyrion is correct when he says "the only person LF has ever loved is LF." I think that Cat is a token and that Sansa is little more than a pawn to him.

At first, Varys is joking with Illyrio about the mere idea of Varys as a wizard, which isn't something you'd expect from someone who really was brutally mutilated by an actual wizard. And then, it's made clear that Illyrio considers Varys's "juggling" to be the equivalent of "sorcery"---and when Varys says he'll do what he can, he asks for gold and birds, not the assistance of magic-users from Essos, and not any magical aids or tools. By calling Varys a "sorcerer" and a "wizard", Illyrio is actually praising Varys's powers of manipulation and bullshit---he's not attributing any actual magical powers to him (nor does Varys claim any himself); he's saying that Varys's mundane "powers" of scheming are so wonderful that they're the closest thing possible to magic--not that they're actually magic. Arya believing Varys to be a wizard here seems meant to be ironic, as Varys is no wizard but Arya---skinchanging, facechanging Arya---will actually eventually become a "wizard" herself.

I completely agree that the use of "wizard" and "sorcerer" as applied to Varys is being said in a more figurative manner. I don't think that anyone who calls him these things is referring to literal sorcery. But the fact that such terms are thrown at Varys, even in jest, puts my hackles up. To be sure, I don't contend that he's a wizard or using magic precisely; I think it's more likely that he's invested or interested in some form of magic, but not necessarily practicing it himself. I think that the magical terms applied to him might be subtle clues that something more is going on with him, but the majority of what we see of Varys does suggest it is admittedly more prosaic. And I don't think that if Varys has any connection to magic that Illyrio would be in on it, partly for the reasons you say-- he doesn't ask for magical assistance from him, nor discuss any aspect of a magical agenda.

What stands out to me is that he's very quick to accept the shadowy cause of Renly and Courtnay's death. That magic was used is something he doesn't seem to doubt, and we know that he's 100% correct in his explanation of their deaths to Tyrion. It suggests that it's not his first time at the rodeo. The explanation about being cut would seem to satisfy how he has had exposure to magic, but I think it's a half truth at best. Part of what fuels my suspicions is that I think there's something missing between Varys' clear acceptance of the belief in magic and the story of how he was cut.

We know Varys's information, the primary source of some Westerosi beliefs that he has magical powers, actually comes from non-magical sources (spies in the walls), and the idea that Varys was involved with Jaqen runs into the problem of why, then, would Jaqen have been locked up in the black cells in the first place (since Varys, or "Rugen", could easily have let him out, rather than forcing Jaqen to join up with the group headed to the Wall in order to get out of the black cells). Nothing we've seen of Varys's plans seems to rely upon, or even take into account, the presence of magic at all. If he believed in the existence of magic, he should logically have been lining up magical aids---sorcerers from Qarth, shadowbinders, red priests to give him prophecies to help direct his plans, etc. But he's made no move to get any purported magic-users (like Melisandre, or the Stark wargs) on his side, let alone to try and "counter", or in some way protect himself from, their magical powers. Varys seems to rely solely upon mummery, trickery, and manipulation, and I don't think he really even believes in the existence of magic at all.

Any connection between Varys and Jaqen only makes sense if sending Jaqen to the Wall was a side quest, added to the Oldtown plan for the sake of killing Ned discretely. It would mean that Jaqen wasn't brought to the cells until Varys had visited Ned and urged him to take the black. The idea that Varys would want to off Ned discretely is plausible, in that I really believe he was trying to avoid further instigations between Stark/ Lannister, which a public execution would bring. But a FM would remedy that. In general though, I'm not sold on any Jaqen theory and usually avoid them, but I think that this one might have some plausibility from a motive perspective.

I agree that nothing we've seen of Varys' plans seems to incorporate any known magical bodies. I think this is a huge omission, but if he were collecting such people, I think it would give away his game and make him look like something of a crackpot to the rest of the court, which he seems quite loathe to do. I think part of why this is an omission is because none of the other POVs have been privy to his private moments, except for Arya, who coincidentally believed he was a real wizard. It would stand to reason that if this is part of the endgame he's after, that he wouldn't expose this to the other characters. We also have a chance- admittedly small- that Jaqen could be on Varys' business at the Citadel, which would connect to a magical aspect, though, I won't pretend to know what this aspect is.

But I do think he believes in magic, given his acceptance of those aforementioned deaths. Are you thinking he might believe that Melisandre's actions are a form of mummery as well, and not true magic? That's an interesting idea I hadn't considered, but I'm not sure how that would fit-- he did accurately explain the magical causes of their deaths.

But Varys's whole story reminds me of the backgrounds Arya kept making up for herself in Braavos----some elements of truth, but wrapped around a core of lies. What's the lie here? Just look at the purpose of the story---to illustrate to Tyrion why Varys would never sell out the Lannisters to Stannis, and why Tyrion can therefore trust the oh-so-untrustworthy Varys. All of the other (plausible) details are meant to prop up that particular idea, and since we know that Varys is plotting against House Lannister, it makes sense that that idea---that Varys just happens to have a traumatic story of being attacked by a fire-loving magic-user, the perfect symbol of Stannis---is the lie.

I agree wholeheartedly on this, that Varys is using this story as a means of building "trust capital" with Tyrion. I think the story was strategically "confessed" to tell Tyrion precisely what you've suggested about loyalties. I think there's a lot of this story that is complete fabrication, but again, it does seem as though he accepts the existence of magic in some capacity. This particular story should be taken with a grain of salt because it makes Varys appear (intentionally so) weak and vulnerable, which is precisely his trust-building MO, so I agree with you on this. But I guess, how does it explain his correct identification of magic as the COD?

There's been a lot of speculation that Varys is actually Serra's brother, uncle to Aegon and a Blackfyre himself, and it's a theory I think makes a lot of sense. I don't think Varys has a "higher purpose" at all: I think that, the more we see of him, the more obvious it becomes that he's just as petty, mundane, and greedy as all the rest of them, and the reveal of the "Aegon Plan" especially highlights this. He's not seeking to achieve anything greater than anyone else---even to him, it's all about the throne.

Hmm....that's interesting. I thought about Varys as Serra's brother too, and accept the possibility that his goals and Illyrio's are exactly the same. Something about this doesn't feel quite right to me though.

[The Meeraculous Third Reed]

Really cool thread (if somewhat biased against my favourite Master of Coin). Haven't got round to reading it all yet, but will do so imminently.

If I ever got/get the chance to ask GRRM a question, I've always thought it would be "have you ever created a second character out of an original?". The two people I always had in mind for this were LF and Varys. Yet the more I thought, I considered that they are not at all alike, other than the fact they use information as their means of getting to power. Their motivations, tactics, origins (and how these shaped said things) are so subtly but completely different.

[butterbumps!]

Great post BB! However, this....

... Just freaked me out.

:ack:

Yea, I hadn't picked up on Sweet Robin's reaction until I was writing this. Here's the quote:

“I don’t like Ser Lyn,” Robert insisted. “I won’t have him here. You send him back down. I never said that he could come. Not here. The Eyrie is impregnable, Mother said.” He's the only Lord Declarant that SR reacts to in such a way. And Lyn just happens to like little boys. It's a truly disgusting prospect if there's something to this.

[straits]

This will effectively be a Varys vanity thread until Varys' actions stop getting praises and Littlefinger stops being described as low, petty, immoral et cetera.

[Ragnorak]

Very nicely put together, BB.

I put together much of the evidence and reasoning for Varys being Serra's brother here. We get a good bit of Varys voice changing as he relays information or reacts to people. One day I want to take the time to catalog them all. I specifically recall a few cases where his voice gets deeper. Tyrion specifically notes how he changes before relaying his castration tale. I've never known whether to believe it or not. On one hand Varys is a master liar so why would one ever believe it? Varys relays so much information that if you can't really trust his data from a plot perspective that makes for a convouted read. (Part of why I subscribe to his speaking in technical truths theory.) Much of what he relays we can eventually piece together for little nuggets like that description of Arryn's squire applies perfectly to LF too. We have no way to confirm or deny any part of his castration tale until DwD where we get the thief part confirmed. I completely agree with Tze's assessment as to why he's relaying the tale, I just have no idea how true the underlying details are. It could be 100% true or Varys could not even be castrated and I can't find sufficient evidence or reasoning on either side. In some ways based on what we have as data so far it almost doesn't matter.

Over the course of the Tyrion reread my opinion of LF's skill as a master manipulator has fallen substantially. On closer analysis he begins to come off as an unwitting Varys pawn. Varys certainly turns down several opportunities to have Tyrion eliminate him so we have to conclude that Varys values LF still being in play.

LF's great grandfather profited from war. That is the way of a sellsword. His father earned him a fostering at Riverrun through an opportunity that presented itself during a war. It seems that LF's family's rise has been through the opportunities that present themselves in conflict. Other than dispensing with martial merit, he is certainly keeping with the family tradition. One notable distinction is that in the former cases there can be no reward without actively taking credit for one's actions.

“I… I could call myself after my mother…”

“Catelyn? A bit too obvious… but after my mother, that would serve. Alayne. Do you like it?”

There is almost an implication that there is a not so obvious meaning behind her taking LF's mother's name. The LF family dynamic would be most interesting indeed. His home is on the landing site of the Andals where they first arrived to war with the First Men. He gives Sansa a bastard identity of one raised in the Faith. Her current course would strip her of the Old Gods the same way the Andals did to the original Vale inhabitants.

I would love to know the actual prophesy LF heard as a boy from that hermit.

[butterbumps!]

This will effectively be a Varys vanity thread until Varys' actions stop getting praises and Littlefinger stops being described as low, petty, immoral et cetera.

Varys is pretty clearly a horrendously immoral guy. He cuts out children's tongues and keeps them in slavery essentially until they become useless, at which point he kills them. He is behind untold misery and strife in the 7 kingdoms. He was going to get Dany and Viserys killed, and worse, he wanted Dothraki rapers to enter the kingdoms for the sake of a strawman enemy. He's not an angel, and I don't think anyone has argued this.

LF does use low cunning though. That's exactly what his plans suggest-- he's an opportunist more than a mastermind. And he does react quite pettily-- everything that comes out of his mouth is a petty insult.