Why does everyone think Aegon is fake v.2

[MtnLion]

I thought Ashara had an unborn baby girl??????????????????

That is what Barristan thinks, and we are not entirely positive that he has firsthand knowledge of what Ashara (or Elia) delivered. There is good motive for the two girls who are close to switch the babies if Elia delivers a stillborn girl. And, if the girls pull it off, Barristan would believe that Ashara had a stillborn daughter.

ETA: Your comment alludes to possibly an early termination, but "stillborn" is typically a full term delivery.

[MtnLion]

Yes, the mad king was a terrible maniac who would brutally murder anybody that disobeyed him in even the slightest manor. Besides the fact that there's a significant difference between spiriting baby Aegon to safety and neglecting a direct order re the Kingsguard from the King (that he would also IMMEDIATELY know about), the point of a contingency plan (carried out/initiated by whomever, it doesn't matter) was that it was to be carried out to ensure the survival of the Targaryan dynasty in the event that Rhaegar AND the mad king AND the rest of the royal family were all dead.

Rhaegar knows there are two possible scenarios to follow after the Battle of the Trident:

1) He wins, returns to KL, once again has the babies switched and everything goes back to normal. He now has the opportunity to institute the changes that he wanted to put in place before the battle.

2) He loses, rebel army descends upon KL, King Aerys is executed and most likely the rest of the royal family is killed.

Either way - baby Aegon lives. And the mad king's wrath doesn't matter, because there will be no wrath either way (Rhaegar is either dead or victorious).

There is the third, that conveniently got omitted: Rhaegar does not risk his father's wrath (note he was very careful about this since Harrenhal) and did not make any plans that would take place before his father's death. He could have tasked Varys, but what we know of his relationship with Varys is that he despised Varys.

So, if Varys does indeed spirit fAegon out of the Red Keep, and King's Landing, it had to have happened within the few moments of Aerys making his final mistake. Varys is not known for putting his life on the line, either. Again, so it is painfully clear, Aerys has commanded that Jaime, Elia, Rhaenys, and Aegon remain in the Red Keep.

[DaeneryStormBorn]

That is what Barristan thinks, and we are not entirely positive that he has firsthand knowledge of what Ashara (or Elia) delivered. There is good motive for the two girls who are close to switch the babies if Elia delivers a stillborn girl. And, if the girls pull it off, Barristan would believe that Ashara had a stillborn daughter.

ETA: Your comment alludes to possibly an early termination, but "stillborn" is typically a full term delivery.

So you are stating that she had her child in the kings landing? this is the only way they could swap the baby. I have no recollection of Ashara having a child in the Kings Landing? If she did not have a child in Kings landing, are you saying that Ashara had a child in starfall then went to Kings landing with her child even thought there is a war? Just to swap the babies?

[MtnLion]

So you are stating that she had her child in the kings landing? this is the only way they could swap the baby. I have no recollection of Ashara having a child in the Kings Landing? If she did not have a child in Kings landing, are you saying that Ashara had a child in starfall then went to Kings landing with her child even thought there is a war? Just to swap the babies?

According to Ser Barristan Ashara was dishonored at Harrenhal Tourney, held in the year of the false spring. I submit that winter descended on Westeros following the Tourney, before Ashara began to show. Elia and Ashara were close, and Elia may have managed to hide the pregnancy as well. But, for Ashara to get to Starfall, she would either need to travel the Boneway, or through Prince's Pass. It is very likely that Prince's Pass is unpassable during winter, and I am anxiously waiting to find out for sure. It is snowing in King's Landing which is a good indication that Prince's Pass will be unpassable. What is Ashara going to do? She is going to stay in King's Landing and likely delivers her child there. Elia can easily keep her with her, if she chooses, merely offering the inhospitable conditions on the road as excuse, if nothing else. The war doesn't start during the winter, as Elia delivers during this period, too. It is only after Rhaegar names fAegon that he makes up his mind to pursue Lyanna, since there must be three, and Elia cannot bear any further pregnancies.

[DaeneryStormBorn]

If Ashara had a child in KINGS LANDING as you said, Don't you think that someone will at least know about it? There is nothing in the book that state that she had a child in kings landing. Specially with VARY at the kings landing.

[MtnLion]

If Ashara had a child in KINGS LANDING as you said, Don't you think that someone will at least know about it? There is nothing in the book that state that she had a child in kings landing. Specially with VARY at the kings landing.

There is nothing in the book that says that she had the child anywhere else, yet we have Ser Barristan remembering a "stillborn daughter". (Ser Barristan was in King's Landing.) It is possible for her and Elia to give birth in the same chambers within a close enough period of time for the babies to become confused (easily switched unobserved).

[Uncle Impe]

According to Ser Barristan Ashara was dishonored at Harrenhal Tourney, held in the year of the false spring. I submit that winter descended on Westeros following the Tourney, before Ashara began to show. Elia and Ashara were close, and Elia may have managed to hide the pregnancy as well. But, for Ashara to get to Starfall, she would either need to travel the Boneway, or through Prince's Pass. It is very likely that Prince's Pass is unpassable during winter, and I am anxiously waiting to find out for sure. It is snowing in King's Landing which is a good indication that Prince's Pass will be unpassable. What is Ashara going to do? She is going to stay in King's Landing and likely delivers her child there. Elia can easily keep her with her, if she chooses, merely offering the inhospitable conditions on the road as excuse, if nothing else. The war doesn't start during the winter, as Elia delivers during this period, too. It is only after Rhaegar names fAegon that he makes up his mind to pursue Lyanna, since there must be three, and Elia cannot bear any further pregnancies.

I think this post properly encapsulates the reason why people believe Aegon is fake. Some people are simply borne this way. It is in their nature to believe in conspiracies and hidden agendas even where none are to be found.

I use this particular post because it is endemic of the majority of posters on the forum. People just love to make up tall yarns and weave brand new stories that aren't any where in the text. It is the nature of people. (I would say it is natural in mankind.) The very reason why some believe in science and others in unicorns, fairies and magic ponds. It is the reason why some believe in the shooter on the grassy knoll and an idiot like George Bush planning the 9/11 attacks on the twin towers.

The sad thing is that when WOW comes out and it is proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that all this speculation is utter nonsense then guess what? The authors of this clap trap will not concede to you that they were advancing baloney theories. Oh no, some will probably insist on writing their own chapters, that Martin is not a good writer after all and should have followed their script they wrote it or some other nonsense.

But, for Ashara to get to Starfall, she would either need to travel the Boneway, or through Prince's Pass. It is very likely that Prince's Pass is unpassable during winter, and I am anxiously waiting to find out for sure. It is snowing in King's Landing which is a good indication that Prince's Pass will be unpassable. What is Ashara going to do?

This is utter nonsense for lack of a better word.

Seriously he is talking about weather conditions and travel options of one character from a tome that has hundreds of unique characters. Any sane individual would remind him that it is impossible for any writer in the world to contemplate such minutia regarding each and every character in the book. Or may be you are implying that Martin went through the trouble of focusing on the route options on one character in the book who has been dead and mostly inconsequential to the story. (key word being "mostly" make sure you grasp the meaning of the word before you go off accusing me of having called her irrelevant, something most semi-literates are wont to do just to further a bogus argument). May be its only for Ashara that Martin makes this exception in the whole book, or are you implying that he could be such a prolific writer that he has all this minutia figured out. (much as I enjoy his writing that is kind of reaching)

I can say beyond a shadow of doubt that when the next book comes out none of this clap trap will be validated. (May be some one more generous and patient would let the conspiracy theorist in on an important detail that Martin has not left up to speculation. A woman who has been "violated" need not bring the baby to term. Rather than engage in the silly hijinx he proposes she would just take moon tea and that would be the end of it. Not this nonsensical baby swapping theories. But conspiracy theorists never let "details" get in the way of their yarns, do they?

[MtnLion]

I can say beyond a shadow of doubt that when the next book comes out none of this clap trap will be validated. (May be some one more generous and patient would let the conspiracy theorist in on an important detail that Martin has not left up to speculation. A woman who has been "violated" need not bring the baby to term. Rather than engage in the silly hijinx he proposes she would just take moon tea and that would be the end of it. Not this nonsensical baby swapping theories. But conspiracy theorists never let "details" get in the way of their yarns, do they?

So, you think that she drank Moon Tea and was done with the unwanted pregnancy? Why would Barristan remember a stillborn daughter, then? (Do look up stillborn before you say miscarriage, stillborn is commonly full term.) But, let me not spoil you for the future any further, just ignore. There are more than a few that recognize this scenario (Elia and Ashara swapping babies at birth) as fitting into the puzzle quite well. It is not based on any external works, it is based upon the clues that we have so far. If it is incorrect, it is incorrect, but we certainly know that fAegon is not a true Targaryen and that Daenerys will expose that little secret, eventually. If it is incorrect then Varys is closer to a liar than I believed.

[WhatsHisFace]

There is the possibility that the current Aegon is a complete fabrication. Varys says as much in his discussion with Kevan Lannister. What is real is not important, but what people perceive as real. As long as Varys has a kid that looks like a Targaryen and a plausible story about baby swapping, then people will buy it. It's a easier pill to swallow when the realm is in utter disarray and looking for a knight in shining armor to save them; a situation Varys has set up. I honestly think that the only reason Varys is doing this is to break up the spoiled child dynasty and insert a king that has lived a tough life as a commoner. Varys resents his upbringing and wants a sympathetic king that will care for all the people of the realm, just like he has been saying the entire series.

[Uncle Impe]

So, you think that she drank Moon Tea and was done with the unwanted pregnancy?

As I said, all conspiracy theories tend to meander into the mundane and twist everything to fit their "stories". I didnt say Ashara drunk moontea. I clearly said that Martin has clearly described the preferred method of taking care of unwanted pregnancies and that is moon tea. Therefore one can argue that if a character is presumed to have been raped she would have drunk moontea and resolved the problem then and there rather than waste time on the hi-jinx you describe.

If you havent noticed I dont waste much time posting silly speculative theories. I go by what is written in the book. If it says in the book that Ashara had a still borne well then it says she had a still borne. I am not going to go on silly imaginative trips talking about Bone way escapades that are no where in the book. (you completely fabricated that nonsense from your own head)

There are more than a few that recognize this scenario (Elia and Ashara swapping babies at birth)

Reality is not a democracy. I could careless how many others believe this claptrap. Your numbers will not somehow make that nonsense factual or realistic. No matter your numbers, you are believing in stories you wrote in your own heads. Not what Martin wrote.

t is based upon the clues that we have so far.

Yes you have many "clues". Kinda like how Barristan talks of a Ashara's violation and a still borne baby then some how you arrive at a fully birthed baby swapped for this and the other. Sorry man, but there is no way any one can take your claims seriously. Any honest person would tell you to get off the sauce and come back to reality. I know to you this sounds a logical argument (aliens creating crop circles sound like logical conclusions to millions across the world) but it is utter rubbish to those who have read the book and understand it.

but we certainly know that fAegon is not a true Targaryen

I wont apologize for refusing to take some ones tall tales as fact! I can prove without any tortured logic or made up explanations about impassable passes, pregnancies or imagined meetings and conspiracies that Aegon is indeed a Targaryen. You on the other hand need to make up really nonsensical arguments about snow blocked passes and imagined scenarios (like the Ashara baby swap) that never happened any where in the book but only in your head.

With that as the basis of your theories, there can be no limit to what you "know". That is exactly why I can boldly say that come the next book your stories will be discredited as complete nonsense.

[Uncle Impe]

There is the possibility that the current Aegon is a complete fabrication. Varys says as much in his discussion with Kevan Lannister.

I have read these books cover to cover at least 3 times. I can proudly say that this statement is completely bogus and no where in the book does Varys suggest Aegon is fake! May be you have another version of the book than I do. Care to post the line where Varys suggests Aegon is fake.

Ps..I hope its not that silly nonsense about Varys not using Aegon's last name.

[Usurper's Dog]

I have read these books cover to cover at least 3 times. I can proudly say that this statement is completely bogus and no where in the book does Varys suggest Aegon is fake! May be you have another version of the book than I do. Care to post the line where Varys suggests Aegon is fake.

Ps..I hope its not that silly nonsense about Varys not using Aegon's last name.

Amen.

[Meddler]

I've said this in a couple places, but I'll say it again here--while I don't have a particularly strong opinion whether Aegon is who Varys claims he is or not, I'm a) pretty certain there's meant to be some ambiguity here, B ) not certain it matters whether he's the real deal or not, and c) not convinced we'll ever find out conclusively one way or the other.

To the first point, part of what makes ASoIaF so good is Martin's use of the limited and highly fallible third person narrative device. Many important characters also serve as narrators for the story, and as narrators, their knowledge, and thus the information the share with the reader, is both limited and fallible (the best example of this fallibility being when Sansa remembers being kissed by the Hound, which she wasn't).

There are only two characters that we know of who can conclusively verify Varys' story about what happened to Aegon during the sack of King's Landing--Varys himself and the father of the Pisswater Prince. As we've never met the father of the Pisswater Prince (and are unlikely to), and Varys isn't someone whose perspective the reader is ever privy to, we're left with nothing but Varys' word on the events that took place that day. The same Varys who is perpetually deceiving his peers by moving in disguise through hidden tunnels, who was plotting his King's downfall long before Lancel Lannister ever fed him fortified wine, who warned Ser Jorah about the assasination attempt on Dany while assuring Robert he agreed that she must be killed. This is not a man to be taken at his word.

Of course, Varys' track record of dishonesty is not itself evidence that Aegon is not who he is claimed to be, simply that the credibility of Varys' word is questionable, and that it's plausible he could be lying. There is additional evidence that Young Griff is Aegon--specifically his hair color, eye color, the fact that he's been raised under the identity of Aegon, and the fact that Varys remains insistent upon his version of events even to a dying Kevan Lannister. This is all far from conclusive, however. Throw in the cryptic whispers about a Mummers Dragon, the Black Dragon sign rusting to Red, mystery surrounding Lemore's identity, and of course the fact that very little of what happens in ASoIaF is at it appears on it's face, and there's more than enough to give the reader pause and wonder if Young Griff may be the product of yet another web of lies and intrigue.

As to the second point--what is clear, and has been mentioned numerous times by multiple parties on all different sides of this issue, is that if and when Young Griff lands on the shores of Westeros and begins a campaign to claim the Iron Throne, there will be powerful houses in the Seven Kingdoms who explicitly doubt his legitimacy. This seems infinitely more important than his actual legitimacy, since there's so little potential for uncovering additional evidence one way or the other. No one in the Seven Kingdoms even suspected Aegon might be alive and well besides Varys. He wasn't holding court in exile. There was no report of a possible baby-swap during the sack. And as far as the Lannisters, Freys, Boltons, Tyrells, King's Men, Queen's Men, and Iron Fleet are concerned, the best evidence that Young Griff is anything but a pretender is the word of a master-thief and spy turned traitor and the fact that he looks like a Targaryen, or maybe a Dayne, or a Velaryon, or half the women in the pleasure houses of Lys.

As for the third point, if it's accepted that there's meant to be at least a hint of ambiguity to Aegon's background, and that a good portion of Westeros will reject his legitimacy, I'm not sure it's all that important if we find out whether he's the real deal or not. This isn't like the situation with Jon Snow. From the beginning, the question of who Jon Snow's parents are was explicitly raised and given an emotional charge. Not so with Aegon. The ambiguity surrounding his background serves a different purpose--to further destabilize Westerosi politics, further fragment the loyalty of the nobility, and give Dany either a powerful potential ally or rival depending on how things break. It's perfectly plausible to conceive of a satisfying ending where Aegon's background remains ambiguous.

[MtnLion]

I can prove without any tortured logic or made up explanations . . . that Aegon is indeed a Targaryen.

Oh, please do, since so many of us are doubters, you may just shed light on the future as it is to be written (not). :P

[MtnLion]

With the prophecies about the fake dragon being cheered by crowds, there must a fake Targaryen in the story. fAegon is certainly measuring up to be that fake Targaryen. So, Varys and Illyrio are plotting on placing their puppet on the throne. There are three logical ways for them to have acquired their puppet:

1. It is truly Aegon, but he is not as he seems (as I have described)
   
2. It is Illyrio and Serra's child born at just the right time
   
3. It is some random whore's son from Lys or other Essos location (where Valyrian appearance is relatively normal and various Targaryens have left their bastards)
   

Jon Connington did not take on fAegon before he was five years or so of age. Perhaps Lemore knows more about the very early years of fAegon's life. Varys and Illyrio are encouraging fAegon to woo Daenerys in hopes of gaining a measure of legitmacy from her. They also seized on the fortuitously acquired Tyrion Lannister to offer a measure of legitmacy.

[Meddler]

One possibility I'm a bit surprised doesn't come up more often (and again, I have very little opinion as to whether Young Griff is actually Aegon Targaryen or not, my opinion is that it's left intentionally ambiguous and may remain that way) is that Lemore is Young Griff's mother. At around 40ish she'd be the right age, and there's evidence that she's given birth. Obviously that's the entirety of the connection, but I don't really think there's much more to the idea that he's Serra and Illyrio's child or any other particular matching aside from Rhaegar and Elia (which, again, is somewhat dubious, but the only specific pairing there's any kind of hard evidence for, if you can call Varys' testimony hard evidence). Under the hypothesis that he's not Aegon, it's sort of the Ockham's Razor answer to why this mysterious child-bearing Septa cares so much about what happens to Young Griff.

The problem here is that he doesn't seem to look much like Lemore, but by the same token, if he is in fact the progeny of Rhaegar and Elia, he doesn't look much like Elia either, so that's not really much of a concern.

[Uncle Impe]

It would be nice if we had an option to delete posts....I double posted and this is the only way I can see to remedy the double post

[Uncle Impe]

1. 
   
2. It is Illyrio and Serra's child born at just the right time
   
   
3. It is some random whore's son from Lys or other Essos location (where Valyrian appearance is relatively normal and various Targaryens have left their bastards)
   

Like I have said and will say again. Some people are just given to believing in mundane nonsensical clap trap. It is simply in their genes to ignore the truth and opt for the morose. One of these days a scientist will probably confirm that conspiracy theorists are addicted to some yet unknown chemical released by the brain when they conjure up unicorns, aliens and shooters on the grassy knoll. (a chemical probably unlike adrenaline).

Take this silly nonsense that Aegon is Illyrio and Serra's son. Where do I begin to discredit such nonsense. It is clearly made up in his own head. He simply writes this clap trap and feels we should just take it as it is. That Serra birthed a boy is a script only present in his head. Its like trying to convince a 5 year old that Santa doesnt exist (though in that case the five year old would have every right to believe in Santa because the people the child trusts have told it so and it has seen the gifts brought down the chimney by the fat man on a 7 reindeer sleigh)

Jon Connington did not take on fAegon before he was five years or so of age. Perhaps Lemore knows more about the very early years of fAegon's life. Varys and Illyrio are encouraging fAegon to woo Daenerys in hopes of gaining a measure of legitmacy from her. They also seized on the fortuitously acquired Tyrion Lannister to offer a measure of legitmacy.

Now remember folks this is the same guy who was prattling on about winter weather and blocked passes in hopes of making his clap trap theories seem logical. Now all of a sudden his perceptive ability seems to have failed him rather conveniently. It is left upon me to yet again point out the glaring holes in his nonsensical theory. (Its ironic how this line of reasoning parallels the "Birthers"...LEts examine his statment. the holes are obvious to those who dont indulge in this flights of fancy but let me break it down)

Jon Connington did not take on fAegon before he was five years or so of age.

This is perhaps the best evidence for why Aegon is indeed a Targaryen. The best friend of the father should be at the very least able to identify his friend's son. Yes I have read stupid nonsense from people claiming they have so and so nephew of theirs who looks like Shaka Zulu while they have no Zulu blood in their family. I always want to scream out to these people "Hey bozos, Martin is not writing about your weirdo family. He is writing a book about a world he created dont go comparing his book to your current world view. It is just silly.

One can fairly argue that Martin specifically dismissed all potential ambiguity of the boys heritage by placing Jon Con on the scene, but no, apparently this wasnt good enough for the birther type crowd.

Varys and Illyrio are encouraging fAegon to woo Daenerys in hopes of gaining a measure of legitmacy from her.

Wait one second, Illyrio and Varys have been hatching this plan for the last 16? So when they sold Dany to Drogo they fully expected Drogo to kill Viserys in a fit of rage instead of giving him 50,000 dothraki screamers to re-install Viserys as the king , then Drogo dying and leaving Dany in peril that she barely survives with three dragons...

They planned all this exactly this way so that Aegon could gain a measure of legitimacy? Seriously you have reduced Dany's role to this? I cant ask if you are serious with this crap. I know you are as serious as some one demanding for OBama's original birth certificate because it makes sense to you that there has been a multi decade long conspiracy to install a kenyan as the president of the USA. Your arguments parallel birthers arguments quite well. This is yet proof of my conclusion about those who like these silly conspiracy theories. Their lack of objective thinking when it suits them is really pathetic.

They also seized on the fortuitously acquired Tyrion Lannister to offer a measure of legitmacy.

This is piling on but trust me folks, the one thing conspiracy theorists dont ever get tired of is facts flying in the face of their arguments.

Now any one who has read all five books can see the complete absurdity in this statement. Tyrion Lannister's notoriety in the seven kingdoms even beats that of Theon Grey Joy. (I think there are more people that celebrated Theon's infamy than did Tyrion's) Who in the STranger's butt hole is gonna believe anything that comes out of that homicidal, whoring, stunted and noseless dwarf. For crying out loud the man saved King's landing and he was still the most hated man in the city.

Yet some one believes Tyrion Lannister can offer a "measure of legitimacy" to a fake Aegon? Oh yes! I can see this scenario on Dorne

Obara Sand: "Oh yes this is the nose-less midget that talked our father into fighting Clegane and lost his life. The same midget who killed his own nephew in a bid to steal the iron throne for itself and when caught, it escaped and murdered its own father.

Nymeria Sand:"Yes lets believe his claim that this "pretender" is indeed our long Lost Aegon. After all kingslayers and kinslayers are known to be such trustworthy fellows that do such acts of kindness.

Tyene Sand:" Yes the dwarf is all we need to prove that our cousin is indeed alive. He surely cant be a whoreson of one of the many whores of Lys. Not with this short little nose-less monster vouching for him!"

Honestly some things people say are so stupid it beggars belief!!!!!

Ps...At this rate, some one should start a net petition for Aegon Targaryen to release his long form birth certificate!

[MtnLion]

The problem here is that he doesn't seem to look much like Lemore, but by the same token, if he is in fact the progeny of Rhaegar and Elia, he doesn't look much like Elia either, so that's not really much of a concern.

Just as leaving Lemore's eye color out of her description, Tyrion's not noting any family resemblance maintains the mystery. It is very likely that this is deliberate by the author. ;)

[MtnLion]

Wait one second, Illyrio and Varys have been hatching this plan for the last 16? So when they sold Dany to Drogo they fully expected Drogo to kill Viserys in a fit of rage instead of giving him 50,000 dothraki screamers to re-install Viserys as the king , then Drogo dying and leaving Dany in peril that she barely survives with three dragons...

Daenerys and Viserys are the decoys in the pond. Varys’ and Illyrio’s prize remains concealed because the decoys are visible. They don’t care if Drogo kills or supports Viserys, and they certainly never expected any real dragons. What they want Daenerys and Viserys to do is remain a visible threat to Robert, so that he won’t go looking in any obscure places for other threats. If Drogo does support Viserys, and takes an army to Westeros, Varys and Illyrio lose nothing, and gain a prospective army when Daenerys and Viserys bend the knee to the rightful heir.

It may pay to look beyond the words written on the page and try to understand motives and story from an unbiased perspective. I have read your other arguments, and find them to be wanting. Tyrion in particular has his doubts about fAegon. The only time that Tyrion gives any indication that the boy may be a Targaryen is when he demonstrates his temper, but that is qualified with “may”.

You and others are free to continue to believe as you wish. I may not have revealed a secret quite the way that GRRM planned to reveal it, and I certainly do not have the audience that he has, but it is a credible line that can be taken. There are key passages in the story thus far that allude to it. If you cannot offer an intelligent discussion, please refrain from quoting or responding, at all.