Why does everyone think Aegon is fake v.2

[Uncle Impe]

his little birds can still go tell the tyrells/lannisters of Varys treason and plots to put a Targ on the throne no? i don't see how Varys revealing Aegon to be a blackfyre or a common boy or illyrios son to kevan changes what the little birds do.

lol...You make too much sense for most who post on this forum... :frown5: . Those who like to post mundane gibberish that is.

Take it from one who has been banned for simply pointing out rather massive holes in some of the more tortured theories this pro-blackfyre posters like to pass around.

Apparently the mods on the board dislike it when you point out clear facts and accuse you of being "abusive" to posters just because you break down a poorly thought out theory.

Be that as it may, conspiracy theorists are pretty much the same. (notice the guy to whom you responded, simply chose to ignore your question but move on to continue to argue his theory full well knowing that there are huge glaring holes in the theory..)

I can for one re-affirm for you that there is absolutely no valid reason any one can give for Varys lying to a dead man. (not a logical one any way).

[Uncle Impe]

As far as Occam's Razor:

• applied to Varys, he believes that Aegon is Aegon
  
• applied to Barristan, the stillborn daughter is really Elia's, he was misinformed
  
• applied to Aegon, he is Ashara's son of rape or seduction at Harrenhal
  
• applied to the Mummer's Dragon (Daenerys defines this to Mormont in the book, so read her definition before you object) Aegon is not Rhaegar's son and is fake
  

I wont bring up past posts from you that were full of way word speculation and had plenty of misuse of the English language. (That is not being abusive)

But no you are at it again talking about concepts (ie Occam's Razor) that have absolutely no place in works of fiction.

And if one truly understands the law of parsimony that you cant have grasped that well, they would remind you that its pretty much a law dictating that one chose from many theories, one which has the least number of assumptions.

EVERYTHING YOU HAVE POSTED HAS AN OUTRAGEOUS NUMBER OF ASSUMPTIONS! :dunno:

(apart from this

applied to Varys, he believes that Aegon is Aegon

And I say I must applaud you for doing what has previously seemed impossible. Ie..Sticking concepts easily provable by a simple reading of the book.

Bravo for you.. :cool4:

[MtnLion]

And I say I must applaud you for doing what has previously seemed impossible. Ie..Sticking concepts easily provable by a simple reading of the book.

Bravo for you.. :cool4:

But . . . (as Tyrion says . . .) we know from foreshadowing that Aegon is not who or what he pretends to be, at some future point in the story. Varys has some glaring holes in his knowledge. ;)

[The Manticore Knight]

I think it's just that he is not TPTWP, thus being a 'cloth dragon', even being a legit Targaryen

[Grizzly Mormont]

There is no reason why people think he's not who he says he is other than they don't want him to be real.

There is no evidence for him being anyone other than who he says he is. There are wisps and hints of vaguely possible alternative explanations, but each of them requires a leap of logic.

That's not to say definitively: Aegon is this person's son or not. Rather, there isn't evidence yet to make the argument that he's not who he says he is.

[MtnLion]

There is no reason why people think he's not who he says he is other than they don't want him to be real.

There is no evidence for him being anyone other than who he says he is. There are wisps and hints of vaguely possible alternative explanations, but each of them requires a leap of logic.

That's not to say definitively: Aegon is this person's son or not. Rather, there isn't evidence yet to make the argument that he's not who he says he is.

Tyrion, our best in-story judge, never supported his claim. At first he was suspected that it was a hoax. In the end he was dubious at best.

[Grizzly Mormont]

he also has not supported coldhands' claim. does that mean coldhands is not coldhands?

To say he "he suspects its a hoax" is something you just made up.

To say he has his doubts... I could get behind that. Any reasonably discriminative person would have their doubts given the circumstances. But we don't have the information to disclaim yet.

[Jon AS]

That's... a very weird argument.

As for "no reason why people think he's not who he says he is...": there are hints for a fake Targaryen showing up going back to at least book 2. Then in book 5 an alleged Targaryen with a dubious backstory shows up. It's entirely reasonable to question whether Aegon truly is who he purportedly is.

[Grizzly Mormont]

It's entirely reasonable to question whether Aegon truly is who he purportedly is.

Agreed! It is entirely reasonable to question Aegon, but we don't have evidence of his authenticity one way or another. so the answer to the thesis of the thread is "people think he's fake cuz they feel like he is fake."

but there is no evidence to back it up.

[The Manticore Knight]

Tyrion, our best in-story judge, never supported his claim. At first he was suspected that it was a hoax. In the end he was dubious at best.

Could you please quote the parf where Tyrion show his doubts?

[MtnLion]

Could you please quote the parf where Tyrion show his doubts?

That is the entire chapter where Tyrion interacts with fAegon. He suspects that he is supposed to be Aegon before fAegon gives a serious hint. He thinks to himself about how it would be apparent to even a dense person that fAegon is supposed to be Aegon. The only point where his suspicions about the boy's background are somewhat put aside is how he reacts to losing at Cyvasse. He does not outrightly say what is on his mind, one needs to understand why he thinks what he does.

[The Manticore Knight]

Please, show the passage where Tyrion suspects he is 'supposed' to be Aegon, and not suspects he IS Aegon...

[gingerpunk]

lol...You make too much sense for most who post on this forum... :frown5: . Those who like to post mundane gibberish that is.

Take it from one who has been banned for simply pointing out rather massive holes in some of the more tortured theories this pro-blackfyre posters like to pass around.

Apparently the mods on the board dislike it when you point out clear facts and accuse you of being "abusive" to posters just because you break down a poorly thought out theory.

Be that as it may, conspiracy theorists are pretty much the same. (notice the guy to whom you responded, simply chose to ignore your question but move on to continue to argue his theory full well knowing that there are huge glaring holes in the theory..)

I can for one re-affirm for you that there is absolutely no valid reason any one can give for Varys lying to a dead man. (not a logical one any way).

I think "banned" may be an overstatement on your part. You're an active participant in this discussion, no? Also, I get your mention of 'conspiracy theory', but, since everything we're discussing here is speculative until the next book comes out, your viewpoint is no more than a theory as well. As for the conspiracy, it's clearly in the book and orchestrated by Varys and Illyrio, whether Aegon is a legitimate Targaryen or not. As for Varys' interaction with Kevan, I do not feel it is concrete evidence of Aegon's legitimacy, and I don't see any reason why Varys would go through the trouble of giving the boy's entire history to Kevan, even as he is dying. He hit all of the points he felt he needed to make: There is a better ruler, he has been trained, he must take the throne, that's why I'm killing you. It doesn't prove anything to me definitively.

To address your problems with the moderators, when you are responding to a thread, ask yourself if you can say what you mean without being rude or condescending, and perhaps your troubles will cease. Judging from what you said above, you seek to belittle others when responding to them. Surely you can address problems in another poster's theory in a better way?

I think it's just that he is not TPTWP, thus being a 'cloth dragon', even being a legit Targaryen

I kind of think the 'cloth dragon' may end up to be exactly that... just a prop, but I get what you're saying. I think it's even possible that he can end up on The Iron Throne, be Aegon Targaryen- the legitimate heir to the throne, and ultimately rule Westeros, but still not be that important to the bigger picture.

There is no reason why people think he's not who he says he is other than they don't want him to be real.

There is no evidence for him being anyone other than who he says he is. There are wisps and hints of vaguely possible alternative explanations, but each of them requires a leap of logic.

That's not to say definitively: Aegon is this person's son or not. Rather, there isn't evidence yet to make the argument that he's not who he says he is.

I must beg to differ with you. I like Aegon. I think it'd be cool if he were real. I just think it's unlikely. But I also can't say definitively.

Tyrion, our best in-story judge, never supported his claim. At first he was suspected that it was a hoax. In the end he was dubious at best.

I didn't see any evidence that Tyrion suspected that Aegon was not Aegon. Tyrion was the one who unmasked Aegon to us as Rhaegar's son in the first place, and if there is one thing that makes me kind of doubt my suspicions about him, it is the fact that Tyrion (to me, at least) seemed so convinced.

[Big Daddy Dave]

If you go back to the point of Varys talking to a man who's dying, why WOULD he lie to Kevan? The guy is bleeding out and has moments to live, what reason would Varys have to lie? Hell, if he was lying, that'd be ANOTHER reason to gloat; he could have said how he was propping up a fake Targaryen and rubbed it in his face in his last moments. He didn't do that. As a litterary device, it seems to me that Varys' speech to Kevan WOULD be Martin telling the audience the truth.

Another option is that there WAS a switch with baby Aegon that even Varys is ignorant of. Information that'll come out at the most inopportune time for Varys.

[tsunad]

The evidence we have of Aegon being fake is the "mummer's dragon" prophecy, and the improbability that a baby Aegon was smuggled out.

Combined, both bits of evidence are pretty damning.

But what if Aegon is legit, and the mummer's dragon prophecy only refers to the fact that he's a pawn of Varys? Aegon, of noble blood, legitimate ruler, raised to be a very capable king:

"Aegon has been shaped for rule before he could walk. He has been trained in arms, as befits a knight to be, but that was not the end of his education. He reads and writes, he speaks several tongues, he has studied history and law and poetry. A septa has instructed him in the mysteries of the Faith since he was old enough to understand them. He has lived with fisherfolk, worked with his hands, swum in rivers and mended nets and learned to wash his own clothes at need. He can fish and cook and bind up a wound, he knows what it is like to be hungry, to be hunted, to be afraid. Tommen has been taught that kingship is his right. Aegon knows kingship is his duty, that a king must put his people first, and live and rule for them".

If Aegon is legit (and if I had to bet, I wouldn't say he was), then I expect Aegon to be an echo of Rhaegar. Rhaegar (arguably) was best suited for Kingship.

But we all know what happened: "Rhaegar fought valiantly, Rhaegar fought nobly, Rhaegar fought honorably. And Rhaegar died."

If Aegon is legit, I expect his storyline will be a subversion of the typical fantasy trope.

[Big Daddy Dave]

If Aegon is legit, he's as good as dead.

[mrlukeduke]

Varys and Illyrio have two Targs to play now. A primary and a backup (not including Jon). Which is which? Fake dragons or no, they're gunning for the throne and they have multiple pieces on the chess board.

I think Varys told Kevan because he wanted to. Simple! His loyal little birds may whisper of it – true, but – so what? The dragon's already out of its cage. The game is afoot! The pledge has been made.

"Every great magic trick consists of three acts. The first act is called "The Pledge"; The magician shows you something ordinary, but of course... it probably isn't. The second act is called "The Turn"; The magician makes his ordinary some thing do something extraordinary. Now if you're looking for the secret... you won't find it, that's why there's a third act called, "The Prestige"; this is the part with the twists and turns, where lives hang in the balance, and you see something shocking you've never seen before."

— The Prestige (film)

[Anima]

The facts known about Aegon:

He has purple eyes and silver hair like the Targaryens however the targaryens were not the only ones to have this coloring of eyes and hair. The daynes for example have sometimes those same features and we know very little of a particular Dayne lady (Ashara) and her baby who was officially a daughter.

He has a fiery temperament but well many characters in the story do too and they are not Targaryen. I do too sometimes and I'm not Targaryen (except if you believe that facebook thing to tell you which is your house).

He himself seems to believe he is Aegon Targaryen. But then all he knows of himself is what "Griff" and the others told him since he was a baby. And Varys seems to believe Aegon is Targ but then it was Vyseris and Daenerys that he and Illiryo bet on. Did he even know of Aegon before he landed on Westeros?

Besides that we have no information that supports his being a targaryen. And he has nothing to prove his own identity that we know of. So for all we know he could be a bastard whelped by a whore from Lys.

Why didn't GRRM show his POV earlier if he's so important? Even if he is a Targaryen he probably won't have a big impact on the story. He's like the Martell heir (I forgot his name) who came to Daenerys. He's come too late to be important. Compared to Daenerys, Jon, Arya, Sansa, Bran and Tyrion which were there since the beginning and some who came a little later we know next to nothing of him. There are only two books left.

If I've forgotten anything feel free to remind me.

[MtnLion]

I didn't see any evidence that Tyrion suspected that Aegon was not Aegon. Tyrion was the one who unmasked Aegon to us as Rhaegar's son in the first place, and if there is one thing that makes me kind of doubt my suspicions about him, it is the fact that Tyrion (to me, at least) seemed so convinced.

I, on the other hand, saw the entire time that Tyrion interacted with Young Griff that Tyrion doubted that he was actually Aegon Targaryen. He was mindful of what everyone said and did. As he took all of it in, he was not surprised at each turn, because it seemed orchestrated to lead one to the conclusion that he was Aegon. It is not what Tyrion says or thinks, it is how he thinks of it.

After reading my explanation, take a reread of the chapter and see if you don't agree.

[gingerpunk]

I, on the other hand, saw the entire time that Tyrion interacted with Young Griff that Tyrion doubted that he was actually Aegon Targaryen. He was mindful of what everyone said and did. As he took all of it in, he was not surprised at each turn, because it seemed orchestrated to lead one to the conclusion that he was Aegon. It is not what Tyrion says or thinks, it is how he thinks of it.

After reading my explanation, take a reread of the chapter and see if you don't agree.

In my last reread of A Dance with Dragons, I was definitely reading chapters that featured Young Griff more thoroughly just to see if there were any hidden clues as to his identity. I may have overlooked any suspicion on Tyrion's part that last time, and I felt Tyrion was pretty convinced the first time I read it. The one thing that made me question Tyrion, however, was in a later chapter, when he learned that Aegon and Jon C had taken The Golden Company to Westeros, and Tyrion thought, "He took the bait." On my last reading, though, I assumed Tyrion laid that bait simply so that he could return to Westeros at the head of a formidable army. I will return to this chapter in the near future with your explanation in mind and return to the forum with my conclusions.