R+L=J v.35

[Dragonfish]

If it was Varys who smuggled Aegon out I get why he would have considered sending the boy to Essos. But the more clever course was to take him to Dorne.

But he ends up going to Essos anyway. So what happened there? Why send him to Dorne, only to turn around and send him to Essos anyway?

Remember, Viserys was sent first to Dragonstone (not Essos), the ancient seat of the Targ's power presumably because it was thought Dragonstone was safer than Essos at that time.

This is an erroneous conclusion. Viserys was sent to Dragonstone by Aerys, who had no friends in Essos. Aegon was smuggled out by Varys (under this hypothetical scenario we're discussing), who did have friends in Essos, and who preferred that the knowledge of Aegon's escape be kept secret. Hence why he wasn't dropped off at Dragonstone. There's nothing here that tells us that Essos wasn't considered safe for the purposes of smuggling Aegon out.

The logical place to send the other heir is to Dorne. This is because his mother was from Dorne and he could expect help from his mother's family, if all else failed.

Ok, then why send him to the ToJ, and not to Sunspear or some other location deeper into Dorne? The ToJ was near the Dornish border and sparsely defended, which meant that any rebel force could swiftly come in, defeat the tower's defenders, then take the child (and indeed, that's basically what happened, or nearly happened). Dorne's protection in this case would be useless, because no one from Dorne could be called upon to help Aegon before it was too late. So strategically, the ToJ is an absolutely horrible location to keep the child, if your intention is to make use of Dornish protection.

Do not forget, when Ned gets to the TOJ, he has 6 men with him, not an army, which suggests that Ned preferred not to invade Dorne if he did not have to. And, if you could get Aegon all the way to Doran before Robert's people caught up with you, the only way they could get Aegon would be to conquer Dorne, which is thought to be almost impossible.

So is your point that they were only stopping at the ToJ along the way to Doran? If so, then why did they go through the Prince's Pass in the first place, and not through the Boneway, which is basically a straight shot to Sunspear?

Also, Rhaegar knew that if he lost on the Trident, King's Landing was not protected by an army, so Robert might take KL.

Rhaegar actually seemed pretty confident he wouldn't lose, so that's another knock against this theory.

But between KL and Dorne lie Highgarden and Storm's End. Highgarden is the seat of the Tyrells who are loyal to the crown and Mace has Storm's End under siege. So the road to Dorne is safe from enemy troops and sending the child to Dorne puts a huge loyalist army between Robert and Aegon. Sending him to Essos would make less sense at the time of the sack of KL because he could not be as well protected there.

Aegon would be vulnerable every day that he is on the road. There are bandits you have to contend with, opportunistic innkeepers or formerly loyalist soldiers who hope to ingratiate themselves with the new regime. Aegon would be much safer traveling by sea instead of land, and he would be much safer traveling to Essos. What is Robert going to do, invade the Free Cities?

[MtnLion]

5) The only known connection between Rhaegar and Lyanna is Harrenhal. If you forget that and examine the clues about Jon’s parentage there are quiet few that point towards Lyanna as the mother but none towards Rhaegar. Then comes the question, if Lyanna is the mother who could be the father and it’s then you remember Harrenhal since there is absolutely no other candidate so it’s conclusive it has to be Rhaegar. But to accept that imo one has to overcome certain paradoxes that I can’t.

But . . . but, come on, why did Brandon ride away from his wedding to King's Landing, with his friends and demand that Rhaegar show himself?

[Dragonfish]

2) It makes no sense for Jaime to mean Tysha when he speaks of a ‘kindness I never did”. Tyrion didn’t believe that Jaime did him any kindness concerning the Tysha issue.

Sure he did. He believes that Jaime tried to do something "nice" for him, but it backfired when Tywin got involved. This idea is pretty much confirmed by Jaime in ASOS, when he says to himself that Tyrion "loved him for a lie." What else could he be referring to?

[Lux in Tenebris]

Let's also remember than Ned destroyed the Tower of Joy after defeating the KG, so its not like Aegon could have been hanging out there after waiting it out. The tower was small, because Ned knocked it down to make the graves of the fallen. He certainly would have noticed a random baby and wetnurse just hanging out next to him. Aegon at the TOJ just doesn't add up.

[MtnLion]

Also, Rhaegar knew that if he lost on the Trident, King's Landing was not protected by an army, so Robert might take KL. But between KL and Dorne lie Highgarden and Storm's End. Highgarden is the seat of the Tyrells who are loyal to the crown and Mace has Storm's End under siege. So the road to Dorne is safe from enemy troops and sending the child to Dorne puts a huge loyalist army between Robert and Aegon. Sending him to Essos would make less sense at the time of the sack of KL because he could not be as well protected there.

As has been pointed out on numerous occasions, Rhaegar had no thought that he would be defeated. He was confident that he would return to King's Landing to do something about his father's mad reign.

Varys has a very close friend in Pentos that can certainly provide safety and security for anyone. Add that this friend operates merchant ships, at least one of which may be in port at King's Landing, it is easy to see how Varys could make a serreptitious move.

Ned is taking his army south to Storm's End to lift the siege. They certainly would not want to be overtaken, or follow Ned south when taking the child to Dorne, would they? Mauch, much safer to take the implied route to Pentos.

[Kosh Naranek]

2) But Jaime's Tysha reveal was foreshadowed ("Loved by one for a kindness I never did"). As was Tywin's hypocrisy regarding Tyrion's whoring (the tunnel to Chataya's built by a hand who didn't want to be seen as a John could only be one in Chataya's lifetime, and who had a tenure of some years - and the only two hands in questions are Jon Arryn or Tywin). The combination of these two indicated an explosive issue.

Mind = Blown I never entertained the notion that the builder of the passage was Tywin. I even remember thinking when trying to puzzle it out "well it was not Tywin." I kept getting stymied by Aerys' rapid succession of Hands after Tywin and gave up who built the passage.

I always assumed Ned never told Cat about Jon to protect them both. If less people know the secret, it is more likely to stay secret, and why would he want to make his wife party to it? I could see him wanting to tell them the truth for personal reasons but keeping them both in the dark meant that they were safer as well.

I wonder why Rhaegar did not say or do anything between the disappearance and the Trident? That seems a long time to keep mum while the kingdom is destabilizing.

[MtnLion]

I wonder why Rhaegar did not say or do anything between the disappearance and the Trident? That seems a long time to keep mum while the kingdom is destabilizing.

The tower is an isolated location, and news would be slow to arrive. Aerys had looked for him, but no one was able to find him. Rhaegar just showed up at King's Landing in time to march the armies north to the Trident. Whatever preparations he made at King's Landing were brief, by all accounts. It is possible that he decided to return when news of the Battle of the Bells and the linkup between Ned and Robert had reached him. It is no short journey to King's Landing, something over 1000 miles.

[Twinslayer]

But he ends up going to Essos anyway. So what happened there? Why send him to Dorne, only to turn around and send him to Essos anyway?

This is an erroneous conclusion. Viserys was sent to Dragonstone by Aerys, who had no friends in Essos. Aegon was smuggled out by Varys (under this hypothetical scenario we're discussing), who did have friends in Essos, and who preferred that the knowledge of Aegon's escape be kept secret. Hence why he wasn't dropped off at Dragonstone. There's nothing here that tells us that Essos wasn't considered safe for the purposes of smuggling Aegon out.

Ok, then why send him to the ToJ, and not to Sunspear or some other location deeper into Dorne? The ToJ was near the Dornish border and sparsely defended, which meant that any rebel force could swiftly come in, defeat the tower's defenders, then take the child (and indeed, that's basically what happened, or nearly happened). Dorne's protection in this case would be useless, because no one from Dorne could be called upon to help Aegon before it was too late. So strategically, the ToJ is an absolutely horrible location to keep the child, if your intention is to make use of Dornish protection.

So is your point that they were only stopping at the ToJ along the way to Doran? If so, then why did they go through the Prince's Pass in the first place, and not through the Boneway, which is basically a straight shot to Sunspear?

Rhaegar actually seemed pretty confident he wouldn't lose, so that's another knock against this theory.

Aegon would be vulnerable every day that he is on the road. There are bandits you have to contend with, opportunistic innkeepers or formerly loyalist soldiers who hope to ingratiate themselves with the new regime. Aegon would be much safer traveling by sea instead of land, and he would be much safer traveling to Essos. What is Robert going to do, invade the Free Cities?

I'm not suggesting it was a no-brainer to send Aegon to the TOJ. I am suggesting that there are a lot of good reasons why that would have been done. The only advantage I see (if it was Varys who did it) is that he would get to keep control of the boy rather than turning him over to the kingsguard. If it was Rhaegar, and he really thought he was coming home from the Trident, it makes more sense to send Aegon to his secret location. That way, if Rhaegar wins on the Trident, he can go back and pick up Aegon. If he loses, Aegon is close to the safety of Sunspear.

On your specific questions:

1. He later winds up in Essos anyway. My response is that Viserys also went somewhere else (Dragonstone) first but then wound up in Essos.

2. Why the TOJ and not Sunspear? First, Rhaegar controls the TOJ, so if he wins at the Trident he can go collect his son. Second, there may not have been time to get all the way to Sunspear before Ned caught up with them. Third, whoever is transporting him (Hightower? or some servant of Varys?) can meet up with whoever is already with Lyanna at the TOJ (Whent and Dayne? or Hightower Whent and Dayne?) and they can plan the next move together. Fourth, once they crossed into Dorne they were relatively safer and probably thought they could flee to Sunspear (or Starfall or another place of safety) if an army was approaching. Fifth, if it is true as some believe that Aerys had people looking for Rhaegar for months without success, they probably thought Ned wasn't going to be able to find them, particularly since he is with a band of northerners who likely would not know their way around Dorne.

So it turns out that the only flaw in this plan was that they failed to predict that Ned would find the TOJ so quickly.

3. Isn't the trip to Essos safer than the trip to Dorne? Maybe, maybe not. For Viserys, Arya, others, the trip was safe. For Steffon Barratheon it was not. My point is that either destination involved some risks.

4. Rhaegar seemed pretty confident he wouldn't lose. Perhaps. But I would like to give him credit for coming up with a plan that covered both contingencies. If he won, he can go collect his son. If he loses, his son is in just about the safest place he could be.

[Dragonfish]

1. He later winds up in Essos anyway. My response is that Viserys also went somewhere else (Dragonstone) first but then wound up in Essos.

Yes, but Dragonstone was at least on the way to Essos. The ToJ is in the opposite direction. So this response is rather useless. Do you have some other reason why the child would be sent to Dorne, only to then be sent to Essos? Why not keep the child in Dorne, after the war was over?

Second, there may not have been time to get all the way to Sunspear before Ned caught up with them. [...] Fourth, once they crossed into Dorne they were relatively safer and probably thought they could flee to Sunspear (or Starfall or another place of safety) if an army was approaching.

The second sentence contradicts the first. The people taking Aegon would've reached Dorne faster if they'd gone through the Boneway, so it actually makes more sense for them to go that route than to go to the Prince's Pass, because they'd be in Dorne's protection earlier.

Third, whoever is transporting him (Hightower? or some servant of Varys?) can meet up with whoever is already with Lyanna at the TOJ (Whent and Dayne? or Hightower Whent and Dayne?) and they can plan the next move together.

I thought the point of sending Aegon to Dorne was for his protection? Why send him to a relatively unprotected location just to consult with a couple other Kingsguard who are busy with other things at the moment? Why not just send Aegon to Sunspear while sending a message to the ToJ telling them to rendez-vous with them later? You can spend plenty of time planning your next move if you have the child already in Sunspear. There's no need to put the child in danger just to talk to the other two Kingsguard.

Fifth, if it is true as some believe that Aerys had people looking for Rhaegar for months without success, they probably thought Ned wasn't going to be able to find them, particularly since he is with a band of northerners who likely would not know their way around Dorne.

So it turns out that the only flaw in this plan was that they failed to predict that Ned would find the TOJ so quickly.

Ok, then the plan hinges on anonymity, not the protection of Dorne. If that's the case, then it makes even more sense to send the child to Essos, where he will blend in better, and be far away from the rebel forces. Sending the child to the ToJ simply keeps him near those rebel forces.

3. Isn't the trip to Essos safer than the trip to Dorne? Maybe, maybe not. For Viserys, Arya, others, the trip was safe. For Steffon Barratheon it was not. My point is that either destination involved some risks.

Steffon's ship was destroyed off the coast of the Stormlands, which are in Westeros, not Essos. The trip to Essos from King's Landing is typically uneventful, especially in winter, when there are fewer storms. And the child would end up in a safe location much more quickly than if they went overland.

4. Rhaegar seemed pretty confident he wouldn't lose. Perhaps. But I would like to give him credit for coming up with a plan that covered both contingencies. If he won, he can go collect his son. If he loses, his son is in just about the safest place he could be.

I would hardly call the ToJ the safest place he could be. Every "advantage" the ToJ has could be fulfilled better by some other location. If you want the protection of Dorne, then Sunspear is the way to go. If you want anonymity, then Essos is better. There is absolutely no reason to pick the ToJ over these other places, and that is why this theory is, IMO, weak.

[MtnLion]

I would say flimsy, especially being built by straw grasping.

[Bear Island Bruiser]

Yes, but Dragonstone was at least on the way to Essos. The ToJ is in the opposite direction. So this response is rather useless. Do you have some other reason why the child would be sent to Dorne, only to then be sent to Essos? Why not keep the child in Dorne, after the war was over?

The point is that Essos is a back up after losing the battle of the Trident, Aerys being killed, KL being sacked and the forces at Storms End giving up without a fight. That's quite a lot to happen. Going to Dragonstone was only after this happened. So going to the ToJ might have been the first idea then you take the kid to Essos after the rest of the stuff.

Steffon's ship was destroyed off the coast of the Stormlands, which are in Westeros, not Essos. The trip to Essos from King's Landing is typically uneventful, especially in winter, when there are fewer storms. And the child would end up in a safe location much more quickly than if they went overland.

True but all sea journeys have their dangers. Storms and pirates could strike at any time. Plus babies will suffer from the effects of sea sickness more, look at how Mance's kid suffered, Any sea journey will effect a child badly and has it's dangers. An overland journey at a gentle pace through currently friendly held territory is a lot safer.

I would hardly call the ToJ the safest place he could be. Every "advantage" the ToJ has could be fulfilled better by some other location. If you want the protection of Dorne, then Sunspear is the way to go. If you want anonymity, then Essos is better. There is absolutely no reason to pick the ToJ over these other places, and that is why this theory is, IMO, weak.

However it does provide a combination of the 2 advantages. It provides anonymity and is close enough to Dorne for their military support. Equally you've already got one VIP being stashed there so you have to accept it's seen as a safe location.

[Dragonfish]

The point is that Essos is a back up after losing the battle of the Trident, Aerys being killed, KL being sacked and the forces at Storms End giving up without a fight. That's quite a lot to happen. Going to Dragonstone was only after this happened. So going to the ToJ might have been the first idea then you take the kid to Essos after the rest of the stuff.

No, Viserys was sent to Dragonstone after the Trident, and before the rest of this stuff. So by your own logic, Aegon ought to have been sent to Essos after the Trident. Or are you arguing he was sent to the ToJ even before then? And if so, then why not send him to Sunspear instead? It's not like they didn't have the time.

True but all sea journeys have their dangers. Storms and pirates could strike at any time. Plus babies will suffer from the effects of sea sickness more, look at how Mance's kid suffered, Any sea journey will effect a child badly and has it's dangers. An overland journey at a gentle pace through currently friendly held territory is a lot safer.

Again, we're talking about a very short boat ride, compared to a very long overland journey. The two aren't even close in terms of their dangers.

However it does provide a combination of the 2 advantages. It provides anonymity and is close enough to Dorne for their military support. Equally you've already got one VIP being stashed there so you have to accept it's seen as a safe location.

No, it doesn't combine the two advantages, for reasons I've already given. The ToJ was sparsely defended, and could be taken before any Dornish forces had time to come to its aid. It's a horrible location if your intention is to take advantage of Dornish protection.

[Lady Tippy Wolfsbane]

I have always believed that in order to dismiss R+L=J (a theory that can be easily supported) you would need to create theories and possibilities that have hardly any support from the text. Why do that just to discredit a perfectly supported theory? It makes no sense to me.

[Winds of Winter blow cold]

I have always believed that in order to dismiss R+L=J (a theory that can be easily supported) you would need to create theories and possibilities that have hardly any support from the text. Why do that just to discredit a perfectly supported theory? It makes no sense to me.

Although I do subscribe to R+L=J I wouldn't go so far as to say that. If GRRM decides to go with Ashara or Wylla & Ned he could very easily say that he pretty much told us from the begining that that's the way it was.

[Twinslayer]

Although I do subscribe to R+L=J I wouldn't go so far as to say that. If GRRM decides to go with Ashara or Wylla & Ned he could very easily say that he pretty much told us from the begining that that's the way it was.

I agree with this and I would add that it is possible that R+L=J but that Jon is not the Targ heir either because Aegon is the heir or because Jon is not legitimate and Dany is the heir. Or both could be true -- Aegon could be first with Dany second and Jon a bastard son of either Rhaegar or Ned. GRRM can finish the story in any of these ways without contradicting anything that he has written so far.

[Twinslayer]

The point is that Essos is a back up after losing the battle of the Trident, Aerys being killed, KL being sacked and the forces at Storms End giving up without a fight.

True but all sea journeys have their dangers. Storms and pirates could strike at any time.

However it does provide a combination of the two advantages.

Bruiser you have hit the nail on the head. The ToJ was the best place to send Aegon, particularly if Rhaegar made the decision.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I have always believed that in order to dismiss R+L=J (a theory that can be easily supported) you would need to create theories and possibilities that have hardly any support from the text. Why do that just to discredit a perfectly supported theory? It makes no sense to me.

Contrarianism. Frankly at this point I think that's all it is.

[Twinslayer]

Trying to pull this thread away from petty name-calling and back to discussion, has anyone ever tried to reconstruct the story Ned told about what happened to Lyanna and where Jon came from? We know he told lies and we assume some related to this topic. I am curious exactly what those lies were and what Ned may have said being true.

Ned clearly told Robert that he was with Lyanna when she died. One must assume Robert asked many questions. How did Ned respond?

We also know that Ned confronted Arthur Dayne at the ToJ and that some of his men later said Ned slew Arthur in single combat. But apparently this was not true. Also this suggests Ned said little about Lyanna's death to Cat.

We know that Ned told Robert that Jon's mother was named Wylla.

It also seems Cersei thinks Ned lingered in Dorne long enough to father a child thee. Did he stay there that long? If so, why?

[Black Wolf Smith]

Mind = Blown I never entertained the notion that the builder of the passage was Tywin. I even remember thinking when trying to puzzle it out "well it was not Tywin." I kept getting stymied by Aerys' rapid succession of Hands after Tywin and gave up who built the passage.

Tywin did not care about Tyrion being with whores, he was worried about people see him with whores. With Tywin it was all about the image.

@Kosh Naranek, nice to see back around, still miss your old pic.

[FrozenFire3]

I have always believed that in order to dismiss R+L=J (a theory that can be easily supported) you would need to create theories and possibilities that have hardly any support from the text. Why do that just to discredit a perfectly supported theory? It makes no sense to me.

Denial? LOL

No, trolling aside, I think it all comes to Rhaegar being an elusive, controversial character and people struggling to accept him as Jon's sire.

But the power of the R+L=J story is all in its classical resonance. ASOIAF, once divested of its fantasy/medieval setup, has got a classical (greek-roman) archetypal core. Paris, Oedipus, Theseus, Aeneas, Romolus and Remus are all fate-bound (anti)heroes with highborn/prophecy-haunted/secret ancestry and an inescapable burden to carry on: their own destiny.

Jon's ancestry is just another tragic, paradoxical, archetypal trial on the way to his destiny fulfilment.