The Great Northern Conspiracy, Reexamined

[Quentyn Baratheon]

Northmen not responding to the Watch call and it befall to Stannis to smash the wildlings need to be answered in the next book. that's suspicious. That can fuel the Conspiracy theory, or just being a huge plothole.

[redriver]

Northmen not responding to the Watch call and it befall to Stannis to smash the wildlings need to be answered in the next book. that's suspicious. That can fuel the Conspiracy theory, or just being a huge plothole.

I name you WUM ser,or Troll.

[Quentyn Baratheon]

I name you WUM ser,or Troll.

Well, you have to wonder why they didn't send troops. Or was it just convenient for the author to leave enough space for Stannis at the Wall. There are available soldiers in the North, and we're told northmen see the wall with pride and honor and yet, it's Stannis who smash Mance Rayder. Why?

[tyrions sliced nose]

I think you guys forget who Stannis is. He will bend the knee to Jon not for the greater good, but because Jon has the better claim.

Jon doesnt have a better claim than stannis even if he is a targ, stannis is the rightful king of westeros. The targayans were beaten by conquest and the only way for the targs to rule westeros once again is by conquest as well. fire and blood or whatever.

[Free Northman]

Jon doesnt have a better claim than stannis even if he is a targ, stannis is the rightful king of westeros. The targayans were beaten by conquest and the only way for the targs to rule westeros once again is by conquest as well. fire and blood or whatever.

Well, by the time Jon's identity is revealed Euron Greyjoy will have decimated the Reach - probably sacking Oldtown along with it, Fake Aegon will have devestated the Stormlands with Dorne's support, and the Lannisters will be on the run.

Stannis will be down to whatever's left of his 1000 southron knights. Frankly, the Throne will be a free for all battle for supremacy, with right of conquest down the tube, as the Baretheon conquest will be history, invalidating any claim Stannis may have along with it.

[redriver]

And when exactly where "troops" demanded by the Night's Watch?

Well, you have to wonder why they didn't send troops. Or was it just convenient for the author to leave enough space for Stannis at the Wall. There are available soldiers in the North, and we're told northmen see the wall with pride and honor and yet, it's Stannis who smash Mance Rayder. Why?

[rivergirl]

Could it be? An optimistic thread? Here?! Thank you, Apple Martini! :bowdown:

I'm bracing myself for Jon to get his wish of claiming what he could have had if he were Ned's trueborn son... can you just imagine it?

Picture this: the Wildlings bending the knee. The Northmen bending the knee. The Boltons getting the fuck out of Westeros. And everyone's knelt down in front of Jon, standing in the shadow of the Wall, and finally, when the cries die down, Stannis, who's been standing upright in front of him the whole time, goes to one knee and agrees solemnly "The King in the North."

Nominations for the last chapter of TWoW, anyone?

[Quentyn Baratheon]

And when exactly where "troops" demanded by the Night's Watch?

Aemon send ravens to basically everybody for help. That's the very same letter Davos read to Stannis.

[Sworn Shield]

I swear the wildlings have been grooming Jon for command since day one. I find it interesting that Tormund takes a liking to Jon straight away, Ygritte is teaching Jon about the history and people of beyond the wall, Val flirting with Jon constantly in DWD and Mance and Jon have a very interesting relationship. What I also find very curious is that the Wildling seem to have a strange admiration for Starks, whether that is down to them being of the same people and worshipping the same Gods.

[Barty]

So some of the riverlords also know - they were present when Robb makes everyone put their seal on the will. Jason Mallister, Edmure Tully, Marq Piper etc all signed that will. They might be in on the conspiracy(or some of them at least) - this could explain the BlackFish's attitude towards Jon, He was trying to make sure that Jaime never guesses that Jon is the next King.

[Barty]

Another problem I foresee is LF - he could convince Sansa that the Bastard is stealing her birthright. Sansa never liked Jon and might actually fall for it or hopefully if she has learned anything from LF she could act like she fell for it and then kill LF when the right opportunity comes along.

[Gar Weg Wun Sygerrik]

OK, pretend Stannis lives. The north falls in behind Jon. Stannis has his 1500 knights, while Jon has the rest of the North. Mel then abandons Stannis as she realizes he was only there to lead her to Jon.

What does Stannis do? They're not exactly friends but I think it's clear there is some respect there. Does Stannis truly live up to his 'break before he bends' reputation or does he attempt to marry Shireen to Jon, and join their causes? Ultimately I think he'd be ok with that, and is the only path forward other than irrelevance and death assuming this Great Northern Conspiracy is true.

[Barty]

OK, pretend Stannis lives. The north falls in behind Jon. Stannis has his 1500 knights, while Jon has the rest of the North. Mel then abandons Stannis as she realizes he was only there to lead her to Jon.

What does Stannis do? They're not exactly friends but I think it's clear there is some respect there. Does Stannis truly live up to his 'break before he bends' reputation or does he attempt to marry Shireen to Jon, and join their causes? Ultimately I think he'd be ok with that, and is the only path forward other than irrelevance and death.

Stannis would never bend before the King in the North but if it is revealed that Jon is the King of all westeros then there is some small possibility that he might bend the knee. Or he could just take the Black and become the next LC and dish out some of his famous justice on Bowen Marsh.

[Runaway Penguin]

Aemon send ravens to basically everybody for help. That's the very same letter Davos read to Stannis.

That was call to the 5 kings, not to everyone, after Aemon got message from the Fist and then a lot of messageless ravens. Jon sent call IIRC to nearby lords when things got tough but by then North had its own Bolton problem.

[Sworn Shield]

OK, pretend Stannis lives. The north falls in behind Jon. Stannis has his 1500 knights, while Jon has the rest of the North. Mel then abandons Stannis as she realizes he was only there to lead her to Jon.

What does Stannis do? They're not exactly friends but I think it's clear there is some respect there. Does Stannis truly live up to his 'break before he bends' reputation or does he attempt to marry Shireen to Jon, and join their causes? Ultimately I think he'd be ok with that, and is the only path forward other than irrelevance and death assuming this Great Northern Conspiracy is true.

I'm still half tempted to believe that Stannis is going to convert to the Old Gods anyway. The only reason he follows Melisandre and R'hollor is that they demonstrated visable power that has benefited he cause e.g. Renly's death. However when Stannis takes Theon to the Weirwood grove I believe there will be something strange occurring there involving Bran, Bloodraven and possible knowledge regarding Jon, that will cause Stannis to have a re-think on religions. I also think when it is mentioned by the author that this man is iron and will never bend, he'll probably surprise us all by bending the knee to Jon.

We haven't yet touched on the letter that was supposedly sent by Ramsey Snow to Jon, is it seeming more likely that it was actually written by Stannis or Mance or the Northern lords or all of them. Stannis, Mance and the Northern lords are pretty much in one place, if there is some huge revel they may sent the letter as a way to get Jon to Winterfell quick.

Edited for dyslexia.

[Little Wing]

The North is coming!!! :commie:

This thread rocks. :smoking:

As for Stannis, if he abandons R'hllor stuff - why not be Jon's Hand or something? He did come to aid the Night's Watch and the North :dunno:

[The Meeraculous Third Reed]

Take, for instance, the letter little Lyanna Mormont sends to Stannis: "Bear Island knows no king but the King in the North, whose name is STARK."

I remember people wondering about the letter, wondering to whom Lyanna was referring, seeing as Robb was dead, Rickon and Bran and Arya were thought dead, and Sansa was probably disinherited. But now that we know that Robb did legitimize Jon and that Maege did go north with the message, the letter makes a lot of sense.

However ...

... If Maege did get the word out, which I agree it seems like she must have, why did no one actually get in touch with Jon? They could get a letter to Stannis at the Wall; why did no one send Jon a letter or make an attempt to get in touch with him about the news? And why did Bear Island tell Stannis to go piss off a bridge one moment, only to join up with him the next?

So to sum it all up — the pro-Stark northern families know about Robb's will and are moving into position, with the aim of forcing Stannis and the Boltons against each other and dispatching with the "victor" before "going public" with the will and reinstalling a Stark king.

The bolded part is the fly in the ointment of an otherwise strong argument for me. A relatively sizable amount of time has passed since the arrival of Stannis at the wall (and the writing and release of Robb's will), so it seems strange that the news hasn't reached him yet (be it through the Liddle, the Norrey or Alys Karstark especially). The North is treacherous but not impassible, and you'd think that given the body-blow suffered the North suffered with the RW, the naming of Jon as legitimate would do something for broken spirits.

Lyanna's age should also be brought into question here. She's nine (I think) at the time she sends the letter, perhaps revealing a degree of childishness in the form of "no, not you, only him/them!" even if there are "no" Starks remaining.

However, there is perhaps a caveat to this, which lies within the geography of the North. Mormont's and Glover's seats are both located in the NW of the North, Bear Island and Deepwood Motte. I personally think that these two would have felt more/most comfortable sending the information they know to their own houses. As such, the knowledge of Jon's legitimacy is localised to the NW (perhaps further down) of the North. Hence why some of the mountain clans may know about Jon (Flint and Norrey at the Wall), given that they live in that region.

Contrast this with the houses that we know are present at Ramsay's wedding. Umber (far North), Cerywn (close to Winterfell), Manderly (East of WF), Hornwood and I think house Flint of Widow's Watch (if they are the Eastern house). With the exception of the Dustins and Ryswells (who, given the nature of Lady Barbrey to keep her cards close to her chest), these houses are a sizable distance away from where Maege and Robett may have sent their info. If this is the case, many Northern houses could still be living in ignorance because of their presence at WF. The information is diffusing through the North, but currently only exists as (semi) common knowledge in the NW part of the region.

Hope that was all clear.

As for Davos and Rickon, there's the description of Manderly being a little too happy at the wedding. I suspect that Robett Glover is "hanging back," somewhere close to Winterfell but out of sight, ready to move in with reinforcements if something happens. I think that Manderly's good mood is caused, in part, from learning off-screen from Glover that Davos has come back with Rickon. Meaning, Rickon is in northern custody. Obviously this won't be confirmed or disproved until the next book, but that's my hypothesis.

I must say that I disagree, mainly because I don't think the timing adds up. IIRC, there are only a few weeks between Manderly and Davos parting ways and the end of ADWD. Skagos is a long way from White Harbour and I imagine Davos' orders were to return Rickon back to Manderly's keep, not just to the mainland of the "North". It just seems too long a trip for Davos to undertake (in autumn/winter time too) in the time available (not to mention that the info (along with presumably Rickon and Shaggydog) will also have to travel up towards Winterfell from White Harbour). I'm also of the opinion that getting Rickon, Osha and the Skagosi onside will not be plain sailing (sorry sorry) for Davos.

I also don't want to believe this simply because a wish to see and know more about Skagos is my most eagerly anticipated plot strand for TWOW. So, with all due respect, I hope that on this point you are very much mistaken :P.

[Bayard]

This conspiracy is not a theory, it's a fact. The only thing we don't know is how many houses know about it. The big question is Manderly, and I think Apple Martini gave enough proof to convince me he's on it too. I am not so sure that he knew when he sent Davos... it took some time until he got to Winterfell, not to mention that he might have been informed right there, it was a meeting for all the Northern houses. I've been also convinced for a long time that Lady Dustin is on the side of the Starks, she may hate them, but she can't let the North fall in the hands of Ramsay... Does she know about the will?? don't know, no proof for or against, I think she would have been a too big risk to be informed, but who knows. I've seen the idea of Alys Karstark knowing as well. That's just silly, why would they tell a girl so young with no power??? This is an only "Need to know" stuff.

What I find it interesting is what this conspiracy implies. These Northern houses, think themselves harsher, tougher then the southern nobles, more just and honorable, but in the end they are just the same. They have their plans, they play the game of thrones (the Winterfell throne in this case), imagine battles, manipulate other lords and completely ignore the real threat. This conspiracy actually gives us the first strong possible reason for why they didn't go to the Wall to stop the Wildlings. The NW did send letters to all the castles in the North, and none of them came to their aid, then or after. All these lords and clans, were saving their remaining forces to fight with the Boltons.

[E-Ro]

I really can't see the north just abandoning stannis after he saves them, worst case maybe they just tell him he can stay in the north untill he gets enough support to take the iron throne but all lands north of the neck are stark lands, he won't like it but I really can't see the Northmen killing him.

[Quentyn Baratheon]

I really can't see the north just abandoning stannis after he saves them, worst case maybe they just tell him he can stay in the north untill he gets enough support to take the iron throne but all lands north of the neck are stark lands, he won't like it but I really can't see the Northmen killing him.

Well they do have the biggest asshole of the Realm at their doors, freeing their castles and spreading his PR "I saved your ass at the Wall". Go ask him to go back South now...