The Martells (and the North?) and Asymmetric Warfare

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Apple,

I was wondering if you had any comment on this comment I made shortly before the thread was close:

*how the dragons would fare in the North.

Ah, didn't see that.

That one's a little too long-view for me, I guess? Almost sour grapes-ish.

[J. Stargaryen]

Ah, didn't see that.

That one's a little too long-view for me, I guess? Almost sour grapes-ish.

How do you mean?

[Mace Cooterian]

Apple,

I was wondering if you had a reply to this comment I made shortly before the thread was close:

*how the dragons would fare in the North.

I think you might be on to something and also explaining why it's taking so long to write these books. Imagine, if GRRM had taken the route of Aegon advancing past Moat Cailin towards the north. Sort of puts the cart before the horse with respect to the Land of Always Winter and the Other's....doesn't it?

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

How do you mean?

I misread it, sorry. Forget that!

But yes reading it again, that is what I think — that GRRM deliberately kept the Starks and Targs from fighting so we wouldn't have a precedent.

[Lord Damian]

I misread it, sorry. Forget that!

But yes reading it again, that is what I think — that GRRM deliberately kept the Starks and Targs from fighting so we wouldn't have a precedent.

By that token, might we see that happen at last?

[J. Stargaryen]

But yes reading it again, that is what I think — that GRRM deliberately kept the Starks and Targs from fighting so we wouldn't have a precedent.

It does almost seem a little plot armor-ish. But why? Maybe it's the skinchangers. Of course, had Torrhen not knelt, GRRM would need to explain why they weren't a factor during the conquest, hence the Torrhen knelt plot armor. Or as you put it, 'precedent'. :)

I think you might be on to something and also explaining why it's taking so long to write these books. Imagine, if GRRM had taken the route of Aegon advancing past Moat Cailin towards the north. Sort of puts the cart before the horse with respect to the Land of Always Winter and the Other's....doesn't it?

Well the story would certainly be a lot shorter -- or non-existent -- if Aegon had simply flown up to the Land of Always Winter and melted every mofo in sight. :P But seriously, I don't think it should be overlooked that GRRM decided against having the Targaryens and Starks duke it out -- and kept the dragons out of the North, in a battle situation -- the one time the story allowed for it. I wonder what he has in store for us if/when they finally do.

[Lord Ben]

Asymmetric war is as much about the will to fight as the tactics. We don't know enough about King Torhen to know whether or not his people would have fought a war from hiding against the Dragons or if he broke them up into small groups they just all go back to their own little Holdfasts or farms and live life normally.

I get the sense it was mostly about having the title of King and no neighbors called King than imposing a particular rule over them. The North has it's own customs, it's own laws (mostly), it's own gods, and everyone but King Torhen probably still bends a knee to the same person above them that they used to. It's not like the Targaryeans took over and installed their own allies as Northern Lords and stripped the Boltons and Manderly's of their titles and lands or anything.

Perhaps the Northmen simply didn't care if they bent the knee to Warden of the North Torhen who then bent the knee to King Aegon instead of fighting and dying for Torhen to keep a crown on his head.

[Longspear Ryk]

Guerilla fighting in the north? Maybe in the wolfswood, mountain clan land, or the neck...

I thought the north was mostly barren otherwise? Dont really see it working to effectivily if thats the case

[Dr. Pepper]

It does almost seem a little plot armor-ish. But why? Maybe it's the skinchangers. Of course, had Torrhen not knelt, GRRM would need to explain why they weren't a factor during the conquest, hence the Torrhen knelt plot armor. Or as you put it, 'precedent'. :)

Yeah, definitely plot armor-ish. What's even more interesting is that Aegon was moving away from the North when Torrhen came down. Visenya was working on the Vale but didn't receive orders to take anyone just a bit further on to White Harbor. Aegon pulled a pretty fast U-ie when he heard that Torrhen and his 30k came past Moat Cailin. It's like they were purposely avoiding it.

The one time we do see dragons up north is when Jaehaerys and Alysanne brought six of them. This corresponds to when the last direwolves were seen south of the wall. Coincidence?

[TheWanderer]

I thought the north was mostly barren otherwise? Dont really see it working to effectivily if thats the case

Barren doesn't mean empty. Well, okay, it does but not completely. It's not like the North is just a big flat field, there's foothills and rills and small valleys and lakes and woods, indeed much of the North is woods. Perhaps not many places you could hide a large army but that's the point, there'd be hundreds of thousands of places you could hide a dozen men.

It's like they were purposely avoiding it.

The North is pretty poor and pretty empty, there's not a lot to be gained from taking it. Dorne has lots of trade options and the other Kingdoms still need to be consolidated so I'm not surprised the North was low on Aegon's priority list. Doubtless he would've moved on it eventually, he just wasn't in a hurry to do so until Torren forced the issue.

The one time we do see dragons up north is when Jaehaerys and Alysanne brought six of them. This corresponds to when the last direwolves were seen south of the wall. Coincidence?

Clearly dragons eat direwolves for breakfast. It is the only logical way to reconcile the vaguely timed departure of one animal with the short term visitation of another.

[StagParty]

It was said that the Targaryan army was marching north with 45,000 men AND a dragons. Torrhen marched south to meet them, south of Moat Cailin (where it has been said that the north threw back numbers ten times their own).

Without Dragons, done deal. North wins. Minimum of 20k of the 45k dead by archers alone. (Ned Stark asserted that 200 determined archers could hold the neck for a time).

This was my dream scenario for the books. Robb and his bannermen holding off Southern invaders. Would've been cool to see Tywin try to find a way through the bogs, he probably would've been sniped by a crannogman.

[Dr. Pepper]

The North is pretty poor and pretty empty, there's not a lot to be gained from taking it. Dorne has lots of trade options and the other Kingdoms still need to be consolidated so I'm not surprised the North was low on Aegon's priority list. Doubtless he would've moved on it eventually, he just wasn't in a hurry to do so until Torren forced the issue.

There is plenty to be gained by taking the North. They have a vast wealth of natural resources to be exploited. Their wool and timber industry is pretty sustaining, for example. Dorne has an exotics market. And that's pretty much it.

When you have one sister taking the Vale, it doesn't really make much sense not to order her to make a pass of the North, at least White Harbor. Unless of course there was a reason not to.

Clearly dragons eat direwolves for breakfast. It is the only logical way to reconcile the vaguely timed departure of one animal with the short term visitation of another.

Clearly not what I was implying. But ok, I can understand how making connections would be boring or difficult.

[Old-Growth]

FWIW, I suspect that after the initial attempt at a quick victory over Dorne failed, Aegon and Rhaenys and Visenya decided to turn their attention to consolidation of what they had already won. That this effort was not fully successful we may see by the rebellion against Maegor, and the continuation of the campaign to suppress the Faith Militant under the Old King. By now we are fifty years past the Field of Fire and it seems Jaehaerys I also decided there were better things to do than to try to conquer Dorne, such as building the causeway thru Greywater. By now the Targaryens had more than three dragons, but lost all but one in the Dance of the Dragons. Balerion, Vhagar, and Meraxes by this time, tho' probably were very old for dragons, and one or more may have died of old age rather than in battle during the Dance. After the dance their best chance of taking Dorne by force was gone.

It is worth pointing out one advantage the dragons offered not hitherto mentioned, the ability to quickly cover a large area and gather information. If they were not busy with other matters, Aegon and sisters could have used this advantage to scout Dorne and it would not have been so easy for Dorne to hide its forces for, say, ten years or more. Whether or how Daenerys will be able to utilize this advantage remains to be seen.

[Mace Cooterian]

The one time we do see dragons up north is when Jaehaerys and Alysanne brought six of them. This corresponds to when the last direwolves were seen south of the wall. Coincidence?

That is an interesting notion. When we are told that Jaehaery's and Alysanne bring six dragons to Winterfell, this is after Aegon had conquered and Torrhen bent the knee. Was this a circus on parade? And yes, this may have been the last time we see direwolves until someone or somebody (CoTF) sends the young pups South of the Wall...including the Albino (say Jon) and the Stag horn in the mother direwolf.

[TheWanderer]

There is plenty to be gained by taking the North. They have a vast wealth of natural resources to be exploited. Their wool and timber industry is pretty sustaining, for example. Dorne has an exotics market. And that's pretty much it.

Vast compared to the Reach or the Westerlands though? I'm not just making up the idea of the North being poor (relative to its neighbors), that's stated in the books. Dorne's exotic markets offer huge potentials, and we see Dornish wine being a clear (and dominant) export throughout Westeros, I've never seen anyone mention Northern wool though.

When you have one sister taking the Vale, it doesn't really make much sense not to order her to make a pass of the North, at least White Harbor. Unless of course there was a reason not to.

A reason like: Already being involved in taking the Vale, probably not having much of a capacity to transport a army by sea, and my previously stated reasons. Sure they could've carpet burned White Harbour but without the ability to move an army by sea to take it (which the Vale does not seem to posses) that would've been the extent of what she could've done alone and that would'nt achieve much beyond wholesale slaughter, turning the North hard against you and reducing the eventual wealth you could export from it.

Clearly not what I was implying. But ok, I can understand how making connections would be boring or difficult.

That was meant to be a joke and clearly came across harsher than intended. I apologize (and blame the lack of sleep).

[Lion of Judah]

I think Torrhen's mistake was marching south, the idea was for the Northmen to use guerilla tactics to take out the dragons. Torrhen for some reason thought part of that "stealth" mission was marching south with 30,000 men. Not so stealth if you ask me, they had a chance to win if they stayed North. Once he came south they were sitting ducks. The Dornishmen had the right idea and Torrhen could have used the same tactics, he chose no to though.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

OK, here's a question.

Brandon Snow (who I'm about 98% sure is the guy Bran sees in his vision making weirwood weapons, so there's something significant about him) wanted to kill the dragons using weirwood arrows. He was prevented from doing so because Torrhen knelt.

How sound was the idea? Is it a coincidence or a plot device that it was never put into effect?

[Mace Cooterian]

I think Torrhen's mistake was marching south, the idea was for the Northmen to use guerilla tactics to take out the dragons. Torrhen for some reason thought part of that "stealth" mission was marching south with 30,000 men. Not so stealth if you ask me, they had a chance to win if they stayed North. Once he came south they were sitting ducks. The Dornishmen had the right idea and Torrhen could have used the same tactics, he chose no to though.

If Torrhen was paying attention to past history; then his decision to march towards Moat Cailin was justified.

Moat Cailin is ancient fortress on the northern edge of the great swamp known as the Neck, in the North. It is one of the North's most important strongholds, even though much of it now stands in ruins. Its importance stems from the fact that it commands the causeway, which is the safe route for armies to travel through the swamps of the Neck. It is a very effective natural choke point which has protected the North from southern invasion for thousands of years. The only way for an invader to effective bypass Moat Cailin is to win the allegiance of the Reeds who know of other routes through the swamps. Those are not on any map, known only to the Crannogmen, such as narrow trails between the bogs and wet roads through the reeds that only boats can follow and given the Reeds' strong ancestral ties to the Starks, this is unlikely to happen.

This was a quick cut and paste. Elsewhere, it is noted that Moat Cailin has withstood the test of time and confrontations. Not sure it has ever been taken when the Starks are in power. Noteable exception is the Greyjoy's in the most recent raucus. But of course, the Starks were not in control of Winterfell at that moment (Robb already had his head sewed to a direwolf).

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

This was a quick cut and paste. Elsewhere, it is noted that Moat Cailin has withstood the test of time and confrontations. Not sure it has ever been taken when the Starks are in power. Noteable exception is the Greyjoy's in the most recent raucus. But of course, the Starks were not in control of Winterfell at that moment (Robb already had his head sewed to a direwolf).

Can you remind me if the ironborn took it from the north or the south? It had to have been the north.

[Lion of Judah]

OK, here's a question.

Brandon Snow (who I'm about 98% sure is the guy Bran sees in his vision making weirwood weapons, so there's something significant about him) wanted to kill the dragons using weirwood arrows. He was prevented from doing so because Torrhen knelt.

How sound was the idea? Is it a coincidence or a plot device that it was never put into effect?

Totally a plot device IMO, especially if it's confirmed that wierwood arrows could kill the dragons, I think it would have been a sound plan.