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Maester Gandalf

Crazy Theory: Tywin Knew About the Purple Wedding.

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OK, so this is kind of an out there idea, but it's one that's been rattling around in my brain for awhile:

Tywin knew about the Tyrell-Baelish plot to kill Joffrey, if he didn't have a direct hand in it.

Consider: Tywin has effectively just broken his most powerful remaining foe in Robb Stark through the Red Wedding, simultaneously bringing the North and the Riverlands to heel, Stannis is on Dragonstone but is effectively powerless, and moves are being made to ally the Vale and Dorne with the Iron Throne. The only issue here is Joffrey himself. Tywin views him as an incompetent king, comparing him to Robert, a king that Tywin thinks little of (Although Tyrion thinks Joffrey is perhaps more like Aerys, a king Tywin also thought very little of, if not outright despises) in his madness and cruelty, and states that Joffrey needs to be taught "a sharp lesson." Not many lessons sharper than death, are there?

Joffrey therefore serves as more of an impediment and obstacle to any of Tywin's long-term plans.

Now, remember that Joffrey's heir is Tommen, pliant, biddable and malleable. In the case of Joffrey, Tywin has only two or so more years before he comes of age, and becomes some combined version of Aegon IV and Aerys II, with Robert sprinkles on top, that will screw the pooch and likely bring the rest of the Kingdoms into revolt.

Tommen, on the other hand, has another seven years, in which Tywin can directly influence the course of events in Westeros. By eliminating Joffrey, Tywin also removes a public relations nightmare in Joffrey, replacing the petulant, sociopathic King with one who is sweeter and gentler in Tommen. Tommen can therefore be molded into being a better King than Joffrey, as Tywin discussed with Jaime, meaning that when he is King in his own right, Tommen will most likely be better at it than Joffrey.

Now, with Tommen as King, one who will listen to his grandfather (I know that Tywin was Hand of the King, but was he ever officially Regent?) in all regards, Tywin can make another move: Releasing Jaime from the Kingsguard, irregardless of Jaime's feelings, and making use of him by returning him to Casterly Rock, perhaps even marrying Margaery to him, thus soothing the Tyrells, unless they insist that Margaery marry Tommen, but either way the Tyrells win.

Cersei would also be used, either to secure Dorne by marrying her to Oberyn or tying the Reach permanently to the Throne by wedding her to Willas Tyrell. In a single move, Tywin gets his prized son and heir returned, opens a spot on the Kingsguard that he can fill with someone of political advantage, and removes Cersei from King's Landing, who has shown herself to be recalcitrant, while also increasing political power by binding another region closer to the Throne.

This also brings up a key point: Tyrion, who Tywin has loathed and disregarded. Currently married to Sansa Stark in an unconsumated marriage. Part of the Baelish plot is to bring in the jousting dwarfs to enrage Tyrion, make Joffrey happy and goad his uncle, therefore casting suspicion onto Tyrion. Tywin sees this opportunity, and uses it to shift all of the blame onto Tyrion, move onto a show trial, and ultimately send him to the Wall, removing Tyrion from the succession of Casterly Rock. Since all marriages are voided by the taking of the black, and the union is unconsummated anyways, Tywin also gains Sansa as a bargaining chip. Remember, Tywin has already been discussing using a child of Sansa and Tyrion to claim the North under the logic that after the rule of the Greyjoys and Boltons, the Northerners will be crying out for a Stark, even one with Lannister blood. He uses that same logic for Sansa-Kept pure, and under Lannister control, Tywin can use Sansa. Promise Sansa to a loyal Western bannerman or Lannister relative, or to Jaime if the Tyrells insist that Margaery marry Tommen, and in a few years, when the North has had enough of Ramsay and the Greyjoys, return Sansa to the North with a suckling babe, Ned's grandson, and successfully restore the "rightful" rulers of the North.

Now, it's unlikely that Tywin was directly involved in the planning or organization of the plot, though not out of the realm of possibility. But my guess is that he knew of it and approved in some manner, seeing the long-term possibilities of having Tommen on the Throne and all that could result. But Baelish's vanishment of Sansa, followed by Oberyn's sudden championing of Tyrion at his trial, leading to Oberyn's death, threw those plans for a loop. Even then though, Tywin was adapting the situation to his advantage, telling the Tyrells that he would add Garth Tyrell to the small council, strengthening that alliance. But of course, Tywin couldn't keep his mouth shut and dies on the privy from his own sons crossbow bolt, and Cersei proceeds to ruin every plan that he had made.

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If the theories of Tywin being directly responsible for his father's death are accurate, then kinslaying isn't beyond the realm of possibility.

At this point, it is too early to tell. However, if someone did pitch the idea of murdering Joffrey to Tywin and Tywin wanted Joffrey alive, whoever pitched the idea surely would be skinned alive. So I can't see anyone approaching Tywin about this,

And in addition to that, if Tywin had played a role, i'm SURE that either Tyrion's inner monologue and/or Littlefinger talking to Sansa would've revealed as such by now. (either from Tyrion's genius-at-figuring-shit-out methods or Littlefinger-expositioning-everywhere pattern)

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Tytos Lannister died of a heart attack, I doubt that Tywin had anything to do with that at all. And I'm not buying that Tywin wanted Joffrey dead either, it makes absolutely no sense. Kill Joffrey to put Tommen on the throne while you're in the middle of 5 rebellions?

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I think that he might have wanted joffrey dead (who wouldn't) in order to get tommen on the throne however if he was aware of the plan then he would probably also have been keeping a watch on everyone so it would have been unlikely for littlefinger to get sansa away. Also there were negatives for joffrey dying like a possible worsening of relations with the tyrells, he also must have known that the dorne supporting myrcella was also a possibility

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Yeah, that doesn't really make any sense to me. It's very difficult for me to see Tywin as a kinslayer.

That being said I did sort of get the impression that Tywin was taking a wait-and-see attitude towards Joffrey. If Joff hadn't shaped up by the time he was say 15 or 16 he would have had some sort of "hunting accident".

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Interesting theory, and very well laid out.

However, there are a few holes in it:

1) Even if Tywin had wanted Joffrey to die, and even if he had somehow gained knowledge of the Littlefinger/Tyrell plot (both very big assumptions for which there is no evidence), it seems extremely unlikely that he would have permitted the murder to unfold in the way that it did. The wedding between Joffrey and Margaery was supposed to be the ultimate propaganda coup for the Lannisters - carefully timed to take place at the dawn of the new century, and with immense resources invested in it (at a time when the Crown's finances were in very shaky condition) to make it an extravaganza the likes of which had scarcely been seen before. Tywin even went to the trouble of making a brand new Valyrian Steel longsword to give to Joffrey. After all these preparations, Joffrey's death turned Tywin's carefully planned triumph into a very public embarrassment - and there is nothing that Tywin Lannister loathed more than being embarrassed.

2) In the conversation that he had with Tyrion about Joffrey's patent unsuitability to rule, Tywin insisted that there was "still time". He still had two years of Joffrey's minority left in which he was the de facto ruler of the realm, and it only makes sense that he would have wanted to make at least some effort to reform the boy (through a "sharp lesson") before writing him off and having him killed.

3) At this point Tywin still seems to have been commited to the idea of sending Tyrion to rule the North through Sansa after the winter was over. The loss of Sansa was a sore blow to Lannister plans, and Tywin's subsequent decision to hang Tyrion out to dry in the trial smells more like damage control than a premeditated move.

4) Although Tywin is not exactly a man who is famous for his scruples, everything that is known about his character suggests that Kinslaying is something that he would find to be absolutely, utterly abhorrent. Nothing mattters more to Tywin than his family: no matter how little regard he may have for his relatives as individuals, by being members of House Lannister, they are automatically subject to his protection. Even Tyrion, who he loathed, was worth fighting a war over.

On the whole, the consequences of the Purple Wedding were simply too disastrous for Tywin's plans on too many fronts to make it concievable that he approved of it in any way, let alone was involved in it. He lost too much (including the possibility of having three royal marriages to make alliances rather than just two), and gained too little, at too much risk, for it to seem plausible that such a cautious man would have made such a move.

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It makes a lot of sense. Reread Tyrions chapter in A Storm of Swords where Tywins gets pissed at Joff for say Tywin hid under The Rock while Robert won all the battles.

Tywin then tells Ser Kevin to take Joff to bed. Tywin then tells Cersei Joff is far from just willful and that he is stupid. Then he kick Cersei out and tells Tyrion all types of shit that would make me think he would do ANYTHING.

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While I don't disagree with your major points, and think that after the fact that Tywin did not bother him that it happened. I don't think he knew. IMO even thou he was a heartless bastard, he would never knowingly let it happen. He would have viewed Joff death as a stain on his/the Lannisters rep, and Tyrion being blamed for it as another stain. From his point of view, The death of Joff, made it look like he couldn't protect his own, and Tyrion would show that he couldn't control his family. I don't think he could have let either happen.

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I don't think he knew; this is Tywin we're talking about. He would've done everything he could to keep the plot from succeeding. That being said, if the plot does succeed, he is still in an ideal situation, and he comes out ahead either way. Typical Tywin.

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I could easily imagine Tywin being okay with Joffrey being killed, who in fact has been responsible for the mess the Realm is in for being an impulsive uncontrollable little shit with no redeeming values who could easily become the next Aerys and damage the Lannister name even further or even go to war with them.

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This makes no sense to me. I never got the wibe from Tywin that he thought that he couldn't control Joff. Most of Joff's accomplishments happened when Tywin was gone after all, and when Joff acts out he decides that he needs a lesson.

Allowing your friendimies to murder your kin really sets a bad precedence, and I can not see Tywin agreeing to it.

Setting up Tyrion? He has a use for Tyrion, Tyrion is annoying but loyal, and like you said, Tyrion has tied the Starks to the Lannisters.

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Interesting theory, and very well laid out.

However, there are a few holes in it:

*snip*

I think that post nailed it.

I might add that we actually see the beginning of the Tyrell plot with them inviting Sansa and then asking her about Joffrey. It seems pretty clear to me that this is where the Purple Wedding is born as an idea, so it can't be Tywin's.

While it is certainly a possible plot and not the wildest crackpot I've seen, I think that good crackpot theories should answer more questions than they raise, a few other things should fall into place that didn't really make sense before, so when it is finally revealed in the book, you get that "ahhhh I should have known!" moment. I don't see that happening here as the PW is already pretty well explained and this theory doesn't tie in any other events that are so far thought unrelated to the matter.

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I might add that we actually see the beginning of the Tyrell plot with them inviting Sansa and then asking her about Joffrey. It seems pretty clear to me that this is where the Purple Wedding is born as an idea, so it can't be Tywin's.

No, Littlefinger planted the idea when he negotiated the marriage deal, spreading rumors about Joff's true nature and so on.

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Tywin views him as an incompetent king, comparing him to Aerys (Although Tyrion thinks he is perhaps more like Robert, a king Tywin also thought very little of) in his madness and cruelty, and states that Joffrey needs to be taught "a sharp lesson."

You got that switched around I think. Tywin called him "Robert the Second", which Tyrion amended to "Aerys the Third".

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It crossed my mind as well. I would consider it a very small possibility even though i don't subscribe to this theory. It certainly fits with Tywin's ruthless character, who cares about his family name more than anything else, something Joffrey (even though technically a Baratheon he is still seen as a Lannister) would surely trash as a king.

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OP

Did you eat any of Tyrion's mushrooms?

Tywin wanted to reform Joffrey not kill him.

Nope, perfectly sober! :) Like I said though, it was a little bit of a crazy theory.

You got that switched around I think. Tywin called him "Robert the Second", which Tyrion amended to "Aerys the Third".

Ooops! Thanks, I've gone and fixed it.

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