Crazy Theory: Tywin Knew About the Purple Wedding.

[shiola]

That's assuming the Tyrells know Tywin is aware of the plot. I don't think they are. This is a LF job to my mind; remember the 'gift' of Harrenhall and the marriage to Lysa? I think Tywin may have commissioned LF to act as a go between: LF goes to the QoT and suggests the plan (not mentioning that the original idea came from Tywin). In that case Tywin would have no fear of blackmail since LF gets his rapid social advancement thanks to Lannister support. Even if LF doublecrosses Tywin and tells Oleanna the truth it would be like the RW all over again. Tywin has plausible deniability - it's his word against LF's.

Yeah, maybe. I just don't think the potential risks outweigh the benefits for Tywin.

[grand old duke of stark]

Tywin may be a ruthless old bugger, but if there is anything he takes seriously, it's family. He, above all people, will never be tainted with the sobriquet "kinslayer". He had managed to achieve his political ends without offending against guest right; it is unlikely would partake in a conspiracy against any member of his own house, much less the king. Plus, he would never take the risk of being accused, much less proven to have participated.

If Tywin had anything to do with the execution of the Purple Wedding, it might be like Henry II was implicated in the death of Thomas a Becket. Becket, being his former chancellor and best friend, had as Archbishop of Canterbury become the worst, most galling thorn in Henry's side. Henry is reputed to have said in public, "Can no one rid me of this priest"? And hey presto, some ambitious knights within hearing range did the job for him. Maybe LF did a similar job simply knowing Tywin wished it. Besides, Joffrey's murded created chaos and opportunity for himself as well. Win win Littlefinger.

[littleRickon]

so, why not kill Joffels before the biggest ever wedding on that very symbolic day where the whole of Westeros is looking directly at them and that cost a fortune to plan? What is Tywins benefit of wasting all that money and getting all that bad PR when he could just as well kill him a month before that, and have the actual wedding with Tommen, impressing everyone with a lavish feast that will be remembered and associated with Lannister power for a generation? Why spoil his own moment of triumph?

It's not totally implausible for Tywin to off Joffels, but it is implausible for him to shit on his own parade, when the same can be achieved much less visible.

[anonymouseuser]

Tywin may be a ruthless old bugger, but if there is anything he takes seriously, it's family. He, above all people, will never be tainted with the sobriquet "kinslayer". He had managed to achieve his political ends without offending against guest right; it is unlikely would partake in a conspiracy against any member of his own house, much less the king. Plus, he would never take the risk of being accused, much less proven to have participated.

As I pointed out in my post I don't think he's running any risk at all; in the event of discovery he would just put all the blame on LF. And remember this is Tywin Lannister we are talking about. A man who doesn't know the meaning of failure. As for taking family seriously and being worried about being a 'kinslayer' all I can say is I don't think he gives a damn about anyone but himself. The family thing is just something he hides behind - it helps him justify his actions in his own mind.

[anonymouseuser]

so, why not kill Joffels before the biggest ever wedding on that very symbolic day where the whole of Westeros is looking directly at them and that cost a fortune to plan? What is Tywins benefit of wasting all that money and getting all that bad PR when he could just as well kill him a month before that, and have the actual wedding with Tommen, impressing everyone with a lavish feast that will be remembered and associated with Lannister power for a generation? Why spoil his own moment of triumph?

It's not totally implausible for Tywin to off Joffels, but it is implausible for him to shit on his own parade, when the same can be achieved much less visible.

That's the genius of the plan; who would ever suspect? Plus I think Joffrey's slight about Tywin being less of a warrior than Robert stung him so hard that the satisfaction of seeing his grandson die in agony at the very moment when his power base was being definitively established is something Tywin would have paid any amount to see. (Plus the Tyrells bankrolled the wedding IIRC!)

[Arya kiddin']

Despite all the arguments presented here, no Tywin will not do it. He was too protective of family. And he wanted to change Joffrey, not replace him.

[anonymouseuser]

Despite all the arguments presented here, no Tywin will not do it. He was too protective of family. And he wanted to change Joffrey, not replace him.

He knew he couldn't change him; it was too late for that. And Tywin is only protective of his family when it also suits his purpose.

[Arya kiddin']

He knew he couldn't change him; it was too late for that. And Tywin is only protective of his family when it also suits his purpose.

In the end all it comes down to is nitty-gitties that do not get solved, and our own perception of the characters.

[anonymouseuser]

In the end all it comes down to is nitty-gitties that do not get solved, and our own perception of the characters.

I agree totally. Really it all hinges on our perception of Tywin and how far he would be prepared to go to get what he wants. Personally I see him as a stop at nothing sort of guy.

[StormRhage]

Yeah, that doesn't really make any sense to me. It's very difficult for me to see Tywin as a kinslayer.

That being said I did sort of get the impression that Tywin was taking a wait-and-see attitude towards Joffrey. If Joff hadn't shaped up by the time he was say 15 or 16 he would have had some sort of "hunting accident".

:agree:

[littleRickon]

That's the genius of the plan; who would ever suspect? Plus I think Joffrey's slight about Tywin being less of a warrior than Robert stung him so hard that the satisfaction of seeing his grandson die in agony at the very moment when his power base was being definitively established is something Tywin would have paid any amount to see. (Plus the Tyrells bankrolled the wedding IIRC!)

You can't just say that a plan is so bad that it's actually genius because nobody would expect somehting like that. Making unexpected moves is nice and all, but they have to be both unexpected AND well-thought-out. Robb attacking the Riverrun siege e.g. when everybody thought he would give battle to Tywin was genius, because it was unexpected and effective.

Tywin had enough chances and power to get rid of Jeoffrey where he is never suspected and which don't cost a gazillion golden dragons and damage the Lannister reputation. It was well known that Tyrion and Jeofffrey hated each other even before the RW, Tyrion openly threatened the king at Tyrion's and Sansa's wedding. If Tywin was OK with Tyrion getting the blame, he could have staged a fake poisoning or fake Moon brother assassination any time before the wedding.

[anonymouseuser]

You can't just say that a plan is so bad that it's actually genius because nobody would expect somehting like that. Making unexpected moves is nice and all, but they have to be both unexpected AND well-thought-out. Robb attacking the Riverrun siege e.g. when everybody thought he would give battle to Tywin was genius, because it was unexpected and effective.

Tywin had enough chances and power to get rid of Jeoffrey where he is never suspected and which don't cost a gazillion golden dragons and damage the Lannister reputation. It was well known that Tyrion and Jeofffrey hated each other even before the RW, Tyrion openly threatened the king at Tyrion's and Sansa's wedding. If Tywin was OK with Tyrion getting the blame, he could have staged a fake poisoning or fake Moon brother assassination any time before the wedding.

I didn't say it was a bad plan; actually I think it's a great plan. As for the cost, it's my understanding the Tyrells picked up the tab and just think how badly the Lannister reputation might have been damaged with Joffrey on the throne continuing (probably) to do things that would not only embarass his grandfather, but also cause even more problems at a time when Tywin already had more than enought to cope with. I also didn't mention the Tyrion stitch up because I'm not as convinced Tywin was behind that. It could easily have been LF, who had every reason to want Sansa free to marrry again.

[littleRickon]

sorry for lag.

I did think you said the genius of the plan was that it was so unexpected, because nobody would think Tywin was behind the assassination if he did it at the very moment they were in the limelight. But to kill Joffrey at the wedding where it so visible and damages the Lannister reputation is not genius, because it fails to be unexpected and good for Tywins other plans. He is overly concerned about the Lannister image and about projecting strength, so this was the singularly worst time to get rid of Joff, if Tywin wanted to. It turned what should have been a demonstration of Lannister power and strength into a demonstration of their mortality and fallibility.

To suggest that Tywin would accept that price or the emotional benefit of seeing Joffrey die at the height of his perceived power is differing a lot from how I perceived the Tywin character throughout the novels (cool, calculating, cruel).

I can fully understand and appreciate that there are good arguments for Tywin to want to get rid of Joffrey, he was, after all, a danger to the Lannister rule. The interaction with Joffrey chiding Tywin for not fighting earlier in the rebellion might also be a motive, even though as I recall, Tywin did win that power struggle pissing contest when he sent Joffrey to bed like a little boy.

What I can't understand is how he would ever chose the wedding as the place for the deed, or why he would stage it as an assassination in the first place. He has full control over the boy (he can send him to bed), so I think there are many ways he can get rid of Joff without making any kind of public fuzz (making it look like an illness, e.g.), with much less damage to the Lannister image.

[fat pink maester]

I'm not sold either way, but some points to consider:

-Tywin uses people as 'tools', and their usefulness is tied to the jobs he has in mind

-Tyrion has repeatedly proved himself useful, in a variety of roles; he also has a history of being submissive to his father's wishes and taking ejection from his positions (ie. an obedient tool, despite his personal life his professional one appears very loyal to his father)

-Joff has a history of spectacularly bad ideas, and these can come without council or discussion with his advisors (Bran, Ned), so has proven himself notably less useful to Tywin as a tool to be used/manipulated

-TV Tywin sees 'this' as his last war, creating/cementing his legacy

-Again, TV Tywin: a cousin of some form or other suggests something (i forget what exactly) in Tywins war council; Tywin dismisses the guy permanantly, and tells him if he weren't a Lannister then [insert whatever punishment he escaped by virtue of family connection]

-Tywin's 'firm moral integrity' is thrown in doubt by the discovery of Shae in his bed (although issupose this could just change his 'Lannister policy' of acting discretely when behaving shamefully, not abstaining altogether (something Tyrion may have either missed or not be able to hide from, on account of being a dwarf - although i could be pulling this out my arse and getting it all wrong)

Unrelated, but discussed further upthread: Who would oppose Tywin if he disposed of Joffrey, akin to a guy who murdered royal babies? Anyone who thought they had the power (power being a shifting concept in this world) and something to gain from opposing 'the most powerful man in westeros' - who presumably has a lot to lose/a lot to be gained from defeating by some measure.

[anonymouseuser]

sorry for lag.

I did think you said the genius of the plan was that it was so unexpected, because nobody would think Tywin was behind the assassination if he did it at the very moment they were in the limelight. But to kill Joffrey at the wedding where it so visible and damages the Lannister reputation is not genius, because it fails to be unexpected and good for Tywins other plans. He is overly concerned about the Lannister image and about projecting strength, so this was the singularly worst time to get rid of Joff, if Tywin wanted to. It turned what should have been a demonstration of Lannister power and strength into a demonstration of their mortality and fallibility.

To suggest that Tywin would accept that price or the emotional benefit of seeing Joffrey die at the height of his perceived power is differing a lot from how I perceived the Tywin character throughout the novels (cool, calculating, cruel).

I can fully understand and appreciate that there are good arguments for Tywin to want to get rid of Joffrey, he was, after all, a danger to the Lannister rule. The interaction with Joffrey chiding Tywin for not fighting earlier in the rebellion might also be a motive, even though as I recall, Tywin did win that power struggle pissing contest when he sent Joffrey to bed like a little boy.

What I can't understand is how he would ever chose the wedding as the place for the deed, or why he would stage it as an assassination in the first place. He has full control over the boy (he can send him to bed), so I think there are many ways he can get rid of Joff without making any kind of public fuzz (making it look like an illness, e.g.), with much less damage to the Lannister image.

Yes, you're right. That is what I said. Unsetting people's expectations of what you will or won't be prepared to do is always a smart move in my book. But let me address your points one by one

I don't see why this plan can fail to be unexpected when the most common objection to it among posters is that: "Tywin would never do that because he couldn't bear the disgrace to the Lannister name". As for being good for Tywin's long range plans, we know that he had a ready and more pliant replacement in Tommen, which would also give him....

1) Many more years to mould a future king more to his liking (after all we know Tywin thinks he is infallible and probably immortal too!) and effectively be the ruler of Westeros in the meantime

2) Take out Joffrey who will clearly be a disaster for House Lannister and the realm if allowed to continue his rule, especially in such turbulent times.

As I think was already mentioned above the tendency to accept or refute such a public "harsh lesson" (once again due to damaging the Lannister reputation) is closely connected to how the individual reader perceives Tywin and what notivates him. Clearly you and I have different ideas about this - 'nuff said. But I would just point out that to all intents and purposes Joffrey is a Baratheon king.

Now to the "pissing contest"; sending Joffrey to bed is an option now - it won't be for much longer. And although Tywin rates himself very highly indeed he's also a realist and despite what he says at the time, I doubt he truly believes Joffrey can be tamed in just a couple of years. After all Joffrey is the king and even if Tywin is Tywin there's a limit to what he can do to bring him to heel.

The choice of the wedding as the place of execution has the advantage of distancing Tywin from any connection with the crime. As I already said nobody is going to think Tywin could be behind it for all the reasons you and others have stated but objectively there are just as many reasons why he could be.

[littleRickon]

OK, then we both understand each others positions and agree that Tywin does have a motive for getting rid of Joff. You think that the plot was done during the wedding increases the chance of Tywin being behind it, I think it decreases it.

I can live with that.

Out of curiosity: why do you think Tywin needs to come up with some genius plan to divert suspicion away from himself. I guess he would pretty much be the last person anyone suspects anyway. What's more, he is clearly the one in power right now, so even if people did have suspicions, they could hardly say them out load.

I think the motive for a "smoke screen" is much weaker than the motive to kill Joff in the first place.

[anonymouseuser]

OK, then we both understand each others positions and agree that Tywin does have a motive for getting rid of Joff. You think that the plot was done during the wedding increases the chance of Tywin being behind it, I think it decreases it.

I can live with that.

Out of curiosity: why do you think Tywin needs to come up with some genius plan to divert suspicion away from himself. I guess he would pretty much be the last person anyone suspects anyway. What's more, he is clearly the one in power right now, so even if people did have suspicions, they could hardly say them out load.

I think the motive for a "smoke screen" is much weaker than the motive to kill Joff in the first place.

I think Tywin wants Joffrey dead before there is any chance of him getting Margery pregnant, which means the deed has to be done now, not in a few months time.

[joe42m1]

idk, kinslaying is so relative...

[littleRickon]

I think Tywin wants Joffrey dead before there is any chance of him getting Margery pregnant, which means the deed has to be done now, not in a few months time.

first of all: why? what is the problem with an infant son and heir to the throne. I thought Tommen's young age and gullibility made him the ideal replacement for Joffrey, as Tywin could have ruled alone... Isn't an infant king (any son of Joffrey becomes king when he dies) with about 16 years of undisputed Tywin rule even better?

second of all: if an heir by Margery has to be prevented, Joffrey could be killed a few weeks before the wedding.

[Ludd]

If Tywin was involved in the death of Joffrey, I think it was spur of the moment.

I suspect Tywin got wind of JOFFREY'S plot to kill Tyrion and may have facilitated a switch.

I do NOT think that the Tyrells were involved at all. There was NOTHING in it for them