R+L=J v 37

[MtnLion]

Perhaps a better way to say it, a great council is required to make a decision, and that decision may or may not put Robert on the throne, but it certainly would not put Daenerys on the throne. :)

Can you say feeble witted daughter?

[Tall-Talker]

This may be a question answered before, but assuming that R + L married, who knows about it and how will it be revealed?

If Jon's arc puts him on the throne* due to his claim to the throne being legitimate, Westeros needs this information revealed, somehow. Bran or Bloodraven isn't necessarily a believable source - Bran for being his "brother" and thus biased, while Bloodraven is a tree**.

Does Jon Connington know? Or maybe Barristan Selmy? Both are in good positions to get other Targs to help enforce Jon's claims.

*I'm not claiming to believe this is the most probable outcome for Jon.

**Shades of Monty Python here: "Oh, but you can't expect to wield supreme executive power just because some watery tart threw a sword at you half-corpse/half-tree said you were king."

If Jon's parentage is important to the throne story then I think it has to a big reveal. IMO, it can't just be one or two people backing someone else's story because the doubt of legitimacy will still linger with some lords.

In Arianne's new chapter we see that even Aegon's legitimacy is questioned and I'm pretty sure in TWoW someone will ask Jon C. about the supposed baby switching, escape and survival of he and Aegon. Jon Connington seems convinced his Aegon is the real Aegon and he's the one who will have to defend his legitimacy if asked.

That is why I think, if R + L = J is essential to the throne story, BR will play a major factor.

[Arya Targaryen]

First of all, it says " a highly modified version of agnatic primogeniture," whatever that means.

Second of all, the definition of "agnate" is "a relative whose connection is traceable exclusively through males," which does not apply to Robert.

Third of all, you have quoted the wiki directly without backing it up with a more direct source, and I shouldn't have to tell you what's wrong with that. I haven't found the SSM on which it is based yet, but as I recall, it doesn't use the term "agnatic primogeniture." It simply states that all male claimants were ahead of all female claimants, but it didn't specify if this included male claimants from other houses or was exclusive to male claimants from House Targaryen.

We know for a fact that Robert started to really,really fear Dany when she married to Drogo, exactly because her SON would be a threat to his power, since Dany's son has a stronger claim than Dany herself. And Rhaego technically is not a Targaryen. He is a member of House Drogo (you know what I mean). Viserys had a stronger claim than Dany or Rhaego. Or Robert himself.

But with Dany and Viserys on the run, Robert had the strongest claim through his Targ heritage. He may come from a female line, but since there is no direct male line descendant, he is the next in line.

Jon Arryn persuaded him, that Viserys is not a threat, because he is a child, away, with no army to back up his claim (yes, having an army is just as important than having the right claim). Dany is no threat either.

But Dany's son, who is also the son of a horselord (with 40000 men in his army) is seen as a real threat for Robert's power. Because he is a closer male relative of Aerys, AND has an army to back up his claim. If Rhaego had no claim whatsoever, only an army, Robert wouldn't have been as worried as he was. And Rhaego is from a different house, just like Robert, because both of them come from the female Targ line.

All of this is a direct in-book reference to the Targ line succession rules.

[Budj]

If Jon's parentage is important to the throne story then I think it has to a big reveal. IMO, it can't just be one or two people backing someone else's story because the doubt of legitimacy will still linger with some lords.

In Arianne's new chapter we see that even Aegon's legitimacy is questioned and I'm pretty sure in TWoW someone will ask Jon C. about the supposed baby switching, escape and survival of he and Aegon. Jon Connington seems convinced his Aegon is the real Aegon and he's the one who will have to defend his legitimacy if asked.

That is why I think, if R + L = J is essential to the throne story, BR will play a major factor.

I think I've brought it up before, but after reading the Dunk and Egg stories I think the dynamic of BR dealing with Blackfyre rebellions and knowing how important symbols of legitimacy / dramatic acts are to the commonfolk believing in a leader will play a role in how Jon's claim is revealed. The doubting of the legitimacy of Aegon and the worries of the 'mad king's daughter' are setting the stage for this kind of interaction.

Potentially crack pot, but a perfect example of this is Jon's body being brought to a liberated WF with him emerging from a funeral pyre in front of the North, some Ironborn, and Stannis' host. Sounds like an awakened dragon situation to me. Sprinkle in the heritage news later with some sort of tangible proof in a certain tomb and that previously mentioned grandiose event (would spread like wild fire) with a 'd'oh!' moment from the North. Once it was spelled out believing that Ned sired a bastard at the end of the war that started with the kidnapping of his sister by the crown prince and ended with her death (as well as the death of three of the most honorable / reputed KG members) sounds pretty silly...

[Dragonfish]

I'm guessing you have your Aegons backwards.

Yes, I did. I also sort of completely missed the point of what theguyfromtheVale was saying in my second paragraph, but I've fixed it now.

[Zupoleon]

Assuming a scenario where this "agnatic primogeniture" qualifies Robert as the heir (in a world where there was no rebellion), would he then take the Targaryen name going forward? I can't imagine that the Targaryens would instill succession laws where the possibility of their name not continuing would exist...

[Dragonfish]

We know for a fact that Robert started to really,really fear Dany when she married to Drogo, exactly because her SON would be a threat to his power, since Dany's son has a stronger claim than Dany herself.

Not exactly. From AGOT:

"And how long will this one [Dany] remain an innocent?" Robert's mouth grew hard. "This child will soon enough spread her legs and start breeding more dragonspawn to plague me."

Notice that Robert's issue with Dany having children is that they could end up hounding him for years to come, even after his death. He had hoped that the Targaryen line would die with Viserys and Daenerys, but now her marriage makes that less likely. There's no evidence here that Robert thinks he has a better claim than Daenerys herself due to the post-Dance succession rules.

Now, I will admit that Ned later tries to placate Robert by pointing out Daenerys could have a daughter, but I doubt this has anything to do with succession rules. After all, Daenerys' daughter could still go on to have a boy herself, and said boy could argue that he has a better claim than Robert or his children, since he descends directly from Aerys' line. No, it's more likely that Robert's fear of a boy has to do with the fact that in a patriarchal and sexist society like Westeros, having a male claimant is a far more persuasive rallying cry for one's cause (especially when that child commands the loyalty of a Dothraki horde).

And Rhaego technically is not a Targaryen.

Sure he is. Children may take the name of their mother's family if it is significantly more prestigious than their father's name in Westeros, and that would technically be the case with Rhaego, who's father isn't even native to Westeros (in fact, I don't think any of the Dothraki even have last names, so the only name available to Rhaego would be his mother's.). That's what happened with House Stark in the past, when Bael the Bard impregnated Lord Stark's daughter; the son ended up taking the Stark name instead of his father's.

[Jon Icefyre]

Do you really think that an institution like the NW which dates back some several thousand years would break their vows and abolish their laws for 100 men, or 200 or 300? We have seen how the NW deals with people who try to change their rules.

Also I don't understand why the NW would care especially for the Starks. The mere coincidence that the NW is located up North and the Starks are Wardens of the North doesn't mean that the NW owes allegiance to the Starks. I don't remember the exact chapter but I believe that 5 letters were sent to 5 kings asking for help with the eminent danger from the North, so I guess the NW is little if any concerned about who the king will be as long as he who is the king understands the role and importance of the NW and aids them when needed.

The fact that at present the NW status is too low and that they would sell Jon for 100 men means nothing at all. The same way the LC could sell him in order to be pardoned. But if that's the case there is no reason at all discussing how and if Jon will be able to get rid of his vows. Since we accept that the NW has gone rogue it can happen any way even with an ill justification.

The bottom line is that there is no precedence or a back door escape from those vows in accordance with the NW laws. It’s the dismissal of Barristan all over again and we all blamed Joffrey for that.

As I said before, the "institution" of the NW is not what it was before I think that was established when some of them decided/attempted to kill off the last two LC's. You don't understand why the NW would care especially for the Starks? Ummm idk maybe because the Starks(Bran the builder) built the wall their so grateful for in the first place, and out off all the great houses in the history of Westeros the Starks are without a doubt the most influential house concerning the NW in the entire history of the NW. It's been mentioned the Starks have guarded the wall for thousands of years. I'm not saying the NW worship at the Starks feet. But it's foolish to think the NW don't recognize and acknowledge the influence and impact House Stark has had on the wall for generation after generation.

Your point about the NW sending letters to all five kings further proves the point of how desperate they are for a kings help and how they would probably embrace having a king like Jon that would finally give them the help they need. If your the NW having a King of the North who is a former member of the NW and understands the needs and urgency of the NW along with the threat of the others, (it's widely known in the NW that Jon has killed a white) would only help their situation and make it more likely for them to strengthen the wall with the amount of men and supplies they need as Jon would be more likely than any other king in recent past or present to help them for obvious reasons.

[Arya Targaryen]

Not exactly. From AGOT:

"And how long will this one [Dany] remain an innocent?" Robert's mouth grew hard. "This child will soon enough spread her legs and start breeding more dragonspawn to plague me."

Notice that Robert's issue with Dany having children is that they could end up hounding him for years to come, even after his death. He had hoped that the Targaryen line would die with Viserys and Daenerys, but now her marriage makes that less likely. There's no evidence here that Robert thinks he has a better claim than Daenerys herself due to the post-Dance succession rules.

Now, I will admit that Ned later tries to placate Robert by pointing out Daenerys could have a daughter, but I doubt this has anything to do with succession rules. After all, Daenerys' daughter could still go on to have a boy herself, and said boy could argue that he has a better claim than Robert or his children, since he descends directly from Aerys' line. No, it's more likely that Robert's fear of a boy has to do with the fact that in a patriarchal and sexist society like Westeros, having a male claimant is a far more persuasive rallying cry for one's cause (especially when that child commands the loyalty of a Dothraki horde).

Sure he is. Children may take the name of their mother's family if it is significantly more prestigious than their father's name in Westeros, and that would technically be the case with Rhaego, who's father isn't even native to Westeros (in fact, I don't think any of the Dothraki even have last names, so the only name available to Rhaego would be his mother's.). That's what happened with House Stark in the past, when Bael the Bard impregnated Lord Stark's daughter; the son ended up taking the Stark name instead of his father's.

Robert fears that Dany's son will invade Westeros, with and army of his own, and in Westeros there are still people who would support him. Because of his Targ claim. Without any real claim he is just a foreigner, who attacks Westeros. With his Targ heritage he is a claiment of the throne. The difference is between the support he might gain within Westeros. Nobody would support a foreigner without a claim. But Westeros wouldn't be united behind Robert if the claiment is Dany's son.

If Dany has a daugter, then all Robert wins is time. By the next generation, that daugther may also have a daugher. And by the time the next male child is born, Westeros would be used to having Baratheons on the throne, so even if that child had a better Targ claim, he would be regarded as a foreigner.

But 15 years after the rebellion people remember. That's why Dany's son is a danger, while Dany's granddaughter's son would not be.

I agree that Rhaego would take on the Targaryen name, in the lack of another name. But that was not my point. I see what you are trying to say, and I see the truth in it, however (though my knowledge is not satisfactory in these kind of things) I don't think after a rebellion the rightfulness of Robert's claim would depend on whether he takes on the Targaryen name or remains Baratheon. Obviously, for Targaryens, it would be important. But there are no Targaryens left. If Robert wants to be a king all he has to do is gather an army, defeat everybody who may oppose him AND have some claim, like a grandmother from the previous ruling dinasty. If he has all these things, no lords would oppose him, not openly, anyway. And they won't care what name he takes on, whether he change his name to Targaryen or not, because he doesn't have to. I think when a new ruling dinasty is elected, it can be done for different reasons:

1) the former dinasty died out so they look for the closest femaly relative - but that means another dinasty name.

2) someone takes it by force - meaning defeating everybody who might have a claim. But then it has to be obvious who the leader is. And it has to be clear that he really defeated everybody, and everybody knows it.

Robert's rebellion is a sort of mixture. Robert rebelled against the ruling Targs, killing practically all of them (except for Dany and Viserys, of course). But still, it is not the second case. (That would be Aegon). In Robert rebellion I just don't see how Robert would be the clear leader who rebelled to conquere the throne. That was not the purpose and Robert wasn't alone (Jon Arryn and Ned also were leaders here). So Robert had his revenge on the Targs, Jon Arryn managed to save Robert's and Ned's lives and Ned found his sister (and nephew). But with the Targs gone, who should be the king? This is when one has to look at the succession rules: the next in line (apart from Viserys) is Robert. He just won a rebellion (clearly has an army to back up his claim). So he is the King, even if he comes from a female line and from another house.

[Black Wolf Smith]

But Robert is not from a cadet branch of House Targaryen, he's from a completely different house. The question is whether his claim would still trump a female Targaryens claim, and nothing GRRM has said has clarified that.

This is IMO only, but...

A male Targaryen no mattter how distance comes before any female Targaryen, Robert is not a Targaryen. His "claim" is thru a female only thus Dany being closer to the throne, takes precedence over Robert . If his claim was thru a male, he would take precedence over Dany.