R+L = J v 38

[Lady Green]

If Aegon is fake, how could both Illyrio and Varys not know it?

Its highly unlikely that the wouldn't know but not impossible, if they were told it was Aegon and how 'he' escaped then they might not.

[Gi_Varotti]

About the will. So, Stannis offered Jon the same thing that Robb did without knowing that Robb had already done it?

Jon refused Stannis' but would have he accepted Robb's?

I'm not completely familiar of the time of events surrounding R+L, is there a parallel between Reghar's romantic life and Robb's?

Uhn, I don't think so. Robb fell into a trap, Rhaegar and Lyanna were true love, that's how I see it.

I hadn't concidered that Jon might see it as his duty to leave the NW, but then again that makes sense, especially with him wanting to march on Winterfell because he believed it was his duty.

I think Jon will only leave the Night's Watch if there's no one else available to be Lord of Winterfell/King in the North and only after defeating the Others.

Too many crackpot theories. If Varys or Littlefinger knew about Jon Snows real parents they would used that fact against Ned Stark long time ago and/or GRRM would have left some clear cut clues about their knowledge in the book.

Yeah, I don't think they know anything about it and Varys was busy swapping babies at the time (if the other theories are true, they are good though).

Oh, do we know that Illyrio thinks Aegon is fake? I think that Aegon will prove to be fake for another reason, but I don't think that either Varys or Illyrio know that.

I think they know it (Jon Connington and Aegon are the ones being played) but then I also think that Varys is a Blackfyre supporter.

Could you explain your theory to me it sounds interesting. Why will Aegon prove to be fake for another reason?

The theory that Aegon is a Blackfyre (he's the son of Illyrio and his wife, who is/was a Blackfyre)

http://www.reddit.co...epton_meribald/

I think Aegon will manage to get the IT and then he and Dany will end up marrying each other uniting both Blackfyre and Targaryen :dunno: .

There is a maid that may have been pregnant at the same time as Elia that had purple eyes.

Do you think Aegon is Ashara's kid? Who's the father?

Doh! Silly me, Brandon it is.

[MtnLion]

Allow me to add a little more fuel to your fire, Mtn Lion -

The maid with purple eyes was also rumored to have been involved with a rather hot headed and impulsive northman. In Dance we see that our Aegon has a bit of a temper when he smashes the cyvass board, and later impulsively insists on leading the attack on Storm's End. Hmmmm...

Yeah maybe crackpot, but it is fun to entertain the possibilities from time to time... ;)

Ah, but we know that he would not have extremely fair hair if she had been involved with who you think. And there is substantial reason not to fall for the literary trick that was used in Barristan's chapter. Barristan does point out that Aerys deciding to come to Harrenhal's Tourney was what precipitated the bad situation. That one clue could lead one to who dishonored that maid at Harrenhal.

[MtnLion]

If Aegon is fake, how could both Illyrio and Varys not know it?

If Aegon was replaced at a time outside of their cognizance.

ETA: There is good reason to expect fAegon to be fake, hence the theories about how he is fake. We just don't have any indication that Varys or Illyrio believe him to be fake. That doesn't mean that one or both do not know, but I theorized a way where they would both believe him the real deal, and he not be. Ashara will know. If Lemore is Ashara, then either I am right, or she chose not to expose the fake for some other reason.

[Twinslayer]

My question is why wasn't Rickard as angry as Brandon? We hear nothing about his reaction which kind of implies that it wasn't very noteworthy.

My crackpot about that is that Rickard knew about Lyanna and Rheagar, and let it happen so his daughter would become queen after Rheagar set Elia aside. Southern ambitions and all that.

I'm with you on the first part, and MtnLion may have a point about Littlefinger getting Brandon all stirred up.

I think your crackpot is crackpot, though. From Rickon's point of view, he'd much prefer for Lyanna to marry Robert because her descendants would rule the stormlands. Any child by Rhaegar would come after Aegon in the Targ succession, so unless Aegon died childless, Lyanna's descendants would not even be lords.

[A Crow Come Over]

Started getting sidetracked in the "Wow, Never Noticed" thread so wanted to bring this up here;

Seems majority of readers have taken R+L=J as canon and cold hard fact, which i think is a mistake. I agree there is strong evidence but I still feel like he could be N+A=J.

Will everyone be upset if he does not end up being Rhaegar's son?

[Real Heir of Bear Island]

About the will. So, Stannis offered Jon the same thing that Robb did without knowing that Robb had already done it?

Jon refused Stannis' but would have he accepted Robb's?

I believe he would have. One of his main reasons for denying Stannis was his inability to betray his Gods. Stannis did want him to burn all the wierwoods. When he reunited with Ghost, he noticed his red eyes. Eyes that were red like a heart tree not like Melisandre's fire god. That's why he denied Stannis.

I'm sure it also helped his decision that he was nominate LC. But I believe the true reasons were his God's. Robbs will would have given him charge streight from the Lord of Winterfell. It was his Brother's dying wish. I say of course he takes it.

I still think he will take it, but relinquish to Rickon once he is discovered alive.

[FittleLinger]

Started getting sidetracked in the "Wow, Never Noticed" thread so wanted to bring this up here;

Seems majority of readers have taken R+L=J as canon and cold hard fact, which i think is a mistake. I agree there is strong evidence but I still feel like he could be N+A=J.

Will everyone be upset if he does not end up being Rhaegar's son?

Upset? No. I will be surprised though,and will be asking myself, "What was the point of giving all those clues?".

Martin has said himself that he gives subtle clues, but not false clues. He has pointed out several times he's not a liar. So with the huge amount of evidence, it will be really hypocritical if that's the case.

[Bear Island Bruiser]

Started getting sidetracked in the "Wow, Never Noticed" thread so wanted to bring this up here;

Seems majority of readers have taken R+L=J as canon and cold hard fact, which i think is a mistake. I agree there is strong evidence but I still feel like he could be N+A=J.

Will everyone be upset if he does not end up being Rhaegar's son?

Completely agree. There are other plausible theories out there. My personal favourite is that Jon is actually Ashara and Ned's son. Having met at some point after she left KL during the rebellion. The real Aegon is smuggled out of KL and taken to the ToJ. Ned then promises Lyanna to take care of Aegon, who he finds at the tower. He then goes to Starfall and agrees with Ashara that he'll take care of Jon (his actual son) and Ashara will take Aegon to Essos, faking her own suicide on the way.

Now I accept this is far from the most likely one but it would still be my preferred outcome.

[Zupoleon]

Ah, but we know that he would not have extremely fair hair if she had been involved with who you think. And there is substantial reason not to fall for the literary trick that was used in Barristan's chapter. Barristan does point out that Aerys deciding to come to Harrenhal's Tourney was what precipitated the bad situation. That one clue could lead one to who dishonored that maid at Harrenhal.

I agree, even though we know that genes in Martin's world work differently than in our world. Interesting that the traits I attributed to Aegon are also not foreign to Aerys...

[Twinslayer]

About the will. So, Stannis offered Jon the same thing that Robb did without knowing that Robb had already done it?

Jon refused Stannis' but would have he accepted Robb's?

Uhn, I don't think so. Robb fell into a trap, Rhaegar and Lyanna were true love, that's how I see it.

The difference between the offer from Stannis and the offer from Robb is that Stannis would make Jon convert to the Red God and burn Winterfell's heart tree but Robb would not.

I do think there is a direct relationship between R+L and Robb's marriage to Jeyne, but not the one you may think. Robb married Jeyne because he thought that failing to do so after sleeping with her would be dishonorable. Where in the world did he get that idea? In the Stark family, everybody's doing it -- Brandon with Barbry Riswell; Benjen advises Jon Snow to go father some bastards; Lyanna runs off with a married man. Historically, we know that Torrhen Stark had a bastard brother, and then there is Bael the Bard.

Outside the Stark family everybody's doing it, too -- Robert/Delena Florent; Littlefinger/Lysa; Cersei/Jaime; Hoster/Tansy (?); Tytos Lannister and his mistress; Stannis and Melisandre (probably); Joffrey plans to have bastards by Sansa; pretty much everyone in Dorne; and not to mention Aegon IV, Aemon the Dragonknight, and BloodRaven/Sheira.

And, as Catelyn tells us, there is nothing unusual about lords having bastards (there are lots of examples running around -- Bastard of Driftmark, multiple Frey bastards, Snows, Rivers, Stones, Waters, Sands, Hills, etc.). Finally, Littlefinger owns brothels, and loads of nobles see prostitutes -- Tyrion, Tywin, Jorah, Viserys, Robert, etc.

In fact, the only person who seems to frown on this kind of activity is Ned, and I think he is just faking it so he can avoid answering questions about Jon Snow. But he does such a good job faking that Robb grows up believing it. So when Robb has a fling with Jeyne Westerling, he thinks he has to marry her.

So that's my theory -- R+L=J (and Ned's promise to Lyanna) killed Robb Stark.

[Lady Green]

@MayNeverDie

I won't be upset, part of me wants Jon to be Ned's son because whoever's son he is it doesn't change him.

In my opinion Bear Island Bruiser's theory is the most likely if Jon is Ashara and Ned's son.

[Queen of Procrastination]

The theory that Aegon is a Blackfyre (he's the son of Illyrio and his wife, who is/was a Blackfyre)

http://www.reddit.co...epton_meribald/

Of course I know the "Aegon is a Blackfyre theory", but so far I´ve seen slightly other theories which suggested that one or most likely both of Varys and Illyrio know that Aegon is a Blackfyre. Mtn Lion´s theroy is that neither Illyrio nor Varys know that, I never heard that one before, but I know the "Aegon is a Blackfyre" theory I just knew a slightly different version of this theory than the one Mtn Lion has.

I think Aegon will manage to get the IT and then he and Dany will end up marrying each other uniting both Blackfyre and Targaryen :dunno: .

Yes, I believe that, too.

[MtnLion]

Completely agree. There are other plausible theories out there. My personal favourite is that Jon is actually Ashara and Ned's son. Having met at some point after she left KL during the rebellion. The real Aegon is smuggled out of KL and taken to the ToJ. Ned then promises Lyanna to take care of Aegon, who he finds at the tower. He then goes to Starfall and agrees with Ashara that he'll take care of Jon (his actual son) and Ashara will take Aegon to Essos, faking her own suicide on the way.

Now I accept this is far from the most likely one but it would still be my preferred outcome.

Well, we have a matter of Lyanna's bed of blood and dying of a fever. This points to her having a child, recently, when Ned arrives. So, what of Lyanna's child?

Who smuggled Aegon of of King's Landing, and pray, for what purpose? King's Landing is safe, secure, and well guarded until Aerys believes Pycelle about Tywin's intentions.

[Ygrain]

Well, we have a matter of Lyanna's bed of blood and dying of a fever. This points to her having a child, recently, when Ned arrives. So, what of Lyanna's child?

Who smuggled Aegon of of King's Landing, and pray, for what purpose? King's Landing is safe, secure, and well guarded until Aerys believes Pycelle about Tywin's intentions.

Plus, Apple Martini's test question: what's so supersecret about Ashara being Jon's mother that Ned never tells? It might be understandable if he never tells Cat and confirm the gossip that is circulating, anyway, but he has absolutely no reason not to tell Jon once he is old enough to know how to shut up.

[Lady Gwynhyfvar]

Upset? No. I will be surprised though,and will be asking myself, "What was the point of giving all those clues?".

Martin has said himself that he gives subtle clues, but not false clues. He has pointed out several times he's not a liar. So with the huge amount of evidence, it will be really hypocritical if that's the case.

I'm thinking one of the most compelling clues that Ashara is not the mother is Ned's reaction when Catelyn asks him about her. He is so unflinchingly honest it's hard to believe he wouldn't give Cat some answer to a direct question. On the other hand, his reaction, as described from Catelyn's POV, fits with what you would expect from Ned if

a. it isn't true (fire the maid for spreading lies and gossip)

and

b. he is keeping the secret of Jon's parentage because of a (to him) sacred oath to his sister

[Erudain]

Besides...why would Lyanna make Ned promise to take care of Aegon if he is nothing to her? at best is her would-be-step-son?

[Ygrain]

I'm thinking one of the most compelling clues that Ashara is not the mother is Ned's reaction when Catelyn asks him about her. He is so unflinchingly honest it's hard to believe he wouldn't give Cat some answer to a direct question. On the other hand, his reaction, as described from Catelyn's POV, fits with what you would expect from Ned if

a. it isn't true (fire the maid for spreading lies and gossip)

and

b. he is keeping the secret of Jon's parentage because of a (to him) sacred oath to his sister

Touché. His is a response of a honourable man who doesn't want to lie but cannot tell the truth. Besides, if he did ever step down from his codes and dishonour Ashara, I'd fully expect him to own his mistake instead of masquerading it with silence.

[Techelles]

I believe we are suggesting that perhaps Littlefinger told a buch of wild lies to Brandon. One of the possibilities is that Lyanna died during a kidnap attempt, for example, yes.

One reason to think this, which we have (I thought) made clear but you apparently don't agree with, is the extremely pointless and useless reaction he had suggests something different than just "get my sister back and avenge her honour". Specifically because he not only doesn't make any effort to get her back, but never even mentions any slight. Obviously (to him and us) there is one, but why does he ignore that totally? It seems revenge is more important than redeeming honour (anyones), or her safety. That suggests one of two (possibly more) things - either her safety and honour are of much less importance to him than his desire for revenge, or he believes that she is at this point beyond recovery, let alone redemption.

Yeah, I guess we're just disagreeing. 'Cause to me, demanding a duel with a prince is Brandon's way of addressing the slight. So he hardly ignores it, in my view. And the fact that he is there making his demands shows that he considers his sister and her honor to be more important than anything, his own life included.

I don't understand your last sentence here? Who thought Lyanna was dead, and who found out she wasn't? We are talking about Brandon here, who died before any real word of her came. Who else ever even thought she was dead? Who ever did find out any more other than Ned at ToJ?

You and MtnLion have said that Brandon may have thought that Lyanna was dead. That's what I was referring to.

And the fact that no one else ever thought she was dead was my point. Ned never thought that, which is why he went looking for her. No one ever mentions that Brandon thought that. And there's no reason to think that he did...IMO.

Except he didn't demand to settle a point of honour. He demanded Rhaegar's death. He never mentioned honour, never mentioned a slight, never mentioned redress.

That's what a challenge is, though: a settling of a point of honor, an opportunity for redress. I can't imagine why you are separating these things when they are so clearly tied together.

You appear to miss the point that I'm Not. Making. Affirmations.

At last we agree. Also, that word was used ironically.

Honestly, though, it seems like you're splitting a hair here: if you're not trying to affirm your case, why are you even arguing with me?

Obviously we've both (all three of us?) been misreading the other side. I've certainly never been arguing that there was official approval for her to be riding out with Rhaegar. Just that there wasn't any realistic way of stopping her doing so should she have chosen. Which you appeared (to me at least) to be saying she should have been unable to, socially.

No, you weren't arguing that, I agree, which is why I mentioned that this point was originally addressed to MtnLion, not you. But then you picked it up.

But yes, I stand by the point that it was socially unacceptable for Lyanna to elope with Rhaegar. I can't imagine why this even needs to be argued.

We don't know, and thats the point (one of them). They certainly are not to retrieve Lyanna, since he goes about things in a way guaranteed to not work, to inflame the situation, and Lyanna's name never even comes up.

I disagree; I think Brandon's intentions are quite obvious. I don't see a good reason to think he wasn't interested in avenging and recovering Lyanna. Lyanna's name is all over the entire situation without Brandon shouting it all around KL. He acted the way he did because he was an especially hot-headed young man whose blood was up on account of an insult to his House, his sister, and his own honor. And all his thoughts and energy are bent upon the one man who is responsible: Rhaegar.

Well, we'll have to agree to disagree. MtnLion (I believe) and I both think that it is very much an insufficient reason. Brandons behaviour simply doesn't make sense, even angry sense, for a simple abduction/elopement story and we literally have no idea what information he is acting on or how he got it. It could literally be almost anything from almost anyone.

Agreed: we shall agree to disagree. Whatever the message could be, it's not required to be anything other than what we think it is to explain the situation. That's my view.

There is also the strong point that surely Lyanna, who had a strong sense of honour, and Rhaegar, who had a strong sense of duty, would have at least passed a message to her family rather than disappear completely unknown.

But there appears to have been no message (although Rickard certainly acts calmly and never complains, so perhaps he did get a message?)

I wouldn't expect a message from Rhaegar or Lyanna. It was a secret, after all. Surely it's not unusual for eloping lovers not to leave messages.

There's also the possibility that Lyanna didn't actually know that Rhaegar was going to take her. Side note: If this is true, I believe that he could have convinced her of his good intentions and the prophecy and the PtwP afterwards. Then again, when I approach women with the Promised Prince line, it never goes well. Need some purple contacts.

So this little theory, which has no evidence, does at least provide answers for two (three!) unexplained and mysterious phenomena.

Brandon's extreme and unexplained reaction, contrasting with Rickard's measured reaction.

The lack of messages to family from Lyanna.

As you wish. But again, these don't seem like mysteries to me.

Littlefingers later MO - which is not something you devise by thinking, since its risky and erratic, but something you can fall into by luck.

Littlefinger's methods don't involve thinking. Got it.

Seriously, though, I think you're giving him too much credit. He was just a boy. The man he became is a creature that would have required evolution. Cunning lad turned evil mastermind via traumatic childhood experience.

As it happens, young Littlefinger is in the general vicinity, is known to the chief actors in this little drama, is a suitable conduit and later exhibits an MO of passing false information and profiting from the chaos.

Here, he has a bone to pick with Brandon, and out of the unknown-how-it-comes-about-chaos, the result is Brandon's horrible death.

First, I'm not convinced of this timeline.

Second, we don't know where Brandon was coming from, so it could have been from somewhere within a few days ride of RR even.

So what's your take on the timeline? Where does mine go wrong? Because if it's right, then it puts Littlefinger well out of the vicinity.

I admit that we don't know where Brandon is coming from, but it seems to me like it must have been a fair distance if the point has to be made that Brandon is "on his way to Riverrun to marry Catelyn."

[Lux in Tenebris]

Its highly unlikely that the wouldn't know but not impossible, if they were told it was Aegon and how 'he' escaped then they might not.

I was under the impression it was Varys who "allegedly" switched the babies at birth at Rhaegar's request and then smuggled him out of KL?