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R+L = J v 38


Stubby

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Crack the pot: I think that when GRRM started writing the books, R+L=J, but now that everyone realized it so quickly, he was forced to re-write the entire series and elongate it to somehow make R+L NOT J. Hence all the delays in putting out the books.

If an author doesn't want readers to figure out mysteries then he shouldn't incorporate mysteries into his text.

ETA: Check out the Moments of Foreshadowing threads. Shit like that takes time.

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I think it's crucial that we have yet to see either of these prophecies in their entirety. We're fed them in bits and pieces, and some of the pieces match and some don't. We have yet to see a fully realized version, and I think that's because if we did, it'd give something away. Just like I'm of the mind that Azor Ahai means something, in an etymological sense, that would "solve" the mystery if that meaning were revealed.

Since I have insisted on the first point in several posts I agree on that score. It would be amusing if "Azor Ahai" means "Last Hero" in the language of Asshai. I doubt it, but you never know :)

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You're misremembering. At the start of Mel's POV she is spending a frustrating night trying to find amongst other things where Stannis is, and at one stage she does indeed cry out to be shown Azor Ahai. Afterwards she complains that instead all she sees is Snow, as in Jon Snow. However the point is that she's not asking R'hllor to reveal who Azor Ahai is. She already knows he's Stannis - even if she had to make him himself; all she wants to see right now is where Stannis has got to, not who Azor Ahai is.

Yes but some would argue that the fact that she indeeds cries out to be shown AA(which she thinks is Stannis) and is instead shown Snow is a way of R'hllor/the fire trying to tell her that Stannis is not AA and AA is actually Jon snow. Just because she thinks Stannis is AA doesn't make it true and the fact that she doesn't put the connection together(because of her blinding desire to find Stannis) doesn't mean that we should simply dismiss the very real possibility that this could very well have been a direct message from R'hllor trying to inform Mel that she is wrong in saying "show me AA" in order to find Stannis, because that is not who Stannis is and in fact the real AA is Jon Snow.

Therefore when she cries out to be shown AA instead of saying Stannis's actual name, even though what she really meant was to be shown Stannis(who she thinks is AA) because she needs to find him. It still doesn't change the fact that her words were to be shown AA in which R'hllor/the fire says "okay you wanna see AA i'll show him to you", and shows her Snow instead of who she expects to see(Stannis)because Jon is the real AA.

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Crack the pot: I think that when GRRM started writing the books, R+L=J, but now that everyone realized it so quickly, he was forced to re-write the entire series and elongate it to somehow make R+L NOT J. Hence all the delays in putting out the books.

GRRM has specifically said that he doesn't pay attention to what fans have figured out (as much as he can stay away from it) and does not change the plot based on those things.

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Essentially, I was making a point of your way of speaking - like we are retarded children, but it's not our fault - we were simply born this way, and cannot fully comprehend our own stupidity. And that's about an idea that is very far from proven.

One that I disagree with as well. I'm not going to point out all the text proof that Jon is AA, nor will point out that there is no real evidence for Dany other thatn Aemon's fevre dream ramblings (who is human, and you know, can be wrong too). And also, I find it very reasonable for people to doubt in "the first obvious choice" simply because they have good reason to with Martin.

On the first point it was more likely the tone of instructor to student. You can take the boy out of the academy, but not the academy out of the boy :) I come by this honestly having taught at several universities years ago.

Furthermore, if you are complaining about an apodeitic tone to my post, I would note that the post by Apple Martini to which I responded had a similar tone to it. You let that go, but then you disagree with my position and agree with hers....

Now as for the alleged "fever dream ramblings" by Maester Aemon, what he said to Samwell about Daenerys and Rhaegar in that passage in Feast was lucid and to the point. He did not ramble at all.

Further there is no text proof that Jon is AAR nor that the Nights Watch is lightbringer. The phrase about the "light that brings the dawn" in the NW oath is a part of the original as Samwell says it in response to the challenge at the black gate below the Night Fort. It is many hundreds if not thousands of years old. Has the Night's Watch been Lightbringer all those years? And from what fire was it drawn at its founding? The claim that the words of the oath fit the prophecy as stated by Melisandre at the ceremony on Dragonstone does not even stand up as well as the claim that Dany's dragons are Lightbringer: they at least really were drawn from a fire.

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Yes but some would argue that the fact that she indeeds cries out to be shown AA(which she thinks is Stannis) and is instead shown Snow is a way of R'hllor/the fire trying to tell her that Stannis is not AA and AA is actually Jon snow. Just because she thinks Stannis is AA doesn't make it true and the fact that she doesn't put the connection together(because of her blinding desire to find Stannis) doesn't mean that we should simply dismiss the very real possibility that this could very well have been a direct message from R'hllor trying to inform Mel that she is wrong in saying "show me AA" in order to find Stannis, because that is not who Stannis is and in fact the real AA is Jon Snow.

Therefore when she cries out to be shown AA instead of saying Stannis's actual name, even though what she really meant was to be shown Stannis(who she thinks is AA) because she needs to find him. It still doesn't change the fact that her words were to be shown AA in which R'hllor/the fire says "okay you wanna see AA i'll show him to you", and shows her Snow instead of who she expects to see(Stannis)because Jon is the real AA.

Do you think that she would believe for one moment that Jon or Stannis was AAR if she knew about Dany's dragons? And what about Benerro, Moqorro, et al who have said that Dany is the one? Moqorro is at least as good at reading the flames as Melisandre. To be sure, it may be that they have not consulted the fires as Melidandre has, and are just assuming that "the dragons prove it" as Maester Aemon said. On the other hand they may well have and have seen Dany or at any rate a woman of Valyrian appearance.

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"Last Hero" would be one possibility with interesting implications. "Lord Commander" (or "Commanding Ruler" or anything to that effect) would be another interesting translation that I could see coming.

"Commanding Ruler" would fit Dany better than Jon at present. In any case Azor Ahai has the training of a blacksmith, on the face of it at least. None of Dany, Jon, or Stannis do (if we read the point about the forging of Lightbringer literally).

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Do you think that she would believe for one moment that Jon or Stannis was AAR if she knew about Dany's dragons? And what about Benerro, Moqorro, et al who have said that Dany is the one? Moqorro is at least as good at reading the flames as Melisandre. To be sure, it may be that they have not consulted the fires as Melidandre has, and are just assuming that "the dragons prove it" as Maester Aemon said. On the other hand they may well have and have seen Dany or at any rate a woman of Valyrian appearance.

Yeah and I guess Jon dreaming about himself fighting the Others with a red burning sword in his hand, or the fact that smoke was rising from his wounds means absolutely nothing right?

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Do you think that she would believe for one moment that Jon or Stannis was AAR if she knew about Dany's dragons? And what about Benerro, Moqorro, et al who have said that Dany is the one? Moqorro is at least as good at reading the flames as Melisandre. To be sure, it may be that they have not consulted the fires as Melidandre has, and are just assuming that "the dragons prove it" as Maester Aemon said. On the other hand they may well have and have seen Dany or at any rate a woman of Valyrian appearance.

Do you think that Aemon would be dead-set on Dany if he knew other Targaryens were alive? Everybody here is working with missing information.

I also do not think that the dragons in the prophecy refer to literal dragons. So in that sense, Dany's dragons don't mean squat to me because I read the prophecy figuratively, not literally. And GRRM precedent is actually on my side here: When people have "dragon dreams" in the D&E series, the dragons in the visions correspond to human Targaryens, not actual dragons. I sincerely think that precedent is included in the novellas as a clue in how to interpret "dragon dreams" in the main series.

My original argument for Azor Ahai/The Last Hero/TPTWP is still the one I'm using: It's not anyone who has been explicitly nominated in the story itself. This is not, I believe, something GRRM is going to "solve" for us in such a blunt, heavy-handed, obvious way as, "Well Aemon said so, so it must be correct."

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@Old-Growth- I will give you some textual examples, OK. Jon's dream where he fights the Others. His heritage - he is also of Aerys and Rhaella's line, but this is still "mystery". Jon has killed a wight with fire. And as Apple Martini has said, there are numerous options for the salt and smoke with Jon's current situation at the Wall - tears of Bowen and smoking wound, the ice vaults, etc.

I will add my two cents here and propose that the "bleeding star" might be Dawn - after the battle it's safe to assume it was covered in blood, and it is forged by a fallen star.

You can say that yes, now they got the crucial piece of info realized - the gender thing. Yes, but initially Rhaegar thought the PTWP was himself, and then for some reason he decided that's not the case. Meaning that he most probably "realized" something that made him ineligible. What I am trying to say is that it seems they have continoulsy changed their verdict and made such "revelations" as the gender thing, so I don't know why we should assume that Aemon's on the ship was the final and most important piece, or even if it's correct.

About the obvious thing, what I meant is not that it must not be the first choice everytime, but when you ask people, "Why the hell are you ignoring the first and obvious and looking for an alternative", the answer is, "Because Martin has given us enough reason to doubt the first and obvious answer in literally everything". It's about track record again.

Compared to the salt of sea and the smoke from the vents of Dragonmont on Dragonstone, a few tears and a little condensate from wounds or whatever fire might have been at the ToJ are as nothing. Tears and smoke from a fire could be anywhere, anytime. How is that supposed to fulfil a prophecy that is many hundreds, perhaps thousands of years old concerning a matter of the gravest importance? And if there must be a Valyrian connection directly to the birth, Dragonstone is a better fit by far.

As for why Rhaegar thought it was Aegon, there was a comet visible in the night sky at the time Aegon was conceived as Aemon explains to Samwell. That would probably have been a white comet.

Now while the red comet was in the sky, Jon does nothing remarkable let alone magical (you can search his chapters in ACoK in vain for such). Dany however survives a walk into a fiery pyre and emerges unburnt (except for her hair) with three dragon hatchlings; an event both remarkable and magical. Dany also acquired bloodriders as a result, something no Khaleesi had ever had before---an additional remarkable occurrence. This fits the bleeding star/dragons from stone part of the prophecy.

Based on what we know so far, Dany matches up much better than Jon. Martin may add more from the prophecy later, in a way that changes the fit from Dany to Jon but so far he has not done so, nor given us any hint that he will do so.

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Dany's dragons are Lightbringer: they at least really were drawn from a fire.

Lightbringer has been forged as the weapon against the Others. Dragons were drawn from fire not for this purpose. At least the NW has been created as "sword" against the Others. Martin described only one person who is so much devoted to fight the Others, who seeks methods to kill the Others and their motives for the conquest. Martin gives us a story how this person is developing from a boy to a warrior and leader whose goal is to defeat the Others. Is Dany somehow associated with the fight against the Others? Does she trains herself as a warrior? Raegar came to conclusion that the PTWP should be a warrior. Martin shows us the story how Dany is only trying to become a queen in Westeros, not as the devoted warrior against the Others. I don't remember who said to Stannis it might be Mel that if he wants to gain the Westerosi crown he should first to defeat the Others?
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Based on what we know so far, Dany matches up much better than Jon. Martin may add more from the prophecy later, in a way that changes the fit from Dany to Jon but so far he has not done so, nor given us any hint that he will do so.

"There will come a day after a long summer when the stars bleed and the cold breath of darkness falls heavy on the world. In this dread hour a warrior shall draw from the fire a burning sword. And that sword shall be Lightbringer, the Red Sword of Heroes, and he who clasps it shall be Azor Ahai come again, and the darkness shall flee before him."

Dany gave birth to magical animals when the cold breath of darkness did not fall heavy on the world. She even didn't know that the Others exist, and she wasn't a warrior. The dread hour will come in the next book that named as "The Winds of Winter".

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Do you think that Aemon would be dead-set on Dany if he knew other Targaryens were alive? Everybody here is working with missing information.

I also do not think that the dragons in the prophecy refer to literal dragons. So in that sense, Dany's dragons don't mean squat to me because I read the prophecy figuratively, not literally. And GRRM precedent is actually on my side here: When people have "dragon dreams" in the D&E series, the dragons in the visions correspond to human Targaryens, not actual dragons. I sincerely think that precedent is included in the novellas as a clue in how to interpret "dragon dreams" in the main series.

My original argument for Azor Ahai/The Last Hero/TPTWP is still the one I'm using: It's not anyone who has been explicitly nominated in the story itself. This is not, I believe, something GRRM is going to "solve" for us in such a blunt, heavy-handed, obvious way as, "Well Aemon said so, so it must be correct."

On the first point yes he would. Jon has hatched no dragons from stone and did nothing remarkable let alone magical whilst the bleeding star was in the sky. And something you conveniently omit: Dany is a dragon in the metaphorical sense and more so than Jon who is half Stark. Also the prophecy is very old and likely predates the custom of calling Targaryens "dragons": we do not know from whose vision(s) it comes nor whether those visions happened before or after the doom. For all we know it was the maiden daughter of Aenar Targaryen, before the Doom.

Moreover I am not claiming that "Aemon said so, so it must be so". I have been responding to various attempts, including yours, to say that Aemon's claim means that it is "too obvious" and is actually grounds for rejecting the idea that Daenerys is the one.

As for the "metaphorical" rather than literal sense, lots of Targaryens after Aegon III would fit in that sense, including, if we accept what Bloodraven says, Aegon V, who clearly was not AAR. But since the Dance of the Dragons only Dany has hatched real ones. Then again one might also suggest that Dany woke herself as a Dragon in that fiery pyre.

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On the first point yes he would. Jon has hatched no dragons from stone and did nothing remarkable let alone magical whilst the bleeding star was in the sky. And something you conveniently omit: Dany is a dragon in the metaphorical sense and more so than Jon who is half Stark. Also the prophecy is very old and likely predates the custom of calling Targaryens "dragons": we do not know from whose vision(s) it comes nor whether those visions happened before or after the doom. For all we know it was the maiden daughter of Aenar Targaryen, before the Doom.

Moreover I am not claiming that "Aemon said so, so it must be so". I have been responding to various attempts, including yours, to say that Aemon's claim means that it is "too obvious" and is actually grounds for rejecting the idea that Daenerys is the one.

As for the "metaphorical" rather than literal sense, lots of Targaryens after Aegon III would fit in that sense, including, if we accept what Bloodraven says, Aegon V, who clearly was not AAR. But since the Dance of the Dragons only Dany has hatched real ones. Then again one might also suggest that Dany woke herself as a Dragon in that fiery pyre.

We're just going to have to agree to disagree on this. It's getting tiresome arguing in circles and no one's changing anyone's mind. You're dead-set on it being Dany. I'm pretty damn convinced it's not her. Tomato, tomahto.

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On the first point yes he would. Jon has hatched no dragons from stone and did nothing remarkable let alone magical whilst the bleeding star was in the sky. And something you conveniently omit: Dany is a dragon in the metaphorical sense and more so than Jon who is half Stark. Also the prophecy is very old and likely predates the custom of calling Targaryens "dragons": we do not know from whose vision(s) it comes nor whether those visions happened before or after the doom. For all we know it was the maiden daughter of Aenar Targaryen, before the Doom.

But, what exactly did Jon do when the comet was in the sky? I can't remember, was it there e.g. when he was taking his NW vows?

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Yeah and I guess Jon dreaming about himself fighting the Others with a red burning sword in his hand, or the fact that smoke was rising from his wounds means absolutely nothing right?

The first might mean something, assuming that the sword does not come from elsewheres, such as from something Dany does. Suppose that it is Stannis' sword that he wields: that would be ironic, would it not?

As for the second point to compare a few tears and some condensate to the salt of the sea around Dragonstone and the smoke from the vents of Dragonmont would be risible were it not for the number of forum members who have bought into this idea. That last just makes it sad...

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But, what exactly did Jon do when the comet was in the sky? I can't remember, was it there e.g. when he was taking his NW vows?

No. We first encounter the bleeding star in Dany's chapters at the end of AGoT, then later in the first half of ACoK. Thru' much of its appearance Jon is off on the first part of the ranging.

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We're just going to have to agree to disagree on this. It's getting tiresome arguing in circles and no one's changing anyone's mind. You're dead-set on it being Dany. I'm pretty damn convinced it's not her. Tomato, tomahto.

Well, I don't expect to convince you since you are firmly convinced otherwise. But there are others reading this exchange who may not be so certain, and might find the arguments of value. And there is also the argument J. S. Mill makes in chapter 2 of On Liberty about the virtue of understanding the arguments pro and con an opinion of some importance to one.

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