R+L = J v 38

[Queen of Procrastination]

Amongst other possible impediments to this idea... who in the realm is going to care about or legitimize anything in Robb's will?

The remaining Stark loyalist and maybe some lords from the Riverlands who want the Riverlands to be part of the Kingdom of the North.

Just remember what Lyanna Mormont wrote Stannis: "Bear Island knwos no King, but the King in the North whose name is STARK.

Many Northmen still want a northern Kingdom and plot against the Boltons and Freys.

Look at the Northern Conspiracy thread (it´s great).

[Queen of Procrastination]

It is difficult to know what Varys really wants. One thing that does stand out for me is that Varys, while deliberately misleading, has always spoken the truth. That is quite the opposite of Littlefinger who has mislead with lies. Varys did warn Aerys that Rhaegar was establishing ties with the Lords of Westeros at Harrenhal, but he also warns that Tywin may not be coming to the rescue. So, apparently Varys is supporting the mad king, and thus all Targaryens. Varys seems to support exactly what he says he supports, and conveying that to Jon, I see him supporting Jon (behind Aegon since he seems to think Aegon is the real heir).

you believe that Varys thinks Aegon is real and only Illiro knows that he´s fake?

Interesting so far I´ve only heart the theory that Varys knows that Aegon is fake, too and that he´s also a Blackfyre supporter.

[MtnLion]

Some of this I addressed above, but I have to ask: why would Brandon have gone after Rhaegar if he didn't think Lyanna was involved?

I think the demand for Lyanna's return was implicit in his challenge to Rhaegar. Rhaegar, after all, was the man who bore the blame. He was the one who had dishonored his sister (there mere fact of the elopement is dishonor enough).

I expressed myself poorly, sorry. If the message that Brandon receives indicates the deed was done and that Lyanna is either dead or otherwise detained outside of Rhaegar's reach, it leads to the speech that Brandon gives at King's Landing. Brandon does not express any concerns for his sister (dead or otherwise out of reach to Rhaegar) but merely invites Prince Rhaegar to his death.

We need to define dishonor. In literary terms, dishonor is forcible rape or seduction outside of wedlock. I do not see Rhaegar and Lyanna meeting and having a non-sexual relationship as being a dishonor to her or to House Stark. Nor would it lead to Brandon doing as he did. If Rhaegar and Lyanna are just meeting or travelling together, I see Brandon perhaps sending word to his father rather than act in a completely foolhardy manner. Everyone knows that you don't confront the Mad King lightly, if at all.

More on Lyanna, she is a willful young woman of a very noble house. She loves riding, and is obviously skilled at arms. Even Arya takes after her, and only the master of horse was able to catch her when she took flight on horseback. The Starks rule the north, and no one feels unsafe on the roads in the north (a maiden can travel naked without fear). No one is going to oppose Lyanna at what she wants to do, especially in the north.

It would be ineteresting to know what was in the message from Littlefinger to Catelyn after Brandon is "executed".

[MtnLion]

you believe that Varys thinks Aegon is real and only Illiro knows that he´s fake?

Interesting so far I´ve only heart the theory that Varys knows that Aegon is fake, too and that he´s also a Blackfyre supporter.

Oh, do we know that Illyrio thinks Aegon is fake? I think that Aegon will prove to be fake for another reason, but I don't think that either Varys or Illyrio know that.

[ExileOnDaytonStreet]

Oh, do we know that Illyrio thinks Aegon is fake? I think that Aegon will prove to be fake for another reason, but I don't think that either Varys or Illyrio know that.

Aegon will prove to be dead at some point.

Once Dany comes by with her dragons, all bets are off.

[Queen of Procrastination]

Oh, do we know that Illyrio thinks Aegon is fake? I think that Aegon will prove to be fake for another reason, but I don't think that either Varys or Illyrio know that.

Could you explain your theory to me it sounds interesting. Why will Aegon prove to be fake for another reason?

[salemkittykat]

Hi, I've just starting reading some of these threads so apologies if this has been mentioned (and for jumping into the middle of of the current discussion!)

Just something small I noticed - I was re-reading Game of Thrones and in Eddard 6 (I think. It's when he is questioning Pycelle about Jon Arryn's death) that fishwives are mentioned. '"Dark Wings, dark words", Ned muttered... "So the fishwives say", Grand Maester Pycelle agreed.'

No other references off the top of my head but I don't think this is the only time in Eddard's chapters where they are mentioned in a throwaway comment. This got me thinking about the fisherman's daughter story from Godric Borrell - it seems to be a recurring theme with Ned. So, I'm not sure whether this is some foreshadowing I hadn't noticed before, hints that there's truth to Borrell's story or (my favourite theory) a double bluff by GRRM to drop hints about Jon's parentage, leading us to believe that there is some truth in the rumours but actually a play on Catelyn's family sigil - Ned is being linked with fishwives as Catelyn is a Tully. :)

[Lady Green]

@salemkittykat

Ned was snook back north during Robert's rebellion by a fisherman and his daughter (in a Davos chapter in aDwD), apparently the daughter was left with a bag of coins and a bastard in the belly, though whether that's true is debateable. I agree that it could just be a red herring, but Ned did spend sometime with fisher folk so he might know.

[Techelles]

We need to define dishonor. In literary terms, dishonor is forcible rape or seduction outside of wedlock. I do not see Rhaegar and Lyanna meeting and having a non-sexual relationship as being a dishonor to her or to House Stark. Nor would it lead to Brandon doing as he did. If Rhaegar and Lyanna are just meeting or travelling together, I see Brandon perhaps sending word to his father rather than act in a completely foolhardy manner. Everyone knows that you don't confront the Mad King lightly, if at all.

Sorry, I have to take serious issue with your definition of dishonor. Not sure where it comes from.

The facts are these: Lyanna was betrothed, Rhaegar was married; Lyanna had no permission to go off with Rhaegar, and Rhaegar had no permission to take her (whether she was willing or not). The situation is at worst a kidnapping, at best an elopement. The first implies forcible rape; the second implies seduction outside of wedlock. These are your phrases. Am I wrong?

Whether it was sexual or not (Are we arguing that? Isn't this an R+L=J thread?), an elopement suggests a sexual relationship, so in the eyes of the realm, that's what was going on. This itself is a stain on Lyanna's honor, because she would thereafter be viewed as damaged goods, i.e., unable to make a good match. That's the whole reason Robb Stark felt honor-bound to marry Jeyne Westerling.

That a Stark girl who was betrothed to another was snatched away by a married man is a stain on the honor of House Stark. It makes Lord Stark look utterly weak, and it would also mean that House Stark would be forced to break its word to House Baratheon. I don't see how you can argue otherwise.

More on Lyanna, she is a willful young woman of a very noble house. She loves riding, and is obviously skilled at arms. Even Arya takes after her, and only the master of horse was able to catch her when she took flight on horseback. The Starks rule the north, and no one feels unsafe on the roads in the north (a maiden can travel naked without fear). No one is going to oppose Lyanna at what she wants to do, especially in the north.

They wouldn't stop her from riding around, sure. But they would certainly stop her from running away with the married prince. She's betrothed to Robert. Are you suggesting that Rickard would have no problem with his daughter running off with a married man? Any northman would take this as a slight. An insult to the Starks is an insult to the north.

It would be ineteresting to know what was in the message from Littlefinger to Catelyn after Brandon is "executed".

It would, I agree. I wouldn't expect a confession, though.

[MtnLion]

@Techelles Are you basing your idea of betrothal and so on on real world ideals? It seems to me that behavior in Westeros is slightly different than in our real world. Now, it appears that Lyanna has the freedom to go where she wants, and when she wants, by her lonesome. This might be especially true in the north where her father enforces the laws. It has been said that a maiden could travel the King's Road unmolested while a Stark ruled, even naked. So, is it against the Starks laws for Rhaegar and Lyanna to share a meal, drink some wine, or ride some horses by themselves? I think not, remember that Lyanna was free enough to get some armor and ride in the tilts as the Knight of the Laughing Tree. Even dancing with Rhaegar is not barred, as Ashara was seen to dance with 6 people, and Catelyn danced several dances with Littlefinger without getting people upset. Why convict the innocent before they commit a crime? Brandon was told soemthing about his sister that involved Rhaegar, prompting Brandon to ride to King's Landing to, what demand his sister back? Nope. Why is that? Take a few minutes, it is not rocket science, he demands that Rhaegar come to his doom. Brandon not once says anything about setting Lyanna free, or anything about Lyanna. Isn't that strange to you?

[MtnLion]

Yes, LF's potential involvement is entirely speculatory and people who bring it forward should probably be clear about that (its my favourite theory, but I do try to be clear that it is 100% speculative).. There is no actual evidence for it. It just fits so 'neatly' within everything else.

And it provides a template for the later LF MO. Insert random misinformation and benefit from the chaos that follows. He had to learn that somewhere

I thouhgt that I presented it as speculation, there are no facts to support it except for Brandon's insane reaction.

[MtnLion]

Could you explain your theory to me it sounds interesting. Why will Aegon prove to be fake for another reason?

One explanation for why Aegon would be fake and Varys and Illyrio not know is that the child was switched at birth. If you are familiar with the stories, this little bit of trivia will lead you to the same speculation that I have. ;)

But, to add a little fuel to the fire; Elia's other child clearly had Elia's dark features. Aegon by what little descriptions and memories we get had Targaryen light features. There is a maid that may have been pregnant at the same time as Elia that had purple eyes.

[Zupoleon]

One explanation for why Aegon would be fake and Varys and Illyrio not know is that the child was switched at birth. If you are familiar with the stories, this little bit of trivia will lead you to the same speculation that I have. ;)

But, to add a little fuel to the fire; Elia's other child clearly had Elia's dark features. Aegon by what little descriptions and memories we get had Targaryen light features. There is a maid that may have been pregnant at the same time as Elia that had purple eyes.

Allow me to add a little more fuel to your fire, Mtn Lion -

The maid with purple eyes was also rumored to have been involved with a rather hot headed and impulsive northman. In Dance we see that our Aegon has a bit of a temper when he smashes the cyvass board, and later impulsively insists on leading the attack on Storm's End. Hmmmm...

Yeah maybe crackpot, but it is fun to entertain the possibilities from time to time... ;)

[corbon]

Just trying to cover all my bases by showing how each variation of the theory could run in to problems.

Just to be clear, I'm not building a case here, just showing how weak your 'objections' are. It doesn't take very much at all for this theory to work.

What are you saying? Certainly she rode out. I expect that she met up with Rhaegar on one such ride. But permission to ride out is not permission to ride off with the prince. Wherever she was, it was under someone's supervision.

...

They wouldn't stop her from riding around, sure. But they would certainly stop her from running away with the married prince.

How? How do they stop her? She rides around by herself regularly (as evidenced by her skill with a lance, which must have been practiced in secret riding at rings, given she was officially disallowed from training with a sword by Rickard). She's a far better rider, and no doubt far better mounted (and less burdened) than any of her guards. If she wants to be free of them, she will be.

Which is not to say she wasn't taken 'at swordpoint', necessarily. Just that if she wanted to meet Rhaegar secretly or elope, I very much doubt that she could have been prevented from doing so. With ease.

Some of this I addressed above, but I have to ask: why would Brandon have gone after Rhaegar if he didn't think Lyanna was involved?

Of course he thinks that Lyanna is involved. But I have to ask, how is anyone else supposed to know?

But that doesn't mean his intention is to get her back, or that he thinks she's a victim.

I think the demand for Lyanna's return was implicit in his challenge to Rhaegar. Rhaegar, after all, was the man who bore the blame. He was the one who had dishonored his sister (there mere fact of the elopement is dishonor enough).

Implicit isn't good enough. He's got some sort of news, and riden off to demand the death of the crown prince. What news? Who else has that news? I'm sure if Rhaegar was at KL with Lyanna he would have understood the challenge, and so would most other people. But he wasn't, and she wasn't, so all anyone at KL knows is that a blockhead from the north has just ridden up and demanded the death of the crown prince. You just can't do that.

But Brandon is so incredibly stupid and arrogant he does everything in the worst and most inflammatory way. There is no mention of Lyanna, no attempt to actually achieve anything, just murder on his mind, or even the most stupid idiot would have approached it slightly differently.

It still wouldn't be much of a cause for a rebellion were it not for the fact that then he decided to call on Jon Arryn to send both Ned and Robert to KL. JA is feeling overprotective and declines...we don't know if Aerys would have done anything to harm them, maybe he only wanted Ned to swear Aerys his fealty as new lord of WF. But JA's refusal to deliver them to KL instead calling his banners is an act of open rebellion and now both JA and Aerys must act accordingly...

Actually Aerys called Jon Arryn to send him their heads. Aerys didn't need to harm them, Jon Arryn had to do that.

[Jon Icefyre]

Allow me to add a little more fuel to your fire, Mtn Lion -

The maid with purple eyes was also rumored to have been involved with a rather hot headed and impulsive northman. In Dance we see that our Aegon has a bit of a temper when he smashes the cyvass board, and later impulsively insists on leading the attack on Storm's End. Hmmmm...

Yeah maybe crackpot, but it is fun to entertain the possibilities from time to time... ;)

I don't think thats even a possibility Ashara had dark hair and so did Brandon and Ned stark for that matter Aegon has silver/blonde hair... doesn't really add up.

[Techelles]

@Techelles Are you basing your idea of betrothal and so on on real world ideals? It seems to me that behavior in Westeros is slightly different than in our real world. Now, it appears that Lyanna has the freedom to go where she wants, and when she wants, by her lonesome. This might be especially true in the north where her father enforces the laws. It has been said that a maiden could travel the King's Road unmolested while a Stark ruled, even naked. So, is it against the Starks laws for Rhaegar and Lyanna to share a meal, drink some wine, or ride some horses by themselves? I think not, remember that Lyanna was free enough to get some armor and ride in the tilts as the Knight of the Laughing Tree. Even dancing with Rhaegar is not barred, as Ashara was seen to dance with 6 people, and Catelyn danced several dances with Littlefinger without getting people upset. Why convict the innocent before they commit a crime?

I'm basing my ideas on what I know of Westerosi society: it's patriarchal, it takes vows and honor very seriously, and it places a very high value on maidenhood, which is tied to marriageability, which is tied to the political interests of noble houses.

What you're suggesting is that Lyanna, a 14-year-old girl sworn to marry a lord paramount, had free rein of seven whole kingdoms, that she could come and go anywhere just as she pleased, and keep any company without fear of stigma or reprimand. That's just plain incorrect and unrealistic. Look, I know she was free-spirited and that she had a mind of her own, but I'm talking about how she was supposed to behave. I'm talking about the strictures of society and the expectations of her family.

Rhaegar and Lyanna were not on a damn picnic, I'm afraid. They were bee-lining south. Nobody who saw them would have any reason to think that it was anything but scandalous. You don't let betrothed girls frolic across the continent with married men. It is socially unacceptable because: her maidenhood becomes suspect, her marriageability becomes compromised, and the political interests of the house become endangered. Not to mention the nit-picky little issues of honor and reputation.

No father lets his underage daughter run away with her boyfriend. I just don't know how that could be much clearer. This is why the elopement was an insult and a cause for great concern. This is why the elopement itself, forcible or not, was the crime that you insist was never committed. Like I've said many times, there is no circumstance in which Rhaegar could have ever been considered "innocent" by anyone other than his mad father and (possibly) Lyanna. He absconded with a betrothed noble lady. Even if Lyanna didn't see it as kidnapping, literally everyone else in the realm did.

This cannot be compared to dancing at a party, I'm sorry. And a minor point: Lyanna was never allowed to tilt in a tourney. Hence the disguise. As corbon points out, "she was officially disallowed from training with a sword by Rickard." Given this, I think he might frown on her jousting.

Brandon was told soemthing about his sister that involved Rhaegar, prompting Brandon to ride to King's Landing to, what demand his sister back? Nope. Why is that? Take a few minutes, it is not rocket science, he demands that Rhaegar come to his doom. Brandon not once says anything about setting Lyanna free, or anything about Lyanna. Isn't that strange to you?

You're suggesting that LF sent Brandon word that Rhaegar had killed Lyanna, which is why Brandon would have had no reason to ask about her first? I don't see any reason to think this. If it were so, why does no one ever refer to this when they bring up Lyanna's kidnapping? Which, by the way, is never called anything but a kidnapping. And if everyone thought Lyanna was dead, how did they find out that she wasn't?

Anyway, I don't think it's out of character for a hot head like Brandon to demand to settle a point of honor with Rhaegar before bringing up the issue of Lyanna. What motivated his rush to KL? Pure anger. Who was he angry with? Rhaegar. So he goes for Rhaegar. Aside: this also has little to nothing to do with the science of rockets.

Just to be clear, I'm not building a case here, just showing how weak your 'objections' are. It doesn't take very much at all for this theory to work.

It takes more than you're giving me, man. And if my objections are weak, I confess that I don't even want to think about all the ungenerous adjectives one might apply to your...affirmations. :rolleyes: :)

What worries me is this: my points that you haven't ignored, you've missed. I'm going to try to be more clear.

How? How do they stop her? She rides around by herself regularly (as evidenced by her skill with a lance, which must have been practiced in secret riding at rings, given she was officially disallowed from training with a sword by Rickard). She's a far better rider, and no doubt far better mounted (and less burdened) than any of her guards. If she wants to be free of them, she will be.

I wasn't arguing that she didn't ride around on her own, that she couldn't have escaped, or that Rhaegar could not have bested any guards she might have had. That would be silly, because as we all know, Lyanna did, in fact, run off with Rhaegar.

My meaning was that Lyanna did not have permission to run off with him. If the people she was staying with (Whents? Tullys?) had known, they would have stopped it if they could, because it would have reflected poorly on them to let a noble girl entrusted to their care to elope with a married man. (It was part of my attempt to establish why the elopement would have been regarded as an insult even without any embellishment on the part of LF or anyone else.) This was a point I originally tried to make to MtnLion. Then you picked it up, apparently thinking I meant something else. Apologies if I was unclear.

Which is not to say she wasn't taken 'at swordpoint', necessarily. Just that if she wanted to meet Rhaegar secretly or elope, I very much doubt that she could have been prevented from doing so. With ease.

Naturally. She was not prevented, nor was Rhaegar.

Of course he thinks that Lyanna is involved. But I have to ask, how is anyone else supposed to know?

But that doesn't mean his intention is to get her back, or that he thinks she's a victim.

That question was addressed to MtnLion based on a specific statement of his. He answered it.

But what are you saying? What are Brandon's intentions if not to retrieve Lyanna and avenge a slight on his house? Why wouldn't he want her back, even if she hadn't been taken against her will? And whether or not she was willing, the fact that Rhaegar ran off with her is still an insult to house Stark, meaning that Brandon had a score to settle. He just chose a very stupid way to do it.

Implicit isn't good enough. He's got some sort of news, and riden off to demand the death of the crown prince. What news? Who else has that news? I'm sure if Rhaegar was at KL with Lyanna he would have understood the challenge, and so would most other people. But he wasn't, and she wasn't, so all anyone at KL knows is that a blockhead from the north has just ridden up and demanded the death of the crown prince. You just can't do that.

But Brandon is so incredibly stupid and arrogant he does everything in the worst and most inflammatory way. There is no mention of Lyanna, no attempt to actually achieve anything, just murder on his mind,

or even the most stupid idiot would have approached it slightly differently.

Check out what I said to MtnLion about this above (in this same post).

Anyway, I'm not sure I see the point you're making here. I thought we were arguing about whether there's any reason to think that LF shopped the story Brandon heard. If you're offering Brandon's stupidity and single-mindedness as a reason, I'd say that his reaction is sufficiently explained by what we already know without dragging LF into it.

Finally, I'd like to direct both you and MtnLion to post #159. I made a few extrapolations from the timeline; haven't heard anything about it, wondering what you guys think.

ETA: Post = too damn long.

[Arya Targaryen]

I don't think thats even a possibility Ashara had dark hair and so did Brandon and Ned stark for that matter Aegon has silver/blonde hair... doesn't really add up.

Ashara might have dark hair, but the Dayne males usually had silver hair. I'm not sure about genetics here, but there is a possibility, that their male child would have silver hair. (For the record, I don't think that Aegon is their child. I just don't see why Varys and Illyrio would be involved with Ashara and Brandon's (?) son)

[Lady Green]

My question is why wasn't Rickard as angry as Brandon? We hear nothing about his reaction which kind of implies that it wasn't very noteworthy.

My crackpot about that is that Rickard knew about Lyanna and Rheagar, and let it happen so his daughter would become queen after Rheagar set Elia aside. Southern ambitions and all that.

[corbon]

You're suggesting that LF sent Brandon word that Rhaegar had killed Lyanna, which is why Brandon would have had no reason to ask about her first? I don't see any reason to think this. If it were so, why does no one ever refer to this when they bring up Lyanna's kidnapping? Which, by the way, is never called anything but a kidnapping. And if everyone thought Lyanna was dead, how did they find out that she wasn't?

I believe we are suggesting that perhaps Littlefinger told a buch of wild lies to Brandon. One of the possibilities is that Lyanna died during a kidnap attempt, for example, yes.

One reason to think this, which we have (I thought) made clear but you apparently don't agree with, is the extremely pointless and useless reaction he had suggests something different than just "get my sister back and avenge her honour". Specifically because he not only doesn't make any effort to get her back, but never even mentions any slight. Obviously (to him and us) there is one, but why does he ignore that totally? It seems revenge is more important than redeeming honour (anyones), or her safety. That suggests one of two (possibly more) things - either her safety and honour are of much less importance to him than his desire for revenge, or he believes that she is at this point beyond recovery, let alone redemption.

the only person who even calls it a kidnapping is Robert, who has the least understanding of anyone and just makes shit up in his head to justify his actions.

I don't understand your last sentence here? Who thought Lyanna was dead, and who found out she wasn't? We are talking about Brandon here, who died before any real word of her came. Who else ever even thought she was dead? Who ever did find out any more other than Ned at ToJ?

Anyway, I don't think it's out of character for a hot head like Brandon to demand to settle a point of honor with Rhaegar before bringing up the issue of Lyanna. What motivated his rush to KL? Pure anger. Who was he angry with? Rhaegar. So he goes for Rhaegar. Aside: this also has little to nothing to do with the science of rockets.

Except he didn't demand to settle a point of honour. He demanded Rhaegar's death. He never mentioned honour, never mentioned a slight, never mentioned redress.

And he didn't bring up Lyanna at all.

He had days of travel to think about this, for his rage to cool and to plan his approach. Its not spur of the moment stuff, wild wolf or not.

Nobody, but nobody, is that f@$%ing stupid. Unless Lyanna is already lost to him, or 'unimportant' anyway.

It takes more than you're giving me, man. And if my objections are weak, I confess that I don't even want to think about all the ungenerous adjectives one might apply to your...affirmations. :rolleyes: :)

You appear to miss the point that I'm Not. Making. Affirmations.

I wasn't arguing that she didn't ride around on her own, that she couldn't have escaped, or that Rhaegar could not have bested any guards she might have had. That would be silly, because as we all know, Lyanna did, in fact, run off with Rhaegar.

My meaning was that Lyanna did not have permission to run off with him. If the people she was staying with (Whents? Tullys?) had known, they would have stopped it if they could, because it would have reflected poorly on them to let a noble girl entrusted to their care to elope with a married man. (It was part of my attempt to establish why the elopement would have been regarded as an insult even without any embellishment on the part of LF or anyone else.) This was a point I originally tried to make to MtnLion. Then you picked it up, apparently thinking I meant something else. Apologies if I was unclear.

Obviously we've both (all three of us?) been misreading the other side. I've certainly never been arguing that there was official approval for her to be riding out with Rhaegar. Just that there wasn't any realistic way of stopping her doing so should she have chosen. Which you appeared (to me at least) to be saying she should have been unable to, socially.

But what are you saying? What are Brandon's intentions if not to retrieve Lyanna and avenge a slight on his house? Why wouldn't he want her back, even if she hadn't been taken against her will? And whether or not she was willing, the fact that Rhaegar ran off with her is still an insult to house Stark, meaning that Brandon had a score to settle. He just chose a very stupid way to do it.

We don't know, and thats the point (one of them). They certainly are not to retrieve Lyanna, since he goes about things in a way guaranteed to not work, to inflame the situation, and Lyanna's name never even comes up.

Anyway, I'm not sure I see the point you're making here. I thought we were arguing about whether there's any reason to think that LF shopped the story Brandon heard. If you're offering Brandon's stupidity and single-mindedness as a reason, I'd say that his reaction is sufficiently explained by what we already know without dragging LF into it.

Well, we'll have to agree to disagree. MtnLion (I believe) and I both think that it is very much an insufficient reason. Brandons behaviour simply doesn't make sense, even angry sense, for a simple abduction/elopement story and we literally have no idea what information he is acting on or how he got it. It could literally be almost anything from almost anyone.

As it happens, young Littlefinger is in the general vicinity, is known to the chief actors in this little drama, is a suitable conduit and later exhibits an MO of passing false information and profiting from the chaos.

Here, he has a bone to pick with Brandon, and out of the unknown-how-it-comes-about-chaos, the result is Brandon's horrible death.

There is also the strong point that surely Lyanna, who had a strong sense of honour, and Rhaegar, who had a strong sense of duty, would have at least passed a message to her family rather than disappear completely unknown.

But there appears to have been no message (although Rickard certainly acts calmly and never complains, so perhaps he did get a message?)

One possible answer, is that Lyanna did send a message, through Littlefinger, but he corrupted it to Brandon at least.

So this little theory, which has no evidence, does at least provide answers for two (three!) unexplained and mysterious phenomena.

Brandon's extreme and unexplained reaction, contrasting with Rickard's measured reaction.

The lack of messages to family from Lyanna.

Littlefingers later MO - which is not something you devise by thinking, since its risky and erratic, but something you can fall into by luck.

Brandon was in RR when his betrothal to Cat was announced. So LF dueled him. MtnLion told us that LF convalesced in RR for about a fortnight before he was able to be moved, and Hoster had him sent back to the Fingers as soon as he could. We also know that Brandon heard about Lyanna on his way to RR to wed Cat. So if LF saw Lyanna with Rhaegar, it would have had to have been not much longer than a month or so after the duel, because he was on his way home within about 20 days.

...

Given this, I think it's safe to say that LF was well out of the picture before Lyanna ran off with Rhaegar.

First, I'm not convinced of this timeline.

Second, we don't know where Brandon was coming from, so it could have been from somewhere within a few days ride of RR even.

[Lux in Tenebris]

Oh, do we know that Illyrio thinks Aegon is fake? I think that Aegon will prove to be fake for another reason, but I don't think that either Varys or Illyrio know that.

If Aegon is fake, how could both Illyrio and Varys not know it?