R+L=J v.39

[Pugsley]

I have a question to pose. Kind of TV Show, but relevant to this post. Does anybody think it would spoil anything to reveal the Theory of R+L=J to people who have only watched the first two seasons of the show and haven't read any of the books? Most of the proof is given in the first two books so I don't think its so terrible. Plus as much evidence as there is, it is only a theory.

BTW, I do keep hammering them to read the damn books!

It's my understanding that D&D plan to introduce their own hints, in their own time (as in, closer to the time of reveal). They figure viewers will just forget subtle clues introduced in the first season that won't be relevant until the 7th (or whatever).

So I guess it depends on your friend: would they rather spot the clues if/when they're dropped in the show, or would they like to know that stuff ahead of time?

[They see me R'hollin]

If Rhaegar and Lyanna really did run off together then does that not mean the two of them are bloody fools.

I get the whole being in love thing, but Rhaegar was supposed to be smart. He was married and had children and gives Lyanna the rose knowing that she too was betrothed.

Then they run off together? Not seeming to care that her "kidnapping" would kick off a huge shitfest? It just doesn't make sense. How could two smart people EVER think that it was a good idea?

I know it seems less likely that Rhaegar's a kidnapper and a rapist but IT MAKE NO SENSE

[Big Daddy Dave]

The heart wants what the heart wants!

Assuming Rhaegar and Lyanna were in love and ran off is part of what makes it believable. People do stupid things. Even people in postitions of power and responsibility. How many US senator and governors have undone themselves for not thinking with the right head?

[Roza Ahai]

Come on Jon is clearly not a Targ. His hand got burnt and we all know Targ's are fire proof....

I can confirm that Jon is a half Targ. During Otor's attack Jon put both hands in the fire, but only his right hand is burnt, left hand is intact. So, Jons left half of the body is fire proof.

[corbon]

If Rhaegar and Lyanna really did run off together then does that not mean the two of them are bloody fools.

I get the whole being in love thing, but Rhaegar was supposed to be smart. He was married and had children and gives Lyanna the rose knowing that she too was betrothed.

Then they run off together? Not seeming to care that her "kidnapping" would kick off a huge shitfest? It just doesn't make sense. How could two smart people EVER think that it was a good idea?

I know it seems less likely that Rhaegar's a kidnapper and a rapist but IT MAKE NO SENSE

Most important thing.

We have no information.

Yes, it partially makes no sense.

OTOH, consider these little points.

1. There is no apparent reaction from Rickard (or from Aerys, who also almost certainly disapproved). Why not?

2. How did Brandon get word? What was he told? Who told him?

3. See no2. Were there messages for other people (Rickard? Aerys?) that we don't know about because we haven't had a POV who could know and was in a situation where it would come out? Were these possible messages the same as Brandon received, or did he get a corrupted or false version?

4. If they were expecting some reaction, with both families opposed, the best thing they can do to succeed is to disappear for a limited time until the heat cools off, and until its been long enough so that 'going back' is no longer an option (ie Lyanna is now 'soiled' from the POV of a Baratheon marriage). Once they have reappeared 'reparations' can be made - lands, titles, castles etc to mollify wounded pride. That prevents any dangerous reactions like rescue attempts or castle assaults etc, and forestalls being simply separated and 'handed back' as well. Unfortunately it turns out it does not forestall impossibly stupid reactions that have no possibility of a positive result, like Brandon's, nor does it take into account a sudden and unportended increase in the scale of Aerys' madness, as happend at Brandon's trial.

A couple of little things.

It was a crown (of roses, admittedly), not a rose. And it was not a romantic gesture (the original champions were scheduled to give it to their sister/niece), though it can be used as such (as Jorah did for Lynesse).

Targaryens can have more than one wife. It doesn't seem to have happened recently, but it has happened before (more than once), we have no information that any laws have changed, and Rhaegar does seem to be intent on recreating some parts of the original conquest with his three heads of the dragon (note the names of his first two kids) which appears to be tied into a mysterious prophecy and the fate of the world.

[Ygrain]

If Rhaegar and Lyanna really did run off together then does that not mean the two of them are bloody fools.

I get the whole being in love thing, but Rhaegar was supposed to be smart. He was married and had children and gives Lyanna the rose knowing that she too was betrothed.

Then they run off together? Not seeming to care that her "kidnapping" would kick off a huge shitfest? It just doesn't make sense. How could two smart people EVER think that it was a good idea?

I know it seems less likely that Rhaegar's a kidnapper and a rapist but IT MAKE NO SENSE

Every time this argument surfaces, I ask the poster what they think would have happened, had "factor Brandon" not occured. So, what do you think would have happened? You have some mightily pissed Starks, some mightily pissed Baratheons, some frowning Martells, the rest of the Westeros enjoying the juicy gossip, what would have happened?

Let me present a historical case which may have been GRRM's inspiration for the whole issue: John Lackland, king of England, married to a barren woman, kidnapped Isabela of Angouleme, very young (though not too young, by medieval standards) and a famed beauty, at that time, betrothed to another. He obtained the dispense to divorce his first wife, married Isabela and she became the mother of his heir.

What did Isabela's family do meanwhile? They petitioned their sovereign, the king of France, to intervene. He ordered John to return Isabela, John showed him a finger, they came to blows to make clear who was whose boss, John got his nose a bit bloodied, lost some lands, then returned home and went home to spend most of the morning in Isabela's bed so frequently that his subjects were raising brows over it but other than that, lived more or less happily ever after.

So, when Rhaegar disappears with Lyanna, what can he expect to happen? The Starks and Baratheons petitioning with Aerys as the highest authority to order Rhaegar return Lyanna - but as the order cannot reach him, there is no conflict of authority, no one can come to blows, virtually, no-one can do a thing. When they finally reappear, preferably with a cute little Targ in arms, Robert can hardly claim her as his betrothed before the whole Westeros, can he. Yes, some amendments will be made, Robert will get some other noble bride (Cersei, perhaps :D), Rickard Stark gets some compensations, life goes on, only tongues keep wagging for some time. Really, not an improbable outcome.

[Twinslayer]

Every time this argument surfaces, I ask the poster what they think would have happened, had "factor Brandon" not occured. So, what do you think would have happened? You have some mightily pissed Starks, some mightily pissed Baratheons, some frowning Martells, the rest of the Westeros enjoying the juicy gossip, what would have happened?

Let me present a historical case which may have been GRRM's inspiration for the whole issue: John Lackland, king of England, married to a barren woman, kidnapped Isabela of Angouleme, very young (though not too young, by medieval standards) and a famed beauty, at that time, betrothed to another. He obtained the dispense to divorce his first wife, married Isabela and she became the mother of his heir.

What did Isabela's family do meanwhile? They petitioned their sovereign, the king of France, to intervene. He ordered John to return Isabela, John showed him a finger, they came to blows to make clear who was whose boss, John got his nose a bit bloodied, lost some lands, then returned home and went home to spend most of the morning in Isabela's bed so frequently that his subjects were raising brows over it but other than that, lived more or less happily ever after.

So, when Rhaegar disappears with Lyanna, what can he expect to happen? The Starks and Baratheons petitioning with Aerys as the highest authority to order Rhaegar return Lyanna - but as the order cannot reach him, there is no conflict of authority, no one can come to blows, virtually, no-one can do a thing. When they finally reappear, preferably with a cute little Targ in arms, Robert can hardly claim her as his betrothed before the whole Westeros, can he. Yes, some amendments will be made, Robert will get some other noble bride (Cersei, perhaps :D), Rickard Stark gets some compensations, life goes on, only tongues keep wagging for some time. Really, not an improbable outcome.

Interesting, and I see the similarities.

It is worth pointing out, however, that prior to taking Isabella, John was not just King of England, he was Duke of Normandy and had other extensive holdings on the Continent. And the Duchy of Normandy was far wealthier and much more important to the Plantagenets than England -- John's predecessor, Richard the Lionheart, didn't even speak English and he spent less than one year in the country during his 10 years as king.

Anyway, the war that started after John took Isabella ended with John losing the Duchy of Normandy. Here is how one historian (David Carpenter) puts it: "In December 1203 he slunk back to England, a fugitive in his own land." This could be the inspiration for the way the Targaryens slunk back to Dragonstone when they lost the rest of Westeros.

As for them living happily ever after, again from Carpenter:

"From any role at the centre, however, one person was absent: the queen John had acquired at such cost, Isabella of Angouleme. Since she was only about twelve on her marriage, this was inevitable."

Also, it is my understanding that the app says that Aerys (via Hightower) was able to find Rhaegar when he wanted to. Is that right? If so, it seems Aerys could have summoned Rhaegar back to King's Landing to make amends for running off with Lyanna but he chose not to do so.

On a different note, I am wondering what Robert would have done if Lyanna had lived. Would he still have wanted to marry her? He seems to suggest that he would have. But would he have changed his mind if it turned out Lyanna had gone willingly?

[Real Heir of Bear Island]

It's my understanding that D&D plan to introduce their own hints, in their own time (as in, closer to the time of reveal). They figure viewers will just forget subtle clues introduced in the first season that won't be relevant until the 7th (or whatever).

So I guess it depends on your friend: would they rather spot the clues if/when they're dropped in the show, or would they like to know that stuff ahead of time?

I feel liek they have already dropped extremely subtle hints. For example, Ned tells Jon he'll tell him about his mother next time they meet. Why next time? Why not now? Well because next tiem Jopn would be a swarn brother of the NW. There are some other subtle hints when about how Ned refers to Jon as his blood, not his son. I think the big fans (of the show who don't read) will go back and rewatch and see that there were little hints here and there.

[MtnLion]

Nice number crunching, not enough of that goes on around here. That being said, Elia could have been a month or two pregnant when she went to Harrenhal, it did not have to have happened after. Also, this is assuming that Ashara got pregnant at the same time as Elia? Why that assumption? (I am not trying to be difficult, I am curious as to the rationale.)

Elia was bedridden a half a year after bearing Rhaenys. There is a comment that Elia at Harrenhal is looking much better, and it is her first trip since giving birth to Rhaenys. The difference in age between Rhaenys and Aegon, while being somewhat vague still limits when the pregnancy of Aegon starts, and the year of winter following limits when Lyanna disappeared. (We need to include that Brandon dueled with Littlefinger after the winter was over, and the betrothal was announced. Was there a couple months between announcement and actual ceremony? It stands to reason, because Littlefinger was laid up for a fortnight after the duel, and as soon as he could be moved by litter was forced out of Riverrun.) I feel confident that we will learn that Ashara and Elia became pregnant at or near the time of Harrenhal's Tourney. They then give birth near the end of the winter that followed.

[MtnLion]

If Rhaegar and Lyanna really did run off together then does that not mean the two of them are bloody fools.

I get the whole being in love thing, but Rhaegar was supposed to be smart. He was married and had children and gives Lyanna the rose knowing that she too was betrothed.

Then they run off together? Not seeming to care that her "kidnapping" would kick off a huge shitfest? It just doesn't make sense. How could two smart people EVER think that it was a good idea?

I know it seems less likely that Rhaegar's a kidnapper and a rapist but IT MAKE NO SENSE

Ah, but the hand of Littlefinger may have made the shitfest what it was. We have yet to know exactly what news Brandon received, or if it had been tainted byt he blooming annimosity of Lord Baelish. To run off to King's Landing with his escort, and to demand Prince Rhaegar show himself, without any reference to Lyanna, is to put it mildly strange. Who would confront the Mad King in the Red Keep in this manner?

[MtnLion]

Also, it is my understanding that the app says that Aerys (via Hightower) was able to find Rhaegar when he wanted to. Is that right? If so, it seems Aerys could have summoned Rhaegar back to King's Landing to make amends for running off with Lyanna but he chose not to do so.

Here we go, the app says. The books says that when Aerys wanted Rhaegar that even Varys did not know where he was. Since Rhaegar did return, we need to assume that at some point he received (could be via Hightower) news of the rebellion, and understood the gravity of the situation. Even Aerys did not take the rebellion seriously before the Battle of the Bells. That is the timeframe that Rhaegar returns to the Red Keep in, shortly before the Trident.

[Erudain]

If Rhaegar and Lyanna really did run off together then does that not mean the two of them are bloody fools.

I get the whole being in love thing, but Rhaegar was supposed to be smart. He was married and had children and gives Lyanna the rose knowing that she too was betrothed.

Then they run off together? Not seeming to care that her "kidnapping" would kick off a huge shitfest? It just doesn't make sense. How could two smart people EVER think that it was a good idea?

I know it seems less likely that Rhaegar's a kidnapper and a rapist but IT MAKE NO SENSE

Again...this argument only works in hindsight, R & L had no way to know that Brandon would be so foolish to go to the Targ stronghold and demand for the crown prince to come out and die.

They also don't have any way to know that Aerys will name "fire" as his champion, making a mockery of the trial by combat and defying the laws & customs of Westeros, and that he will demand the heads of innocents like Ned and Robert.

Rhaegar surely knows his dad is mad, but not THAT mad.

If even one of those elements dissapears, the rebellion doesn't happen....the only offended houses would be the Starks, Baratheons and (if Elia never agreed) the Martells.

A compromise can be easily achieved by giving lands, other marriages and money.

[Twinslayer]

Here we go, the app says. The books says that when Aerys wanted Rhaegar that even Varys did not know where he was. Since Rhaegar did return, we need to assume that at some point he received (could be via Hightower) news of the rebellion, and understood the gravity of the situation. Even Aerys did not take the rebellion seriously before the Battle of the Bells. That is the timeframe that Rhaegar returns to the Red Keep in, shortly before the Trident.

Fair enough -- you're right, there is some controversy about whether the app is "canon." I should have said something like "if it is true that Aerys had a way to get in contact with Rhaegar . . ." Do you see a direct conflict between what the app says and what the book says? That would be interesting.

By the way, if I didn't mention it before, I think you may be onto something with the idea that Littlefinger instigated Brandon's actions. He certainly had motive.

[Ygrain]

Fair enough -- you're right, there is some controversy about whether the app is "canon." I should have said something like "if it is true that Aerys had a way to get in contact with Rhaegar . . ." Do you see a direct conflict between what the app says and what the book says? That would be interesting.

By the way, if I didn't mention it before, I think you may be onto something with the idea that Littlefinger instigated Brandon's actions. He certainly had motive.

And what exactly does the app say?

[Nelapsi]

I agree at 99% with what Corbon said. Robert might have started his revolution anyway...

[MtnLion]

By the way, if I didn't mention it before, I think you may be onto something with the idea that Littlefinger instigated Brandon's actions. He certainly had motive.

That is one of corbon's theories that I really liked on first exposure. It absolutely makes sense, especially if Lyanna and Rhaegar are encountered by Littlefinger while he being carried in his litter back to the Fingers. What could he have changed the message to be that would totally infuriate Brandon beyond recovery. Brandon rode for several days to get the Red Keep, and no one was able to sway him from his recklessness. Fortunately, their is one of the party that was a survivor, so I think we will evntually learn what that message was.

[Lady Gwynhyfvar]

Ah, but the hand of Littlefinger may have made the shitfest what it was. We have yet to know exactly what news Brandon received, or if it had been tainted byt he blooming annimosity of Lord Baelish. To run off to King's Landing with his escort, and to demand Prince Rhaegar show himself, without any reference to Lyanna, is to put it mildly strange. Who would confront the Mad King in the Red Keep in this manner?

It never made sense to me that Brandon would run to the Red Keep looking for Rhaegar, given Rhaegar's known estrangement from his father. But, according to the app (I know, I should find the right passage in the book, and I will try...) Brandon learned about Lynna's "abduction" right after leaving Riverrun and his infamous "duel" with Littlefinger. So LF somehow learns about the- let's call it elopement, for lack of a better word, because abduction just doesn't seem like what really happened- of Rhaegar and Lyanna and sends a message that goes something like this "Rhaegar has carried off your sister! He is holding her captive at the Red Keep. You must rescue her--and hurry!!" Brandon is a well known hot head and off he goes. Revenge for LF and shitfest ensues. We all know he thrives in chaos. He said so himself ;)

[Lady Gwynhyfvar]

That is one of corbon's theories that I really liked on first exposure. It absolutely makes sense, especially if Lyanna and Rhaegar are encountered by Littlefinger while he being carried in his litter back to the Fingers. What could he have changed the message to be that would totally infuriate Brandon beyond recovery. Brandon rode for several days to get the Red Keep, and no one was able to sway him from his recklessness. Fortunately, their is one of the party that was a survivor, so I think we will evntually learn what that message was.

Who is the survivor?

[Ser Leftwich]

Who is the survivor?

There was a survivor from Brandon's party that arrived at the Red Keep, Ethan Glover. He later died at the Tower of Joy, but there was some time after the Sack of KL and the Tower of Joy in which he was with Ned and others before he died. So, as usual, it all comes down to talking with Howland Reed.

[Ser Leftwich]

Elia was bedridden a half a year after bearing Rhaenys. There is a comment that Elia at Harrenhal is looking much better, and it is her first trip since giving birth to Rhaenys. The difference in age between Rhaenys and Aegon, while being somewhat vague still limits when the pregnancy of Aegon starts, and the year of winter following limits when Lyanna disappeared. (We need to include that Brandon dueled with Littlefinger after the winter was over, and the betrothal was announced. Was there a couple months between announcement and actual ceremony? It stands to reason, because Littlefinger was laid up for a fortnight after the duel, and as soon as he could be moved by litter was forced out of Riverrun.) I feel confident that we will learn that Ashara and Elia became pregnant at or near the time of Harrenhal's Tourney. They then give birth near the end of the winter that followed.

There are also the points of when Rhaegar and Elia got married, as a ceiling on Rhaenys's age, as well as she had to be old enough to name her cat, Balerion.