The Great Northern Conspiracy, part 3

[Valyrian Spoon]

These Northern Conspiracy threads are some of the most interesting reading on the boards at the moment.

I also think that Lady Dustins entire anti-Stark diatribe was meant for Roose or Ramsay should they ask why Reek was poking around in the crypts. Even if she does have some resentment for the Starks, since she's made her feelings towards Ramsay perfectly clear she must realise that her days are numbered should Ramsay inherit the North from his father.

[FittleLinger]

I also think it is a tainted offer, a tainted offer would taint the person taking advantage of it, and Jon, already in a precarious position as a bastard and a potential defector from the NW has got to keep himself whiter than white, white as snow, in fact.

Yeah, not only in the "lyrical" sense, but in the political, too! Forget about the godswood for a moment (though it is a major point) and think about it this way - the realm is at war, the King of the North - dead. Stannis is not of the North, he goes North to the only remaining Stark (be it a bastard), helps him, gets him in his debt, and then installs it as his pawn as lord of Winterfell. That's how everyone in the North would see it.

[Sasha Steelsong]

and whats her reason to hate the Boltons? She dosent know who burned winterfell and does she care abt that?

And freys get most of the blame for RW...not the boltons..

But as i said she could be...and this is a huge concern for Roose

Just the possibility that Ramsey could inherit and be her leige lord. It would be enough for me.

[nenya~]

I don't think Jon wants to be king. His vows to the Watch are more important than a will, of Winterfell. Besides, what has northern independence gotten the north? Nothing but death and sorrow. Northern independence is the greatest catastrophe to befall the north since the last time the Others walked.

Consider the effects of northern independence:

1. The iron islanders ravaged the shore, occupying keeps, burning villages etc.

2. Winterfell burned to the ground.

3. The Starks nearly annihalated along with much of the chivalry of the north.

4. Roose Bolton was made Lord Paramount of the north.

And all that was during summer. Now winter is here. You think now is the time to betray Stannis and turn your backs on the Southern lords? With the Others and the white walkers coming, you want the north to stand alone against them? That's folly. Jon knows this. Keeping the alliance with Stannis in hopes of getting southern support for the war against the others is far more important than trying to become king of the north. Jon knows the real threat is north of the wall, and resuming independence is not the way to fight it.

I don't know, I think Jon realizes the most important part of his NW vows is to protect the realm of men. He's already broken other parts of his vows in order to do this (when he went off with the wildings). He was considering becoming Lord of Winterfell, but ultimately turned it down mainly because he'd have to turn his back on the old gods. It seems like Jon's best chance at protecting the realm from the Others is to become a leader in the north, whether it's king, lord, or regent, in order to get the northern lords behind him.

As for the southern lords, how useful will they be now that winter has come? They aren't used to heavy snow or harsh winter conditions as we see in adwd. Getting support from the northern lords is much more important than any southerners, and I think the only reason there are northerners with Stannis right now is to get Winterfell back. Not to mention, it was Jon who sent Stannis to the northern clans.

[Sasha Steelsong]

That said I currently believe that she might've gone with Roose but she'll never go with Ramsay. Making the latter an enormous political liability for Roose and it will lead to his downfall.

I agree. Even ignoring for the moment that Roose is suspected of having played a part in the Red Wedding (I think the big clue being that he was at the wedding but somehow not a prisoner or dead), the problem with Bolton rule in the North is not actually Roose. Yes he had committed awful acts that he needs to pay for, he is a traitor and a lier, but he is not insane. So I think the fact that Ramsey at the moment stands as heir to the Warden of the North is another leg upon which the conspiracy is built. The northern lords are not in it JUST for revenge and out of love for the Starks, but for self-preservation in the long run.

ETA: While I believe in a Northern Conspiracy, I'm not as convinced of it all being set up to get to northern independance, in part because I do think Westeros will stay one country in the end (and yes I know that the original founders of the idea feel differently that is their right as this is mine), so I'm not sure I can say I fully buy THE Northern Conspiracy. That said I do wholeheartedly believe that the contents of Robb's will and the knowledge of Rickon are known to the various lords (though individual lords may not be aware of both), and that the North has been working quietly behind the scenes to return Winterfell to the Starks one way or another.

[FittleLinger]

I am also unsure about the independent North part, I don't think it's necessary for the conspiracy to exist. Imagine the North during Robert's reign - Ned is their lord and they are pretty much independent. And I think they were perfectly fine with those conditions.

[Prince of the North]

I agree. Even ignoring for the moment that Roose is suspected of having played a part in the Red Wedding (I think the big clue being that he was at the wedding but somehow not a prisoner or dead), the problem with Bolton rule in the North is not actually Roose. Yes he had committed awful acts that he needs to pay for, he is a traitor and a lier, but he is not insane. So I think the fact that Ramsey at the moment stands as heir to the Warden of the North is another leg upon which the conspiracy is built. The northern lords are not in it JUST for revenge and out of love for the Starks, but for self-preservation in the long run.

ETA: While I believe in a Northern Conspiracy, I'm not as convinced of it all being set up to get to northern independance, in part because I do think Westeros will stay one country in the end (and yes I know that the original founders of the idea feel differently that is their right as this is mine), so I'm not sure I can say I fully buy THE Northern Conspiracy. That said I do wholeheartedly believe that the contents of Robb's will and the knowledge of Rickon are known to the various lords (though individual lords may not be aware of both), and that the North has been working quietly behind the scenes to return Winterfell to the Starks one way or another.

I was going to post something akin to this but you beat me to it. So I'll just agree and leave it at that :)

[Bold Barry Whitebeard]

I don't know, I think Jon realizes the most important part of his NW vows is to protect the realm of men. He's already broken other parts of his vows in order to do this (when he went off with the wildings). He was considering becoming Lord of Winterfell, but ultimately turned it down mainly because he'd have to turn his back on the old gods. It seems like Jon's best chance at protecting the realm from the Others is to become a leader in the north, whether it's king, lord, or regent, in order to get the northern lords behind him.

As for the southern lords, how useful will they be now that winter has come? They aren't used to heavy snow or harsh winter conditions as we see in adwd. Getting support from the northern lords is much more important than any southerners, and I think the only reason there are northerners with Stannis right now is to get Winterfell back. Not to mention, it was Jon who sent Stannis to the northern clans.

Given all that has happened between Jon and Stannis, I think both would acknowledge that Jon accepting the crown of the north would be a betrayal of Stannis. I don't think Jon will see betraying Stannis as the best way of helping to fight the others. It would validate everything negative said about "bastard" born children.

Also, Jon is going to soon learn that Rickon and Bran are still alive. Is he also going to betray them by taking Winterfell before them?

Maybe he will decide that betraying them all for the crown is the best way to fight the others. But he can do all that, and be true to his vows to the Night's Watch, by declining the crown and supporting Rickon as Lord of Winterfell under King Stannis.

[lady m]

Maybe he will decide that betraying them all for the crown is the best way to fight the others. But he can do all that, and be true to his vows to the Night's Watch, by declining the crown and supporting Rickon as Lord of Winterfell under King Stannis.

That assumes Stannis is (1) long for this world, or (2) going to be on the same side as Jon for much longer. He's very set up in the upcoming battle to be the new Night King. Already has a lover who isn't a normal human, and might be a fire wight, they've had inhuman babies that threaten mankind, and now he's chosen his seat as the Night Fort.

And you're assuming all of this will happen in a logical order. He might have to make a decision with regard to Robb's will before he knows Rickon is alive. He'll probably know Bran is, but that Bran also has no way to become Lord of Winterfell.

[Bold Barry Whitebeard]

That assumes Stannis is (1) long for this world, or (2) going to be on the same side as Jon for much longer. He's very set up in the upcoming battle to be the new Night King. Already has a lover who isn't a normal human, and might be a fire wight, they've had inhuman babies that threaten mankind, and now he's chosen his seat as the Night Fort.

And you're assuming all of this will happen in a logical order. He might have to make a decision with regard to Robb's will before he knows Rickon is alive. He'll probably know Bran is, but that Bran also has no way to become Lord of Winterfell.

Manderly knows, and is working with Robett Glover, one of the bearers of the will. I think that Rickon being alive is an important part of the conspiracy. I also don't believe that Manderly is playing Davos for a fool. I think the aim of the conspiracy is to put Rickon in Winterfell.

Also, I really, really, don't believe that Stannis is going to be Night's King. I don't even think that the evidence in the text is setting him up to be the night's king. I suppose it's possible that if Mel betrays him in favor of Jon, he might seek to ally with the others. But that would cost him the north and the queen's men, and the wildlings. He wouldn't have the power to occupy the Night Fort and ally with the others. Nor would they want him.

Mel's POV makes it pretty clear that she's not some sort of secret Other agent, either.

[intheswamp]

I find it suspicious that Hother Umber would easily recognize Reek for Theon, but not be able to tell the difference between his liege lord's daughter and Jeyne.

Everyone knows that the Starks have grey eyes and long faces. (And, even if she took after her mother, her eyes would be blue.) Jeyne has brown eyes. It'd be "lucky" if no northerner in Winterfell or with Stannis noticed that she isn't very Stark or Tully looking.

Maybe, Whorsebane noticed this, and that is what he was whispering to Harwood Stout after the wedding.

I can't remember at the moment how well the Boltons hid Jeyne's face.

[Aegor]

Manderly knows, and is working with Robett Glover, one of the bearers of the will. I think that Rickon being alive is an important part of the conspiracy. I also don't believe that Manderly is playing Davos for a fool. I think the aim of the conspiracy is to put Rickon in Winterfell.

Galbart Glover has the will, not Robett. He wasnt even present when the will was made.

[lady m]

Manderly knows, and is working with Robett Glover, one of the bearers of the will. I think that Rickon being alive is an important part of the conspiracy. I also don't believe that Manderly is playing Davos for a fool. I think the aim of the conspiracy is to put Rickon in Winterfell.

Also, I really, really, don't believe that Stannis is going to be Night's King. I don't even think that the evidence in the text is setting him up to be the night's king. I suppose it's possible that if Mel betrays him in favor of Jon, he might seek to ally with the others. But that would cost him the north and the queen's men, and the wildlings. He wouldn't have the power to occupy the Night Fort and ally with the others. Nor would they want him.

Mel's POV makes it pretty clear that she's not some sort of secret Other agent, either.

I didn't say she's an Other, that is ice magic, as are their wights, I said fire wight. That would be the fire equivalent of what the wights are. She's not human, no sleep, doesn't eat or need to, she says her appearance is a glamor. And being a new Night King doesn't necessarily mean he's on the side of ice, he could be purely on the side of fire, which if he stays with Mel, works. Reread the bits about the Night King subbing ice for fire, it fits Mel & Stan.

Also, Manderly knows Rickon was alive some months ago. He does not have Rickon at this time, and doesn't know if Davos will make it back from Skagos.

Robert Glover is Galbert Glover's brother.

Intheswamp, if you read the old threads, most don't think anyone buys that Jeyne is Arya. Mance either. It has to do with Theon's fixation on her eyes.

[Bold Barry Whitebeard]

Galbart Glover has the will, not Robett. He wasnt even present when the will was made.

Whoops. Too many Glovers. Even still, if Manderly is part of the conspiracy, then the conspiracy knows. If he's not, then it seems there are two northern conspiracies afoot.

[intheswamp]

Intheswamp, if you read the old threads, most don't think anyone buys that Jeyne is Arya. Mance either. It has to do with Theon's fixation on her eyes.

Oops, these threads are too long. :blushing:

[Sasha Steelsong]

I find it suspicious that Hother Umber would easily recognize Reek for Theon, but not be able to tell the difference between his liege lord's daughter and Jeyne.

We don't know that for certain however. All we know is that by outward apperances he seems to believe Jayne is Arya. I think the North are just biding their time to get their ducks in a row before demonstrating exactly how little they believe Roose's and the Frey's lies.

[jon stark I]

Manderly knows what happened because his son knows.Recently his son returned from prison and he was at RW so he knows what Roose did.

[Sasha Steelsong]

Manderly knows what happened because his son knows.Recently his son returned from prison and he was at RW so he knows what Roose did.

True, though I think Manderly probably had deep suspicions that he son just confirmed. Was his son actually around Robb when he died? If so that would be awesome cause the only person I can think of who is still alive who likely saw Roose stab Robb is the GreatJon.

[jon stark I]

It doesn't really matter if he was close to the action.He was in the same prison as Greatjon and all the others.So prisoners talk or yell at each other to communicate.But IIRC he was close by while that happened.

[Sasha Steelsong]

It doesn't really matter if he was close to the action.He was in the same prison as Greatjon and all the others.So prisoners talk or yell at each other to communicate.But IIRC he was close by while that happened.

Good point! Hadn't actually thought about the prisoners chatting afterwards, though it seems obvious in retrospect. Good then the North has several ways it can find out the true depth of Roose's betrayal. Though I'm personally still hoping that the GreatJon escapes and then makes a beeline for Roose as fast as he can. :)