The Great Northern Conspiracy, part 3

[FittleLinger]

I've just glanced at this thread so forgive me if this has already been mentioned but Lady Stoneheart was also witness to the Red Wedding. Now, we can certainly debate whether she's still "alive" but she's certainly still able to relay what happened.

I don't think anyone really doubts what happened at the RW. As Manderley says, they everybody knows that the Northeners will have to pretend or die.

[Valyrian Spoon]

It specifically says that Hodor's sword is old and rusty--makes sense that his would have been older, a former king's.

Yeah it has to be at least three hundred years old if it was a former Kings. I always thought it odd that as they passed more recent swords as they neared the crypt entrance that nobody thought to give Hodor a better one.

[sabrecmc]

Ah, I'd forgotten, or actually never noticed, that Bran and his merry gang took the swords. Well, that's...boring, LOL. I wanted it to mean something! Oh well. Sometimes a train is just a train...

[Prince of the North]

I don't think anyone really doubts what happened at the RW. As Manderley says, they everybody knows that the Northeners will have to pretend or die.

Yeah, I was just responding basically to the talk a bit earlier in the thread surrounding whether the GreatJon actually saw what happened and whether he was the only person still alive who did. It just seemed like maybe we were forgetting Lady Stoneheart. As I said, I was just quickly skimming so I could have gotten the wrong impression.

[VaramyrSixchins]

Bran and co. are the ones that took the swords. That's why I think Lady Dustin takes note of it...Wex tells the Manderlys that they hid in the crypts and took the swords. Once that info gets to Lady Dustin, she goes to the crypts to confirm if the swords were actually taken.

eta: And to be more specific, Osha takes Ned's sword, Meera takes Lord Rickard's, and Bran takes his Uncle Brandons (this is in asos).

Not sure about the others. Lady Dustin says "That king is missing a sword," so probably Hodor took that one? Can't remember if Jojen took one?

I've read this argument before, but it begs the question of why seek confirmation after Davos had already been dispatched? At the time of Davos's departure, WF had not been reoccupied yet. If Manderly needed confirmation of Wex's story, why not send someone more trusted to WF to check the missing sword detail? There are reasons why this would have been impractical sure, but what would have happened if it turned out the swords were there, and Wex wrong about that detail? Sending Davos in the first place pretty much says "all-in" on this notion of retrieving Rickon, no? If so, why bother getting confirmation at all?

[Valyrian Spoon]

@ VaramyrSixchins in answer to your question I suspect that Lady Dustin wanted her own confirmation. We know that Manderly lost a son at the RW and at the mere sniff of overthrowing Bolton and killing some Freys he's all in.

Lady Dustin wants more than a second hand story from an Ironborn survivor before she shows her hand. I think this is why she wanted to see the Crypts.

[Elba the Intoner]

Ah, I'd forgotten, or actually never noticed, that Bran and his merry gang took the swords. Well, that's...boring, LOL. I wanted it to mean something! Oh well. Sometimes a train is just a train...

Hmm well perhaps someone who is really good with foreshadowing could figure out if there's significance or some kind of symbolism regarding which person took which sword. Like for example it seems that the most recent dead Stark men's swords are the three that are taken (Ned's, Rickard's and Brandon's) and then one much older sword. Maybe that the three most recent dead Stark men (not counting Benjen who I am assuming is not dead) means that their direct line of descendants will return to fight for Winterfell once again and will return (as Jojen indicated the wolves will return) and maybe even the older sword could have been from the last Stark lord who might have been in the Night's Watch, even perhaps the last Stark Lord Commander of the Night's Watch, which could refer to Jon. IDK.

[Noelle Snow]

I don't think anyone really doubts what happened at the RW. As Manderley says, they everybody knows that the Northeners will have to pretend or die.

Yes but there was concern that there were no real witnesses to Roose murdering Robb. Anyone in the hall who may have told about it is dead, a Bolton man or a Frey. So the North knows the Boltons pulled some shit but may not know Roose's hand was the offical murderer. Except Lady Stoneheart can convey the full extent of his treachery as she's the only "living" witness who that would actual matter to.

[FittleLinger]

Yeah, I was just responding basically to the talk a bit earlier in the thread surrounding whether the GreatJon actually saw what happened and whether he was the only person still alive who did. It just seemed like maybe we were forgetting Lady Stoneheart. As I said, I was just quickly skimming so I could have gotten the wrong impression.

Right, sorry, I didn't realize it was concerning this talk earlier, in fact I had forgotten the talk. I think it's very signifficant what you are saying, because...

Yes but there was concern that there were no real witnesses to Roose murdering Robb. Anyone in the hall who may have told about it is dead, a Bolton man or a Frey. So the North knows the Boltons pulled some shit but may not know Roose's hand was the offical murderer. Except Lady Stoneheart can convey the full extent of his treachery as she's the only "living" witness who that would actual matter to.

... I think Harwin is the Hooded man in WF, and I think he knows through Stoneheart that Roose killed Robb. That's right, I think that the walking knowledge of Roose murdering Robb is in WF right now!

[VaramyrSixchins]

@ VaramyrSixchins in answer to your question I suspect that Lady Dustin wanted her own confirmation. We know that Manderly lost a son at the RW and at the mere sniff of overthrowing Bolton and killing some Freys he's all in.

Lady Dustin wants more than a second hand story from an Ironborn survivor before she shows her hand. I think this is why she wanted to see the Crypts.

But why would Manderly trust her enough to divulge Wex's story? While the Great Northern Conspiracy has some very compelling points and a lot of textual evidence, I'm not convinced Lady Dustin is a member.

Her contention that she intentionally sent as few troops as possible w Robb is borne out somewhat by the notable lack of mention of Dustins or Ryswells during the war.

Roose apparently is convinced she's staunch, not by just his words but her appearance w Frey and Ryswell in the solar during the confrontation w Theon about the murders, a time when mistrust is at its peak.

Her resentment regarding the maesters around "southron ambitions" and Rickard Stark is consistent w her resentment about the situation around she and Brandon.

Nothing she says to Theon is untrue, in regards to Roose's character, the treatment of "Arya" and it's effect on morale, or Roose's caution. Also, what would she have to gain by disparaging Manderly to Theon? How could she contribute to the conspiracy's aims by doing this? It's not as if Theon could do anything to further foment mistrust between Manderly and Roose.

The bottom line is, for Lady Dustin to confirm a missing sword detail means she would have to have knowledge of Wex's story (IIRC the Liddle Bran and Co meets was not told about the crypt refuge, or where the swords they carried came from) Manderly, or someone he told, would have to tell her. I'm not convinced he did...

[Valyrian Spoon]

Snip

I know that my explanation isn't ideal. I do agree with you that Lady Dustin is a dangerously loose plank in this conspiracy.

[Valyrian Spoon]

Right, sorry, I didn't realize it was concerning this talk earlier, in fact I had forgotten the talk. I think it's very signifficant what you are saying, because...

... I think Harwin is the Hooded man in WF, and I think he knows through Stoneheart that Roose killed Robb. That's right, I think that the walking knowledge of Roose murdering Robb is in WF right now!

I also believe Harwin is the Hooded Man. Do the timelines add up so that the Northern Lords turning on Roose and whatever Stoneheart is organising in the Riverlands coincide? Not down to the second obviously but could there be communication/co-ordination.

[nenya~]

Hmm well perhaps someone who is really good with foreshadowing could figure out if there's significance or some kind of symbolism regarding which person took which sword. Like for example it seems that the most recent dead Stark men's swords are the three that are taken (Ned's, Rickard's and Brandon's) and then one much older sword. Maybe that the three most recent dead Stark men (not counting Benjen who I am assuming is not dead) means that their direct line of descendants will return to fight for Winterfell once again and will return (as Jojen indicated the wolves will return) and maybe even the older sword could have been from the last Stark lord who might have been in the Night's Watch, even perhaps the last Stark Lord Commander of the Night's Watch, which could refer to Jon. IDK.

I've thought about this as well, and have come to the conclusion that because Hodor was the only one to take a sword from a king, he will become King in the North! Hodor! Lol, but seriously, I have no idea either.

The bottom line is, for Lady Dustin to confirm a missing sword detail means she would have to have knowledge of Wex's story (IIRC the Liddle Bran and Co meets was not told about the crypt refuge, or where the swords they carried came from) Manderly, or someone he told, would have to tell her. I'm not convinced he did...

Did you read the OP?

"Elsewhere one-armed Harwood Stout talked quietly with the cadaverous Whoresbane Umber." ( p. 536)

The Stouts are sworn to Lady Dustin. So basically Manderly tells Umber, Umber tells Stout, and Stout tells Lady Dustin.

[FittleLinger]

I also believe Harwin is the Hooded Man. Do the timelines add up so that the Northern Lords turning on Roose and whatever Stoneheart is organising in the Riverlands coincide? Not down to the second obviously but could there be communication/co-ordination.

I am not sure Stoneheart is organizing anything per se, and I also don't think Harwin has told anybody about Roose at this point. I think that she planted Tom O' Sevens in Riverrun, because there she has kin and Freys to kill, so same with Harwin - in WF because of "Arya" and some Freys to kill (I believe he might have killed Little Walder).

I think that he is either already or will start soon conspiring with Manderley, and they will do a triple - Manderley will turn on the Freys and lie that Stannis is dead, Davos will bring Rickon, and Harwin will tell about the RW, Stoneheart, and that Arya was never Arya. Or at least they will try to pull it off.

Oh, and another thing - Harwin knows real Arya is actually alive, or at least was untill recently. I think it's a great ace up his sleeve.

[VaramyrSixchins]

I've thought about this as well, and have come to the conclusion that because Hodor was the only one to take a sword from a king, he will become King in the North! Hodor! Lol, but seriously, I have no idea either.

Did you read the OP?

"Elsewhere one-armed Harwood Stout talked quietly with the cadaverous Whoresbane Umber." ( p. 536)

The Stouts are sworn to Lady Dustin. So basically Manderly tells Umber, Umber tells Stout, and Stout tells Lady Dustin.

When I read that, I pictured a "Chinese Whispers" game. Manderly whispers to Umber "Bran and Rickon hid in the crypts", and it goes down the line until Lady Dustin, confused, says aloud "Breckin Meyer's chicken strips?!"... :)

Seriously, I'm not saying it's impossible, I'm simply saying on the surface, there would be many obstacles preventing Manderly from trusting her, as there are several consistent signs she's siding w Bolton, and very little evidence that any of the conspiracy members are working to find the veracity of her claims, let alone trusting her...

[tze]

But why would Manderly trust her enough to divulge Wex's story?

Because she knows that Ramsay murdered her beloved nephew Domeric. This entire episode takes place at Ramsay's wedding, after Ramsay has been legitimized and named as heir to House Bolton and the entire North, as Ramsay is being given the most prestigious piece of real estate in the North (Winterfell). Lady Dustin has every reason to be amenable to a conspiracy geared around knocking Ramsay out of power and no reason whatsoever to support Roose as he enriches and ennobles her nephew's murderer. And given that she makes no secret of how much she detests Ramsay, Manderly doubtless knows this, which would explain how and why he would be comfortable approaching her.

Roose apparently is convinced she's staunch, not by just his words but her appearance w Frey and Ryswell in the solar during the confrontation w Theon about the murders, a time when mistrust is at its peak.

Actually, look at what Lady Dustin says during that meeting:

Night work is not knight’s work,” Lady Dustin said. “And Lord Wyman is not the only man who lost kin at your Red Wedding, Frey. Do you imagine Whoresbane loves you any better? If you did not hold the Greatjon, he would pull out your entrails and make you eat them, as Lady Hornwood ate her fingers. Flints, Cerwyns, Tallharts, Slates … they all had men with the Young Wolf.”

“House Ryswell too,” said Roger Ryswell. “Even Dustins out of Barrowton.” Lady Dustin parted her lips in a thin, feral smile. “The north remembers, Frey.”

So not only does Lady Dustin already have an excellent reason to oppose House Bolton (Roose for supporting Ramsay, Ramsay for . . . being Ramsay), but here we find that House Dustin lost people at the Red Wedding and Lady Dustin is rather pissed about that fact. To say nothing of the fact that "the North remembers" is a phrase we first hear from Lord Manderly. Lady Dustin is flat-out quoting Lord Manderly's Catchphrase of Vengeance, which I sincerely doubt is coincidental.

[FittleLinger]

Because she knows that Ramsay murdered her beloved nephew Domeric. This entire episode takes place at Ramsay's wedding, after Ramsay has been legitimized and named as heir to House Bolton and the entire North, as Ramsay is being given the most prestigious piece of real estate in the North (Winterfell). Lady Dustin has every reason to be amenable to a conspiracy geared around knocking Ramsay out of power and no reason whatsoever to support Roose as he enriches and ennobles her nephew's murderer. And given that she makes no secret of how much she detests Ramsay, Manderly doubtless knows this, which would explain how and why he would be comfortable approaching her.

Actually, look at what Lady Dustin says during that meeting:

So not only does Lady Dustin already have an excellent reason to oppose House Bolton (Roose for supporting Ramsay, Ramsay for . . . being Ramsay), but here we find that House Dustin lost people at the Red Wedding and Lady Dustin is rather pissed about that fact. To say nothing of the fact that "the North remembers" is a phrase we first hear from Lord Manderly. Lady Dustin is flat-out quoting Lord Manderly's Catchphrase of Vengeance, which I sincerely doubt is coincidental.

I agree with everything you said, tze, as I have discussed it before and come to similar conclusions, but I want to specifically highlight that part. Do any other Northeners use that phrase in the books. I mean, the show made it it's catchphrase, and kind of made it sound as famous and widespread as "Winter is coming". That's not the case in the books. Who else uses it? That's a genuine question, I don't have the books and haven't reread in a while.

[nenya~]

I agree with everything you said, tze, as I have discussed it before and come to similar conclusions, but I want to specifically highlight that part. Do any other Northeners use that phrase in the books. I mean, the show made it it's catchphrase, and kind of made it sound as famous and widespread as "Winter is coming". That's not the case in the books. Who else uses it? That's a genuine question, I don't have the books and haven't reread in a while.

Robb - Robb shook his head. “Even if Harrion were that sort, he could never openly forgive his father’s killer. His own men would turn on him. These are northmen, Uncle. The north remembers.”

Other than that, only Manderly and Lady Dustin.

[FittleLinger]

Robb - Robb shook his head. “Even if Harrion were that sort, he could never openly forgive his father’s killer. His own men would turn on him. These are northmen, Uncle. The north remembers.”

Other than that, only Manderly and Lady Dustin.

Thank you nenya! Well,this doesn't prove either way - that it's widespread or not, as only the king and two others used it, but the counter argument can be made that if the king uses it, maybe it's somewhat of a motto. And he uses it in the context of generalizing about Northmen, so, yeah, maybe it's a known phrase. OTOH, maybe it became known during the WOT5K, as in the North remembers what happened to Ned and the Starks on this particular occasion, so this could still support the point of Dustin being on side with Manderley. Still, I think there are other points pointing towards that, and I think a lot of them were discussed this same thread some pages ago.

[With A Trebuchet]

I love the points made about Harwin being the Hooded Man. I'd never really considered it, but there must be a reason that he was seen by Arya and now presumably Lady Stoneheart, and if he is now in Winterfell he would be able to pass on info about what happened at the RW as well as prove that Arya is fake (he has seen her quite recently with the BwB and would also presumably be able to identify Jeyne?) Also he would know his way around Winterfell which backs it up, and hey, maybe he is aware of secret passages which could be how he is getting around/in and out, but it could also be important later on if he passes on this knowledge. I reallly want this to be true because I think it could be an awesome part of the story with him confirming the other characters' suspicions.