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The Great Northern Conspiracy, part 3


nenya~

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Whoops. Too many Glovers. Even still, if Manderly is part of the conspiracy, then the conspiracy knows. If he's not, then it seems there are two northern conspiracies afoot.

Oh, I definitely think there's more than 1 conspiracy. But by the end of ADWD, some of those may be starting to converge as people part of the different conspiracies start to meet up (e.g. Alysanne, who likely knows of Robb's Will and the Mountain Clans who know Bran is alive, have probably done some info swapping by the time they start marching towards Winterfell).

Good point! Hadn't actually thought about the prisoners chatting afterwards, though it seems obvious in retrospect. Good then the North has several ways it can find out the true depth of Roose's betrayal. Though I'm personally still hoping that the GreatJon escapes and then makes a beeline for Roose as fast as he can. :)

Manderly has already said he knows of Roose's and Ramsay's betrayals:

The Lord of White Harbor leaned forward. “The Freys are no better. They speak of wargs and skinchangers and assert that it was Robb Stark who slew my Wendel. The arrogance of it! They do not expect the north to believe their lies, not truly, but they think we must pretend to believe or die. Roose Bolton lies about his part in the Red Wedding, and his bastard lies about the fall of Winterfell. And yet so long as they held Wylis I had no choice but to eat all this excrement and praise the taste.

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Manderly has already said he knows of Roose's and Ramsay's betrayals:

The Lord of White Harbor leaned forward. “The Freys are no better. They speak of wargs and skinchangers and assert that it was Robb Stark who slew my Wendel. The arrogance of it! They do not expect the north to believe their lies, not truly, but they think we must pretend to believe or die. Roose Bolton lies about his part in the Red Wedding, and his bastard lies about the fall of Winterfell. And yet so long as they held Wylis I had no choice but to eat all this excrement and praise the taste.

Yes but that doesn't address whether he knows specifically that Roose killed Robb, from the statement it is hard to tell. I think he's totally aware however, that Roose had a large part in planning it, which I'm sure Roose has been publically denying since he made it back to the North (though come to think of it I'm not sure if we've been given any explanation from Roose as to how he supposedly survived the RW without being involved or taken prisoner). Either way if he didn't know at that point (not sure if when he talked to Davos he'd had a chance to talk to his son alone), he certainly has the opportunity to get the info between that Davos chapter and arriving at Winterfell. It does also make me wonder if he had the Freys killed outright or tickled them for a bit more information before turning them into pie filling.

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I absolutely love this Northern Conspiracy. The more I read about it, the more it makes me want to jump into the books and scream THE NORTH REMEMBERS, MADDAFAKKA'S! It just reminds me of the fact that the North isn't done yet, and that they still follow the Starks, they are still loyal to the Starks. That's just.. Beautiful.

Yep, that's why I love it too. It's very easy to be "loyal" when a house is in power and riding high. It's when you're at your lowest that your true friends are revealed. The Starks are as low as you can get at this point (but will of course come back up), and people are still loyal and willing to fight for them. I can't think of a single other family in this series, including the Lannisters and the Targaryens, who command that sort of bone-deep love. It's very powerful.

Yes but that doesn't address whether he knows specifically that Roose killed Robb, from the statement it is hard to tell.

I agree with this but honestly I'm not sure it matters. Roose's obvious complicity in Robb's death is enough to hang him for these people; knowing he personally killed Robb is just that extra icing.

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Yep, that's why I love it too. It's very easy to be "loyal" when a house is in power and riding high. It's when you're at your lowest that your true friends are revealed. The Starks are as low as you can get at this point (but will of course come back up), and people are still loyal and willing to fight for them. I can't thik of a single other family in this series, including the Lannisters and the Targaryens, who command that sort of bone-deep love. It's very powerful.

Very well said. Those of us hanging on all the Manderly and Conspiracy threads likely are feeling this way. It is about damn time the North and the Starks caught a break!

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Yep, that's why I love it too. It's very easy to be "loyal" when a house is in power and riding high. It's when you're at your lowest that your true friends are revealed. The Starks are as low as you can get at this point (but will of course come back up), and people are still loyal and willing to fight for them. I can't thik of a single other family in this series, including the Lannisters and the Targaryens, who command that sort of bone-deep love. It's very powerful.

I agree with this but honestly I'm not sure it matters. Roose's obvious complicity in Robb's death is enough to hang him for these people; knowing he personally killed Robb is just that extra icing.

The Davos/Manderly Wolf's Den chapter is honestly one of my favorites in the whole series because it shows the depth of the love the North has for the Starks, and you're right I don't know of any other Great House that we've seen has that sort of support - maybe Dorne given how pissed they were about Oberyn's death but hard to tell since there are still adults ruling Dorne and House Martel has not been dispossessed. Definitely very powerful. I love that you also see it in the way the mountain clan lords talk about rescuing "the Ned's little girl."

As for knowing or not, I know in reality it doesn't matter, but I'm just dying (pun intended) for someone to tell Roose that Robb Stark sends his regards right before they gut him...which is only really possible if someone knows the details.

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Wylis Manderly was not at the RW. He had been taken prisoner first at the Battle of Green Fork and then at a battle near the Trident. He was kept both times at Harrenhall, first under Vargo Hoat and then Gregor Clegane. It is Wyman's younger son, Wendell, who was part of Robb's "Kingsguard" that was at the RW and he died there. Wyman Manderly doesn't need to have his son confirm for him what happened at the RW. The Freys' story that the Northmen had turned into werewolves and the Freys were only protecting themselves was an obvious lie. Roose Bolton being made Warden of the North was reward for services rendered. It was pretty obvious what "services" were rendered. Wyman Manderly understood completely what happened at the RW, he was simply unable to do anything about it until Wylis was returned to him.

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So, we're waiting on The GreatJon to get back north. One has to wonder how Roose plans on handling that. All the various Northmen held as hostages since the wedding know what happened and know Roose ultimately killed Robb. I know Roose wants more power, but his plan makes no sense, and no one at the wedding can ever make it home for him to hold onto power for any length of time.

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Glad to see this theory is still going strong. A few points for further discussion:

One thing I'd like to figure out is a more detailed timeline of who knew what when. Immediately following the Red Wedding, I think there probably existed several independent conspiracies hatched by the loyal northern lords to oust the Boltons and Freys, treacherous killers of their kin. News of first Bran and Rickon's survival of the sack of Winterfell, then Jon being named heir and King in the North by Robb has to spread, and those who have opportunity to learn of either must be suspected of collusion given that word of the Starks has yet to reach the ears of Stannis or the Boltons.

It's assumed the mountain clans know of Bran and Rickon from after the Liddle's encounter with Bran and the Reeds early in ASOS. The clansmen tell no one of what they see, IMO; according to the Liddle, Bolton men ride the kingsroad offering reward for information of the boys' whereabouts. Even if Osha and Rickon didn't head south to White Harbor or Wex not somehow find his way into Manderly's custody, the fact that the Boltons still search for two reportedly dead children might have tipped off Manderly and others, like the Umbers, to Theon and Ramsay's lie. At any rate, Manderly definitely knows of Rickon and presumably Bran by ADWD but would, I feel, not have a chance to compare notes with the clansmen until they join Stannis's march and even then only through intermediaries.

A possible candidate for Manderly's contact among the clansmen is Alysane Mormont, who comes unexpectedly to help take Deepwood Motte back from the ironborn. Common speculation says Alysane's heard from her mother, seeing as she knows what her sisters Lyra and Jorelle are up to in the south. Lady Maege was last seen sailing into the Neck to reach Greywater Watch and, if she's back in communication with the North, Howland Reed's apparently found her.

Plus, if Maege Mormont succeeded in her mission, why not Galbart Glover with the same? Could he have sent r-mail to his brother Robett, with Manderly? Has Robett been in White Harbor since Galbart went south with Robb? I'm not too clear on the timing of Robett's movements, if noted, with Asha's occupation of Deepwood Motte either. And does Alysane aiding Robett's wife and children imply a deeper cooperation? Basically, some investigation of the Glovers as a link between Manderly and the Mormonts--and thus to the hill clans accompanying Stannis--is warranted, IMO.

It's been theorized the clansmen first learn of Robb's will from Alysane on the way to Winterfell, and this is why Flint and Norrey turn up uninvited at the Wall. Not to attend Alys Karstark's wedding but to take the measure of Jon Snow, who they may already suspect of having advised Stannis in seeking support from quarters he otherwise wouldn't be expected to consider.

However, if Galbart's been in contact with Robett, Manderly might also know of Robb legitimizing Jon as King in the North by the time he receives Davos. The Glovers are not Manderly's only potential source of information on Robb's will either. Edmure Tully, who witnesses the will, confirms its contents to the Blackfish prior to the surrender of Riverrun, as the story goes. Ser Brynden then charges Desmond Grell, master-at-arms, and Robin Ryger, captain of guards, with the task of serving Jon notice of his new crown at the Wall. Grell and Ryger are escorted to Maidenpool, likely to take ship to Eastwatch, but have yet to arrive at their destination. Another group that made a stopover at White Harbor?

UnCat and her outlaws coordinating with the northmen via Howland Reed, particularly in freeing the prisoners of the Red Wedding, has been analyzed before. So has Manderly plotting with Mance Rayder on the road and, elsewhere, Harwin as the hooded man in Winterfell. In the first thread, the possibility that the Blackfish is headed to the Vale was briefly discussed. It might be worthwhile to peruse Catelyn, Tyrion, and Sansa's chapters again for hints as to how the Lords Declarant, such as the Royces, would react to the Grand Northern Conspiracy. It's believed Lady Myranda's sussed out Alayne Stone's true identity in their conversation about Jon Snow, and this is bound to have an impact on the northern succession.

TL;DR: Glovers? Vale? :laugh:

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Yeade, great summary on the whole northern conspiracy. I'm going to link your post in the OP so people who haven't read the other threads can read it.

Regarding Robett Glover, he was one of the men sent to Duskendale and captured. I'm not sure how long he's been in White Harbor, but I think there was a prisoner exchange back in ASOS.

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Oh, gods, please don't link my previous post in the OP as suggested reading, nenya~! There are better selections that provide more insight than my cursory review, IMO, which was written mostly to talk myself through the proposed conspiracy's key moving parts.

I nominate instead two of tze's posts: #3, a very early reply to the original thread that essentially lays the foundations of the theory, and #215, speculation on an alliance between the northern clansmen and wildlings that has since gotten somewhat lost in the discussion. Of my own work, only #213 in the second thread could be considered essential for the rundown on UnCat and the Brotherhood Without Banners. Recommended shorter related threads include Robb's Will Doesn't Really Matter and Manderly's Other Songs, which itself sprouted from the also helpful Have the Starks Forfeited Their Claim on Winterfell?

Anyways, returning to the topic now, lol, Robett Glover seems to be quite elusive. I wonder if the folks with digital versions of the books could do a search for his name so that his whereabouts can be tracked. When does he return to the North? And does he head straight for White Harbor? There might even be some clues in Asha's chapters at Deepwood Motte. Plus, he disappears again after Davos's audiences with Manderly. The speculation's that Glover commands another northern army also on the march to Winterfell, IIRC, without the Boltons or Stannis's knowledge and hidden by the snow, maybe by way of the White Knife.

This is reminiscent of how the Mormont women are kind of missing in action, actually. I think prior re-readings confirmed that only Dacey is noted as accompanying her mother south, but Alysane, Lyra, and Jorelle could not have been on Bear Island when Stannis's call for support arrives or else their youngest sister, Lyanna, wouldn't be responding to his letter. Alysane eventually comes to Deepwood Motte with news that Lyra and Jorelle are with Lady Maege. Question is, when did all these movements happen? Days and possibly weeks pass after Stannis's arrival at the Wall, I believe, so there's time for, well, a conspiracy to be hatched. Immediately following Deepwood Motte's liberation from the ironborn, a hodgepodge of northmen, including men from the houses in Winterfell with the Boltons, join Stannis's forces. Is this coincidence or planned by the Mormonts and co-conspirators?

In the end, these questions may be unanswerable because, if any part of the Grand Northern Conspiracy is in fact afoot, the revelation of what Manderly and Mance Rayder, the Mormonts, Glovers, and hill clansmen, Howland Reed, the Blackfish and Brotherhood Without Banners are up to will surely be a dramatic moment or an entire series of such in TWOW. On a meta level, I suppose it can be argued that the present inability to account for what the aforementioned people are doing and, more importantly, why is evidence of authorial intent in favor of the theory. For, if GRRM didn't have a conspiracy to hide, why leave the northmen's actions so mysterious?

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Really great summary, Yeade. Two things you mentioned that I don't see brought up a lot but do a great job of tying the Northern Conspiracy with what's going on in the Riverlands are 1. Brynden and Edmure having their unseen chat and 2. the Riverrun guys conveniently choosing to take the black after the castle falls. Both incidences are kind of glossed over when they happen, but might become important later. Edmure's self-satisfied look when Bryden is confirmed missing is noted by Jaime — what does he know? And if Brynden's goal is to go to the Vale and enlist help there from men who wanted to declare for Robb in the beginning, then that ties the Vale (and possibly Sansa) into it, too.

Similarly, most people focus on UnCat hanging Ryman Frey, but overlook the change in possession of Robb's crown and the fact that the Brotherhood seems to be using the Neck as a hideout, which implies collusion with the crannogmen. The more I reread those scenes — and I've said as much elsewhere on here — the more I really think the "real" story there is the crown and not necessarily Ryman.

I am acting on the assumption that both Manderly and Robett Glover know the contents of Robb's will when they send Davos to fetch Rickon. The Manderlys, Glovers and Momonts are all tied together, and I suggested in the thread about Osha and Rickon stopping in White Harbor that Manderly might have made contact with the Umbers about Bran and whether he made it to Last Hearth. The mountain clans know that Bran at least is alive, and I also believe that the clan leaders came to the Wall to scope out Jon and take measure of him.

One thing that's bugged me lately is discussed in the spoiler below.

In Theon's WoW preview, Stannis mentions that the northmen want to see Theon executed for killing Bran and Rickon. Among the names he gives are those belonging to the mountain clans ... the guys who already know that Bran and presumably Rickon are still alive. It seemed weird to me that almost all of the major northern players at this point know that the boys are alive; it's a terribly kept secret. So why are they so eager to execute Theon for a crime they know at this point he didn't commit? (Not touching on whether he deserves to die for killing the miller's boys; the crime in the preview is explicitly the deaths of the Stark boys.)

They could execute him as a traitor for taking Winterfell and etraying Robb, true. But again, that's not the specific crime they lay at his feet; it's the boys' deaths. Then it occurred to me that they might want Theon dead BECAUSE he knows that the boys are still alive. Stannis' savior complex in the north seems to rest on gaining support by helping the northerners avenge the deaths of Ned's sons. But if he learns that the boys are still alive, they could become his pawns, his hostages for good behavior or worse, targets because he sees them as competition. Dead, they're focal points of vengeance; alive, and what do the northerners need him for?

I have speculated that the biggest reason no one has told Jon yet about the will is because of Stannis' presence on the Wall. If Stannis sees Jon as a rival, he could turn on him. Same basic principle holds true for the boys — if Stannis knows they're alive, it's a game-changer. The northmen are, I believe, turning Stannis and Bolton on each other and then taking out the weakened "victor" before reinstalling the Starks. In which case, the northerners are calling for Theon's death not because they think he killed the boys, but because he's the major wildcard who could "out" their survival to Stannis and piss in the Cheerios. And yes I know that Manderly promised Davos that he'd support Stannis if Davos brought Rickon back, but I don't see that ever being followed through.

Probably the most satisfying thing for me is going to be when the curtain falls back and the GNC is revealed fully. I'm very curious to see how widespread it really is (or isn't).

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So, we're waiting on The GreatJon to get back north. One has to wonder how Roose plans on handling that. All the various Northmen held as hostages since the wedding know what happened and know Roose ultimately killed Robb. I know Roose wants more power, but his plan makes no sense, and no one at the wedding can ever make it home for him to hold onto power for any length of time.

They may only suspect, unless one of the stupid Freys squeals. Remember, all of the northmen loyal to Robb that were in the wedding hall died there. Even Cat was killed but, she came back, she is the only survivor of Robb's faction that knows, because she saw Roose come from behind Robb and say "Jaime Lannister sends his regards" before stabbing Robb through his back and his heart.
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Really great summary, Yeade. Two things you mentioned that I don't see brought up a lot but do a great job of tying the Northern Conspiracy with what's going on in the Riverlands are 1. Brynden and Edmure having their unseen chat and 2. the Riverrun guys conveniently choosing to take the black after the castle falls. Both incidences are kind of glossed over when they happen, but might become important later. Edmure's self-satisfied look when Bryden is confirmed missing is noted by Jaime — what does he know? And if Brynden's goal is to go to the Vale and enlist help there from men who wanted to declare for Robb in the beginning, then that ties the Vale (and possibly Sansa) into it, too.

Similarly, most people focus on UnCat hanging Ryman Frey, but overlook the change in possession of Robb's crown and the fact that the Brotherhood seems to be using the Neck as a hideout, which implies collusion with the crannogmen. The more I reread those scenes — and I've said as much elsewhere on here — the more I really think the "real" story there is the crown and not necessarily Ryman.

I am acting on the assumption that both Manderly and Robett Glover know the contents of Robb's will when they send Davos to fetch Rickon. The Manderlys, Glovers and Momonts are all tied together, and I suggested in the thread about Osha and Rickon stopping in White Harbor that Manderly might have made contact with the Umbers about Bran and whether he made it to Last Hearth. The mountain clans know that Bran at least is alive, and I also believe that the clan leaders came to the Wall to scope out Jon and take measure of him.

One thing that's bugged me lately is discussed in the spoiler below.

In Theon's WoW preview, Stannis mentions that the northmen want to see Theon executed for killing Bran and Rickon. Among the names he gives are those belonging to the mountain clans ... the guys who already know that Bran and presumably Rickon are still alive. It seemed weird to me that almost all of the major northern players at this point know that the boys are alive; it's a terribly kept secret. So why are they so eager to execute Theon for a crime they know at this point he didn't commit? (Not touching on whether he deserves to die for killing the miller's boys; the crime in the preview is explicitly the deaths of the Stark boys.)

They could execute him as a traitor for taking Winterfell and etraying Robb, true. But again, that's not the specific crime they lay at his feet; it's the boys' deaths. Then it occurred to me that they might want Theon dead BECAUSE he knows that the boys are still alive. Stannis' savior complex in the north seems to rest on gaining support by helping the northerners avenge the deaths of Ned's sons. But if he learns that the boys are still alive, they could become his pawns, his hostages for good behavior or worse, targets because he sees them as competition. Dead, they're focal points of vengeance; alive, and what do the northerners need him for?

I have speculated that the biggest reason no one has told Jon yet about the will is because of Stannis' presence on the Wall. If Stannis sees Jon as a rival, he could turn on him. Same basic principle holds true for the boys — if Stannis knows they're alive, it's a game-changer. The northmen are, I believe, turning Stannis and Bolton on each other and then taking out the weakened "victor" before reinstalling the Starks. In which case, the northerners are calling for Theon's death not because they think he killed the boys, but because he's the major wildcard who could "out" their survival to Stannis and piss in the Cheerios. And yes I know that Manderly promised Davos that he'd support Stannis if Davos brought Rickon back, but I don't see that ever being followed through.

Probably the most satisfying thing for me is going to be when the curtain falls back and the GNC is revealed fully. I'm very curious to see how widespread it really is (or isn't).

Could a reason for not notifying Jon be Catelyn's influence? Is she known to be still about if not alive? And is she a part of any of this? Just food for thought. I'm not sure a zombie would be capable of political machinatiions but everyone knows how high in asteem the North holds Ned's family.

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They may only suspect, unless one of the stupid Freys squeals. Remember, all of the northmen loyal to Robb that were in the wedding hall died there. Even Cat was killed but, she came back, she is the only survivor of Robb's faction that knows, because she saw Roose come from behind Robb and say "Jaime Lannister sends his regards" before stabbing Robb through his back and his heart.

Yeah I'm thinking at this point that other than the Freys who were present and Roose himself, UnCat is the only other person who could implicate Roose in Robb's murder. I wonder if the some of the Freys who are with Roose will rat him out, thinking it might save their own asses. Always possible.

Could a reason for not notifying Jon be Catelyn's influence? Is she known to be still about if not alive? And is she a part of any of this? Just food for thought. I'm not sure a zombie would be capable of political machinatiions but everyone knows how high in asteem the North holds Ned's family.

I think UnCat (or at least her men) is involved somehow by virtue of going into the Neck and being in possession of Robb's crown. As for her influence being a reason to not inform Jon, I don't see it. Mainly because the men all seem to be acting as if Jon is the heir — they just haven't told him that he is yet. If UnCat said, "I refuse to let it be Jon" then there wouldn't be so much subtext that it is, in fact, Jon.

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Oh, gods, please don't link my previous post in the OP as suggested reading, nenya~! There are better selections that provide more insight than my cursory review, IMO, which was written mostly to talk myself through the proposed conspiracy's key moving parts.

Lol! I disagree! I think it's a great summary, but I'll put those other links you gave me instead.

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Yeah I'm thinking at this point that other than the Freys who were present and Roose himself, UnCat is the only other person who could implicate Roose in Robb's murder. I wonder if the some of the Freys who are with Roose will rat him out, thinking it might save their own asses. Always possible.

I think UnCat (or at least her men) is involved somehow by virtue of going into the Neck and being in possession of Robb's crown. As for her influence being a reason to not inform Jon, I don't see it. Mainly because the men all seem to be acting as if Jon is the heir — they just haven't told him that he is yet. If UnCat said, "I refuse to let it be Jon" then there wouldn't be so much subtext that it is, in fact, Jon.

I have always wondered if she is a player or a political tool. After her reanimation I mean.

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Remember, all of the northmen loyal to Robb that were in the wedding hall died there....

"He[Merrett Frey] cozened the huge northman into drinking enough wine to kill any three normal men, yet after Roslin had been bedded the Greatjon still managed to snatch the sword of the first man to accost him.... It had taken eight of them to get him into chains the effort left two wounded, one dead, and poor old ser Leslyn Haigh short half an ear."

There's no way that they go to the effort to get the biggest Northman there is into chains just to kill him.

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Probably the most satisfying thing for me is going to be when the curtain falls back and the GNC is revealed fully. I'm very curious to see how widespread it really is (or isn't).

Excellent post!

If it's as big as I think it is, it will be EXHILARATING to read:)

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