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Varys poisoned Tywin Lannister (a theory)


Moon-Pale Maiden

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I've been pondering the theory that Tywin Lannister was poisoned using Widow's blood by Oberyn Martell, and I've come to a slightly different conclusion. I do believe the Tywin was poisoned with Widow's blood, but I believe that Varys (or one of his little birds) and NOT Oberyn Martell was the poisoner. I also believe that Varys intended to frame Oberyn Martell or the Tyrells for the murder, depending on which would benefit his goals better. He also had a backup plan. Here me out..

First, we read about the poison in Tyrion's trial:

Why would we recieve a complete description about this one particular poison, and not the others, if we aren't to make use of this information? We are meant to understand the mechanics of widow's blood.

On the night Tyrion has Pycelle thrown in the Black Cells, he takes several jars from Pycelle's chambers.

If Varys suspected that Tyrion had poisoned his sister, he would have realized right away that Tyrion had taken some bottles from Maester Pycelle's chambers, and would have the opportunity to blame anything that was missing on Tyrion, should it come to light. Pycelle would have blamed all of the missing bottles Tyrion, seeing his obvious opportunity. We don't know exactly when Varys (or a little bird sent by him) stole the widow's blood, but we can assume that Pycelle may not have realized until the trial.

I always thought that Tyrion did steal the widow's blood, and that that was what he "poisoned" Cersei with. The only other drug that affects the bladder is the Tears of Lys and its been described as very deadly so I doubt he used that to make Cersei constipated/have diarrhea.

This explicitly suggests that Varys' little birds are listening and would have gotten this information to Varys. If Oberyn had truly poisoned Tywin, I doubt he would have been so liberal in his conversation. Also, Oberyn knows, and admits as much, that any poisoning would sound suspiciously like the work of the Red Viper. It wouldn't be the brightest way for Oberyn to murder Tywin Lannister.

Apparently Widow's Blood works slowly. By the time Tywin was dead or had realized that he had been poisoned Oberyn(along with Tyrion and Sansa) would have been safe back in Dorne.

I don't believe that Varys expected or intended for Tyrion to kill his father, but seeing his chance to pin on another, he gave Tyrion all of the instructions. Varys knew he was going into hiding, so he wasn't worried about his own role in the poisoning. How did the poison get slipped into Tywin's drink? Why, a little bird, posing as a cup bearer.

Varys knew that the crossbow was in easy reach; he had arranged for that furniture to be placed there. Why? That was his backup plan. A small child could easily reach the crossbow, kill Tywin while he was in bed with Shae, and sneak out through the hidden door. Or, if he needed to cast blame on the Tyrells, he may have come back after leading Tyrion away, and done the deed himself. He had already planted the Highgarden coin in Rugan's cell, remember. Both Tyrion's escape and the death of Tywin Lannister could have been pinned on the Tyrells.

So Varys plan for killing Tywin hinged on a chest being placed conveniently under a crossbow? Silly, when he could have just given the kid a knife. And why risk an assassination when he knows that Tywin is a dead man anyway?

Once Tyrion went missing, Tywin would have immediately suspected Varys, and so Varys would have had to kill him or else risk the strength and force of Tywin Lannister dragging him out for an inquisition.

Tyrion knew exactly where to find his father because he knew that he himself didn't steal Widow's blood, and that Varys' little birds were listening to Oberyn's damning speech and assumed that Varys had taken it upon himself to poison Tywin and blame it on Oberyn. It was easier for Tyrion to kill his father knowing that his father was already dead.

Cersei orders a search through the tunnels for Varys yet he doesn't have her killed. I'm confident that Varys could have remained hidden if he chose to. I don't think Tyrion would suspect his father poisoned because he knew that Varys overheard a conversation, it would make more sense for him to think so after believing that Oberyn had his father poisoned. And since Oberyn had been dead for some time and his father was still alive it's easy to deduce then which type of poison he used to kill him, especially given Tyrion's experience with widow's blood. Also, if Varys' plan was to poison Tywin why would he use a poison that took so long to take effect?

Ser Kevan's death is described in almost the exact same wording as Tywin's. Further reinforcing the idea that this was Varys' plan all along.

...and using the exact same weapon.

We hear the rationale for Kevan's death, but wouldn't the same rational be used for Tywin's death since he also was in the process of reconciling the kingdom under Lannister and Tyrell rule?

Surely Varys had the means, the motive and certainly the opportunity to kill Tywin Lannister, and his death, whether by poison or by crossbow was already in the works before Tyrion got there. Tyrion just made everything that much easier for Varys.

Kevan and Tywin's deaths were so similar on purpose, he wanted to implicate Tyrion in the crime to make Cersei all the more paranoid. And if Varys wanted to kill Tywin why wait until until after all the efforts Tywin took to stabalize the realm had taken place?(RW, Joffrey's wedding, Tommen's impending wedding?)

Your theory does make sense, but there are far too many flaws in it to make me think it concrete.

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While I'm unsure who poisoned Tywin or if he was even poisoned (though the theories make compelling arguements that he was), mr. Mountain died long after Oberyn's death and Tywin's death I think. In other words, mr. Viper had some pretty hefty poisons which dragged death out for a good long while. So why would it be possible that Oberyn could develop a poison which dragged Gregor's death out for like weeks but not for Tywin?

The question is more what opportunities the Viper had to poison Tywin to begin with. Which actually makes it more compelling that Varys was the one as Varys had access to the entire Red Keep at his leisure.

But what's important to note is that the effects of Gregor's slow acting poison had already expressed themselves almost immediately after Oberyn's death. Yes, it drew out his death, but the fact that he was poisoned was obvious from nearly the moment the poison entered him. By contrast, Tywin showed no signs of poisoning until much later. It would mean that the poison was lying "dormant" for a week if Oberyn did it, which seems a little ridiculous.

First off this is the Red Viper's plan, not Doran's. Doran was banking everything on Dany as we later found out. Doran was against Oberyn going to KL from the get go IIRC.

I would not be so sure Doran's actually playing this for Dany. I'm not convinced Quentyn was supposed to succeed exactly. And we know from Doran that he and Oberyn were always of the same mind in terms of political endgame, only that the brothers express it much differently.

Secondly this contradicts with Oberyn's conversation with Tyrion. Oberyn wanted vengeance and had waited long enough. Why he decided to go now is not entirely clear to me, but maybe he figured, with the realm in chaos through the war, he had a better chance at killing Elia's murderers at that point in time.

Oberyn blamed Tywin for ordering the murder of Elia and her children even though Tyrion denied it or rather sidestepped it. Seems uncharacteristic for Oberyn to ignore Tywin and play some subtle mind game which could take years to come to fruition while he could off Tywin a lot quicker. That is actually something Doran would do (if he ever got round to it) but not Oberyn.

Doran wouldn't just assassinate Tywin like that either-- it's exactly Doran's MO to let his enemies fight each other. What I stated isn't contradicting Oberyn's conversation with Tyrion, because Oberyn said what I paraphrased-- yes, he wanted vengeance, but he wanted to destroy House Lannister as both vengeance and political maneuvering, which is better done through civil war than a bowel obstruction long after Oberyn is dead. Oberyn wanted death to Gregor, but he wanted something that would cut Tywin deeper than death, and would also serve to further their political goals more deeply. Getting rid of Tywin simply does not also remove the threat of the Lannister army (which can be still commanded by Cersei and/or Kevan), but instigating Lannister civil war absolutely does.

Finally, considering Doran's intervention in Arianne's plans I'm inclined to believe Doran never sought to play the Lannisters out that way. He was always gunning for the remaining Targs IMO, especially considering his one-time letter to Ser William Darry.

I think the idea to crown Myrcella was a moot point once Tywin died, so Doran would intervene when Arianne attempted this, as the plan had to change. There's no more way to create Lannister in-fighting without Tywin, so why crown her at that point?

I'm not so certain Doran is exactly pro-Targ. If Rhaegar's stunt didn't cause the Martell's insult enough, then the fact that Aerys held Elia and the babies hostage, which led to their deaths, is probably sufficient reason for Dorne to want revenge on the Targs. I actually think the Quentyn-Dany thing was not what it seems, and I suspect Doran knows Aegon is actually a Blackfyre. I think Doran might be looking to back Aegon specifically because he's not actually a Targ as another plan for vengeance against a family that wronged his family.

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But what's important to note is that the effects of Gregor's slow acting poison had already expressed themselves almost immediately after Oberyn's death. Yes, it drew out his death, but the fact that he was poisoned was obvious from nearly the moment the poison entered him. By contrast, Tywin showed no signs of poisoning until much later. It would mean that the poison was lying "dormant" for a week if Oberyn did it, which seems a little ridiculous.

I've seen discussions on poison before around here and a few people commented that such a slow effective and lethal poisoning is unrealistic at any rate. The only case I personally know of is the conspiracy theory that Napoleon was assassinated through lead poisoning which took at least a year or more before he died (and yes he was ill in that time). However the theory holds he was administered small dosis' daily for it to take effect.

Oberyn however was said to be a master poisoner and considering ASOFAI is a fantasy setting...

But you're right in the respect that Tywin didn't seem (or rather, we don't read it) to show signs of poisoning for some time after Oberyn's death. While Gregor did. It makes me hesitant to commit to any poison theory as well, anything's possible and compelling arguements can be made for both sides of the arguement.

I would not be so sure Doran's actually playing this for Dany. I'm not convinced Quentyn was supposed to succeed exactly.

That would blow my mind. Why send a letter to Ser William Darry if Doran never really believed in any Targ? Why send Quentyn out on a dangerous covert mission to a warzone if he had no faith in Dany? Or did Doran bank solely on Dany's dragons you think? At any rate if Quentyn was meant as a decoy who was Doran trying to fool? Was Quentyn that expendible to him? If what you say is true I'm starting to think less and less of Doran as a "good" player. But honestly I'm still thinking Doran wanted a Targ and a dragon.

And we know from Doran that he and Oberyn were always of the same mind in terms of political endgame, only that the brothers express it much differently.

Oberyn defying Doran and going to KL doesn't sound like they were disagreeing on nuances but disagreeing on a fundamental level on strategy.

Oberyn wanted death to Gregor, but he wanted something that would cut Tywin deeper than death, and would also serve to further their political goals more deeply.

Judging from Oberyn's words and the initial sentiment of the Sand Snakes I get the opposite vibe, but I concede you could be right. Maybe we'll never know unless the author makes a statement on this subject.

I think the idea to crown Myrcella was a moot point once Tywin died, so Doran would intervene when Arianne attempted this, as the plan had to change.

and I suspect Doran knows Aegon is actually a Blackfyre. I think Doran might be looking to back Aegon specifically because he's not actually a Targ as another plan for vengeance against a family that wronged his family.

Again we don't see any of that reasoning, we only see cautious Doran worried about what the IT would do before Dorne was ready. He sent his son on a suicide mission to Mereen to retreave Dany and/or a dragon. Then he starts further planning disrupting Lannister rule through the Sand Snakes. That's all we know for now, though I haven't read the Arianne WoW chapter in detail.

Like to add one more thing. If Doran knew Aegon is a Blackfyre, than Martin's comment that both Varys and Illyrio did not know of Doran's letter to Ser William Darry is peculiar. If Doran knew all about Aegon, why doesn't he trust Varys or be in constant contact with Illyrio, and actively working with them in an alliance?

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I like this theory, but I don't believe it for three reasons:

1) Oberyn is not only a vengeful character, he is also a smart guy.

He came to King's Landing for only ONE reason, specifically vengeance: once he knew that Lorch was dead, the only guys alive in his hit list were Tywin and Gregor Clegane.

While he had all reasons to give up his life (not that he wanted, but he was prepared to... otherwise he wouldn't have got into the duel), he had to be absolutely sure that the culprits would have died.

The real reason he poisoned the spear wasn't just to kill Gregor, it was to be sure that Gregor would have died despite the result of the duel.

Imagine to be Oberyn: Lorch is dead, you are going to duel against Gregor and may lose your life in the process.

If you simply die, there's no way that Tywin will meet his justice.

You don't let your revenge go half-way like that.

It would be like throwing your life on the line on a whim, without having even prepared yourself for your long term goal.

Quite stupid for Oberyn, considering that he waited YEARS for his revenge.

Oberyn locked his targets and made sure that Tywin would die (hence the poisoning), THEN he grabbed the first opportunity to kill Gregor as well (hence the duel). Since there was no 100% probability to kill Gregor out right, he also poisoned his weapon.

2) Varys wanted Tywin dead and we all agree, I think.

He has so many reasons behind that and there's no need to point them all out.

Stiil, if he had poisoned Tywin there wouldn't have been any reason to kill him twice.

-Varys poisons Tywin and he simply dies?

Death by natural causes, or if someone suspicts something fishy, the culprit is going to be the Red Viper, known for his trickeries and hostility towards Tywin.

Oberyn dies before Tywin?

There's still a pretty reasonable chance the make Oberyn the culprit, that kind of venom acts during a long span of time.

-Varys kills Tywin by Tyrion, without using any poison?

There's no need to use poison as well.

You already have a scapegoat, and even if he fails you still can kill your target with another method later.

There's simply no need to kill the same guy twice, especially considering the fact that Varys planned it so carefully: the route, the weapons ready in the room, the presence of Shae after all those stories about Hands of the King whoring, the fact that Varys 'helped' Tyrion to escape right before the execution so that he has no time to think...

Why did he have to plan this much if he already knew that his enemy was surely going to die?

3) Varys isn't allknowing.

He doesn't know about Jon Snow real parents, nor about Arya's whereabouts, not about Littlefinger's exact plan and so on.

He may have heard that Oberyn had bad intentions, but he couldn't know if he already had poisoned Tywin.

Not after Oberyn died, of course.

Varys may have known his intention, but not if and when the Red Viper had already done it.

He may suspect Oberyn to have acted, but he is not sure.

Still, Tywin must die and so he uses Tyrion.

It's more of a case of overkilling a guy because the eunuch didn't know/wasn't sure about Oberyn's due, so he sent Tyrion to do his job.

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This is great, Moon Pale Maiden, and I also think Twyin was poisoned. I think it was probably Varys, as you say, but I think some of the motivation you mention might be off.

For one thing, one reason I didn't fully buy the Oberyn theory is because Oberyn is dead significantly before Tywin's murder-- Tyrion spends quite a good bit of time in between the Oberyn-Gregor trial and his escape. That being said, the timing doesn't add up for Varys to put the blame of Oberyn for this either.

I actually posit that Varys intended for Tyrion to kill Tywin since at least aCoK, Tyrion 12. This is the chapter Varys brings Shae to Tyrion's room in the tower of the Hand; Shae reports that at one point her blindfold slipped, revealing the dragon mosaic-- the same mosaic Tyrion sees when Varys "rescues" him that compells him to go confront his father, where lo and behold Shae is also positioned. I think Varys orchestrated the whole thing, from timing it so that Jaime "forced" him to rescue Tywin, to the placement of Shae, the crossbow (conveniently above a footstool) and the fact that Tywin was in the bathroom-- all of these factors = dead Tywin. Varys always knew that Tywin would be taking up residence at the Tower after the war, that Tywin was probably the Hand who had a secret taste for whores, and I think this was in motion for a very long time-- that Tyrion was blamed for Joff's murder happened to align with Varys' plans. Varys' testimony at the trial helped cement Tyrion's guilt and ensured his confinement in the cells.

I think Varys needed to eliminate Tywin to crush a significant threat to his Aegon plan, as well as turn the Lannisters against each other such that Tyrion could be of use to him in Essos-- I think Varys wanted Tyrion to be a counselor for Aegon, and had always planned on spiriting him away, but knew Tyrion wouldn't without a significant confrontation with his father.

But I agree with your conclusions generally.

Very interesting! Your theory also makes a lot of sense. Hmmm... more to ponder, more to ponder. The only thing I hesitate on, is Varys doesn't seem like he leaves anything to chance. He would taking a huge risk to set up everything in order to inspire Tyrion to kill his father, only to have Tyrion back out, or screw something up at the last minute. Even if Varys did set this up as part of his plan, I think he would have had back-up plans installed in case Tyrion failed. Actually, if _anything_ had gone wrong, it would have meant both Tyrion's and Varys' head, and I don't think Varys trusts all those variables. But I definitely agree that it was in Varys' best interest to get rid of Tywin and he had a hand in this somehow.

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LF sucks

Scip, I don't have enough time to elaborate now, so I'll answer this later. But I should back up and clarify something. I suspect that the Martell endgame is not Targ-centric, in that I'm very suspicious of Quentyn's dragon hunt and the marriage contract with Darry. My "main" theory is that the Martells are not looking for Targ restoration, but something else. From there, I thought of 3 possibilities:

1. While the Martells would not support a Targ, they would support Elia's child, Aegon, so they may wish to raise Aegon as Elia's son, believing he's who he's supposed to be; 2. Doran knows about the Blackfyre identity (all that needs to happen for this to be uncovered is for Doran to mention the cheesemonger, and some of this becomes exposed). Given that the Martells have fairly good reason to be anti-Targ, the fact that Aegon is Blackfyre could motivate them to put him on the throne;

3. The Martells are in this for the Martells; they plan to either secede from the union, or to rule in their own name.

Something else is going on with the Martells that isn't what it seems. For example, Melliara (Doran's wife) allegedly went back to Norvos because she disapproved of sending Quentyn to be fostered. This makes no sense whatsoever given that by going to Norvos she would subsequently see none of her children. I've played with the notion that she left because she knew Doran planned to send him on a suicide mission, possibly to remove him as a heir for some bigger purpose. But generally, I think there's a lot of seemingly contradictory things going on with the Dorne plot; I'm not super confident to posit a full theory yet, but I feel pretty certain that Targ restoration isn't what they're after.

Very interesting! Your theory also makes a lot of sense. Hmmm... more to ponder, more to ponder. The only thing I hesitate on, is Varys doesn't seem like he leaves anything to chance. He would taking a huge risk to set up everything in order to inspire Tyrion to kill his father, only to have Tyrion back out, or screw something up at the last minute. Even if Varys did set this up as part of his plan, I think he would have had back-up plans installed in case Tyrion failed. Actually, if _anything_ had gone wrong, it would have meant both Tyrion's and Varys' head, and I don't think Varys trusts all those variables. But I definitely agree that it was in Varys' best interest to get rid of Tywin and he had a hand in this somehow.

Oh, I think the issue is that Varys needed Tyrion to break from his family psychologically in order to be of use in Varys' bigger plot. I think Varys built in a number of safeties to ensure that Tyrion would hate his father and to have Tywin dead even if it didn't work as seamlessly as it did with Jaime's confession. For instance, he knew Tyrion was obsessed with the secret passage into the Hand's chambers, and had carefully orchestrated clues that would spark Tyrion's interest. From there, seeing Shae in his father's bed-- the same father who had Tyrion force a "prostitute" and threatened to hang Shae if he found Tyrion with any more prostitutes. This would probably be enough to induce a psychological break in Tyrion, even if Tyrion didn't follow through on actually killing Tywin. Varys could have easily killed Tywin after all of this if Tyrion chose not to kill him-- he could have shot him later on the privy, or slid through the secret passage and done what he did with Kevan; in all likelihood, Tyrion would have been blamed anyway given that he escapes immediately afterward.

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I don't know, Oberyn seemed pretty sure of things when he was speaking with Tyrion. The man had a plan, and that plan was to leave King's Landing with Tyrion in tow, and give Myrcella a crown. Assuming he survived killing Gregor though, his work is only half done. He wanted Tywin's head too. Everything from his idea to enticing Cersei with Dornish succession to bringing Tyrion with him to Dorne hinges on Tywin being dead.

I don't buy that Varys overheard the conversation and then poisoned Tywin because he could frame a guy who'd be walking into a life or death situation that he may not walk away from. The idea that Oberyn wouldn't use poison just because that's what would be expected of him is precisely why Widow's Blood was used. It's slow-acting. Tywin was already a dead man walking, and his insufferable pride would ensure that no one would know about his condition until he keeled over. In the meantime, Oberyn's ideal plan was to free Tyrion, collect Sansa from whatever hiding hole he had her in, and then book it with them to Dorne, where he'd have the rightful heir to Casterly Rock (also innocent in the eyes of gods and men), the heir to Winterfell (at least as everyone knew), and a queen in Myrcella. Tywin would die with them far out of reach (everyone would know and suspect Oberyn of course, but he'd just shrug his shoulders and they'd go "Oh that rascally Red Viper! He is incorrigible!").

Naturally Gregor Clegane represented a huge obstacle to that plan (rather literally), so why wouldn't Oberyn go into that fight with his main motivation of revenge at least partially complete by poisoning Tywin first? It would turn the situation into a (relative anyway) win-win.

We know that Doran was plotting to destroy Tywin and all his works, and Oberyn's plan in King's Landing fit that criteria. Kill Gregor, kill Tywin, back the monster son that Tywin always hated to inherit the West, flaunt the rest of the Seven Kingdoms' laws of succession by backing Myrcella, and then use the political force of the North, West, and Dorne to make it happen. As well, it accomplishes another one of Dorne's primary objectives, have a Martell on the throne, as Myrcella was betrothed to Trystane.

Another fun line from Doran. "We princes make our careful plans and the gods smash them all awry." (plural princes and plans) Oberyn's moves in King's Landing were yet another one of those plans, and the next logical alternative to their goals with Viserys dead, and Dany taken, then missing. Sending Quentyn off to Meereen was plan C after Oberyn failed to secure the necessary leverage to make Myrcella a real contender, and they received news of what happened in that part of the world.

So really, why wouldn't Oberyn be the poisoner in the event that Tywin was indeed poisoned and not just having a really bad case of smelly-corpse/pre-death constipation? We know he had the means, the motive and opportunity. What's more, the poison was slow-acting, and would be an insurance policy to ensure his revenge even if he lost to Clegane. He and Doran had loads of plans for what would go on -after- Tywin's death, and time would be of the essence after freeing Tyrion (as there's no way Cersei would take the embarrassment laying down. Tyrion's minutes in King's Landing would be numbered. They'd have to leave as quickly as possible.) Oberyn's plan to take Tyrion to Dorne means that he'd have to ensure Tywin's death -before- freeing him. Even assuming Tyrion would last a minute loitering around the city, Oberyn's access to Tywin would be -quickly- shut off with the snub of killing Tywin's dog, securing a confession for what happened with Ellia, and fighting for the supposed murderer of Joffrey. It would be a diplomatic nightmare, and everyone far more on guard.

So, Oberyn fits for means, motive, opportunity, and not only does his time-frame scream for a preemptive poisoning, but it also ensures that if he dies to Gregor, he still gets Tywin in the end. He could be smug about it with Tyrion for the simple reason that before anyone would even know Tywin had been poisoned, he, Tyrion, and (in his hopes, Sansa) would be halfway to Dorne.

This is very well thought-out counter argument. Thanks for the insightful post; you make many good points which I will have to review carefully and ponder further.

My immediate thought, however, was when did Oberyn find out about Tyrion's decision to try for a Trial by Battle? Oberyn must have known that Tywin was prepared to offer Tyrion the Wall for a confession. Almost no one expected Tyrion to try for TbB, so Oberyn couldn't have truly taken this into account. As you say, the poison was slow-acting, he would have had to poison Tywin days before he even knew he'd have a chance to fight the Mountain.

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Setting Tywin and Cersei up against each other is just plain awful for a plan. Tywin is a giant, a mammoth, a living legend in his house. When he says jump, everyone asks "How high? And please don't kill my family!" Cersei on her own has no power in House Lannister. Not only is she a woman, but she's not the head of the house, nor does she have any authority deriving from anything but the crown, and the instant she goes against her house's interests, she loses even that. She has no swords, nor ability to stir up trouble so long as Tywin is alive. Unless she manages to get more Kettleblacks via sleeping with them, she's useless as even a very loud distraction.

We know already that Oberyn didn't trust Cersei in the least. I think his inquiry to see if Cersei would be willing to join Myrcella's cause was indeed a serious one, but it was as a backup in case they couldn't get Tyrion. Oberyn already didn't think getting into bed with Cersei was a reliable choice, but he was in King's Landing on a mission, and had to look at everything. Also, inquiring about Cersei was another sign he was planning on having Tywin die, as if Tyrion was lost, Cersei's the only direct child left able to inherit. With Tywin alive he couldn't create a succession crisis, same with Tyrion, it would just go to him by default, only with both of them out of the way could Cersei have a reasonable chance against her cousins for power. Tyrion fits their plan perfectly in the meantime. If they want a Martell on the throne, they need multiple houses supporting them, and why not? It -would- destroy Tywin and his works to have them inherited by the monster son he always hated. And it would send him spinning in his grave to put a Martell on the throne with his granddaughter, and heck, that aside it was a backup plan to begin with with Viserys dead.

I do think that for a time Doran planned to crown Myrcella. When Viserys died, Dany was also missing until her journey to Qarth, and as far as anyone knew of Dothraki custom, the instant Khal Drogo died, that was the end of her as well (if he didn't die, she was still married to him, and useless to them regardless on that front). It wasn't until A Feast for Crows that real concrete information about what happened at Astapor and Meereen began to trickle into the Seven Kingdoms. Which coincidentally is when Quentyn was sent off. The Martells have no obligation to the Targeryens. Rhaegar spurned and dishonored Ellia before the entire realm, and Aerys held her and the children as hostages, which led to their deaths. They just want a Martell on the throne, so they can restore the house's honor and state of importance in the realm. Tywin thought he won in the end with Ellia dead and Cersei on the throne with Robert. They're looking to change that. The only reason Doran never crowned Myrcella was because Oberyn couldn't finish the job and bring in the political support needed.

Next, Widow's Blood. We don't know on the exact time-frame of its ability to kill. If Tyrion used a non-murdering pinch of it to keep Cersei out of action, it may not have the same effects as a lethal dose. Or even if the effects were immediate on Tywin, he's the type of guy that will get stabbed in the chest and put on a red shirt to hide the blood. Everything in Tyrion's trial did occur in a relatively short time-frame, and one doesn't just die of constipation over night. Tywin may have been feeling ill, and unable to crap gold, but he still had a job to do, and his number one goal in life was to project himself and his house as being strong, controlled, and in command. He wasn't going to take a sick day, he was going to get out there and Tywin it up. Just look at the scene where he died. That's a guy who would wonder for a second if he was poisoned and go "Poisoned? Me? Yeah right. If there is any poison in my system, it had better get the hell out if it knows what's good for it. I'll render everything used to make it extinct. People will speak of this poison only in hushed whispers! Just you wait..."

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Lord Pissant is basically a glorified shit shoveler, and is most likely responsible for Jon's stabbing via his fellow pomegranate enthusiast lover, Bowen Marsh

Yea, I'm not sure if that's it exactly either. I recently did a few Dorne rereads (including Oberyn's parts from aSoS), and I'm still confused, lol. I might put together an OP on this when I understand it a bit better (I think we have a LOT of pieces missing).

But on topic, I think there's a really good chance Oberyn planned to get rid of Jof (his wedding gift to the boy was even a scorpion brooch), but he didn't poison Tywin.

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Widow's Blood was used by Tyrion; it was dropped into Cersei's wine during dinner and the next day she was stuck to the privy. It is fast acting. Yet, at least a few days go by between the trial and Tyrion's escape. During these few days we see Tywin conducting business not on the privy, and they are all already aware of the slow-acting poison on Gregor. If Tywin was also poisoned by Oberyn, it would seem that the effects would be revealing themselves well before the night Tywin is on the loo. I don't think Varys was trying to frame Oberyn either-- I think the poison wasn't supposed to kill Tywin, but rather facilitate Tyrion's escape attempt/ remove Tywin as a liability to Aegon.

Oberyn didn't want to kill Tywin. In Tyrion X aSoS he pretty much tells Tyrion exactly what he wanted to happen: crown Myrcella so that Cersei would champion her cause, while Tywin would likely support Tommen. I think it's more likely that the Martells had planned for Joff to have an "accident" in order to enable a war of succession between Lannisters than to kill Tywin directly. They want Cersei and Tywin to split resources and wear themselves out in-fighting, which doesn't happen if Tywin is simply assassinated.

That's interesting.. I never thought that Tyrion used Widow's blood on his sister. I always assumed she had the "runs", not the "stops" hehe. But that's something to think about..

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Yea, I'm not sure if that's it exactly either. I recently did a few Dorne rereads (including Oberyn's parts from aSoS), and I'm still confused, lol. I might put together an OP on this when I understand it a bit better (I think we have a LOT of pieces missing).

But on topic, I think there's a really good chance Oberyn planned to get rid of Jof (his wedding gift to the boy was even a scorpion brooch), but he didn't poison Tywin.

Next up: LF kidnapped Lyanna and caused Bob's rebellion. LF disguised himself as Varys, stole a bunch of his little birds and murdered Pycelle and Kevan. LF is also secretly the Yellow Whale in Mereen, trolling Tyrion by getting him to whipe his bottom. :P

As for the Dornish angle, yeah maybe a closer look needs to be given to Dorne's actions by this forum.

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Alright, looking it up (oddly, there's very little information on the internet about how long you'd have to be constipated before you're poisoned by your own body's refuse), the timeframe for a death by Widow's Blood is in the weeks and months (months in the case that it doesn't do anything to accelerate the process, and the poison just somehow heavily damages your bowels to prevent it). Still, I'd lean on the end of a few weeks, as there's no way a poison that wrecks your bowels beyond repair wouldn't leave you more susceptible to infection and the like.

In any case, Tywin, if he was poisoned, was damned to die a bloated, crap-filled monstrosity. That is some pretty heavy revenge.

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That's interesting.. I never thought that Tyrion used Widow's blood on his sister. I always assumed she had the "runs", not the "stops" hehe. But that's something to think about..

Yea, Cersei did have the runs, but I for some reason thought different doses could produce different effects. Tyrion might not have used the Widow's Blood on Cersei, but something else. From aCoK, Tyrion 4: "And such interesting things. He noted sweetsleep and nightshade, milk of the poppy, the tears of Lys, powdered greycap, wolfsbane and demon’s dance, basilisk venom, blindeye, widow’s blood . . . Standing on his toes and straining upward, he managed to pull a small dusty bottle off the high shelf. When he read the label, he smiled and slipped it up his sleeve."

It seems he collected the rest of the listed poisons later (at the end of Tyrion 6 during the Pycelle shave; he poisons Cersei at the beginning of Tyrion 6); the other poisons are the ones named again during the trial at which Pycelle elaborates on what Window's Blood does. From the phrasing of the above quote it seems Tyrion used an as-yet unspecified poison on Cersei, while I do believe Tywin got the Widow's Blood.

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Moon Pale Maiden you have Ninja'd me. I had been working on a similar post that I was going to put in the Tyrion reread thread basically along these same lines. I was getting the quotes together when I saw this OP. I completely believe not only that Varys was the one to poison Tywin, not Oberyn, but that he manipulated Tyrion into setting up the whole scene to kill Tywin in the first place. Of course Varys could not have known that Jaime would spill the beans to Tyrion about Tysha truly being a crofters daughter, but he most definitely was listening to that conversation. Then he deliberately takes Tyrion on a path where Tyrion notices the dragon mosaic on the floor and the ladder, as you pointed out in the OP. Varys knew that Shae had told Tyrion that this was how she got to his room in the red keep, which became Tywin's room, when Varys brought Shae to Tyrion in his chamber. I believe he wanted Tyrion to go up there and finish the job he had started with the poisoning. I also don't believe it was Oberyn because that is too discreet for Oberyn who was looking for explicit verbal confirmation that Tywin gave the order to Gregor to rape and murder Elia. Oberyn operates more openly, for example with his duel with Lord Yronwood.

I also had the same thought as you as soon as I read the Epilogue of ADWD when Kevan is killed, that Varys would have wanted Tywin dead for the same reason. Also, another little hint comes from all the way back in AGOT. When Ned is looking into how Jon Arryn died and he suspects poison he mentions this to Pycelle. They say how poison is a woman's weapon (which was the case with Jon who was poisoned by Lysa) or a Eunuch's. Pycelle then tells Ned that Varys is a Eunuch. Totally agree with you and congrats on laying this post out so well.

edited for spelling.

ETA, after reading through all the comments I also wanted to say that I agree with Butterbumps.

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Next up: LF kidnapped Lyanna and caused Bob's rebellion. LF disguised himself as Varys, stole a bunch of his little birds and murdered Pycelle and Kevan. LF is also secretly the Yellow Whale in Mereen, trolling Tyrion by getting him to whipe his bottom. :P

As for the Dornish angle, yeah maybe a closer look needs to be given to Dorne's actions by this forum.

Actually, I have a strong feeling that LF was behind Jaime's attack on Ned and his men after they leave the brothel but that's probably for another thread. :-)
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Another possibility is that Varys planned to kill Tywin with the crossbow while he was in flagrante delicto with Shae with the intention that Tyrion would take the blame, but seeing that Tyrion was keen, Varys just altered his plan and allowed the son to kill the father?

However judging by the state of Tywin's corpse poisoning was probably involved somewhere along the line.

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Yea, Cersei did have the runs, but I for some reason thought different doses could produce different effects. Tyrion might not have used the Widow's Blood on Cersei, but something else. From aCoK, Tyrion 4: "And such interesting things. He noted sweetsleep and nightshade, milk of the poppy, the tears of Lys, powdered greycap, wolfsbane and demon’s dance, basilisk venom, blindeye, widow’s blood . . . Standing on his toes and straining upward, he managed to pull a small dusty bottle off the high shelf. When he read the label, he smiled and slipped it up his sleeve."

It seems he collected the rest of the listed poisons later (at the end of Tyrion 6 during the Pycelle shave; he poisons Cersei at the beginning of Tyrion 6); the other poisons are the ones named again during the trial at which Pycelle elaborates on what Window's Blood does. From the phrasing of the above quote it seems Tyrion used an as-yet unspecified poison on Cersei, while I do believe Tywin got the Widow's Blood.

Excellent - thank you for bringing this up and finding those quotes. I agree with you 100%. The wording suggests it's not any of the above potions. And a few them are RL herbs (a hobby of mine), such as wolfsbane, nightshade and milk of the poppy (opium). None of those would affect the mechanism of the bowels in that way. I truly believe that the substances used on Cersei and Tywin were different.

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