Varys poisoned Tywin Lannister (a theory)

[Moon-Pale Maiden]

Moon Pale Maiden you have Ninja'd me. I had been working on a similar post that I was going to put in the Tyrion reread thread basically along these same lines. I was getting the quotes together when I saw this OP. I completely believe not only that Varys was the one to poison Tywin, not Oberyn, but that he manipulated Tyrion into setting up the whole scene to kill Tywin in the first place. Of course Varys could not have known that Jaime would spill the beans to Tyrion about Tysha truly being a crofters daughter, but he most definitely was listening to that conversation. Then he deliberately takes Tyrion on a path where Tyrion notices the dragon mosaic on the floor and the ladder, as you pointed out in the OP. Varys knew that Shae had told Tyrion that this was how she got to his room in the red keep, which became Tywin's room, when Varys brought Shae to Tyrion in his chamber. I believe he wanted Tyrion to go up there and finish the job he had started with the poisoning. I also don't believe it was Oberyn because that is too discreet for Oberyn who was looking for explicit verbal confirmation that Tywin gave the order to Gregor to rape and murder Elia. Oberyn operates more openly, for example with his duel with Lord Yronwood.

I also had the same thought as you as soon as I read the Epilogue of ADWD when Kevan is killed, that Varys would have wanted Tywin dead for the same reason. Also, another little hint comes from all the way back in AGOT. When Ned is looking into how Jon Arryn died and he suspects poison he mentions this to Pycelle. They say how poison is a woman's weapon (which was the case with Jon who was poisoned by Lysa) or a Eunuch's. Pycelle then tells Ned that Varys is a Eunuch. Totally agree with you and congrats on laying this post out so well.

edited for spelling.

ETA, after reading through all the comments I also wanted to say that I agree with Butterbumps.

Elba, thank you for adding some great points to the discussion! No Ninja intended - theories belong to everyone, regardless of who starts them or who posts first - they are born, they grow, they change.. that's the beauty of this forum. By the time this thread is done, it will be filled with insights that will bolster or challenge the theory, but in the end, ideas are always made better when shared by many brains. I had totally forgotten about that quote in GoT, where Pycelle had called poison a Eunich's weapon.. that was a great catch!

[Cinder Stark]

I like this theory, but I don't believe it for three reasons:

1) Oberyn is not only a vengeful character, he is also a smart guy.

He came to King's Landing for only ONE reason, specifically vengeance: once he knew that Lorch was dead, the only guys alive in his hit list were Tywin and Gregor Clegane.

While he had all reasons to give up his life (not that he wanted, but he was prepared to... otherwise he wouldn't have got into the duel), he had to be absolutely sure that the culprits would have died.

The real reason he poisoned the spear wasn't just to kill Gregor, it was to be sure that Gregor would have died despite the result of the duel.

Imagine to be Oberyn: Lorch is dead, you are going to duel against Gregor and may lose your life in the process.

If you simply die, there's no way that Tywin will meet his justice.

You don't let your revenge go half-way like that.

It would be like throwing your life on the line on a whim, without having even prepared yourself for your long term goal.

Quite stupid for Oberyn, considering that he waited YEARS for his revenge.

Oberyn locked his targets and made sure that Tywin would die (hence the poisoning), THEN he grabbed the first opportunity to kill Gregor as well (hence the duel). Since there was no 100% probability to kill Gregor out right, he also poisoned his weapon.

2) Varys wanted Tywin dead and we all agree, I think.

He has so many reasons behind that and there's no need to point them all out.

Stiil, if he had poisoned Tywin there wouldn't have been any reason to kill him twice.

-Varys poisons Tywin and he simply dies?

Death by natural causes, or if someone suspicts something fishy, the culprit is going to be the Red Viper, known for his trickeries and hostility towards Tywin.

Oberyn dies before Tywin?

There's still a pretty reasonable chance the make Oberyn the culprit, that kind of venom acts during a long span of time.

-Varys kills Tywin by Tyrion, without using any poison?

There's no need to use poison as well.

You already have a scapegoat, and even if he fails you still can kill your target with another method later.

There's simply no need to kill the same guy twice, especially considering the fact that Varys planned it so carefully: the route, the weapons ready in the room, the presence of Shae after all those stories about Hands of the King whoring, the fact that Varys 'helped' Tyrion to escape right before the execution so that he has no time to think...

Why did he have to plan this much if he already knew that his enemy was surely going to die?

3) Varys isn't allknowing.

He doesn't know about Jon Snow real parents, nor about Arya's whereabouts, not about Littlefinger's exact plan and so on.

He may have heard that Oberyn had bad intentions, but he couldn't know if he already had poisoned Tywin.

Not after Oberyn died, of course.

Varys may have known his intention, but not if and when the Red Viper had already done it.

He may suspect Oberyn to have acted, but he is not sure.

Still, Tywin must die and so he uses Tyrion.

It's more of a case of overkilling a guy because the eunuch didn't know/wasn't sure about Oberyn's due, so he sent Tyrion to do his job.

Cheers, completely agree!!!!😊 Red Viper put a lot of poison in the mountains body before he was killed during their dual and the mountain was given to the care of that weird cersie guy(can't remember his name) who dabbles in some freaky stuff!! Who knows what he did, along with the poison, very bad situation for the mountain!!

Red Viper def poisoned tywin before dualing the mountain. Tywin was a dead man walking...

[No one Stark]

1) Just because Tyrion warns Oberyn that Vary's birds could be listening DOESN'T prove they are. Tyrion is most likely paranoid.

2) I believe that Oberyn knew that he was most likely going to die in his duel against Gregor hence poisoning his blade and toying with Gregor.. because his main goal was to expose Gregor as murdering Elia not simply kill him..he even says 'if you don't admit you killed her i'll chase you through all seven hells'. He wanted Gregor to suffer.

3) It's very likely that Varys didn't plan to leave King's Landing, but after finding out Tyrion murdered his father he was left with no choice. Remember he was forced by Jaime to free Tyrion and create an escape on short notice.

4) Your reasoning for Varys putting the chest under the crossbow doesn't make sense. He could've easily given a child a dagger to kill Tywin which also makes a lot more sense than giving a crossbow to a child.

It makes a lot more sense to me that Oberyn poisoned Tywin, but it's possible Varys did.

[Amanda Lannister]

Cheers, completely agree!!!!�� Red Viper put a lot of poison in the mountains body before he was killed during their dual and the mountain was given to the care of that weird cersie guy(can't remember his name) who dabbles in some freaky stuff!! Who knows what he did, along with the poison, very bad situation for the mountain!!

Qyburn! What a piece of work that one is :ack:

[The Broke Howard Hughes]

Darn. Now you had to go and wreck all the theories I've made in my head with all your proof and attention to detail. Nice work spoil sport! :bang:

[Moon-Pale Maiden]

4) Your reasoning for Varys putting the chest under the crossbow doesn't make sense. He could've easily given a child a dagger to kill Tywin which also makes a lot more sense than giving a crossbow to a child.

I believe that Tywin could have easily overpowered a child with a dagger. A crossbow was already used by Tyrion, who is a short person (like a child), which proves a child could operate one. The crossbow would be the only weapon, in my opinion, that a child could hope to kill Tywin with. The poison was his original plan and was carried out. I believe that the crossbow situation was set up after he was forced by Jaime to participate in Tyrion's escape. It allowed Varys to instead pair Tyrion's escape with the killing of Tywin, an even BETTER set up than just the poisoning. It also removed the strength and force of Tywin from coming after him after the escape. Cersei is an idiot. But Tywin knew right away that it was Varys who helped Tyrion escape. Varys is an opportunist and doesn't leave strings hanging.

[Waylin Stark]

I really liked this theory, and would have believed it if I wasn't a believer in the 'Oberyn poisoned Tywin' theory. I think that has more merit.

I believe that Oberyn wasn't satisfied with killing Gregor, he wanted the man who gave the orders to Gregor to kill Elia.

There's also the fact that Oberyn uses poisons, and was dining with Tywin before everything went to hell.

Also by Tyrion knowing where he would find Tywin, it's heavily implied that Oberyn did do the deed.

Varys killing Tywin would have been too early in Varys's plan to break the Lannister-Tyrell alliance.

Killing Tywin so early would've given more time for other factions to gain power and replace Tywin as an obstacle to Varys and Aegon.

Tywin's death takes place in the ending of ASoS, Aegon arrives in the end of ADwD.

There is far too much time in between. It makes more sense that he killed Pycelle and Kevan in the ending of ADwD, after Aegon arrives in Westeros.

Varys planted the Tyrell coin is most probably due to the fact that once he realized Tywin was dead, he'd have to flee and couldn't prevent new alliances from forming, so he sowed the seeds of doubt before he left.

As for Varys killing with a crossbow, I reckon it's because he wanted the people to think that whoever killed Tywin also killed Kevan. This would point to Tyrion, who is in Essos, so nothing can be proved, hence buying Varys more time.

[Waylin Stark]

1) Just because Tyrion warns Oberyn that Vary's birds could be listening DOESN'T prove they are. Tyrion is most likely paranoid.

2) I believe that Oberyn knew that he was most likely going to die in his duel against Gregor hence poisoning his blade and toying with Gregor.. because his main goal was to expose Gregor as murdering Elia not simply kill him..he even says 'if you don't admit you killed her i'll chase you through all seven hells'. He wanted Gregor to suffer.

3) It's very likely that Varys didn't plan to leave King's Landing, but after finding out Tyrion murdered his father he was left with no choice. Remember he was forced by Jaime to free Tyrion and create an escape on short notice.

4) Your reasoning for Varys putting the chest under the crossbow doesn't make sense. He could've easily given a child a dagger to kill Tywin which also makes a lot more sense than giving a crossbow to a child.

It makes a lot more sense to me that Oberyn poisoned Tywin, but it's possible Varys did.

I agree with all points except 4), because it's far easier for a child to kill a man with a crossbow than with a dagger.

[DarkAndFullOfTurnips]

Is it not possible that Oberyn suspected that he would never be leaving KL alive, but wanted to get vengeance for Elia and her children which would have been worth dying for? Using a slow acting poison to kill a man isn't the best way to win a duel, but it gives you a really good shot at killing him regardless of whether or not you win.

My only problem with this theory is that you suspect Oberyn would be more cautious if he was the poisoner. But knowing already that he had killed Tywin and would likely kill Gregor (thus successfully avenging Elia) - he may not give a shit if anyone overheard him.

[Axrendale]

The various people who are claiming that Varys orchestrated Tywin's death-by-crossbow in every particular, to the point of asserting that he was responsible for placing the crossbow (and even Shae) in the room, are forgetting several key parts of the relevant chapter. When Tyrion confronted his father on the privy, Tywin recognized it as being his own - he evidently keeps a crossbow in his bedchamber, with no need for one to be planted. And Shae's reaction when she first saw Tyrion indicated fairly clearly that she was expecting Tywin to return to her. She was there because Tywin had wanted her there, not because of Varys.

Varys may still have intended for Tyrion to climb up to the tower, but he had not planned the situation as completely as some are assuming.

[Pinkie Baelish]

Holy shit, this is even more plausible than Oberyn poisoning Tywin. Great job! And it makes perfect sense. I don't believe that Varys didn't have a backup plan in case Tyrion never asked him where Tywin's chambers were. And I'm not sure whether he knew the truth about Tysha. OP deserves a medal.

[Tony of House Stark]

Well I'm buying it. I feel like such an idiot for not noticing that Tywin was poisened until my re-read.

[western wolf]

Not as strong as the oberyn theory, but it has merit. Certainly could turn out to be true.

[Longspear Ryk]

would make sense.... Varys killed kevan and said "The Cersei will blame the Tyrells, and The Tyrells will blame Cersei, and somehow the Dornish will get blamed"

he probably originally intended for Tywin to be the catalyst of that....

Red Viper would get blamed, maybe the Tyrells for the frame...

Tyrion just did him and favor

[A wilding]

-Varys kills Tywin by Tyrion, without using any poison?

There's no need to use poison as well.

You already have a scapegoat, and even if he fails you still can kill your target with another method later.

There's simply no need to kill the same guy twice, especially considering the fact that Varys planned it so carefully: the route, the weapons ready in the room, the presence of Shae after all those stories about Hands of the King whoring, the fact that Varys 'helped' Tyrion to escape right before the execution so that he has no time to think...

Why did he have to plan this much if he already knew that his enemy was surely going to die?

One point no one has yet made on this thread is that the instant Tywin saw Tyrion he correctly deduced that Varys was complicit in Tyrion's escape.

This means that if Tyrion fails to kill Tywin there may well not be another chance for Varys to do so. At the very best, it might suddenly become a lot more difficult. So killing Tywin twice to be certain makes sense. Especially as the timing might make it still possible to blame Tyrion for the killing even if the poison is what does the job. It covers as many bases as possible.

As for the Oberyn vs Gregor duel: Oberyn told Tyrion that his purpose was not so much to get him to confess to Elia's murder, but to confess that Tywin had ordered him to do it. I see no reason to doubt that, so the duel was an excellent chance to make Gregor to do so publically. I see Oberyn's planned revenge as much slower and more vicious than simply poisoning Tywin, which might indeed be taken for death by natural causes, and getting Gregor to confess would have been only the first step.

[A wilding]

... Shae's reaction when she first saw Tyrion indicated fairly clearly that she was expecting Tywin to return to her. She was there because Tywin had wanted her there, not because of Varys

This does not necessary prove that Varys did not arrange for her to be there. Naturally he would have told her she was going there to service Tywin - if he had told her it was part of a murder plot she might well have done something to mess it up.

Also the "return" is not clear. It is reasonably possible from what she said that she had not yet seem Tywin.

[Lord Damian]

At this point, it does not surprise me, I agree that either he or Oberyn were poisoning him, maybe it was Oberyn and Varys knew. Either way, a whole lot of people wanted him dead and it is his death that was and is the complete "gamechanger" thus far.

[Lord Godric]

OP, I like the theory except this part:

Varys knew that the crossbow was in easy reach; he had arranged for that furniture to be placed there. Why? That was his backup plan. A small child could easily reach the crossbow, kill Tywin while he was in bed with Shae, and sneak out through the hidden door. Or, if he needed to cast blame on the Tyrells, he may have come back after leading Tyrion away, and done the deed himself. He had already planted the Highgarden coin in Rugan's cell, remember. Both Tyrion's escape and the death of Tywin Lannister could have been pinned on the Tyrells.

Once Tyrion went missing, Tywin would have immediately suspected Varys, and so Varys would have had to kill him or else risk the strength and force of Tywin Lannister dragging him out for an inquisition.

Tyrion knew exactly where to find his father because he knew that he himself didn't steal Widow's blood, and that Varys' little birds were listening to Oberyn's damning speech and assumed that Varys had taken it upon himself to poison Tywin and blame it on Oberyn. It was easier for Tyrion to kill his father knowing that his father was already dead.

To the first point, it is certainly sloppy to just have a little kid try to shoot Tywin if the poison didn't work. Varys isn't afraid to get his hands dirty, we see him kill Kevan. Why does he need to ensure that one of his little birds can reach the crossbow, when doing it himself would be better and also just more likely to succeed.

And second, I see no indication in the text and in nothing you quoted that Tyrion knew his father was "already dead" as you put it. Martin is such a writer that he would include something small there, in Tyrion's own thoughts, to suggest that what he was doing was inevitable. But he doesn't. Besides, Tyrion wanted to kill him at that point . There was no reason to make it easier on himself because he really wanted the be the one to kill his father.

[Amanda Lannister]

And second, I see no indication in the text and in nothing you quoted that Tyrion knew his father was "already dead" as you put it. Martin is such a writer that he would include something small there, in Tyrion's own thoughts, to suggest that what he was doing was inevitable. But he doesn't. Besides, Tyrion wanted to kill him at that point . There was no reason to make it easier on himself because he really wanted the be the one to kill his father.

I do not have my book with me, so forgive my paraphrasing, but when Tyrion enters Tywins chambers, the text says something along the lines of "he found his father, right where he knew he would be, in the privy."

IMO, this is the indication GRRM gave us about Tyrions possible knowledge about his father being poisoned. He could have thought the Red Viper did it, or Varys, or someone else, who knows. but to me, this small little part of a sentence says volumes.

I can not think of any other reason why the text would say that. Right where he knew he would find him. Why else would Tyrion KNOW, not think, that his father was in the privy...

[FittleLinger]

I do not have my book with me, so forgive my paraphrasing, but when Tyrion enters Tywins chambers, the text says something along the lines of "he found his father, right where he knew he would be, in the privy."

IMO, this is the indication GRRM gave us about Tyrions possible knowledge about his father being poisoned. He could have thought the Red Viper did it, or Varys, or someone else, who knows. but to me, this small little part of a sentence says volumes.

I can not think of any other reason why the text would say that. Right where he knew he would find him. Why else would Tyrion KNOW, not think, that his father was in the privy...

Ninja'd! I was going to bring it up. Tyrion is absolutely sure he is in the privy, while in reality he could be anywhere, and could have left his room for any reason. And now the new crackpot arrives: Tyrion was complicit to his father's poisoning, or maybe he did the deed with the help of Varys or not.

When Tyrion first met the Viper, Oberyn said "Your father is a mortal man", and Tyrion says "Don't speak such treasonous things in King's landing". That's when Tyrion sees the opportunity - to kill his father, and everybody will blame the Viper. Later however, the Viper is Tyrion's only chance of survival as he will be his defender in the trial, and that's why Tyrion was so shocked that the Viper and a Tyrell break bread with Tywin: that the Viper will get accidentally poisoned and not be able to defend him. This might not work if the passage of Tyrel and Martel eating together comes before the Viper's offer to Tyrion (I don't remember), but might still work, because if the Viper dies, then there will be noone to take the blame.

It also has a nice parallel - Tyrion is charged with one poisoning, but is in fact responsible of another.

And if Varys is onboard (partner in crime or just knowing of it because it's his job), maybe that's why he is so reluctant (this contradicts the popular belief that he is not reluctant at all in fact, but assume the opposite and Varys is genuine in this case) to show Tyrion the way to his father's room. As in "We both know he's a dead man, why risk everything and go kill him?".

As I said, crackpot, so don't heat up too much :)