M + L = J and Qhorin knew/suspected it? (NO crackpot)

[Taenqyrhae]

I like this one, it explains a lot of the evidence for the Mance Rhaegar theory without having to explain how Rhaegar became Mance, but there is that hole about why Lyanna was in Dorne.

With Mance Rhaegar, there are two holes, both of which could be explained but there's only the vaguest hints that could allude to that. You'd have to explain how Rhaegar faked his death and how his false backstory of being an adopted wildling came to be accepted. The first can be done with glamours, and the repeated mention of rubies falling out of Rhaegar's armor are intentional red herrings in my opinion if this is not the case. The second part could be explained with Rhaegar getting assistance from Bloodraven and Jorah conspiring to keep him hidden, possibly even having him take the place of a real wildling Mance who had died. But if more evidence of Mance=Rhaegar comes forth, everything else falls perfectly into place. Everything in the more commonly held R+L=J theory supports this theory just as well if not better.

With M+L=J, accepting the theory actually creates more holes. If M=R, everything else makes sense. If M+L=J, then an explanation must be found for why Robert thought that Rhaegar was behind Lyanna's kidnapping. why Rhaegar took her to the Tower of Joy, and why Ned kept her parentage secret.

Mance Rhaegar does ask the reader to accept some pretty big mysteries but once you accept it's central idea it does not require you to question anything else, and the requirement for it to be true resides in a more mysterious place in the story - a prince using magic to fake his death and take on a new identity. The central mystery of M+L=J doesn't require magic but if you simply accept that Mance came down from the Wall and impregnated Lyanna, there are more questions to answer, and they aren't in a mysterious place in the story, they are in the thoughts and actions of POV characters. Why did Ned lie about Lyanna's parentage? Why didn't Lyanna let anyone know what happened with Mance before she was kidnapped(?) by Rhaegar? Why did Rhaegar kidnap Lyanna? I can come up with explanations for these, but they require accepting even more stuff that's not in the books.

I'm not a die-hard Mance=Rhaegar believer but I don't think it's as crackpot as some people believe. Once you get past the faked death, what other problems are there with the theory? Here's a suggestion, even if you think Mance=Rhaegar is ridiculous for whatever reason (and I admit it is a stretch), try to find some holes in that theory that have nothing to do with the mechanics of how Rhaegar faked his death and became known as Mance. Imagine that there's a reliable POV character who mentions how when they pulled Rhaegar's body from the Trident, his face had somehow became mangled, or a reliable character saying that he could have sworn he saw Mance shimmer and briefly look just like Rhaegar, or how Mance's personality changed radically a couple of months after Robert's Rebellion and started ignoring his old friends in the Watch, or anything else that would prove to you that Rhaegar did not die and that it was possible he took the identity of Mance, What other evidence would you have against the idea? I think that GRRM intentionally wrote a lot of hints to lead us to believe that Mance was Rhaegar, too many for it to be an accident. I think it was probably a red herring, but who's to say?

[SummerSphinx]

Some thoughts.

We are told IIRC that Mance was a child of wildling raiders slain by the Night's Watch. He was taken in at the Wall and raised there. It would be hard to fake the "raised at the wall" bit, but not so hard for a small group of people to make up a story about slain raiding wildlings.

One possibility is that he had Bloodraven or Aemon as a father, and he was raised at the Wall with Aemon to look after him. It seems strange to raise a boy at the Wall.

He became a brother of the NW, but are we ever told when he swore his vows? Is it possible he traveled to HH with Yoren to see the spectacle, and is it possible he was still a "ward" of the Wall and not yet a sworn brother? Was he free to legitimately pursue Lyanna?

Is it possible that Rhaegar was more interested in Lyanna's child by Mance than in Lyanna? If Aemon communicated with Rhaegar and if Aemon knew the truth about Mance's parentage and if Aemon knew something about Mance and Lyanna ...

Lyanna crying at Rhaegar's song may have been due to his music triggering memories of her own musical lover. She may have been sad to marry Robert.

Not sure I buy it, but it is interesting.

No, Mance does not need to be a Targaryen. He does have a shadowy family tree, though, and it would give reasons for Rhaegar's interest in any child of theirs.

[SummerSphinx]

Or perhaps Mance could be a child of Duncan the Small and Jenny of Oldstones? If legit, he'd be a real Targaryen.

Why would he be raised at the Wall? Because Aerys II was freaky. We don't really know what happened at Summerhall, but there are some rumors it was a botched attempt to hatch dragons. Children of Duncan & Jenny would have king's blood, even if they were removed from the line of succession. Maybe the woods witch recommended that he be hidden.

Mance would be a cousin of Rhaegar. He may not have known his identity growing up. Aemon would have been his uncle.

If Rhaegar learned of his cousin somehow...

I know, kinda crackpot. But fun!

[KingStoneheart]

I really like this theory (though I agree with you R+L=J is more likely unfortunately) but if it is true then maybe the reason Rhaegar put Lyanna in the ToJ and had 3 kingsugard surround and guard it is because, like you said, she didn't love him back and he just raped her after kidnapping and saw that she was pregnant and just presumed that the baby was his as he believed her to be a virgin?

[jon316]

Lyanna had been with rhaegar for a year when ned found her in a bed of blood no one else could have impregnated lyanna except rhaeygar

[Lady Blizzardborn]

Or perhaps Mance could be a child of Duncan the Small and Jenny of Oldstones? If legit, he'd be a real Targaryen.

<snip

He'd be a heck of a lot older if that were the case. Duncan's little brother Jaehaerys is Rhaegar's grandfather.

If Mance has Targaryen blood, it comes through Bloodraven. There are parallels between them. The raven-winged helm, the "smoke and scarlet" cloaks, the fighting and leadership abilities, the intelligence, the not quite fitting in anywhere. And ultimately the need to save people, be they Wildling or Westerosi.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

I really like this theory (though I agree with you R+L=J is more likely unfortunately) but if it is true then maybe the reason Rhaegar put Lyanna in the ToJ and had 3 kingsugard surround and guard it is because, like you said, she didn't love him back and he just raped her after kidnapping and saw that she was pregnant and just presumed that the baby was his as he believed her to be a virgin?

Mance has to leave the Wall, go to Dorne without getting caught--three months into a WAR--and get back to the Wall after having spent one very fertile night with a captive Lyanna, who is being guarded by at least two KG at all times as far as we know.

The only reason for Rhaegar to guard Mance's baby is if Mance is his secret twin, sent to the Wall at birth to protect the kingdom from a rivalry between the two brothers. Even I don't believe that idea and I'm the one who came up with it!

[SummerSphinx]

He'd be a heck of a lot older if that were the case. Duncan's little brother Jaehaerys is Rhaegar's grandfather.

If Mance has Targaryen blood, it comes through Bloodraven. There are parallels between them. The raven-winged helm, the "smoke and scarlet" cloaks, the fighting and leadership abilities, the intelligence, the not quite fitting in anywhere. And ultimately the need to save people, be they Wildling or Westerosi.

The Wiki was really confusing about the dates. I think I'd lean toward BR's child or grandchild, too. I'm not saying Mance or anyone has to have Targ blood, but I think Rhaegar would be VERY interested in any descendants of Targaryens. He wss looking for "one more." I think he'd try to find descendants of Dunc and Jenny if there were any. Duncan may have set aside the throne for Jenny, but they were married and any children would be legitimate. Mance could be a grandchild if dates are wrong...

All the weirdness about dates of Jon's birth aren't as big as some posters claim. Nobody knows where Lyanna and Rhaegar were for months and months.

What if Lyanna disappeared with Mance for a couple of months, and he left a blue rose. Everyone assumed it was Rhaegar, because Rhaegar gave her the blue rose crown at Harrenhall. Brandon freaks. Craziness happens with Aerys.

Rhaegar decides he needs to find her and return her, wherever she is. Bloodraven sends him some dreams. He finds her, but it takes awhile.

He finds her in the north, but he's a Deadman if caught. Lyanna is in danger, too. The child isn't his, but how does he prove that? She can't marry Mance or he'd be an oathbreaker. (Unless he hadn't said the words, yet). Rhaegar/Bloodraven/Aemon know something about Mance's history. Rhaegar believes Lyanna's child is important. They get a boat. His friend Arthur Dayne helps him hide her in the TOJ with others Rhaegar is trying to protect (Aegon, Ashara's child?) He promises he will deal with Robert, save his wife, and then deal with Aerys. He fails...

Not saying it is the most likely, but we really know so little about Lyanna's whereabouts. Almost everything is rumor.

[Cladinator]

You've put a good amount of work in but I can't see this as even slightly being a possibility. The timeline or the logic behind it really doesn't work.

I like Ran's points on why it doesn't work.

I'll be honest though: maybe I wasn't paying attention when first reading or maybe I'm just thick, because I never really caught on to the R+L=J theory by myself.

[idio]

Qhorin picks Jon because of the Stark / First Men blood, because they share the same commalities as many Wildlings obviously.

Sorry but this is 100% crackpot, if not more.

[idio]

Sorry any theory that stands on two completely separate characters never known to even know of each other's existence *being* eachother is an incredibly implausible to be more than generous

[Lady Blizzardborn]

The Wiki was really confusing about the dates. I think I'd lean toward BR's child or grandchild, too. I'm not saying Mance or anyone has to have Targ blood, but I think Rhaegar would be VERY interested in any descendants of Targaryens. He wss looking for "one more." I think he'd try to find descendants of Dunc and Jenny if there were any. Duncan may have set aside the throne for Jenny, but they were married and any children would be legitimate. Mance could be a grandchild if dates are wrong...

All the weirdness about dates of Jon's birth aren't as big as some posters claim. Nobody knows where Lyanna and Rhaegar were for months and months.

What if Lyanna disappeared with Mance for a couple of months, and he left a blue rose. Everyone assumed it was Rhaegar, because Rhaegar gave her the blue rose crown at Harrenhall. Brandon freaks. Craziness happens with Aerys.

Rhaegar decides he needs to find her and return her, wherever she is. Bloodraven sends him some dreams. He finds her, but it takes awhile.

He finds her in the north, but he's a Deadman if caught. Lyanna is in danger, too. The child isn't his, but how does he prove that? She can't marry Mance or he'd be an oathbreaker. (Unless he hadn't said the words, yet). Rhaegar/Bloodraven/Aemon know something about Mance's history. Rhaegar believes Lyanna's child is important. They get a boat. His friend Arthur Dayne helps him hide her in the TOJ with others Rhaegar is trying to protect (Aegon, Ashara's child?) He promises he will deal with Robert, save his wife, and then deal with Aerys. He fails...

Not saying it is the most likely, but we really know so little about Lyanna's whereabouts. Almost everything is rumor.

Fair points all.

I have this idea that there were witnesses to Lyanna's abduction though. How else do we find out that it was a trio of Rhaegar, Arthur, and Oswell?

[SummerSphinx]

Fair points all.

I have this idea that there were witnesses to Lyanna's abduction though. How else do we find out that it was a trio of Rhaegar, Arthur, and Oswell?

There might be witnesses, and that would limit or nix many possibilities. I suppose if Rhaegar rode off with said knights and people assumed they were responsible ?- What is it Theon says when he disguises the Miller's sons? People see what they expect to see? What they are told to see? Just like many of us see all kinds of things in the books, I guess.

Anyway, whatever GRRM knows, we are never told if Lyanna was alone or with others (servants, friends, a lover, Mance, Ashara) when she disappeared. We don't know if Rhaegar was framed (by Aerys, by Littlefinger, by Mance, someone else). We don't know how long she was at the TOJ. Two days, two months, a year?

We don't know why GRRM used the word "gore" to describe the blood on Lyanna. I hate that word choice if it only is meant to refer to childbirth. I suppose Targaryen births are extra difficult, but I think "gore" is weird. It may be she had other injuries in addition to giving birth.

Also, Ned gets Arya a fencing instructor because he remembers Lyanna and seems to question Rickard's choice to put the kabosh on Lyanna's desire to fight.. He doesn't get Arya a chastity belt or get her betrothed. He teaches her to fight with a sword.

If he thought Lyanna could have saved herself from rape by the prince and the Kingsguard by learning to fight and kill them, why does he think so highly of Rhaegar and said KG? The insinuation is that Lyanna pushed back at her dad in a way that led to great harm because her dad didn't make room for her spirit in all his plans.

Anyway, the story about Lyanna getting carried off and raped to become a loving dying mother--or running off with her musical lover Prince to become a loving dying mother-that sounds like Sansa's tale. Arya yells at Ned that the marriage/mother story is Sansa's story, not hers. Over and over we are told Arya is like Lyanna.

Maybe I'm just getting bored with L+R = J while waiting for WOW. It is not a bad theory, but I like to wonder about other possibilities. Mance seems important, and he seems more like the sort of fun adventure Lyanna would get excited about.

Qhorin specifically said Mance loved women, and Mance said so himself. Mance obviously knows about Bael and blue roses. Jon had never heard of it before Ygritte told him.

I think the biggest weakness is that we have no indication of Mance meeting Lyanna. But we don't actually have any indication that Rhaegar and Lyanna ever even spoke to one another. She cried at his song, but Circei made it sound like Circei did once, too. Rhaegar crowned Lyanna in front of everyone. So they each saw each other from afar...maybe he said a few chivalrous words, like Lora said to Sansa when he gave her the rose.

Lyanna is supposedly abducted by Rhaegar, but we have few details. Littlefinger abducted Sansa, and if anyone saw they would have accused Dontos. Robert tells us she was raped by Rhaegar, which might be true, but it might not be. Rhaegar was not with Lyanna at the TOJ at the end.

Wish we had a few more details. Better yet, the WOW.