Areo Hotah POV in prologue, will be killed by Darkstar

[manting]

Bah, Areo Hotah will make minced meat out of Darkstar

The guy is married to his axe, I think he sleeps with it, and he has a tattoo of it burned into his chest. He will beat Darkstar like a rented red-headed circus monkey. As for the Doran planned it with Darkstar theory - I don't see it. Doran is a safe and patient planner. He would put zero trust in Darkstar "the most dangerous man in dorne." There is also a quote about him being more poison than the Red Viper. He may have been the spy but I don't believe that it was all an elaborate plot to kill Myrcella. Also as to Myrcella being crowned - would the plot by Arriene count? She and her companions call her "Queen." Not sure if this would count for the prophesy.

[Veltigar]

With GRRM's statement, my views do change. So Darkstar did try to kill Myrcella. Well this really kinda only changes the whole thing slightly. Darkstar has to be the spy for Doran, and since Doran let them go on with the plot, he has to have a pretty large degree of faith in Darkstar . If Darkstar was ordered to kill Myrcella under Doran's orders, it would still make sense. Doran gains revenge and his hands are very clean, as he can blame it on Darkstar . Darkstar would easily be able to avoid Lannister forces and would have Dornish help (Areo and Obara for examples) and then would gain a large amount of favor with the new Targaryen king or queen. I also agree with the fact that Darkstar wants infamy, just only to advance his position.

No, I think you see this wrong. If Darkstar was ordered to kill Myrcella by Doran than why is Myrcella still alive? Oakheart was dead so Areo or one of his men could have easily finished the job. Or if you think that Arianne’s company wouldn’t keep their mouth shut than why not ask Tyene to take care of Myrcella? Tyene is a master poisoner and she wouldn’t object to killing Myrcella. In fact she would be pleased with her uncle. She could easily poison Myrcella and make it look like the wound infected or something like that.

Darkstar is a free agent. He came to Doran, told him about what his daughter planned to do. As a result he knew that Doran would sent men to arrest them. And he knew that the first few moments would be filled with confusion and that he would have a chance to take Myrcella down.

After he made his attempt he fled into the dessert because he knew Doran would be pissed.

Not because I think that it’s above Doran to kill a child (although he would regret it) but because Darkstar in essence tried to force his hand. If he had succeeded in killing Myrcella than Doran would have no choice than to go to war against the Lannisters immediately. That doesn’t fit Dorans MO, even now he’s still not sure when to enter the war on behalf of Faegon so why would he want to fight the Lannisters when there wasn’t even a Targaryen (real or fake) in sight?

[KingHodorTargaryen]

No, I think you see this wrong. If Darkstar was ordered to kill Myrcella by Doran than why is Myrcella still alive? Oakheart was dead so Areo or one of his men could have easily finished the job. Or if you think that Arianne’s company wouldn’t keep their mouth shut than why not ask Tyene to take care of Myrcella? Tyene is a master poisoner and she wouldn’t object to killing Myrcella. In fact she would be pleased with her uncle. She could easily poison Myrcella and make it look like the wound infected or something like that.

Darkstar is a free agent. He came to Doran, told him about what his daughter planned to do. As a result he knew that Doran would sent men to arrest them. And he knew that the first few moments would be filled with confusion and that he would have a chance to take Myrcella down.

After he made his attempt he fled into the dessert because he knew Doran would be pissed.

Not because I think that it’s above Doran to kill a child (although he would regret it) but because Darkstar in essence tried to force his hand. If he had succeeded in killing Myrcella than Doran would have no choice than to go to war against the Lannisters immediately. That doesn’t fit Dorans MO, even now he’s still not sure when to enter the war on behalf of Faegon so why would he want to fight the Lannisters when there wasn’t even a Targaryen (real or fake) in sight?

It had to be Darkstar to kill Myrcella because the others wouldn't know about the plot. All it would take would be one traitorous guardsman seeking favor with the Lannisters to blow the plot. Dorne is renowned for poison. Doran knows, especially now, that Cersei is crazy and Tywin wouldn't take anything from Dorne. If Darkstar had succeeded in killing Myrcella, there would be little doubt, especially if Arys had lived, that Darkstar acted alone. They could force Arrianne's group to fake a story they were taking her to the river for whatever, and took the guards. Arys would have followed it for love for Arianne. It would be revenge for Aegon and Elia.

[Veltigar]

It had to be Darkstar to kill Myrcella because the others wouldn't know about the plot. All it would take would be one traitorous guardsman seeking favor with the Lannisters to blow the plot. Dorne is renowned for poison. Doran knows, especially now, that Cersei is crazy and Tywin wouldn't take anything from Dorne. If Darkstar had succeeded in killing Myrcella, there would be little doubt, especially if Arys had lived, that Darkstar acted alone. They could force Arrianne's group to fake a story they were taking her to the river for whatever, and took the guards. Arys would have followed it for love for Arianne. It would be revenge for Aegon and Elia.

If they could force Arianne's group to fake a story than they can also force them to say that Darkstar killed Myrcella with one blow. If the guards couldn't be trusted (which seems highly unlikely because Areo would have taken the most trusted men with him) than they could be assassinated. Hell, half of Arianne's company could be killed off to keep the secret, none of her friends belonged to important houses so they could be missed.

Dorne is indeed renowned for its poison, but Myrcella had a giant fucking wound across her face. Death through a deadly infection isn't that unheard off or Myrcella might have bled out. Also, Tyene is probably the best poisoner in Westeros after Oberyns death, if she killed Myrcella and didn't want anyone to notice than nobody would notice.

Also there is no way that Arys (if he had survived) wouldn’t come clean. The man’s shame of his own weakness and his part in the plot drove him to commit a suicidal attack. If he had survived than he would have talked.

If Tywin had still been alive than he would have stripped Dorne from its seat on the small council and he would have ordered the Dornish to send troops and gold to take Stormsend and dragonstone and possibly a couple of other objectives (Dorne would have to pay a massive toll in human lives for those attacks). He would also demand hostages from Dorne to make sure that there wouldn’t be any more accidents like the one that befell Myrcella. He would also demand the heads of Darkstar and his entire family (Dornishmen killing Dornishmen what a PR nightmare for Doran would that have been). It doesn’t matter that Darkstar was the one who carried the sword. Even if you –like me- believe that Darkstar was a free agent than Tywin would still assume that Doran had something to do with it (which would make the Lannisters a lot more suspicious of Martell movements). And even if Tywin for some reasons comes to the conclusion that Doran had nothing to do with it and that Darkstar was a free agent than he still has Doran by the balls because a princess of the realm died/got maimed during his watch.

[aryagonnakill]

If they could force Arianne's group to fake a story than they can also force them to say that Darkstar killed Myrcella with one blow. If the guards couldn't be trusted (which seems highly unlikely because Areo would have taken the most trusted men with him) than they could be assassinated. Hell, half of Arianne's company could be killed off to keep the secret, none of her friends belonged to important houses so they could be missed.

Dorne is indeed renowned for its poison, but Myrcella had a giant fucking wound across her face. Death through a deadly infection isn't that unheard off or Myrcella might have bled out. Also, Tyene is probably the best poisoner in Westeros after Oberyns death, if she killed Myrcella and didn't want anyone to notice than nobody would notice.

Also there is no way that Arys (if he had survived) wouldn’t come clean. The man’s shame of his own weakness and his part in the plot drove him to commit a suicidal attack. If he had survived than he would have talked.

If Tywin had still been alive than he would have stripped Dorne from its seat on the small council and he would have ordered the Dornish to send troops and gold to take Stormsend and dragonstone and possibly a couple of other objectives (Dorne would have to pay a massive toll in human lives for those attacks). He would also demand hostages from Dorne to make sure that there wouldn’t be any more accidents like the one that befell Myrcella. He would also demand the heads of Darkstar and his entire family (Dornishmen killing Dornishmen what a PR nightmare for Doran would that have been). It doesn’t matter that Darkstar was the one who carried the sword. Even if you –like me- believe that Darkstar was a free agent than Tywin would still assume that Doran had something to do with it (which would make the Lannisters a lot more suspicious of Martell movements). And even if Tywin for some reasons comes to the conclusion that Doran had nothing to do with it and that Darkstar was a free agent than he still has Doran by the balls because a princess of the realm died/got maimed during his watch.

Thats why Killing Myrcella meant war, Doran could not have agreed to those terms.

[Veltigar]

Thats why Killing Myrcella meant war, Doran could not have agreed to those terms.

Indeed and since Doran at the time being did not yet want to go to war it rules him out as the mastermind behind Darkstar's attempt of murder.

[aryagonnakill]

Indeed and since Doran at the time being did not yet want to go to war it rules him out as the mastermind behind Darkstar's attempt of murder.

Yes, I guess I must hop on board with the free agent theory where he was the informer to Doran and also tried to kill Myrcella his own. This definitely makes me worry for Areo. I now feel his entire story line could be to be built up as a badass, show us Doran, and get killed by Darkstar, building him up as a huge badass.

[David bc]

I think we are going to see a Bronn prolouge... As GRRM really focused on Bronn in the i09.com interview. Maybe Bronn assasinating Tommen?

[KingHodorTargaryen]

If they could force Arianne's group to fake a story than they can also force them to say that Darkstar killed Myrcella with one blow. If the guards couldn't be trusted (which seems highly unlikely because Areo would have taken the most trusted men with him) than they could be assassinated. Hell, half of Arianne's company could be killed off to keep the secret, none of her friends belonged to important houses so they could be missed.

Dorne is indeed renowned for its poison, but Myrcella had a giant fucking wound across her face. Death through a deadly infection isn't that unheard off or Myrcella might have bled out. Also, Tyene is probably the best poisoner in Westeros after Oberyns death, if she killed Myrcella and didn't want anyone to notice than nobody would notice.

Also there is no way that Arys (if he had survived) wouldn’t come clean. The man’s shame of his own weakness and his part in the plot drove him to commit a suicidal attack. If he had survived than he would have talked.

If Tywin had still been alive than he would have stripped Dorne from its seat on the small council and he would have ordered the Dornish to send troops and gold to take Stormsend and dragonstone and possibly a couple of other objectives (Dorne would have to pay a massive toll in human lives for those attacks). He would also demand hostages from Dorne to make sure that there wouldn’t be any more accidents like the one that befell Myrcella. He would also demand the heads of Darkstar and his entire family (Dornishmen killing Dornishmen what a PR nightmare for Doran would that have been). It doesn’t matter that Darkstar was the one who carried the sword. Even if you –like me- believe that Darkstar was a free agent than Tywin would still assume that Doran had something to do with it (which would make the Lannisters a lot more suspicious of Martell movements). And even if Tywin for some reasons comes to the conclusion that Doran had nothing to do with it and that Darkstar was a free agent than he still has Doran by the balls because a princess of the realm died/got maimed during his watch.

Doran is very cautious. This was a plot to kill the princess. Why would Doran trust about 50 people when he only has to trust one? Arrianne's party was full of people related to nobles. Look up the conversation between her and Doran. They all had connections to some powerful houses. So that leaves us with two questions. Why would Doran risk this, and why would he order Darkstar to kill her? Well, Doran had already sent his son to treat with Dany. He knew that she would win if and when she came. He also knew that with a change of leadership would come a change of plans. If Dorne had to send hostages and lost their seat, it made little difference. The seat could be regained, and hostages could be rescued, or not sent, or simply delayed until something changed. Doran knew that Oberyn was dead, and that Tywin could actually ill afford another kingdom rebelling with the North, Crownlands, and Riverlands in shambles. Tywin would have to tread cautiously as well as Doran. So finally, we have the question, why would it be Darkstar, and not Tyene poisoning her? Well, like I said already, poison would be very suspicious and a well trained maestar would be able to tell it was poison (like Balabar at Tyrion's trial). Also, there is every chance it would be noticeable to someone even untrained in biological arts, such as seeing an extreme build up of waste if it was the Tears of Lys. The only three mortal poisons we have heard of are the Strangler, the Tears of Lys, and sweetsleep. Tears of Lys create a build up of waste, the Strangler would be so obvious, and it would be unheard of for a 9 year old girl to die in her sleep. So that leaves killing her outright or another way. Darkstar is the best way to kill (or rather attempt) Myrcella while pinning the blame on someone with no question as to who committed the deed while making Doran look reasonably innocent at the time.

[The Imperator]

Yep I'm in total agreement. Aero is a total badass, what we know of Darkstar is that he tried to kill a defenseless child, failed, and then ran away. Not exactly impressive. I'm assuming GRRM has written the character for some reason, but so far his purpose eludes me.

Areo doesn't strike me as badass and certainly not Darkstar. Darkstar is the worse character in the entire series, which sucks because all of Martin's characters are brilliantly written, such as Theon Greyjoy, Victarion Greyjoy, Oberyn Martell, Tywin Lannister, Jaime Lannister, Sansa Stark, Ned Stark, Stannis "the Mannis" Baratheon, Davos Seaworth, etc, etc, etc, etc. I could really go on and on about the great characters that Martin has.

But Darkstar? Darkstar is a blot on Martin's otherwise spotless record. A small blot, but still a noticeable one.

[ladyinblack]

I agree

Me too

If he would have killed Mrycella, the game would be over. Doran is still waiting for Quentyn to arrive

[Veltigar]

Doran is very cautious. This was a plot to kill the princess. Why would Doran trust about 50 people when he only has to trust one? Arrianne's party was full of people related to nobles. Look up the conversation between her and Doran. They all had connections to some powerful houses. So that leaves us with two questions. Why would Doran risk this, and why would he order Darkstar to kill her? Well, Doran had already sent his son to treat with Dany. He knew that she would win if and when she came. He also knew that with a change of leadership would come a change of plans. If Dorne had to send hostages and lost their seat, it made little difference. The seat could be regained, and hostages could be rescued, or not sent, or simply delayed until something changed. Doran knew that Oberyn was dead, and that Tywin could actually ill afford another kingdom rebelling with the North, Crownlands, and Riverlands in shambles. Tywin would have to tread cautiously as well as Doran. So finally, we have the question, why would it be Darkstar, and not Tyene poisoning her? Well, like I said already, poison would be very suspicious and a well trained maestar would be able to tell it was poison (like Balabar at Tyrion's trial). Also, there is every chance it would be noticeable to someone even untrained in biological arts, such as seeing an extreme build up of waste if it was the Tears of Lys. The only three mortal poisons we have heard of are the Strangler, the Tears of Lys, and sweetsleep. Tears of Lys create a build up of waste, the Strangler would be so obvious, and it would be unheard of for a 9 year old girl to die in her sleep. So that leaves killing her outright or another way. Darkstar is the best way to kill (or rather attempt) Myrcella while pinning the blame on someone with no question as to who committed the deed while making Doran look reasonably innocent at the time.

That’s a fucking wall of text.

Doran is very cautious. This was a plot to kill the princess. Why would Doran trust about 50 people when he only has to trust one?

First of all you contradict yourself. In the quote above you say “why would Doran …” and in a previous post (see directly below) you state

They could force Arrianne's group to fake a story they were taking her to the river for whatever, and took the guards. Arys would have followed it for love for Arianne. It would be revenge for Aegon and Elia.

If they can force them to tell one tale they can force them to tell another.

Arrianne's party was full of people related to nobles. Look up the conversation between her and Doran. They all had connections to some powerful houses.

No they hadn’t. Darkstar, Andrey Dalt and Sylvia Santager were all part of Knightly houses. They weren’t part of any important house nor where most of them important members of those houses. Andrey was the brother and heir to the Knight of Lemonwood (expandable) and Sylvia the heir to the Santagers and yet she was send away to marry an unimportant, old Estermont. The only one of note to their own houses was Darkstar as he is the head of his own house.

And the other member of their party was an orphan of the Greenblood.

Well, Doran had already sent his son to treat with Dany. He knew that she would win if and when she came. He also knew that with a change of leadership would come a change of plans. If Dorne had to send hostages and lost their seat, it made little difference. The seat could be regained, and hostages could be rescued, or not sent, or simply delayed until something changed.

My opinion of Doran as a player might be low but you must think that he’s retarded. Losing your seat does matter and hostages aren’t simply rescued or delayed. The strategy you propose would cost Dorne an immense toll in human lives and damage to property. Especially since Doran didn’t know when exactly Daenerys would return and what kind of firepower she would bring (does she take her armies? Can she control her dragons?)

Doran knew that Oberyn was dead, and that Tywin could actually ill afford another kingdom rebelling with the North, Crownlands, and Riverlands in shambles. Tywin would have to tread cautiously as well as Doran.

If Doran actually thought that than why didn’t he open an all-out assault on the Lannister controlled part of the Kingdoms? If Tywin could ill afford it than he should be able to hurt the Lannisters and hold out long enough for Daenerys to save his ass. It would be inconvenient for Tywin that would be sure but for Doran it would be death sentence.

So finally, we have the question, why would it be Darkstar, and not Tyene poisoning her? Well, like I said already, poison would be very suspicious and a well trained maestar would be able to tell it was poison (like Balabar at Tyrion's trial). Also, there is every chance it would be noticeable to someone even untrained in biological arts, such as seeing an extreme build up of waste if it was the Tears of Lys. The only three mortal poisons we have heard of are the Strangler, the Tears of Lys, and sweetsleep. Tears of Lys create a build up of waste, the Strangler would be so obvious, and it would be unheard of for a 9 year old girl to die in her sleep. So that leaves killing her outright or another way.

1) There are a lot more types of Poison (e.g. the manticore poison used by Oberyn)

2) Tyene isn’t just a poisoner. She’s a master poisoner. No normal master would have been able to conclusively tell wheter or not poison was used (especially since an autopsy by a Lannister friendly Maester would be impossible).

3) And a sword to the face isn’t suspicious?

Darkstar is the best way to kill (or rather attempt) Myrcella while pinning the blame on someone with no question as to who committed the deed while making Doran look reasonably innocent at the time.

1) There is no such thing as “reasonably” innocent. Even if Tywin would believe that Doran was completely innocent (which would be against anything we know of him) than Doran was still responsible for the death of a PRINCESS OF THE MOTHERFUCKING REALM dying on his watch. The only thing that could happen from then on was war. Touch a Lannister princess with a finger and lose your arm. Murder a Lannister princess and loose everything.

[tbc]

Indeed and since Doran at the time being did not yet want to go to war it rules him out as the mastermind behind Darkstar's attempt of murder.

But he's already sent an army out of the Boneway to meet Aegon. If he wanted simply to assess Aegon, he'd have sent a trusted emissary. By sending an army, Doran has made war largely inevitable, and given that he's probably in contact with either Illyrio or Varys, it would make sense for him to accelerate his plans given that Aegon has accelerated those of Varys and Illyrio.

[Veltigar]

But he's already sent an army out of the Boneway to meet Aegon. If he wanted simply to assess Aegon, he'd have sent a trusted emissary. By sending an army, Doran has made war largely inevitable, and given that he's probably in contact with either Illyrio or Varys, it would make sense for him to accelerate his plans given that Aegon has accelerated those of Varys and Illyrio.

1) He didn't even know of Aegon existance at the time of the Myrcella incident

2) He hasn’t send out an army through the bone way.

[tbc]

1) He didn't even know of Aegon existance at the time of the Myrcella incident

2) He hasn’t send out an army through the bone way.

1: That we know of.

2: Having checked the chapter, you're right, the armies are in the Boneway, which could simply be defensive (on which note, how possible is it that Aurane Waters raids Dorne?)

I think you're right about Darkstar, he's more likely to be acting alone than anything else. But there's far more to the game Doran is playing than has been revealed yet. He must, realistically, be in contact with either Varys or Illyrio, and seems to have been actively colluding with them.

[Veltigar]

1: That we know of.

2: Having checked the chapter, you're right, the armies are in the Boneway, which could simply be defensive (on which note, how possible is it that Aurane Waters raids Dorne?)

I think you're right about Darkstar, he's more likely to be acting alone than anything else. But there's far more to the game Doran is playing than has been revealed yet. He must, realistically, be in contact with either Varys or Illyrio, and seems to have been actively colluding with them.

1) You haven’t read the sample chapters I presume?

2) Why would Aurane do that? Dorne doesn’t seem to be the place where a pirate can make a profit.

I think you're right about Darkstar, he's more likely to be acting alone than anything else. But there's far more to the game Doran is playing than has been revealed yet. He must, realistically, be in contact with either Varys or Illyrio, and seems to have been actively colluding with them.

I advise you to read the sample chapters.

[tbc]

1) You haven’t read the sample chapters I presume?

2) Why would Aurane do that? Dorne doesn’t seem to be the place where a pirate can make a profit.

I advise you to read the sample chapters.

I have read them, and I don't believe that Doran's being honest with Arianne. There's no evidence to suggest he would be.

[Veltigar]

I have read them, and I don't believe that Doran's being honest with Arianne. There's no evidence to suggest he would be.

What about the fact that Doran feels guilty for what has kept them apart for so many years? What about the fact that Doran gave her the key to Dornish power? And more importantly... Why the fuck did he sent his son away to Daenerys if he was in cohoots with Illy and Varys all the time?

[tbc]

What about the fact that Doran feels guilty for what has kept them apart for so many years? What about the fact that Doran gave her the key to Dornish power? And more importantly... Why the fuck did he sent his son away to Daenerys if he was in cohoots with Illy and Varys all the time?

Doran mentions that Arianne was intended to marry Viserys: given that Dany and Viserys were protected by Darry, Illyrio, and Varys, it's only logical that the people with whom Doran colludes when planning to marry Arianne to Viserys would have been Darry, Illyrio and Varys. It isn't too great a stretch to presume that Varys was involved in the marriage pact and Darry's protecting Dany and Viserys, it makes perfect sense.

And why assume that Doran, at the end of a AFFC, is being completely honest with Arianne and having some sort of cathartic reunion and grand reveal? He's manipulated her, and everybody (apart from Oberyn) for decades. Revealing enough to co-opt her into working with him, and make her feel special, but not revealing everything, would be entirely in character.

As for sending Quentyn away, again there's no evidence that this isn't done in cahoots with Illyrio and Varys. It costs the latter two nothing, and if it brings Dany back it saves everybody a lot of time and uncertainty.

[Veltigar]

Doran mentions that Arianne was intended to marry Viserys: given that Dany and Viserys were protected by Darry, Illyrio, and Varys, it's only logical that the people with whom Doran colludes when planning to marry Arianne to Viserys would have been Darry, Illyrio and Varys. It isn't too great a stretch to presume that Varys was involved in the marriage pact and Darry's protecting Dany and Viserys, it makes perfect sense.

No, it does not. Darry acted on his own and saved Dany and Viserys. He sought favor with the sealord and set up shop there. Oberyn came, they did the marriage pact. Darry and the Sealord died and the next sealord kicked them out. After that we know that Dany and Viserys wandered through the different free cities before they wound up with Illyrio. Illyrio and Varys operated independently from Doran and Darry.

And why assume that Doran, at the end of a AFFC, is being completely honest with Arianne and having some sort of cathartic reunion and grand reveal? He's manipulated her, and everybody (apart from Oberyn) for decades. Revealing enough to co-opt her into working with him, and make her feel special, but not revealing everything, would be entirely in character.

He did not actively manipulate her. He kept things from her for sure and from time to time he would try to make a match with an unworthy candidate to pose that he was still trying to get her married off.

On top of that everything in the text points out that he didn’t know that Arianne took it so harshly because he didn’t know that Arianne read his letter to her brother and that she interpreted it in the way she did. Therefore he feels guilty for all the years of strive between the two of them. Strive which almost backfired immensely when Arianne hatch her stupid Myrcella scheme. On top of that Doran had just lost his most valued partner-in-crime, his beloved brother Oberyn and he needs a new confidant. That’s why he reveals his intentions to her and why he gives her agency of her own.

As for sending Quentyn away, again there's no evidence that this isn't done in cahoots with Illyrio and Varys. It costs the latter two nothing, and if it brings Dany back it saves everybody a lot of time and uncertainty.

Are you kidding me? Of course it costs Illy and Varys, in fact it costs them most dearly. Dany controls the dragons and the armies (except for the GC), she’s the big prize. That’s why they wanted Faegon to marry her. If Dany married Quentyn and together they decide to become King and Queen who would stop them? Faegon and Arianne wouldn’t even have the whole of Dorne rise up for them (the Ironwoods would be on Quentyns side). And Faegon would be condemned to play second violin.

On top of that it would also be daft to see Dany and Quentyn marry. In your scenario they supposedly have Dorne already so why not save the hands of both Quentyn and Dany to make marriage alliances with the other great houses.