Areo Hotah POV in prologue, will be killed by Darkstar

[tbc]

Its all about timing. There are two critical events that we are looking at:

1. Cersei and Margaery's trials.

2. Connington versus the Tyrell invasion force.

If Ser Robert Strong prevails on Cersei's behalf, will she immediately grab Tommen and make a break for the Rock? Will she await Myrcella or will Myrcella have arrived by then?

A victory over the Tyrell invasion force is the final step needed for all potential allies of Aegon to come together. The question of will Cersei already be gone by the time this all happens?

I think there's another option here: the Tyrell force turns cloak and sides with Aegon. They're Targ loyalists at heart, and the choice between a borderline insane, and deeply hostile, Cersei, and a young Targaryen who would be very grateful for Tyrell support (and presumably grant them lands in the Westerlands) isn't a hard one to make. It becomes even easier if Margaery is found guilty (which, given Qyburn's likely role torturing the witnesses, is more than possible).

On which note, has anybody considered whether Aurane Waters is a part of this? House Velaryon is the closest of any of the houses to the Targaryens, they'd certainly welcome a Valyrian king. And, given that Varys seems to be co-ordinating events for Aegon from KL, it wouldn't be difficult for Varys to coopt Aurane into abandoning Cersei (I'm holding out hope for the other half of the GC turning up at KL and taking the city for Aegon).

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

I think there's another option here: the Tyrell force turns cloak and sides with Aegon. They're Targ loyalists at heart, and the choice between a borderline insane, and deeply hostile, Cersei, and a young Targaryen who would be very grateful for Tyrell support (and presumably grant them lands in the Westerlands) isn't a hard one to make. It becomes even easier if Margaery is found guilty (which, given Qyburn's likely role torturing the witnesses, is more than possible).

On which note, has anybody considered whether Aurane Waters is a part of this? House Velaryon is the closest of any of the houses to the Targaryens, they'd certainly welcome a Valyrian king. And, given that Varys seems to be co-ordinating events for Aegon from KL, it wouldn't be difficult for Varys to coopt Aurane into abandoning Cersei (I'm holding out hope for the other half of the GC turning up at KL and taking the city for Aegon).

If Tarly is leading the expedition force, I still don't think he will yield without battle first. He will want to test Aegon's mettle first.

The High Septon all but said the case against Margaery will be dismissed. She is only being tried as a formality.

I've long held that joining Aegon is Lord Waters best option. Aegon will need sea power to take KL.

[tbc]

If Tarly is leading the expedition force, I still don't think he will yield without battle first. He will want to test Aegon's mettle first.

The High Septon all but said the case against Margaery will be dismissed. She is only being tried as a formality.

I've long held that joining Aegon is Lord Waters best option. Aegon will need sea power to take KL.

I'm not sure about Tarly. He fought hard and effectively against Robert, beat him at Ashford, and has thereafter followed Mace. But, even if the Tyrells don't abandon Cersei for Aegon (which they have every reason to do), there's something slightly Barristan-esque about Tarly, and I wonder whether meeting JonCon and Aegon before the battle, being convinced that it's actually JonCon, and being impressed by Aegon (he'll have Blackfyre, and have taken Storm's End), he won't side with them. And that's without considering what Olenna and Garlan will do. She might force the issue.

And there's an awful lot of symbolism about Aurane to suggest that he'll side with Aegon: Daemon Velaryon was Aegon's Master of Sea in the initial conquest, and Orys Baratheon was a bastard. Aurane has also indicated, by trying to curry favour in KL and become Master of Sea, that he wants an official position and legitmacy. Running to the Stepstones and becoming a pirate doesn't really fit. That's notwithstanding Varys' machinations too.

[aryagonnakill]

I'm not sure about Tarly. He fought hard and effectively against Robert, beat him at Ashford, and has thereafter followed Mace. But, even if the Tyrells don't abandon Cersei for Aegon (which they have every reason to do), there's something slightly Barristan-esque about Tarly, and I wonder whether meeting JonCon and Aegon before the battle, being convinced that it's actually JonCon, and being impressed by Aegon (he'll have Blackfyre, and have taken Storm's End), he won't side with them. And that's without considering what Olenna and Garlan will do. She might force the issue.

And there's an awful lot of symbolism about Aurane to suggest that he'll side with Aegon: Daemon Velaryon was Aegon's Master of Sea in the initial conquest, and Orys Baratheon was a bastard. Aurane has also indicated, by trying to curry favour in KL and become Master of Sea, that he wants an official position and legitmacy. Running to the Stepstones and becoming a pirate doesn't really fit. That's notwithstanding Varys' machinations too.

Patchface says that Aurane Waters will go to White Harbor.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

I'm not sure about Tarly. He fought hard and effectively against Robert, beat him at Ashford, and has thereafter followed Mace. But, even if the Tyrells don't abandon Cersei for Aegon (which they have every reason to do), there's something slightly Barristan-esque about Tarly, and I wonder whether meeting JonCon and Aegon before the battle, being convinced that it's actually JonCon, and being impressed by Aegon (he'll have Blackfyre, and have taken Storm's End), he won't side with them. And that's without considering what Olenna and Garlan will do. She might force the issue.

And there's an awful lot of symbolism about Aurane to suggest that he'll side with Aegon: Daemon Velaryon was Aegon's Master of Sea in the initial conquest, and Orys Baratheon was a bastard. Aurane has also indicated, by trying to curry favour in KL and become Master of Sea, that he wants an official position and legitmacy. Running to the Stepstones and becoming a pirate doesn't really fit. That's notwithstanding Varys' machinations too.

I agree with this, especially the symbolism. I have thought much the same thing.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Patchface says that Aurane Waters will go to White Harbor.

I'm not so sure about this theory and it can be interpreted several ways. White Harbor has its own fleet.

[joluoto]

Please yes, Hotah's about as interesting was a boiled carrot.

But he's a carrot that's leagues more interesting than Captain Emo.

[aryagonnakill]

I'm not so sure about this theory and it can be interpreted several ways. White Harbor has its own fleet.

I'm re reading clash right now, and if you read patchfaces songs clearly, they come true he describes what Stannis's lords will be waring, I assume you know my comment was in regards to patchfaces statement that Stannis's men will ride seahorses. Its definitely iffy, but I put stock in patchface having some sinister purpose.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

I'm re reading clash right now, and if you read patchfaces songs clearly, they come true he describes what Stannis's lords will be waring, I assume you know my comment was in regards to patchfaces statement that Stannis's men will ride seahorses. Its definitely iffy, but I put stock in patchface having some sinister purpose.

I know very well what you're proposing, as I have read the post dedicated to this theory ad nauseam. While I do agree that Patchface has some supernatural abilities and a role to play, this particular theory does not seem to fit IMO.

He does seem to predict the "Red Wedding" pretty accurately and Mel's shadow babies, and Mel has seen him in the flames with skulls around him and his lips dripping with blood. But the prophecy you and other are pointing to is too much of a stretch.

[tbc]

Patchface says that Aurane Waters will go to White Harbor.

Sort of. It's nowhere near as explicit as he is for events in ASoS.

Whereas an informed reading of Aurane's background screams a cross between Daemon and Orys.

[The Imperator]

I'm fine with Areo Hotah being killed off in the book. The guy isn't interesting at all. I dislike him almost as much as Darkstar.

[John Thompson]

Out of Arianne's party, I believe that Ser Andrey Dalt, not Darkstar, is the most likely informant for Prince Doran.

On the day that Doran departs the Water Gardens, he has breakfast and says farewell to several children "who had become especial favorites," among them "the Dalt boy." (AFFC, The Captain of Guards.) In the book's text as well as the house summaries in the appendix, there are only two Dalts mentioned: Ser Deziel, the Knight of Lemonwood, and Ser Andrey, his brother and heir. Unless "the Dalt boy" is a bastard given the courtesy of his father's name or there are other Dalts not mentioned in the appendix, then it would seem that Ser Andrey has a son at the Water Gardens whom Doran can hold hostage for his father's loyalty. Doran knows that Arianne trusts Drey, so he is a natural choice to provide Doran with information about his daughter's intentions.

Later, Arianne reflects that "Drey had wanted a larger party" to spirit Myrcella across the desert, but was rebuffed by Arianne to preserve the mission's secrecy. (AFFC, The Queenmaker.) If Doran is to control the situation after Arianne "succeeds" in kidnapping Myrcella, it would be best if he had men in Arianne's party that were secretly loyal to minimize the possibility of violent resistance upon capture.

Darkstar seems unlikely for Doran's informant. He is committed to war with the Iron Throne, which Doran is desperate to prevent until Daenerys has landed in Dorne. Realizing that Arianne's plan for war has failed, Darkstar attempts to kill Myrcella while Ser Arys distracts Areo Hotah's men, and flees on horseback with Hotah's men in pursuit. If Darkstar were expecting a handshake from Doran at the end of all this, why run?

Garin seems unlikely, insofar as Garin is the source of Arianne's information that Quentyn is leaving Dorne for abroad via the Planky Town. If Doran knew how Arianne knew, he could only have known because Garin told him. He professes not to know how Arianne knows Quentyn's gone, and reveals his plans for Quentyn in order to find out how Arianne knew. I can't imagine that he would bother sharing information that important if it weren't critical to establish how many people would know about Quentyn's departure.

We know even less about Sylva, but marrying her to a man old enough to be her grandfather doesn't seem like a reward for a loyal spy.

Drey it is, for me.