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Littlefinger's Downfall


mattah84

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It seems that Nestor Royce's feast is going to reveal a tremendous amount about the ongoing machinations in the Vale. Nestor Royce is a hugely important player, and his true relation to LF will be exceedingly important in determining what happens. More about Harrdyng may also be shown and Myranda Royce is hastening to find out additional information about Sansa and LF. Myranda claims to detest Harrdyng and it would be interesting to see more about what Nestor thinks of the Waynwood rejection of his plan to marry his daughter to Harry.

LF has presently dampened Declarant opposition to his presence, however the Royces at Runestone remain a significant problem, as does the Hunter house. Baelish is much more popular in Gulltown, with merchants, and the corrupt than in the countryside and with the most elite houses. Although his manipulation of treacherous players has strengthed him, LF still has to worry that individuals like Nestor or especially Corbray cannot be trusted and could turn on him if someone else tried to exploit their power.

The odds are high that Sansa will be a prime driver of LF's undoing. He has already revealed dangerous information to her beyond the point of prudence, apparently assuming she is permanently his ally no matter what. Perhaps the greatest hazard is his nearly overt discussion of how Robert is slated to die. Another problem, though partially outside of his control, was that Sansa heard Lysa's ravings when LF eliminated her. Sansa may consider that taking the initiative is becoming a more pressing and urgent matter. A key question is whether Sansa will start to try to maneuver and manipulate LF's plan from within (perhaps trying to setup a situation were she can rapidly turn the tables) or whether she will take a more rapid approach.

Sandor, as well as the mountain clans, will likely somehow factor into the Sansa arc.

I want to learn more about those Gulltown's merchants who are rich enough to get a lord (a heirless lord!) as husband for their daughter.

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I think Littlefinger's downfall has to be by Sansa. She will have help from some (or most) of the Lords Declarant. I think that she may help or will be forced into helping Littlefinger murder Robert Arryn and at that point she will turn on him. She will tell all of how Littlefinger murdered Lysa Arryn and Jon Arryn and started the War of 5 Kings. To back her up, she will have the singer Marillion. As far as we know, he is still imprisoned in the sky cells. Littlefinger will either be beheaded for his crimes (I would find that fitting since he allowed Ned to lose his head) or thrown out the Moon Door.

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From another thread, but I think this will be Littlefinger's downfall:

I think it's clearly going to be Sansa. Even more so than Jaime killing Cersei, this is the one I'm most positive of. Here's specifically how I think it's going to go down: Sansa will soon marry Harry the Heir in private through Littlefinger. While that happens, the Bolton regime in the North collapses due to a combination of Stannis, the Manderlies, and the Watch/Wildings taking out Ramsay's men when he comes to collect his bride. Cersei will demand that the Vale and Riverlords go take back the North from the Northerners and Stannis. Littlefinger humbly agrees.

Littlefinger takes Sansa and the Vale's army with him, leaving Harry the Heir and Robert (if he's still alive) behind to watch after the Vale. Littlefinger picks up some of the Riverlands' lords and armies on the way (now being the Lord of the Riverlands) as well as intercepting some of the Frey hostages on the way to King's Landing. Eventually he arrives in the Twins to pick up additional Frey forces. Once settled, Littlefinger razes the Twins and kills all the Freys. Some of the Freys escape to the South, but are instantly murdered by Nymeria's murderous pack. The Brotherhood Without Banners meanwhile wipe out the Freys at Riverrun.

Littlefinger claims Sansa as the Queen in the North and releases the remaining Frey hostages who all swear their allegiance to her. Sansa is incredibly disturbed by the actions taken due to the fact that no one but the hostages were spared, including the women and children. Littlefinger tells Sansa that she doesn't have what it takes in the end since she has the soft heart of a woman. Sansa then figures out that Littlefinger told Joffrey to execute Ned and is responsible for the destruction of her family. Also at this point, the remaining Lannister allies begin plotting to betray them to Aegon, and the Lannisters are basically destroyed after that (with the exception of possibly Jaime and definitely Tyrion).

Sansa and Littlefinger now make their way up to Winterfell with their whole army, but find the castle almost entirely abandoned. Stannis' previous garrison is now in the North fighting the Others, who by this point have have almost broken through the Wall. Littlefinger finds out and Sansa overhears that Rickon and Bran are still alive, and that Jon Snow has been reborn and is leading all the troops in the North. He becomes much more physically abusive of Sansa at this point since this is the first time his plan has gone awry, even to the point of raping her. Sansa also figures that he is now plotting on killing her remaining family to secure Sansa's claim.

The day of reckoning finally comes, and the Others make their way to Winterfell. There is a brutal battle where all seems lost, but Tyrion riding Viserion and backed up by a portion of Dany's army come over the hill and turn the tide of battle. Tyrion demands their surrender and to unite their army with his, since it's the only way they can survive, or else he'll burn Winterfell to the ground. Sansa pleads with Littlefinger, but Littlefinger refuses and the battle continues, this time with Littlefinger's forces vs Tyrion's. Tyrion however doesn't go through with his word in burning down Winterfell since he respects the place too much and knows that the only person he needs to take down is Littlefinger himself.

Tyrion flies into the castle and sees Littlefinger running into the crypts. Tyrion runs after him. Down in the crypts, Littlefinger ambushes Tyrion nearly killing him. Littlefinger though begins to gloat and tell Tyrion how he outsmarted all his highborn cohorts the entire time, and how he tried to have Tyrion killed numerous times, knowing that he was his only real threat who could see Littlefinger for who he really was, Every time Tyrion would slip barely slip between his fingers, but each time it worked to his advantage. Tyrion surviving Catelyn ensured Harrenhal, surviving Ser Mandon (who he bribed to kill Tyrion) allowed him to take the blame for murdering Joffrey, escaping execution allowed him to kill Tywin and plummet the kingdom into chaos, and now he delivered a dragon to him personally to burn down the kingdom for good.

As he goes in for the kill, Sansa stabs him from behind through the heart with the Valyrian Steel dagger he framed Tyrion with. Littlefinger realizes his error too late and notices that he's at the foot of Ned Stark's tomb. Sansa then helps Tyrion to his feet and sees to his wounds with their Maester. They annul their marriage, unite their armies, and go to join Dany and Jon for the great final battle with the Others.

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All the people arguing about how tenuous Littlefinger's position in the Vale is, and how he doesn't have an army, have missed the point.

Remember what Tyrion says about Littlefinger? That the Lannisters mine their gold from the ground, but Littlefinger makes his from thin air. Littlefinger's wealth is like that 'red paperclip' story; he starts with something valueless and he keeps making incremental trades until he has an item of value. He's done the same with his social capital.

He started with a barren island and a few family connections. He parlayed that to a bureaucratic post in King's Landing. He transformed that into a seat on the Small Council. He transformed that into a title, Lord of Harrenhall. This was a dramatic leap for him, but nobody cared because the Lannisters didn't control Harrenhall and, in any case, it has hardly any lands attached. A few characters wondered why he'd worked so hard for such an empty reward, but then he showed them: he traded it for marriage to Lysa.

It is a mistake to assume he's made his final trade. His position in the Vale is an improvement but, as has been pointed out elsewhere, relatively tenuous. He needs to keep going. The Vale is another stepping stone & he'll leave it behind before he's mired down in a war. He'll leave it behind because he's going to trade up again.

It seems like Sansa will be the vehicle for his next trade. But I think it's a mistake to assume that Sansa is somehow his endgame, or that he's infatuated with her. He's using her, and considering how many secrets she's learned from him, he'll be planning to kill her before he trades again.

Littlefinger, like Varys, faces a different set of risks and rewards than the obvious power players. He doesn't want an army or a defense pact or a host of knights because he survives by slipping under the radar. He aims to appear harmless but useful. That means that if/when he dies, nobody will avenge him. That's the end of his story. But it also gives him the potential to do what Varys has done--to survive and prosper through a succession of kings and dynasties.

I'd like to think that Sansa will end Littlefinger somehow, but I seriously doubt it. She gets a lot smarter and savvier throughout AFFC, but Littlefinger is still running laps around her.

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  • 1 month later...

All the people arguing about how tenuous Littlefinger's position in the Vale is, and how he doesn't have an army, have missed the point.

Remember what Tyrion says about Littlefinger? That the Lannisters mine their gold from the ground, but Littlefinger makes his from thin air. Littlefinger's wealth is like that 'red paperclip' story; he starts with something valueless and he keeps making incremental trades until he has an item of value. He's done the same with his social capital.

He started with a barren island and a few family connections. He parlayed that to a bureaucratic post in King's Landing. He transformed that into a seat on the Small Council. He transformed that into a title, Lord of Harrenhall. This was a dramatic leap for him, but nobody cared because the Lannisters didn't control Harrenhall and, in any case, it has hardly any lands attached. A few characters wondered why he'd worked so hard for such an empty reward, but then he showed them: he traded it for marriage to Lysa.

It is a mistake to assume he's made his final trade. His position in the Vale is an improvement but, as has been pointed out elsewhere, relatively tenuous. He needs to keep going. The Vale is another stepping stone & he'll leave it behind before he's mired down in a war. He'll leave it behind because he's going to trade up again.

It seems like Sansa will be the vehicle for his next trade. But I think it's a mistake to assume that Sansa is somehow his endgame, or that he's infatuated with her. He's using her, and considering how many secrets she's learned from him, he'll be planning to kill her before he trades again.

Littlefinger, like Varys, faces a different set of risks and rewards than the obvious power players. He doesn't want an army or a defense pact or a host of knights because he survives by slipping under the radar. He aims to appear harmless but useful. That means that if/when he dies, nobody will avenge him. That's the end of his story. But it also gives him the potential to do what Varys has done--to survive and prosper through a succession of kings and dynasties.

I'd like to think that Sansa will end Littlefinger somehow, but I seriously doubt it. She gets a lot smarter and savvier throughout AFFC, but Littlefinger is still running laps around her.

So he's the Federal Reserve of Westeros.

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All the people arguing about how tenuous Littlefinger's position in the Vale is, and how he doesn't have an army, have missed the point.

Remember what Tyrion says about Littlefinger? That the Lannisters mine their gold from the ground, but Littlefinger makes his from thin air. Littlefinger's wealth is like that 'red paperclip' story; he starts with something valueless and he keeps making incremental trades until he has an item of value. He's done the same with his social capital.

He started with a barren island and a few family connections. He parlayed that to a bureaucratic post in King's Landing. He transformed that into a seat on the Small Council. He transformed that into a title, Lord of Harrenhall. This was a dramatic leap for him, but nobody cared because the Lannisters didn't control Harrenhall and, in any case, it has hardly any lands attached. A few characters wondered why he'd worked so hard for such an empty reward, but then he showed them: he traded it for marriage to Lysa.

It is a mistake to assume he's made his final trade. His position in the Vale is an improvement but, as has been pointed out elsewhere, relatively tenuous. He needs to keep going. The Vale is another stepping stone & he'll leave it behind before he's mired down in a war. He'll leave it behind because he's going to trade up again.

It seems like Sansa will be the vehicle for his next trade. But I think it's a mistake to assume that Sansa is somehow his endgame, or that he's infatuated with her. He's using her, and considering how many secrets she's learned from him, he'll be planning to kill her before he trades again.

Littlefinger, like Varys, faces a different set of risks and rewards than the obvious power players. He doesn't want an army or a defense pact or a host of knights because he survives by slipping under the radar. He aims to appear harmless but useful. That means that if/when he dies, nobody will avenge him. That's the end of his story. But it also gives him the potential to do what Varys has done--to survive and prosper through a succession of kings and dynasties.

I'd like to think that Sansa will end Littlefinger somehow, but I seriously doubt it. She gets a lot smarter and savvier throughout AFFC, but Littlefinger is still running laps around her.

Great analysis. I am still of the mind that Littlefinger's primary motivation is Catelyn/Sansa, but knowing George... you could be right and Littlefinger could have bigger ambitions.

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  • 1 year later...

I admit, I love the the

It seems to me that while Littlefinger's been laughing to himself about how successfully he's manipulated the Vale Lords, he might be in for a rather nasty surprise in TWOW. AFFC ended with Sansa and Sweetrobin descending from the (impossible to assault) Eyrie. The only reason Littlefinger had any power in the Vale in AFFC wasn't because the Vale Lords wanted to honor Lysa's wishes or because they all agreed Littlefinger was the right man for the job---it was because, ever since Lysa's death, Littlefinger was the person who had full physical control over Lord Robert. And given that Lord Robert was in the impregnable Eyrie, there was no way for any of the Vale Lords to militarily wrest Sweetrobin away from Littlefinger's grasp. Well, that changed at the end of AFFC, and it might not be a coincidence that GRRM ended the Vale plot with the descent to the Gates of the Moon---because Sweetrobin is now in a place controlled, not by Littlefinger, but by Lord Nestor Royce, and that plotline might have ended where it did because Lord Nestor's going to make his move in TWOW.

Littlefinger thinks he has Nestor Royce firmly under his control, and that Bronze Yohn is the real danger. He thinks that he's basically won over (or will soon win over) all of the other Lords Declarant---buying up Anya Waynwood's debt, for example. But while Bronze Yohn is a powerful lord, he isn't the Royce who's been ruling the Vale for the past decade and a half. And in a world like Westeros, Anya Waynwood owing Littlefinger money doesn't actually put her under his control, because a pretty obvious way for her to clear out her debt would be to just kill off Littlefinger (so Anya Waynwood gains more from his death than from his continued rulership of the Vale). In AGOT, Catelyn thought to herself that there was no way a Redfort would marry a bastard---yet now we're to believe the heir to the Vale (someone who, given Sweetrobin's physical ailments, stands an excellent chance of ascending to the title) is going to be allowed to marry a bastard? (And not even a king's bastard like Mya, but the bastard daughter of the grandson of a sellsword?) And the Knight of Ninestars shows up at a wedding that Littlefinger brokered . . . just because? My goodness, it's almost as if the Lords Declarant only want Littlefinger to think he's winning them over.

Way back in AGOT, the Blackfish said this of Nestor Royce:



The Blackfish is known for being a rather savvy guy. And when Catelyn meets Nestor, she thinks to herself:



Nestor Royce ruled the Vale for almost a decade and a half, was appointed to that position by Jon Arryn himself, and according to the Blackfish, it was believed by many in the Vale that Lord Nestor should become Lord Protector of the Vale. He's from the lesser branch of House Royce, but he's been wielding political power in the Vale for quite a while---although he held no lands himself, he was not viewed as some petty lordling. Littlefinger tells Sansa that Lysa thought Lord Nestor was "a rock" (not in a good way), but given that Lysa's judgment was clearly terrible, I'd say her disdain was probably a point in Lord Nestor's favor. This is the guy who presents the clearest danger to Littlefinger's position in the Vale, because due to his time ruling the Vale while Jon Arryn was in King's Landing, Lord Nestor is the most obvious candidate for replacing Littlefinger as Lord Protector, and while Littlefinger thinks that he's cleverly neutralized that danger . . . I'm not so sure he has.

We know from AFFC that Littlefinger thinks he's successfully bribed Nestor Royce---that by granting Lord Nestor the Gates of the Moon via his own power as Lord Protector (rather than having Lord Robert sign the grant), that Lord Nestor would have to support Littlefinger's position as Lord Protector or risk losing the Gates. But it seems to me that there's a pretty obvious logical flaw there, given that Lord Nestor himself is an obvious candidate to replace Littlefinger should Littlefinger fall. What, Lord Nestor is going to work to keep a rival candidate in power because if Lord Nestor replaces Littlefinger as Lord Protector, Lord Nestor will . . . somehow . . . lose the Gates of the Moon? In what universe does that make any sense at all?

Presumably, there's a reason the position of Keeper of the Gates of the Moon was never a hereditary position: because the Eyrie is physically uninhabitable during the winter. House Arryn has to descend to the Gates in the winter (House Stark, in contrast, didn't have to head to the Wolf's Den during winter; nor did House Targaryen have to head for Summerhall in any given season), so giving full control of the Gates away to a bannerman is pretty clearly unwise---it's basically begging for a winter coup (once House Arryn has put itself under the control of whoever "owns" the Gates, it's a simple matter to just take them hostage). This danger is especially strong when, as now, Lord Arryn is a child and the "regent" has no actual ties to House Arryn. Once Lord Nestor has the swords which the piece of paper Littlefinger signed allowed him to gather (as Lord Nestor now has the incomes associated with the Gates, he now has the ability to increase his military arsenal), why should Lord Nestor care that Littlefinger signed the paper that allowed him to do so in the first place? As everyone who's encountered Emmon Frey waving around his beloved piece of paper knows, the realities of who controls a place often have little to do with who signed what paper. (And honestly, given that Littlefinger has fewer knights working for him now than Nestor Royce probably had pre-grant, Nestor Royce could probably have taken down Littlefinger once winter came even without that grant, merely in his capacity of Keeper of the Gates of the Moon.)

It seems to me that Littlefinger's attempt to neutralize Lord Nestor was truly stupendously idiotic. There are four things Lord Nestor would need in order to make himself Lord Protector of the Vale: 1) Littlefinger dead or imprisoned, 2) physical custody of Lord Arryn, 3) control of the Gates of the Moon, and 4) the consent of the majority of the other Lords of the Vale. Due to his history (and the Vale Lords' distaste for being ruled over by someone like Littlefinger), he probably already has #4, and due to Littlefinger's idiocy, he retained #3 even after Lysa's death. (And if he has any sense at all, he's been using the income and "legitimacy" from Littlefinger's "grant" to fatten up the garrison at the Gates, a garrison loyal to him and not to Littlefinger---similar to how the High Septon used the royal grant of legitimacy to build up his own army.) Playing along with Littlefinger's games in the autumn was quite smart, because really, the geographical realities of the Vale's climate and the Arryn homes mean that all Lord Nestor really had to do was sit in the Gates and wait for winter to inevitably come, and #1 and #2 would be handed to him on a silver platter. He couldn't storm the Eyrie earlier and take custody of Robert Arryn due to the Eyrie's location, and murdering Littlefinger during one of the times he'd descended on business would have been problematic (he'd still have had to go up to the Eyrie to get control of Sweetrobin, but that could have been a chancy prospect---for all he knew, Littlefinger left behind orders to put Sweetrobin to death in the event Littlefinger should be harmed).

But if Lord Nestor just quietly waits, then everything (and everyone) he needs will literally have to come straight to him, all without him having to lift a finger. At the end of AFFC, Nestor Royce has physical control of Robert Arryn, complete physical control of Lord Robert's home for the forseeable future, physical control over Littlefinger (the garrison at the Gates being loyal to Lord Nestor, not Littlefinger), and probably the support of the Lords Declarant as well. Bronze Yohn made quite a wonderful distraction, all things considered---Littlefinger always saw him as the threat, not Lord Nestor. And I wonder if that might actually have been the plan all along: convince Littlefinger that Nestor Royce is on his side; then, while forcing him to expend all of his energy trying to manipulate the Lords Declarant, Nestor Royce (ignored by Littlefinger) can quietly wait in the Gates. Once winter inevitably comes, Littlefinger and Sweetrobin take up residence at the Gates, and boom---the trap is sprung. Nestor Royce declares himself Lord Protector and either quietly has Littlefinger poisoned or arrests him on some charge and publicly executes him (who's going to object? Littlefinger has no actual friends, no powerful family, and Cersei's got other problems to deal with).

ETA: And actually, that might be where Sansa comes in (because I can't see Littlefinger going down and her playing no part). If Nestor Royce is planning a coup, all she needs to do is go to him and make a deal: she publicly testifies that Littlefinger murdered Lysa and/or Jon Arryn (so the Vale Lords can pretend this is about seeking justice for their murdered liege rather than just grabbing power) and in exchange, she gets, say, passage to Braavos (where "Alayne's" mother is supposedly from). If Sansa decides to head to Jon at the Wall, going via Braavos would be the logical way to go about it (since it would look weird for a woman to seek passage straight to the Wall), and would actually have Sansa directly following in Arya's footsteps.

I admit, I love this theory. And it actually makes a lot of sense, considering that one big theme of George RR Martin's story seems to be how seemingly brilliant schemers see their plans blow up in their face. (Cersei, Tywin, Pyat Pree.) What if Littlefinger has actually been outfoxed, and he is about to feel the wrath of the Vale Lords he tried to manipulate?

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As I discussed in this thread, I think the LF's endgame was to kill both SR and HtH. Then, he would get the full support of the IT and be given the seat of Arryn in his own name by Cersei. Remember the tapestries of Robert? That was a hidden mailed fist shown to the Vale Lords, i.e. if you defy LF, the IT will make new lords.



But that plan was mostly wasted by the too early devastation at KL caused by unexpected motives driving Cersei. The power backing LF will be shortly revealed to be no more. New pretenders are coming to Westeros. Rickon will soon be recovered and it will be much harder to keep Sansa at hand. Varys is pulling the strings actively. In short, LF is f***ed.



I think LF will lose his control and in an act of desperation/madness/whatever, he will try to rape Sansa. Then, Sansa will slay him.


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  • 2 weeks later...

It seems to me that while Littlefinger's been laughing to himself about how successfully he's manipulated the Vale Lords, he might be in for a rather nasty surprise in TWOW. AFFC ended with Sansa and Sweetrobin descending from the (impossible to assault) Eyrie. The only reason Littlefinger had any power in the Vale in AFFC wasn't because the Vale Lords wanted to honor Lysa's wishes or because they all agreed Littlefinger was the right man for the job---it was because, ever since Lysa's death, Littlefinger was the person who had full physical control over Lord Robert. And given that Lord Robert was in the impregnable Eyrie, there was no way for any of the Vale Lords to militarily wrest Sweetrobin away from Littlefinger's grasp. Well, that changed at the end of AFFC, and it might not be a coincidence that GRRM ended the Vale plot with the descent to the Gates of the Moon---because Sweetrobin is now in a place controlled, not by Littlefinger, but by Lord Nestor Royce, and that plotline might have ended where it did because Lord Nestor's going to make his move in TWOW.

Littlefinger thinks he has Nestor Royce firmly under his control, and that Bronze Yohn is the real danger. He thinks that he's basically won over (or will soon win over) all of the other Lords Declarant---buying up Anya Waynwood's debt, for example. But while Bronze Yohn is a powerful lord, he isn't the Royce who's been ruling the Vale for the past decade and a half. And in a world like Westeros, Anya Waynwood owing Littlefinger money doesn't actually put her under his control, because a pretty obvious way for her to clear out her debt would be to just kill off Littlefinger (so Anya Waynwood gains more from his death than from his continued rulership of the Vale). In AGOT, Catelyn thought to herself that there was no way a Redfort would marry a bastard---yet now we're to believe the heir to the Vale (someone who, given Sweetrobin's physical ailments, stands an excellent chance of ascending to the title) is going to be allowed to marry a bastard? (And not even a king's bastard like Mya, but the bastard daughter of the grandson of a sellsword?) And the Knight of Ninestars shows up at a wedding that Littlefinger brokered . . . just because? My goodness, it's almost as if the Lords Declarant only want Littlefinger to think he's winning them over.

Way back in AGOT, the Blackfish said this of Nestor Royce:

The Blackfish is known for being a rather savvy guy. And when Catelyn meets Nestor, she thinks to herself:

Nestor Royce ruled the Vale for almost a decade and a half, was appointed to that position by Jon Arryn himself, and according to the Blackfish, it was believed by many in the Vale that Lord Nestor should become Lord Protector of the Vale. He's from the lesser branch of House Royce, but he's been wielding political power in the Vale for quite a while---although he held no lands himself, he was not viewed as some petty lordling. Littlefinger tells Sansa that Lysa thought Lord Nestor was "a rock" (not in a good way), but given that Lysa's judgment was clearly terrible, I'd say her disdain was probably a point in Lord Nestor's favor. This is the guy who presents the clearest danger to Littlefinger's position in the Vale, because due to his time ruling the Vale while Jon Arryn was in King's Landing, Lord Nestor is the most obvious candidate for replacing Littlefinger as Lord Protector, and while Littlefinger thinks that he's cleverly neutralized that danger . . . I'm not so sure he has.

We know from AFFC that Littlefinger thinks he's successfully bribed Nestor Royce---that by granting Lord Nestor the Gates of the Moon via his own power as Lord Protector (rather than having Lord Robert sign the grant), that Lord Nestor would have to support Littlefinger's position as Lord Protector or risk losing the Gates. But it seems to me that there's a pretty obvious logical flaw there, given that Lord Nestor himself is an obvious candidate to replace Littlefinger should Littlefinger fall. What, Lord Nestor is going to work to keep a rival candidate in power because if Lord Nestor replaces Littlefinger as Lord Protector, Lord Nestor will . . . somehow . . . lose the Gates of the Moon? In what universe does that make any sense at all?

Presumably, there's a reason the position of Keeper of the Gates of the Moon was never a hereditary position: because the Eyrie is physically uninhabitable during the winter. House Arryn has to descend to the Gates in the winter (House Stark, in contrast, didn't have to head to the Wolf's Den during winter; nor did House Targaryen have to head for Summerhall in any given season), so giving full control of the Gates away to a bannerman is pretty clearly unwise---it's basically begging for a winter coup (once House Arryn has put itself under the control of whoever "owns" the Gates, it's a simple matter to just take them hostage). This danger is especially strong when, as now, Lord Arryn is a child and the "regent" has no actual ties to House Arryn. Once Lord Nestor has the swords which the piece of paper Littlefinger signed allowed him to gather (as Lord Nestor now has the incomes associated with the Gates, he now has the ability to increase his military arsenal), why should Lord Nestor care that Littlefinger signed the paper that allowed him to do so in the first place? As everyone who's encountered Emmon Frey waving around his beloved piece of paper knows, the realities of who controls a place often have little to do with who signed what paper. (And honestly, given that Littlefinger has fewer knights working for him now than Nestor Royce probably had pre-grant, Nestor Royce could probably have taken down Littlefinger once winter came even without that grant, merely in his capacity of Keeper of the Gates of the Moon.)

It seems to me that Littlefinger's attempt to neutralize Lord Nestor was truly stupendously idiotic. There are four things Lord Nestor would need in order to make himself Lord Protector of the Vale: 1) Littlefinger dead or imprisoned, 2) physical custody of Lord Arryn, 3) control of the Gates of the Moon, and 4) the consent of the majority of the other Lords of the Vale. Due to his history (and the Vale Lords' distaste for being ruled over by someone like Littlefinger), he probably already has #4, and due to Littlefinger's idiocy, he retained #3 even after Lysa's death. (And if he has any sense at all, he's been using the income and "legitimacy" from Littlefinger's "grant" to fatten up the garrison at the Gates, a garrison loyal to him and not to Littlefinger---similar to how the High Septon used the royal grant of legitimacy to build up his own army.) Playing along with Littlefinger's games in the autumn was quite smart, because really, the geographical realities of the Vale's climate and the Arryn homes mean that all Lord Nestor really had to do was sit in the Gates and wait for winter to inevitably come, and #1 and #2 would be handed to him on a silver platter. He couldn't storm the Eyrie earlier and take custody of Robert Arryn due to the Eyrie's location, and murdering Littlefinger during one of the times he'd descended on business would have been problematic (he'd still have had to go up to the Eyrie to get control of Sweetrobin, but that could have been a chancy prospect---for all he knew, Littlefinger left behind orders to put Sweetrobin to death in the event Littlefinger should be harmed).

But if Lord Nestor just quietly waits, then everything (and everyone) he needs will literally have to come straight to him, all without him having to lift a finger. At the end of AFFC, Nestor Royce has physical control of Robert Arryn, complete physical control of Lord Robert's home for the forseeable future, physical control over Littlefinger (the garrison at the Gates being loyal to Lord Nestor, not Littlefinger), and probably the support of the Lords Declarant as well. Bronze Yohn made quite a wonderful distraction, all things considered---Littlefinger always saw him as the threat, not Lord Nestor. And I wonder if that might actually have been the plan all along: convince Littlefinger that Nestor Royce is on his side; then, while forcing him to expend all of his energy trying to manipulate the Lords Declarant, Nestor Royce (ignored by Littlefinger) can quietly wait in the Gates. Once winter inevitably comes, Littlefinger and Sweetrobin take up residence at the Gates, and boom---the trap is sprung. Nestor Royce declares himself Lord Protector and either quietly has Littlefinger poisoned or arrests him on some charge and publicly executes him (who's going to object? Littlefinger has no actual friends, no powerful family, and Cersei's got other problems to deal with).

ETA: And actually, that might be where Sansa comes in (because I can't see Littlefinger going down and her playing no part). If Nestor Royce is planning a coup, all she needs to do is go to him and make a deal: she publicly testifies that Littlefinger murdered Lysa and/or Jon Arryn (so the Vale Lords can pretend this is about seeking justice for their murdered liege rather than just grabbing power) and in exchange, she gets, say, passage to Braavos (where "Alayne's" mother is supposedly from). If Sansa decides to head to Jon at the Wall, going via Braavos would be the logical way to go about it (since it would look weird for a woman to seek passage straight to the Wall), and would actually have Sansa directly following in Arya's footsteps.

What did Catelyn say about Littlefinger in AGoT: that being clever and being wise is not the same thing? I've always had a feeling that Lyn Corbray was playing both sides of the street--he knew Littlefinger knew his weaknesses--a need for money and sexual gratification. And Littlefinger thought he could get him on those terms. So what if Corbray is the Royces' mole in Littlefinger's garden? Notice how Corbray pulls out his sword just as Bronze Yohn asks Sansa if they have ever met before? Corbray was there when Catelyn brought Tyrion to the Eyrie... and Sansa looks a lot like her, brown hair dye or not.

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I admit, I love the the

I admit, I love this theory. And it actually makes a lot of sense, considering that one big theme of George RR Martin's story seems to be how seemingly brilliant schemers see their plans blow up in their face. (Cersei, Tywin, Pyat Pree.) What if Littlefinger has actually been outfoxed, and he is about to feel the wrath of the Vale Lords he tried to manipulate?

The problem with this theory is that it's predicated on the fact that Littlefinger who went toe to toe with Varys in Kings Landing , started the War of Five Kings and managed to walk out of Kings Landing with Harrenhall and the title of Lord Paramount of the Riverlands with nobody , besides perhaps Varys, having a clue all that he had done and now he is going to just walk into a trap at the Gates of the Moon. Littlefinger was born a Lord of the Vale and he spent years working in the Vale after getting kicked out of Riverrun . He knows what giving Nestor the Gates of the Moon would mean for him so clearly he has a plan for dealing with him.

Also the fact that Nestor was Steward for years does not automatically make him the Lord Protector after Littlefinger. There would be a lot of lords looking for that title and the fact that Nestor is Lord of the Gates of the Moon would make it less likely for him to be given the Lord Protector title. Him not having any land made him a perfect canidate for Steward but now that he has the Gates of the Moon the other lords would worry that he may become to powerful for them.

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I admit, I love the the

I admit, I love this theory. And it actually makes a lot of sense, considering that one big theme of George RR Martin's story seems to be how seemingly brilliant schemers see their plans blow up in their face. (Cersei, Tywin, Pyat Pree.) What if Littlefinger has actually been outfoxed, and he is about to feel the wrath of the Vale Lords he tried to manipulate?

Littlefinger is far too brilliant to be brought down by that. From Sansa in AFFC

Do you understand what happened here,

Alayne?” Sansa hesitated a moment. “You gave Lord Nestor the Gates of the Moon to be certain of his

support.” "I did,” Petyr admitted, “but our rock is a Royce, which is to say he is overproud and prickly. Had I asked him his price, he would have swelled up like an angry toad at the slight upon his honor. But this way... the man is not utterly stupid, but the lies I served him were sweeter than the truth. He wants to believe that Lysa valued him above her other bannermen. One of those others is Bronze Yohn, after all, and Nestor is very much aware that he was born of the lesser

branch of House Royce. He wants more for his son. Men of honor will do things for their

children that they would never consider doing for themselves.” She nodded. “The signature... you might have had Lord Robert put his hand and seal to it, but

instead...” “... I signed myself, as Lord Protector. Why?” “So... if you are removed, or... or killed...”

“... Lord Nestor’s claim to the Gates will suddenly be called into question. I promise you, that is

not lost on him. It was clever of you to see it. Though no more than I’d expect of mine own

daughter.”

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The problem with this theory is that it's predicated on the fact that Littlefinger who went toe to toe with Varys in Kings Landing , started the War of Five Kings and managed to walk out of Kings Landing with Harrenhall and the title of Lord Paramount of the Riverlands with nobody , besides perhaps Varys, having a clue all that he had done and now he is going to just walk into a trap at the Gates of the Moon. Littlefinger was born a Lord of the Vale and he spent years working in the Vale after getting kicked out of Riverrun . He knows what giving Nestor the Gates of the Moon would mean for him so clearly he has a plan for dealing with him.

Also the fact that Nestor was Steward for years does not automatically make him the Lord Protector after Littlefinger. There would be a lot of lords looking for that title and the fact that Nestor is Lord of the Gates of the Moon would make it less likely for him to be given the Lord Protector title. Him not having any land made him a perfect canidate for Steward but now that he has the Gates of the Moon the other lords would worry that he may become to powerful for them.

Tyrion figured it out too, but that's besides the point. LF is getting clumsy in his desire to impress Sansa with cunning schemes. I think that's his biggest mistake.

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Tyrion figured it out too, but that's besides the point. LF is getting clumsy in his desire to impress Sansa with cunning schemes. I think that's his biggest mistake.

is he getting clumsy? or is he telling Sansa what she needs to hear to keep her in line?

It's not like he's locking Sansa away in a tower. He has her out there for all the world to see and because of that he needs to have her on the right page or she will tell everybody who she is and ruin his plans. Instead of being clumsy , I think he is carefully setting her up and putting his long term plan in motion.

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Re-reading the last half of Storm of Swords, Littlefinger's interactions with the Baelish family servants are ringing all kinds of alarm bells that I never noticed before. It's always been clear that Petyr has a real chip on his shoulder about his family's less-than-stellar holdings, but holy shit, does it ever come out in full force when they get to the Fingers. There are some very interesting things in this scene that bear looking at closely:



"So silent, my lady?" said Petyr. "I was certain you would wish to give me your blessing. It is a rare thing for a boy born heir to stones and sheep pellets to wed the daughter of Hoster Tully and the widow of Jon Arryn."



….When they recognized Lord Petyr they knelt on the rocks. "My household," he said. "I don't know the child. Another of Kella's bastards, I suppose. She pops one out every few years."



"It is good to have you home, my lord," said one old man. He looked to be at least eighty, but he wore a studded brigantine and a longsword at his side. "How long will you be in residence?"



"As short a time as possible, Bryen, have no fear. Is the place habitable just now, would you say?"



"If we knew you was coming we would have laid down fresh rushes, m'lord," said the crone. "There's a dung fire burning."



"Nothing says home like the smell of burning dung." Petyr turned to Sansa. "Grisel was my wet nurse, but she keeps my castle now. Umfred's my steward, and Bryen - didn't I name you captain of the guard the last time I was here?"



"You did, my lord. You said you'd be getting some more men, too, but you never did. Me and the dogs stand all the watches."



"And very well, I'm sure. No one has made off with any of my rocks or sheep pellets, I see that plainly."



…"Ah, cold salt mutton. I must be home. When I break my fast on gulls' eggs and seaweed soup, I'll be certain of it."



"If you like, m'lord," said the old woman Grisel.



Lord Petyr made a face. "Come, let's see if my hall is as dreary as I recall."



…The servants lived and slept in the kitchen at ground level, sharing the space with a huge brindled mastiff and a half-dozen sheep-dogs. (A Storm of Swords, p. 929-931, 2000).




We just got a massive amount of insight into Petyr Baelish's life from this homecoming description. First of all, it's obvious that Petyr wants praise from Sansa - and by extension, Catelyn - for rising so far above his station, and he has no qualms about flat out asking for it like a creepy, insecure jerk.



Then, the conversation with the Baelish servants shows that not only did Petyr not let the door hit him in the ass when he left the Fingers for Kings' Landing, he feels the need to be a condescending dick to Kella, Grisel and Bryen, some of whom literally raised him. From talking shit on his childhood cuisine to casually letting Sansa know that Kella is a big old slut (even if she cheerfully admits to it herself), he does everything he can to distance himself from whence he came. The thing that pops out to me the most is his blithe dismissal of Bryen's remark that he promised to send him men for keeping watch, but never followed through on it. Bryen addresses Petyr as "my lord," not the more colloquial "M'lord," and carries a longsword, so clearly he's not the lowest of the lowborn - but to Petyr, he's just the help. And what the help wants doesn't matter to him. They even sleep with the dogs that serve as watchmen for Bryen (and since we all know what the presence of dogs means in Sansa's chapters, I'll just leave that be).



My point is, this striking scene indicates that, while Sansa is almost certainly going to be instrumental in undoing Littlefinger, it's the "little people" who will have a hand in his destruction in a very poignant way. Littlefinger is quick to tell Sansa that sometimes pieces in the game have a mind of their own, but I don't think he fully grasps that the people who brought him up, the ones he doesn't even think are on the board, may just stage an upset.



tl;dr - Baelish is getting too big for his britches and will soon eat some humble gulls' eggs.

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is he getting clumsy? or is he telling Sansa what she needs to hear to keep her in line?

It's not like he's locking Sansa away in a tower. He has her out there for all the world to see and because of that he needs to have her on the right page or she will tell everybody who she is and ruin his plans. Instead of being clumsy , I think he is carefully setting her up and putting his long term plan in motion.

Yeah. He seems clumsy. In truth, there's not much stopping Sansa from telling people what he's up to at this point. He told her that he plans to kill SR and have her married to Harry, but what real proof does he have that she'd go along with it? How does he know she won't reveal it to the Vale Lords in TWoW?

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