Grand Tyrell Conspiracy Theory

[Ealasaid]

Which gets back to my original claim that Marge's hymen is still intact, thus proving Osneys accusations false, thus the motive to torture Osney.

I think Marge faked being a prisoner to trap Cersei.

[Arbor Gold]

I've always wondered...why no Tyrell POV in AffC?

We get introduced to many other POV's in this book, but the Tyrells are conspicuously absent. Is it because they are boring and not really worth bothering with?

Or is it because, in AffC, they are controlling the action in King's Landing and GRRM does not want to let us in on all their plotting? GRRM has made it well known that we won't have POV's from characters who know too much (Varys, Reed, Littlefinger, ect).

We might hear from the Tyrells later on, but right now are they so in control that their knowledge would spoil things for us?

For example, a Marge POV (or even one of her maids) could put a rest to this whole hymen debate.

It could go something like this:

Marge: Gods, I am totally dreading that series of pelvic exams today.

Maid: Yeah, that really sucks.

Marge: I wish I didn't love horseback riding so much. It probably tore my hymen, but everybody will think that I screwed my gay first husband or my 8-year old third husband instead.

Maid: Yeah, you could be in trouble.

Marge: No, it's cool...we've got a plan.

While I disagree with some of the details of MJS's long (and very well argued!) post, I do feel that the heart of the argument is quite valid, that the Tyrells are pulling the strings in King's Landing in book 4.

On a side note, this thread has been awesome to read...I had a slow afternoon at work yesterday and was sucked into the entire thing. Bravo!

[Loras]

Firstly, this is an excellent post and a very good argument. I agree with the basic idea but there are some things that I disagree with:

1.) i)I believe that Loras did go to Dragonstone in order to hasten the defense of the Reach against Euron and his fleet. I don't believe that the Tyrell's would have had sufficient time to use Dragonstone as an excuse, there just wasn't enough time elapsing between the Ironborn attack and Loras' heroic act. I also believe that Loras had a very small part in the Grand Tyrell Conspiracy. He isn't a particularly adept plotter and is impetuous.

However I would go as far as to say that The Queen Of Thorns has been plotting the Tyrell Takeover since 'A Game Of Thrones'. I think it was her who suggested to Loras to present the picture of Marge to both Renly and Ned.

In my opinion we should have had either Taena or Marge PoV chapters in AFFC, Cersei was good but she couldn't see who was lying and who was telling the truth - which was a MAJOR theme of book 4.

[BerryHarryBear]

Firstly, this is an excellent post and a very good argument. I agree with the basic idea but there are some things that I disagree with:

1.) i)I believe that Loras did go to Dragonstone in order to hasten the defense of the Reach against Euron and his fleet. I don't believe that the Tyrell's would have had sufficient time to use Dragonstone as an excuse, there just wasn't enough time elapsing between the Ironborn attack and Loras' heroic act. I also believe that Loras had a very small part in the Grand Tyrell Conspiracy. He isn't a particularly adept plotter and is impetuous.

However I would go as far as to say that The Queen Of Thorns has been plotting the Tyrell Takeover since 'A Game Of Thrones'. I think it was her who suggested to Loras to present the picture of Marge to both Renly and Ned.

In my opinion we should have had either Taena or Marge PoV chapters in AFFC, Cersei was good but she couldn't see who was lying and who was telling the truth - which was a MAJOR theme of book 4.

[Devil Hanzo]

Long post...long thread.

One thing it confirms though....loras and olenna and all of them give so many potential POV to play with.

[poffo Stark]

well, long indeed, but as i wrote already i like this idea. not means i think everything written here is necessarily true, but surely i would love to have a Tyrrell pov sometime!

[Michael Jon Snow]

BHB

That is one down fall. But I don't think that they ever anticipated Cersei being arrested and locked up the way she was until the very last minute. I think that until Marge went to the Great Sept on Maiden's day, the plan was just to embarrass Cersei by getting her to make an provably false and petty accusation against Marge. This would diminish Cerseis political clout and perhaps get her replaced as Regent.

I think their goal was simply to have her replaced as Regent.

I think that when Osney confessed to the adultery and murder, Marge found herself in a different predicament than she was expecting. I think she agreed to help the septon trap Cersi because she didn't have the opportunity to consider the consequence you raise, she was a little over-eager to really bring down Cersei, and she wanted to improve the relationship between the Church and the Tyrells.

[BerryHarryBear]

mjs

That seems to be the only way that it would make sense. I don't think that Cersei would confess, but one can not be totally sure. Osney was real stupid for confessing everything, it is obviously only going to make things worse for him. Before he had a way out - Cersei, by bringing her down he has ruined any chance of coming out of this.

One factor is how much would they dare to torture a Queen? The HS dares a lot already for someone new to power. Most people would grow their power base before sticking their heads out their. This HS does not seem to know the word Moderation.

[poffo Stark]

well, you know fanatics are fanatics for a reason!

i'm very cuorious how this whole situation will evolve. both Cersei and the Tyrrells have highly underrated the church power and potential. the church and the HS are not a tool to be used, rather a beast unleashed.

i think they will torture Cersei at least a bit, maybe psychologically. but whoever gets in power will have to deal with the church

[Weirwood_Grin]

In one of the Alayne chapters, Littlefinger betrays his surprise at just how efficiently Cersei can fuck things up. He hints that he had plans that would have taken longer to culminate, but that he "thrives on chaos". Then, he mentions three queens. These queens would have to be either Cersei, Margaery, and Daenerys, or Cersei, Margaery, and Olenna, the Queen of Thorns. I believe he's referring to Olenna over Daenerys, because he is backing Sansa Stark as the heir to winterfell. Had he something in the works with Varys/Illyrio Mopatis to restore Daenerys, he would not be found abed with a Stark, whom Daenerys means to crush with the rest of the "usurper's dogs". It seems far more likely that he refers to Lady Olenna, who is cast as the Tyrell mastermind. It would not surprise me if LF had brokered a deal with the Tyrells to 1)defeat Stannis on the Blackwater and 2) help Cersei to dig her grave. This would leave the Tyrells with sole influence over Tommen, and therefore the throne, for which they may have agreed to give LF the north.

Btw. Lady Olenna is awesome, mostly for her twin bodyguards named Left and Right.

[Montrovant]

As for the three queens. Marge and Cersei are quite obvious. Dany not very plausible yet, even though LF knows a lot. Olenna is certainly a possibility, but I'd rather think that he refers to Myrcella and the (failed) plot to crown her according to the Dornish law. That plot reeks of LFs meddling.

[Michael Jon Snow]

Not exacly related to the thread, but that is an interesting insight,

My take is that GRRM was talking to the readers in that passage with LFs voice. I think the 3 Queens comment was a forshadowing of how the series will progress. I think that by the end of ADWD or early WoW there will be three contenders for the iron throne, all women.

My guess is Sansa, Dany and whomever survives the Cersei/Marge situation. Just my guess. Nothing much to back it up.

[Tyrion's Song]

Not exacly related to the thread, but that is an interesting insight,

My take is that GRRM was talking to the readers in that passage with LFs voice. I think the 3 Queens comment was a forshadowing of how the series will progress. I think that by the end of ADWD or early WoW there will be three contenders for the iron throne, all women.

My guess is Sansa, Dany and whomever survives the Cersei/Marge situation. Just my guess. Nothing much to back it up.

[arya_underfoot]

it does not appear that the new church is under anyone's control. they seem pretty serious about their agenda of purification etc...besides, marg's state when visited by cersei is hardly concordant with the church being puupets for house tyrell. also mace abandoned the siege of storms end to rush back to kl.

also aurane's flight from kl does not fit with his supposed alliance with the tyrells. he's got something else on his mind- dany, stannis, piracy, who knows.....

i dont doubt that there is some sort of tyrell conspiracy in place, orchestrated by olenna no doubt, with the aim of reducing cersei's power. but i thought that the main thrust would be military. with the stormlords and the riverlords severely depleted, and the vale and dorne remaining aloof of the conflict, the two major armies of westeros are those belonging to the tyrells and the lannisters. i think the tyrells were shaping up towards some sort of showdown with the lannisters for supremacy amongst the southron kingdoms, but of course, the invasion of the squids must've put those thoughts out of the tyrell's minds.

[snake]

I haven't read all the thread so if I'm restating something that was mentioned aerlier I beg your pardons.

First off I'd like to say that I firmly believe that Maergerys maidenhead is broken. This igh Septon is not a man to be controlled by anyone as is easy to see. He's very, very smart and very, very humble. It's well within the realm of reason that he would whip Ser Osney for his crimes. He believes in mercy in the afterlife but punishment for sins in this life. So Maergery is in a pickle, as is Cersei, and how they'll get out do not know. Perhaps Maces army will make the High Septon reconsider.

As for Taena. Why let her go? She knew enough to condemn Cersei and exonerate Maegery. And Lord Qyburn, who is loyal to Cersei, tells her of what has happened so he's not lying. The proof for this would be the fact that he got Cersei's letter to the Kingslayer.

I also believe that Ser Loras is seriously injured. It happens all the time as GRRM once said so it's very possible that Waters was telling Cersei the truth. And Qyburn does not know where Waters went so I somehow doubt he's in lague with the Tyrells.

And there is the Blue Bard. He's still singing the same song about Maergery and that does not bode well for her.

If this was some large Tyrell plot then they screwed up royally.

[Blackstone]

After having read everything and reread the books, here's where I come down:

There is clearly a Tyrell conspiracy and clearly their trap has sprung on Cersei. Taena is the only certain Tyrell operative, but Aurane Waters is another possible operative. Its not necessary for Aurane Waters to have been bought by the Tyrell's, they could have merely rented him. In any event, his escape from King's Landing (and therefore questioning later) after delivering Cersei the news that would ultimately doom her is highly suspicous.

None of this requires or rules out Loras being near death or perfectly hale. None of this requires or rules out Margery being "broken." None of this requires conspiratorial participation on the part of the High Septon.

If Margarey is "whole," then it seems likely that she will eventually be released by the High Septon -- as this is incontroverible evidence of her chastity. If she is "whole," the Moon Tea testimony of the Maester can be easily explained as requesting it for someone else.

If Margarey is "broken," then it seems likely that she is caught in the Tyrell's own trap with Cersei. The High Septon is a peice on the board, but as Littlefinger warns us even the lowliest peices can have wills of their own. The High Septon is far from a lowly peice. In this case, Margarey will need a champion to defend her.

Now, Loras's health comes into play.

If Loras is not seriously injured, it behooves the Tyrell's from revealing him until Cersei has chosen her champion, or hoping that Cersei's trial comes first. Otherwise, its highly likely -- given Loras' demonstrated prowess that his sword could free Cersei and also Margarey. I would think that it would be easy to hide the extent of someone's injury in such a battle. You can be covered in blood and look terrible, but it of course could be someone else's blood (see Robb after the Whispering Wood). If "injured" a person like Loras would recouperate in his own pavillion and access to him would be strictly limited.

If Loras is seriously injured, then Margarey could be in deep trouble, as none of the other Kingsguard is particularly capable -- at least of those on the scene. One can even see Cersei escaping but Margarey not escaping. Now the Tyrell's have no reason to support the Lannisters and no chance of gaining a share of the crown for themselves, except by marrying Willas to Myrcella (who happens to be a hostage in Dorne).

[snake]

Why let Taena go if she was in on the whole thing? Her testimony would be of the utmost importance. She could exonerate Maergery by testifying that the tales told against her were made up by Cersei in order to bring her down. To let her go would be pointless.

And besides, once Ser Kevan claims the regency he will be the one in control, not the Tyrells, unless of course your thinking Ser Kevan was bought but the Tyrells as well. Or are you saying the main reason for this whole "scheme" was to bring about the fall of Cersei?

[Whitebull]

This reminds me of that big old conspiracy theory on the old boards.

What was it called? I can't remember, but I want to say it had the word grand in it's title :)

I believe it was mostly invalidated by CoK.

[snake]

Grand Unified Conspiracy Theory(GUCT for short) was it's name and Ran it's author.

[Smudge]

I really dont have the energy to read all ten pages of this thread so i thought i'd just ask. What's the go with the coin they discovered down in the black cells after Tyrion escaped?

There's some really interesting theories here aswell but i'm not sure about the whole thing with Loras. Cersei was told by Waters that he was doused in oil or whatever but surely a raven would have been sent from Dragonstone with details of the full extent of his injuries?