Jump to content

Grand Tyrell Conspiracy Theory


Recommended Posts

Mormont took raven cages because he was venturing out into the wilderness, where there are no maesters or rookeries. The only way to send ravens from somewhere like that is to bring them yourself. This is not the case with war in Westeros itself; we don't ever see any of armies bring raven cages along because it's assumed that they can send ravens from whichever castles they capture or stop at as guests or allies. Only that wouldn't be possible at Dragonstone, since Stannis had already sent all 117 of the Dragonstone ravens out with his twincest announcement, but the Tyrells wouldn't necessarily have thought of that.

This post is over a year old, but I just read it a few days ago and wanted to highlight it because there's something unusual about it: it changed my mind about a theory that I was pretty fond of. I put a lot of stock into the fact that news of Dragonstone's fall hadn't reached the Eyrie for no reason that I could think of; but it now appears to be a very subtle bit of continuity. Good point, OiL.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

How were they duplicitous during Robert's Rebellion? They stood by the rightful king until his army was defeated and he was killed. That seems to me like they fulfilled their obligations.

When Highgarden raises as many men to support Renly's claim as Rhaegar and Robert brought to the Battle of the Trident combined, it's clear they did no such thing. They offerred just enough support for Targaryen reign to last just long enough for them to seize Storm's End. At least, that was obviously the plan. Three things had to go wrong for it not to work: Stannis's obstinency, Davos Seaworth's aid, and Tywin Lannister's sacking of King's Landing which meant Robert did not have to lay siege to the city.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We don't know if there were not many Reach men among Connington's or Rhaegar's men. In fact, as GRRM confirmed that Rhaegar had the greater army at the Trident, I'm pretty sure not all available Reach men were with Mace at Storm's End. But a pretty big contingent was there. Storm's End was not easy to besiege.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

After carefully reading the entire original post, my first thought was that Aurane tells Cersei about Loras and the fall of Dragonstone. How else could she receive this information? Via raven, of course. And who controls the ravens in the Red Keep? Pycelle. And Cersei has been an a-hole to him recently. Furthermore, we know that at the end of aFfC, Pycelle (along with Harys Swyft) has sent a raven to Kevan to assume the regency. I think Pycelle wanted to take Cersei down. Not necessarily the Lannisters, but Cersei. If he was approached by a member of the Tyrell crew with this plan, I think he would agree to it. All he needs to agree to do is withhold any information coming from Dragonstone. He is not an ACTIVE member of the conspiracy, merely passive. Aurane steps in, fills Cersei full of this false Loras info, and Pycelle doesn't need to know much of, or participate in, the grander scheme. If it fails and Cersei is not imprisoned/removed from power, he can merely claim he never received a raven, which is highly plausible. His hands are virtually clean.

He might also have been supplying Moon Tea to Marge, for someone else. He is, of course, never allowed to finish his sentence while talking to Cersei.

I don't know, there definitely is something going on in the Tyrell camp; Taena is a spy. And the whole Loras/Dragonstone thing too easily fell into Cersei's fingers. And whenever something easily falls into her designs, it would be safe to assume it's because someone else designed it. Anyway, I like this theory. It might not be right in every aspect, but there is definitely some truth in it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here is what George had to say about the Tyrell involvement in the war. No hint of duplicity there. The Tyrells were playing an important role in besieging Storm's End, they had already fought on a number of fronts and, presumably, were keeping back forces to defend the Reach if Robert decided to strike at them as a way of trying to force them to pull back their forces from Storm's End and Rhaegar's host.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 5 months later...

The OP was great reading.

I do think the Tyrells had a couple of lucky breaks that they couldn't have predicted, Jaime and Cersei's estrangement being one of the big ones (it made her much more amenable to Taena's companionship, IMO).

The Faith and the Sparrow High Septon were the wild cards in the whole situation. The original Tyrell plan might have been

1. Bait Cersei into making her move against Margaery;

2. Get Tyrell forces back to King's Landing, enough that they could potentially take the city if necessary;

3. Have Margaery freed by trial, Trial by Combat if necessary (and the Tyrells probably figured it was necessary, considering how well Cersei pulled together the trial against Tyrion);

4. Use a combination of the outrage from the false accusation, plus the presence of Tyrell forces in the city (I assume by now that Lannister forces under Ser Kevan have likely made it back), to reach an "agreement" that involves Cersei losing her Queen-Regent status and being forced into isolation at Casterly Rock.

End Result: Margaery and Tommen are still queen and king, and Ser Kevan (someone the Tyrells can work with) is regent.

The Re-Armed Faith and Sparrow High Septon changed that. Instead of the trial being a matter between the Throne, the Tyrells, and House Lannister, the Faith is now deeply involved. And instead of Cersei being forced out of power, it's quite possible that she'll be brought down completely due to her own foul-up in making her move (sending Osney to the High Septon was her biggest mistake).

I read only the OP, but I must say that Taena gave me the spyvibe too.

I think she was an attempt by the Tyrells to get someone close to Cersei after Joffrey's death, so that they would have an eye on her in King's Landing to help Margaery. They were probably hoping that Cersei would see possible advantage (an ambitious Tyrell underling to subvert), as well as a kindred spirit (mother with young son, who could possibly be play-mates with future King Tommen). It was also part of their overall strategy of being very supportive to the efforts to convict Tyrion of Joffrey's murder (as a way of covering up their role in it).

Of course, they didn't know (at first) that Jaime and Cersei had become estranged, and the strategy to plant Taena succeeded beyond all their wildest hopes. Taena ended up becoming Cersei's confidante, companion, conspirator, and even possibly lover if Cersei had decided to continue with the whole "plumbing the Myrish Swamp" routine at night.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The major flaw in the OP is that it required the Septons to lie. This new High Septon is trying to scour all sin from Westeros I doubt there is anything the Tyrell's could do to make him lie. Wise Bass is spot on with their analyse the High Septon is the proverbial wrench in their plans.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The major flaw in the OP is that it required the Septons to lie. This new High Septon is trying to scour all sin from Westeros I doubt there is anything the Tyrell's could do to make him lie. Wise Bass is spot on with their analyse the High Septon is the proverbial wrench in their plans.

I don't think the High Septon was lying, either, although I do think he set a trap for Cersei once Osney Kettleblack broke down under torture.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 4 months later...

This was one of the best threads I have read, even though it was really long! I agree with the OP on all major points. It was really well done and well put together and makes an awful lot of sense. I wonder how Margaery's trial will go and what sort of information will be revealed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think there is a conspiracy to the extent that Taena is a Tyrell spy. It would certainly surprise me if Margaery was foolish enough to let any real secrets leak out through Taena Merryweather so easily when it was known to all the court how close a confidant she was to Cersei.

But the conspiracy theory in the OP overextends rather spectacularly by trying to fill in far too many gaps with heedless speculation. Good as the Queen of Thorns might be at intrigue, this plot pretty much assumes that they're able to predict all the different angles. It even suggests that Loras was sent away so that Cersei would not call on him to be her champion in a trial by combat. Frankly if they were in the know as the theory suggests they were, they'd know that Cersei would choose Jaime as her champion, and not ever Loras.

Then the OP also pretty much constructs a whole devious, manipulative side of the High Septon and his servants not even hinted at in the text.

That's not to say that they didn't play a part in her downfall though. I just don't think it would have unfolded in quite the way described in the OP

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think there is a conspiracy to the extent that Taena is a Tyrell spy. It would certainly surprise me if Margaery was foolish enough to let any real secrets leak out through Taena Merryweather so easily when it was known to all the court how close a confidant she was to Cersei.

But the conspiracy theory in the OP overextends rather spectacularly by trying to fill in far too many gaps with heedless speculation. Good as the Queen of Thorns might be at intrigue, this plot pretty much assumes that they're able to predict all the different angles. It even suggests that Loras was sent away so that Cersei would not call on him to be her champion in a trial by combat. Frankly if they were in the know as the theory suggests they were, they'd know that Cersei would choose Jaime as her champion, and not ever Loras.

Then the OP also pretty much constructs a whole devious, manipulative side of the High Septon and his servants not even hinted at in the text.

That's not to say that they didn't play a part in her downfall though. I just don't think it would have unfolded in quite the way described in the OP

Ah but Jaime has only one hand, they might have deduced that without his sword hand he was not much of a fighter anymore or Ser Adam might have gotten drunk and mentioned that he had beaten Jaime bloody at practice.

However, what really convinces me that there was a conspiracy of sorts is the fact that Margaery goes to Pycelle to ask for moontea when she already has a maester of her own. We realize that she has a maester when she says she will send him to tend to Loras after he was burned at Dragonstone. I have to wonder why she would go to Pycelle unless she wants Cersei to think that she needs moontea. Everybody has figured out by now that Pycelle is a Lannister man.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

good conspiracy theory, but I believe a good deal of it was actually Littlefinger not just the tyrells. as I mentioned in a different post there's an obscure reference to the high septon being a catspaw (or atleast helped along) by littlefinger. I also think that at the moment LF is working with the tyrells.

Great point. LF is definitely in on this. He helped with the whole Dontos escape and Asshai amethyst poisoning, but he needed grandma to drop the "jewel" in the cup at the right time to get Joff but not Margery. And LF has plans w/in plans. There is no guessing what he ultimately expects to gain.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 weeks later...

However, what really convinces me that there was a conspiracy of sorts is the fact that Margaery goes to Pycelle to ask for moontea when she already has a maester of her own. We realize that she has a maester when she says she will send him to tend to Loras after he was burned at Dragonstone. I have to wonder why she would go to Pycelle unless she wants Cersei to think that she needs moontea. Everybody has figured out by now that Pycelle is a Lannister man.

As far as I can deduce, there would be only two reasons Margaery would ask Pycelle for moontea in place of her own maester:

1. She is trying to bandy it about to Cersei, through Pycelle, that she requires moon tea.

2. She went to someone else as to not go to her maester who might bandy about the information to her family, who require her to be a maiden otherwise they're not keeping their end of the deal up.

Mulling over these options considering Marge's personality/influences, I suspect Option #1 is the truer one. Margaery to me seems to be her grandmother's protegee, and not the type to be having affairs and risk breaking her maidenhood when it's something that she needs. GRANTED, there's the possibility that she thought it was safe now that she was safely married to Tommen (who won't know the difference a few years from now when they consummate), so she was willing to take that risk instead of remaining celibate for another 5 or so years. I think that's unlikely, but all options ought to be on the table.

I think the Tyrells, including Marge (but dis-including Mace, who is a fool and cannot be trusted in the plots) were actively trying to goad Cersei into making a go at her honor.

An aside: with all this analysis going on, I'm even starting to rethink my opinion on Mace's intelligence. It seems likely that he truly is a clueless oaf, but maybe that's what the QoT and George RR want us to think :lolwhut:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 1 month later...

If that were true, why would the Tyrells lie about the boiling oil then? It's a lot harder to pretend that Loras was grieviously burned than it is for them to pretend that he was wounded by arrows and swords to the point of severe injury.

It's actually very easy to pretend he's burned. Simply bandage him as if he had been. Better yet, take someone who WAS burned, and present that bandaged person as Loras. Who's gonna know? It's actually easier to fake that sort of injury than a deep wound.

As for there being thousands of witnesses, they weren't all looking at Loras. Maybe boiling oil was poured, maybe not. But if the Tyrells started a story that he was hit with boiling oil, the thousands of men at the battle would simply assume that it happened when they weren't looking. They did all have things to do, during battle, that might have made watching Loras difficult. Once he disappeared inside the castle, only the people riding closest to him would be able to see what happened to him at all. Since he was wearing armor, none of them would have been able to see what condition he was in after the fight.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 weeks later...
  • 11 months later...

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...