R+L=J v.43

[Sasha Steelsong]

Yes, the ambiguity is the whole point, right? You can construe all of this one way, I can construe it another. Neither of us can prove the other is wrong until Mr. Martin decides to give us the answer to the mystery.

Actually no. It is a falicy to think that every theory must be given the same consideration when other facts that are known make the theory impossible, for example the fisherman's daughter being the mother - as Jon would be way to old to be born at the time of the Sack if that were the case (and GRRM has said that is when he was born, about 9 months before Dany). The realities of war (Ned was actively fighting after his wedding not just shuffling around the country) and distance make it unlikely that there was any kind of meeting before the Sack, and unless Ashara is an elephant or a whale unlikely that if she got pregnant at Harranhal she would have still been pregnant well over a year later. Another theory that does not contradict the facts, sure that could and should be given equal consideration. But people have yet to come up with one aside from R+L=J that answers all the questions raised about Jon's parentage and what happened at the TOJ, that does not contradict established facts.

[LadyMary]

I don't really know what the extent of Ned and Ashara's relationship is but, I think it is reasonable to think it was beyond one simple dance. Cersei, Cat, Jojen Reed, Harwin, Ned's own servants, why is it that all these people one being the son of Howland Reed the only man alive that knows about TOJ, seem to think Ned and Ashara had some sort of intimate relationship? I'm finding it hard to believe their suspicions are solely based on the fact that Ned had one dance with her, when she also danced with several other men at the TOH yet multiple ppl in Westeros fom KL to the North think Ned and Ashara had something goin on. I think there might be something big that GRRM hasn't revealed to us yet that will explain a little more about Ned and Ashara and why people seem to think they had something between them. With that being said I still don't think Ashara is Jon Snow's mother in case people interpret this post as me trying say that lol. I think FittleLinger had an interesting point a while back about how Ned could have possibly started the rumors himself or at least went along with them to take suscpicion off the events that occurred at the TOJ. I mean either way we know for certain he doesn't flat out deny the rumors when he is confronted by Cat.

Understood and I don't think Ashara was Jon's mother either. I'm convinced Jon is Rhaegar and Lyanna's son. Assuming that to be true, Ashara's role in Ned's life is an interesting sideline to the R+L=J story. I know there are a fair number of fans who don't want to believe that honorable Ned would have premarital intercourse and pregnancy out of wedlock. I think that maybe there was something to all those rumors about Ned and Ashara. The fact that Ned was so notably honorable would make any dishonor all the more worthy of gossip, and there are certainly some who think there's a connection between the rumor and the existence of the bastard claimed by Lord Eddard. It may be that Eddard's affection for Ashara was known from Harrenhal but she was indeed in love with his older brother. And maybe Ned was a cover for his randy brother Brandon's affair with Ashara.

On Ashara and her Disgrace:

The way I read this, and perhaps it's a matter of semantics in the use of "a Stark," is that it means one amongst many in the same group/family, (I also know there aren't that many, only three: Brandon, Ned, and Benjen, who is too young, but nonethless, a Stark, but which one)?

This wording is typically clever "Martinism."

There is also the fact that the same book that Barrisistan reveals this, is the same book we get a little more information on Brandon, who sounds like a Northern version of the Red Viper.

There is also the historical fact that men and women did not have "friendships" in those days the way we do today, where she might go to a man outside her clan or family for help, or divulge any intimates secrets, because such things were not spoken of, at least not with a shy boy like Ned. Perhaps those alliances happend with the rakes at Court, but not naive Ned- unless Ned had some influence over whatever man Ashara needed help with, and there was only one man Ned could do anything about, and that was his Brother.

Ned was not apart of the "in" crowd like Brandon was. Brandon would have associated with his peers, and Ashara would have been in the middle of all that. It's unlikely that she would have ever noticed Ned unless Brandon asked her to dance with him.

That Ned may have had a crush on her, (and I haven't seen any evidence of that in his thought processes), is an unintended consequence of what likely was already a burgeoning love affair between Brandon and Ashara, though she may have come to appreciate later, the man that Ned was.

And sadly, Brandon may not have been adverse to using Ned as a cover, and thats what everyone remembered, though it seems that Selmy is a little more savvy, and noticed something more.

But, it's my speculation that Brandon was the one who seduced/dishonored Ashara and that she loved him, or why not drink her tea? Certainly if Ashara didn't love the Father of her child, and it was a casual thing, she would have taken precautions like the good Dornish woman she was.

Later, she prevailed upon Ned for help, because he would be the only man who could perhaps intervene, and go to Rickard, or marry her himself since it would be likley that Brandon would not be able to break his betrothal with the Tullys.

While the Daynes were not as high as the Tullys, they were still too high to dishonor in such a public way.

I imagine also that another piece of this is that Ned protected Cat from the knowledge that Brandon didn't love her, (though later it may not matter to her), but more importantly kept it from Hoster that Brandon insulted Cat.

I believe that Ned was smitten with Ashara before his marriage to Cat. But by the time of AGOT, he and Catelyn were happily married and Ashara was long dead. That said, I could believe this (bold above). I wasn't sold on the Brandon theory because it seemed too much like a Martinesque red herring that depended on Lady Dustin's sour grapes, but if there's truth to Barbrey's words, then Brandon probably had a string of conquests.

Then I recall Ned's bitter memory about Brandon, that "it was all for you". Maybe all included the woman that Ned wanted and maybe Ned was the kind of man who would agree to marry his brother's lover if she was pregnant to clean up his brother's mess and spare Ashara and Brandon the dishonor, out of love for them both. Ironically, Ned later took it upon himself to claim his sister's son as his own bastard, basically confessing the same dishonor Ned hoped to spare his family. Ned did a lot for the people he loved.

[Alia of the knife]

This is more or less what I've been saying. Thank you for elaborately so nicely :)

I think the whole Ned/Ashara business reeks of red herring. They may have known each other. Danced together at the tourney, Ashara may have even been involved in the ToJ situation. But I cannot find it in me to believe there was a romantic attachment (beyond a possible initial crush on Ned's part) I think "the Stark" she turned to was Brandon and (unless Mtn Lion manages to convince me of the Aerys scenario ;)) if she had a child it was Brandon's. As for Ned- the poor guy spends the rest of his life covering up the mess his siblings left him. :frown5:

Thank you :wub:

And I think we've all seen clumsy "Cyrano de Bergerac" moments in real life as well, or something similar to it without the horriific consequences. I also suspect that Brandon loved Ned and wouldn't hurt him, but, was also probably use to Ned covering for him.

As you said, Ned cleaning up after his siblings, (and Benjen is rprobably not off the hook either for whatever part he played in all this), is one of the most poignant aspects of Neds story.

Edit: And to be fair and transparent, I too thought about an Aerys/Ashara scenario, but again, it goes back to traditions of the times. In that case, it would be rape, and she would need to turn to "a Targaryen," (Rhaegar/Elia, as well as her Brother), in that case, not "a Stark" who could do less than zero about Aerys.

Also, since Aerys would have raped Ashara, she most definitely would drink her tea.

And it was also likely that Elia had to bow to Westerosi morality, and send Ashara from Court herself.

I love this, I think it could definitely be possible that ppl in the realm are confusing Brandon with Eddard in terms of an actualy sexual relationship with Ashara while Ned was simply playing the trusted friend/Dr. phil part. As I said before there are definitely a lot of grey areas concerning Ashara Dayne and the Stark family that I expect GRRM to address in the future.

Agreed.

It's all about perception, and people believed what they saw.

What they saw was not Brandon and Ashara in the shadows of the feast, but Ned and Ashara dancing openly in the light of the torches.

I think Martin is playing on the serial mysteries again, and one of the men she danced with supposedly is the suspect father, but most have qualifiers to eliminate them:

- A white cloak: probably her brother Arthur, or Prince Llywen Martel, or maybe Selmy, one is her brother, the other has a paramour, and the other won't break his oath.

- A Griffin: Jon Connington: Unlikely, (cough).

- A Viper: Prince Oberyn: (Too busy and politically awkward)

Accept for:

- The Shy wolf, "but only after the Wild Wolf spoke to her on behalf of his brother too shy to leave his bench."

All the other men she danced with can be eliminated as "suspects" for different reasons except for Ned, and THAT is what people remembered.

[Jon Icefyre]

Not in that passage but when Catelyn is remembering leaving Riverrun with Robb to head north (as Robb is entering it after having liberated it from the Lannister siege), she remembers him in swaddling clothes. Meaning that he was only a few months old at best. And when she arrived at Winterfell Jon was there and Catelyn believed him to be of an age with Robb. You are not going to confuse a 9 month old baby with a 5 month old baby - way too much development happens in the first year for Robb and Jon to be more than a couple of months apart because no one questions that Jon is slightly younger than Robb. That combined with the nature of Ned's thoughts on the subject mean that the official story is that Jon was conceived after Ned was wed.

Nor do I accept your interpretation of "at Harranhal" but at the time of the tourney - whenever anyone refers it outside of the cursed legacy, it seems to be the tournament that happened a year before the war. In the extremely unlikely event that there was something physical between Ned and Ashara, it didn't not occur then and produce Jon. Jon would be at least a year older if that was the case.

ETA: I'm with Apple in that Ned never thinking once of Ashara in any terms, let alone romantic, sort of rules him out as the Stark in Barristan's description.

I'm re-quoting this post to point out that it actually isn't true. Here are Catelyn's thoughts from one of her first chapters in AGOT:

Catelyn is very clearly stating here that she believes Jon was conceived during the first year of her and Ned's marriage.

Actually no. It is a falicy to think that every theory must be given the same consideration when other facts that are known make the theory impossible, for example the fisherman's daughter being the mother - as Jon would be way to old to be born at the time of the Sack if that were the case (and GRRM has said that is when he was born, about 9 months before Dany). The realities of war (Ned was actively fighting after his wedding not just shuffling around the country) and distance make it unlikely that there was any kind of meeting before the Sack, and unless Ashara is an elephant or a whale unlikely that if she got pregnant at Harranhal she would have still been pregnant well over a year later. Another theory that does not contradict the facts, sure that could and should be given equal consideration. But people have yet to come up with one aside from R+L=J that answers all the questions raised about Jon's parentage and what happened at the TOJ, that does not contradict established facts.

@Ruby Chevrolet.....Boom there it is. :owned:

[Alia of the knife]

Understood and I don't think Ashara was Jon's mother either. I'm convinced Jon is Rhaegar and Lyanna's son. Assuming that to be true, Ashara's role in Ned's life is an interesting sideline to the R+L=J story. I know there are a fair number of fans who don't want to believe that honorable Ned would have premarital intercourse and pregnancy out of wedlock. I think that maybe there was something to all those rumors about Ned and Ashara. The fact that Ned was so notably honorable would make any dishonor all the more worthy of gossip, and there are certainly some who think there's a connection between the rumor and the existence of the bastard claimed by Lord Eddard. It may be that Eddard's affection for Ashara was known from Harrenhal but she was indeed in love with his older brother. And maybe Ned was a cover for his randy brother Brandon's affair with Ashara.

I believe that Ned was smitten with Ashara before his marriage to Cat. But by the time of AGOT, he and Catelyn were happily married and Ashara was long dead. That said, I could believe this (bold above). I wasn't sold on the Brandon theory because it seemed too much like a Martinesque red herring that depended on Lady Dustin's sour grapes, but if there's truth to Barbrey's words, then Brandon probably had a string of conquests.

Then I recall Ned's bitter memory about Brandon, that "it was all for you". Maybe all included the woman that Ned wanted and maybe Ned was the kind of man who would agree to marry his brother's lover if she was pregnant to clean up his brother's mess and spare Ashara and Brandon the dishonor, out of love for them both. Ironically, Ned later took it upon himself to claim his sister's son as his own bastard, basically confessing the same dishonor Ned hoped to spare his family. Ned did a lot for the people he loved.

"That it was all for you."

Thank you, I had forgotten that, but that piece is very pivotal to what was probably a very complicated dynamic between the two brothers.

It's the first sign of bitterness, and therefore the first crack in Neds enigmatic stoicism, that we see that could hint at something like love/hate for his brother.

[Ruby Chevrolet]

Not in that passage but when Catelyn is remembering leaving Riverrun with Robb to head north (as Robb is entering it after having liberated it from the Lannister siege), she remembers him in swaddling clothes. Meaning that he was only a few months old at best. And when she arrived at Winterfell Jon was there and Catelyn believed him to be of an age with Robb. You are not going to confuse a 9 month old baby with a 5 month old baby - way too much development happens in the first year for Robb and Jon to be more than a couple of months apart because no one questions that Jon is slightly younger than Robb. That combined with the nature of Ned's thoughts on the subject mean that the official story is that Jon was conceived after Ned was wed.

Nor do I accept your interpretation of "at Harranhal" but not at the time of the tourney - whenever anyone refers it outside of the cursed legacy, it seems to be the tournament that happened a year before the war. In the extremely unlikely event that there was something physical between Ned and Ashara, it didn't not occur then and produce Jon. Jon would be at least a year older if that was the case.

ETA: I'm with Apple in that Ned never thinking once of Ashara in any terms, let alone romantic, sort of rules him out as the Stark in Barristan's description.

ETA II: missed a "not" - sort of changes the whole sentence but I think Jon IceFyre got the idea anyway :)

I don't read that passage as indicating that Robb is older than Jon. If, however, you are right and the two were "of an age" that is fully consistent with the point I was making (that Eddard and Ashara could have conceived Jon Snow at Harrenhal a few days or weeks before Eddard's wedding or shortly after it).

There is no reason to suppose that "at Harrenhal" can't mean "at Harrenhal" instead of "at Harrenhal, during the tournament that took place during the year of the false spring."

Actually no. It is a falicy to think that every theory must be given the same consideration when other facts that are known make the theory impossible, for example the fisherman's daughter being the mother - as Jon would be way to old to be born at the time of the Sack if that were the case (and GRRM has said that is when he was born, about 9 months before Dany). The realities of war (Ned was actively fighting after his wedding not just shuffling around the country) and distance make it unlikely that there was any kind of meeting before the Sack, and unless Ashara is an elephant or a whale unlikely that if she got pregnant at Harranhal she would have still been pregnant well over a year later. Another theory that does not contradict the facts, sure that could and should be given equal consideration. But people have yet to come up with one aside from R+L=J that answers all the questions raised about Jon's parentage and what happened at the TOJ, that does not contradict established facts.

I don't see why anyone would find it difficult to believe that Lady Ashara found her way up to Harrenhal during the rebellion. Lady Catelyn managed to travel from Riverrun to Storm's End and back during the War of Five Kings. Prince Brandon Stark, who was disabled, managed to escape from Winterfell, cross two war zones, and go beyond the Wall. King Robb Stark managed to fall in love and get married to an enemy's daughter during a war.

And why is the fisherman's daughter impossible? The timing works if she followed Eddard when he went south. The only way it doesn't work is if you assume (without textual basis) that Eddard only met her once. But that is a different topic altogether.

[Ruby Chevrolet]

I'm re-quoting this post to point out that it actually isn't true. Here are Catelyn's thoughts from one of her first chapters in AGOT:

Catelyn is very clearly stating here that she believes Jon was conceived during the first year of her and Ned's marriage.

No, she is clearly stating that Eddard fathered a child while campaigning and that she learned of it during the first year of her marriage.

[Winds of Winter blow cold]

Wow! Things got hot in here! :lol:

[Dragonfish]

No, she is clearly stating that Eddard fathered a child while campaigning and that she learned of it during the first year of her marriage.

No, read it again. Here is the key passage: "He had a man's needs, after all, and they had spent that year apart, Ned off at war in the south while she remained safe in her father's castle at Riverrun...He was welcome to whatever solace he might find between battles." She's saying that he has a man's needs, but since he was apart from his wife for a whole year, he was free to satiate those needs with someone else. Ergo, Catelyn believes Ned fathered Jon after their marriage.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

No, read it again. Here is the key passage: "He had a man's needs, after all, and they had spent that year apart, Ned off at war in the south while she remained safe in her father's castle at Riverrun...He was welcome to whatever solace he might find between battles." She's saying that he has a man's needs, but since he was apart from his wife for a whole year, he was free to satiate those needs with someone else. Ergo, Catelyn believes Ned fathered Jon after their marriage.

Yes. It's clear that she thinks Ned fathered Jon while on campaign, AFTER they were married. I don't see what's so unclear about this.

And why is the fisherman's daughter impossible? The timing works if she followed Eddard when he went south. The only way it doesn't work is if you assume (without textual basis) that Eddard only met her once. But that is a different topic altogether.

Actually the way Davos hears the story, it's that Ned did his thing and then left this girl, whoever she was, not that she followed him south. You talk about textual basis, but there's no textual basis for the fisherman's daughter following Ned. The way the story goes, she got Ned to his destination, they may or may not have had sex, he paid up and left. Assuming she went with him is where "without textual evidence" comes in.

I'm also confused too as to why you keep bringing up Harrenhal as a possibility for where Jon was conceived if Ashara is his mother. If he'd been conceived there (which also doesn't match the timeline GRRM gives for his birth, by the way), he'd be a fair bit older than he actually is.

[Ruby Chevrolet]

No, read it again. Here is the key passage: "He had a man's needs, after all, and they had spent that year apart, Ned off at war in the south while she remained safe in her father's castle at Riverrun...He was welcome to whatever solace he might find between battles." She's saying that he has a man's needs, but since he was apart from his wife for a whole year, he was free to satiate those needs with someone else. Ergo, Catelyn believes Ned fathered Jon after their marriage.

That's okay, I got it the first time. I think the most you can get out of that passage is that Catelyn thought Eddard was sating his lusts on a regular basis throughout the first year of their marriage. Not that Eddard only started sating his lusts between battles after his wedding.

Also, I think it would be a mistake to equate fathering a child with conceiving a child. Eddard could still be said to have fathered a child after his marriage even if that child was born one day after the wedding.

As an aside, the relative ages of Robb and Jon are completely irrelevant to the point I was making, which is that 'at Harrenhal' does not necessarily mean 'during the tournament at Harrenhal.' Do they matter in any way to the R+L=J theory? If so, how?

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

That's okay, I got it the first time. I think the most you can get out of that passage is that Catelyn thought Eddard was sating his lusts on a regular basis throughout the first year of their marriage. Not that Eddard only started sating his lusts between battles after his wedding.

I am baffled as to how you can get out of that anything other than that Catelyn assumes Ned fathered Jon after they were married. That is literally what it's saying.

As an aside, the relative ages of Robb and Jon are completely irrelevant to the point I was making, which is that 'at Harrenhal' does not necessarily mean 'during the tournament at Harrenhal.' Do they matter in any way to the R+L=J theory? If so, how?

Then surely you have evidence or an argument for when Ned and Ashara would have been at Harrenhal together a few months into the war? Because I don't see any.

As for the ages, like I said, I think it's possible that Jon is actually older, but if he is the difference isn't noticeable. I think it matters mostly for Catelyn's sake, so that she can "know" that her legitimate son is the oldest and Jon doesn't pose a threat to Robb's inheritance, which he might if he was older.

[Jon Icefyre]

That's okay, I got it the first time. I think the most you can get out of that passage is that Catelyn thought Eddard was sating his lusts on a regular basis throughout the first year of their marriage. Not that Eddard only started sating his lusts between battles after his wedding.

Also, I think it would be a mistake to equate fathering a child with conceiving a child. Eddard could still be said to have fathered a child after his marriage even if that child was born one day after the wedding.

As an aside, the relative ages of Robb and Jon are completely irrelevant to the point I was making. Do they matter in any way to the R+L=J theory? If so, how?

What?? It's clearly saying that Cat thinks Ned fathered Jon after they were married. She brings up the fact that they were apart for a year and that she barely knew her husband as reasons to justify Ned's actions(having an affair). She wouldn't need to justify his actions at all if he had fathered Jon before he was married to her therefore we would have never gotten that specific passage from Cat justifying Ned's action if Ned had indeed fathered Jon before they were married. I don't see how anyone can deny this.

[Dragonfish]

That's okay, I got it the first time.

Obviously you didn't.

[Ruby Chevrolet]

Then surely you have evidence or an argument for when Ned and Ashara would have been at Harrenhal together a few months into the war? Because I don't see any.

As for the ages, like I said, I think it's possible that Jon is actually older, but if he is the difference isn't noticeable. I think it matters mostly for Catelyn's sake, so that she can "know" that her legitimate son is the oldest and Jon doesn't pose a threat to Robb's inheritance, which he might if he was older.

It sounds like you and I get to the same place on the boys' ages, just through different reasoning. It seems we do not know which one is older and it doesn't matter much to theories on Jon's mother's identity as long as we agree they are around the same age.

I figure Eddard had to have spent some time in Harrenhal during the rebellion because of its strategic location near the crossroads of the kingsroad and the road that comes down from the Vale. The rebels wanted it during Robert's Rebellion for the same reason Lord Tywin wanted it during the War of Five kings.

The reasons for Ashara's presence are more speculative since all we really know about her movements is that she was at the tournament at Harrenhal, she was in Starfall at the end of the rebellion, and in between she was not nailed to the floor in Starfall.

I speculate that she may have been at Harrenhal visiting when Eddard and his army arrived at the beginning of the rebellion. Or, when Rhaegar, her brother and Oswell Whent (of the Harrenhal Whents) disappeared and could not be found, she was one of the people who looked for them. Maybe she went to Oswell's family to ask if they knew where Oswell and her brother had gone.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

It sounds like you and I get to the same place on the boys' ages, just through different reasoning. It seems we do not know which one is older and it doesn't matter much to theories on Jon's mother's identity as long as we agree they are around the same age.

I figure Eddard had to have spent some time in Harrenhal during the rebellion because of its strategic location near the crossroads of the kingsroad and the road that comes down from the Vale. The rebels wanted it during Robert's Rebellion for the same reason Lord Tywin wanted it during the War of Five kings.

The reasons for Ashara's presence are more speculative since all we really know about her movements is that she was at the tournament at Harrenhal, she was in Starfall at the end of the rebellion, and in between she was not nailed to the floor in Starfall.

I speculate that she may have been at Harrenhal visiting when Eddard and his army arrived at the beginning of the rebellion. Or, when Rhaegar, her brother and Oswell Whent (of the Harrenhal Whents) disappeared and could not be found, she was one of the people who looked for them. Maybe she went to Oswell's family to ask if they knew where Oswell and her brother had gone.

I'd be more inclined to think you might be onto something if there were anything at all in the books that suggested it. As it is, "I figure ..." doesn't mean much to me, sorry.

[Ruby Chevrolet]

I'd be more inclined to think you might be onto something if there were anything at all in the books that suggested it. As it is, "I figure ..." doesn't mean much to me, sorry.

Sometimes to understand Mr Martin's books you have to look past what is said explicitly in the text and pick up on subtle clues. Does he say that Eddard went to Harrenhal during the rebellion? No. Knowing that Harrenhal was vital to his war effort and that it lay on his main supply line from home to the south, is it likely Eddard bypassed Harrenhal? No.

For Ashara, does it say she was in Harrenhal during the rebellion? No. But it does say she was dishonored there and half the kingdom (including Eddard's wife) thinks she bore Eddard's bastard at the end of the rebellion.

So I should have said 'I figure, based on solid textual clues ...'

[The White Wolf]

Sometimes to understand Mr Martin's books you have to look past what is said explicitly in the text and pick up on subtle clues. Does he say that Eddard went to Harrenhal during the rebellion? No. Knowing that Harrenhal was vital to his war effort and that it lay on his main supply line from home to the south, is it likely Eddard bypassed Harrenhal? No.

For Ashara, does it say she was in Harrenhal during the rebellion? No. But it does say she was dishonored there and half the kingdom (including Eddard's wife) thinks she bore Eddard's bastard at the end of the rebellion.

So I should have said 'I figure, based on solid textual clues ...'

I absolutely cannot take anything you post seriously... The first and last sentences especially. Wow, just wow...

[KingAlanI]

http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Tower_of_Joy cites AGOT chapter 39 (Eddard X). I ought to reread at least that chapter.

However, accepting R+L=J, I wonder:

Was Jon born at the Tower Of Joy and did Lyanna die from the birth?

That would explain the fever and blood of her death, and it means Jon wouldn't have to have been anywhere else in the meantime.

[Techelles]

Sometimes to understand Mr Martin's books you have to look past what is said explicitly in the text and pick up on subtle clues. Does he say that Eddard went to Harrenhal during the rebellion? No. Knowing that Harrenhal was vital to his war effort and that it lay on his main supply line from home to the south, is it likely Eddard bypassed Harrenhal? No.

For Ashara, does it say she was in Harrenhal during the rebellion? No. But it does say she was dishonored there and half the kingdom (including Eddard's wife) thinks she bore Eddard's bastard at the end of the rebellion.

So I should have said 'I figure, based on solid textual clues ...'

Sometimes you have to determine what the author thinks is important based on what he actually writes. This is a crafted, literary universe in which things are said and left unsaid for a reason. The mere possibility of something is not enough to suggest it. GRRM wants readers to pay attention to what he has put on the page, not to concoct hypotheticals based on whatever assumptions they might happen to make about the characters and the world in which they live.