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R+L=J v.43


Angalin

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I really can't give a full alternative theory to go against R+L=J. I think it's possible/likely. But i have to agree with the whitebeard guy, that the KG waiting in the tower doesn't make any sense.

If the KG already knows the hole royal family is dead/fleeing and the last loyalists have bended the knees, you MUST flee to save the king's life. "The Kingsguard does not flee" is just a punchline from someone who couldn't flee or didn't wanna do it. Just because the Lord Commander said it once, it doesnt make it an ancient noble vow. If the royal family is passing through the crowd and it turns agains the king because of something, you're gonna kill everybody instead of running to the castle because "the kingsguard does not flee"? Or if you're rescuing your king from prison, you cant do it silently and run away because "the KG doesnt flee"?

Maybe you could push it a little bit, and say that the Kingsguard doesnt flee in the middle of a battle, when they realize they're defeated. But they are alone in the tower, Lyanna is dying, whats the problem with 2 of them going away with the baby and the wetnurse and one of them staying with Lyanna? If she gets better we meet in a few weeks, if she does't, we saved the king and did everything we could for the queen.

Let's say the 3 defeated the 7. They wouldn't flee after it? The 3 of them would win the war alone, kill every single rebel and put Jon in the iron throne themselves?

Just to make it clear. I'm not ruling out the possibility that R+L=J. But the KG presence in the ToJ lacks better explanation IMO.

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Just to make it clear. I'm not ruling out the possibility that R+L=J. But the KG presence in the ToJ lacks better explanation IMO.

They can't flee yet if the king is a babe only days old whose mother is dying of childbirth complications and unable to be moved.

Its all perfectly sensible.

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They can't flee yet if the king is a babe only days old whose mother is dying of childbirth complications and unable to be moved.

Its all perfectly sensible.

Don't you think a baby only days old has better chance on the road, than on the hands of the enemy army that will come at any time?

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Don't you think a baby only days old has better chance on the road, than on the hands of the enemy army that will come at any time?

Not if the enemy army doesn't know where to look for the child, doesn't know there's a child in the first place, and not if the baby has no food supply. They might have been waiting for a wet nurse, or organizing an escape via Starfall or Oldtown. Either way, staying at the tower until Lyanna's fate was assured wasn't the most illogical of actions. Either she could feed Jon and act as his regent, or they could flee quickly, but not both.

Add to that that we do not flee should be expanded to we do not flee when doing so would mean abandoning the king - we have no indication there's any other scenario where they would be forbidden to do so.

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Not if the enemy army doesn't know where to look for the child, doesn't know there's a child in the first place, and not if the baby has no food supply. They might have been waiting for a wet nurse, or organizing an escape via Starfall or Oldtown. Either way, staying at the tower until Lyanna's fate was assured wasn't the most illogical of actions. Either she could feed Jon and act as his regent, or they could flee quickly, but not both.

Maybe they weren't looking for a child, but they would probably be looking for the KG and they would surely be looking for Lyanna.

It's possible that they assumed they wouldn't be found in the ToJ. But you have to agree that one of Reaghar favourite places was not a good hideout after all.

Anyway. It's possible that they were waiting for a wetnurse, but most likely there was already one. It's hard to believe there wasn't some employees (forgot the right word for that age), and since there was a pregnant woman, a wetnurse would be expected.

But the wetnurse theory, although not impossible, makes the "the KG does not flee" line just sooo ridiculous.

LC: - The Kingsguard does not flee!

Dayne: - Not until the wetnurse arrives.

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Lyanna was dying etc. which would easily explain her desperate pleading, but I think that there is a kernel there that Lyanna wasn't absolutely and undoubtedly sure that Eddard would do what he did because of his loyalty to Robert.

I like your explanation even better now that I think about it -- it lends a lot more nuance to the scene. Much of my response is based on the idea that Ned is appalled by Robert's approval of the Targ children's murders in KL, and as such, the idea of handing over his sister's child to Robert is unthinkable. But your point is more subtle.

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I don't think it was common knowledge that Rhaegar spent any time at the ToJ. And the KG had an entire continent to hide on. Sure, looking close to Starfall and Oldtown (and, in principle, Harrenhal) made quite some sense. But if they knew when the siege of Storm's End ended, they knew how much time they had until an army would arrive. Perhaps they didn't expect Ned to take the massive risk of coming only with a small, quite a bit faster group instead of a full slowly moving army.

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Oh, now we're discussing why the KG were at the ToJ again. The lesson of Rhaegar's rubies has already been forgotten.

And the mystical meaning of the number seven, which would also be attached to the rubies we're not talking about. :frown5:

I like your examination of these facts. I think that the tipping point for Ned was the fury he still had about Robert's reaction to the Lannister gifts presented in King's Landing. It is quite possible that without that event and those two parting in less than an amicable way that Lyanna's fears are well grounded.

You actually raise a good point.

In Medeval times a woman willfully disobeying her family, compromised and dishonored, (and sometimes even if it wasn't her fault), would either be executed by her own family, or if they were merciful, she might be sent to a Nunnery.

We've seen that the Heads of the Stark family take the "rules" very seriously, to the point of not having their own headsman. As the Head of House Stark, and House Paramount of the North, a man who could not control the women of his family likely would not be able to lead the men of the North, and the Head of House Stark would be expected to be the one to punish his family member.

The KG, and perhaps Lyanna herself may not have been able to predict Neds actions, no matter how much he may personally haved loved her, because the one thing we need to keep in mind in comparing the pleadings of Sansa and Lyanna, is in the end, he did kill Lady to appease Robert and his Queen.

If events had progressed "normally," and the Targaryen children taken and kept hostage until an age they could marry Roberts children, Elia sent back to Dorne, Rhaella sent to the Silent Sisters, then Ned really would have a serious decision to make, because he doesn't have the "Lannister Gifts" to put things in perspective.

But, I think the murders of Elia and her children chipped away at something in him in his view of Robert, even if he still loved him for their past, so that factor as well as his love for Lyanna made his decision easier to make, especially in light of finding her with an infant.

There is "honor," and then there is whats right, and Ned chose the right thing with Jon, even while the killing of Lady was expediently done to appease Robert and his Queen, because he had to decrease the hostilities lest Robert and Cersei start looking too closely at his family, i.e., Jon.

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I don't think it was common knowledge that Rhaegar spent any time at the ToJ. And the KG had an entire continent to hide on. Sure, looking close to Starfall and Oldtown (and, in principle, Harrenhal) made quite some sense. But if they knew when the siege of Storm's End ended, they knew how much time they had until an army would arrive. Perhaps they didn't expect Ned to take the massive risk of coming only with a small, quite a bit faster group instead of a full slowly moving army.

I don't think Ned knew he was taking a risk. I think when he heard Lyanna was in the tower of joy, he didnt think the three of them would be there. As he says "darry fled with viserys and the queen. I thought you might have sailed with them". If we are discussing why they were at the tower (after knowing a lot more than ned knew before getting there), I dont think he would have any reasons to believe they were all there. If he thought he would face the 3 KGs, he would have brought 10 men instead of 7.

But it is possible that they didnt expect him to come so quickly. Do you think someone informed Ned? Who would that be? Maybe Ashara? Knowing that she was responsible for her brother's death, by telling her beloved Ned where her sister was, might have been one of the reasons she suicided.

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I don't think Ned knew he was taking a risk. I think when he heard Lyanna was in the tower of joy, he didnt think the three of them would be there. As he says "darry fled with viserys and the queen. I thought you might have sailed with them". If we are discussing why they were at the tower (after knowing a lot more than ned knew before getting there), I dont think he would have any reasons to believe they were all there. If he thought he would face the 3 KGs, he would have brought 10 men instead of 7.

Actually no, I think he knew exactly who would be there — because where else would they be? His chat with them shows that he whittled down the possibilities — not with Rhaella, not with Aerys and Aegon, not with Rhaegar — so where else would they have gone? It also makes sense that whoever clued Ned in to Lyanna's whereabouts (I'm betting on Ashara) would have told exactly what and who he'd find there.

Speaking of, I think that's why he brought "only" seven men. He knew exactly what he would find — his sister and Jon — and didn't want to risk anyone outside of his trusted circle finding out about it, for obvious reasons. He brought enough to plausibly defeat the Kingsguard — which he did, only barely — but enough so that the secret wouldn't get out.

But it is possible that they didnt expect him to come so quickly. Do you think someone informed Ned? Who would that be? Maybe Ashara? Knowing that she was responsible for her brother's death, by telling her beloved Ned where her sister was, might have been one of the reasons she suicided.

As I suggested above, I think Ashara told Ned ... and Arthur. She might not have expected them to fight, or maybe she thought Ned deserved to know where Lyanna was, who knows. But neither party seems at all surprised to see the other, suggesting that BOTH knew exactly who it was they'd be encountering.

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Maybe they weren't looking for a child, but they would probably be looking for the KG and they would surely be looking for Lyanna.

It's possible that they assumed they wouldn't be found in the ToJ. But you have to agree that one of Reaghar favourite places was not a good hideout after all.

Anyway. It's possible that they were waiting for a wetnurse, but most likely there was already one. It's hard to believe there wasn't some employees (forgot the right word for that age), and since there was a pregnant woman, a wetnurse would be expected.

But the wetnurse theory, although not impossible, makes the "the KG does not flee" line just sooo ridiculous.

LC: - The Kingsguard does not flee!

Dayne: - Not until the wetnurse arrives.

They are not 'waiting for a wetnurse' - the wetnurse is already there, almost certainly, both on logic (you get the wetnurse before the baby is born, not after) and textual clues ('they' finding Ned and Wylla's return to Starfall after Jon's weaning).

Take a minute and think about things from the perspective of the KG.

They are holed up in a secret location that few know about (Rhaegar is not widely known to have spent time there - I believe you are mistakenly thinking of Summerhall, or even more mistakenly thinking that because after the fact it is known by Ned that Rhaegar named the ToJ means that before the fact he was known widely to go there). While they remain here, no one will find them except people who come here. As soon as they start moving they drastically increase the risk of discovery.

They have a newborn babe who is their King (else they already would have sent at least one member to Viserys), and the mother of the King is dangerously sick, certainly too sick to travel.

Their options are:

1. Stay where they are, hope no-one knows exactly which isolated and abandoned old watchtower in the dornish Marches should be searched, and wait until the Kings mother either improves enough to travel, or dies. If she dies, then they haven't lost anything except some time for Westeros to 'settle', if she improves they can travel more safely, they've kept her alive which is good of the King and for their honour, and they still haven't lost anything but some time for westeros to settle down.

2. Travel anyway, at great risk of detection, and thereafter hold forever the knowledge that they abandoned their King's mother to die when her fate was still uncertain. I don't think he's going to be impressed with that when he gets old enough to understand...

Its not until Ned and his friends ride up that it becomes sure that the 'enemy' knows where to look.

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Yes, Ashara would be a good guess. Somebody must have told him, considering he directly went from Storm's End to the ToJ within pretty short time.

And I think it's very telling who Ned took with him to find Lyanna. Howland Reed most likely was indebted to Lyanna since the tourney at Harrenhal. Ethan Glover was the only survivor of Brandon's ill-fated rampage into King's Landing. We know less about the other four, but the idea that all these men were, in some way or another, Lyanna's friends or otherwise personally involved in the unfolding of event that led to the rebellion is certainly not implausible. If so, I think we're supposed to ask why Ned chose these men to accompany him - and why he took only six more men instead of an entire army. Knowing what he would find makes all of this make sense though - if he already suspected such a secret that might have to be hidden, he wanted people he could trust with the issue, so people who were personally loyal to either him or Lyanna and noone else. Had he taken 70 instead of 7, he would have surely won at the ToJ, possibly without any losses; but he also would have been unable to keep the secret if 69 men could tell the story in the entire north.

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Perhaps you'd like to point out some of those ways that what I am saying is in error? I don't believe you've done that yet. It seems to me that you've disagreed with my interpretations because they upset your own interpretations that support R+L=J. There is no direct, literal, textive evidence for R+L=J. It's all interpreting various facts, and I would say mine are just as valid as yours.

The blue flower in the Wall? If Jon is the son of Lyanna, then you have a connection, if not, what is it then? the dangerous secrets again - sorry but your interpretation that withholding the truth about her involvement with Rhaegar is somehow dangerous fourteen years later is rather inconvincing. "Bed of blood", i.e. birthing bed, in which Lyanna was lying - where's the child then? You may offer a reasonable explanation for some of the textual clues but not for all of them in their entirety, and that makes sense only if Jon is R+L.

Ashara's dishonor would not have been public knowledge, nor would it be something that Ned would want to gossip about. If Ashara and Ned hooked up at Harrenhal, there is nothing to say it was a one time thing. GRRM has said Ashara was not nailed to the floor in Starfall. She could have been moving around and found a way to meet up with him in the days before the rebellion. That is where the lord in Davos' chapter traces the bastard too, though he ascribes him to a fisherman's daughter.

Meeting Ned prior the Rebellion (lasting for about a year) doesn't fit in the timeframe for Jon to be born within a month since the Sack, not to mention that this would be prior Ned married Catelyn and he would have no reason to say that he "dishonoured himself AND Catelyn", or to claim that Jon is younger than Robb, or to lie to Robert about who the mother was.

I don't think Ned knew he was taking a risk. I think when he heard Lyanna was in the tower of joy, he didnt think the three of them would be there. As he says "darry fled with viserys and the queen. I thought you might have sailed with them". If we are discussing why they were at the tower (after knowing a lot more than ned knew before getting there), I dont think he would have any reasons to believe they were all there. If he thought he would face the 3 KGs, he would have brought 10 men instead of 7.

Travelling with seven companions over the land split with civil war while you are second in command to the rebelling party is not exactly safe.

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I like your explanation even better now that I think about it -- it lends a lot more nuance to the scene. Much of my response is based on the idea that Ned is appalled by Robert's approval of the Targ children's murders in KL, and as such, the idea of handing over his sister's child to Robert is unthinkable. But your point is more subtle.

Actually no, I think he knew exactly who would be there — because where else would they be? His chat with them shows that he whittled down the possibilities — not with Rhaella, not with Aerys and Aegon, not with Rhaegar — so where else would they have gone? It also makes sense that whoever clued Ned in to Lyanna's whereabouts (I'm betting on Ashara) would have told exactly what and who he'd find there.

Speaking of, I think that's why he brought "only" seven men. He knew exactly what he would find — his sister and Jon — and didn't want to risk anyone outside of his trusted circle finding out about it, for obvious reasons. He brought enough to plausibly defeat the Kingsguard — which he did, only barely — but enough so that the secret wouldn't get out.

As I suggested above, I think Ashara told Ned ... and Arthur. She might not have expected them to fight, or maybe she thought Ned deserved to know where Lyanna was, who knows. But neither party seems at all surprised to see the other, suggesting that BOTH knew exactly who it was they'd be encountering.

Agreed both of you make really good points, when Ned finds Lyanna he says she is "clinging on to life" as if she was waiting for something or someone before she died. This tells me not only did she know Ned was coming, but also Ned says once he made the promise to Lyanna all the fear left her and she smiled and then died. Would she really be fearful to the point of willing herself to live until she makes Ned make her a promise, if the promise was simply to bury her in the crypts of Winterfell? Especially when you consider the fact that if she wasn't burried in the crypts it wouldn't have been seen as a dishonoring of her since she wasn't a lord? In my opinion the fact that she was clinging on to life willing herself to live until Ned made her that promise makes it sound like a mother's love/desire/will to make sure her child is and will be safe. I just don't really see why Lyanna would make that big of a deal about Ned making her a promise if the promise was simple to bury her in the crypts when she wouldn't have been seen in a bad light by her family, The north, or the public in general if she wasn't burried in the crypts since she was never Lord of Winterfell.

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Personally what I find odd is the fight itself. Did the 3 KG really believe that Ned would hurt Lyanna or the baby? Did they really believe that he would endanger them by betraying them to Robert? This course of action doesn’t seem logical. As I see it they should try and reason with Ned and learn his intentions because they had better chances protecting their king with Ned as an ally. Staying there waiting for only god knows who or how many and expecting to defeat them doesn’t seem right.

But for me the biggest arguments against this theory are the following:

Why did Rhaegar crown Lyanna? This is the big mystery imo. It is the base for this theory, where they met and fell in love.

Why did he choose as a hideout the ToJ? Dragonstone or the Free Cities would make better choices.

I don’t believe that these questions have been answered satisfyingly.

From the new Arriane chapter

In the Boneway and the Prince's Pass, two Dornish hosts had massed, and there they sat, sharpening their spears, polishing their armor, dicing, drinking, quarreling, their numbers dwindling by the day, waiting, waiting, waiting for the Prince of Dorne to loose them on the enemies of House Martell.

We know that during RR the war didn’t reach Dorne but the Martells couldn’t have known this in advance so I guess they must had been prepared. It seems that the Prince’s Pass is a secure place in Dorne for the army to gather secretly. If that’s the case it’s not such a good place to hide, not to mention that it’s in Dorne…. what would have happened to Lyanna and her child if the Martells had found them first?

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Personally what I find odd is the fight itself. Did the 3 KG really believe that Ned would hurt Lyanna or the baby? Did they really believe that he would endanger them by betraying them to Robert? This course of action doesn’t seem logical. As I see it they should try and reason with Ned and learn his intentions because they had better chances protecting their king with Ned as an ally. Staying there waiting for only god knows who or how many and expecting to defeat them doesn’t seem right.

Honour. Ned is honour-bound to be loyal to his new king, and put that loyalty above the family ties, i.e. tell Robert about Jon - exactly as the KG themselves would have been required to tell had the situation been reversed.

Plus, as has been discussed above, the KG certainly didn't intend to stay at ToJ forever, but were caught amid the preparations to leave by Ned's speedy arrival.

Why did Rhaegar crown Lyanna? This is the big mystery imo. It is the base for this theory, where they met and fell in love.

Sorry, not getting your point about the crowning being fundamental for the R+L

Why did he choose as a hideout the ToJ? Dragonstone or the Free Cities would make better choices.

"Hideout" is supposed to be a secret place, and a remote location where hardly anyone ever comes is much better in this respect than a big fortress or cities with too many eyes. Rhaegar didn't intend to hold out against opposition when he eloped with Lyanna but stay hidden and out of reach - out of the reach of Starks and Baratheons who would create mess, and of Aerys, whose authority would override Rhaegar's over the KG and which he couldn't risk to disobey.

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Honour. Ned is honour-bound to be loyal to his new king, and put that loyalty above the family ties, i.e. tell Robert about Jon - exactly as the KG themselves would have been required to tell had the situation been reversed.

The 20-year old Ned wasn’t the 35-year old Ned we meet at the beginning of the GoT. Being the second son and under the shadow of Brandon, plus without having established himself yet as a capable lord or/and military commander, I doubt his honor and character were widely known and respected back then. Plus from recent events we do know that Ned puts family before honor. So as I proposed it was only logical for the KG to explore his intentions before fight, not necessarily yield or surrender Lyanna and the baby but at least try and negotiate. Ned arriving with only 6 men should give them a clue of the man’s intentions.

Plus, as has been discussed above, the KG certainly didn't intend to stay at ToJ forever, but were caught amid the preparations to leave by Ned's speedy arrival.

Well, if that’s true, it must mean that Jon was born shortly before Ned’s arrival, no more than a week before, which fits tightly the timeline from Ned’s departure from KL, the lift of SE siege and his travel to the ToJ, all in about 3 weeks. But since it’s possible I won’t argue, this isn’t the main point.

Sorry, not getting your point about the crowning being fundamental for the R+L

If not for Harrenhal the theory has no textual basis for the beginning of their affair. Harrenhal is where, as proposed, they met; fell in love, Rhaegar became infatuated by her courage and eventually crowned her as QoLaB. If it wasn’t for the crowning the readers would have no reason to assume that there was any romantic history between the two.

Besides that, the actual deed is peculiar to me. Why would he crowned her publicly, a deed that would be received negatively by most?

"Hideout" is supposed to be a secret place, and a remote location where hardly anyone ever comes is much better in this respect than a big fortress or cities with too many eyes. Rhaegar didn't intend to hold out against opposition when he eloped with Lyanna but stay hidden and out of reach - out of the reach of Starks and Baratheons who would create mess, and of Aerys, whose authority would override Rhaegar's over the KG and which he couldn't risk to disobey.

I added a quote in my previous post from the new Arriane chapter, maybe this explains better my case. Also I don’t see why one of the Free Cities wouldn’t be a better hideout, since it’s unlikely that Rhaegar and especially Lyanna would be recognized.

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The 20-year old Ned wasn’t the 35-year old Ned we meet at the beginning of the GoT. Being the second son and under the shadow of Brandon, plus without having established himself yet as a capable lord or/and military commander, I doubt his honor and character were widely known and respected back then. Plus from recent events we do know that Ned puts family before honor. So as I proposed it was only logical for the KG to explore his intentions before fight, not necessarily yield or surrender Lyanna and the baby but at least try and negotiate. Ned arriving with only 6 men should give them a clue of the man’s intentions.

Firstly, at 18, Ned's character would have been long estalished, certainly enough for Lyanna to know (compare with Jon or Robb at fourteen). Secondly, after a year of fighting and Ned being crucial to Robert's victories, his, ah, psychological profile would have been established, as well. Thirdly, the fact that we know Ned to always put family first before his honour is not knowledge that the KG or Lyanna herself could have possessed as that was virtually the first case when these clashed for him.

If not for Harrenhal the theory has no textual basis for the beginning of their affair. Harrenhal is where, as proposed, they met; fell in love, Rhaegar became infatuated by her courage and eventually crowned her as QoLaB. If it wasn’t for the crowning the readers would have no reason to assume that there was any romantic history between the two.

Besides that, the actual deed is peculiar to me. Why would he crowned her publicly, a deed that would be received negatively by most?

Here I can only theorize - I see a married man who falls for a betrothed girl and there is no way he can act on it, except that one public gesture that he simply cannot resist not to make. Or, as others have argued, it was not a romantic gesture but acknowledging her feats as KotLT, and the romance developed only afterwards.

I added a quote in my previous post from the new Arriane chapter, maybe this explains better my case. Also I don’t see why one of the Free Cities wouldn’t be a better hideout, since it’s unlikely that Rhaegar and especially Lyanna would be recognized.

I see your point, but this tells nothing about the situation when Rhaegar picked ToJ as his hideout, or about Lewyn Martell gathering the armies of Dorne - they could have used the other pass, and besides, an approaching army is much slower, and easier to spot, than a few individuals, which would allow the KG and Lyanna to retreat from the tower if necessary. It seems that there is very little traffic from Dorne to the north, we see very few Dornishmen outside Dorne, so I would assume that the location was really largely abandoned.

I think the problem would not be the Free Cities as such but the passage - the captain and the crew who, even if they didn't know who their passengers were, might still be able to put two and two together after hearing the news of the day, or merely spread gossip. Rhaegar and Arthur's looks were rather unique in Westeros, add to it Lyanna's beauty.... they would make very memorable passengers.

Besides, I believe that Rhaegar never meant to leave for good, rather stay hidden for a couple of months till the worst scandal was over and Lyanna got pregnant, and then they would resurface in a situation when everybody would just have to grit their teeth and deal with it because it's not like Robert could ask to get Lyanna back.

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Ned was not going to steal the KG away to the North and build a force to usurp his friend. Taking the baby North would mean ending his reign. I think the KG weren't negotiating because they are kind of like blood riders in a sense which is why Barristan has issues with his decision to join Robert when his brothers clearly made the opposite choice.

Giving the baby up or negotiating about what to do with the baby was in direct conflict with their vow. It was either eliminate the threat and continue on whatever long term plan they had or die.

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