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[Book Spoilers] If Joffrey is already being fitted for wedding clothes...

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I'm betting on 4x02 (GRRM's episode). KLs story in the premier will revolve around the wedding preparations and the arrival of the Dornish (and possibly Mace Tyrel).

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I'd be surprised if Joffrey would die as early as episode 2 of season 4. But it's entirely possible that this is going to be an episode dealing with the final preparations for/the beginning of the wedding. Episode 4 would be a much better episode for this, it could very easily become another huge what-the-fuck-moment as 'Dracarys' is going to be.

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It's at WIC. But there is no comfirm on what the episode will consist of, only that he's writing it.

My money is on the battle for The Wall, and Stannis's arrival. The timing works much better for ep 2 than the PW, IMO.

@lotun - I don't see both the RW and PW happening in the same episode, only due to Tyrion needing to tell Sansa about it. If they're in the same episode, they will seem to happen simultaneously. Regardless that Tywin organized it, it doesn't mean he has a Magic Asshai Ball and knows it came off without a hitch.

But in back to back eps? Definitely. I also think that would make for a much bigger surprise than waiting for a year, and having it become inevitable to even non-book readers (which it's sort of there now....)

Once Tyrion tells Sansa about it, all bets are off. Like someone else mentioned in this thread - they really don't need to even have a wedding. Just a dinner, and Joffrey chokes. Although it does take away from the Black Widow Virgin factor of Margaery Tyrell-Baratheon-Baratheon-Baratheon.

I think Stannis' arrival will be later in the season than episode 2, unless the last couple of episodes this season and the first next season are very Jon heavy

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can't they just get some random dude for mace tyrell? he's a boring buffoon anyway. he doesn't even need to talk...

Evidence currently looks like he might be ruling the kingdom come WoW

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I'll take that bet, but I'm not interested in playing with avatars. Why don't we do a money bet. Money transfer to a winner's bank account of choice. I win you give me $250, you win I give you $500 AND will change my avatar to whatever you want. I'll give you a handicap since you're not winning this one.

Edited to add: If the offer is accepted, it stands regardless of what happens in the next episodes. If the next few episodes make it obvious there'll be a wedding, no cancelling the bet before the PW actually airs.

Unfortunately I don't currently earn any money and so it would be wrong of me to make such a bet. Also, I'm a bit dubious about money bets over the internet as there's no way of ensuring that we'll get payed.

In my earlier post, it was a long night, and I was tired of all the debate. What I should have done was just close the topic down, but I thought a provocative post would be fun! I have to admit, I do find it baffling that people think it more likely than not that the PW will be in this season.

Some people believe the PW will be near RW, because of the same reason it was in the same book: To make it bittersweet, not just bitter.

If you want to bash people, right or not, you're not going to make them accept your point of view. You're just going to make your opposition become emotionally defensive, and use the same crude tools you do, which changes this from a discussion to a piss match. Which, at least to me, is unseemly.

I was going more along the lines of 'put your money where you mouth is'. Unfortunately I don't have any money so all I could put was my avatar. :(

:P

Asshole much?

Seriously dude, what are you afraid of that you have to belittle people who disagree with you?

If you don't want to have this discussion, then don't. Stay away from threads like this one. But calling people stupid and ignorant is repetitive, and doesn't add anything to the discussion.

It was a bit over the line but I thought it would be a fun bet. It's still on the table if anyone wants to take it. Don't take what I said to seriously though - it's a joke (albeit one that's not to everyone's taste)

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Reasons why we won't get the PW this season:

  • The RW will very likely end episode 9
  • The PW happens 124 pages after the RW in my copy. The RW ends at page 703. Why cover 703 pages in 9 episodes at a rate of 78 pages per episode and then cover 124 pages in the final episode? That's terrible pacing
  • Oberyn and Mace Tyrell are not in Season 3
  • Aiden Gillen says he gets a boat next season
  • Peter Dinklage says this season 'breathes more deeply'
  • PW is a major event with loads of extras but yet no one near the sets mentions it happening, whereas the RW was easily leaked
  • Why split ASOS in two only to have two major events back to back with little left for season 4?
  • Why rush ahead to AFFC and ADWD material when it is generally seen as weaker and difficult to work on tv?
  • Why have we not seen any clips of the PW in any trailer despite having seen the RW?
  • Why put Tyrion's marriage in episode 8, making it a big thing, unless if you're using it as a substitute for a major plot arc?
  • Why is the pacing in KL not more urgent than it is, given the need to fit such a major event in with the necessary foreshadowing and discussion?
  • Why not resolve uncat now, providing a nice conclusion to Cat and Beric's stories instead of leaving them for next season and replacing it with the PW?

And this is just from the top of my head. Can you really consider all that and still genuinely believe the PW will be in this season?

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I was going more along the lines of 'put your money where you mouth is'. Unfortunately I don't have any money so all I could put was my avatar. :(

:P

And that's cool, I'm totally for non-commerce bets, as they're just fun. It's a shame I haven't made an opinion myself of whether or not it's season 3.

However you have to admit saying:

Ok, I'm calling it now: people who think the PW is in Season 3 are either stupid or ignorant.

is only going to meet with very negative reactions, and isn't going to make it very likely that people will see your POV by saying it.

Certainly you realize it's more likely to make them defy it, right? Especially given the immediate reactions.

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  • The RW will very likely end episode 9 - Agreed.
  • The PW happens 124 pages after the RW in my copy. The RW ends at page 703. Why cover 703 pages in 9 episodes at a rate of 78 pages per episode and then cover 124 pages in the final episode? That's terrible pacing - It's called Character Arc
  • Oberyn and Mace Tyrell are not in Season 3 - They don't need to be. See The Reeds.
  • Aiden Gillen says he gets a boat next season - No one is saying the aftermath happens this season. We're saying Joffrey hits the floor this season. LF doesn't need to take Sansa anywhere until AFTER the PW, which would mean next season.
  • Peter Dinklage says this season 'breathes more deeplly' - HAAAA. Are you saying that means it can't happen because Joffrey can't breathe?
  • PW is a major event with loads of extras but yet no one near the sets mentions it happening, whereas the RW was easily leaked - You're saying their production company can't keep a secret? See LOST, and tons of other shows.
  • Why split ASOS in two only to have two major events back to back with little left for season 4? - Because there's lots more that happens in ASOS, as well as the two other books whose events happen simultaneously. There's more than enough left for season 4.
  • Why rush ahead to AFFC and ADWD material when it is generally seen as weaker and difficult to work on tv? - Seen by whom? You? Do you write for the show? Do you write for television or film for a living?
  • Why have we not seen any clips of the PW in any trailer despite having seen the RW? - Because they're not five year olds who can't keep a secret.
  • Why put Tyrion's marriage in episode 8, making it a big thing, unless if you're using it as a substitute for a major plot arc? - You're assuming it's in 8, but it could be in 7. Either way it doesn't matter. They're two different events that happen very quickly in the books. Joffrey's wedding is a bigger plot arc than Tyrion's, which is much more of a last-minute personal arc than a multi-character arc that has been planned since last season.
  • Why is the pacing in KL not more urgent than it is, given the need to fit such a major event in with the necessary foreshadowing and discussion? - We've only had two epeisodes. Dragging it out to ep 10 is a long time. Why should there be any more "foreshadowing and discussion" when the moment (Joffrey choking) is going to be a surprise? As for "foreshadowing and discussion" did you miss the scene with Lady Olenna this week? How much more do you want? The wedding itself has been discussed every episode so far.
  • Why not resolve uncat now, providing a nice conclusion to Cat and Beric's stories instead of leaving them for next season and replacing it with the PW? - No one is discussing that here, and it has no bearing on the PW, at all. Of course most people would like to see it happen at the end of this season. But one has nothing to do with the other.

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And that's cool, I'm totally for non-commerce bets, as they're just fun. It's a shame I haven't made an opinion myself of whether or not it's season 3.

However you have to admit saying:

is only going to meet with very negative reactions, and isn't going to make it very likely that people will see your POV by saying it.

Certainly you realize it's more likely to make them defy it, right? Especially given the immediate reactions.

I thought it would provoke them into taking the bet. And it emphasised how confident I am in my viewpoint because I wagered that I was both stupid and ignorant if I got it wrong. Harmless bit of fun imo but can see why it could offend.

  • The RW will very likely end episode 9 - Agreed. Yay, we agree on something :)
  • The PW happens 124 pages after the RW in my copy. The RW ends at page 703. Why cover 703 pages in 9 episodes at a rate of 78 pages per episode and then cover 124 pages in the final episode? That's terrible pacing - It's called Character Arc - That's no defense at all. Why not put RW episode 8 and spread pages more evenly? Character arc would be even better
  • Oberyn and Mace Tyrell are not in Season 3 - They don't need to be. See The Reeds. - Oberyn is an important suspect for the poisoning of Joffrey and his arc is very important in Season 4
  • Aiden Gillen says he gets a boat next season - No one is saying the aftermath happens this season. We're saying Joffrey hits the floor this season. LF doesn't need to take Sansa anywhere until AFTER the PW, which would mean next season. - The quote eliminates some ways in which the PW can unfold although not all of them
  • Peter Dinklage says this season 'breathes more deeplly' - HAAAA. Are you saying that means it can't happen because Joffrey can't breathe? - Lol, no, I meant that he gave no hint that anything particularly drastic or exciting would happen this season, unlike Robb in interview, who sounded pumped. Subjective but perhaps a useful clue in context.
  • PW is a major event with loads of extras but yet no one near the sets mentions it happening, whereas the RW was easily leaked - You're saying their production company can't keep a secret? See LOST, and tons of other shows. - But book readers already know what to expect in advance and so are looking out much more carefully for hints of the PW. Didn't watch Lost.
  • Why split ASOS in two only to have two major events back to back with little left for season 4? - Because there's lots more that happens in ASOS, as well as the two other books whose events happen simultaneously. There's more than enough left for season 4. - But the natural arc of Tywin dying to conclude season 4 would have to be pushed earlier and Season 4 would likely end in AFFC/ADWD with plots unresolved. Why would HBO rush through the story when they're onto a winner?
  • Why rush ahead to AFFC and ADWD material when it is generally seen as weaker and difficult to work on tv? - Seen by whom? You? Do you write for the show? Do you write for television or film for a living? - I've read AFFC/ADWD combined. It will be very difficult to adapt because of the vast number of viewpoints. ASOS is a lot easier and more dramatic and has a much higher density of pivotal moments.
  • Why have we not seen any clips of the PW in any trailer despite having seen the RW? - Because they're not five year olds who can't keep a secret. - It's not easy to keep secrets about something this big. It's possible - but not easy.
  • Why put Tyrion's marriage in episode 8, making it a big thing, unless if you're using it as a substitute for a major plot arc? - You're assuming it's in 8, but it could be in 7. Either way it doesn't matter. They're two different events that happen very quickly in the books. Joffrey's wedding is a bigger plot arc than Tyrion's, which is much more of a last-minute personal arc than a multi-character arc that has been planned since last season. - We were told it is in episode 8. (Unless they moved it last minute, it'll be there). They're making a big song and dance about Tyrion's marriage whereas that never happened in the books, so I think it's a substitute. PW isn't really a multi-character arc as the significant role the Tyrells play is best presented as a mystery imo
  • Why is the pacing in KL not more urgent than it is, given the need to fit such a major event in with the necessary foreshadowing and discussion? - We've only had two epeisodes. Dragging it out to ep 10 is a long time. Why should there be any more "foreshadowing and discussion" when the moment (Joffrey choking) is going to be a surprise? As for "foreshadowing and discussion" did you miss the scene with Lady Olenna this week? How much more do you want? The wedding itself has been discussed every episode so far - Fair point on foreshadowing, however I think the pacing was the key point here. I don't see why they would waste so much time focusing on Tyrion's marriage if the PW were in
  • Why not resolve uncat now, providing a nice conclusion to Cat and Beric's stories instead of leaving them for next season and replacing it with the PW? - No one is discussing that here, and it has no bearing on the PW, at all. Of course most people would like to see it happen at the end of this season. But one has nothing to do with the other. -They are relevant because they affect the business of the final episode? If Cat gets resurrected it's definitely a season-ending worthy moment. But if PW happens, that should end the season. If both are in they will need to cram the reaction in Kings Landing to the Red wedding, the reaction of Stannis to Robb's death, the conclusion of Jon's arc at the wall, the conclusion of Arya's arc with the Hound, the taking of Yunkai with Dany being proclaimed Mhysa, the conclusion of Brans arc - probably meeting Samwell in, well, the well, and the whole Purple Wedding itself into a single episode! That's madness!

gotta go...

EDIT: Ok, finished. But now I really have to go. Won't be able to reply for quite a while, but I hope you understand why I strongly believe the PW won't be in.

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Reasons why we won't get the PW this season:

  • The RW will very likely end episode 9
  • The PW happens 124 pages after the RW in my copy. The RW ends at page 703. Why cover 703 pages in 9 episodes at a rate of 78 pages per episode and then cover 124 pages in the final episode? That's terrible pacing
  • Oberyn and Mace Tyrell are not in Season 3
  • Aiden Gillen says he gets a boat next season
  • Peter Dinklage says this season 'breathes more deeply'
  • PW is a major event with loads of extras but yet no one near the sets mentions it happening, whereas the RW was easily leaked
  • Why split ASOS in two only to have two major events back to back with little left for season 4?
  • Why rush ahead to AFFC and ADWD material when it is generally seen as weaker and difficult to work on tv?
  • Why have we not seen any clips of the PW in any trailer despite having seen the RW?
  • Why put Tyrion's marriage in episode 8, making it a big thing, unless if you're using it as a substitute for a major plot arc?
  • Why is the pacing in KL not more urgent than it is, given the need to fit such a major event in with the necessary foreshadowing and discussion?
  • Why not resolve uncat now, providing a nice conclusion to Cat and Beric's stories instead of leaving them for next season and replacing it with the PW?

And this is just from the top of my head. Can you really consider all that and still genuinely believe the PW will be in this season?

Unfortunately I didn't read your previous post bashing other people's opinions but I have to say that in the end I do agree with a lot of these points. While I respect why people think it will be this season, and I enjoy this debate greatly, the positives outweigh the negatives of it happening next season. And, likewise, the negatives outweigh the positives for the PW happening this season.

Many people cite that the Martells do not need to come in until next season, similar to the way the Reeds were introduced. The Reeds are beside the point. Their storyline with Bran is in no way similar to the PW story arc. They, contrary to the Martell introduction, were introduced in a bad time during aCoK, structurally speaking, because they literally were not needed considering the fact that they contributed little to when Theon took Winterfell.

The Martells are a whole other story. It makes little sense that they would for no reason arrive in KL after the PW. They are not simply strolling through KL because they think it's fun. There's a reason there. Tywin (or someone) invited them out of goodwill especially after Myrcella was sold to them. To quote Cersei to Tyrion in Season 2:

"You FOOL!! The Martells LOATHE us!!"

This sums it up nicely. The Martells hate the Lannisters and the Red Viper even says he only showed up because he wanted justice for what the Mountain did during the KL sack. The PW is a perfect opportunity for this, but it wouldn't make sense for them to randomly show up afterwards. For what reason? To vouch for Tyrion at his trial? To jump at the chance to settle the score with Gregor Clegane, Cersei's champion? Maybe. But this would cause a whole mess of rewrite errors that I believe fans on this forum would simply find detestable rather than good, similar to the backlash which occurred in Cat's storyline after she seemingly let Jaime go prematurely and for little reason.

It is in no one's best interest to have this wedding rushed in a single episode. As I've said before, episode 10 would have to be more than an hour long and focus solely on KL to have this thing even adequately covered. GRRM knew what he was doing when he wrote these books, and as time has shown us, his writing ability is GREATLY superior to that of many of the other writers for the show. Therefore I believe that having PW next season would mirror his original intent and stay true to the majesty of the books.

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The Martells are a whole other story. It makes little sense that they would for no reason arrive in KL after the PW. They are not simply strolling through KL because they think it's fun. There's a reason there. Tywin (or someone) invited them out of goodwill especially after Myrcella was sold to them. To quote Cersei to Tyrion in Season 2:

"You FOOL!! The Martells LOATHE us!!"

This sums it up nicely. The Martells hate the Lannisters and the Red Viper even says he only showed up because he wanted justice for what the Mountain did during the KL sack. The PW is a perfect opportunity for this, but it wouldn't make sense for them to randomly show up afterwards. For what reason? To vouch for Tyrion at his trial? To jump at the chance to settle the score with Gregor Clegane, Cersei's champion? Maybe. But this would cause a whole mess of rewrite errors that I believe fans on this forum would simply find detestable rather than good, similar to the backlash which occurred in Cat's storyline after she seemingly let Jaime go prematurely and for little reason.

Absolutely nailed it.

I'm sure the Unsullied at the TWOP forums would be perplexed as hell if the Martells arrived after the PW. It makes absolutely no sense from a story point of view. In my bullet points I emphasised the problems with not introducing Oberyn Martell from a character point of view, but I think RememberTheNorth makes an even more salient point.

(ok, really gone this time)

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Cersei blames Tyrion and Sansa for the assassination. So why exactly does Oberyn need to be introduced before the PW?

Oberyn's purpose is to show hatred for the Lannisters and Gregor. He can easily fill that role after the PW. Tyrion's arc still has his interactions with Jaime, the trial and combat, and finally the murder of Tywin. Season 4, especially if parts of AFFC/ADwD are included in it will be too rushed if a few episodes are wasted early on doing PW. Logical end point for Tyrion's season 4 arc is him killing Tywin and Shae. Sansa's end point is LF throwing Lysa out the Moon Door.

So if PW happens in season 4 episode 2 or 4 like people are advocating we only have 6-8 episodes to show Oberyn, the trial, the combat, and Tywin's death. That is some MAJOR story compressed into a very short time. Even Poor Dead Ned had 2 episodes of imprisonment before he lost his head and there was no trial or trial by combat or introduction of an entire new faction that becomes important later.

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Cersei blames Tyrion and Sansa for the assassination. So why exactly does Oberyn need to be introduced before the PW?

Dramatic tension for the viewer. Who poisoned Joffrey should initially be a mystery (that is eventually solved).

So if PW happens in season 4 episode 2 or 4 like people are advocating we only have 6-8 episodes to show Oberyn, the trial, the combat, and Tywin's death. That is some MAJOR story compressed into a very short time. Even Poor Dead Ned had 2 episodes of imprisonment before he lost his head and there was no trial or trial by combat or introduction of an entire new faction that becomes important later.

No compression at all unless you're suggesting George RR Martin made the same mistake.

In my copy of ASOS it takes 703 pages to go from the beginning right up to the end of the red wedding. The murder of Tywin, however, is only 241 pages after the arrest of Tyrion. 6-8 episodes is more than enough to cover this time period. Indeed, 241 pages equates to approximately three episodes worth of time at the current rate we're going at for ASOS. In reality I bet it'll be more like 6 but there's no reason why it needs to be more.

I think that people's memories of ASOS can be a little foggy. It's worth rereading just to see how close the events are. The distance between Tywin's death and Tyrion's arrest is less than twice as much as the distance between the Purple Wedding and the Red Wedding. Treating GRRM as gospel, that would make Tywin's death happen in episode 2 of Season 4, if you want the PW in season 3. And whilst pacing can and will change, what's being suggested would be a drastic change.

Just to lay it out:

ASOS begins -----> +703 pages -------------------------> RW ends --> +124 pages ------> Tyrion arrested ---> + 241 pages -----------> Tywin dies --> +55 pages ---> ASOS ends

(Really really gone this time)

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So if the PW is episode 10, is Tyrion gonna sit in jail the whole season 4?

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Dramatic tension for the viewer. Who poisoned Joffrey should initially be a mystery (that is eventually solved).

No compression at all unless you're suggesting George RR Martin made the same mistake.

In my copy of ASOS it takes 703 pages to go from the beginning right up to the end of the red wedding. The murder of Tywin, however, is only 241 pages after the arrest of Tyrion. 6-8 episodes is more than enough to cover this time period. Indeed, 241 pages equates to approximately three episodes worth of time at the current rate we're going at for ASOS. In reality I bet it'll be more like 6 but there's no reason why it needs to be more.

I think that people's memories of ASOS can be a little foggy. It's worth rereading just to see how close the events are. The distance between Tywin's death and Tyrion's arrest is less than twice as much as the distance between the Purple Wedding and the Red Wedding. Treating GRRM as gospel, that would make Tywin's death happen in episode 2 of Season 4, if you want the PW in season 3. And whilst pacing can and will change, what's being suggested would be a drastic change.

Just to lay it out:

ASOS begins --> +703 pages ------> RW ends --> +124 pages ------> Tyrion arrested ---> + 241 pages -----> Tywin dies --> +55 pages -----> ASOS ends

(Really really gone this time)

the book series written by GRRM & the show produced by HBO have to be different for TIME CONSTRAINTS! do you get what that means? if you end season 2 with mention of King J & Marge T getting married then mention it in the first two episodes (while showing littlefinger getting ready to steal sansa & tywin threating tyrion against bedding whores thus the Tyrion/Shae/Sansa/Tywin dynamic. after tyrion marries sansa he will get blamed for killing J at his wedding & letting sansa escape. then Varys & Jamie get him out of dungeons while he kills shae & tywin. once again not every character can be shown & not every story told. if that means your favorite people end up on the block getting the axe then boo hoo but the show has its limits

& yes i said jamie. he will be ransomed to boltons in return for their part in RW

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Ok, I'm calling it now: people who think the PW is in Season 3 are either stupid or ignorant.

This debate has been raging on for ages but the reality became clear a good while ago. As it stands, I will happily take a bet that the PW will not occur in Season 3. If I'm wrong, I'll change my avatar to anything embarrassing that my counter-better proposes. If I'm right, we'll do the reverse.

As a bonus, I'll also regularly refer to myself as both stupid and ignorant in every other post.

Anyone interested in such a bet?

Very interested. I don't think it is at all stupid to think the PW could be in season three. It literally happens a few chapters after the RW in the Tyrion-Sansa chronology. Forget the page number that it happens, there are Davos and Jon chapters that separate the RW and the PW. And since most think the battle of castle black will happen in season 4 (something I don't understand at all) then that discounts Jon's chapter from right after the RW, making the PW easily adaptable right after the RW

Mace Tyrell or Oberyn don't need to be there, at least have a cast character portray. What do they do that is important in that scene? I just reread it, they're not important.

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Mace Tyrell or Oberyn don't need to be there, at least have a cast character portray. What do they do that is important in that scene? I just reread it, they're not important.

Their presence at the PW is crucial in the aftermath (Tyrions trial)

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Their presence at the PW is crucial in the aftermath (Tyrions trial)

Then look up the word aftermath

Selyse was played by an extra in S2, as was Beric Dondarrion in S1, only to become important later

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Then look up the word aftermath

Selyse was played by an extra in S2, as was Beric Dondarrion in S1, only to become important later

to use extras for Oberyn and Mace in EP3x10, only to re-cast them in EP4x1-2 sounds incredibly lazy and confusing for the audience. The characters you mentioned had no real significance to the story during their first appearance and most people who only watched the series probably forgot about Dondarirrions appearance in S1, while both Mace and Oberyn are central characters in westeros society so the audience will know that these two are important dudes and most likely remember what they look like.

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to use extras for Oberyn and Mace in EP3x10, only to re-cast them in EP4x1-2 sounds incredibly lazy and confusing for the audience. The characters you mentioned had no real significance to the story during their first appearance and most people who only watched the series probably forgot about Dondarirrions appearance in S1, while both Mace and Oberyn are central characters in westeros society so the audience will know that these two are important dudes and most likely remember what they look like.

The extras don't really need to be shown, especially when the wine and pie scene starts to cause a commotion. that scene should rightly only focus on Tyrion watching Joff, Marge, and Cercei.

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