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Most Precise ASOIAF Timeline in Existence


PrivateMajor

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How is this going? :)

Working backwards...

The final chapter in the North should be Jon XIII, Dance 69. Tormund returns after settling his band at Oakenshield, which is within a day's march from Castle Black. Since he arrived in the afternoon that would have been his return day. The day before, he would have marched to Oakenshield "a day or two" after passing the Wall. Since Jon apparently learned of the dire condition at Hardhome before Tormund left Tormund probably left the following day. So Dance 69 should follow Dance 58 by 2, maybe 3 days.

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Working backwards...

The final chapter in the North should be Jon XIII, Dance 69. Tormund returns after settling his band at Oakenshield, which is within a day's march from Castle Black. Since he arrived in the afternoon that would have been his return day. The day before, he would have marched to Oakenshield "a day or two" after passing the Wall. Since Jon apparently learned of the dire condition at Hardhome before Tormund left Tormund probably left the following day. So Dance 69 should follow Dance 58 by 2, maybe 3 days.

Jon XII, Dance 58 should follow Dance 53 by 3 days since were told that's when Tormund will pass the Wall. Jon XI, Dance 53 shoul occur the day after Dance 49, since that's when Jon deals with Tormund, and Tormund arrives the evening before.
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Jon XII, Dance 58 should follow Dance 53 by 3 days since were told that's when Tormund will pass the Wall. Jon XI, Dance 53 shoul occur the day after Dance 49, since that's when Jon deals with Tormund, and Tormund arrives the evening before.

Jon X, Dance 49 should follow Dance 44 by at least 9 days since Flint and Norrey arrive for the Thenn-Karstark wedding. We need one day for the ravens to fly to the mountains, and another eight or so for the men to reach the Wall. Given thaone showed up with a wet nurse, I think we should space this from 10 to 14 days.
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Jon X, Dance 49 should follow Dance 44 by at least 9 days since Flint and Norrey arrive for the Thenn-Karstark wedding. We need one day for the ravens to fly to the mountains, and another eight or so for the men to reach the Wall. Given thaone showed up with a wet nurse, I think we should space this from 10 to 14 days.

Then we have Jon IX, Dance 44, which we can use to synchronize with Dance 41 and Dance 42, since Jon notes that the snows have moved south. Dance 41 is The Turncloak, in which the snows begin to fall at Winterfell, and the snows begin to fall in the Wolfswood four days after the The King's Prize, Dance 44 begins.
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Then we have Jon IX, Dance 44, which we can use to synchronize with Dance 41 and Dance 42, since Jon notes that the snows have moved south. Dance 41 is The Turncloak, in which the snows begin to fall at Winterfell, and the snows begin to fall in the Wolfswood four days after the The King's Prize, Dance 44 begins.

Now going forward...

So we have Dance 42 beginning 3 days before Dance 44 and ending 30 days after Dance 44.

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Now going forward...

So we have Dance 42 beginning 3 days before Dance 44 and ending 30 days after Dance 44.

Ok, jump to Theon I, Dance 51, which takes place the day after Mors Umber arrives at Winterfell in A Ghost in Winterfell, Dance 46. (46 spans 4 days with Umber arriving on the 4th.) Arnolf has sent a bird from Stannis camp, Frey, Manderly, and apparently Ramsay ride out and Theon escapes. Mors apparently holds the Bolton expeditionary force, while Theon travels to Stannis three days away. Keep in mind that Tycho has just arrived at Winterfell too, from Castle Black in Dance 44 by way of Deepwood Motte.
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Ok, jump to Theon I, Dance 51, which takes place the day after Mors Umber arrives at Winterfell in A Ghost in Winterfell, Dance 46. (46 spans 4 days with Umber arriving on the 4th.) Arnolf has sent a bird from Stannis camp, Frey, Manderly, and apparently Ramsay ride out and Theon escapes. Mors apparently holds the Bolton expeditionary force, while Theon travels to Stannis three days away. Keep in mind that Tycho has just arrived at Winterfell too, from Castle Black in Dance 44 by way of Deepwood Motte.

Karstark arrives at Stannis's camp 11 days after Dance 42 ends and The Sacrifice, Dance 62, begins 8 days after that. And that's when Theon arrives at Stannis's camp.
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Karstark arrives at Stannis's camp 11 days after Dance 42 ends and The Sacrifice, Dance 62, begins 8 days after that. And that's when Theon arrives at Stannis's camp.

Theon I, Winds occurs the day after Dance 62. Since Stannis hints at the ruse then, and since Ramsay has apparently fallen for it, assuming the Pink Letter is authentic, Dance 69 must follow Theon I Winds by at least nine days.
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Sure :)

The Battle at the Mummer's Ford is placed a fortnight before the Battle of the Golden Tooth, but this quote from Catelyn VIII tells Tywin was moving his army south during Jaime's battle :

"Less than a fortnight past, they fought a battle in the hills below the Golden Tooth," Robb said. "Uncle Edmure had sent Lord Vance and Lord Piper to hold the pass, but the Kingslayer descended on them and put them to flight. Lord Vance was slain. The last word we had was that Lord Piper was falling back to join your brother and his other bannermen at Riverrun, with Jaime Lannister on his heels. That's not the worst of it, though. All the time they were battling in the pass, Lord Tywin was bringing a second Lannister army around from the south. It's said to be even larger than Jaime's host."

and it continues with the telling of Lord "Deric"'s defeat.

The timeline has 22 days between Catelyn V, Catelyn capturing Tyrion, and Eddard XI, Ned hearing the survivors of Gregor's raids at court and sending Beric. That seems a bit short to me. Between the two chapters, all this must happen :

* Tywin get words of Tyrion's capture, calls his banners and masses a host at Casterly Rock

* Edmure learns that, calls his banners, sends riders to know Tywin's intent, gets no answer

* Raymun Darry and his men make camp at Riverrun, Edmure commands the Lords Vance and Piper to guard the pass below the Golden Tooth

* Gregor raids the villages of Sherrer, Wendish Town, and the Mummer's Ford

* Hoster Tully commands Marq Piper and Karyl Vance to take a small force of men, to find the survivors and to bring them to the king

* Raymun Darry returns to his castle, then gets to King's Landing

* Marq Piper and Karyl Vance do take the survivors to King's Landing. The journey itself must have taken at least a fortnight

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And why is that so?

Because the Pink Letter cannot have been written and received by Jon before Stannis pulled his ruse. Also, given how long it takes for crows to travel, Theon's first chapter from The Winds of Winter probably occurred at least a week before Jon's last chapter in A Dance with Dragons, if not more.

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Because the Pink Letter cannot have been written and received by Jon before Stannis pulled his ruse. Also, given how long it takes for crows to travel, Theon's first chapter from The Winds of Winter probably occurred at least a week before Jon's last chapter in A Dance with Dragons, if not more.

The Pink Letter might not contain the full truth, though. We won't be able to say anything about that before Winds comes out.

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Because the Pink Letter cannot have been written and received by Jon before Stannis pulled his ruse. Also, given how long it takes for crows to travel, Theon's first chapter from The Winds of Winter probably occurred at least a week before Jon's last chapter in A Dance with Dragons, if not more.

I would say at least 9 days... 7 days of battle and 2 days for the raven.
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The Pink Letter might not contain the full truth, though. We won't be able to say anything about that before Winds comes out.

I am counting on it not containing the full truth but even if did, it would not change anything. The point is, Ramsay knows that "Arya" was sent to the Wall and is under the impression that Theon was as well. He also knows that Melisandre is there and not with Stannis. This cannot be reconciled with the first Theon chapter from The Winds of Winter occurring before Jon's last chapter in A Dance with Dragons.

I think a fair approximation is that Theon's last chapter takes place roughly ten days before Jon's last chapter.

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I am counting on it not containing the full truth but even if did, it would not change anything. The point is, Ramsay knows that "Arya" was sent to the Wall and is under the impression that Theon was as well. He also knows that Melisandre is there and not with Stannis. This cannot be reconciled with the first Theon chapter from The Winds of Winter occurring before Jon's last chapter in A Dance with Dragons.

I think a fair approximation is that Theon's last chapter takes place roughly ten days before Jon's last chapter.

I agree completely. I understand there are many theories surronding the Pink Letter. But temporally all we have is that it was sent seven days after battle between Stannis and Ramsay. Unless we have additional evidence, Jon XIII, Dance must follow Theon I, Winds.
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