Most Precise ASOIAF Timeline in Existence

[Bright Blue Eyes]

That she had to tell 3 things each of the three days she served at the temple.. Which leads to 18 new things every 2 months..

I'm not entirely sure how correct that is...

ll men must serve.” And so she did, three days of every thirty. When the moon was black she was no one, a servant of the Many-Faced God in a robe of black and white.

I'm not sure where that information about the 18 new things is actually from, and even less whether it is a full list

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Ok, I prepped all the entries for the northern POV changes, but I can't actually put them in until we've fixed the location of Jon 8, as otherwise Jon 9 would occur before Jon 8..

No, there's a full moon every 30 days, so it can't be 45 days before the next full moon. There's 15 days between a new moon and a full moon, but only 7.5 days between a half moon waxing and a full moon, or 22.5 days between a half moon waning and a full moon.

Val tells Jon

“You have my word, Lord Snow. I will return, with Tormund or without him.” Val glanced at the sky. The moon was but half-full. “Look for me on the first day of the full moon.”

So Val seems confident that she can find Tormund rather quickly. When Alys arrives, Jon is convinced that Val has arrived, but she hasn't.. So perhaps she's simply late in returning?

If Val means not the immediately next full moon, but the full moon after that, it would be strange wording, though the timing would work out better..

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

I'm not sure where that information about the 18 new things is actually from, and even less whether it is a full list

I think the 18 things list comes from

“Learn three new things before you come back to us,” the kindly man had commanded Cat, when he sent her forth into the city. She always did. Sometimes it was no more than three new words of the Braavosi tongue. Sometimes she brought back sailor’s tales, of strange and wondrous happenings from the wide wet world beyond the isles of Braavos, wars and rains of toads and dragons hatching. Sometimes she learned three new japes or three new riddles, or tricks of this trade or the other. And every so often, she would learn some secret.

It would seem that someone created a list of 18 things from this?

[Mychel_Redfort]

I think whoever wrote that, took the passage of

Learn three new things before you come back to us, the kindly man had commanded Cat, when he sent her forth into the city.

and

All men must serve. And so she did, three days of every thirty. When the moon was black she was no one, a servant of the Many-Faced God in a robe of black and white.

That she had to tell 3 things each of the three days she served at the temple.. Which leads to 18 new things every 2 months..

I'm not entirely sure how correct that is...

She has to "learn three new things before she comes back", and she comes back only once a moon. The kindly man questioning her first thing when she's returned makes sense, the text only says she's staying the three days without moon, nothing suggests she must answer three times.

Yes, but that chapter is in Feast, not in Dance :cool4:

Since I've made the combined re-read of Feast and Dance, they're just one book to me...

[Jon Weirgaryen]

Since I've made the combined re-read of Feast and Dance, they're just one book to me...

Same here. But to the rest of the readers, they aren't - so I hopefully alway recheck where it is from :)

[Mychel_Redfort]

If Val means not the immediately next full moon, but the full moon after that, it would be strange wording, though the timing would work out better..

Roughly, she estimates it will take her either one week or three weeks to come back with Tormund, what is it that you find is strange wording ? We don't know if the half-moon is waxing or waning, but she does, so she makes perfect sense to Jon, no ?

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

As Jon receives a letter in Jon 8 stating that Selyse wishes to move from Eastwatch, and she actually arrives in Jon 9, can we thus put Jon 8 a day or 9 before Jon 9?

[Chancho]

That is awesome.. thanks for sharing.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Roughly, she estimates it will take her either one week or three weeks to come back with Tormund, what is it that you find is strange wording ? We don't know if the half-moon is waxing or waning, but she does, so she makes perfect sense to Jon, no ?

Yeah, I get that, but the problem is that that doesn't sync up at all with how Lost Melnibonean place Jon 9 and 10 in his overview and explanations earlier.

[Jon Weirgaryen]

The other thing is - whatever Val's estimate was, we never learn if she actually made it back within the time of her estimate.

[Ser Fingerbones]

As Jon receives a letter in Jon 8 stating that Selyse wishes to move from Eastwatch, and she actually arrives in Jon 9, can we thus put Jon 8 a day or 9 before Jon 9?

There's definitely going to be about a week's travel from Eastwatch to Castle Black with carrying all the queen's things and moving rather slowly I imagine as the royalty do, could be more. I'd give it the most amount of time the timeline will allow.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

I think the 18 things list comes from

“Learn three new things before you come back to us,” the kindly man had commanded Cat, when he sent her forth into the city. She always did. Sometimes it was no more than three new words of the Braavosi tongue. Sometimes she brought back sailor’s tales, of strange and wondrous happenings from the wide wet world beyond the isles of Braavos, wars and rains of toads and dragons hatching. Sometimes she learned three new japes or three new riddles, or tricks of this trade or the other. And every so often, she would learn some secret.

It would seem that someone created a list of 18 things from this?

Ok, so definitely not confirmed to be a full list.

Which actually gives us just a lower limit of six months between Arya starting to work with Brusco and murdering Daeron. Probably more. Daeron's murder is therefore during October at the very earliest.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

As to the snow linking The Blind Girl to Jaime's chapters Feast/Dance

The chapter starts with

She opened her eyes and stared up blind at the black that shrouded her, her dream already fading. So beautiful. She licked her lips, remembering. The bleating of the sheep, the terror in the shepherd’s eyes, the sound the dogs had made as she killed them one by one, the snarling of her pack. Game had become scarcer since the snows began to fall, but last night they had feasted. Lamb and dog and mutton and the flesh of man. Some of her little grey cousins were afraid of men, even dead men, but not her. Meat was meat, and men were prey. She was the night wolf.

and shortly later has this:

“What three new things do you know, that you did not know before?”

“I know that some men are saying that Tormo Fregar will surely be the new sealord,” she answered. “Some drunken men.”

“Better. And what else do you know?”

It is snowing in the riverlands, in Westeros, she almost said. But he would have asked her how she knew that, and she did not think that he would like her answer. She chewed her lip, thinking back to last night. “The whore S’vrone is with child. She is not certain of the father, but thinks it might have been that Tyroshi sellsword that she killed.”

The first quote shows that this isn't the first night that it has snowed in Westeros. The second, however, shows that it hasn't been snowing for that long... I'd say that the snows began somewhere in the month prior to Arya dreaming before being woken by the kindly man. So Jaime 7 would then occur within a month of the Blind Girl.

Nymeria's pack can be found at the heights of Darry, right? And Darry is slightly more to the south that Raventree. So the snows should have started with Jaime before they did with Nymeria.. But for Jaime, the snow he sees is the first night of snow, for Nymeria, it is clear that it isn't the first night.. But not more than a few weeks, at most. 3 weeks?

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

The other thing is - whatever Val's estimate was, we never learn if she actually made it back within the time of her estimate.

Completely true.. So basically, it is a useless estimation.. I'll place her some 10 days before Jon 9, unless anyone can find any reason as to why not..

[Ser Fingerbones]

Ok, so definitely not confirmed to be a full list.

Which actually gives us just a lower limit of six months between Arya starting to work with Brusco and murdering Daeron. Probably more. Daeron's murder is therefore during October at the very earliest.

This fails to sync up with the Mercy chapter though, which couldn't take place more than 1-3 months after Dance's epilogue, placing it around July, August or September. Unless the King's Landing story is pushed forward or Harys is somehow delayed before leaving KL, which I find unlikely given the apparent urgency of their money problem.

[Lost Melnibonean]

No, there's a full moon every 30 days, so it can't be 45 days before the next full moon. There's 15 days between a new moon and a full moon, but only 7.5 days between a half moon waxing and a full moon, or 22.5 days between a half moon waning and a full moon.

Oh poo, you're right. Well screw her then. She was wrong. In any event there is no confirmation that Val returned by the time she said she would.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

As to the snow linking The Blind Girl to Jaime's chapters Feast/Dance

The chapter starts with

She opened her eyes and stared up blind at the black that shrouded her, her dream already fading. So beautiful. She licked her lips, remembering. The bleating of the sheep, the terror in the shepherd’s eyes, the sound the dogs had made as she killed them one by one, the snarling of her pack. Game had become scarcer since the snows began to fall, but last night they had feasted. Lamb and dog and mutton and the flesh of man. Some of her little grey cousins were afraid of men, even dead men, but not her. Meat was meat, and men were prey. She was the night wolf.

and shortly later has this:

“What three new things do you know, that you did not know before?”

“I know that some men are saying that Tormo Fregar will surely be the new sealord,” she answered. “Some drunken men.”

“Better. And what else do you know?”

It is snowing in the riverlands, in Westeros, she almost said. But he would have asked her how she knew that, and she did not think that he would like her answer. She chewed her lip, thinking back to last night. “The whore S’vrone is with child. She is not certain of the father, but thinks it might have been that Tyroshi sellsword that she killed.”

The first quote shows that this isn't the first night that it has snowed in Westeros. The second, however, shows that it hasn't been snowing for that long... I'd say that the snows began somewhere in the month prior to Arya dreaming before being woken by the kindly man. So Jaime 7 would then occur within a month of the Blind Girl.

Nymeria's pack can be found at the heights of Darry, right? And Darry is slightly more to the south that Raventree. So the snows should have started with Jaime before they did with Nymeria.. But for Jaime, the snow he sees is the first night of snow, for Nymeria, it is clear that it isn't the first night.. But not more than a few weeks, at most. 3 weeks?

Nymeria's pack is somewhere around the God's eye. ~400 miles from Riverrun. Raventree isn't marked, but should be reasonably close to Riverrun.

The important difference is that Riverrun (and Raventree) are at a higher altitude, in the foothills of the Westerlands. It snows earlier due to altitude, and it snows/rains more often because rainfall catches the mountains.

We can't tell either way, 400 miles is enough for vastly different climate.

This fails to sync up with the Mercy chapter though, which couldn't take place more than 1-3 months after Dance's epilogue, placing it around July, August or September. Unless the King's Landing story is pushed forward or Harys is somehow delayed before leaving KL, which I find unlikely given the apparent urgency of their money problem.

Why? Harys Swift had to leave after Cersei was firmly in power again, travel during winter is damn slow and unreliable and he already spent quite some time in Braavos.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Ok, I prepped all the entries for the northern POV changes, but I can't actually put them in until we've fixed the location of Jon 8, as otherwise Jon 9 would occur before Jon 8..

Val tells Jon

You have my word, Lord Snow. I will return, with Tormund or without him. Val glanced at the sky. The moon was but half-full. Look for me on the first day of the full moon.

So Val seems confident that she can find Tormund rather quickly. When Alys arrives, Jon is convinced that Val has arrived, but she hasn't.. So perhaps she's simply late in returning?

If Val means not the immediately next full moon, but the full moon after that, it would be strange wording, though the timing would work out better..

Nope, she says look for me when the moon is full, not the next full moon. She's just late.

[Lost Melnibonean]

As Jon receives a letter in Jon 8 stating that Selyse wishes to move from Eastwatch, and she actually arrives in Jon 9, can we thus put Jon 8 a day or 9 before Jon 9?

Eight days for travel and one for the bird.

[Lost Melnibonean]

The Wayward Bride, Dance 26 spans part of two days, from the evening before Stanniss attack until the following morning, when Ashas party is taken. That evening, Asha received word from Ramsay at Barrowton that Moat Cailin had been taken. Assuming that Ramsay sent the letter after arriving at Barrowton, The Wayward Bride follows the end of Reek II, Dance 20 by approximately 15 days (approximately 300 mile march from Moat Cailin to Barrowton) and two days for the raven. Add another five days to mark from the beginning of Reek II, Dance 20. Note that Wyman did not sign the letter with the other northern lords, so we should assume that he has not yet arrived from White Harbor. Stannis now knows that Roose is at Barrowton.

In Davos IV, Dance 29, Robett knows that Stannis has captured Deepwood Motte. So, lets say Stannis notified White Harbor of his success by raven, and that Davos IV follows the beginning of The Wayward Bride by three days.

Reek III, Dance 32 begins 16 days after Wyman arrives from White Harbor. The distance between White Harbor and Barrowton is approximately 450 miles, given that Wyman marches at a ponderous pace, we should assume that he covered 15 miles per day, taking about 30 days. So, lets round 30 and 16 to 45 days from Davos IV, Dance 29, presumably the day before Wyman left White Harbor. Roose learns that Stannis has taken Deepwood Motte by Reek III, and Roose decides to march to Winterfell, suggesting that Roose learned of Stanniss capture at that point.

In Jon VII, Dance 35, Jon receives raven from Stannis that he will march on Winterfell. Assuming two days for the raven, The Kings Prize, Dance 42 began 2 days before Jon VII.

So, we have to have approximately 48 days between The Wayward Bride, Dance 46 and the beginning of Stannis march to Winterfell in the Kings Prize, Dance 42.