Jon Weirgaryen Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 @Lost Melnibonean all very well argued and brought together! Thank you lots and even more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lost Melnibonean Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Jon X, Dance 49 should follow Dance 44 by at least 9 days since Flint and Norrey arrive for the Thenn-Karstark wedding. We need one day for the ravens to fly to the mountains, and another eight or so for the men to reach the Wall. Given thaone showed up with a wet nurse, I think we should space this from 10 to 14 days.Ok, the time between Jon IX, Dance 44 and Jon X, Dance 49 should be at least 54 days to allow Theon I in Dance, The Sacrifice, and Theon I in Winds to follw in proper order. And that works out nicely with Tycho's travel from Castle Black to Deepwood Motte to Winterfell, leaving him 47 days to arrive at Mors's camp the day Theon escapes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lost Melnibonean Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Ok, here the most precise timeline for the POVs north of the Neck in the latter half of Dance...Assuming that The King's Prize, Dance 42 is placed correctly on 5/28, The Turncloak, Dance 41 & Jon IX, Dance 44 should be marked on 6/1.Stanniss arrival at the crofter's village should be marked on 7/2.A Ghost in Winterfell, Dance 46 & Arnolf Karstarks arrival at Stannis's camp should be marked on 7/13.Mors Umbers arrival at Winterfell should be marked on 7/17.Theon I, Dance 51 should be placed on 7/18.The Sacrifice, Dance 62 should be placed on 7/21.Theon I, Winds Spoiler should be placed on 7/22.Jon X, Dance 49 should be placed on 7/25.Jon XI, Dance 53 should be placed on 7/26.Jon XII, Dance 58 should be placed on 7/29.Jon XIII, Dance 69 should be placed on 8/2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhaenys_Targaryen Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Ok, a lot had been posted here.. I'll try to work it into the document this week. :)Great work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Fingerbones Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Nice job Lost. Looks good to me. I realize something now that was confusing me.. The King's Prize is on the timeline twice! Both on 5/28 and 6/30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhaenys_Targaryen Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Nice job Lost. Looks good to me. I realize something now that was confusing me.. The King's Prize is on the timeline twice! Both on 5/28 and 6/30. The chapter covers a lot of days. ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Fingerbones Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 The chapter covers a lot of days. ;) Ah, yes. Sorry about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mychel_Redfort Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Currently, the timeline has : 12/25/298 : AGOT 55, Catelyn finds Robb at Moat Cailin, they likely enter the Neck the next day 12/30/298 : AGOT 56, Tyrion meets Tywin at the Inn at the Crossroads 01/02/299 : AGOT 59, Catelyn negotiates with Walder Frey, Robb crosses But Tywin get words that Robb is moving down the causeway in AGOT 56, so that make 4 days for the words to go from the scouters in the Neck to the Inn at the Crossroads. Also, in AGOT 59, the Blackfish tells that Addam Marbrand is retreating south, a command given by Tywin in AGOT 56, so that makes 2 days for the words to go from the Inn at the Crossroads to near the Twins. In both cases, there's not enough time for a rider to bring the words, though we know a rider came to Tywin and he asked him to go back to Marbrand. So is there a problem here, or is it possible to assume that ravens were used to shorten the period ? For example, could the scouters in the Neck have used ravens to send words to Marbrand near the Twins ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bright Blue Eyes Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 In both cases, there's not enough time for a rider to bring the words, though we know a rider came to Tywin and he asked him to go back to Marbrand. So is there a problem here, or is it possible to assume that ravens were used to shorten the period ? For example, could the scouters in the Neck have used ravens to send words to Marbrand near the Twins ? Basically impossible. Ravens can't find an army at all, they need a rookery and that's assuming the scouts carried any. At the time, Tywin did not have access to a single rookery inside the Riverlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lost Melnibonean Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Basically impossible. Ravens can't find an army at all, they need a rookery and that's assuming the scouts carried any. At the time, Tywin did not have access to a single rookery inside the Riverlands.Yeap. You need messengers. Keep in mind they could easily cover 36 miles a day over a few days up to a week. Over as few as two days and easy terrain, they could cover as many as 45 miles in a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mychel_Redfort Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Yeap. You need messengers. Keep in mind they could easily cover 36 miles a day over a few days up to a week. Over as few as two days and easy terrain, they could cover as many as 45 miles in a day. But there's roughly 500 miles between the Inn at the Crossroads and the Twins, and between the Twins and Moat Cailin... Even if rounding up at 50 miles a day, that won't fit with the current dates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Weirgaryen Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Ravens can't find an army at all ... Heh, the ones coming for carrion can :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mychel_Redfort Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 At the time, Tywin did not have access to a single rookery inside the Riverlands. That's not true. In Game 56, Kevin tells Tyrion that he and Tywin have taken Raventree Hall and Harrenhal themselves before making camp at the Inn at the Crossroads. If Addam Marbrand had taken a small castle between the Twins and the Inn, there could be a possibility here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bright Blue Eyes Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 That's not true. In Game 56, Kevin tells Tyrion that he and Tywin have taken Raventree Hall and Harrenhal themselves before making camp at the Inn at the Crossroads. If Addam Marbrand had taken a small castle between the Twins and the Inn, there could be a possibility here. Ok, Raventree and Harrenhal then, though wasn't Raventree already reconquered? Small castles don't have rookeries. Only major Lords and military forticifcations supported by the Lord Paramounts do. Let's call it an average of 15-20 rookeries per region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhaenys_Targaryen Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Currently, more than 1,5 month passes between Stannis taking Deepwood Motte, and Stannis marching from Deepwood Motte for Winterfell. Do we have any reason for that? I know they debated a while at Deepwood whether or not to march for Winterfell, and I know that Roose needs the time to learn of Stannis taking Deepwood, before deciding to go to Winterfell, and marry fArya to Ramsay, and that he needs to arrive before Stannis possibly could, but stilll.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lost Melnibonean Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Currently, more than 1,5 month passes between Stannis taking Deepwood Motte, and Stannis marching from Deepwood Motte for Winterfell. Do we have any reason for that? I know they debated a while at Deepwood whether or not to march for Winterfell, and I know that Roose needs the time to learn of Stannis taking Deepwood, before deciding to go to Winterfell, and marry fArya to Ramsay, and that he needs to arrive before Stannis possibly could, but stilll..I made notes for the 1st half of Dance in the North too. Give me a little time to see if I can nail it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bright Blue Eyes Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Stannis assembled his forces there, all the Glovers hiding from the Ironborn and the survivors from the battle of Winterfell hiding from Ramsay. Those guys had to learn of Stannis taking Deepwood Motte first and then crawl out of the woods. Furthermore, for a time Stannis tried diplomacy again, only the news of Ramsay marying fArya spurred him into military action again. News travelling by courier (or more properly rumour), not by raven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhaenys_Targaryen Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I made notes for the 1st half of Dance in the North too. Give me a little time to see if I can nail it down. Ok. You also have almost 2 months between Dance 44 and Dance 49 in your overview, but state that Jon X, Dance 49 should follow Dance 44 by at least 9 days since Flint and Norrey arrive for the Thenn-Karstark wedding. We need one day for the ravens to fly to the mountains, and another eight or so for the men to reach the Wall. Given thaone showed up with a wet nurse, I think we should space this from 10 to 14 days. That's a difference of 1,5 month..? Or did I make a mistake somewhere? Also, currently, we have Jon 8 on 6/7, when Jon sends Val away. Val can't be away took long, otherwise the knights Selyse brings with her would have reacted quite differently. She leave during a half moon, and says she'll be back by the next full moon, so some 21 days should pass between Val leaving (Dance 39) and Val returning (Jon 10, Dance 49), if we assume Val indeed made the deadline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhaenys_Targaryen Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Stannis assembled his forces there, all the Glovers hiding from the Ironborn and the survivors from the battle of Winterfell hiding from Ramsay. Those guys had to learn of Stannis taking Deepwood Motte first and then crawl out of the woods. Furthermore, for a time Stannis tried diplomacy again, only the news of Ramsay marying fArya spurred him into military action again. News travelling by courier (or more properly rumour), not by raven. Ok, but still, we currently have Stannis leaving only days after the wedding, while, during the wedding-chapter, it is stated that Stannis could be "upon them" within a fortnight (and the Asha chapters specify it was supposed to be a marsh of 15 days only, before the snows came). So the 1,5 month still sounds a bit long, though you are right about the gathering of more men, of course. That's a good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bright Blue Eyes Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The 15 days are actually just an estimate by the rank and file and the atmosphere implies it to be a rather optimistic one, not necessarily the one Stannis believed in. Given the distance, it's indeed very optimistic. Anyway, the message about the marriage got out from Barrowton, about three weeks earlier. Not from Winterfell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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