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How Stannis will win the Iron Throne


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A big part of why I think the Battle of Winterfell will go poorly for Stannis is I think Jon's body will be carted back there after the battle and resurrected in a manner similar to Dany and her Dragons.

This could either make Stannis become a loyal follower of Jon (witnessing resurrection seems to inspire loyalty!), or he might be fuel for the funeral pyre.

There have been several prophecies of a dragon rising from Winterfell, and there are lots room for parallel with Dany.

Dany's case, you combine fire + something you want to come to life (dragon eggs) + royal blood (dead king) + living human sacrifice of a witch (Mira Maz Duur)

Maybe in Winterfell, you combine fire + something you want to come to life (Jon) + royal blood (Dead Stannis/Mance/Theon as a rightful heir to the Iron Islands?) + living human sacrifice of a person/witch (Melisandre/Theon)

I want Stannis to live and bow to the resurrected Jon, but I must admit there's a good chance the Northmen might find it convenient and ironic to throw the Fire Worshippers to the fire. Or, if Stannis dies, I could see Mel, seeing the utter wrongness of her beliefs, burning him and Jon, and throwing herself on the pyre too. In which case she's not around to see AA actually be reborn.

In either case, the best case scenario I see there for Stannis is him bowing to Jon and no longer seeking the crown for himself....

Edit: But that being said, nice theory!

Jon being resurrected in Winterfell is something I never in the slightest considered but now want more than anything else

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Even if Stannis wins Winterfell, taking the Neck is impossible. We had a whole chapter about how tough Moat Caitlin was to take. Plus the Twins are after that.



But, he doesn't really have a strong fleet either anymore, so I don't see him sailing south either.



That leaves one way south: the Vail.



I see him leaving White Harbor to cross to the Vail and circumventing the Neck.



That means Sweetrobin and Shireen need to be married. After Stannis dies, I see Sweetrobin ironically winning the game of thrones.


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Even if Stannis wins Winterfell, taking the Neck is impossible. We had a whole chapter about how tough Moat Caitlin was to take. Plus the Twins are after that.

But, he doesn't really have a strong fleet either anymore, so I don't see him sailing south either.

That leaves one way south: the Vail.

I see him leaving White Harbor to cross to the Vail and circumventing the Neck.

That means Sweetrobin and Shireen need to be married. After Stannis dies, I see Sweetrobin ironically winning the game of thrones.

1. Taking the Moat Caitlin FROM THE SOUTH is hard.

2. You do not need the Twins. Robb did b/c he wanted as fast as possible to Riverrun.

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I don't think that Stannis will survive the "battle of ice" and even if he survives Deanerys will burn him for High Treason to the Targaryen Crown. He invaded the Dragonstone during her birth and was made Lord of Dragonstone. I don't think that he will stand alive by the end of the WoW. He will be killed either by Dany or by the Others during their Invasion.


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I don't think that Stannis will survive the "battle of ice" and even if he survives Deanerys will burn him for High Treason to the Targaryen Crown. He invaded the Dragonstone during her birth and was made Lord of Dragonstone. I don't think that he will stand alive by the end of the WoW. He will be killed either by Dany or by the Others during their Invasion.

Between the "battle of ice" and Dany finally arriving Westeros lies a long, long time.

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1. Taking the Moat Caitlin FROM THE SOUTH is hard.

2. You do not need the Twins. Robb did b/c he wanted as fast as possible to Riverrun.

Now, hold on, the Theon Chapter 20 from ADWD has Moat Cailin attacked from the North by Ramsay and the Crannogmen. The Ironmen have a tiny force (like 60 or something), but they repel them three times. That sounds pretty tough to take.

And with the Twins, you have to remember the Freys are no longer neutral. If Stannis marches south without taking the Twins, they can sandwich him on the Kingsroad at the Trident (Freys from the north, Lannisters from the south).

If I were Stannis' hand, I would totally have him marry Shireen to Sweetrobin, pop over from White Harbor to the Vale and plan my next attack from there. Plus, you could hold out in the Vail forever - its impregnable! On a side note, a Sweetrobin marriage brings Stannis the loyalty of the Riverlands as well (though they're useless now)

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Now, hold on, the Theon Chapter 20 from ADWD has Moat Cailin attacked from the North by Ramsay and the Crannogmen. The Ironmen have a tiny force (like 60 or something), but they repel them three times. That sounds pretty tough to take.

And with the Twins, you have to remember the Freys are no longer neutral. If Stannis marches south without taking the Twins, they can sandwich him on the Kingsroad at the Trident (Freys from the north, Lannisters from the south).

If I were Stannis' hand, I would totally have him marry Shireen to Sweetrobin, pop over from White Harbor to the Vale and plan my next attack from there. Plus, you could hold out in the Vail forever - its impregnable! On a side note, a Sweetrobin marriage brings Stannis the loyalty of the Riverlands as well (though they're useless now)

Thats a little misleading though. I don't have my book with me, but I think Ramsey had a maximum of 600 men at his disposal, and he realistically only took a few hundred down to Mott Calain, and the number of assault troops would be even less than that. Generally the rule is that an attacker needs a 3:1 advantage to overtake the defender, and in that light it's reasonable to see how the defenders beat back three assaults (even though the castle would be easier to take from the north).

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Actually I see him having to deal with the False Aegeon first, then Dany will show up right around when the Others breach the wall, so she and Stannis have to team up, his wife will kick the bucket and together they'll fufill the prophecy (or take credit for it) and marry "for love".

I don't think the Mother of Dragons, Sullier of the Unsullied, Enslaver of Slavers, Silver Mare that Mounts the World, and Raper of Khals is going to marry the Usurper's charming brother in order to improve her claim to the Iron Throne. She can melt the old iron throne down, take all the swords she's captured in her conquest so far, and melt herself a new one, this time with a cupholder and a softer seat. If Stannis sits the iron throne, it'll only be long enough to warm the seat for her.

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Spoilers from GRRM + WoW follow.

So I read this whole thread.

It's like many other threads I read here.

All this talk about leaders, families , forces south of the Wall, Westeros and Essos.

But in 5 novels now George has set up the threat of the Others , north of the Wall, as being a common enemy whos might makes all battles and wars south of the Wall look like hippity-hop-at-the-barber-shop!

It seems the Others are going breach the Wall (I don't mean take the whole Wall down) beat back all the forces there.

I think this will be before Stannis takes Winterfell.

The Boltons will ignore the threat and be whipped out.

The forces at the Wall will join Stannis to fight a delaying action.

Finally someone, somehow in the South will take the aggression of the Others seriously.

Stannis will be elected general (I did not say king) to lead allied forces against the Others.

This force will hold the Others (and their vast army of zombies) at the Neck.

But that is all, Braavos has sensed the threat and convince forces in Essos to come help, where Dany comes in.

If Dany's 'vision' in season 2 E10 is a foreshadowing, KL will be trashed, but I don't think the Others will win.

(Somehow Bran come into play in this and I don't know how.)

In the end I don't think Stannis will sit the IT, it may not be worth sitting anyway!

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Now, hold on, the Theon Chapter 20 from ADWD has Moat Cailin attacked from the North by Ramsay and the Crannogmen. The Ironmen have a tiny force (like 60 or something), but they repel them three times. That sounds pretty tough to take.

And with the Twins, you have to remember the Freys are no longer neutral. If Stannis marches south without taking the Twins, they can sandwich him on the Kingsroad at the Trident (Freys from the north, Lannisters from the south).

If I were Stannis' hand, I would totally have him marry Shireen to Sweetrobin, pop over from White Harbor to the Vale and plan my next attack from there. Plus, you could hold out in the Vail forever - its impregnable! On a side note, a Sweetrobin marriage brings Stannis the loyalty of the Riverlands as well (though they're useless now)

The Neck can't be that difficult to take from the North, the Reeds were kings at some point. If the Neck was so impervious to attack from the North then the Starks couldn't have ever made them vassals.

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