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How Stannis will win the Iron Throne


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Just started another thread in another Forum having not seen this one. A lazy cut & paste as its sort of the same topic but not quite - i'm speculating what I would do if I were Stannis rather than what i think would necessarily happen. Having said that theres is possibly half a point in my post. As a Lord / would be King Stannis is being too 1 dimensional in his approach & use of assets. He thinks its all about military might but is failing to use Shireen as his Heir to expand his power through a marriage alliance. Like I say - might seem a bit incongrous as it s a lazy cut & paste....

I thought it might be fun to put myself in Stannis shoes & figure out my next moves, this ISNT supposed to be what I think Stannis will do as I think his honour would not allow him to follow the plan below, rather its what I would do in his place…

Stannis Baratheon

Best case goal : To be established as the true & rightful king of Westeros

Would settle for: Nothing Less

Current status: Holed up in the snow near Winterfell

Military Strength: c.5,000 with a Sell Sword company of 20,000 to follow

Known Allies: Mel, The Storm Lords, Some Northern Lords (for the time being), A sell sword company (work in progress)

Known Enemies: Lannisters (they stole his Throne)

Heir: Shireen

OK so this all pre-suposes than Stannins survives the upcoming battle for Winterfell…

Stannis wants to be king, becoming King is one thing and staying king is something else entirely. Stannis is currently engaged “up North” pursuing a strategy of freeing Winterfell to “Gain the support of the North” and yet the Iron Throne is a world away in the south. So what are Stannis Baratheons best plays he can make?

Getting an Army

Stannis has already made a good play here – attempting to recruit a quality Sellsword company, this might help win a throne but certainly won’t help him keep it.

Getting some Allies

Strikes me that Stannis’ main issue is that he really needs some friend & allies. I think luck more than judgement might help me here.

1 - If Davos can truly find Rickon Stark I think Davos is loyal enough to seek out Stannis – this would give Stannis a chance not just to Free Winterfell & Elminate Roose & Ramsey Bolton and avenge the Red Wedding with the Freys but also to Restore a Stark to Winterfell and not just any old Stark but a young impressionable Stark who could both rally the North as well as be manipulated into having the North back Stannis in a claim for the Iron throne. However Stannis winning the North doesn’t help in much in Winning the Iron throne as A) I don’t think the Lesser Northern Lords care too much who sits the Iron Throne and certainly don’t care enough to send men South to Support Stannins in a Military Campaign and B) the North is a long way from Kings Landing. I think this can add +15000 to his Army along with the Naval power of White Harbour

2 – Getting the Vale on side. Marriage is the answer – LF is power mad and Stannis can offer Shireen as a match to Sweet Robin meaning LF would then be guardian of the future king (If Stannis wins and If I get my succession lines right). They are of an age and I think this would appeal to LF and give him enough to raise the Vale Lords to support Stannis. A Littlefinger Puppet as King might not appeal to Stan but onces he’s on the Throne he then has plenty of time to get Busy with Sylyse (or Mel!) to get a male heir. I think this can add another +15000 to his army with the added bonus of some much needed supplies from the previously untouched Vale.

3 – Get the Tyrells on side for the pincer movement. Stannis with a sell sword company & some rag tag northerners won’t scare the Iron Throne. Stannis with the above + the Vale gives the Lanninsters & the Tyrells something serious to think about. At this point the Tyrells are the power behind a spent Lannister Throne. Would Mace (or more importantly the QOT) allow house Tyrell to stand behind the Lannisters and decorate the Spikes of kings Landing after Stannis wins. Unlikely, but they currently have the Queen and so something pretty serious to lose. Stannis needs to offer something up and I think the Handship to Mace Tyrell is the natural option here to seal an alliance and turn the Tyrells against the Lannisters, perhaps a marriage pact for any offspring of Shireen & SweetRobin to a suitable Tyrell would seal the deal?

Removing threats to my Kingship

It actually takes a fair amount of effort to win the Iron throne and before the hard work has to come the desire. Many Houses will politk & jockey for position within an established power structure but not so many will rise up in open rebellion. Westeros is weak & vulnerable at the moment which has been a breeding ground for Would be Kings & Queens. As Stannis I would do myself a favour by nipping potential future threats in the bud – notably I would detour to the Iron Islands while they are all away searching for Dany to crush the Ironborn powerbase and decisively remove 1 upstart From the game. Wouldn’t take much militarily and / or time wise and can potentially be delegated to a splinter group of Northern Lords to avenge Theons Capture of Winterfell.

Aegon & Dany are wildcards in this. It strikes me that neither will accept anything other than the Iron Throne so I suspect Stannis would need to defeat 1 or both in the field with no obvious other way to avoid conflict.

So – If I were Stannis I would…..

Marry Shireen to Sweet Robin

Offer Mace Tyrell Handship & a future Marriage Pact (and a royal pardon for Margaery Tyrell if needed) in return for betraying the Lannisters.

March South with my Assembled Northern Lords to Crush House Frey.

Quick Detour to the Iron Islands to destroy the Ironborn power base

Pick up the Vale forces on route KL

Cruise into KL with Mace Tyrell waiting to meet me at the Gate.

Take the field against whichever Dragon turns up first…

What would you do if you were Stannis?

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Just started another thread in another Forum having not seen this one. A lazy cut & paste as its sort of the same topic but not quite - i'm speculating what I would do if I were Stannis rather than what i think would necessarily happen. Having said that theres is possibly half a point in my post. As a Lord / would be King Stannis is being too 1 dimensional in his approach & use of assets. He thinks its all about military might but is failing to use Shireen as his Heir to expand his power through a marriage alliance. Like I say - might seem a bit incongrous as it s a lazy cut & paste....

I thought it might be fun to put myself in Stannis shoes & figure out my next moves, this ISNT supposed to be what I think Stannis will do as I think his honour would not allow him to follow the plan below, rather its what I would do in his place…

Stannis Baratheon

Best case goal : To be established as the true & rightful king of Westeros

Would settle for: Nothing Less

Current status: Holed up in the snow near Winterfell

Military Strength: c.5,000 with a Sell Sword company of 20,000 to follow

Known Allies: Mel, The Storm Lords, Some Northern Lords (for the time being), A sell sword company (work in progress)

Known Enemies: Lannisters (they stole his Throne)

Heir: Shireen

OK so this all pre-suposes than Stannins survives the upcoming battle for Winterfell…

Stannis wants to be king, becoming King is one thing and staying king is something else entirely. Stannis is currently engaged “up North” pursuing a strategy of freeing Winterfell to “Gain the support of the North” and yet the Iron Throne is a world away in the south. So what are Stannis Baratheons best plays he can make?

Getting an Army

Stannis has already made a good play here – attempting to recruit a quality Sellsword company, this might help win a throne but certainly won’t help him keep it.

Getting some Allies

Strikes me that Stannis’ main issue is that he really needs some friend & allies. I think luck more than judgement might help me here.

1 - If Davos can truly find Rickon Stark I think Davos is loyal enough to seek out Stannis – this would give Stannis a chance not just to Free Winterfell & Elminate Roose & Ramsey Bolton and avenge the Red Wedding with the Freys but also to Restore a Stark to Winterfell and not just any old Stark but a young impressionable Stark who could both rally the North as well as be manipulated into having the North back Stannis in a claim for the Iron throne. However Stannis winning the North doesn’t help in much in Winning the Iron throne as A) I don’t think the Lesser Northern Lords care too much who sits the Iron Throne and certainly don’t care enough to send men South to Support Stannins in a Military Campaign and B) the North is a long way from Kings Landing. I think this can add +15000 to his Army along with the Naval power of White Harbour

2 – Getting the Vale on side. Marriage is the answer – LF is power mad and Stannis can offer Shireen as a match to Sweet Robin meaning LF would then be guardian of the future king (If Stannis wins and If I get my succession lines right). They are of an age and I think this would appeal to LF and give him enough to raise the Vale Lords to support Stannis. A Littlefinger Puppet as King might not appeal to Stan but onces he’s on the Throne he then has plenty of time to get Busy with Sylyse (or Mel!) to get a male heir. I think this can add another +15000 to his army with the added bonus of some much needed supplies from the previously untouched Vale.

3 – Get the Tyrells on side for the pincer movement. Stannis with a sell sword company & some rag tag northerners won’t scare the Iron Throne. Stannis with the above + the Vale gives the Lanninsters & the Tyrells something serious to think about. At this point the Tyrells are the power behind a spent Lannister Throne. Would Mace (or more importantly the QOT) allow house Tyrell to stand behind the Lannisters and decorate the Spikes of kings Landing after Stannis wins. Unlikely, but they currently have the Queen and so something pretty serious to lose. Stannis needs to offer something up and I think the Handship to Mace Tyrell is the natural option here to seal an alliance and turn the Tyrells against the Lannisters, perhaps a marriage pact for any offspring of Shireen & SweetRobin to a suitable Tyrell would seal the deal?

Removing threats to my Kingship

It actually takes a fair amount of effort to win the Iron throne and before the hard work has to come the desire. Many Houses will politk & jockey for position within an established power structure but not so many will rise up in open rebellion. Westeros is weak & vulnerable at the moment which has been a breeding ground for Would be Kings & Queens. As Stannis I would do myself a favour by nipping potential future threats in the bud – notably I would detour to the Iron Islands while they are all away searching for Dany to crush the Ironborn powerbase and decisively remove 1 upstart From the game. Wouldn’t take much militarily and / or time wise and can potentially be delegated to a splinter group of Northern Lords to avenge Theons Capture of Winterfell.

Aegon & Dany are wildcards in this. It strikes me that neither will accept anything other than the Iron Throne so I suspect Stannis would need to defeat 1 or both in the field with no obvious other way to avoid conflict.

So – If I were Stannis I would…..

Marry Shireen to Sweet Robin

Offer Mace Tyrell Handship & a future Marriage Pact (and a royal pardon for Margaery Tyrell if needed) in return for betraying the Lannisters.

March South with my Assembled Northern Lords to Crush House Frey.

Quick Detour to the Iron Islands to destroy the Ironborn power base

Pick up the Vale forces on route KL

Cruise into KL with Mace Tyrell waiting to meet me at the Gate.

Take the field against whichever Dragon turns up first…

What would you do if you were Stannis?

Just one thing dude, Manderly is most probably just going to join Stannis anyway now. He's out in the snow with the Freys, they've already had a collision thus far, he is probably just going to turn on them and kill them. Maybe he's already done that.

After that his only choice will be to join Stannis against Bolton and one I imagine he'll be pretty darn happy to take.

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So – If I were Stannis I would…..

Marry Shireen to Sweet Robin

Offer Mace Tyrell Handship & a future Marriage Pact (and a royal pardon for Margaery Tyrell if needed) in return for betraying the Lannisters.

March South with my Assembled Northern Lords to Crush House Frey.

Quick Detour to the Iron Islands to destroy the Ironborn power base

Pick up the Vale forces on route KL

Cruise into KL with Mace Tyrell waiting to meet me at the Gate.

Take the field against whichever Dragon turns up first…

What would you do if you were Stannis?

Right now I don't even see how Stannis should be able to take Winterfell. Leaving the GNC aside he is marching on heavily fortified castle in the middle of the winter. I always appeared to me as pretty stupid move. Although I really can't say if there have been any real alternatives to that.

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Right now I don't even see how Stannis should be able to take Winterfell. Leaving the GNC aside he is marching on heavily fortified castle in the middle of the winter. I always appeared to me as pretty stupid move. Although I really can't say if there have been any real alternatives to that.

A castle who has lost one Frey commander, sent the others out with the extremely treacherous Manderly likely to kill them in the snow, tensions inside the castle with traitors and Roose himself not being able to keep calm.

GRRM doesn't leave hints for no reason. This is Stannis' win coming.

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A castle who has lost one Frey commander, sent the others out with the extremely treacherous Manderly likely to kill them in the snow, tensions inside the castle with traitors and Roose himself not being able to keep calm.

GRRM doesn't leave hints for no reason. This is Stannis' win coming.

Yes, BUT Stannis can't be aware of any of this. Or can he? I don't think so.

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Yes, BUT Stannis can't be aware of any of this. Or can he? I don't think so.

Have you read the Stannis gift chapter? Stannis is gonna win. To the OP, nice topic. My problems with it are two fold. You give good options for what Stannis would want to do, but I think you have other people acting in ways that don't make sense for them. LF marrying sweetrobin to Shireen for one. That completely eliminates LF's power schemes. Sure LF could offer to keep him as Liege Lord of the Riverlands, but he would loose the future loyalty of the lords of the RIverlands if after the Freys are dealt with he backs anyone other than the Tullys, and your still only regiving LF what he already has and taking away options for future growth. Now it would be really interesting if he Married LF to Sansa made him liege lord of the Riverlands and married sweetrobin to Shireen and made him lord protector. That could be tempting to LF depending on what happened in the meantime, but it excludes the possibility of SweetRobin dying before then, and assumes Aegon hasn't already taken the thrown. With Mace, again you have him turning sides to get less then he has now. Again tho things could change that, if some reach lords defect to Aegon and Aegon takes KL Mace would be forced to pick him or someone else, and if Aegon kills Marg/Loras he may side with Stannis, again if things have continually gone well for Stannis up to that point, and Dany has not yet arrived. The biggest thing however is how can Stannis even go south with the impending invasion of Others? In my eyes he can't bring his forces from the North south, which is one reason I like your idea about the Iron Isles because I completely agree it's a great move. Getting Asha to swear fealty then sit her on the Thrown and wait for Euron to screw up, which I anticipate him doing.

Edit: About Baelish... actually if he accepted Stannis' offer and Stannis won, and then he killed Stannis, he would be King Regent, so maybe. It all depends what happens up until that point, I can't see anyone betting on Stannis when Targs are popping up.

Edit again: For the record my theory is that near the end Dany wins the thrown, then gets killed by fm because she wont pay back Baratheon debts, and Stannis sits the thrown in the end.

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Yes, BUT Stannis can't be aware of any of this. Or can he? I don't think so.

See the post below yours:

Have you read the Stannis gift chapter? Stannis is gonna win. To the OP, nice topic. My problems with it are two fold. You give good options for what Stannis would want to do, but I think you have other people acting in ways that don't make sense for them. LF marrying sweetrobin to Shireen for one. That completely eliminates LF's power schemes. Sure LF could offer to keep him as Liege Lord of the Riverlands, but he would loose the future loyalty of the lords of the RIverlands if after the Freys are dealt with he backs anyone other than the Tullys, and your still only regiving LF what he already has and taking away options for future growth. Now it would be really interesting if he Married LF to Sansa made him liege lord of the Riverlands and married sweetrobin to Shireen and made him lord protector. That could be tempting to LF depending on what happened in the meantime, but it excludes the possibility of SweetRobin dying before then, and assumes Aegon hasn't already taken the thrown. With Mace, again you have him turning sides to get less then he has now. Again tho things could change that, if some reach lords defect to Aegon and Aegon takes KL Mace would be forced to pick him or someone else, and if Aegon kills Marg/Loras he may side with Stannis, again if things have continually gone well for Stannis up to that point, and Dany has not yet arrived. The biggest thing however is how can Stannis even go south with the impending invasion of Others? In my eyes he can't bring his forces from the North south, which is one reason I like your idea about the Iron Isles because I completely agree it's a great move. Getting Asha to swear fealty then sit her on the Thrown and wait for Euron to screw up, which I anticipate him doing.

Edit: About Baelish... actually if he accepted Stannis' offer and Stannis won, and then he killed Stannis, he would be King Regent, so maybe. It all depends what happens up until that point, I can't see anyone betting on Stannis when Targs are popping up.

Edit again: For the record my theory is that near the end Dany wins the thrown, then gets killed by fm because she wont pay back Baratheon debts, and Stannis sits the thrown in the end.

IDK how people can go to such lengths to deny a truth so blatantly obvious.

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I don 't know why Stannis reforming the NW is so far fetched. It gives him a way to live, a place to be that's perfect for him, and would be an ideal end to his arch.

Or he can go down south win the throne and send men and supplies to the wall. Stannis' arc revolves around the the realm and the iron throne.

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I don 't know why Stannis reforming the NW is so far fetched. It gives him a way to live, a place to be that's perfect for him, and would be an ideal end to his arch.

Out of all these theories surrounding him yours makes the most sense. He already see's the defense of the wall to be of utmost importance. With lost hope for the IT, there is a chance he moves his army to organize and bolster the NW.

The only sticking point is he blindly follows his conviction the the IT is his. Though even if he makes it, everything tells us he won't make a good king. There is also the emisarry from the Iron Bank of Braavos to consider, they back the enemies of the throne. As Tyrion say's, "they always get their dues in the end."

Which lends he'll continue to fight for the throne.

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This is the textual evidence bit, we have already been told how Stannis gets his royal rumpus to the place he needs to be to be doing the royal rumping. I think we all have a fond spot for westeros most irritating prophet, yes, Patchface has told us already.

“We will march into the sea and out again. Under the waves we will ride seahorses, and mermaids will blow seashells to announce our coming, oh, oh, oh.”

Sounds unintelligable, well think about this. Aurane Waters, Cerseis grand Admiral recently went rogue with her fleet of brand, spanking new War dromonds, including a 3 decked warship - We are told there is a new pirate king of torturers deep in WoW spoiler chapter with a brand spanking new fleet of war dromonds led by a 3 decked warship naming himself Lord of the Waters. (I have a hunch, they are the same person, if you dont get the same hunch Im amazed you got this far to begin with), Aurane Waters is the Bastard of Driftmark, the Bastard son of House Velaryon - who fought for Stannis in the Blackwater as one of his admirals - AND - Velaryons house sigil, is a Seahorse. Look at the prophecy again, Riding seahorses is code for riding in Auranes fleet of dromonds, once again loyal to Stannis.

An alternate for the mermaids can possibly using the western coast route via the iron islands. wherein the ironborn believe that when they die, " they will be feasted in the Drowned God’s watery halls, his every want satisfied by mermaids ".

Also it will be a sorta recreation of 1000 year war Storm God(Stannis of Storms End) vs Grey King (Greyjoy in power) battle.

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Actually I see him having to deal with the False Aegeon first, then Dany will show up right around when the Others breach the wall, so she and Stannis have to team up, his wife will kick the bucket and together they'll fufill the prophecy (or take credit for it) and marry "for love".

Stannis and Dany marrying for love would be the most awesome thing EVER.

Also I never realised Aurane = Seahorse, but now it seems so obvious there can't be any doubt about it.

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To the OP that is a very good interpretation of it. In past bools patchface has shown a disturbing ability of prophecy of other events and that makes his statements then make more sense since they were down right insulting to Jon in the context of what he was talking about. And with Twin dead and Tyrion done Stannis' biggest issue is the fact that their are 30,000 tryell soldiers in KL plus the 6,000 gold cloaks and i think few thousand Lannister soldiers.

Also in reference to one of the other posters the Storm lords aren't following him any more he only had them till the battle of blackwater. The lords with him now are the one that are sworn to Dragonstone which is a former Targ seat for Targs that aren't the current royal Family.

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Interesting theory and worth exploring, but I just do not find Patchface to be a credible source of prophecy. Too many things have to happen for Stannis to take the iron throne.

1. He just does not have the men, nor is he likely to get the man power to take the iron throne. We know he sent Ser Justin Massey to bring back 20k troops for Essos, but this is likely a fool's errand. The GC is already sworn to Aegon and every other company of worth is involved in the siege of Meereen.

2. He just doesn't have the right. This is really all about Jon, Dany, and Aegon. Stannis is respected, Stannis is feared, but Stannis can never win the hearts and minds of lords and small folk. We know that it is likely that Stannis, Jon, and Dany will all be up North for the battle against the "Others." Dany may be crowned already by then and Jon's true parentage is likely to come out.

3. Stannis is connected to the "Red God." The Faith of the Seven will oppose him in the religious civil war that is likely to happen.

4. Lord Manderly agreed to serve Stannis if Davos brings back Rickon, but this is before Jon's true parentage and Robb's letter come to light.

5. Why would Aurane Waters ally with Stannis when Aegon is closer and better positioned to take KL?

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