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Fire Eater

The Rundown of the Dance of Dragons 2.0

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I will post three Phases of the Upcoming second Dance of Dragons. Anyone has any ideas regarding it please voice them

Phase I: Aegon Invades

Stormlands:

Aegon has already invaded the Stormlands. The GC has taken Griffin's Roost, Greenstone on Estermont,

Rain House, Crow's Nest, Tarth, Mistwood, and Storm's End.



Aegon will have the Stormlands. Dorne will follow next.

From tze

Prince Doran pressed the onyx dragon into her palm with swollen, gouty fingers, and whispered, "Fire and blood."

He is highborn enough to make a worthy consort, she[Arianne] thought. Father would question my good sense, but our children would be as beautiful as dragonlords.

These same thoughts could also be about Aegon.

Doran Martell and his Norvoshi wife had spent half their marriage apart and the other half arguing. It was the only rash thing his father had ever done, to hear some tell it, the only time he had followed his heart instead of his head, and he had lived to rue it.

TWoW Arianne I

Pretty boys had ever been her weakness, particularly the ones who were dark and dangerous as well. That was before, when I was just a girl, she told herself. I am a woman now, my father’s daughter. I have learned that lesson.

The only thing Doran had ever been considered to have done rashly is his marriage. Arianne thinks of herself as her father's daughter, and she may reflect that in her marriage to Aegon.



Arianne will marry Aegon, and be his queen. Also, the first Princess Daenerys, Daeron's sister, was in love with the bastard Daemon Blackfyre, and married a Dornishman, Maron Martell who fought against Daemon Blackfyre. It was Daenerys's marriage to a Martell that helped to lead to the first Blackfyre Rebellion. It will be Aegon's marriage to a Martell instead of Daenerys that helps to lead to the war. We also get Princess Arianne Martell was in love a bastard named Daemon, completing the parallel to Daenerys.

Oldtown:

"The Ravenry is the oldest building at the Citadel," Alleras told him, as they crossed over the slow-flowing waters of Honeywine. "In the Age of Heroes it was supposedly the stronghold of a pirate lord who sat here robbing ships as they came down the river."

In this case, a pirate lord (Euron) will be coming down the Honeywine River. He will have the longships carried overland, like Vikings did in the real world, to the waters of the Honeywine river. He will attack from behind where the Hightowers least expect it.

The gates of the Citadel were flanked by a pair of towering green sphinxes with the bodies of lions, the wings of eagles and the tails of serpents.

The Celtic griffin had the body of a lion and the wings of an eagle, and in some other cases, the tail of a serpent. This foreshadows Connington coming to Oldtown. He will be Oldtown's savior in that battle.

I think the battle will turn out to be something reminiscent of the Battle of Redgrass Field. Like Baelor Breakspear arriving with forces of Dornishmen and Stormlanders to surprise the Blackfyre army and take them in the rear, Connington will bring his forces made up of Dornishmen and Stormlanders surprise the Ironborn and crush them against the city walls, and aiding Oldtown to win their allegiance.

If King's Landing loses Oldtown and the Arbor, the whole realm will fall to pieces, he [sam] thought

KL will lose Oldtown and the Arbor when Lords Hightower and Redwyne swear fealty to Aegon as a reward for aiding them. In the first Dance of Dragons, Aegon II had the support of Oldtown and according to Tyrion, the Stormlands.

Other Reach lords:

"Even after a century some of us still have friends in the Reach."

The Peakes of Starpike and other former Blackfyre supporters in the Reach will flock to Aegon. Tarly will also join Aegon partly for the slights Mace gave him. First, by hogging all the credit for the Battle of Ashford, and then by giving Brightwater Keep to his son, Garlan, when Tarly's wife was second in line for the castle. Given Tarly's attitude regarding his sons, he may prefer a king like Aegon who fights his own battles over plump, little Tommen who likes to play with his kittens. Another reason could be his admiration for Connington.

a well-thumbed tome about the erotic adventures of a young slave girl in a Lysene pillow house, and the fourth and final volume of The Life of Triarch Belicho, a famous Volantene patriot whose unbroken succession of conquests and triumphs ended rather abruptly when he was eaten by giants.

Serra, Aegon's likely mother, was from a Lysene pillow house according to Illyrio, and Aegon's campaign before Dany arrives will likely be an unbroken succession of conquests and triumphs, given that the opposition is led by Mace and Cersei. Since we know giants are vegetarians, Aegon's campaign will end when Dany contests with him with Tyrion, referred to as a giant, commanding her forces.

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Phase II: Dany Invades

Where will Dany land?

Answers: The Vale and Dragonstone

Dragonstone:




Good find.

Notice that Stannis also said that the Imp would not perch on Jon's father's seat whilst he lived, so I think a case can be made that the foreshadowing here also involves Tyrion. One way to look at it is to say that Tyrion will go back to Winterfell, Ned's seat (which I do think is possible). However, most of us believe that Rhaegar is Jon's actual father, and where was this prince's seat? Dragonstone.

With this in mind, I think there is some decent foreshadowing that Tyrion will go to Dragonstone/is heavily connected to the place. Tyrion has been described as a Gargoyle many times now in this series, by several characters, including himself. In fact, this is the very first description we get of Tyrion in the series:



Other instances:











The way Davos pats the gargoyle on the head for luck here is similar to the way the Volantene guards rubbed Tyrion's head for luck in ADWD.

And then the strongest of them in terms of foreshadowing imo:



There are exactly two locations that have been described as having Gargoyles in this series: Dragonstone and Winterfell.

So with regards to Stannis's line, that 'the imp will not perch on Jon's father's seat whilst he lives', we've got decent foreshadowing that Tyrion will "perch" on Dragonstone (Rhaegar's seat) and/or Winterfell (Ned's seat) whilst Stannis is "dead".

In Theon's TWOW preview chapter that got released, Stannis not so subtly told Justin Massey that he might fake his own death, so this foreshadowing could hold true without Stannis actually being dead. He could just still be in hiding after faking his death when Tyrion goes to one or both of these places. Just mentioning that to put the hearts of uber Stannis fans at ease :)




Dragonstone is where Dany was born and her family's ancestral seat. It also sits at the mouth of Blackwater Bay giving it a good strategic location.

The Vale:

"There has been no king in the Vale for three hundred years," Petyr Baelish pointed out.
"The dragons came," Lord Nestor agreed.

Dragons came the last time there was a monarch in the Vale; so when dragons come again, it will mean there is a monarch in the Vale again, Dany.

This is Andalos, my friend. The land your Andals came from.

and another where someone had chiseled the seven-pointed star of the new gods upon a boulder. Petyr said that marked one of the places the Andals had landed when they came across the sea to wrest the Vale from the First Men.

Tyrion takes on the alias Hugor Hill in his journey with Connington, after the legendary king of the Andals. Tyrion passes through Andalos, the land of the Andals who invaded the Vale from across the Narrow Sea. Tyrion will have Dany land in the Vale, possibly in the Fingers close to LF's lands.

I think Tyrion would advise her to land in the Vale, especially since he advised Aegon to land in Dorne, so it's already taken. The Vale was untouched by the war, and is still at full reserves along with being a good base for launching an invasion. It's vulnerable from invasion by sea yet protected from counterattack from the rest of Westeros by the Mountains of the Moon and the Bloody Gate, with the mountains inhabited by the mountain clans whom Tyrion has good contacts with. Another main reason being that Tyrion is still itching to pay his debt to the Vale for Lysa's treatment of him.

In the first Dance of Dragons, the Vale fought on Rhaenyra's side and so in the second the Vale will fight on Dany's side. Dany will also have some aspects of Visenya in her story. Visenya gave the boy king Ronnel Arryn a ride on her dragon and won the Vale. Dany may give Robert Arryn a ride on one of her dragons, appealing to Robert wanting to be like the Winged Knight who could fly along with some other promise.

Crackclaw Point:

Aegon sent his sister up to Crackclaw, the Visenya. The lords had heard o' Harren's end. Being no fools, they laid their swords at her feet. The queen took them as her own men

This foreshadows the clans of Crackclaw Point supporting Dany. Crackclaw Point is south of the Vale, where Dany will land, across the Bay of Crabs. They will lay their swords at her feet when they hear of her dragons and see them. I know some people would have Crackclaw Point side with Aegon, but to get to Aegon they would have to get past KL and Mace Tyrell's army and his bannermen in the Reach.

ETA:

In TPtQ, it is mentioned that the lords of Crackclaw Point supported Rhaenyra.

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I think the battle will turn out to be something reminiscent of the Battle of Redgrass Field. Like Baelor Breakspear arriving with forces of Dornishmen and Stormlanders to surprise the Blackfyre army and take them in the rear, Connington will bring his forces made up of Dornishmen and Stormlanders to aid Oldtown to win their allegiance, and surprise the Ironborn and crush them against the city walls.

I agree with this point

The symmetry here with Mereen would be perfect as well. According to the Barristan chapter, the Iron Born arrive from behind and crush the slave armies. Barristan even remarks in the chapter that its just like "the hammar and the anvil." It seems in the chapter as if Vic's assault may end up saving Mereen. Connington serves much the same purpose for Aegon as Barristan does for Dany, and a situation playing out in Oldtown where Connington works as the hammer to crush the Iron Born while Vic works as the hammer to crush the slavers in Mereen would be perfect symmetry.

On another note, I'd like to add that its more than possible for Aegon to get the support of the new High Septon and the militarized Faith militant. If Cercei survives her trial, its very likely that she would run them out of the capital. Since Hightower was once the religious capital for the Faith, I count it as pretty much certain that if Aegon saves the city the new High Septon would return to the city and crown Aegon there the same way that Aegon I was crowned three-hundred years earlier.

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well aegon has to get a dragon as well since he can't go to war with dany having atleast 1 how he will get one i have no idea.

He is the dragon.

He seems to be doing fine without literal dragons at the moment. Dany will have three dragons while he has none, but he will have a large army to back him up and Dany's dragons are still not yet fully grown.

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The Peakes of Starpike and other former Blackfyre supporters in the Reach will flock to Aegon.

Thorough post but I'm not sure former Blackfyre supporters will also support (f)Aegon. Although I believe Aegon to be a Blackfyre, he will pass himself off as Aegon VI, a Targaryen, to Westeros. I doubt the people (Varys and Illyrio) who know his true parentage will ever reveal to anyone even to gain support.

I realize this minor quibble barely changes anything in what is shaping up to be a DWD part 2.

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Very nice, Fire Eater. Dragonstone is a solid first guess, though I'd guess Crackclaw would be next before moving on Harrenhal, which is conveniently held by the man who worshipped her mother. (I almost forgot about Crackclaw entirely.)

While Vale is important, it's rugged and would be hard to move troops through, especially with the snows that are sure to come -- one reason I'd pick Harrenhal over that, though they may make a move there after.

Other Reach lords:

"Even after a century some of us still have friends in the Reach."

Tarly will also join Aegon partly for the slights Mace gave him. First by hogging all the credit for the Battle of Ashford, and then by giving Brightwater Keep to his son, Garlan when Tarly's wife was second in line for the castle. Given Tarly's attitude regarding his sons, he may prefer a king like Aegon who fights his own battles over plump, little Tommen who likes to play with his kittens. ANother reason, coould be his admiration for Connington.

On this, I'd wager Tarly has been plotting for a while. That could very well be who one of the main friends in the Reach are. You're right that he hasn't been given credit, and like any other lord he naturally wants to see his house advance. That and his line about the Golden Company being adventurers doesn't fit the man -- or any commander with knowledge of Westeros' history. Sounds like he was purposely trying to play it down. If that's true, perhaps that's also why he was so hard on Sam as a child.

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The gates of the Citadel were flanked by a pair of towering green sphinxes with the bodies of lions, the wings of eagles and the tails of serpents.

The Celtic griffin had the body of a lion and the wings of an eagle, and in some other cases, the tail of a serpent. This foreshadows Connington coming to Oldtown. He will be Oldtown's savior in that battle.

nice catch, this part has never occurred to me before nor have I seen it on other threads, If JC smashes the Iron born at Oldtown before they can take it, the Hightowers will rally to Aegon as they have always been Targaryen loyalists, as the Hightowers are one of the most powerful houses in the Reach others will follow and also because of the GC having friends in the Reach, makes sense.

Its Tarly that I find a problem with, he has been wronged by Mace, but Tarly is soldier to the bone, he still believes in loyalty and honour even if he is a hard man, we have enough text to see that Tarly has been wronged by Mace but no text to suggest that Tarly is the kind of person who will turn his cloak, and there is also Mace, Mace might change sides as well if he sees that he can no longer hold on to power and loose more than half the Reach, he is power hungry and ambitious but not a complete fool, although a little.

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My only question is the go east to go west thing. I somehow thought that meant Dany would head east and up landing in west Westeros....

Also since Victarion if he lives will be commandeering her ships, wouldn't it make sense for him to want to land on the iron isles and launch an attack on Euron who he loathes...

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The gates of the Citadel were flanked by a pair of towering green sphinxes with the bodies of lions, the wings of eagles and the tails of serpents.

The Celtic griffin had the body of a lion and the wings of an eagle, and in some other cases, the tail of a serpent. This foreshadows Connington coming to Oldtown. He will be Oldtown's savior in that battle.

A griffin is not a sphinx. A sphinx has the head of a human (gyno- or andro-) and the forepaws of a lion, whereas a griffin has the head and forefeet of a bird of prey. One would think that if GRRM wished to make such a foreshadowing, he'd get the mythical creature right.

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Very nice, Fire Eater. Dragonstone is a solid first guess, though I'd guess Crackclaw would be next before moving on Harrenhal, which is conveniently held by the man who worshipped her mother. (I almost forgot about Crackclaw entirely.)

While Vale is important, it's rugged and would be hard to move troops through, especially with the snows that are sure to come -- one reason I'd pick Harrenhal over that, though they may make a move there after.

Thank you, and while it is hard to move troops through the Mountains of the Moon, the armies of Vale combined with the mountain clans could move through the snow, and Dany is the kind of person who would do it. Harrenhal is too far inland, and Dany has bigger fish to fry, namely Aegon.

nice catch, this part has never occurred to me before nor have I seen it on other threads, If JC smashes the Iron born at Oldtown before they can take it, the Hightowers will rally to Aegon as they have always been Targaryen loyalists, as the Hightowers are one of the most powerful houses in the Reach others will follow and also because of the GC having friends in the Reach, makes sense.

Its Tarly that I find a problem with, he has been wronged by Mace, but Tarly is soldier to the bone, he still believes in loyalty and honour even if he is a hard man, we have enough text to see that Tarly has been wronged by Mace but no text to suggest that Tarly is the kind of person who will turn his cloak, and there is also Mace, Mace might change sides as well if he sees that he can no longer hold on to power and loose more than half the Reach, he is power hungry and ambitious but not a complete fool, although a little.

Tarly, like any other lord, would fight on what he believed to be the winning side, and a proud man like him can be weened away from Mace. I don't think Mace will switch sides since Tommen is still married to Margaery, and he values his word. I don't think he will lose more than half the reach by the time Dany arrives.

My only question is the go east to go west thing. I somehow thought that meant Dany would head east and up landing in west Westeros....

Also since Victarion if he lives will be commandeering her ships, wouldn't it make sense for him to want to land on the iron isles and launch an attack on Euron who he loathes...

GRRM said Qarth is as far east we would go in the series. Even Victarion wouldn't try landing west since it is unnecessary, as well as risky sailing in the world's largest uncharted ocean with no known ports to resupply. The Narrow Sea would be the most practical route.

I don't think Victarion will journey with Dany back to Westeros

Dany's description of Drogon: I am looking into hell

Victarion: "I could sail the Iron Fleet to hell if need be."

"Only their shadows," Moqorro said. "One most of all. A tall and twisted thing with one black eye and ten long arms, sailing on a sea of blood."

"You ought to see it [Dothraki Sea] when it blooms, all dark red flowers from horizon to horizon, like a sea of blood."

"There are tales of dragons who grew so huge that they could pluck giant krakens from the seas."

Drogon will likely pluck Victarion from the Dothraki Sea when Victarion goes looking for Dany.

A griffin is not a sphinx. A sphinx has the head of a human (gyno- or andro-) and the forepaws of a lion, whereas a griffin has the head and forefeet of a bird of prey. One would think that if GRRM wished to make such a foreshadowing, he'd get the mythical creature right.

I know the difference between the griffin and a sphinx. I was providing the description of the Celtic griffin, your description was Greek. The heads aren't described, and that helps to clue one in on Connington coming to Oldtown.

Phase III of how the Dance of Dragons 2.0 will go down and end will be coming up later.

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snip

The fingers is close to the Three sisters IIRC and Crack Claw point is in the crownlands isolated at the coast, to land at fingers would be like going around the coast of the Vale to the north passing Gulltown and most of the vale to its northest lands, Gulltown would be the most probable landing as the Graftons once fought for the Targaryens in Robert's Rebellion and is close from Dragonstone whereas the fingers are at more distance. Well Strategically this makes more sense but I also see your point about the fingers being one of the places where the Andals landed.

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Fire Eater, there's the image of an onyx elephant in Doran's reddened hand as Arianne enters the room and sits to speak with him. The Golden Company just happens to use elephants in battle and Harry Strickland seems very concerned about them.

I'll read the rest of this tomorrow and have some more comments, need to get some sleep.

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Very nice, Fire Eater. Dragonstone is a solid first guess, though I'd guess Crackclaw would be next before moving on Harrenhal, which is conveniently held by the man who worshipped her mother. (I almost forgot about Crackclaw entirely.)

His first love was Rhaella, then he dedicated himself to the faith. If the faith declares for Aegon he'll declare for Aegon, then when Dany turns up he'll turn cloak for his first love.

Harwyn Plumm most likely rules Darry in practice if not in name. If Harwyn/Amerei survive the Brotherhood long enough they'll likely fall the same side Ben Plumm falls on, which will likely be wherever Tyrion does.

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Thank you, and while it is hard to move troops through the Mountains of the Moon, the armies of Vale combined with the mountain clans could move through the snow, and Dany is the kind of person who would do it.

Fire Eater, I'm not sure I've seen evidence for an alliance between the mountain clans and the traditional houses of the Vale. In fact there are reasons to suggest relations between the two groups are worse than ever, the big one being Tyrion's arming of the mountain clans. There's background chatter in several of Sansa's chapters since arriving in the Vale about kidnappings, rapes, and general lawlessness of a better armed mountain clans. Where do those arms come from, Tyrion Lannister. I actually think it makes much more sense for her allies from the Vale to be the clans, not the traditional houses, I also can't see all of the allying. Further, while the Vale lords might have followed their child lord when he sold his kingdom for a ride on a full grown dragon, I can't see them doing it again for an adolescent dragon. They've shown they want possession of Robert, and control of him, do they respect him, his decisions, Littlefinger's as his guardian? All of those are unknowns and just as likely to be the opposite this time around as not. The clans actually fit the people gathering to Dany's cause currently, even. More so than the traditional powers.

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my first problem with Dance 2.0 is that (f)A doesnt have a dragon and D has 3!!!even if he grow wings D would still have 2!!! more.

Then in Dance 1.0 he killed his sister,she gets EATEN!!!and her son was looking at it.So by yours logic D will get son(dragon maybe) and (f)A will let his dragon eat D in front of him(dragon)

so at the end (f)A wins?

I DONT THINK SOO!!!

JON WINS(kills others and get IT)

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@Stoned Dragon

Good catch with the symmetry.

Fire Eater, I'm not sure I've seen evidence for an alliance between the mountain clans and the traditional houses of the Vale. In fact there are reasons to suggest relations between the two groups are worse than ever, the big one being Tyrion's arming of the mountain clans. There's background chatter in several of Sansa's chapters since arriving in the Vale about kidnappings, rapes, and general lawlessness of a better armed mountain clans. Where do those arms come from, Tyrion Lannister. I actually think it makes much more sense for her allies from the Vale to be the clans, not the traditional houses, I also can't see all of the allying. Further, while the Vale lords might have followed their child lord when he sold his kingdom for a ride on a full grown dragon, I can't see them doing it again for an adolescent dragon. They've shown they want possession of Robert, and control of him, do they respect him, his decisions, Littlefinger's as his guardian? All of those are unknowns and just as likely to be the opposite this time around as not. The clans actually fit the people gathering to Dany's cause currently, even. More so than the traditional powers.

The Arryn bannermen are loyal to Jon Arryn's son the way the Stark bannermen are loyal to Ned's children, and will support Stannis for them. Drogon managed to create a high death toll even at his size in Meereen, and Dany's dragons will much larger by the time she reaches the Vale given their growth rate, large enough to pluck a man off the ground with their heads. I think they will offer SW more than just a dragon ride, but promise to bring Alayne back to him safe and sound.

Not to mention Dany already has a large army of her own. I think LF will be dead by the time Dany lands. I think Tyrion will use his contacts with the mountain clans to help, and may even work out a deal, like possibly restoring the lands taken from their ancestors in the Vale. If Baelor Breakspear could make traditional enemies, Stormlanders and Dornishmen, fight together at the Battle of the Redgrass Field, than Dany and Tyrion can likely do the same.

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I mostly agree, except i wonder about Euron's role in all this, he's mentioned too many times by Moraqqo though i do think Sam will slay something/someone important with a bow. Tyrion will be made Euron's fool and he and Sansa will scheme to end both Euron and Littlefinger?

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I mostly agree, except i wonder about Euron's role in all this, he's mentioned too many times by Moraqqo though i do think Sam will slay something/someone important with a bow. Tyrion will be made Euron's fool and he and Sansa will scheme to end both Euron and Littlefinger?

I think the Greyjoys' are meant to help the Targaryan ascendency.

Euron getting defeated at Oldtown would not only cement Aegon as a legitimate contender for the throne, but it would finally undercut Euron and perhaps give the Damphair some room to undermine him or even call for that new Kingsmoot (since Theon wasn't present at the first one its technically null and void).

Vic is helping Dany fight not only the slavers in Mereen but probably with the Volantis fleet that should be sailing in right behind them. But once the fighting is over, nobody is going to let Vic steal Dany's dragons (certainly not Moqorro who sees Dany as his religion's messiah). He could easily die in Mereen or in the sea voyage back to Westeros, leaving Dany with a Navy that could contend with the Redwyn fleet (who I think will throw in with Aegon) and Manderly's fleet (if Stannis decides to use those ships to come South).

Also, if Euron and Vic die going up against the Targaryans than Asha and Theon suddenly become a lot more valuable as prisoners to Stannis.

Sorry for rambling, but I guess I'd say that Euron/Vic aren't really destined for the world much longer. Their deaths would do too much to accelerate the consolidation thats taking place in the North and the South.

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