The Rundown of the Dance of Dragons 2.0

[WinterKing]

Excellent post, but what Stannis would do about fAegon,or you believe he would be dead by the time?

[Fire Eater]

Excellent post, but what Stannis would do about fAegon,or you believe he would be dead by the time?

Stannis will think Aegon is a fake, that is what Mel will tell him. I think Stannis will be busy in the North until he is able to come south. My crackpot theory is that Cersei may get the HS to send some of the Faith Militant north with Lannister men to conquer the North in the name of the Seven and root out the faith of the Old Gods and Red Faith akin to the Northern Crusades in the real world. They would keep Stannis busy at Moat Cailin.

[Ser Pollo Loco]

Jon is busy at the Wall dealing with the Others while Dany is busy regaining her family's throne. Jon won't be King in the North since Rickon will be revealed, and Jon would have no seat since WF is taken along with the title of king, taken by Stannis. When is Jon going to decide to become the KitN when he has the incoming Long Night to deal with?

I disagree, I think Jon takes the crown with an asterisk, he'll be kitn till someone unites the other kingdoms, Jon has to be somewhat involved with the south the north needs food and he needs dragonglass. As far as Jon being tied to the wall in winds, it's most likely, but he may be operating closely with bloodraven and Bran and he may understand the Others time table better

[Fire Eater]

After that came a savory snake stew, chunks of seven different sorts of snake slow-simmered in dragon peppers and blood oranges and a dash of venom to give it good bite.

All Dornishmen were snakes, and the Martells were the worst of them.

I think we will see seven members of the Martell family die in the series, with the snakes described as simmered in dragon peppers to hint at the reasons for their demise. Quentyn is already dead. When a weak Doran hears about what happened Quentyn, it will kill him. Arianne will perish in the second Dance of Dragons.

Half of the Sand Snakes will accompany Arianne to the grave. Oberyn's daughters Obara, Tyene and Nymeria are on the list of those who might die in the Dance of Dragon 2.0.

I think Elia Sand may die as she is named for Oberyn's late sister and is akin to the KoLT, Lyann; not good omens. I'm reluctant to name Sarella as one since she is the only one of the Sand Snakes who seems to be using her brain, and she isn't involved with House Martell's political dealings.

[The Idiots Lantern]

I think Dany will, at first, be psyched that her nephew is alive after all, around her age, and they can wed and bring the Targaryans back for real. (she'll put her husband aside. He'll be dead soon anyway.)

Of course, this won't work out. For one, Aegon will probably have already married Adrianne Martell, who probably WON'T be enthusiastic about the idea of having a sister-wife. And for another, I think Dany is going to be convinced (by evidence, she won't automatically come to this conclusion), that Aegon is a fake, and it's gonna go down about as well as the truth of Joffery's parentage did. She'll confront Aegon about it, he'll be mortally insulted and say or do something foolish, things will escalate, one or the other will issue an ultimatum and the Dance will begin.

[Veltigar]

I think you are on to something with your Dany scenario but I'm not a big fan of your Faegon scenario: I’ll break my scenario down into points.

1) Faegon takes Stormsend and gets acquainted with Arianne

2) The Ironborn take Oldtown and they deal out a devastating blow to the Tyrells. This defeat is necessary because it would work as a catalyst for other storylines.

Firstly the Tyrells now are too strong, it’s impossible for anyone to defeat them right now. If the Tyrells lose their main force, there largest city and their own castle (Martin confirmed that we were going to see Highgarden and I figure that a Willas/Garlan/Olena POV prologue were we see Highgarden taken and the Tyrell host vanquished would be the perfect opportunity) they can be defeated. This would lead to the first Reach lords defecting to Faegon (they search for a strong leader, and who could be better than the boy that took Stormsend. Also, nobody leaves a winning team. If the Tyrells win this or come out of this relatively unharmed no Lord would be mad enough to defect).

Secondly a Tyrell defeat would lead to a massive power vacuum. The Ironborn won the battle but there are still too little Iron Islanders to occupy the entire Reach (They can only hold the land close to water). Faegon and his advisors will surely see the opportunity, but they’ll also realize that they don’t have enough men. They need the Dornish spears and so Faegon + Arianne comes to pass.

Thirdly Sams storyline. If the Ironborn take Oldtown, than Sam has to flee. I imagine him, Sarella and Gilly fleeing towards Arianne and Stormsend, probably with the book that Jaqen wants (which of course contains valuable information about dragons, which would make the upcoming war between Dany and Faegon much more interesting). Also, Sam could then be confronted with Randyll Tarly and show him that he has grown a pair up north.

3) Ungregor wins Cerseis trial, the Dornish arrive to stir things up

4) Mace, troubled by his massive defeat in the Reach and the loss of some family members, panics when the Faith declares Margaery guilty. He orders his men to attack the Faith and protect his daughters.

5) Carnage in Kingslanding; Margaery dies; The Dornish use the confusion to settle their scores. Tommen dies. Tyene, Lady Nim meet their maker with the help of Ungregor. The Faith loses the battle and they flee the city

6) The Faith Militant declares for Faegon

7) Randyll Tarly and other Reach Lords jump on Faegons bandwagon (They might jump ship before the massacre, but they wouldn’t defect in large enough numbers. If Mace loses it and attacks the Faith they’ll break way in large numbers)

8) Cersei crowns Myrcella Queen on the IT before evacuating the city.

9) Faegon takes Kingslanding. At the same time Dany takes the Vale (I believe that Dany is going to take Volantis and Pentos before going to Westeros with would lead to her delay. When she takes the Vale she’ll burn HtH and LF with her dragons. Sansa is given custody over SweetRobin and the Vale declares for Dany). Varys emerges from his hiding place.

10) Dany and Faegon face off, things go sour.

From this point it gets hard to predict anything (other than the Fact that Faegon is going to die); so this is my crackpot scenario:

11) Dany books some successes, Aegon takes some loses

12) Faegon uses the knowledge from the book to steal/hurt/kill Dany’s dragons.

13) Crackpot: Varys influence over the boy grows, as does that of Septa Lemore (and if Illyrio survived Dany’s taking of Pentos his influence as well) and Randyll Tarly. JonCon sees his influence decrease, he feels left out and at that moment he’ll start picking up the clues that Faegon is in fact not Rhaegars son. Enraged by the deceit and the fact that they tried to take advantage of his Silver Prince, he demands satisfaction. Varys confirms his suspicions and then tries to kill JonCon (Poison, crossbow, knife, you name it). The attack would have killed a normal guy, but thanks to the Greyscale he isn’t killed. JonCon than takes out Varys (and possibly Faegon himself).

14) If Faegon still lives than he’ll do something rash, and fall for a plot that he couldn’t have for seen without Varys.

15) Faegon burns to a crisp

[Winterz]

I think people underestimate the Reach's bannermen loyalty towards House Tyrell. By all accounts, up to the last few years the Tyrells were great to them. It seems a bit silly that the 3 most powerful houses of the Reach would just flock to (f)Aegon that easily. Tarly may have more so reasons yes, but he's been utterly loyal so far.

[Fire Eater]

I think people underestimate the Reach's bannermen loyalty towards House Tyrell. By all accounts, up to the last few years the Tyrells were great to them. It seems a bit silly that the 3 most powerful houses of the Reach would just flock to (f)Aegon that easily. Tarly may have more so reasons yes, but he's been utterly loyal so far.

Yet in the Dance of Dragons, Oldtown backed Aegon, GRRM put that there for a reason. We don't know how well the Tyrells treated their bannermen, so I don't know how we can know if their treatment of their bannermen was "great". Calling something "silly" is not a good counterargument by the way.

[Winterz]

Except for the Florents when Stannis crowned himself, all of the Reach's bannermen went to support House Tyrell without question against the (alledgly) legitimate Iron Throne. It could be because Joffrey was a terrible king but then again why would they also follow their liege lords in protecting a King even worse than Joffrey during Robert's Rebellion.

This certainly implies loyalty. Also, House Tyrell was never described as ruthless or cruel rulers again implying that their loyalty doesn't come out of fear like is the case with some Lannister bannermen.

There were never reports of rebellions nor other conflicting situations within the Reach against House Tyrell besides this said House Hightower desertion but still in a far different situation. I'm not well acquainted with the DoD so I can certainly be wrong, but that was 150 years ago and we don't know circumstances and besides, 150 years is a lot for House Tyrell to strengthen their own position as Liege lords. Assuming they will simply feel loyalty towards Aegon as to go all way even to betray their liege lords is a big assumption I say. Let's not even forget that Mace Tyrell is married to a Hightower himself.

As for the whole Tarly thing, I understand he might've found it disrespectful for his lack of commendation but would he go as far as to betray the liege lords he follows faithfully for years just because they granted a castle (that wasn't his to begin with) to Garlan Tyrell, who very much deserved it.

Apologies if I sounded rough with the whole "a bit silly" but in my view, your arguments on that part seem a bit misleading sir.

[Fire Eater]

Except for the Florents when Stannis crowned himself, all of the Reach's bannermen went to support House Tyrell without question against the (alledgly) legitimate Iron Throne. It could be because Joffrey was a terrible king but then again why would they also follow their liege lords in protecting a King even worse than Joffrey during Robert's Rebellion.

This certainly implies loyalty. Also, House Tyrell was never described as ruthless or cruel rulers again implying that their loyalty doesn't come out of fear like is the case with some Lannister bannermen.

There were never reports of rebellions nor other conflicting situations within the Reach against House Tyrell besides this said House Hightower desertion but still in a far different situation. I'm not well acquainted with the DoD so I can certainly be wrong, but that was 150 years ago and we don't know circumstances and besides, 150 years is a lot for House Tyrell to strengthen their own position as Liege lords. Assuming they will simply feel loyalty towards Aegon as to go all way even to betray their liege lords is a big assumption I say. Let's not even forget that Mace Tyrell is married to a Hightower himself.

As for the whole Tarly thing, I understand he might've found it disrespectful for his lack of commendation but would he go as far as to betray the liege lords he follows faithfully for years just because they granted a castle (that wasn't his to begin with) to Garlan Tyrell, who very much deserved it.

Apologies if I sounded rough with the whole "a bit silly" but in my view, your arguments on that part seem a bit misleading sir.

Lord Hightower's daughter is married to Mace, but in the real world Richard Neville's daughter was married to Richard III during the War of the Roses, but that didn't stop him from defecting and fighting on the other side. Marriage isn't a guarantee for loyalty.

Aegon will do for Lords Hightower and Redwyne what Mace Tyrell and King Tommen never did: aid them against the Ironborn, and at a time when Aegon could have taken advantage of the Ironborn attack to attack a weakened Oldtown.

As for Tarly, it was more than just granting Brightwater Keep to Garlan, it was Mace hogging all the credit for the Battle of Ashford when it was entirely Tarly's work, as well as the preference for the kind of king that can be seen in his treatment of his sons with Tommen being more like Sam and Aegon more like DIckon.

[Winterz]

I don't know. Tarly doesn't strike me as the man who cares about glory and/or awards but regardless, he's been granted a seat in the Small Council. It seems to me that it is far better than making him a Lord of two castles and therefore unique. As for the whole weak King argument, Tarly fought against Robert which by all means pointed towards a better and stronger king than the Madking. To finish this off, I'd like to point out how Tarly immediatly returned his army to KL when Marge was arrested. This alone should clarify where his loyalties lie.

I honestly can't see why Lord Redwyne would require Mace Tyrell's help. The Redwynes have bigger army and a far bigger fleet. As for Lord Hightower, wasn't Garlan or Willas preparing an army to go help them against the Ironborn? Not to mention that Hightower has been told by Willas to reinforce his city.

Ultimately, I don't think you can go as far as to counter-argument this with real world arguments. Sure there have been a few betrayals from said Houses like the Freys betraying Edmure even though he was married to one but this is in a far different situation. It's not just about the marriage. Mace's wife is the wife of the Lord Paramount of the Reach and mother to the Queen. Also there's no dislike from Lord Hightower toward Mace.

In fact, important marriages like the one between Lord Paramount Mace Tyrell and Alerie Hightower seem to inspire greater loyalties and connections between said houses. Like the Florents with Stannis, going as far as to betray their liege lord (and we have little reasons to believe there ever were quarrels between them) and the King or the Starks unity with Tullys who followed them in two rebellions with the outmost loyalty.

[Fire Eater]

@Winterz

You forget that Mace Tyrell isn't a savvy lord in both military and political abilities, as even his own mother calls him an oaf. Most lords will choose to fight on the winning side, and Aegon seems to be winning.

I don't know. Tarly doesn't strike me as the man who cares about glory and/or awards but regardless, he's been granted a seat in the Small Council. It seems to me that it is far better than making him a Lord of two castles and therefore unique. As for the whole weak King argument, Tarly fought against Robert which by all means pointed towards a better and stronger king than the Madking. To finish this off, I'd like to point out how Tarly immediatly returned his army to KL when Marge was arrested. This alone should clarify where his loyalties lie.

Tarly doesn't care about awards? He had his son marry the heiress to Maidenpool. Tarly may have fought for Aerys, but don't forget that Aerys's heir apparent was Rhaegar, a renowned warrior, and he was charged with leading the Targaryen side. Tarly did come to KL, but what else was he to do? There weren't any other candidates out there fighting except Stannis whom nobody likes and appears doomed, and Euron. It wasn't exactly a dilemma.

I'll just agree to disagree.

Fire Eater, there's the image of an onyx elephant in Doran's reddened hand as Arianne enters the room and sits to speak with him. The Golden Company just happens to use elephants in battle and Harry Strickland seems very concerned about them.

I'll read the rest of this tomorrow and have some more comments, need to get some sleep.

Nice catch, I missed that, black on red. He was described as toying with it, so he would be wrestling over whether or not to join Aegon.

[The Meeraculous Third Reed]

After that came a savory snake stew, chunks of seven different sorts of snake slow-simmered in dragon peppers and blood oranges and a dash of venom to give it good bite.

All Dornishmen were snakes, and the Martells were the worst of them.

I think we will see seven members of the Martell family die in the series, with the snakes described as simmered in dragon peppers to hint at the reasons for their demise. Quentyn is already dead. When a weak Doran hears about what happened Quentyn, it will kill him. Arianne will perish in the second Dance of Dragons.

Half of the Sand Snakes will accompany Arianne to the grave. Oberyn's daughters Obara, Tyene and Nymeria are on the list of those who will die in the Dance of Dragon 2.

The seventh could be Elia Sand, who is named for a dead woman and is akin to the KoLT, Lyanna, who is also dead. I'm reluctant to name Sarella as one since she is the only one of the Sand Snakes who seems to be using her brain, and she isn't involved with House Martell's political dealings.

Sands aren't Martells.

[Fire Eater]

Sands aren't Martells.

True, but even as bastards they are part of the Martell family as well as called Sand Snakes. Arianne thinks of Tyene as a sister.

[TheCrannogDweller]

Great thread, Fire Eater, I especially liked your suggestion about Dany landing in the Vale, even though the logistics of it would be a little complicated.

While I was reading it though, a few questions popped into my mind:

1. If Aegon is really a Blackfyre, wouldn't a conflict between him and Dany be more of a Blackfyre rebellion than a Dance of Dragons?

2. Wouldn't a Dance of Dragons imply that both sides have dragons?

3. The fifth book was called A Dance with Dragons, not "of dragons". Isn't it more likely that it was supposed to show the attempts of outside factions to interact with the Targaryens, rather than a fight between themselves?

[Fire Eater]

Great thread, Fire Eater, I especially liked your suggestion about Dany landing in the Vale, even though the logistics of it would be a little complicated.

While I was reading it though, a few questions popped into my mind:

1. If Aegon is really a Blackfyre, wouldn't a conflict between him and Dany be more of a Blackfyre rebellion than a Dance of Dragons?

2. Wouldn't a Dance of Dragons imply that both sides have dragons?

3. The fifth book was called A Dance with Dragons, not "of dragons". Isn't it more likely that it was supposed to show the attempts of outside factions to interact with the Targaryens, rather than a fight between themselves?

Thank you and to answer your questions

1. GRRM said there would be a second Dance of Dragons, and it has aspects of the Dance of Dragons, which was between a queen and king. It is a mixture of Blackfyre Rebellion and Dance of Dragons.

2. Both sides do have dragons; Aegon, the black dragon and Dany, the red dragon.

3. The title of the fifth book may have referred to people trying to court with Dany and Aegon.

[Jabronius Maximus]

The one issue I have with the DoD 2.0 is Dany having all 3 dragons on her side. Even if Aegon has an army, it'll be a total whitewashing because once the army flees from the dragon fire, Aegon is as good as dead. The 'dance' may last a few hours at most in that case.

However it was confirmed in some SSM or interview (I've given up looking, I read it somewhere but can't find it :frown5: ) that a person can bond with/control 1 dragon. Dany has Drogon, and unless Viserion and Rhaegal bond with someone on Dany's side, its entirely possible we see a literal dragon v dragon in the DoD 2.0.

Also there was Tyrion noting the weakness of a dragon - the eyes, nowhere else. I find it curious for Martin to drop that in, and it's entirely possible that's put into practice soon, and one of the dragons (likely V or R) is taken out.

[chrisdaw]

A dance with only one side having literal dragons won't be happening. Three treasons you will know, trust none of them.

[The Idiots Lantern]

Dany has Drogon, and unless Viserion and Rhaegal bond with someone on Dany's side, its entirely possible we see a literal dragon v dragon in the DoD 2.0.

One but not both. Drogon is the biggest and strongest dragon, but if (f)Aegon has BOTH Rheagal and Viserion on his side somehow, she'll want very much to avoid a dance. Drogon may be strongest, but he can't take both of his brothers at once.

If he's only got one dragon...well, that might be a different story, but even so, I can't see Dany being the one to make the call to make her "children" fight each-other to the death. However things go sour between her and Aegon, they are going to have to REALLY go sour to put that on the table. Remember, she's going to WANT Aegon to be real.

[Morienthar]

I'm I the only one who thinks a Targ won't end up on the throne??

When the dance ensues I think both Dany and Aegon will end up dead...Including he dragons which will die with the coming of Spring and Summer.