Jon Connington, patient 0?

[BastardWithNoName]

I read on this forum awhile back about a theory that Jon Connington will be slain and become patient zero for a greyscale plague to wash over Westeros. I really like this idea as it would be very improtant ending to his character that has ripple effects through Westeros. I really hope that is the direction of Connington's character. The Griffin's plague is what it could be known as from that point forward!

[The Fallen]

` Is greyscale an airborne disease? How would it spread?

[BeWareOfMyHouse]

I was always under the impression that grayscale was spread through physical contact between an infected person and an uninfected, not like an airborne disease.

For instance, can people imagine the horrors of an airborne AIDS virus?

[BastardWithNoName]

Well I guess if you have ever seen the movie "black Death" with Sean Bean at the end when he has the plague and is drawn and quartered but before he dies he says that now the plague will spread to them. I imagine it like that. The virus is in his blood and touches a few ppl and then they spread it from there. I think its more like the bubonic plague than AIDS.

[thecryptile]

maybe greyscale is the "stone" that the dragons will awaken from in fulfillment of Quaithe's prophecy!

[Darryk]

Well I guess if you have ever seen the movie "black Death" with Sean Bean at the end when he has the plague and is drawn and quartered but before he dies he says that now the plague will spread to them. I imagine it like that. The virus is in his blood and touches a few ppl and then they spread it from there. I think its more like the bubonic plague than AIDS.

Bubonic plague was spread by rat fleas though, whereas it seems to be made pretty clear in ASOIF that Greyscale is spread through physical contact. So I don't see how Jon Connington can spread it just by 'dying'.

Nor did Sean Bean's character in Black Death spread the plague by dying, by the way. Yeah he may have made it sound that way at the end, but he was speaking from the perspective of an ignorant medieval religious fanatic.

Edit: Thought about it and realized it's not made clear that greyscale spread through physical contact, just that people seem to think it does. (just as people in medieval Europe had a whole bunch of incorrect theories about how the bubonic plague was spreading) Guess we don't really know how greyscale spreads, but it definitely doesn't seem near as contagious as the black death.

[Penguin king]

Greyscale can't be that contagious. Shireen caught it as a kid, but there's no evidence that she managed to infect anyone else in Stannis's household. I think Jon Conn just got unlucky. Tyrion was submerged in the same water and he came out fine.

[The Mother of The Others]

uh, why isn't Shireen contagious again? She's not patient zero because her greyscale is inactive like a birth mark or something her infant immune system beat back into remission? That's weird. Their whole family is weird. Hey Shireen should marry Jon Conn, both as his beard and for science! Would their kids be odd? Like Rick Moranis' character in Ghostbusters is what I'm imagining, only with the right side of his body covered in scale except for the buttock.

[Varys BrightBlackflayrme]

Jon caught it jumping into a river saving Tyrion. It simply wont spread unless he shares a bath with someone. It would have to be a very large bath to spread quickly. Westeros is not usually known for its many baths. There is probably only about 15 baths across the seven kingdoms. Possibly more. Not sure how many rivers there are.

[Ser Ennepe]

Well, it could be that greyscale spreads through physical contact (as all the other posters said) and Tyrion was just super lucky to not get it. If this is really the way it spreads, the only way for JonCon to act as Patient Zero would be by getting killed and turned into a paste in which everyone from Westeros bathes. Therefore I doubt the whole JonCon will be the starting point for a greyscale plague.

I think it is more likely that Danaerys and her team will bring the pale mare to Westeros than for JonCon to act as patient Zero.

[The Mother of The Others]

There are probably only about 15 baths across the seven kingdoms. Possibly more.

And here they are:

Here's a sampling of some hot bath/hot temp scenes:

AGOT

Catelyn always takes hot, steaming baths. The walls to her room were also hot to the touch.

Tyrion wants a hot bath at the Crossroads Inn.

Lord Commander Mormont takes hot baths.

Varys is pink after a bath, either indicating intense scrubbing or that the water was hot.

Sansa takes a hot bath many days after her father was killed.

ACOK

Arya and the captives were made to scrub in scalding hot water at Harrenhal.

Jaqen is in a steaming bath in the bathhouse at Harrenhal.

Sansa takes a scalding hot bath after she started menstruating.

Tyrion takes a hot bath before going to see Shae.

ASOS

Jon wishes for a hot bath when he’s with Ygritte and the wildlings.

Tyrion wants a hot bath, “the hotter, the better”.

Jaime and Brienne take steaming baths at Harrenhal.

Jon thinks of the hot pools they used to bathe in at Winterfell.

AFFC

Cersei is in a hot, steaming bath when Tommen and Jaime come to speak to her

Edmure takes a hot bath when Jaime talks to him at the siege of Riverrun.

Taena and Cersei take hot baths.

Sweetrobin takes hot baths.

ADWD

Tyrion takes a hot bath at Illyrio’s manse.

Haldon Halfmaester thinks of the pleasure of hot baths once they come out of the fog of Sorrows.

Serving women bring hot water for Jeyne Poole’s (“Arya’s”) bath.

Theon thinks of how as Reek he will have no hot baths.

Barristan requests water be heated for his bath, and notes that it’s only lukewarm when it arrives.

It looks like a greyscale epidemic could be spread by these people! These people bathe hard and frequently!

[Ser Ennepe]

The Halfmaester will doom Westeros with his love for baths!

[BastardWithNoName]

Damn I guess this theory is smashed and myth busted. Oh well it would be cool if that happened imo

[Varys BrightBlackflayrme]

IIRC Val said Shireen was "unclean". Therefore as long as there is no bath sharing with an unclean, everything should be fine. Maybe hot baths are the answer to keep clean and greyscale at bay? Who knows?

[PrimeRhaegar]

greyscales isn't an air born pathogen don't you have to be in an environment like the river where he contracted it

[TheLostStark]

Think if he were to die at the base of the trident. It's known to spread through water. It would affect the entire riverlands.

[Mikkel]

IIRC Val said Shireen was "unclean". Therefore as long as there is no bath sharing with an unclean, everything should be fine. Maybe hot baths are the answer to keep clean and greyscale at bay? Who knows?

Well it's clear that Val is not exactly being rational about Shireen's disease and Wildling knowledge of medicine in general is probably somewhat limited, so I wouldn't take her word for it. In their society killing with extreme prejudice all those infected may be the only tool they have, but that doesn't mean it's the only way it can be handled (Shireen certainly don't appear to infect anyone).

[tomkat364]

I'm rereading and I think this is more than likely. One of the details I picked up on was Illyrio's speech to Tyrion about his beloved spouse, how even though the plague ship was quarantined the rats must have gotten off and spread the illness, which was greyscale. While it's a nice detail about his character that he keeps his dead wife's petrified hands as a memento, it does seem to be easy foreshadowing that a plague of greyscale is not only possible, but in my mind likely. Why else give Connington greyscale?

As far as transmission... we simply don't know. Tyrion seems unaffected although GRAPPLING with the stone man, where as Griff got it with presumably less contact. The closest disease that it resembles IMO is leprosy, caused by a mycobacterium, mostly passed by close contact with people, but also can be transmitted through fomites (environmental objects that the host contacts, bacterium lives on object long enough for the next person who contacts it to contract the illness.)

[Stormland's Fury]

I would say yes, it adds to the personal drama, sure, but I think it will have a relevance on a larger scale later on.

[Chebyshov]

Well it's clear that Val is not exactly being rational about Shireen's disease and Wildling knowledge of medicine in general is probably somewhat limited, so I wouldn't take her word for it. In their society killing with extreme prejudice all those infected may be the only tool they have, but that doesn't mean it's the only way it can be handled (Shireen certainly don't appear to infect anyone).

She told Jon it lies dormant and wakes again...I'm wondering if the Wildlings experienced this at some point, and then it was passed down to simply kill anyone infected?