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Aegon, Varys, and Serra-- the Backfyre Triangle


Ragnorak

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First, well done, Ragnorak, it was indeed pleasure to read it and to see it all together.

Now, my few observation why I believe this theory is true:

1. Blackfyre as Chekhov gun. We have mentioned Chekhov`s gun for so many times, but allow me to use it once more. Why so mentioning Blackfyres? Even without D&E stories, Blackfyres and their rebellion pops out every once and while. So many times, they have been mentioned or reffered, that it`s quite logical, they influence the story in some extent. When you mention someone, you have to know why and whats the point of it? And for me, the key of unraveling Blackfyre Gordian knot is actually Young Griff.

2. Illyrio`s behavior towards Targaryens. As Dany mentioned, there are no true love or affection between her and her brother on one and Illyrio on another. So, why would Aegon be any different? If he has no love towards Dany or Viserys, why would he care so much for Rhaegar`s son? The difference in his tone when he speaks to dany, and when he speaks about Young Griff is actually quite noticeable.

3. Who raised Aegon? Of all difficult questions, this one is the toughest to answer? We know Jon Connington wasn`t part of YG`s company until the boy was 5, so what happened during those 5 years? As we know, the real Aegon was infant boy, and he needed a mother in that time. The only solution would be that either Elia or some of her inner circle was with the boy from the start. Elia was of course killed, and the only one we know she was close with was Ashara Dayne. Ashara is supposingly dead, which brings us to Septa Lemore. Many theorized that Lemore is Ashara, but with the wrong age, and unnoticable haunting violet eyes, we have enough proof to dismiss theory Ashara is actually alive, and she`s Lemore. So, the boy needed mother, wetnurse, a woman to take care of him. And considering that we lack of women in KL for that job after Sack, we can also exclude possibility that anyone from Westeros was with boy from the day Varys supposingly replaced him. But, alas, like Tyrion noticed, there`s something about Lemore. With stretchmarks, and also closeness to Aegon, being the only woman in the company, we can say that she was with him from the beginning. And if she is not Westerosi, than that excludes Aegon as Rhaegar`s son.

Since all other refferences and foreshadowings have been mentioned, I`ll stop here. But, haunting words `red or black, a dragon is a dragon` could possibly mean more than just Aegon being Blackfyre. With Daenerys` dragons and danger they represent, and Jon`s vows to NW, even a Blackfyre would be a good choice for a King. At the end, after we have resolved the question whether Aegon is fake or not, we must deal with prospects of him possibly becoming King one day. And if that day comes, would we really be bothered by it?

Again, Ragnorak, as always, nice job. Congratulations on great thread

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While I think that Young Griff may be a Blackfyre descendant, I think it is jumping the gun to assume that Varys and Sera are also of the Blackfyre line and Varys secret agenda is to put a Blackfyre on the throne.

My first problem with this theory is a practical one. Namely, the name Blackfyre is never mentioned until book three. Not even as a throw away line in one of the historical discussions in the first two books. Daemon Blackfyre is not even mentioned in Appendix for Game if Thrones. It's sloppy writing not to set up any type of foundation for such a major underlying plot point until the third book (remember, GRRM initially believed after AGOT that this would be a trilogy).

My second problem is by assuming that the origins of these major players in the books can all be answered by the history of House Blackfyre ignores a lot of the other Targaryen history that has been established by the series. Namely the history of Aerion Brightflame and his unnamed son who were passed over by the Great Council in favor of Aegon V. Remember Moqorro's prophecy to Tyrion "Dragons, Dragons old and young, true and false, bright and dark..." I don't think that House Blackfyre is the only lost Targaryen line that is floating around in the series right now. I have a feeling that there are other disinherited heirs that may be revealing themselves.

This theory also assumes that Illyrio and Varys master plan is to put Young Griff on the throne. I think this is a major leap. Remember their original plan was to allegedly put Viserys on the throne. It has become apparent that he was probably merely a catspaw to further their own agenda. I don't think that it's much of a stretch to assume that they are merely using Young Griff as well. Recall the sadness displayed by Illyrio as he gives the Halfmaester and Duck his parting gifts for Young Griff. That sadness may reflect a man who knows he is sending a young boy that grew up in his Manse off to an unpleasant end.

I absolutely agree there are other targaryens/Blackfyre's out there. It was a giant house with a lot of man-whores in it, and we have not seen them all yet.

And yet the majority of Blackfyre mentions in the series come in the same book wherein Young Griff is introduced. Coincidence?

There is also the entire D&E series, which is heavily predicated on the Blackfyre Rebellions and that history.

I don't see why he couldn't be both a Blackfyre and an Aerion descendant. It actually makes sense that the two family branches would try to find each other.

Yes!!! I completely agree, why would there be sooo much Blackfyre info in the same book where Aegon VI is introduced, and by the Blackfyre sellsword company no less.

I don't see how people can think that all the Blackfyre build-up will not come to fruition in some form or another.

That's interesting, what you said about Aerions line and the Blackfyre line coming together in the person of Aegon VI, not a bad idea at all. IMO the biggest hint that Aegon is indeed a Blackfyre is; Tyrion tricked/persuaded him to go to Westeros so easily instead of to Mereen to Dany. The Blackfyres, historically (in D&E) seem to crave power, they crave the throne. They think that ever since Dameon was denied the throne (and in their eyes, he deserved it more than Dareon), that they have been cheated in some terrible way and will do anything to get the throne. Like not only were they denied it, but in doing so it planted a mission in the heart of every Blackfyre to take the throne back at all costs, no matter what is best for the citizens or country at large. Rebellions and civil war do not seem to phase the Blackfyre's ideals about who is best suited to rule.

So my point is, Aegon was headed to Dany (the last known, official targaryen), Dany has 3 Dragons and is building an army great enough to take back her father's throne. So then, little Tyrion comes along, and in the space of One conversation, he completely convinces Aegon VI to turn his army/ideas/mission completely around and head towards Westeros to claim the throne. Aegon chooses to do this instead of seeking out the last of 'family' who is the only known one and who currently has dragons, which naturally, IMO, would draw a true Targaryen towards her. A true Targaryen would want to behold the dragons and become one of the three heads more than they would want to conquer the IT.

But like I say Aegon was tricked right into it and deserted his aunt and her dragons. He sort of made it sound like he didn't really care if it pissed her off either, like, 'Well as long as I get there first then I will rule and she can bow down to me when she gets there' (I can't remember the exact conversation from the book, but it's along those lines).

Aegon's attitude about Dany is just not what IMO a true Targaryen's should be, his are the actions of a Blackfyre who wants it for himself and who is ready to divide the kingdom over it. At least that's what I think.

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A lengthy theory that would hijack this thread. If you would prefer, try this theory on for size: Daenerys is the dragon young and old because of her age and the fact that she is Azor Ahai, the first dragonrider, reincarnated.

I don't suppose you'd be willing to point me in the right direction?

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For the people claiming that the series mentioned the Blackfyres far too little to be setting up this plot twist: I disagree. There are a lot of hints peppered throughout the series. For example, the brother of the archon of Tyrosh was noted to be at Dany's wedding to Khal Drogo. Why did GRRM be sure to mention that fact at least twice in aGoT? Well, interestingly, Tyrosh was conquered by Maelys Blackfyre and he installed an archon, who was removed later by a faction opposing him. Presumably then, the current Tyroshi archon sent his brother to check up with Illyrio and make sure that no Blackfyres were coming anywhere near Tyrosh.

Elia was of course killed, and the only one we know she was close with was Ashara Dayne. Ashara is supposingly dead, which brings us to Septa Lemore. Many theorized that Lemore is Ashara, but with the wrong age, and unnoticable haunting violet eyes, we have enough proof to dismiss theory Ashara is actually alive, and she`s Lemore.

Actually, Lemore is definitely in the right age range to be Ashara Dayne; and the fact that Tyrion does not comment on her eye color is even more suspicious, considering he mentions almost everybody's eye colors, whether they're notable or common.

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Actually, Lemore is definitely in the right age range to be Ashara Dayne; and the fact that Tyrion does not comment on her eye color is even more suspicious, considering he mentions almost everybody's eye colors, whether they're notable or common.

Ashara would be in mid-thirties, and Lemore is over 40.

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I'm so tired of hearing that Ashara is in her 30s and Lemore is over 40. Lemore LOOKS over 40. I look 18 due to a stress free life. But I'm 24. Ashara seems to have had it rough right up til she supposedly offed herself, meaning she could have aged physically due to stress. Its very possible she's Ashara Dayne. People don't always guess ages correctly. And in the same vein, people don't always look their age.

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We don't know Ashara's birth year (she's likely within about 5 years of Elia Martell, who was born in 253 AL), and the estimate of Septa Lemore being over 40 was made by Tyrion, who has historically been pretty bad at guessing peoples' ages.

Sorry this may be a stupid question, but wouldn't Tyrion have seen Ashara before she supposedly killed herself when he was young. If it was her, wouldnt he possibly recognize her?

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Varys is a blackfyre I just had the thought while watching the show, When he tells Tyrion how he got cut both in the book but particularly in the show I thought why would a sorcerer or more likely a red priest want with some slave. Unless that slave had some essence of king's blood because he was a blackfyre and I figure that since the showrunners are privy to the ending they were planting the seed early as was GRRM in the book to the reveal of Varys being a blackfyre.

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Sorry this may be a stupid question, but wouldn't Tyrion have seen Ashara before she supposedly killed herself when he was young. If it was her, wouldnt he possibly recognize her?

He was about 7 years old when Ashara allegedly committed suicide. If Tyrion ever saw her, it was nothing more than cursory glances in his youth, and I doubt it would give him any flashbacks 20 years later.

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Varys is a blackfyre I just had the thought while watching the show, When he tells Tyrion how he got cut both in the book but particularly in the show I thought why would a sorcerer or more likely a red priest want with some slave. Unless that slave had some essence of king's blood because he was a blackfyre and I figure that since the showrunners are privy to the ending they were planting the seed early as was GRRM in the book to the reveal of Varys being a blackfyre.

Hey that's a good point, and a perfect example of how the show can point out things that were not that obvious in the books :)

Good catch!!

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He was about 7 years old when Ashara allegedly committed suicide. If Tyrion ever saw her, it was nothing more than cursory glances in his youth, and I doubt it would give him any flashbacks 20 years later.

Ok yeah I guess so. Maybe we should open a thread about speculation of Ashara's journey from faking her death (or whatever) to showing up in DwD with the Griffs.

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I used to be a supporter of the classic Faegontheory (Serra and Varys Blackfyre = Brother and sister and Faegon = Serra's son). Lately however I have changed my mind. I think that Varys and Serra are Brightflame decendants and that Illyrio is actually a Blackfyre. It explains why Faegon looks so Valyrian (Serra had Valyrian looks, but she wasn't full Valyrian, if Illyrio is Blackfyre than Faegon gets a shot of Valyrian through that side too) and why Serra was a prostitute in Lys (Brightflames son was left there).

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Adding Aerion's dynasty to the equation makes it needlessly complicated. There are a ton of hints that YG's a Blackfyre -- at least one per book -- but the only connection between YG and Aerion is a vague geographical connection from 80 years ago.

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A little bit of a metatextual clue that Varys may indeed be a Blackfyre is thise quote from Cat's internal monologue when she arrives in KL in AGoT:

"Only the blood of the dragon would ever know the secrets of the fortress the Dragonlords had built, [Maegor] vowed"

Varys is probably the only peson who knows all of the Red Keep's ins and outs

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<snip>

Fantastic write up of the underlying evidence and questions.

I'd like to get your thoughts on one part of this, the Steffon trip.

We know Steffon is sent to the Free Cities by Aerys to find a wife for Rhaegar of Valyrian descent. He fails and on the return trip he and his wife die when their ship sinks. Only Patchface returns.

What is the timeline here?

Aerys denies Tywin a marriage between Cersei and Rhaegar 276AL

Aerys starts getting very paranoid after the Defiance at Duskendale sometime around mid 277AL.

Varys comes to the Red Keep sometime soon after. (Before or after Aerys decides to send Steffon?)

Steffon dies returning from his failed mission in 278AL

Elia marries Rhaegar ?AL

Rhaenys is born ?AL

Aegon is born 282AL

So, why does Aerys send Steffon to the Free Cities to search for a wife?

We know Aerys thinks Cersei isn't good enough. He denies Tywin at political cost.

Elia is 19 at the time Cersei is offered, around 21 when Aerys sends Steffon off, so certainly able to be wed. We know later Rhaegar and Elia are married, so she must be worthy.

We know Aerys position is growing weak at this point and many houses are not too happy with him. An alliance with any number of them could have been beneficial politically.

So why send Steffon off to bring back some foreign princess for his son, only child, and heir?

If Steffon is merely searching for women of Valyrian descent surely he would have found one in the Free Cities. You would think he would at least bring one or a few back with him for Aerys to consider.

But, what if Aerys isn’t looking for just any woman of Valyrian descent, but someone with Targaryen blood? He ultimately decides to get just this with Elia so it seems in line with his motivations. Maybe he feels it has to be someone with Targaryen blood in order to fulfill the prophecy.

So, if Steffon is looking for Targaryen blood in the Free Cities who would it be?

A female descendant of Aerion is a possibility, though we know it is only rumored he may have had children while in Lys and his heir was passed over for the throne (something that might make Aerys find any of his descendants unworthy).

A female from the Blackfyre line is another possibility. With the Blackfyres wed to Rhaegar Aerys gains a lot; the Golden Company, the Exiled Lords (maybe he wants to replace some of his grumbling lords with the exiles), any Blackfyre supporters who still remain in the realm and he eliminates a possible future rival for the throne. He also weds his son to someone of Targaryen blood.

If it is the Blackfyres he is after though, why don’t they meet with Steffon? Or… even if Steffon is just looking for a woman of Valyrian descent, why not present themselves as a candidate?

Then there is Varys.

Option A: Varys is a Blackfyre or tied to the Blackfyres in some way at the time Steffon leaves.

He is in KL around the time Aerys and Steffon would have been discussing all of this. If Varys is a Blackfyre/Supporter and his goal is to get the Blackfyres back on the throne surely Steffon would have found a wife for Rhaegar in the Free Cities, a Blackfyre wife (out in the open or incognito).

We have to assume that if that’s the case Varys doesn’t want to bring the house back together. He sends word to Illyrio and the Blackfyres stay in hiding.

Under this scenario Varys and the Blackfyres probably want the complete destruction of the “false” House Targaryen line, not just the throne.

With these conditions I see events playing out like this with Varys…

Assures Steffon’s failure to find a Blackfyre wife for Rhaegar.

Keeps nudging Aerys towards madness, undermining the Crown.

Doesn’t have a male Blackfyre (yet) the people will consider worthy, so he buys time, destabilizing the realm, does what he can to encourage Robert’s Rebellion, makes sure as many Targaryens as possible die in the process.

A male Targaryen (Aegon) dies as an infant in chaotic circumstances. The Aegon plan is formed. Dead baby Aegon is the first and only Targaryen they would ever have a possibility of replacing with one of their line. Illyrio and Serra have the baby.

Instead of just killing Dany and Viserys when they show up at Illyrio’s door he sees it as an opportunity to use them.

Illyrion and Varys marry Dany off to Drogo with Viserys in tow.

Varys plans to have Dany, Drogo, and Viserys invade Westeros with their hoarde screaming about their rights to the throne… and what do Dothraki do better than kill peasants and cause people to hate you? A least a good portion of the people and lords would have wanted nothing to do with her at that point. In swoops Aegon Blackfyre to kill Mad Aerys come again, set the realm straight, and reclaim the throne for the Blackfyres… the True Targaryens and rightful rulers of Westeros.

But, Viserys dies, Drogo dies, the Dothraki disband, and… Dany hatches Dragons. Dragons… that a monkey wrench in the whole plan.

So Illyrio sends boats to pick Dany up. Once he gets her he can just kill her and take the Dragons, giving them to Aegon. But instead of going to Illyrio, she heads off to Astapor.

So Varys and Illyrio change the plan a bit again… send Aegon and The Golden Company to Dany to “marry” her. Again they can kill her off then or at some later date after Aegon controls the dragons.

But of course, Aegon heads off to invade without meeting her.

Option B: Varys and Illyrio are not tied to House Blackfyre at the time Steffon is sent.

Varys, in KL, finds out Aerys is sending Steffon to look for a Blackfyre wife for Rhaegar. He has Illyrio contact them first. They make some arrangement. Illyrio marries Serra Blackfyre.

Much of the above plays out the same as option A, except that Varys isn’t motivated to kill off all Targaryens, just to control the Crown. He can tie (f)Aegon to Dany (whether they meet up in Westeros with the Hoarde and GC or as a marriage as later discussed) without it being a problem for him.

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Very good summary, Ragnorak.

<snip>

The theory is that Varys is a Blackfyre and Serra (the woman Illyrio loved) was his sister. Aegon is the son of Serra and Illyrio and is a Blackfyre through the female line. Technically, only Serra has to be a Blackfyre for Aegon to be one, but Varys as her brother or some similar connection explains his motivations better. Varys and Illyrio were information brokers and would have known that Aerys sent Steffon Baratheon to Essos to look for a bride for Rhaegar. They would know exactly what Steffon was told to look for such as the Valyrian blood and noble birth we're told about as well as other things the reader doesn't know such as possible connections to some prophesy Aerys and/or Rhaegar might be trying to fulfill. Anything written to or from Steffon or any conversations Steffon had are things Varys and Illyrio could reasonably come to know.<snip>

I remember to have sugested in your sadly now inaccessible thread, that Varys was a Blackfyre descendant bereft of his chances to rule Westeros due to his emasculation. And sometimes I felt his motivation was to exact revenge for "the realm, for the children" he would never have.

Meanwhile I´ve had another idea, but first I´d like to adress this excellent find of yours, concerning Steffon´s mission to find a bride for Rhaegar. Was it in your original post? Is it in the books? It is a crucial bit of information regarding the relationship between Tywin and Aerys. We know that Tywin had ambitions to marry Cersei to Rhaegar and we know that Aerys was angered by Tywin´s ambitions, since he had Ser Ilyn Payne´s tongue torn out for boasting that it was Tywin, who truy ruled the Seven Kingdoms. I created a short timeline to show the development.

  • 274 Elia and Oberyn visit Casterly Rock. Tywin turns down Oberyn as husband to Cersei and insults Dorne by offering Tyrion to Elia.
  • 276 Tourney in the West (Lannisport) is attended by Rhaegar. Aerys is present and turns down Tywin´s sugestion of marrying Cersei to Rhaegar.
  • 276 or later. The Defiance of Duskendale. Instigated supposedly by the Myrish Lace Serpent. Aerys is taken hostage. Tywin takes some time before having Aerys freed by Barristan Selmy. Probably the start of Aerys´paranoia.
  • 278 Steffon Baratheon returns from Essos without a bride for Rhaegar (but with Patchface). His ship sinks at Shipbreaker Bay.
  • 278 or probably earlier. Rhaegar is married to Elia of Dorne since the attempt to find a bride in Essos failed. I infered the date from the fact that Rhaenys, who died 283, was able to name her cat Balerion.

In the second Tyrion chapter in Dance we learn that Varys had to flee from Myr, was he just informed upon or did he discover a plot involving the Defiance of Duskendale that gave him the idea of information being more valuable than gems?

A chance to fulfill what he regarded as his destiny, after all?

“We were young together, two green boys in Pentos.”

“Varys came from Myr.”

“So he did. I met him not long after he arrived, one step ahead of the slavers. By day he slept in the sewers, by night he prowled the rooftops like a cat. I was near as poor, a bravo in soiled silks, living by my blade. Perhaps you

chanced to glimpse the statue by my pool? Pytho Malanon carved that when I was six-and-ten. A lovely thing, though now I weep to see it.”

“Age makes ruins of us all. I am still in mourning for my nose. But Varys …”

“In Myr he was a prince of thieves, until a rival thief informed on him. ..."

From this quote I get the impression that Varys and Illyrio were really young wen they met, probably fifteen or a little less since Illyrio was really poor, but had a statue made of himself at six-and-ten. That would make them thirty-ish, which seems too young, but possible.

I see this as important to determine wether Illyrio told Tyrion any lies in that litter, which I don´t think. I have the feeling that Illyrio omitted important parts and tried to steer Tyrion away from dangerous questions, very much as Varys generally does. Varys presents facts in a way that lets people draw the conclusions he wants them to draw. (And I have the feeling he is much better at it than Illyrio.)

This brings us to my "new" idea regarding Varys´ ancestory. The only time when he tells Tyrion a story that is not made up of facts gathered by informants, but experienced by himself, is the story how he was cut.

Varys comes to bring the bad news that Storm´s End had surrendered to Stannis. Shae recognizes Varys in his disguise, while Tyrion doesn´t. Tyrion makes a remark that reminded me of the Blackwood´s ravenfeather cloak and thereby of Bloodraven´s thousand eyes and one, this could of course be an allusion to the function of gathering information.

"You ought to dress in black feathers, Varys, you're as bad an omen as any raven."

But this is followed by the famous story, that I find untypical for Varys as it´s extremely detailed and his own experience. I think it might be a mixture of truth and an allegorical story, as Varys´ riddle from Clash. Of course it could be a true personal story in order to reinforce Tyrions trust and to make good on the fact that Shae seemed to know him too well.

This pause was longer than the one before, and when Varys spoke again his voicewas different somehow.

"I was an orphan boy apprenticed to a traveling folly. Our master owned a fat little cog and we sailed up and down the narrow sea performing in all the Free Cities and from time to time in Oldtown and King's Landing.

"One day at Myr, a certain man came to our folly. After the performance, he made an offer for me that my master found too tempting to refuse. I was in terror. I feared the man meant to use me as I had heard men used small boys, but in truth the only part of me he had need of was my manhood. He gave me a potion that made me powerless to move or speak, yet did nothing to dull my senses. With a long hooked blade, he sliced me root and stem, chanting all the while. I watched him burn my manly parts on a brazier.The flames turned blue, and I heard a voice answer his call, though I did not understand the words they spoke."

The mummers had sailed by the time he was done with me. Once I had served his purpose, the man had no further interest in me, so he put me out. When I asked him what I should do now, he answered that he supposed I should die. To spite him, I resolved to live. I begged, I stole, and I sold what parts of my body still remained to me. Soon I was as good a thief as any in Myr, and when I was older I learned that often the contents of a man's letters are more valuable than the contents of his purse.

I asked myself, what if Varys is a descendant of the Blackfyre loyalist, Bittersteel, founder of the Golden Company, which has turned into a folly in Varys´ eyes. They didn´t accept him as he was much more of a thinker than a fighter. Brain not brawn. They put him out just as Bittersteel was put out of Westeros by Bloodraven. This would give Varys motive to fulfill the vow of his forefather in a mocking way by naming the son of a Braavo and a lyseni bedslave Aegon and making the fools of the GC believe he is a Blackfyre. Yeah, I know it´s probably needlessly complicated, but it the only way that makes me comfortable with the sloppy execution of the Jon Connington part of the endeavour. Though it´sprobably just Illyrio´s inaptness.

It took me so long to gather the quotes, that I was ninja´d by Caravaggio. Ah, well.

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Great Summary Rag. Thanks. I appreciate the write-up. As was said earlier, this theory explains and answers more questions than the idea that Aegon is actually Aerys's son. It is one of the only possible explanations for the apparently contradictory actions and motivations taken by Varys/Illyrio.

Just one thing- Isn't there something in the books about Illyrio being like insanely greedy? Like doesn't he tell Tyrion that he never has enough gold, and always wants more, and that being master of Coin is a dream of his? I suppose that could answer for some of his actions, but not all.

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Forgot to add that the whole Patchface is a descendent of Aerion theory when considering Blackfyres, etc living in the Free Cities at the time.

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/66847-patchface-prophesies/

We've seen other Lords offer offspring that have some kind of disfigurement/etc as an insult to people asking to marry into their house. Tywin offering Tyrion to Elia/etc. Maybe Varys or the Blackfyres meant to offer Patchface as an insult to Aerys asking for one of their line for Rhaegar. Who could have been more insulting?

(also interesting that Patchface is the first character we have evidence of returning from the dead ((Aeron possibly doesn't return from the dead or start raising dead of his own until later and he does say "Marching into the sea ((dying)) and back out ((being resurrected)), and I will lead them!)

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