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Ours is the Roar

What do you think will happen in Stannis' Siege at Winterfell?

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It has come down to this. A exciting huge battle for the Stannis fans. A desperate downfall for Bolton lovers. What do you think will happen?

From what i can see in The Winds of Winter' Stannis' Siege at WInterfell against the Boltons is Stannis' lose. He is thousands of men short, who is dying and flabbergasted. I expect Stannis to lose, but anyhow, i would like him to win against the damned Ramsay Bolton.

Stannis has gotten at Braavos Banker to get him a bunch of Sellswords, but i doubt they'll arrive before the Siege at Winterfell especially if Bolton decides to go manhunt Stannis Baratheon. In spite of the fact that Stannis' might get itchy and just attack out for nowhere for Winterfell. Stannis future is unclear with this Siege as well as what to do with Theon and if he really does come by with the last few Starks alive.

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Roose Bolton outnumbers Stannis - but not by as many men as he thinks he does. Stannis is almost certainly the better battle tactician. Bolton has the advantage of being behind walls, but those walls are themselves not yet fully made secure - thanks in large part to his son. And, if the treachery of the Karstarks is discovered, there are no others: Stannis's camp is the united one. Bolton has enemies within as well as without, what with Manderly scheming against him, murders in his own castle, Hother Umber's loyalty being something he dares not count on (especially given that Mors has joined Stannis). Other lords are at best reluctant, and may well desert or surrender early. The only allies he can absolutely count on are the Freys - and they are now led by Hosteen, who is known to be incompetent, because the supposedly more competent Aenys has died in a pit trap dug by Mors Umber's men.

(As for the split Umber family - Stannis has the better half: the young men and boys on the verge of manhood, under Mors, will grow stronger by the year, whereas the old men who have joined Bolton under Hother will only grow weaker over time. It's possible that Hother's faction is *already* secretly working with Mors to ruin the Boltons from the inside anyway.)

If all of Bolton's forces remain loyal, Stannis is at the heavy disadvantage out in the cold, where the Boltons at least have shelter in Winterfell, and Stannis will suffer badly in assaulting it. But it only takes one disloyal faction to get control of the gates and open them from the inside. Besides, we already know that Bolton is sending out parts of his army piecemeal, just to keep them from fighting *each other* in the castle, which plays right into Stannis's hands (as he can mop them up bit by bit - or, in the case of the Manderly army, accept their immediate defection) unless Ramsay can come up with some particularly creative treachery.

In fact I'd say, the weather is more likely to defeat Stannis than Bolton is.

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There's plenty of reasons and ways that Stannis loses, but more reasons, (including basic plot progression...) that he wins.

1. Treachery by the Manderlys, Umbers, and who knows who else?

2. Stannis is renown as a very capable military commander. Roose's battle experience is... The Green Fork. See the whole thread of people dissecting his possible military incompetence.

3. Ramsay is leading an army... He's not a picture of a capable military commander if you know what I mean...

4. Theon. He managed to take Winterfell once, he can certainly do so again... Only this time, he's got an even bigger army with him.

5. Karstark's betrayal was a cornerstone of Roose's plan to disable Stannis. Now that that's taken care of... Stannis may not only have Karhold's Castellan, but his soldiers as well.

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I think it's just plot progression that Stannis has to win this battle....throughout the 1st 5 books, the Starks have suffered mightily do to betrayal and their own political incompetence.....but this battle will turn the momentum for house Stark, for a victory here will usher in a brutal defeat for the Boltons and the Frey's. In fact Ioss here and the continued harassing of House Frey in the Rivverlands will take it's toll and eventually lead to it's demise.....this will be GRRM's gift to us for what they did at the Red Wedding. (Of course I'm just speculating)....but the systematic dismantling of house Frey will be a welcome occurance. Tom O'Sevens has also taken employment inside Riverrun and wil likely sew dissent for poor Emmon and Lady Gemma.....In my opinion...House Frey will systematically be wiped out as the North will take vengence for their treachery.....nut it will be interesting to see, how the battle plays out.....I hope it's one of the first chapters in the book....the happenings at Winterfell should set a nice tone for the rest of the book.

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My recollection of that scene is that it's ambiguous. They are camped and the snow is covering the ground many feet deep like walls. Suddenly there are riders, don't know who. Lots of confusion. End of chapter.

My belief is Stannis wins.

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It's probably going to be a series of viewpoints, and conflicts. Right now, there almost needs to be two battles, one at Stannis's camp, the other for Winterfell itself.

I think Stannis wins, probably with some unexpected tactics or tricks.

Bolton's ace up his sleeve was a Karstack backstab, which in the early released promotional chapter of Winds of Winters is discovered and neutered. He still has the benefit of Winterfell's walls, better provisions, and superior numbers. However... Bolton does not fight to win, he tries to make sure everyone around him loses, preferably without him needing to fight at all. Stannis might just be the most experienced general in all of Westeros right now, with the Blackfish and Randyll Tarly also in the conversation. Bolton doesn't like fighting where he might be defeated. If defeat is possible, he plans for an orderly retreat. Stannis... Stannis finds ways to win, not to wait for other guy to fail.

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I think the Pink Letter may be a sign that Roose Bolton is indeed planning a retreat, as he faces a military commander that will not die.

Roose, cunning as he is, has probably anticipated the scenario where the Karstark move doesn't work out for him. So what can he do?

He knows that eventually he is doomed in Winterfell: the castle is too hard to defend (thanks to his son), and the armies inside are not trustworthy. So Roose wants an escape route back to the Dreadfort. The Dreadfort is intact, it is a notorious hard castle to storm (the Starks took ages when the Boltons and Starks were at war long ago). So Dreadfort it is then for Roose. How can he achieve that?

He needs a clear route, supplies and time for an orderly retreat for his men. The retreat must start before Stannis has time to place his forces for a full siege. Roose knows that he has time as Stannis is nowhere near ready to lay siege to Winterfell. But Roose cannot start his retreat while there are many armies of dubious loyalty inside Winterfell: essentially he needs to be able to completely isolate his own men from his allies' men, but laden them with supplies so the retreat has to start from Winterfell. So all other armies have to be out. How to do that?

By creating a diversion that will extract everyone out of Winterfell. This is the pink letter's purpose. Roose knows that, written the way it is, Jon will try and read between the lines. Jon will know it is from Ramsay (some stuff only Ramsay knows, and the rest can be obtained out of torturing Mance), but there's enough dubious statements in it to make Jon think that Stannis has not been defeated (7 days of battle?), however the letter is angry enough to convince Jon that Arya has escaped. The Reek references are there to show him Ramsay is mad, and a mad man can be defeated hence offering Jon some hope that he can defeat Ramsay or at least bargain with him (should Jon find Reek before Ramsay does).

Essentially the letter says: Arya's escaped and I am hunting her. See if you find her before me.

(incidentally an interesting parallel to Ramsay's hunts: he normally lets a poor girl escape the castle, gives her the night as headtstart and then hunts her: here, "Arya" has escaped the castle, and Ramsay means to give hunt)

Anyway, how does that create the distraction that Roose needs?

Well, it draws Jon towards Stannis with a host of wildlings. This can create the distraction that Roose needs on 2 accounts:

- armed wildlings encounter northmen (and Southron knights): this can seem counterproductive to Roose's cause, but in fact play for him as there are potential flashpoints between those factions.

- Jon will talk to Stannis and argue that they need to find Arya. The Northmen in Stannis's host will agree that finding Arya is very important, since she is heir to their rightful lord.

So no siege of Winterfell, but Stannis' meagre forces might focus on finding Arya. Roose hopes this will create the diversion he needs.

That's a theory anyway - please feel free to pick its (many) flaws!

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I'm not concerned for Stannis now that the reinforcements are bound to warn him about the plot against him.

I'm more concerned about Asha, Theon and the fake Arya for Ramsay sounds more focussed on getting his Reek back than whatever happens to Stannis.

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I love all the cliffhangers. I can't wait for TWOW.

Good theory about Roose retreating and needing a diversion, but now that Jon's been stabbed, he won't be coming along any time soon.

We are, indeed, approaching the end game of the story. Stannis must prevail and head south. Dany will arrive in Westeros, with Tyrion and Mormont. The Others will attack the Wall and possibly get south. Arya will return to assassinate at least one person. Not sure what Littlefinger's up to and how Sansa's story will go. Same with Brienne and Jamie. Same with Aegon, whether he's the read thing or note. Curious to see Varys's next move too. Bran will play a role with the Others, as will Jon.

Not sure what will happen with Stannis after this Winterfell thing.

I think Dany may end up leaving Westeros, leaving it in capable hands, travelling to Valeria or to Mereen and living there.

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I also see Stannis as the victor of the Winterfell siege but I also do not see the Boltons going down without a fight, even if their allies turn on them. Roose or Ramsay, or both, will most likely lose the battle of Winterfell and be forced to retreat back to the Dreadfort, where they will be held up for an indefinite amount of time. Due to the final arrival of winter, I don't see Stannis heading south due to bad conditions as well as the fact that his army will most likely suffer heavy casulaties in the battle. He might dedicate his time to forging a new power base in the North for his invasion of the South and trying to root out what remains of the Bolton army.

One thing is certain: whoever wins at Winterfell will have the key to dominating the North and, as of this very moment, Stannis has the most advantages.

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I also see Stannis as the victor of the Winterfell siege but I also do not see the Boltons going down without a fight, even if their allies turn on them. .

If anything, the Boltons are survivors. I can picture them bending the knee and using Ramsay's marriage to a Stark - albeit a fake one - to get out of it.

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If anything, the Boltons are survivors. I can picture them bending the knee and using Ramsay's marriage to a Stark - albeit a fake one - to get out of it.

Roose maybe, but I believe Ramsay would do anything to never submit to anyone again, he would problably flee or die while Roose would surrender if defeated.

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Roose maybe, but I believe Ramsay would do anything to never submit to anyone again, he would problably flee or die while Roose would surrender if defeated.

I've got to agree, given the chance he would go to the Wall himself to get back "his Reek" and "kill the bastard".

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Stannis ftw. Bolton's hold on Winterfell and its garrison is weak at best. The other Northmen will revolt, the Freys will bend the knee, Stannis will kill them all.

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When Theon and Jeyne arrive at Stannis, only hours before had Stannis sent Frey and Manderly sorties out different gates in Winterfell. Stannis will defeaf the Frey hosts when suddenly the Manderly hosts appears only to turn their swords on the Frey's. Combining strength the march to Winterfell and come upon Roose, Ramsay, and the other Northern Lords. A great battle insues, Ramsay, Wyman Manderly and Crowfood Umber all perish, but Roose survives as does stannis. Roose has no forces left, the Southern Lords and hill-tribes still remain. Stannis is victorious!!!!!

His men move into Winterfell and set camp, Roose sends word to Melisandre to begin the march south.

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I strongly believe that Stannis will win. Granted he has approximately 2 350 less men than House Bolton, but Stannis is a far better commander. Also, Roose's men are mostly aligned with him against their will. The only secure allies that the Boltons possess are the Freys. Not to mention Roose is dividing his armies in order to fight Stannis away from Winterfell-as well as to get rid of potential threats. However I do not believe any of Roose's insecurities will be his undoing. I believe that Roose will be killed within Winterfell long before Stannis arrives. Roose shall die at the hands of The Ghost of Winterfell, Benjen Stark.



(Before I get into that part I'd like to further explain what will happen next.)



Now with Roose dead, the Freys in the vanguard, and Ramsay preoccupied commanding, there is not a whole lot keeping the Northerners at bay. They could easily revolt and help Stannis win. Once the Northerners take Winterfell and Stannis' forces defeat Ramsay's, Stannis will obviously be quite pleased. However He will soon confide that he made a dire mistake. I think that Stannis sent The Pink Letter. He tried asking Jon for assistance as a gentleman and that didn't work so he went with something else. If you take a look at the context of The Pink Letter, Stannis could have had all of the information once Theon had arrived.



He knew Jon well enough to know what would entice him into coming south. What he didn't know-which worked in his favour-was that Jon was about to get stabbed. Once Jon gets revived-in one of the million ways possible for it to happen-he will be free of his vows to The Night's Watch, and thus will take the Wildlings with him to avenge his family. Upon arrival Jon will find the gates open and he will see Ramsay standing on the walls waiting for him. Then Stannis will step into view with a sword in hand and say, "He's all yours, Bastard."



Now back to The Ghost of Winterfell. It has been explicitly stated that Coldhands is not Benjen Stark, so now what important role could he possibly play? First off, I believe that Euron=Daario is true so the whole Benjen=Daario thing is off the table here. That leaves The Ghost of Winterfell. Benjen will be striking back to avenge his nephew while possibly being in a good position to tell another nephew about his mother. For the record, I can in no way explain where Benjen was prior to becoming The Ghost of Winterfell other than he figured that if the world believed him to be dead then he couldn't be used as a hostage.



I know that things got a bit off topic but I also need to have proof that I said this in case I'm right. After having typed all of this I am ecstatic to see how many flaws can be pointed out.


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