Olenna's Targaryen Prince: Duncan the Small?

[History of Westeros]

We have Dunk (a loyalist), acknowledging that "Half the realm was for the red dragon, and half was for the black." So, without any kind of evidence, we should assume a 50% chance.

I think the chance is greater that 50% that the Redwynes would've been pro-Blackfyre. More than half the Reach was for Daemon, from what we can tell. If the true roll call was made known it might not look that way but given what we know, the Reach was more pro-Daemon than not.

[History of Westeros]

... I'm saying he might have accepted it and then changed his mind when it felt through.

I still think Duncan makes the most intuitive sense, but at this point I do think it's between him and the third son. I just think much more is explained in terms of motivations and outcomes if it's Duncan. But if it's not Duncan, then by process of elimination it almost has to be the third son.

I think the timeline fits better for the 3rd son.

Though I disagree with most of what Sevumar has said, one thing he's right on is that it would be weird for Duncan and Olenna to be unmarried so late in their respective lives. This, and the lack of name, point to the 3rd son.

You're certainly right that there are really not very many possibilities.

I must've missed it somewhere though.. Why can't it be Jaehaerys?

[Frey Pie]

They kept Stannis out of the war for a year, that's a long time to be out of a war. Daenerys also regards them as one of the few houses to remain loyal to the Targaryens and noted that they had no reason to love the present regime in KL. The same regime that held Paxter's sons hostage. Be that as it may; if there were bitter feelings in the past over a broken marriage pact between Redwyne and Targaryen something significant was done for them to remain loyal till then end.

The main Stormland strength was already with Robert, or dead at Ashford. Stannis probably had 500 men with him. In Clash the Tyrells have raised about 60-70000 men. Were all these needed to siege? To me their actions stink of staying on the fence

[jarl the climber]

The main Stormland strength was already with Robert, or dead at Ashford. Stannis probably had 500 men with him. In Clash the Tyrells have raised about 60-70000 men. Were all these needed to siege? To me their actions stink of staying on the fence

I mentioned this earleir in the thread but Kevan states in the epilouge that he too considered Mace to be rabid in his support of Aerys.

[Frey Pie]

I really do love you.

Biggest takeaway: Whether Olenna was dumped or did the dumping, House Redwyne had something House Targaryen wanted, to compel the marriage suit. We're meant to wonder what it was. The Redwynes have good wine and a bigass navy. Gee, I wonder what would have been of more use?

Apple I don't know if you've seen what iv said elsewhere but your topic I feel goes nicely with the mystery of why Rhaegar didn't have twice the men the rebels had at the Trident. To me the Redwyne and Tyrells war effort in Roberts rebellion is minimal. Any say the reach had was purely Randyll Tarly- he defeated Robert and he sent a few rebel lords heads to KL. Where were the flowers at the Trident? Where was the fleet at Dragonstone?

[Frey Pie]

I mentioned this earleir in the thread but Kevan states in the epilouge that he too considered Mace to be rabid in his support of Aerys.

Sorry jarl I didn't see your post! Hmm interesting. I'm not sure where I see the evidence. I don't remember the passage but ill take your word for it

However I will point out the Lannisters are fallible.....doran, oberyn, LF etc

[Lykos]

History of Westeros, I also feel the third son is a better fit, but since I haven´t got the facts straight yet it´s for the sole reason that the Duncan and Jenny story has become very popular and I think it would have been hard (though not impossible) to keep Olenna out of it.

I have a couple of questions.

• Maekar was killed by a rebel lord in 233 - was this one of the BF rebellions?
  
• Wouldn´t it make sense for the Redwynes to put their eggs in different baskets, just as the Swanns did as Tyrion notes.
  
• The Redwynes settle for a lift of the taxes after the Battle of the Blackwater. Clearly trade is more important than land.
  
• The Lyseni pirates are the main threat to their trade. Lyseni merchants were most likely involved in the war of the 9PK. They also grow wine on Lys, so Lys is competition.
  

All in all it makes a lot of sense that the Redwynes had a huge interest in the war of the 9PK, which ended with Maelys´ death 259. Let´s say the BFR III ended 233, the IInd ended 212 and the Ist 196 that leaves the option for the IVth to happen at the time of Olenna Redwyne´s flowering 248 or so. Duncan the Small named Barristan "the Bold" in 247. It seems very likely that Duncan hasn´t been married to Jenny yet. I just don´t know. :dunno:

[History of Westeros]

History of Westeros, I also feel the third son is a better fit, but since I haven´t got the facts straight yet it´s for the sole reason that the Duncan and Jenny story has become very popular and I think it would have been hard (though not impossible) to keep Olenna out of it.

I have a couple of questions.

• Maekar was killed by a rebel lord in 233 - was this one of the BF rebellions?
  

No, GRRM stated this in a SSM. Would dearly love to know who it was, but it was definitively not a BF.

• Wouldn´t it make sense for the Redwynes to put their eggs in different baskets, just as the Swanns did as Tyrion notes.
  

and the Butterwells, and the Hightowers on more than one occasion (dunno if BF rebellion was one of those times). This could make sense, but it's possible they did nothing, or showed up "late" a la Lord Frey. Or like Mace Tyrell during RR, they could've raised their banners and attacked something unimportant. Looking loyal but not really committing. (Mace may have been truly committed, but he put his large host to very little use.

• The Redwynes settle for a lift of the taxes after the Battle of the Blackwater. Clearly trade is more important than land.
  
• The Lyseni pirates are the main threat to their trade. Lyseni merchants were most likely involved in the war of the 9PK. They also grow wine on Lys, so Lys is competition.
  

Ninepenny kings were a group of pirates, *merchants* and mercenaries so I'd say you are onto something. Lyseni merchants turning the Lyseni pirates towards their competition in organized fashion. This is a decent piece of evidence indicating the Redwynes would be anti-Blackfyre later in the game. This incentive would not exist during the first two BF rebellions at the least, though. Because there was no alliance or connection to Lys that we know of.

Though they definitely had contact with the Free Cities before the Battle of Redgrass Field. Lord Osgrey mentioned that a contingent of Myrish crossbowmen were on their way to fight for Daemon. Perhaps they had already started looking to Lys for help with ships/navy.

All in all it makes a lot of sense that the Redwynes had a huge interest in the war of the 9PK, which ended with Maelys´ death 259. Let´s say the BFR III ended 233, the IInd ended 212 and the Ist 196 that leaves the option for the IVth to happen at the time of Olenna Redwyne´s flowering 248 or so. Duncan the Small named Barristan "the Bold" in 247. It seems very likely that Duncan hasn´t been married to Jenny yet. I just don´t know. :dunno:

and the war ended on the Stepstones, which implies naval action. Perhaps the Royal fleet dropped Barristan and co. off on the Stepstones, but it seems likely the Redwyne fleet would be involved.

[Ser Leftwich]

The main Stormland strength was already with Robert, or dead at Ashford. Stannis probably had 500 men with him. In Clash the Tyrells have raised about 60-70000 men. Were all these needed to siege? To me their actions stink of staying on the fence

Just because Mace could rally that many this time, doesn't mean he could every time. You are assuming that the Tyrell's had time to rally all of the forces at their disposal. With Robert on the fast march to Ashford, Mace would not have time to rally all the Reach forces to go fight him.

Extending this idea, mayhaps not everyone in the Reach contributed all the forces they could to join the siege forces later.

[Khal Rhaggat - Cart King]

If this was indeed the case then something must have been done to smooth things over with the Redwyne's. They ended up being one of House Targaryen's most loyal, if not the most loyal bannermen during Robert's rebellion.

Agreed. Olenna wasn't pissed enough to get the Tyrells to rebel... And, it seems like she is the one calling the shots. That's the biggest thing against this theory IMHO.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I think the timeline fits better for the 3rd son.

Though I disagree with most of what Sevumar has said, one thing he's right on is that it would be weird for Duncan and Olenna to be unmarried so late in their respective lives. This, and the lack of name, point to the 3rd son.

You're certainly right that there are really not very many possibilities.

I must've missed it somewhere though.. Why can't it be Jaehaerys?

The idea is that the marriage suit came about when Olenna was very young and Duncan was older, and that he would've had to wait for her to, uh, flower. During that time he fell in love with Jenny and broke the suit. It likely can't be Jaehaerys because he'd already be married by the time the suit broke up. Which brings up Son 3 as an alternative, possibly the one Olenna was offered and turned down, meaning she's telling the truth but only part of it.

An engagement that was broken because it went on for too long could help explain why the Tyrells were so eager for Margaery to marry Tommen and Joffrey despite their ages.

[Lykos]

No, GRRM stated this in a SSM. Would dearly love to know who it was, but it was definitively not a BF.

Ah, good to know. Not even a loyalist? Do you have a link handy? Well if the BFRs are a generation thing it should´ve happened in 228 and the IVth in 244, which makes Aegon 25 years late. How old is Varys again? :P

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Agreed. Olenna wasn't pissed enough to get the Tyrells to rebel... And, it seems like she is the one calling the shots. That's the biggest thing against this theory IMHO.

Something WAS done to smooth things over: Duncan was cut from the succession.

[Frey Pie]

Just because Mace could rally that many this time, doesn't mean he could every time. You are assuming that the Tyrell's had time to rally all of the forces at their disposal. With Robert on the fast march to Ashford, Mace would not have time to rally all the Reach forces to go fight him.

Extending this idea, mayhaps not everyone in the Reach contributed all the forces they could to join the siege forces later.

Just because Mace could rally that many this time, doesn't mean he could every time. You are assuming that the Tyrell's had time to rally all of the forces at their disposal. With Robert on the fast march to Ashford, Mace would not have time to rally all the Reach forces to go fight him.

Extending this idea, mayhaps not everyone in the Reach contributed all the forces they could to join the siege forces later.

Enough to siege SE and its meager garrison, and send a few thousand Rhaegars way? I dont know of any reason why the Reach population or its wealth has grown so much in 15 or so years. If Mace and Tarly had enough to batter Robert and the cream of the Stormlands then i assume they had a nice sized host.

Theres no mention of Reachlords not joining the loyalists and i would think there would be seen as George has fleshed this part of the story out fairly well. Dornes 10000 spears is perhaps a full third of there total forces available. Had Mace sent the same number then Rhaegars host would be vastly strengthened. It would take the Hightowers and a number of the more powerful Reachlords to sit out of the rebellion to effect the Reach host so much

[bbstark]

quick question: We can't really arrive at these conclusions with substantial evidence without reading the Tales of Dunk and Egg (I haven't), am I correct?

By reading just the 5 books of ASOIAF, you can only really file this under speculation.

[A Crow Come Over]

Nods for this one go to posters in the R+L=J thread for ... somehow ... landing on this topic. :D

We know Olenna almost married a member of House Targaryen and she claims to have done everything possible in order prevent that from happening. The identity of her intended is never revealed. It seems commonly speculated that it was one of the, uh, nuttier Targaryens and that Olenna really did want to avoid the marriage at all costs.

However, what if it's the opposite, and Olenna was actually spurned? She's a very proud woman; rather than admit to someone like Sansa that her marriage contract was nullified, wouldn't she be just the sort to pull a sour grapes routine (she is a Redwyne ...) and say that no, it didn't happen because she didn't want it to? Wouldn't it be a boon for House Redwyne to marry any Targaryen?

We know that Duncan the Small fell in love with Jenny of Oldstones against his father's wishes and gave up his crown. This seems to suggest that Aegon V had another suit in mind when Duncan decided to be with Jenny.

Olenna obviously went on to marry Luthor Tyrell and, while it seems that she wasn't too impressed with him, she had his children and generally did her wifely duties. The "Queen of Thorns" ties her chiefly to House Tyrell, and it can be surmised, probably correctly in terms of her later life, that it's because of her sharp barbs and wit. But what if it was originally intended to be mocking? Olenna lost her chance to be Queen of Westeros and is now the Queen of "Thorns" (the Tyrells) instead. Loras isn't amused when Sansa refers to Olenna by this nickname — is it because Olenna herself, knowing its origins, isn't amused by it either? It seems like the sort of thing that's evolved to mean something else (again, her wit). Wouldn't Olenna embrace it or be fond of it, knowing that it's actually a compliment of sorts? Not if she knows that its origin is anything but complimentary.

This also begs the question as to why Aegon V would want to marry Duncan to a Redwyne in the first place. My answer to that is: probably the Redwyne navy, specifically that if Aegon V knew that the Blackfyres were making inroads in the Free Cities and possibly setting up to invade the Stepstones (War of the Ninepenny Kings), he would want to have a naval power in his pocket. While the Wot9PK occurred very late in Aegon's reign, it wouldn't surprise me if he had been preparing for such a conflict for a longer period of time by trying to consolidate a naval force, which might very well include a marriage contract with one of the most powerful naval families.

Finally, all of this goes a very long way toward explaining — beyond the usual reasons of power and wealth — why the Tyrells are so keen for Margaery to be queen. Mace is the head of the house, but Olenna's the real power and the one really making the big decisions or at least planting the seeds. Olenna loves her granddaughter and sees her as a protege. By making Margaery a queen, Olenna can live vicariously through her and put Margaery in a position that she was unable to attain.

interesting idea, but too much conjecture at this point.

[Lykos]

bbstark, I think you have the most important information in Dance, but the D&E tales will increase your awareness and give you some dates. As far as I´m concerned it still is speculation with the D&E info included, but pretty good speculation.

[Ser Leftwich]

Enough to siege SE and its meager garrison, and send a few thousand Rhaegars way? I dont know of any reason why the Reach population or its wealth has grown so much in 15 or so years. If Mace and Tarly had enough to batter Robert and the cream of the Stormlands then i assume they had a nice sized host.

Theres no mention of Reachlords not joining the loyalists and i would think there would be seen as George has fleshed this part of the story out fairly well. Dornes 10000 spears is perhaps a full third of there total forces available. Had Mace sent the same number then Rhaegars host would be vastly strengthened. It would take the Hightowers and a number of the more powerful Reachlords to sit out of the rebellion to effect the Reach host so much

I am not saying the Reach has changed in population, just that not all the lords sent all the forces they could muster to join Mace. For political reasons or just hedging. Once Robert is chased north, there is not as much favor/booty to win just joining the seige, so the Hightower's, etc do not send all the troops they can, just some, hence not 60,000 outside SE.

There was some manner of SSM or something that reported some Reach forces at the Trident, just not many.

(Wow, just realized how off topic this is, sorry.)

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

interesting idea, but too much conjecture at this point.

Most of the truly interesting ideas are, I'm afraid. If it's not conjecture it becomes much less of an achievement for figuring it out.

[Frey Pie]

I am not saying the Reach has changed in population, just that not all the lords sent all the forces they could muster to join Mace. For political reasons or just hedging. Once Robert is chased north, there is not as much favor/booty to win just joining the seige, so the Hightower's, etc do not send all the troops they can, just some, hence not 60,000 outside SE.

There was some manner of SSM or something that reported some Reach forces at the Trident, just not many.

(Wow, just realized how off topic this is, sorry.)

Not off topic at all IMO as my theory is that Olenna purposely hindered any attempts to send to many men or ships to the Targs because she felt jilted. This theory for me explains why the Reach wasnt properly represented at the Trident. And there is simply no mention of the Hightowers or any other Reach lord not taking any sides IIRC