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Olenna's Targaryen Prince: Duncan the Small?

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I'm not sure that it can be Aerion's son either. Wasn't he an infant when Maekar I died? He was passed over in the succession and pretty much left to obscurity; I can't imagine that anyone would have tried to make a marriage match for him. And Aerion himself is too old.

Yes and that would put him about the right age to marry Olenna. If he had lived he would be around 70 something. Roughly the age I guess Olenna to be around. Maybe he tried to pursue the match himself. Anyway I find it odd that he disappeared. Egg's not the sort to harm his family.

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Also, it's unusual that the Targaryens would want to marry such a lowly house. When they weren't marrying each other, the Targaryens seemed to favour marrying Martells to keep the alliance healthy. If there were no Targaryen or Martell heirs on hand, or no immediate need to cement the Iron Throne through marriage, it is quite strange that they'd pick a house that's relatively lowly instead of picking a Great House. To secure the Reach it'd make much more sense to marry a Tyrell than a Redwyne. Especially since the Tyrells owe their standing to the Targaryens; it'd be odd to empower a rival house with a mariage to the Iron Throne that could undo the peace within the Reach.

Just a few points.

1. It can make good sense to choose a lower house than a paramount one. Bringing a paramount house up to the level of the royal family could cause a power imbalance among the other great houses (similar to the Lannisters now), whereas choosing a wife from a lesser family could in theory keep that family from getting too big of an influence or turning paramount houses against each other.

2. We have a record of Viserys I marrying a Hightower. If a Hightower is acceptable, why not a Redwyne? Not to mention Maegor I having a Westerling wife and Elaena marrying a Plumm.

3. This is hard to guess until the World of Ice and Fire comes out, but we don't know who Maekar I, Aegon V and Jaeherys II married. Given that the latter two married for love and Maekar's sister Aelinor married Aerys I, I'm taking a wild guess that they didn't marry family members. We don't see any of the paramount houses, other than the Martells and Baratheons, who have recent Targaryen ties. So maybe they married women from slightly lesser houses, too. The later preoccupation with blood purity seems to stem mainly from Aerys; I'm not sure it would've been a consideraton for Aegon V, given that he had Rhaelle and married her to a Baratheon instead of to one of her brothers.

4. I pointed out that a Redwyne pick could easily come down to an advantage they offered Aegon — namely a navy — and not because of any real affinity for the house.

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Yes and that would put him about the right age to marry Olenna. If he had lived he would be around 70 something. Roughly the age I guess Olenna to be around. Maybe he tried to pursue the match himself. Anyway I find it odd that he disappeared. Egg's not the sort to harm his family.

He's going to pursue his own marriage match as a small child or pre-teen? Don't see it, sorry. Egg's not the sort to harm his family but he's also not the sort to make marriage contacts for a disinherited (and thus politically useless) nephew.

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Yes and that would put him about the right age to marry Olenna. If he had lived he would be around 70 something. Roughly the age I guess Olenna to be around. Maybe he tried to pursue the match himself. Anyway I find it odd that he disappeared. Egg's not the sort to harm his family.

70 would be about the upper bound for Olenna's age, I think, if she was in the peak of her childbearing years in the 250s.

As for Aerion's son, I don't think any harm came to him. He may have died for other reasons, or simply lived an unremarkable life since he wasn't in line for the throne. He may have thought to make a Joy Hill-like match for the kid if he lived to a reasonable age and had an interest in marrying.

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Also, it's unusual that the Targaryens would want to marry such a lowly house. When they weren't marrying each other, the Targaryens seemed to favour marrying Martells to keep the alliance healthy. If there were no Targaryen or Martell heirs on hand, or no immediate need to cement the Iron Throne through marriage, it is quite strange that they'd pick a house that's relatively lowly instead of picking a Great House. To secure the Reach it'd make much more sense to marry a Tyrell than a Redwyne. Especially since the Tyrells owe their standing to the Targaryens; it'd be odd to empower a rival house with a mariage to the Iron Throne that could undo the peace within the Reach.

I am not so sure if we can call the Redwynes a lowly house, they aren't lord paramount but they are powerful in their own right, the Redwynes are rich and that one single house has a fleet of 200-300 warships, a 1000 ships if you count all the trading vessels, and the Targaryens have been known to make marriage pacts among other houses that are not ruling houses, like House Strong of HH, Hightowers, Velaryon.

Also the two houses Hightowers and Redwynes are the most powerful houses in the Reach, it is not necessary to have marraige alliance with the Tyrells to secure the Reach.

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He's going to pursue his own marriage match as a small child or pre-teen? Don't see it, sorry. Egg's not the sort to harm his family but he's also not the sort to make marriage contacts for a disinherited (and thus politically useless) nephew.

This is the biggie. Olenna is telling this story right at the same time she's telling how she was against Margaery wedding Renly. I never thought Olenna was actually against Marg marrying Renly, it was just something she said because the walls have ears. But you're right. Egg wouldn't have made a match between his older brother's son and a powerful house because it would potentially be harmful to his family and stability. It was be a provocation if the Redwynes pursued the match. But if Olenna is trying to make herself appear completely harmless, two comments about how she follows the rules and is not interested in power, even if it would make her a queen would help.

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I am not so sure if we can call the Redwynes a lowly house, they aren't lord paramount but they are powerful in their own right, the Redwynes are rich and that one single house has a fleet of 200-300 warships, a 1000 ships if you count all the trading vessels, and the Targaryens have been known to make marriage pacts among other houses that are not ruling houses, like House Strong of HH, Hightowers, Velaryon.

Also the two houses Hightowers and Redwynes are the most powerful houses in the Reach, it is not necessary to have marraige alliance with the Tyrells to secure the Reach.

But it'd be politically stupid for the Targaryens to marry a house in the Reach that isn't the Tyrells. The Redwynes are a lowly house in that they are vassals to the Tyrells, not that they are poor or cannot do much.

Given this, were the Targaryens to make House Redwyne married to the Crown then it'd make them effectively more powerful than the Tyrells - and there's already some shakiness to the Tyrell's grip on the Reach due to so many houses having a similar claim. It'd risk a struggle for succession.

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But it'd be politically stupid for the Targaryens to marry a house in the Reach that isn't the Tyrells. The Redwynes are a lowly house in that they are vassals to the Tyrells, not that they are poor or cannot do much.

Given this, were the Targaryens to make House Redwyne married to the Crown then it'd make them effectively more powerful than the Tyrells - and there's already some shakiness to the Tyrell's grip on the Reach due to so many houses having a similar claim. It'd risk a struggle for succession.

And yet none of that stopped Viserys I from marrying a Hightower. Everything you said about the Redwynes equally applies to the Hightowers, surely, and yet he still married one. I'd be more willing to buy your idea that the Targaryens would never marry into a vassal Reach house, were it not for the fact that they've done it before.

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It's a good theory, but I can just as well see that Olenna did refuse a Targaryen (not necessarily Duncan, perhaps another of Aegon V's children (Jaehaerys, who was sickly looking? the unknown son?) and then got mocked afterwards for choosing to be the queen of thorns.

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<snip>

I'm glad you find it interesting, that means a lot (and same gratitude to DP).

The more I think about it, the more hilarious it is that a woman from House Redwyne would have a bad case of sour grapes. "I didn't want that Targaryen marriage anyway." "The Renly alliance was a terrible idea, I told them so."

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Aerion Brightflame was Egg's (Aegon V) and maester Aemon's older Brother, he was born in 192 AL and died 232 AL. The time in the books is 300 AL. Lady Oleana's age is not mentioned or noted but say she was 12-14 at time of betrothal and say he was most probably older - say she may have been born around 215 AL (making her 85 in present book time. Bethrothal around 227-229 AL. It is cancelled and he finds another. I started another post on this subject. I am comfortable with it.

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And yet none of that stopped Viserys I from marrying a Hightower. Everything you said about the Redwynes equally applies to the Hightowers, surely, and yet he still married one. I'd be more willing to buy your idea that the Targaryens would never marry into a vassal Reach house, were it not for the fact that they've done it before.

Also as far as I can tell, the Tyrells didn't have any females of the correct generation (wiki says Luthor had 3 brothers) so it could well be a case of available breeding stock.

Oh and that navy the Redwynes have.

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Aerion Brightflame was Egg's (Aegon V) and maester Aemon's older Brother, he was born in 192 AL and died 232 AL. The time in the books is 300 AL. Lady Oleana's age is not mentioned or noted but say she was 12-14 at time of betrothal and say he was most probably older - say she may have been born around 215 AL (making her 85 in present book time. Bethrothal around 227-229 AL. It is cancelled and he finds another. I started another post on this subject. I am comfortable with it.

I think you're highballing her age by a fair bit. I'd peg her as more ~75.

Also as far as I can tell, the Tyrells didn't have any females of the correct generation (wiki says Luthor had 3 brothers) so it could well be a case of available breeding stock.

Oh and that navy the Redwynes have.

Also a possibility.

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And yet none of that stopped Viserys I from marrying a Hightower. Everything you said about the Redwynes equally applies to the Hightowers, surely, and yet he still married one. I'd be more willing to buy your idea that the Targaryens would never marry into a vassal Reach house, were it not for the fact that they've done it before.

He wasn't succeeded by his children, though. At least, he wasn't supposed to be. He probably assumed he wasn't doing anything wrong because Rhaenyra was meant to succeed him.

In fact, the fallout from that marriage is even less reason to marry a vassal house rather than the Tyrells.

ETA

Also as far as I can tell, the Tyrells didn't have any females of the correct generation (wiki says Luthor had 3 brothers) so it could well be a case of available breeding stock.

Oh and that navy the Redwynes have.

That too. :P

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I think you're highballing her age by a fair bit. I'd peg her as more ~75.

Also a possibility.

Mayhaps i am. Just a note, it says Aerion when he died left an infant/newborn son. My timing I still think is in "the zone". Anyways, i love this lady though. What a Woman!!!

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He wasn't succeeded by his children, though. At least, he wasn't supposed to be. He probably assumed he wasn't doing anything wrong because Rhaenyra was meant to succeed him.

There is always a chance that something can happen and you'll end up needing children from your second wife. It's also not just a matter of the children; the in-laws have quite a bit of political influence regardless. So if you think the Targaryens wouldn't ever marry the Redwynes, you have to explain why they were willing to marry a Hightower, and who knows how many other vassal houses we don't know about.

In fact, the fallout from that marriage is even less reason to marry a vassal house rather than the Tyrells.

How so?

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But it'd be politically stupid for the Targaryens to marry a house in the Reach that isn't the Tyrells. The Redwynes are a lowly house in that they are vassals to the Tyrells, not that they are poor or cannot do much.

Given this, were the Targaryens to make House Redwyne married to the Crown then it'd make them effectively more powerful than the Tyrells - and there's already some shakiness to the Tyrell's grip on the Reach due to so many houses having a similar claim. It'd risk a struggle for succession.

Perhaps, but the Tyrells were named warden of the south by the Targaryens in the first place, and no, Redwynes and Hightowers are already more powerful than the Tyrells in their own right, whether a Hightower or Redwyne marries a Targaryen, they can gain favor yes sure, but would the Tyrells take it as slight that one of their own bannermen's daughter married a Targaryen, i think not, that would seem peevish. Nor do I think the balance of power would shift in the reach drastically.

In fact, the fallout from that marriage is even less reason to marry a vassal house rather than the Tyrells.

The marriage had nothing to do with the dance of dragons, it was about who should sit the IT, Rhaeneys or her half brother, people supported her half brother also because he was male and according to westerosi custom a male comes before female in line of succession.

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There is always a chance that something can happen and you'll end up needing children from your second wife. It's also not just a matter of the children; the in-laws have quite a bit of political influence regardless. So if you think the Targaryens wouldn't ever marry the Redwynes, you have to explain why they were willing to marry a Hightower, and who knows how many other vassal houses we don't know about.

I daresay they have married other vassals, but it seems Viserys didn't plan on his marriage being anything other than an enjoyable fancy for himself that wasn't supposed to cause a war. Are there any records of the Targaryens marrying other vassals in the Reach? I don't actually know, but it would seem strange to potentially spoil the power balance in the region with the most strong houses.

How so?

Had Viserys married a Great House, his children would've had an entire Great House, plus their vassals, to press their claim. Perhaps that would've discouraged Rhaenyra from making her claim. Perhaps not, but the way to minimise risks is to keep power always vested in the same places.

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70 would be about the upper bound for Olenna's age, I think, if she was in the peak of her childbearing years in the 250s.

As for Aerion's son, I don't think any harm came to him. He may have died for other reasons, or simply lived an unremarkable life since he wasn't in line for the throne. He may have thought to make a Joy Hill-like match for the kid if he lived to a reasonable age and had an interest in marrying.

It really depends if Mace is her first child or not, but I would peg her around 65-70.

As for Aerion he would have had a pretty strong claim to the throne had he matured. If anything you want to give him as low a marriage as possible to stop the possibility of him rising up. Aegon's claim to the throne over him was pretty flimsy. Ironically it is weaker than Daemon's claim.

Aerion Brightflame was Egg's (Aegon V) and maester Aemon's older Brother, he was born in 192 AL and died 232 AL. The time in the books is 300 AL. Lady Oleana's age is not mentioned or noted but say she was 12-14 at time of betrothal and say he was most probably older - say she may have been born around 215 AL (making her 85 in present book time. Bethrothal around 227-229 AL. It is cancelled and he finds another. I started another post on this subject. I am comfortable with it.

If she is 85 why is her eldest child in his fourties? It is possible, but too much of a stretch. I think you are you are trying to force the facts to fit the picture you want to paint. Whether Olenna was rejected or did the rejecting the Targaryen in question really must be the generation after Egg.

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It really depends if Mace is her first child or not, but I would peg her around 65-70.

As for Aerion he would have had a pretty strong claim to the throne had he matured. If anything you want to give him as low a marriage as possible to stop the possibility of him rising up. Aegon's claim to the throne over him was pretty flimsy. Ironically it is weaker than Daemon's claim.

If she is 85 why is her eldest child in his fourties? It is possible, but too much of a stretch. I think you are you are trying to force the facts to fit the picture you want to paint. Whether Olenna was rejected or did the rejecting the Targaryen in question really must be the generation after Egg.

book Oleana implies she atleast met Aerion and said that he seemed "comely enough", this is mentioned when she is asking Sansa about Joff and Sansa is giving them the run around out of fear. We may never know until the Dunk and Egg series progresses further. That is where this mystery Targ betrothed may be answered.

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