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Olenna's Targaryen Prince: Duncan the Small?

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We learn about this from Barristan. He's not exactly a conceptual thinker. Very black and white, that one.

The Redwynes were loyal to the Tyrells during Robert's Rebellion. Their support during the war was holding the sea blockade of Storm's End. They bent the knee just like everyone else, even when Viserys was still alive on Dragonstone.

What I'm saying is that Barristan is very unspecific about what he means when he recalls "treason and turmoil." This is a man with a rigid code of ethics and whose perception of what is treason may not even match the Crown's perception. But we know none of the details. From the history that we have, there's no treason or turmoil to pick out. Now, that may simply mean that we're not given a level of detail about these times that permits the truth to come through, but there are many people alive who lived through these times, and none of them have related anything that fits Barristan's description.

The Redwynes did their duty to the Crown and bent knee when their cause became hopeless, just as their overlords did. A Redwyne family that felt spurned by the Targaryens of a generation ago might not even feel obligated to do that.

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The Redwynes did their duty to the Crown and bent knee when their cause became hopeless, just as their overlords did. A Redwyne family that felt spurned by the Targaryens of a generation ago might not even feel obligated to do that.

And I'm saying that if Aegon did something extraordinary to win them back — like disinheriting Duncan — then it wouldn't be an issue any longer. These aren't the Freys.

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What I'm saying is that Barristan is very unspecific about what he means when he recalls "treason and turmoil." This is a man with a rigid code of ethics and whose perception of what is treason may not even match the Crown's perception. But we know none of the details. From the history that we have, there's no treason or turmoil to pick out. Now, that may simply mean that we're not given a level of detail about these times that permits the truth to come through, but there are many people alive who lived through these times, and none of them have related anything that fits Barristan's description.

The Redwynes did their duty to the Crown and bent knee when their cause became hopeless, just as their overlords did. A Redwyne family that felt spurned by the Targaryens of a generation ago might not even feel obligated to do that.

There's significant turmoil to pick out during this time. We have the War of the Ninepenny Kings! The War of the Ninepenny Kings shouldn't have reached the point of fighting on the ground in hand-to-hand combat in the Stepstones. A 1200 ship navy would have gone a long way to preventing the battle from ever moving past the sea. The aftermath of the 9PK eventually led to Robert's Rebellion when several of the Great Houses began to band together with marriage arrangements and fosterings and such. Bad for the crown, eventually usefull for the rest of the noble realm.

The Redwynes did their duty to the Tyrells, who are family by marriage. As Apple pointed out, Duncan was disinherited from the succession. That might have gone a long way to smoothing things over, but it's not like it was enough for them to do more than sit and drink and eat outside the walls of Storm's End while the rest of the realm was battling it out in the Riverlands. They didn't risk anything. Any loyalty you are suggesting they had to the Targs is actually loyalty they showed towards the Tyrells. This isn't any different from the Redwynes remaining loyal to the Tyrells during the War of the Five Kings.

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snip

As Apple pointed out, Duncan was disinherited from the succession.

snip

There is a significant difference between Duncan abdicating, before the fact, and Duncan being removed from the succession by Egg. We do not know which actually happened.

Here is a thought about what the QoT, I have not re-read her passages, so this is a little off the top of the head.

The plan that Loras and Renly had of introducing Margaery to Robert in order for Robert to set aside Cersei always seemed a little too intelligent to have come from them. Maybe this was a plan set up by the QoT and not really from Renly and Loras.

She is rather critical of the rather ham-handed way that Mace goes about Margaery becoming the queen, through Renly. Maybe the QoT already had a plan in the works for Margaery.

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snip

snip

There is a significant difference between Duncan abdicating, before the fact, and Duncan being removed from the succession by Egg. We do not know which actually happened.

Here is a thought about what the QoT, I have not re-read her passages, so this is a little off the top of the head.

The plan that Loras and Renly had of introducing Margaery to Robert in order for Robert to set aside Cersei always seemed a little too intelligent to have come from them. Maybe this was a plan set up by the QoT and not really from Renly and Loras.

She is rather critical of the rather ham-handed way that Mace goes about Margaery becoming the queen, through Renly. Maybe the QoT already had a plan in the works for Margaery.

Its hard to know if you're right or not. I like that theory alot but could it have also have been as simple as she knew backing Renly was a bad idea? She definitely could have been hatching a plan already, the talk of marrying Joeffry had to start the moment Neds head hit the ground, but who knows if the ball had already begun to roll. With what we know of her cunning its not a stretch to say that she wasn't prepared for Renly's death or Sansa being put aside.

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There's significant turmoil to pick out during this time. We have the War of the Ninepenny Kings! The War of the Ninepenny Kings shouldn't have reached the point of fighting on the ground in hand-to-hand combat in the Stepstones.

I've already said that the War of the Ninepenny Kings doesn't seem to fit the bill. Compared to the troubles that had wracked Westeros in Aegon's youth, the War of the Ninepenny Kings was considerably easier to manage. The people we know participated in the campaign came from all over Westeros, so it seems like Aegon was able to successfully raise an army, transport it to the Stepstones, and effectively take out the only member of the Band of Nine that his dynasty cared about.

Until the Band of Nine started making moves toward Westeros, they were a matter beyond the borders of the Seven Kingdoms. Even the Stepstones was territory unclaimed by any major power. For the king of the Seven Kingdoms to get involved prior to the point that he did probably would've been seen as unwelcome outside interference in an Essosi problem. The powers on each side of the Narrow Sea had traditionally stayed out of the affairs of the other, except for a couple of incidents. I don't think Aegon could've acted any earlier than he did. There's not enough information pointing to the fact that the presence or absence of a Redwyne fleet played a key role in the war.

The Redwynes did their duty to the Tyrells, who are family by marriage. As Apple pointed out, Duncan was disinherited from the succession. That might have gone a long way to smoothing things over...

We don't know whether Duncan abdicated his position as Crown Prince or whether he was compelled to give it up. We know little about the specifics of the laws governing succession to the Iron Throne except the change that occurred in the wake of the Dance of Dragons. The way the passage is worded in Barristan's recollection suggests that the action was taken by Duncan, not Aegon V. It comes across as the action of a man who desired a private life instead of a throne, and one who made his decision without regrets, but we won't know the specifics for certain until Martin gives them to us.

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The more the timeline gets sorted out, the more this makes sense. Duncan the Small is obviously closer in age with Olenna than Aerion would be. It also answers a lot of questions about how the realm paid the price with corpses when Duncan married his Jenny and why Duncan was removed from the line of succession. We've already seen a royal marry someone he wasn't supposed to marry, and he paid the price in corpses - Robb.

If Olenna organized Tragedy of Summerhall, than my mind will blow because of her awesomeness.

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A thought that came reading this thread: Aren't we still missing two Blackfyre Rebellions? The third and the fourth? TWot9PK was the fifth. These two rebellions had to happen during Egg's lifetime, or even specifically his reign.

Coupled with the "brideprice paid in corpses" and the "bitter enemies instead of fast friends" comments, that indicates that the marriages of Egg's children caused at least one of these rebellions, maybe both.

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I have always thought that the QOT is an interesting character that we need to see more of. I really like this theory and imo its very plausible, it explains some of the things that I have wondered about previously.

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To be honest, I always wanted more information about Olenna's past and expected some awesome actions. Whatever she has something to do with Summerhall, she's still very interesting.

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snip

snip

There is a significant difference between Duncan abdicating, before the fact, and Duncan being removed from the succession by Egg. We do not know which actually happened.

Here is a thought about what the QoT, I have not re-read her passages, so this is a little off the top of the head.

The plan that Loras and Renly had of introducing Margaery to Robert in order for Robert to set aside Cersei always seemed a little too intelligent to have come from them. Maybe this was a plan set up by the QoT and not really from Renly and Loras.

She is rather critical of the rather ham-handed way that Mace goes about Margaery becoming the queen, through Renly. Maybe the QoT already had a plan in the works for Margaery.

Another thought along these lines- Renly approached Ned with a miniature of Marg, saying he had been told she looked like Lyanna. By whom? Not his pal Loras, and obviously not Robert himself. What person involved with the Tyrells would remember Lyanna Stark and have the wit to realize that Robert still carried a torch for her? Certainly not Mace. I suggest that statement ->> to none other than the QoT.

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This is very good.

I always had the suspicion that Olenna was lying about the Targaryen husband story or even made it up. I just thought that she was one of the women who were rejected by the BLACKFISH. And to cover up that story she made up the whole thing to imply that she was too good even for a Targaryen. But then I saw that Olenna wasn't the Redwyne the Blackfish refused. And of course there was the age difference.

This however makes much more sense. I have nothing to add but keep posting because as usual this is great stuff :thumbsup:

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I don’t think that we have any valid reason to assume Olenna is lying. It’s not like she was cornered by someone about that event and had to lie about it out of pride. It’s an information she shares freely, plus it would be out of character for a straightforward woman like her to distort history for no apparent reason.

On the age issue I believe she must have been born between 225-.230 Hoster Tully was born in 235 and she admits she is older, I doubt she would mention that if the age difference was less than (let’s say) 3 years. I think it’s safe to assume that she is at least 5 years older and up to 10 (my personal belief is closer to 10).

With that in mind and knowing that Aegon had at least two sons by the age of 233 when he got the throne then both sons (and maybe the 3rd too) are candidates. Personally though, I see no reason why Aegon would want or need a Redwyne bride, especially for his first son and heir. If indeed she was supposed to be married within the royal family I think it was one of the younger sons (maybe ironically enough Jaehaerys who later ascended to the throne). Aerys sent Steffon Baratheon to the Free Cities in search of a suitable bride; I doubt a Redwyne would suffice for the Targaryen future king.

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A lot of this makes good sense but i would have to re-read parts about Olenna to formulate my own opinion. You are very convincing though especially because I'm not a fan of the QOT mainly because I think she is overrated and her depiction in the TV series

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Another thought along these lines- Renly approached Ned with a miniature of Marg, saying he had been told she looked like Lyanna. By whom? Not his pal Loras, and obviously not Robert himself. What person involved with the Tyrells would remember Lyanna Stark and have the wit to realize that Robert still carried a torch for her? Certainly not Mace. I suggest that statement ->> to none other than the QoT.

Nothing brilliant to say just that i love your theory. Never thought about it before but no one else makes sense as to who told Renly his sis looked like Lyanna. It could have been someone totally random who told him that. It could have been LF since he has his finger in that pie. It could even have been Varys just bc he has his finger in every pie. However QoT's makes perfect sense here. She had motive, means, and certainly credibility with Renly. He seemed legitimately disappointed when Ned didn't jump up and down screaming that it looked like Lyanna. That leads me to believe that he considered it a fact that they looked alike, and if it was LF would he really be that surprised that it was bs? I doubt it, but if his g-ma told him that his reaction would be exactly as it was. Suddenly I'm a believer that QoT's back story is not only worth knowing, but vital to know. She seems to have been a player in the game for 70+ years.

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Like I said, a lot of Olenna's skill is in maneuvering when other people can't implicate her in it. Remember too that the Renly thing looks especially bad now because it failed and Renly died. If it had worked out, in hindsight it wouldn't have been that bad of an idea.

Why would she be lying in this instance, though? The whole family was implicated with both Renly and the Lannisters. It's not exactly a secret, they made rather big shows of both occasions. At this stage avoiding personal implication, would only serve not to undermine her son and she has no trouble calling him an oaf to anyone who can listen. The only reason I can think would be to appear to Sansa as though she had nothing to do with her family allying with factions that were hostile to the Starks. If so that effort was wasted on Sansa.

Truth be told, we know little about her MO, aside from some asssumptions made by the things LF tells us. He is most certainly lying about his involvement in the Tyrell plot to kill Joffrey as the hair net came from Dontos. The personna we are acquinted with is rather ostentatious and she makes sure everyone knows that she's the brains in the family.

Your theory is entirely possible and that if she were indeed spurned by Duncan the Small it would make sense for her to try to conserve her pride. I don't think her current attitude is evidense, one way or the other.

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Apple and the RJL folks, great theory, and I'm ever so convinced. I'd say that Sevumar's timeline post really shored up the theory for me, clearly Aerion is too old, and his kid we don't know anything about, also I doubt it's someone outside the line of succession. I know it was mentioned up thread that a toddler Olenna would have been too young for a betrothal, but this is a series that has featured the marriage of an infant for the purposes of alliance, so while I think she was likely older than a toddler I see nothing to make me think it would be inappropriate or unusual for a toddler to have a betrothal contract.

Until the Band of Nine started making moves toward Westeros, they were a matter beyond the borders of the Seven Kingdoms. Even the Stepstones was territory unclaimed by any major power. For the king of the Seven Kingdoms to get involved prior to the point that he did probably would've been seen as unwelcome outside interference in an Essosi problem. The powers on each side of the Narrow Sea had traditionally stayed out of the affairs of the other, except for a couple of incidents. I don't think Aegon could've acted any earlier than he did. There's not enough information pointing to the fact that the presence or absence of a Redwyne fleet played a key role in the war.

Given that a naval blockade would have stymied the movement into the Stepstones, and given that the Redwyne fleet is the largest in the Kingdoms, I think what we know its not a stretch of any sort to see that a large navel presence was absent from the Wot9PK.

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Great theory. Something I'd never considered before but the discussion has gradually made it more sound.

Thoughts of the later affects of this. Maybe all the loyalists to Egg at the time were out of the Kingdom fighting the War of the Ninepenny Kings (which based on murky information may still have been active) and maybe they weren't fairing so well to start with so he got desperate and rolled the dice with birthing dragons. A tragedy happened which may have been instigated by these unhappy Lords who didn't get their own Targaryen Princes, possibly the Redwynes.

We know the war happened for a few years, starting around 258AL and one of the main band members didn't die for another 6/7 years (Alequo?), so maybe when Barristan and the Tully brothers heard of Aegon V's demise, it gave them the push they needed to end the war. Westeros most likely backed out after Maelys Blackfyre died.

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I don’t think that we have any valid reason to assume Olenna is lying. It’s not like she was cornered by someone about that event and had to lie about it out of pride. It’s an information she shares freely, plus it would be out of character for a straightforward woman like her to distort history for no apparent reason.

Eh... "straightforward" is not exactly a word I would associate with someone who orchestrates the poisoning of king on his very wedding feast.

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