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Olenna's Targaryen Prince: Duncan the Small?


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My point is they didn't really fight for anyone as much as they remained loyal to their in-laws. Olenna was a Tyrell by marriage at this point. The risk in maintaining a sea blockade is minimal when there is no one battling. We've seen time and time again that houses connected via marriage are reluctant to fight against one another. Whether their were bitter feelings or not, their loyalty to the Targaryens did not extend to actually fighting to protect the dynasty even when they had several months to do so.

Supporting the crown meant going against their lord paramount in Robert, so it could be both the fact that they were inlaws and that they had some sense of loyalty to the crown. That loyalty could be the Targaryens were responsible for the Tyrell-Redwyne union as compensation for the broken promise of marriage.
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Supporting the crown meant going against their lord paramount in Robert, so it could be both the fact that they were inlaws and that they had some sense of loyalty to the crown. That loyalty could be the Targaryens were responsible for the Tyrell-Redwyne union as compensation for the broken promise of marriage.

The Reach and the Stormlands are two separate regions. Robert is no more the Lord Paramount to the Redwynes than Tywin would be.

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This is an intersting read. Still it seems a little to speculative, it made me wonder when the World Book is supposed to come out. Just read that its been knocked back again to late 2014. So in another year and a half or so we might be able to settle this definitevly.

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The Reach and the Stormlands are two separate regions. Robert is no more the Lord Paramount to the Redwynes than Tywin would be.

I thought the Reach was under the Stormlands, but they're not. Won't be the last time I confuse the two.
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And yet none of that stopped Viserys I from marrying a Hightower. Everything you said about the Redwynes equally applies to the Hightowers, surely, and yet he still married one. I'd be more willing to buy your idea that the Targaryens would never marry into a vassal Reach house, were it not for the fact that they've done it before.

Isn't the easy answer to this that Viserys I had dragons (so he didn't need to worry about alliances) and Aegon V did not? GRRM has said that Targs with dragons could get away with things that Targs without dragons could not.

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So happy to see this discussion kept going!

I'm also glad that someone included GRRM's info about her age. If we use 300 AL as a present baseline, and say she's 65 (right in the middle), that puts her birth at ~235, probably only a few years younger than Duncan and in her early-to-mid-20s at the time of Summerhall in 259, meaning she would've been in the prime age for a suit in the early-to-mid-250s. I think this effectively shuts down the age obstacle question. It also drastically narrows down her possible suitors; Aerion and his son are almost certainly out of the equation now. There weren't that many Targaryens available, given that Aegon V became king when he was bottom of the barrel. She obviously didn't marry Jaehaerys II, so barring some as-yet-unknown cousin, it seems like it either has to be Duncan or the unnnamed third son.

Here's an idea: She was slated to marry Duncan and Duncan broke the suit, and she was instead offered the third son and that is the Targaryen marriage she turned down. So she's technically telling the truth, just only part of it. :D

And of course GRRM's teasing about her suit suggests that there's more to it than what we've learned so far.

Supporting the crown meant going against their lord paramount in Robert, so it could be both the fact that they were inlaws and that they had some sense of loyalty to the crown. That loyalty could be the Targaryens were responsible for the Tyrell-Redwyne union as compensation for the broken promise of marriage.

The Redwynes are a Reach house, not a Stormlands house. Their overlords are the Tyrells.

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So happy to see this discussion kept going!

I'm also glad that someone included GRRM's info about her age. If we use 300 AL as a present baseline, and say she's 65 (right in the middle), that puts her birth at ~235, probably only a few years younger than Duncan and in her early-to-mid-20s at the time of Summerhall in 259, meaning she would've been in the prime age for a suit in the early-to-mid-250s. I think this effectively shuts down the age obstacle question. It also drastically narrows down her possible suitors; Aerion and his son are almost certainly out of the equation now. There weren't that many Targaryens available, given that Aegon V became king when he was bottom of the barrel. She obviously didn't marry Jaehaerys II, so barring some as-yet-unknown cousin, it seems like it either has to be Duncan or the unnnamed third son.

Here's an idea: She was slated to marry Duncan and Duncan broke the suit, and she was instead offered the third son and that is the Targaryen marriage she turned down. So she's technically telling the truth, just only part of it. :D

And of course GRRM's teasing about her suit suggests that there's more to it than what we've learned so far.

The Redwynes are a Reach house, not a Stormlands house. Their overlords are the Tyrells.

Totally fitting with both her character and George's :-)

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Here's an idea: She was slated to marry Duncan and Duncan broke the suit, and she was instead offered the third son and that is the Targaryen marriage she turned down. So she's technically telling the truth, just only part of it. :D

And of course GRRM's teasing about her suit suggests that there's more to it than what we've learned so far.

We know Egg's third son married for love as well, much to the chagrin of Egg. I don't see mystery son number 3 being the only brother prepared to marry, who he was told, then suddenly changing his mind. Seems a bit odd. If he was prepared to marry Olenna, why not marry someone else his father picked out?

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We know Egg's third son married for love as well, much to the chagrin of Egg. I don't see mystery son number 3 being the only brother prepared to marry, who he was told, then suddenly changing his mind. Seems a bit odd. If he was prepared to marry Olenna, why not marry someone else his father picked out?

The two aren't mutually exclusive. He might have gone on to marry for love after the Olenna thing fell through, if that's what happened.

Given her age, and I cannot stress this enough, there are not that many possibilities. Baelor Breakspear's line is completely defunct from the Great Spring Sickness. Aerys I died childless. Rhaegal had twin sons about whom nothing is known, but Maekar inherited the throne over them, which suggests they were either dead or otherwise incapacitated long before Aegon V became king. Of Maekar's kids, Aerion's out and so is his son, in all likelihood. Aemon's a maester and Daeron only had a daughter. Unless you back way up and look at Martell cousins or Elaena's kids (neither of whom would be, strictly speaking, Targaryens) it almost has to be either Duncan or the third son. Whether she was jilted and lying or telling the truth.

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I'm also glad that someone included GRRM's info about her age. If we use 300 AL as a present baseline, and say she's 65 (right in the middle), that puts her birth at ~235, probably only a few years younger than Duncan and in her early-to-mid-20s at the time of Summerhall in 259, meaning she would've been in the prime age for a suit in the early-to-mid-250s.

So I was doing some looking around the information we have about other members of the Targaryen family to get a better fix on just when Aegon V started having children and it seems that information points to a larger age gap between Duncan and Olenna than what you're proposing.

Aerys II's birth year is listed as 243 AL, so that would put Jaehaerys II's birth somewhere in the early 220s. Duncan had to be born at least the better part of a year before that, so Duncan's latest birthday would be around 222. That would be a minimum of an 8-13 year gap between him and Olenna Redwyne. Duncan would've come to manhood around the late 230s, when Olenna would still be a young child, making her unlikely to be in the pool of possible matches for Duncan.

That makes it seem much more likely that Olenna would've been a potential match for Aegon's third son rather than the older two. Given that Jaehaerys was married and fathering children of his own in 243 and the first known birthdate of any of Olenna's children comes about 13 years later, he would not have likely been a candidate either.

She obviously didn't marry Jaehaerys II, so barring some as-yet-unknown cousin, it seems like it either has to be Duncan or the unnnamed third son.

Based on the information above, it appears increasingly unlikely that Duncan was a contender. Aegon's third child remains the most believable Targaryen for this scenario and nearly nothing is known about him.

Here's an idea: She was slated to marry Duncan and Duncan broke the suit, and she was instead offered the third son and that is the Targaryen marriage she turned down. So she's technically telling the truth, just only part of it. :D

Perhaps, but the likelihood of Duncan being offered as a match for her is quite low. He'd be in the marriage market around a good decade before Olenna was available. With the massive contraction in the Targaryen line during Aegon's lifetime, I don't think he would've been likely to wait on much younger women coming of age when he knew he had a line that needed securing.

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The two aren't mutually exclusive. He might have gone on to marry for love after the Olenna thing fell through, if that's what happened.

Given her age, and I cannot stress this enough, there are not that many possibilities. Baelor Breakspear's line is completely defunct from the Great Spring Sickness. Aerys I died childless. Rhaegal had twin sons about whom nothing is known, but Maekar inherited the throne over them, which suggests they were either dead or otherwise incapacitated long before Aegon V became king. Of Maekar's kids, Aerion's out and so is his son, in all likelihood. Aemon's a maester and Daeron only had a daughter. Unless you back way up and look at Martell cousins or Elaena's kids (neither of whom would be, strictly speaking, Targaryens) it almost has to be either Duncan or the third son. Whether she was jilted and lying or telling the truth.

No I agree that it was probably one of Duncans boys, but what I was objecting to was the Third Son agreeing to an arranged marriage and then suddenly changing his mind. Aegon married for love, his two older brothers married for love and I just cannot see why the Third Son would accept an arranged marriage then change his mind. All of his immediate family had done what they wanted, we know he eventually did the same, so why would he accept one for a short period of time? If anyone was likely to accept an arranged marriage it would be Duncan.

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No I agree that it was probably one of Duncans boys, but what I was objecting to was the Third Son agreeing to an arranged marriage and then suddenly changing his mind. Aegon married for love, his two older brothers married for love and I just cannot see why the Third Son would accept an arranged marriage then change his mind. All of his immediate family had done what they wanted, we know he eventually did the same, so why would he accept one for a short period of time? If anyone was likely to accept an arranged marriage it would be Duncan.

... I'm saying he might have accepted it and then changed his mind when it felt through.

I still think Duncan makes the most intuitive sense, but at this point I do think it's between him and the third son. I just think much more is explained in terms of motivations and outcomes if it's Duncan. But if it's not Duncan, then by process of elimination it almost has to be the third son.

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I still think Duncan makes the most intuitive sense, but at this point I do think it's between him and the third son. I just think much more is explained in terms of motivations and outcomes if it's Duncan. But if it's not Duncan, then by process of elimination it almost has to be the third son.

I think it does too. Olenna could have been born in the 20's and therefore not actually much younger.

Besides, in a series with Jon Arryn + Lysa, Walder Frey + wife # 35 and Lady Ermestade + "Wet Nurse" I fail to see why this would be a detraction from your theory.

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I think it does too. Olenna could have been born in the 20's and therefore not actually much younger.

Besides, in a series with Jon Arryn + Lysa, Walder Frey + wife # 35 and Lady Ermestade + "Wet Nurse" I fail to see why this would be a detraction from your theory.

Plus, she may not have been the first choice - there might have been an earlier arrangement but the girl died, such things happen.

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I think it does too. Olenna could have been born in the 20's and therefore not actually much younger.

Besides, in a series with Jon Arryn + Lysa, Walder Frey + wife # 35 and Lady Ermestade + "Wet Nurse" I fail to see why this would be a detraction from your theory.

With Martin's information placing Olenna in her 60s, the earliest she could have been born would've been 230, meaning a minimum of around an 8 year gap and quite possibly more. Duncan would have been one of the most eligible bachelors in the realm when he came of age to marry, his father newly raised to the throne. There doesn't seem to be any overwhelming incentive for Aegon to wait for the maturation of a much younger girl while his son passed through the prime of his young life. Most Targaryens married fairly young, which would've seen Duncan married around the early 240s.

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Excellent timeline work, everyone! I'm pretty much sold now. I think we have sufficient evidence in the books that it's not implausible for a male to marry for the first time at an older age (Edmure), have an older male wait for his betrothed to grow up (Beric) or even have betrothals made without a marriage date finalized (Joffrey/Sansa, Robb/Frey, Cat/Brandon- which might have also been a case of groom waiting for bride to grow up).

I can see how it's possible it was the third son, but I think it makes more narrative sense for the original betrothal to have been the first son.

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I think it does too. Olenna could have been born in the 20's and therefore not actually much younger.

Besides, in a series with Jon Arryn + Lysa, Walder Frey + wife # 35 and Lady Ermestade + "Wet Nurse" I fail to see why this would be a detraction from your theory.

Yeah, I think it actually works more if Olenna is quite a bit younger than Duncan. If she has some growing up to do, he's contractually obligated to her without them being able to marry yet, explaining why he didn't marry any younger than he did (see also Beric and Allyria Dayne, I believe, and Alys Karstark and Daryn Hornwood) and how he could have fallen in love with someone else in the interim.

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297 - 69 years old = 228 AL.

Most of Storm of Swords takes place in 299 AL, making 230 about the earliest she could have been born. A younger Olenna does absolutely nothing to increase the likelihood of her possible betrothal being to Duncan. Getting them closer in age would increase the chances, not further apart.

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