Lies and Arbor Gold: Well Look What We Found

[nirolo]

So you're saying it didn't have to start in the first book to be legitimate, but then you turn around and say that it'd be more legitimate if it started "pretty early on." Can you explain how this isn't a complete contradiction of yourself?

Starting early on might be sufficient to make it legitimate, but that doesn't mean it is necessary. Not contradictory.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I've provided several examples of other phrases that follow similar usage patterns in Martin's writing as an example of how a phrase can experience a spike in usage by an author without necessarily being imbued with tremendous significance. Martin is a writer who passes through phases of word usage, which is expected for someone writing a series over a long period of time. You can see where some concepts enter his usage, are developed, peak, and then appear to fall off as he moves on to others.

So I take it that you're able to find thematic links between GRRM's other oft-used phrases similar to the ones we've found with Arbor Gold, right? To show that it doesn't mean anything.

Starting early on might be sufficient to make it legitimate, but that doesn't mean it is necessary. Not contradictory.

"It doesn't have to be in the first book to be legit, but because it's not in the first book I don't think it's legit."

[Sevumar]

So I take it that you're able to find thematic links between GRRM's other oft-used phrases similar to the ones we've found with Arbor Gold, right? To show that it doesn't mean anything.

You're the one with the burden of proving the significance of your idea beyond the usual expectation that Arbor gold would commonly appear in settings/scenes associated with high nobility or wealthy people.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I´m sure that Martin uses Arbor Gold as a symbol for sweetening the bait, but I would be carefull to draw any general conclusions regarding the Redwynes from this.

Funny though how the wine isn't mentioned at all until the Redwynes show up in.

Storm, Catelyn.

Not specifically Arbor Gold.

In Dance Tyrion constantly compares the wine he´s served to piss and states that it´s not Arbor Gold. I wonder wether there is a similar symbolism to the Hippocras, Cersei makes a habit of drinking in Feast? Arbor Gold lacks the tannic acids compared to red wine, while Hippocras is sweetened and spiced red wine.

I think this could tie into Bumps's point that Arbor Gold can also represent self-deception, too.

You're the one with the burden of proving the significance of your idea beyond the usual expectation that Arbor gold would commonly appear in settings/scenes associated with high nobility or wealthy people.

But it's not just that it appears with "high nobility or wealthy people." It appears in such scene where lying and deception are taking place. Hence the laundry list of thematic examples in the OP that it appears you may have missed. Our idea is that Arbor Gold is linked to scenes and acts of deception, and we provided several anecdotes — which make up the majority of times the stuff is mentioned AT ALL — so what more do you want? I could see if there were dozens of non-deceptive appearances of the stuff. But there aren't.

[nirolo]

"It doesn't have to be in the first book to be legit, but because it's not in the first book I don't think it's legit."

"I didn't say it had to start in the first book to be legitimate, just that a presence throughout the entire series lends a bit more weight to something."

Btw, I like this new method of debate. Let's just throw quotes at each other.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

"I didn't say it had to start in the first book to be legitimate, just that a presence throughout the entire series lends a bit more weight to something."

Btw, I like this new method of debate. Let's just throw quotes at each other.

... The implication being that to her if it's not in the first book it's not worth consideration. Do I need to draw this in crayon?

[nirolo]

... The implication being that to her if it's not in the first book it's not worth consideration. Do I need to draw this in crayon?

Meh. You like to draw things in crayon too much (or at least you offer to do so too often).

What is that fine stuff Tyrion offered to Janos before he shipped him to the NW?

[butterbumps!]

Apple-- I think there needs to be 2 parts to the "proof" of this.

For the first, I think my post explaining the breakdown of the 20 mentions of the wine and how 18/20 point to deception shows the consistency of this variable to augment the OP.

But as a second part, showing a "control" seems like it would help show why Arbor Gold is so specific. Is there an efficient way to go through the books to figure out whether duplicity is the context of all wine mentions? I started looking through this, and wine is mentioned too many times to list. Usually wine (non-Arbor association) is shown in the context of oblivion/ sloppiness/ self danger/ calming nerves/ communion.

Meh. You like to draw things in crayon too much (or at least you offer to do so too often).

What is that fine stuff Tyrion offered to Janos before he shipped him to the NW?

Dornish Red. Though "Arbor Gold" was not introduced until aSoS.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Meh. You like to draw things in crayon too much (or at least you offer to do so too often).

That says more about the people to whom I'm replying, I think. Crayon seems to be the best way to get points across.

What is that fine stuff Tyrion offered to Janos before he shipped him to the NW?

Dornish.

[Dr. Pepper]

I like where this is going. It's been too long since I read a pondering genuinely interesting on the forum. The question is, does it have any predictive value?

Not really any that I can see. A lot of it is in hindsight. The only time this is explained to us is via Littlefinger. Sansa gets it. When she's pouring the Arbor Gold for Nestor Royce, she focuses on the Arbor Gold. It's italicized by the author. That's how she knows to figure out there was deception at the meeting.

But even the bit about fAegon wouldn't hold predictive value. Now that we see that Arbor Gold has been used as a literary device to indicate some sort of deception - even self-deception - we are more likely to notice when there is deceiving going on. That is, if GRRM decides to continue to use it. He brought it in in book 3, it's already served a purpose, he may decide that it's no longer needed. It maybe have been part of the thematic evidence he was building up for Aegon's appearance.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Apple-- I think there needs to be 2 parts to the "proof" of this.

For the first, I think my post explaining the breakdown of the 20 mentions of the wine and how 18/20 point to deception shows the consistency of this variable to augment the OP.

But as a second part, showing a "control" seems like it would help show why Arbor Gold is so specific. Is there an efficient way to go through the books to figure out whether duplicity is the context of all wine mentions? I started looking through this, and wine is mentioned too many times to list. Usually wine (non-Arbor association) is shown in the context of oblivion/ sloppiness/ self danger/ calming nerves/ communion.

The last part would take forever. But if 18 out of 20 mentions of the stuff isn't good enough then people aren't interested in giving it a fair shake.

Not really any that I can see. A lot of it is in hindsight. The only time this is explained to us is via Littlefinger. Sansa gets it. When she's pouring the Arbor Gold for Nestor Royce, she focuses on the Arbor Gold. It's italicized by the author. That's how she knows to figure out there was deception at the meeting.

But even the bit about fAegon wouldn't hold predictive value. Now that we see that Arbor Gold has been used as a literary device to indicate some sort of deception - even self-deception - we are more likely to notice when there is deceiving going on. That is, if GRRM decides to continue to use it. He brought it in in book 3, it's already served a purpose, he may decide that it's no longer needed. It maybe have been part of the thematic evidence he was building up for Aegon's appearance.

^ Also what I'd say. As of now it's beneficial mostly in hindsight, but with two books left, it might be something where your ears can perk up if you do see it mentioned again.

[Quincunx]

Actually I think if anything the problem is less that rich people always have Arbor Gold and more that so many scenes have some kind of deception or another.

Although Catelyn interrogating drunk Jaime in captivity is a truthy kind of scene, and in that scene the wine is red. "A trickle ran down his face, bright as blood."

[Sevumar]

But it's not just that it appears with "high nobility or wealthy people." It appears in such scene where lying and deception are taking place. Hence the laundry list of thematic examples in the OP that it appears you may have missed. Our idea is that Arbor Gold is linked to scenes and acts of deception, and we provided several anecdotes — which make up the majority of times the stuff is mentioned AT ALL — so what more do you want? I could see if there were dozens of non-deceptive appearances of the stuff. But there aren't.

But the idea of the Game of Thrones is that deception is intimately intertwined with the behavior and plotting of the highborn of Westeros as well. In a way, the question is similar to the classic statistics example of whether ice cream sales explain a rise in crime during summer. Both ice cream sales and crime go up during the summer months, but what (if any) is the association between them?

Deception and Arbor gold are things frequently associated with the nobility of Westeros. Does the fact that both are sometimes found in combination mean that one illuminates or explains the other, or does it mean that the close association of both with nobility can explain?

That's the challenge here. It's an interesting idea and I think it's useful to consider a couple of questions:

• One, raised by another poster is, "Does it have predictive value?"
  
• Another is the one posed above, "Is it significant?"
  
• A third is the most relevant one, "It's an interesting idea, but is it Martin's idea?"
  

At this point, I don't see enough evidence to move it from the realm of interesting observation into an idea with explanatory power.

[FuriousGeorge]

Not really any that I can see. A lot of it is in hindsight. The only time this is explained to us is via Littlefinger. Sansa gets it. When she's pouring the Arbor Gold for Nestor Royce, she focuses on the Arbor Gold. It's italicized by the author. That's how she knows to figure out there was deception at the meeting.

But even the bit about fAegon wouldn't hold predictive value. Now that we see that Arbor Gold has been used as a literary device to indicate some sort of deception - even self-deception - we are more likely to notice when there is deceiving going on. That is, if GRRM decides to continue to use it. He brought it in in book 3, it's already served a purpose, he may decide that it's no longer needed. It maybe have been part of the thematic evidence he was building up for Aegon's appearance.

I agree with what you are saying and think its very unlikely, verging on impossible, that arbor gold could be so intricately and consistently linked with deception for it to just be a coincidence, but you can't say that the characters in the text are motivated by the symbolism that GRRM uses. If Sansa knew to look for deception because arbor gold was present then smarter people than her would have also worked it out and LF wouldn't get away with so much.

[Lykos]

Apple Martini, I gave the quote from the RW not because Arbor Gold was specifically mentioned, but to lend credit to the following connection made to piss and to show what I meant with sweetened bait.

Red wines from the Arbor are already mentioned in Game. I think that strengthens your point. For one, as DR. Pepper just said Martin introduced the device for a specific reason. For another one could deduce that Arbor Gold is made from red grapes, since they also make red wines and the House is called Redwyne, which means the wine doesn´t show it´s true colour. You make white wine from red grapes with white flesh (Burgundy for example) by clearing the must.

Edit, I didn´t want to whine.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Dornish Red. Though "Arbor Gold" was not introduced until aSoS.

You can almost expand this to mean Arbor wine in a broader sense. Janos is trying to convince Tyrion's he's a good Lannister man and asks if the wine is from the Arbor. Nope, it's Dornish — Tyrion sees through the deception.

Likewise, Dany's assassin offers her Dornish wine before offering her poisoned Arbor wine. Real wine is replaced with a deception. (If you wanna get really meta, half-Dornish Aegon gets replaced with a deceptive Blackfyre, but that's reaching.)

Ned and Robert also have Arbor wine when Ned's resting from his Jaime injury — and he lies and tells Robert that Catelyn took Tyrion at his command.

Dr. Pepper's actually looking for earlier Arbor mentions now, but if we can broaden the scope a little — perhaps not just Arbor Gold but Arbor wine in general — that might go a way toward convincing those who'd like earlier examples. (Not really because their minds are already made up, but you know.)

ETA: DP also points out that Ned/Robert and Dany and the would-be poisoner are the only two instances in the first book where the Arbor/its wine is mentioned. People were asking for exclusivity? There you go.

<snip>

And maybe if you ever come up with an original idea on your own I can shred it too. It's easier to tear someone else down than it is to come up with your own ideas, even if they're not correct. I'd rather come up with my own theories that are nuanced but wrong than spend most of my time pissing in other people's chips.

[nirolo]

Actually I think if anything the problem is less that rich people always have Arbor Gold and more that so many scenes have some kind of deception or another.

Although Catelyn interrogating drunk Jaime in captivity is a truthy kind of scene, and in that scene the wine is red. "A trickle ran down his face, bright as blood."

Yep. Wine is indeed used as a truth serum in the world of Westeros.

Though perhaps finer wine means higher stakes. Who knows.

But I do think you guys are onto something here, and I think butterbumps! has the truth of it. It would strengthen your argument if you guys could show that Arbor Gold is associated exclusively with certain types of situation.

[Dr. Pepper]

Well, looks like we have Arbor wine mentioned in the first book. It's unknown if this wine was white or red.

First mention is with Ned and Robert, while Ned was recovering from Jaime's attack.

“No matter,” the king said gruffly. “Some wine? From the Arbor. A good vintage.”

Ned accepts, then tells Robert that Catelyn took Tyrion on his command. We know this is a lie.

ninja'd

[FuriousGeorge]

But the idea of the Game of Thrones is that deception is intimately intertwined with the behavior and plotting of the highborn of Westeros as well. In a way, the question is similar to the classic statistics example of whether ice cream sales explain a rise in crime during summer. Both ice cream sales and crime go up during the summer months, but what (if any) is the association between them?

Deception and Arbor gold are things frequently associated with the nobility of Westeros. Does the fact that both are sometimes found in combination mean that one illuminates or explains the other, or does it mean that the close association of both with nobility can explain?

That's the challenge here. It's an interesting idea and I think it's useful to consider a couple of questions:

• One, raised by another poster is, "Does it have predictive value?"
  
• Another is the one posed above, "Is it significant?"
  
• A third is the most relevant one, "It's an interesting idea, but is it Martin's idea?"
  

At this point, I don't see enough evidence to move it from the realm of interesting observation into an idea with explanatory power.

So you agree that deception and arbor gold are bound up and associated with images of nobility in Westeros but you disagree that they can be seen as textual markers? That is how symbolism works isn't it?

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

But I do think you guys are onto something here, and I think butterbumps! has the truth of it. It would strengthen your argument if you guys could show that Arbor Gold is associated exclusively with certain types of situation.

Is 18/20 not good enough?