Asha Wrote the Bastard Letter (Theon I, TWOW Spoilers)

[Gekke Henkie]

Asha barely knows Jon, and even if Jon were to come down to kill Ramsay, what good would it do her? What reason does Jon have and what right does Jon have to ask Stannis to let Theon go? I agree that Asha clearly wants Theon to do the Torgon, but this is pretty ridiculous way of completing your objectives.

Basically Asha's saying to Theon; "Hey, you know those 2 little kids you killed? How about we get their big brother over here by pretending to be the guy that tortured you and cut off your dick, and telling him we've killed everybody, and when it turns out most of the letter was a lie, the NW will command king Stannis to let us go. Let's tell Stannis to cut off your head at a weirwood tree though, Jon doesn't know where Stannis' army is, so my best guess is that he'll just come racing from CB to the weirwood tree closest to Stannis' army."

I know the OP is blaming desperation for this plan, but she doesn't seem all that scared and/or desperate talking to Stannis, and you'd have to be pretty fucking desperate to think this will work. If it was to enrage 'everyone at the wall', how could Asha know Jon would read the letter aloud? It's a very very long shot.

More likely that Asha has an few ragtag Ironborn out by the weirwood tree or something else that's a little less complex than this theory.

[CerseisPimp]

I just don't see Mance getting captured the day Theon / Jeyne escaped. He sets this plan in motion, knows exactly when and how it will go off, knows his spearwives will be missing and then just sits around hoping Ramsay / Roose, two psychopaths, might just assume he knows nothing about it?

Everybody talks about how smart Roose is. But Mance is no fool either. I don't see him sitting around scratching his junk the night the heist goes down and just hoping Ramsay doesnt suspect he knows anything about it when HIS washerwoman steal the bride of Ramsay. Mance took off or hid in the crypts the night the heist went down. Mance is a survivor and a proven ranger.

With that said, I am not certain who wrote the letter (but LOVE the gossip on this forum) but I am certain Mance is not Ramsay's plaything, or that Ramsay wrote the letter. Mance is smart enough.

I don't doubt Mance is a wily sombitch, but GRRM has absolutely no problem leaving you in the dark about something and then coming back to explain it later. I just think his desertion from the NW has doomed him.

I don't beleive the fact that Mance's name being the only one spelled out in the letter signifies anything either. If the wording would have been something like, "I also have your King Beyond the Wall you told everyone you burned," would people not figure it out?

[A Man Has Said]

Having read your exposition and the bulk of the objections to it, I believe your theory to be better than just plausible - while less than a slam dunk, it is at least as likely to be true as any alternative.

To begin with, we know from Theon I that the letter contains quite a few lies about the situation in and around WF. So not much of the text of the letter can be used to prove anything one way or another, except to demonstrate that the author is a liar.

I personally think Stannis is ruled out. This kind of deception just doesn't fit his personality at all. Besides, what motive do you give him and how do you imagine that he got all the 'inside WF' information that's contained in the letter?

I don't think it's Roose or Ramsay either. How do you explain the lack of the Bolton seal?

It had to have been someone travelling with Stannis. He had ravens with him that were brought from the Wall and trained to return to the Wall. I don't think the Boltons did, unless they'd somehow gotten lucky and captured one of the Stark ravens still living in the branches of the Godswood Heart Tree.

Good job on your theory Slayer of Lies.

[CerseisPimp]

Having read your exposition and the bulk of the objections to it, I believe your theory to be better than just plausible - while less than a slam dunk, it is at least as likely to be true as any alternative.

To begin with, we know from Theon I that the letter contains quite a few lies about the situation in and around WF. So not much of the text of the letter can be used to prove anything one way or another, except to demonstrate that the author is a liar.

I personally think Stannis is ruled out. This kind of deception just doesn't fit his personality at all. Besides, what motive do you give him and how do you imagine that he got all the 'inside WF' information that's contained in the letter?

I don't think it's Roose or Ramsay either. How do you explain the lack of the Bolton seal?

It had to have been someone travelling with Stannis. He had ravens with him that were brought from the Wall and trained to return to the Wall. I don't think the Boltons did, unless they'd somehow gotten lucky and captured one of the Stark ravens still living in the branches of the Godswood Heart Tree.

Good job on your theory Slayer of Lies.

What lies? Are you referring to the sample chapter with Theon and Stannis in the TWOW? I think that is a slight step back in time just to explain the events right before the battle and the letter. Cause for one, as a reader if he let the battle play out and simply not tell us about it, I would be pissed.

As for the seal of the Boltons not being on it, Commanders have used mud to seal parchments in battle, right after a battle, and so forth.

[The Real Summer Islander]

As theories go, this isn't nearly as crackpot as some, but I must point out that you constrain events to only three possibilities. The hypothesis I believe most likely is that Ramsay wrote this letter believing everything was true, but he has been deceived. What if Stannis had won the battle on the frozen lake and either sent a raven to Bolton telling him what he wanted to hear or even feigned defeat and was brought to Winterfell, along with his southern remnants, disguised as Frey soldiers by the manderlys? Could such a possibility affect your theory?

This... The entire argument is really constrained to three theories. Some of the other ones, like ramsey being deceived and boisterous, and the mance and the north theories are much better, and stannis and mance have much more to gain from the letter than asha.

[mbuehner]

"Lonely days are gone, im'a comin home. The Bastard, wrote me a letter"

[Slayer of Lies]

As theories go, this isn't nearly as crackpot as some, but I must point out that you constrain events to only three possibilities.

I feel like - at a high level - what I called out are the only three logical/mathematical possibilities. For added clarity, if it helps:

1) Ramsay wrote the Letter and the events are all true (with or without help, pending confirmation)

2) Ramsay wrote the Letter and it contains falsehoods or misinformation (with or without help, pending confirmation)

3) There's an alternate author (which could be Jinglebell, for all we know, but I'd collected some citations to elevate Asha's candidacy and "take a poll")

The hypothesis I believe most likely is that Ramsay wrote this letter believing everything was true, but he has been deceived.

Fair enough, and that falls under #2 IMO. Many other ADWD/TWOW forum users have read or posted ideas to that extent as well, and I enjoy reading those as well!

What if Stannis had won the battle on the frozen lake and either sent a raven to Bolton telling him what he wanted to hear or even feigned defeat and was brought to Winterfell, along with his southern remnants, disguised as Frey soldiers by the manderlys? Could such a possibility affect your theory?

Because we don't have confirmation of this yet, this also falls under #2, which is that Ramsay wrote the Letter with misinformation. Like I said, love reading those posts too!

Of course, inside what I'm calling "the only three logical possibilities," there are nearly infinite "sub-possibilities." At the highest level, though, if you have your mind set on a particular scenario, all I'm saying is that it can likely be filed under one of those general categories: (1) Ramsay truth, (2) Ramsay lies/misinfo, (3) alternate author.

And while the alternate author cast is likely quite limited, I mainly started this thread to collect opinions from people outside of my personal "Social Circle of Thrones" to see how many people thought it was plausible.

As expected - and as with most "theories" - there are people who buy Asha's plausibility as the author, people who don't at all, and people who are in between.

Personally, I'm enjoying reading all the opinions, and am also interested in reading quotes/citations that support your ideas!

[LilJonUmber]

Because Theon told Asha about the importance of Reek, as mentioned (bolded) in the initial post.

Your theory is very well-written, and you did an impressive job of connecting the dots. Asha clearly has the requisite information to construct the Pink Letter, and she's very much in desperation mode. Still, I'm not completely sold on the motive and the logistics; particularly her accessibility to the items needed to craft and send the R-mail.

But hey, it's as well-supported a theory as any, and I surely don't have enough evidence to refute it.

Who knows? It'll probably be something out of left-field like Melisandre...

[Salt and Smoke]

Anybody else think the show hints that Ramsay wrote the letter, but is a lying POS and the letter is bogus? Episode 6 of this season...Ramsay: "You forgot to ask if I'm a liar! I'm afraid I am." I believe some lines in the show, especially this season, are likely allusions to future material, in the same way as the Melisandre/Arya "brown eyes, blue eyes, green eyes" scene from the same episode.

[mrlukeduke]

Did anyone consider that Ramsay didn't stamp the pink letter's seal because he "lost" his father's Dreadfort ring? I suppose a counter argument would be that he could have had one made, perhaps just a cheap stamp made out of wood, if there were a carpenter around.

[mrlukeduke]

Also that letter writing is incredibly hard in –30C or worse conditions! Ink apparently freezes at around 32F (0C). Hence... flaking? Also Ramsay sucks at writing as he wasn't educated from birth, and he also gives two shits about etiquette and formalities (unless where it suits his purpose).

[brut]

Certainly appreciate where OP is leading with this, and seems Asha could be a probable author of the letter, or at least should be considered as such along with other hypothesized pen-pals. Still, my personal preference would perch closer to Mance as he clearly faces the danger of losing freefolk to Jon and remains motivated to lead them this side of the Wall, for which purpose he cleverly taunts Jon away from the NW habitat.

[Lord Varys]

It is quite unlikely that any other than Ramsay did write the Pink Letter since it has obviously been written in the same handwriting as the previous letter from Ramsay Jon received. The 'huge spiky hand' is not mentioned in the last Jon chapter, I know, but Jon would have immediately considered the letter a forgery had he not been written in the same handwriting.

True, Asha did receive a letter from Ramsay as well, but we cannot reasonably assume that she can mimic his handwriting since she has burned her letter from the Dreadfort months ago at Deepwood Motte.

In the end, the letter sounds like he was written by Ramsay. This does not mean that any or most of the stuff Ramsay tells Jon is true, but I honestly don't see a reason for anyone but Roose/Ramsay to write this letter. It's purpose is either to cause havoc at the Wall and neutralize Jon and the wildlings as threats, or a rather hopeless gamble to gain hostages to use against Stannis (Selyse/Shireen and Melisandre). Neither Stannis nor Asha nor anyone else has a reason to write such a letter to Jon.

We can also not deduce from the Pink Letter that Roose may be dead or incapacitated since Roose had Ramsay write letters to Asha and Jon before. The Pink Letter falls in the same category as the earier letter(s).

[three-eyed monkey]

Lord Varys, Asha didn't burn the letter, she burned the piece of flayed skin that came with it, the 'piece of prince'.

The letter Jon recieved had no piece of skin enclosed. It did not have the other signatures at the end. And it was sealed with a smear, not a button, of pink wax. For these reasons alone I do not believe Ramsay wrote the letter. Add to that the fact that if Ramsay had defeated Stannis in seven days of battle, however unlikely it would last that long in the conditions, then he would have his reek and his bride back, dead or alive. I also just can't see the benefit for Ramsay in writing a letter to antagonise Jon while at the same time giving away the fact that he no longer has 'Arya'.

Stannis on the other hand, has everything he needs to write the letter, including motivation. I don't buy that he's too honourable to forge a letter, not after Renly. A lot of people disagree with that, but let's just imagine for a minute that in the desperate situation he finds himself in he is willing to forge a letter and lie to save his chances of getting the throne that is rightfully his. Consider this:

1. Asha had let the maester take Ramsay's letter from Barrowtown to Lady Glover just before Stannis took Deepwood Motte so it is very plausible that the letter came into Stannis' possession. That makes him the one with the template, not Asha who only has what she can remember of a letter that she had little interest in.

2. If he has the letter then he has pink wax to melt down. Of course he might lose some in the transfer and not have enough to make a button, but he has enough for a smear at least.

3. He has ravens trained for the wall, he took them with him and has already sent a letter to Jon since leaving the wall.

4. He needs to bring Jon into the fight but knows Jon will not involve himself easily. He already offered him Winterfell and Jon refused, so asking politely isn't going to do it. He needs to bait him, antagonise him, and the wildlings too. He even lets Jon know that 'Arya' is no longer a hostage at Winerfell, so he need not worry about her safety.

5. He warns Massey that he may hear rumours that he is dead, but commands him to get the sellswords anyway. This is just in case the news makes its way across the narrow sea by way of castle black and eastwatch-by-the-sea.

6. He repeats things that Theon said to him, 'I want my bride back. And I want my Reek,' almost verbatim. To lend some authenticity I imagine.

7. He refers to Val as a princess and the wildling babe as a prince, and not for the first time. Jon tells him Val is no princess on a number of occassions but Stannis does it anyway, and he does it again in the letter. 'I want his wildling princess. I want his little prince, the wildling babe.' Why would Ramsay even consider them a prince and princess? To him they'd just be a couple of wildlings. Even the wildlings don't consider them prince and princess, only Stannis does.

I think Stannis wrote the letter with the purpose of bringing Jon and his wildling horde down on Winterfell. And that's why, Op, I just can't see why Asha would or how she could.

[The Human Abstract]

It is quite unlikely that any other than Ramsay did write the Pink Letter since it has obviously been written in the same handwriting as the previous letter from Ramsay Jon received. The 'huge spiky hand' is not mentioned in the last Jon chapter, I know, but Jon would have immediately considered the letter a forgery had he not been written in the same handwriting.

True, Asha did receive a letter from Ramsay as well, but we cannot reasonably assume that she can mimic his handwriting since she has burned her letter from the Dreadfort months ago at Deepwood Motte.

In the end, the letter sounds like he was written by Ramsay. This does not mean that any or most of the stuff Ramsay tells Jon is true, but I honestly don't see a reason for anyone but Roose/Ramsay to write this letter. It's purpose is either to cause havoc at the Wall and neutralize Jon and the wildlings as threats, or a rather hopeless gamble to gain hostages to use against Stannis (Selyse/Shireen and Melisandre). Neither Stannis nor Asha nor anyone else has a reason to write such a letter to Jon.

We can also not deduce from the Pink Letter that Roose may be dead or incapacitated since Roose had Ramsay write letters to Asha and Jon before. The Pink Letter falls in the same category as the earier letter(s).

I agree that Ramsay seems easily the most likely candidate. And there are other reasons to believe it is authentically him (such as the one I gave above).

I enjoyed the work with the Asha theory but it seems way less reasonable to me.

[Slayer of Lies]

Thanks for the notes, three-eyed monkey! What a complex web we weave...

1. Asha had let the maester take Ramsay's letter from Barrowtown to Lady Glover just before Stannis took Deepwood Motte so it is very plausible that the letter came into Stannis' possession. That makes him the one with the template, not Asha who only has what she can remember of a letter that she had little interest in.

2. If he has the letter then he has pink wax to melt down. Of course he might lose some in the transfer and not have enough to make a button, but he has enough for a smear at least.

3. He has ravens trained for the wall, he took them with him and has already sent a letter to Jon since leaving the wall.

For this argument, consider that anything Stannis has access to, so does Asha, in that all she needs is a moment of freedom to execute the same task(s).

4. He needs to bring Jon into the fight but knows Jon will not involve himself easily. He already offered him Winterfell and Jon refused, so asking politely isn't going to do it. He needs to bait him, antagonise him, and the wildlings too. He even lets Jon know that 'Arya' is no longer a hostage at Winerfell, so he need not worry about her safety.

Similarly, because Stannis will break before he bends, this is basically why I propose Asha as an alternate candidate.

5. He warns Massey that he may hear rumours that he is dead, but commands him to get the sellswords anyway. This is just in case the news makes its way across the narrow sea by way of castle black and eastwatch-by-the-sea.

As I proposed, since he's heading into battle, he may have legitimate reason to believe he's going to die, which means another possibility is that this could simply be GRRM toying with the reader.

6. He repeats things that Theon said to him, 'I want my bride back. And I want my Reek,' almost verbatim. To lend some authenticity I imagine.

Does he? Feel free to provide the citation if I'm overlooking something, although I think it stands to reason that he would be able to repeat things that Theon said to him. To that end, I'd also love to see where Theon tells Stannis about Mance (as opposed to Asha, which occurs in Theon I). ;)

FWIW, the below sample is one of the reasons I have an issue with Stannis' "character consistency". It's Theon that says "Reek" and "his bride":

"The north remembers. The Red Wedding, Lady Hornwood's fingers, the sack of Winterfell, Deepwood Motte and Torrhen's Square, they remember all of it." Bran and Rickon. They were only miller's boys. "Frey and Manderly will never combine their strengths. They will come for you, but separately. Lord Ramsay will not be far behind them. He wants his bride back. He wants his Reek ." Theon's laugh was half a titter, half a whimper. "Lord Ramsay is the oneYour Grace should fear."

Stannis bristled at that. "I defeated your uncle Victarion and his Iron Fleet off Fair Isle, the first time your father crowned himself. I held Storm's End against the power of the Reach for a year, and took Dragonstone from the Targaryens. I smashed Mance Rayder at the Wall, though he had twenty times my numbers. Tell me, turncloak, what battles has the Bastard of Bolton ever won that I should fear him?"

Additionally, while you're observations are all valid, IMO Stannis is claiming no fear in the above segment, and appears to be indicating that he can take Ramsay on his own (knowing that Massey's troups will not arrive in time for the battle for WF).

7. He refers to Val as a princess and the wildling babe as a prince, and not for the first time. Jon tells him Val is no princess on a number of occassions but Stannis does it anyway, and he does it again in the letter. 'I want his wildling princess. I want his little prince, the wildling babe.' Why would Ramsay even consider them a prince and princess? To him they'd just be a couple of wildlings. Even the wildlings don't consider them prince and princess, only Stannis does.

I think Stannis wrote the letter with the purpose of bringing Jon and his wildling horde down on Winterfell. And that's why, Op, I just can't see why Asha would or how she could.

I too wonder why Ramsay would want anything to do with Val... To your point, though, "wildling princess" is certainly not what Mance would call Val. Perhaps under torture, Ramsay says: "What kind of cool nickname can I give Val in my letter?" ;)

But, you're right, "wildling princess" is one of the terms that is frequently used in Stannis' camp.

To that end, from Asha's last chapter in ADWD:

"Stannis had frustrated Ser Justin's hopes of marrying the wildling princess that Asha had heard so much about."

So Asha has "equal awareness" of the "wildling princess," to that point.

In the end, I'm certain to be pleased with GRRM's decision if it's anywhere between Ramsay, Mance, Theon, Asha and/or Stannis, as any of the various angles readers enjoy all need canon confirmation.

But in the interim, it seems to me that Asha's got as many if not more clues as any other candidate.

ETA: Spelling errors.

[three-eyed monkey]

Slayer, I should have said, I enjoyed your theory and the subsequent discussion. To address a few of the points you made:

Asha could gain access to everything Stannis has, if only she could get that moment of freedom. That may or may not prove difficult depending on her luck, but Stannis does not need to be lucky here. He has the freedom to write the letter if he wants to.

And while it is true that Asha hears about the wildling princess, it is not confirmed she knows about the wildling prince, whereas we know Stannis does, and again, is free to write it if he so chooses.

Regarding what Stannis says to Massey, I read it on GRRM's website a while back so sorry but I can't quote it exactly, but I believe he said you might hear rumours of my death. Why use the word 'rumours' if Stannis' only concern is a real death in battle. Happy to stand corrected on that as I don't have the quote.

Sorry, I should have said in my previous post that the letter quotes, almost verbatim, something Theon said to Stannis. You provided the quote above, where Theon says, 'He wants his bride back. He wants his Reek.' The letter just swaps he for I. (I assumptively said Stannis quotes Theon, which is only true if he did write the letter.)

My final thing is motivation. Of all the possible candidates, Mance and Stannis have the best motive for bringing Jon down on Winterfell in force and informing him that 'Arya' is no longer a hostage there, in case that kept him from attacking. I lean towards Stannis because I'm not sure how Mance would determine which raven is trained for castle black in the event of him getting his hands on some pink wax and a raven in Winterfell. And even if he did, why the subterfuge? But that aside, Mance has motive to write the letter, I'm just not so sure Asha does.

[Slayer of Lies]

Slayer, I should have said, I enjoyed your theory and the subsequent discussion.

Thanks! I think all of us enjoy the discussion in general, or none of us would be here. :)

And while it is true that Asha hears about the wildling princess, it is not confirmed she knows about the wildling prince, whereas we know Stannis does, and again, is free to write it if he so chooses.

Herein is the "standoff," right? Using the text alone, once might conclude that Asha may not have heard about the wildling prince, Stannis may not have learned about Mance, the Letter itself is not proof enough that Ramsay authored it, that Mance/Ramsay have no reason to believe that "Arya" and Reek would be sent to the Wall in the first place, etc. It's an intentional mystery on GRRM's part, and if the desired result was to create a discussion, it worked!

Regarding what Stannis says to Massey, I read it on GRRM's website a while back so sorry but I can't quote it exactly, but I believe he said you might hear rumours of my death. Why use the word 'rumours' if Stannis' only concern is a real death in battle. Happy to stand corrected on that as I don't have the quote.

No worries, and the word rumors doesn't appear FWIW.

"It may be that we shall lose this battle," the king said grimly. "In Braavos you may hear that I am dead. It may even be true. You shall find my sellswords nonetheless."

Again, I feel the reader is left to "choose" (until future evidence is provided) whether this means Stannis is aware of the Letter's contents or if he's simply making a "captain obvious" statement.

Sorry, I should have said in my previous post that the letter quotes, almost verbatim, something Theon said to Stannis. You provided the quote above, where Theon says, 'He wants his bride back. He wants his Reek.' The letter just swaps he for I. (I assumptively said Stannis quotes Theon, which is only true if he did write the letter.)

Fair enough, and Asha is equally aware of Reek and "Arya," as indicated in my original post.

My final thing is motivation. Of all the possible candidates, Mance and Stannis have the best motive for bringing Jon down on Winterfell in force and informing him that 'Arya' is no longer a hostage there, in case that kept him from attacking. I lean towards Stannis because I'm not sure how Mance would determine which raven is trained for castle black in the event of him getting his hands on some pink wax and a raven in Winterfell. And even if he did, why the subterfuge? But that aside, Mance has motive to write the letter, I'm just not so sure Asha does.

I provided some motives for Asha in my original post as well, two of which are supported in the text, where the vast majority of the "motives" conversations I've read involving other authors (inclusive of Ramsay and Mance) appear to revolve around extrapolation and speculation, rather than information provided in the text. Also fair, as that's pretty much all we have to go on while we wait...

Meanwhile, my hope when I started out with this endeavor was to find "irrefutable evidence" that it was someone, but the reality is I feel the evidence simply isn't there yet to elevate any of the candidates beyond "current favorite suspect."

In an effort to make as objective/neutral of a statement as possible, Ramsay, Mance, Stannis, Theon and Asha are all "suspects" in my mind. Each one has "gotchas" with what we know at present, and each one needs canon confirmation to put an end to the debate.

Only because it drives me mad not to know who wrote the Letter did I do some digging for text support, and came up with more supporting "textual evidence" for Asha than just about everyone else (which, again, is not to say that I know who did it, but that I wouldn't be surprised if it was her).

As Free Northman pointed out, he'd already kicked this theory around and came to an alternate conclusion. However, I feel that none of the opinions or citations I've read so far have made the Asha angle "impossible."

In any case, to prove authoriship requires (more of) TWOW to be published, and so our watch... continues.

[The Lordly Oak]

Asha's Access to Info:

In a key sentence from Theon I, TWOW, Theon not only confirms the passage of information from Mance to him, but passes the info along to Asha as well:

Then the words came spilling out of Theon in a rush. He tried to tell her all of it, about Reek and the Dreadfort and Kyra and the keys, how Lord Ramsay never took anything but skin unless you begged for it. He told her how he'd saved the girl, leaping from the castle wall into the snow. "We flew. Let Abel make a song of that, we flew." Then he had to say who Abel was, and talk about the washerwomen who weren't truly washerwomen.

So if nothing else, Theon I provides us with a direct link for the passage of information from Theon to Asha (although not yet to Stannis, for those purporting Stannis as the author). Specifically, Theon exposes – to Asha – elements of his conversation with Mance including the true identity of Abel and the washerwomen, and details about his time as Reek... key info to have if one is going to author the Letter.

I think that you are seriously misreading that passage. Yes, in raising Abel in his story to Asha, Theon "had to say who Abel was", but I saw no indication from A Dance with Dragons that Theon has any clue that Abel is Mance. Indeed, it is very difficult to see how Theon would surmise his identity as the "washerwomen" don't offer up his real name and Theon has very little information to hint to him that the wedding singer was indeed the purportedly dead former King-Beyond-the-Wall, especially since the only mention of Mance that Theon hears after leaving the Dread Fort is a brief mention from Stannis, in which he tells of smashing him at the Wall. Theon isn't giving away Abel's identity (because he doesn't know that identity himself), but rather belatedly giving exposition to a character he raised in his account.

The limited knowledge of Mance and his appearance in the letter is a pretty good filter for limiting possible authors and two of the possibilities eliminated from plausibility are the Greyjoy siblings. In fact, the only member of Stannis' camp who passes that filter is Stannis himself, though I'd quickly add that while he may have some of the requisite knowledge as well as some motive for seeing Jon ride south, the notion of his authorship does seem out of character. I'll leave the door open to Stannis, though. After all, this was part of what Theon told Stannis:

"Frey and Manderly will never combine their strengths. They will come for you, but separately. Lord Ramsay will not be far behind them. He wants his bride back. He wants his Reek."

The last lines echo a bit of the Bastard Letter. Still, the Theon chapter from The Winds of Winter seems more like a conspiracy between Stannis, Asha, and the ravens to have Theon sacrificed to the old gods, not one to bring Jon south, though if Asha was involved in the letter, I would think that it would have to be in conspiracy with Stannis for her to know anything about Mance Rayder.

More likely than any of those characters being involved is a letter originating from Winterfell, which puts Ramsay, Mance, or Roose as the main suspects. If you think that Asha ranks up with them in terms of plausibility, you might as well throw in Tycho Nestoris, the Braavosi banker.

[fassreiter]

I think that you are seriously misreading that passage. Yes, in raising Abel in his story to Asha, Theon "had to say who Abel was", but I saw no indication from A Dance with Dragons that Theon has any clue that Abel is Mance. Indeed, it is very difficult to see how Theon would surmise his identity as the "washerwomen" don't offer up his real name and Theon has very little information to hint to him that the wedding singer was indeed the purportedly dead former King-Beyond-the-Wall, especially since the only mention of Mance that Theon hears after leaving the Dread Fort is a brief mention from Stannis, in which he tells of smashing him at the Wall. Theon isn't giving away Abel's identity (because he doesn't know that identity himself), but rather belatedly giving exposition to a character he raised in his account.

This is what I thought since the night the gift chapter was 'published'. In fact, the Asha-theory was brought up the same evening the chapter had come out, and it was discussed in some of the older Theon I (TWOW) threads. If I remember correctly, the theory did not have much impact on this board because we soon realized that it is far from certain that Theon could have told Asha who Abel 'really' was, apart from the fact that he was a singer. I considered the Asha theory briefly, but because of this problem I did not pursue it any further.

Now I went back to the text again after reading the OP's theory and I would like to add this:

There is indeed no indication in ADWD that Theon has any idea who Mance might be. This is supported by the fact that he never, not once, remarks on Abel's military experience or his abilities as a fighter. Instead he comes to the conclusion that the "singer"'s plan is "madness", and this doesn't come as a surprise to him, because "all singers are mad". He tried to prevent Mance from going through with his "mad" plan by telling him what would happen to them if they were caught. These are instances where we would suspect that the subject of being King-Beyond-the-Wall would have been brought up by either Mance or Theon, at least it would have to leave a trace in Theon's internal monologue when he reflects on "Abel"'s fate and his own. But he always refers to Abel not as a fighter, but as a singer only, and he never thinks about the consequences of either being caught with the King-Beyond-the-Wall or about the consequences this could have with regard to the wildlings who recently attacked the North. If he really knew about Abel's identity, it would be madness on Theon's part not to include this information into his fretting and begging.

On the other hand, this might actually be explained with the help of the bad writing card. It is clearly GRRM's intention to keep Abel's identity a secret for as long as possible, so that the pink letter will have a greater impact on those who didn't spot the clues throughout Theon's last chapters in ADWD. These clues are, in fact, strange. For example: The spearwives suddenly start talking wildling slang, they refer freely to the Wall, they admit that they climbed it in order to raid the lands beyond and they even refer to the men of Bolton and Manderly as "kneelers". This is clearly meant as a clue for readers. Many people on this board said that they didn't realize who Abel was until this moment, because suddenly it was obvious where the six spearwives had gone after they had been mentioned in Melisandre I (ADWD). Now, Theon's reaction is questionable: he doesn't react at all. This, however, can be explained by several factors: He might have been in fear and didn't fully realize what they said. Or he migh have known all along that he was dealing with wildlings, most likely since he and Abel had their little chat. Or GRRM might have ignored the fact that Theon would have had to identify the washerwomen as spearwives in favour of keeping up the suspense. We don't know. In any case, we don't know if the fact that Theon knew that the women were wildlings does actually imply that he knew that Abel was Mance Rayder. The women treat Abel as Mance, and basically the only concession they make to his secret identity is not calling him by his real name. However, all their references to Abel in Theon I (ADWD) seem to support the theory that they would expect Theon to know who he is dealing with, for example reassuring him that Abel's word is as solid as possible. This would be really bad writing, because it is impossible then that Theon would not once remark on this fact in his inner monologue, but it is a possibility.

Therefore I am no longer sure that this argument is actually valid with regard to the Asha theory.

There is also another argument: Many people seem to think that the letter writer's intention would be to draw a wildling army to Winterfell. But as far as we know, there is no way anyone in Winterfell would even know about the wildling army. Maybe I am missing something here, because nearly everyone seems to think this was the main intention. However, Mance left Castle Black way before Jon decided to have Val look for Tormund and his people, he wouldn't know if any of his people were still alive, he wouldn't know that they had been allowed to pass, he wouldn't know their number or the number of fighters among them. As far as Mance and the spearwives (and therefore Ramsay) know, Jon has not an army but a Castle that is almost impossible to defend from the south, manned with a small crew of inept crows, full of tired and wounded wildling prisoners, and almost out of provisions. There is no threat there (in my opinion, the letter's intention was not to provoke Jon to go to war, but to threaten him into giving up Arya, Theon and some hostages).

So I was wondering why people believe the letter writer knew about the wildling army.

I know some people on this board suspect that Mance might have ways of communicating with his people. I don't think this is likely. If it was possible, why not make better use of it? Furthermore, there is no reason to believe that Mance lied when he told Jon they didn't have trained ravens: Jon never saw any ravens in his camp, and it is likely that most wildlings can't read. Of course they could theoretically communicate via warging, or they could use any kind of magic. This is a possibility, of course, but there is nothing in the text to support it, not even the smallest hint.

We do know since the gift chapter that Bolton had spies at Castle Black, but as far as we know, they all left when Stannis did, and there is no reason to assume that Ramsay or Roose have a way of communicating with someone at Castle Black. If this was the case, they would know that "Arya" and Theon did not arrive as Castle Black, contrary to what is assumed by the letter writer.

It is possible, however, that Stannis knows, because he communicates with Jon via raven mail, and it is therefore possible that Asha knows. Also she knows about Stannis' intention to send Arya to Castle Black (although she also knows that Theon would not be sent there, so this is also an argument against her).

So the Asha theory is interesting and it is a valid possibility. But I do not find it completely convincing. The motive is a bit of a stretch, which goes for any theory that proposes anyone else than Ramsay as the letter writer: Apart from the fact that it is not likely that any of the suspects even know about Jon's newly aquired military strength, there is no way anyone could have predicted Jon's reaction. And there is so much that could have gone wrong: Jon might have delivered Stannis' family into Ramsay's hands, he might have delivered Val and Mance's son, the letter might have been intercepted and Bolton might have learned who was responsible for "Arya"'s rescue in the first place, or (from the point of view of Asha) Jon might have decided to do nothing and wait for Arya and "Reek" to arrive.

Also, in order to explain how Asha could have known about Mance, we would have to accept a piece of really bad writing in an otherwise almost flawless chapter in ADWD. For now, I still believe that Ramsay wrote the letter, on the basis of some misinformation and with some lies added on his part (the lies concerning Mance, mostly because I do not believe that GRRM would have the heart to actually go through with this, and since Jon III, we actually deserve a break).