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Asha Wrote the Bastard Letter (Theon I, TWOW Spoilers)


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Point being, if she reasonably expects Theon to be executed, and is preparing a "humane" ground for the sacrifice, then why bother and request Reek's delivery? For her, asking for Reek from Jon is a redundancy, as she know exactly where the former is. She also is aware that dropping a "Reek" name by and large would not motivate Jon to any actions. On the other side, if she were to write "I want Theon back", this information would have been valuable and comprehensible to Jon (irrespective of what he would have done with this knowledge). In this context, it is a valid point that was raised above - as a result of the letter, Jon's moving on to Winterfell is to 1) protect the NW from the Bolton threats; 2) a lesser extent to save Arya; and 3) not to deliver/save Reek (of whom he knows nothing). While, I firmly believe that Asha's chief motive behind the letter (if she wrote it), would be to save Theon. But this doesn't compute into into her requesting a sacrifice and not mentioning Theon plain enough for Jon to see.

Is there something we are missing?

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[...]

As I said, this is during Stannis’ initial character setup, and he’s hardly wavered as a character through several books. He’ll bend before he breaks, etc., etc.

So while it’s entirely possible that Stannis is planning to send “lies” to Winterfell, I suppose I’m in the camp of folks who finds it hard to believe. Ramsay – not unlike the Lannisters in ACOK – is Stannis’ enemy. Yet even in dealing with his enemies, subterfuge and deceit are not in his “deck.”

Contrarily, Stannis has certainly leaned on Davos in the past to perform deeds he’s not up to himself. He also “[brought] a shadowbinder from Asshai” for whatever grand purpose. But he doesn’t seem to personally lie, cheat or steal. At least historically.

What would you make of Stannis relying on dark magics to murder his own brother and Courtnay Penrose? Or launching a sneak attack, at night, against the Ironmen? Stannis will do whatever it takes to win from what I can see.

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I'm sorry if I missed it, but how does Jon coming from the Wall with an army help Theon?

Even if Theon and Asha convinced Jon that he didn't kill Bran and Rickon, Theon betrayed the Starks, captured WF, killed some of its people (including the miller's boys and the Smith). And Jon is a bit of a far thinker. Theon's betrayal, including his claims that he killed Bran or Rickon, of Robb was a major contributor in Robb's death.

Jon would be as quick as Stannis to take of Theon's head.

So I don't see a reasonable motive for either Asha or Theon to write the Letter.

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I don't believe Jon has any authority in beheading Theon. On the other side, he may accept him in the NW, which could be the "way out" that Asha is looking for. But then again, why insist on sacrifice at the Weirwood?

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The weirwood sacrifice I understand; if she can't save him she wants Theon to die as painlessly as possible. For all his faults, Theon is Asha's little brother and she is trying to protect him or, if she can't, make sure he avoids as much pain as possible. Beheading beats fire by a mile.

But what motive do either Theon or Asha have to write the letter? What are they attempting to achieve? I can think of nothing rational, so while they have the information to concoct it if so desired, I fail to see why they would.

I see why Ramsay, Mance or Stannis could each indvidually benefit from sending the letter, though I heavily lean toward Ramsay as the author (though I also think he's been deceived in a number of ways). I don't see the same benefit for either Asha or Theon.

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I still think that Ramsay is the likeliest author of the letter. He does have a reason, and the idea that Stannis would use misinformation is more then possible. When it comes to war, it's not dishonorable, it's just strategy. He tricked the ironborn and surrounded at Fair Island, he surprised the wildlings at the Wall, why not send a letter saying that he is dead?? It might not even be his plan, it could be done by Manderlay.

Even so, I like the Asha theory a lot, especially because it involves a POV character. The other theories: Stannis, Roose, Manderlay are all full of holes. Mance is a possibility, he does have the knowledge, but I just don't see GRRM taking the story in that direction. I also agree with what Slayer of Lies says about the narrative future. Ramsay as an author really doesn't do much for the plot, and there is a lot of foreshadowing in Asha's chapters. Now, the theory does have a couple of weak points. First, are the reasons for the letter... what is Asha planning to achieve. Keeping Theon alive? more then likely, but what is her train of thought? There are some good ideas, and some bad ones, but I don't see this really as a problem. There are a lot of things that could happen in the days following Theon 1 sample chapter. 1 or 2 battles, a weirwood discussion, who knows?? and why guess? I can see some scenarios where Asha would think it good for her to have Jon coming South.

The second one is the ravens. Where does she get a raven trained for Castle Black?? Yes, Stannis sent a raven from Deepwood Motte, but honestly, that was probably a raven from there, not one of his own. I don't think he has a maester with him, and if he had any ravens, wouldn't he had sent a letter to Mel, at least when he camped at the lakes?? Wouldn't he had sent a message to Jon that he had recovered his sister, that Massey, the Braavosi are headed back?? He sends nothing because he has no ravens. The Karstarks bring 3 ravens, one of which is already sent.... and I think it's clear that the other 2 are also trained to go to Winterfell. If the first raven flies to Winterfell with a map, they must have at least one more with the same destination ready, in case of emergencies. Even in the unlikely case that the 3rd was trained for something different, it would be either Karhold or the Dreadfort, not Castle Black which is really unimportant to the Karstarks. This puts a dent in the theory IMO, but not a decisive one. The letter could have been sent after Stannis conquers Winterfell, and that paints a completely different picture.

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Very interesting, but I am not convinced. Though, for everyone claiming that The Bastard of Bolton actually wrote the Pink Letter, you haven't been paying enough attention. Their are far too many tells in the info we do have. First, Tormund is a trustworthy character. Not because I like him, but he is one of those devices GRRM uses to communicate truths to the reader. For two and a half books we are told that the Wildlings are uncivilized savages, even Old Nan (the ultimate in trustworthy characters, though I think it's clear that she is prone to exaggeration) says so, but in typical fashion, when they are finally encountered we see that some of them are pretty decent folk. Tormund is at the top of that list. When he says the letter might not be true he is actually GRRM telling us "yo this is a red herring everybody." Based on that line alone I KNOW the author isn't Ramsay.

This of course has been said over and over, but the other massive tell is the parallel structure of the letter's language and what Theon says to Stannis in the sample chapter. The Pink Letter says "I want my bride back...And I want my Reek." Theon says to Stannis, "He wants his bride back. He wants his Reek." That my friends, is a smoking gun. Ramsey did not write the letter.

Finally, there is the use of the word "Bastard" to start the letter. We know Mance calls Jon this at least a few times, the reason some people think Mance wrote it. And we also know The Bastard of Bolton hates even hearing that word. It strikes me that it wouldn't occur to him to use it to insult someone else. The Bastard would probably think that "Crow" or even "Jon Snow" (calling Jon a bastard without saying the dreaded word) would be just as big of a slander. This is the weakest bit of speculation, I will freely admit, but it feels sound to me.

Also, Stannis never has had a magic sword. Ever.

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Tormund is at the top of that list. When he says the letter might not be true he is actually GRRM telling us "yo this is a red herring everybody." Based on that line alone I KNOW the author isn't Ramsay.

So, all the times he speaks about his member you believe it? :)

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Very interesting, but I am not convinced. Though, for everyone claiming that The Bastard of Bolton actually wrote the Pink Letter, you haven't been paying enough attention. Their are far too many tells in the info we do have. First, Tormund is a trustworthy character. Not because I like him, but he is one of those devices GRRM uses to communicate truths to the reader. For two and a half books we are told that the Wildlings are uncivilized savages, even Old Nan (the ultimate in trustworthy characters, though I think it's clear that she is prone to exaggeration) says so, but in typical fashion, when they are finally encountered we see that some of them are pretty decent folk. Tormund is at the top of that list. When he says the letter might not be true he is actually GRRM telling us "yo this is a red herring everybody." Based on that line alone I KNOW the author isn't Ramsay.

This of course has been said over and over, but the other massive tell is the parallel structure of the letter's language and what Theon says to Stannis in the sample chapter. The Pink Letter says "I want my bride back...And I want my Reek." Theon says to Stannis, "He wants his bride back. He wants his Reek." That my friends, is a smoking gun. Ramsey did not write the letter.

Finally, there is the use of the word "Bastard" to start the letter. We know Mance calls Jon this at least a few times, the reason some people think Mance wrote it. And we also know The Bastard of Bolton hates even hearing that word. It strikes me that it wouldn't occur to him to use it to insult someone else. The Bastard would probably think that "Crow" or even "Jon Snow" (calling Jon a bastard without saying the dreaded word) would be just as big of a slander. This is the weakest bit of speculation, I will freely admit, but it feels sound to me.

Also, Stannis never has had a magic sword. Ever.

In inverse order:

1. Stannis has a fake magic sword, manufactured by Mel. It is that sword which is probably being referred to.

2. Ramsay hates the word "bastard" used in relation to himself. I believe that he has used the term in relation to Jon before.

3. Theon is conditioned. He knows Ramsay inside and out (and vice-versa) and it is equally likely that Theon is parroting how he knows Ramsay would react and what he would say. He has offered advice on Ramsay's behaviors on multiple occassions, so this shouldn't be a shock.

4. Tormund is a reliable character. And I think the "lies" he references are more than accounted for by the misinformation Stannis is feeding Ramsay. While Ramsay believes it to be true, what he believes is actually false.

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#1 Everyone who has seen Stannis' "Lightbringer" knows it is fake, so If Ramsey wrote it, wouldn't it be more effective to call him out on that? #2 Show us where and I will freely concede. #3 This is massive speculation on your part, whereas parallel structure is a known literary device. #4 I am glad we agree on something, even if not fully.

I'm not trying to be a jerk or anything, you just didn't successfully debunk anything I said.

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@Slayer of Lies, Thanks for responding to my post. One thing I'd like to do is respond to your comments about Stannis:

If so, however, this falls under what several readers have pointed out on other threads as Stannis’ “character assassination,” or at least character inconsistency (which is also why I don’t believe he wrote/will write the Bastard Letter, let alone will write something deceitful to the Boltons).

In Davos I, ACOK (the “classic” example) when Stannis, Pylos and company are penning the “Baratheon incest” letter regarding the parentage of Joffrey, Tommen and Myrcella, Stannis makes a couple of critical “fact-checking” corrections to the letter that help set up his character very early on in the books:

“Make it Ser Jaime the Kingslayer henceforth,” Stannis said, rowing. “Whatever else the man may be, he remains a knight. I don’t know that we ought to call Robert my beloved brother either. He loved me no more than he had to, nor I him.”

“A harmless courtesy, Your Grace,” Pylos said.

“A lie. Take it out.”

As I said, this is during Stannis’ initial character setup, and he’s hardly wavered as a character through several books. He’ll bend before he breaks, etc., etc.

So while it’s entirely possible that Stannis is planning to send “lies” to Winterfell, I suppose I’m in the camp of folks who finds it hard to believe. Ramsay – not unlike the Lannisters in ACOK – is Stannis’ enemy. Yet even in dealing with his enemies, subterfuge and deceit are not in his “deck.”

Contrarily, Stannis has certainly leaned on Davos in the past to perform deeds he’s not up to himself. He also “[brought] a shadowbinder from Asshai” for whatever grand purpose. But he doesn’t seem to personally lie, cheat or steal. At least historically.

I agree with many of your points as they pertain to the possibility that Stannis wrote the bastard letter. It seems a dishonorable thing to do since Stannis and Jon are basically allies. In the past, I have also used that same passage you quote ("A lie, take it out") to argue that Stannis did not write the bastard letter, too.

I think it is a different matter altogether if we are talking about Stannis writing a letter to Ramsay, though. Since Stannis is at war with Ramsay, I think writing a deceitful letter to Ramsay to gain a tactical advantage could be in character for Stannis.

Bayard made the following point which I quite agree with:

I still think that Ramsay is the likeliest author of the letter. He does have a reason, and the idea that Stannis would use misinformation is more then possible. When it comes to war, it's not dishonorable, it's just strategy. He tricked the ironborn and surrounded at Fair Island, he surprised the wildlings at the Wall, why not send a letter saying that he is dead?? It might not even be his plan, it could be done by Manderlay.

Bayard also presents the alternate theory that Manderly could also be the agent of deceipt (in which case presumably the Karstark ravens are not used, but Manderly returns in person with Stannis' sword). Perhaps if Manderly performs such a "Davosian" function allowing Stannis to indirectly deceive Ramsay then the theory may be more acceptable to you?

Also Stannis is not Ned. I don't think he is one of those characters who is honorable to a fault. Instead he does what he thinks needs to be done. It was not honorable of him to burn Edric Storm but he was ready to do this because he thought it would save many more innocent lives than it cost. It's conceivable he could be using the same calculus that he needs to deceive Ramsay in order to take Winterfell and save lives.

Separately, as a pure math problem, the “echoing of phrases” is either that both phrases are coincidental, that neither of them is, or that one of them is.

To that end, if only Stannis’ “death” phrase is foreshadowing for the proposed upcoming subterfuge, and Theon’s “bride and Reek” phrase is purely coincidental, I find the choice to put both phrases into Theon’s chapter a little odd. But as I said, the echoing of phrases is both intriguing and muddies the waters at the same time.

On the flipside, the most interesting angle (IMO) is that neither one of the echoed phrases is coincidental, suggesting several possibilites, amongst which are that the Letter has already been written and Theon knows its contents, or that both phrases are foreshadowing for a Letter that is about to be written with Theon’s involvement, and Asha’s “template.”

Or, as Steve Moss II points out in his point #3 of this post, it just shows that Theon knows how Ramsay thinks and anticipates what Ramsay is thinking. In this case neither the "you may hear that I am dead" nor the "he wants his bride back" phrases are coincidental (I agree this is the most interesting angle). "You may hear that I am dead" because Stannis is planning to trick Ramsay into thinking that he is dead and "he wants his bride back" because Theon knows how Ramsay thinks.

#1 Everyone who has seen Stannis' "Lightbringer" knows it is fake, so If Ramsey wrote it, wouldn't it be more effective to call him out on that?

Just because the fiery sword isn't hot doesn't mean it's not magic. It's still magic. Some characters (Aemon, Salladhor Saan, maybe others I can't remember of the top of my head) have noticed that it is not hot which they think means that it is not the red sword of heroes, but that is a different thing I think. I fiery sword that is not hot and never goes out sounds like magic to me!

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Here's how Stannis' sword is described in a Storm of Swords:

Maester Aemon smiled. "Your Grace," he said, "before we go, I wonder if you would do us the great honor of showing us this wondrous blade we have all heard so very much of."

"You want to see Lightbringer? A blind man?"

"Sam shall be my eyes"

The king frowned. "Everyone else has seen the thing, why not a blind man?" His swordbelt and scabbard hung from a peg near the hearth. He took the belt down and drew the longsword out. Steel scraped against wood and leather, and radiance filled the solar; shimmering, shifting, a dance of gold and orange and red light, all the bright colors of fire.

"Tell me, Samwell." Maester Aemon touched his arm.

"it glows," said Sam, in a hushed voice. "As if it were on fire. There are no flames, but the steel is yellow and red and orange, all flashing and glimmering, like sunshine on water, but prettier. I wish you could see it, Maester."

Later Sam and Aemon talk about how the sword gives off no heat. But based on the description the sword seems magical to me even without the heat.

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As I said, magic used on the sword, but not a magic sword. We already know that Melisandre is good with the glamour spells, because of the Rattleshirt - Mance switcheroo. The whole point of Aemon asking if the sword is hot is to show to Sam (and of course to the reader as well) that the sword is not magic. Your quote suffers from a selection bias, as you failed to include the bit where Aemon tells Sam that Lightbringer should be hot.

Unfortunately, my GF has our kindle and is out of town (which is why I am posting and not reading) so I cannot quote directly from the book. But, go ahead and read the next line after you chose to end your quote. Aemon knows it's hogwash. In fact, it takes a blind man to "see" that the sword is not what Stannis and Mel claim. Yet another reason GRRM rules.

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Yes, I agree that Aemon (and Salladhor Saan) know that the sword is not lightbringer.

In your earlier post you said:

#1 Everyone who has seen Stannis' "Lightbringer" knows it is fake,

I was trying to make the point that only two people (Aemon and Salladhor) think the sword is not Lightbringer. Everyone else probably thinks it is.

Ramsay (or whoever the author of the pink letter was) doesn't claim that the sword is Lightbringer, he just says "magic sword". Whether the sword itself is magic or is not itself magic but instead has a magic glamour applied to it is a distinction I think would be lost on most characters, including Ramsay.

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That's fair. Using the word "everybody" was obviously an overstatement on my part. I guess I meant "everybody" that matters to readers. However, I stick to my original claim that from Ramsay's point of view, it seems like calling out the sword as a phony would be more effective. It's ok, we can agree to disagree.

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brut - Actually, you've made some valid points, re: why Theon would be referred to as Reek instead of Theon. The only conclusion I can come up with is that it wouldn't have mattered whatever had written in place of his name, because Jon wouldn't have been disposed to rescue him anyway. Using the name given him by Ramsay would likely tie up nicely with any other messages that Ramsay may be sending to the Wall, though this again anticipates that Ramsay is mad enough to do so, which he unfortunately is, so he's still logically the most viable candidate. However, in terms of how Martin operates, it isn't the most logical within the series, because it makes a red herring of the Theon redemption arc as well as eliminating a poetic downfall. Ramsay's exhibitionistic letter-writing in this case would have him hanging by his own petard, but this is only likely of course if Jon is still alive.

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I agree with vivatforx about Ramsay calling out the sword as fake. I'm not even convinced the sword would glow if taken from Stannis, because I think the sword's glamour is built on something Stannis carries on his person, the same way the Rattleshirt glamour was built on the bones. Mel tells us that the best glamours are built on such things, a lock of hair, a bag of finger bones, a dead man's boots. So I think Stannis, my choice of author, can quietly inform Mel that the letter is fake by using the line, "I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore."

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A valid point, though I disagree with the Stannis argument. In this case, Mel could most likely tell if Ramsay is "lying", i.e. the letter is fake and meant to galvanise Jon, by looking in the flames, or observing a simiilar glamour she has in her possession which is attached to Stannis' sword. The fact she tells Jon he should anticipate a letter which may force him into action is also another point that should be addressed, because her possible pre-knowledge of who the author could be opens up another POV candidate for clearing up this mystery.

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