Asha Wrote the Bastard Letter (Theon I, TWOW Spoilers)

[Lord Jon Connington]

That's fair. Using the word "everybody" was obviously an overstatement on my part. I guess I meant "everybody" that matters to readers. However, I stick to my original claim that from Ramsay's point of view, it seems like calling out the sword as a phony would be more effective. It's ok, we can agree to disagree.

Could it be that Ramsay has actually never *seen* the sword and he's talking out of his arse? If all he's heard from Stannis's sword comes from the mouth of a spearwife/Mance/Abel, he put that in the letter to make the letter seem more legit. I'd wager he doesn't have Stannis's head on a spike either.

[The Killer Snark]

I think we're all about ninety percent sure here apart maybe from one unnamed individual, presently on the naughty step, that Ramsay is indeed talking out his arseflaps, if the author indeed is he.

[Slayer of Lies]

On Fiction:

Wading through the primary reader hang-ups, it seems that motives and means come up most frequently, as they should if the “Asha theory” doesn’t strike you as perfectly sound. At the risk of repeating myself, I’ll touch on a couple quick points.

In fairness to all potential authors (and their exceedingly divergent fan bases), the primary reason I started this thread was as more of a, “Hey, think about this possibility too!” It’s an interesting angle to consider at minimum.

As for the other potential authors, Ramsay receiving misinformation is a reasonable play as well (and discussed heavily on other threads), as is the notion of Mance not being in captivity at all. And, good ol’ Stanny keeps coming up too. All of those and more are plausible plays still, should the right sequence of events and information access fall completely into place for GRRM’s chosen author.

Based on the timeline, for example, it could be “days” yet until the Letter is actually crafted, and the variety of speculative futures is pretty wide open. Pertaining to potential events in Stannis’ camp, for example, a wounded spearwife (or even Mance himself) could stumble upon the camp and the Letter crafting falls out of that. Game over. Or Theon being taken to the island could result in a “vision” of some sort that leads down the path of crafting the Letter. Didn’t see that one coming. Just as well, Bran could “guide” a raven that would otherwise fly to Winterfell to Castle Black instead. Magic, mother%&$#!

In fiction, of course an alternate author’s means would be fairly easy to cook up, so I personally don’t find as many “roadblocks” for alternate authorship as some do.

On Means:

Of course, the “known means” that appear in the text could be viewed as potential clues.

Naturally, Ramsay has the fewest roadblocks (excepting Mance’s captivity or cooperation), having already sent letters to Castle Black, and having unrestricted access to the amenities of Winterfell. In terms of means, Ramsay certainly represents the path of least resistance.

Meanwhile, if one considers Mance as the sole author, beyond having no textual confirmation that he can read and write, we also don’t have any canonical references to his direct access to pen, paper, ravens, etc., with the exception of the fact that he is/was in Winterfell. But with where we left him, one might assume that he can no longer roam freely about the castle (unless, of course, he has temporarily aligned with the Michael Boltons).

As for Asha – I along with other fans of the theory (you know who you are, and many thanks) – have laid out what may later prove to be text-supported means regarding Asha’s access to info through Theon, that she’s picked up quite a bit of info from Massey, Aly and others in Stannis’ camp (wildling princess, magic sword, an understanding of “Red Rahloo,” etc.), that there is a quill, ink and paper in the tower house, that Jon believes Stannis has access to ravens, and so on. After some 200+ posts, most of the angles have been covered on previous pages (not to mention in other threads), and perhaps the citations we’ve all identified will later reveal themselves as clues.

On Motives:

The OP (and elsewhere) discusses not only Asha’s need (and desire) to have Theon live to overthrow the kingsmoot, but that – in order for that to happen – they both have to live, and they both have to escape to the Iron Islands. Also, desperation has been called out and cited as well. In any case, while the “escape to the Iron Islands” could be an entirely separate and unrelated series of events, we also have this (again):

Either way it seemed to Asha that the king was lost and crying out for help.

Yet, how can Asha help a man that won’t ask for – or accept – her help? Slyly, methinks.

Combining the motives in the OP (and elsewhere in this thread) along with the possible means scattered throughout the text as well (access to info and Letter crafting materials), it’s possible that GRRM has been slowly telegraphing a suspect to us that we wouldn’t “normally” consider.

And to those that disagree with the motives and means as potential clues, fair enough. But keep in mind that Asha doesn’t necessarily need or want to take credit for writing the Letter, and she would hardly expect Jon to dish out high-fives and hugs were he to arrive to extricate Stannis’ and company from their present situation.

Winterfell Vs. Camp Stannis:

Another way to look at this situation would be to lump the potential authors into two primary camps.

Regardless of which author wrote the Letter, does it come from Winterfell or Stannis’ camp?

Thanks to the “inseparability” of Reek and Ramsay, I believe that both camps have the means of providing the tone of the Letter. And if you accept the hinge of the “Asha theory” that Theon may be holding onto the information required to write the Letter (or perhaps that Stannis was otherwise informed of Mance’s “burning” and “secret mission” off-screen, as three-eyed monkey suggests in the Stannis thread), there are potential means are in place for both camps to craft the Letter.

If you then consider the collective motives of each camp, I think it’s probable that a poll would come up 80/20 in favor of Winterfell (despite being 50/50 on Ramsay-versus-Mance), but the Seven love an underdog… or at least I’ve heard.

To Infinity and Beyond:

Based on the pace of this thread (some 500+ views a day and 10 pages of replies in just over 3 weeks) it seems this thread may be on its way to a V2.

Thanks to key criticism throughout the thread, the OP could probably benefit from some tuning, and I may make another attempt at that in the coming weeks.

[The Killer Snark]

Slayer - The Stannis theory does hinge primarily, methinks (and as said variously already, I am in your camp, except I believe the letter was crafted by Theon after pooling information with Asha, who penned it), on one valuable point, that the intitial Theon chapter previewed might be set as much as a few weeks before the letter reaches Jon, in which case Theon can't die at the heart tree. But I can't see how he survives the experience to transmit information or help Stanny with the letter, which is partly why I rule Stan out, because he can't come up purely by accident with a pastiche of Ramsay alone, and probably Asha can't either, on the basis of receiving one letter, though the whole setup was probably her idea. So Theon is the likeliest candidate for this; and I still believe that Asha somehow kept the Deepwood Motte letter though I can't really understand why. Perhaps she intended to show it to potential Greyjoy allies she found while roaming away from the forest so they could help her amass a force against The Dreadfort. Of course, she wouldn't have known yet that Ramsay was at Winterfell.

Of course, Stannis could have taken said letter and got someone else to forge the 'bastard' one. But logically, he would still need information received from Winterfell by Theon, and in the chapter we're alluding to, it's obvious he's not supplying the information readily that Stan could construct a letter from.

A thing also to bear in mind is that AFfC starts off after its prologue with an Aeron chapter clearly set time-wise halfway through ASoS, transplanted to Book 4 in order to give a background to the kingsmoot. The first Quentyn chapter in ADwD takes place before the final Arianne one in AFfC. So GRRM is clearly fond of occasionally screwing with chronology in order to give narrative context. Whether this is the final Theon chapter, or the first, we do not know: but he would have to survive, which I think is unlikely, in order to make Stanners a viable candidate: but in the case he isn't executed, all of a sudden Stannis is a prime candidate for the fake letter plan, because it signals that the preview chapter actually does take place long before Jon decides to leave The Wall.

Logically, I'm running with an Asha and Theon collaboration in the event the preview chapter is set not long before the end of ADwD, unless the letter is from Ramsay, and Martin has seemed to go well out of his way here to imply to us it might be not.

[Lord Jon Connington]

[...]

So in an upcoming POV, all that remains is for Asha to take advantage of a diversion and head to the guardhouse, where as it happens, Stannis has conveniently left the two remaining ravens, a quill, and a pot of (presently frozen) ink.

From Theon I of TWOW

Stannis snapped the word out. "A maester's raven flies to one place, and one place only. Is that correct?"

The maester mopped sweat from his brow with his sleeve. "N-not entirely, Your Grace. Most, yes. Some few can be taught to fly between two castles. Such birds are greatly prized. And once in a very great while, we find a raven who can learn the names of three or four or five castles, and fly to each upon command. Birds as clever as that come along only once in a hundred years."

Stannis gestured at the black birds in the cages. "These two are not so clever, I presume."

"No, Your Grace. Would that it were so."

"Tell me, then. Where are these two trained to fly?"

Maester Tybald did not answer. Theon Greyjoy kicked his feet feebly, and laughed under his breath. Caught!

"Answer me. If we were to loose these birds, would they return to the Dreadfort?" The king leaned forward. "Or might they fly for Winterfell instead?"

Maester Tybald pissed his robes. Theon could not see the dark stain spreading from where he hung, but the smell of piss was sharp and strong.

"Maester Tybald has lost his tongue," Stannis observed to his knights. "Godry, how many cages did you find?"

"Three, Your Grace," said the big knight in the silvered breastplate. "One was empty."

"Y-your Grace, my order is sworn to serve, we... "

"I know all about your vows. What I want to know is what was in the letter that you sent to Winterfell. Did you perchance tell Lord Bolton where to find us?"

[...]

That pretty much kills this Asha theory right there don't it?

[three-eyed monkey]

Slayer - The Stannis theory does hinge primarily, methinks (and as said variously already, I am in your camp, except I believe the letter was crafted by Theon after pooling information with Asha, who penned it), on one valuable point, that the intitial Theon chapter previewed might be set as much as a few weeks before the letter reaches Jon, in which case Theon can't die at the heart tree. But I can't see how he survives the experience to transmit information or help Stanny with the letter, which is partly why I rule Stan out, because he can't come up purely by accident with a pastiche of Ramsay alone, and probably Asha can't either, on the basis of receiving one letter, though the whole setup was probably her idea. So Theon is the likeliest candidate for this; and I still believe that Asha somehow kept the Deepwood Motte letter though I can't really understand why.

snip...

Snarkster, The Stannis theory does rely on Theon's chapter being set before Jon receives the letter, but not weeks before. It only needs to take place however long it takes a raven to fly the ~600 miles to Castle Black, a journey of 1 to 3 days in my estimation [ see - http://asoiaf.wester...s-fly-in-a-day/ ], before the stabbing. So Theon could still die at the tree, between 1-3 days after we last saw him, which is plausible as long as the next Theon or Asha chapter does not commence immediately after the chapter we have. Nor is it certain that Theon will die at the weirwood tree, though I tend to think he will.

The reason you can't understand why Asha kept the letter is because she didn't keep the letter. Asha let the maester in Deepwood Motte take the letter to Lady Glover, that much is confirmed in the text in 'the wayward bride' chapter: Asha shoved the letter into the maester's hands. "Here. Let her [sybelle Glover] find some solace here if she can. You have my leave to go."

So when Stannis takes the castle the letter is probably with Lady Glover. We also know that Stannis saw the letter or at least learned of its contents because when he writes to Jon from Deepwood Motte he mentions, "And word has come to us the Roose Bolton moves toward Winterfell with all his power, there to wed his bastard to your half-sister," which is part of what the letter said. If the letter is anywhere it's in the recycle bin in Deepwood Motte or it's in Stannis' possession. Asha does not have the letter, and when she read it, she read it with no great interest so may not even remember it in great detail.

Slayer, I'm very impressed with your argument, particularly around ruling out Ramsay. [hehe] There is much we're in agreement about, like the letter coming from the Stannis camp as opposed to Winterfell, plus, the information and means to construct and send the letter being available at the Stannis camp, but we differ on the letter's author.

You don't believe such a deception is in Stannis' nature, which I admit is a widely-held view though not one I agree with. We could argue it back and forth but without a Stannis pov to rely on there could be no definitive result.

But a sticking point for me here is that Asha doesn't know enough of Jon's character to know what would needle him into action. The way I see it, it could only work if The King's Prize gets some time alone with Theon with quill, paper, pink wax, and a raven trained for Castle Black, with Theon dictating for the most part. The tower might provide some of these things but the only ravens there are trained for Winterfell, as pointed out by in Lord JonConn's quote above. Stannis, on the other hand, has access to all these things and like Asha has motive to bring Jon to Winterfell. But while Asha might opt for a straight plea to Jon for help, Stannis, having offered Jon the Stark name and Winterfell on a number of occasions and been rebuffed, would have to rely on subterfuge if he were to have any chance of budging Jon from the Wall.

[Ibbison from Ibben]

The author of the letter has to have several attributes:

access to pink wax

access to a Castle Black raven

knowledge of the Mance plot, including Jon's connection

knowledge of Val, her "wilding princess" label, Mance's son, and his "wilding prince" label

knowledge of "Reek", and how Ramsey would refer to him

knowledge of Theon/Reek and Arya/Jeyne's escape

As individuals, no one satisfies all these conditions without information exchange/extraction. So we need to look to combinations.

What was the purpose of the letter? To convince/fool Jon to do something. Do what? Ignoring some outrageous claims and demands, what does the letter say to Jon?

Stannis is dead ...blah blah blah ... Mance and his team have been captured ... blah blah blah... Arya has escaped. In other words, his little sister is fleeing, and Jon is the only one who can help her. (Jon probably took the time to ask himself, "If Ramsey has achieved such a stunning victory, how in seven hells did he lose Arya? But still, Jon can't take chances. Or so the letter writer would surmise.)

There are two routes Arya/Jeyne could use to reach the Wall- straight up the Kingsroad, or northwest along Stannis' track to Deepwood Motte. If she heads to Deepwood, she runs into Stannis. Ramsey is now compelled to attack Stannis, instead of leaving him to starve. (Sending the Freys and Manderlys after Stannis was just a case of getting rid of troublemakers. There is no sign that Ramsey is following right away.) He will need to send a group around Stannis to sweep the trail to Deepwood. He will also need to send a pursuit force up the Kingsroad. The last thing he needs is Jon coming down the Kingsroad, looking for Arya.

So who would write a letter that is simply begging Jon to head south to rescue Arya? Not Ramsey, certainly. Ramsey needs to do everything in his power to make sure Jon and Jeyne never meet. Once he sees Jeyne, a few ravens from Jon to the rest of the realm kills the fraudulent Bolton claim to Winterfell. Ramsey also needs to keep her away from Stannis. If she reaches anyone she can blab the truth to, they all must die before word gets out. (Ramsey would naturally assume Jeyne will spill the beans about her identity immediately upon reaching friendly hands.)

Who else would write the letter? Someone who wanted Jeyne rescued, and the Boltons exposed. The northern lords in Winterfell, the GNC (Great Northern Conspiracy), in conjunction with Mance. Mance was working on a plan, but the spearwives jumped the gun, so we don't know what the plan was. He could see Manderly was a Bolton opponent. If he had already approached Manderly and Co, they could have composed the letter before the confusion caused by the Frey sortie and subsequent escape. Lady Dustin could supply the Reek info, and help mimic Ramsey's writing style. The maesters at Winterfell were attached to Houses Cerwyn, Hornwood, and Slate, all Stark loyalists. Since they were handling Bolton's letters at WF, they would have access to pink sealing wax.

In this scenario, the Pink Letter is sent very soon after Theon and Jeyne's escape, probably before the Freys attack Stannis, and before Stannis does anything deceptive with the Dreadfort ravens. The Boltons have to stop Jeyne, and the letter is sent to Jon to increase Jeyne's chance of reaching safety.

OK, tell me what I got wrong.

[Slayer of Lies]

Logically, I'm running with an Asha and Theon collaboration in the event the preview chapter is set after the end of ADwD...

As was pointed out on GRRM's blog and confirmed by Ran (in the original Theon I thread) the chapter is almost certainly before Jon's stabbing, and I would think by about two weeks, maybe three tops.

GRRM says:

The chronology, as usual, is tricky. This chapter will be found eventually at the beginning of WINDS, but as you will be able to tell from context, it actually takes place before some of the chapters at the end of DANCE.

Ran says:

As far as timeline goes, George makes it clear in his comment that this chapter takes place before some of the ADwD chapters -- e.g., it's before Jon's final chapter.

So… Story problem time!

If a Stannis has been “three days from Winterfell for nineteen days,” if we can agree that it’s been two or three days since Theon’s escape (since a company of “perhaps as many as a score” might not take the full three days to get from WF to “camp Stannis”), and if it a takes a raven somewhere around two days to get from WF to CB (as discussed in this thread started by three-eyed monkey), how long do we have until the Letter is sent?

If it was sent the moment Theon arrive to camp, the Letter would have arrived “about a week” after Theon’s escape… yet Jeyne has not even left yet, so of course she is not at Castle Black.

So if it takes “about a week” for Jeyne to transfer from near WF to CB and the Letter must arrive before she does, it could leave as soon as “now” and as late as four days from “now” assuming the raven takes a two days to get there and needs to beat Jeyne.

Since we do not yet know when Jeyne will arrive at CB, we cannot suggest that “the Letter must be sent three days hence,” but we can say there’s a minimum of a four-day window in which to pen the Letter by Theon’s timestamp.

An additional consideration is that – if there’s any truth to “seven days of battle” – and Jeyne still has to arrive at CB after the Letter, that leaves a window of around eleven days from “now” in which the Letter can still be written (unless, of course, Jeyne dies along the way, which will make us all very sad).

So, by Theon's timestamp, the Letter can be written sometime over the next four to eleven days (or so), depending in part on where you side with the “seven days of battle" and in part on Jeyne's eventual arrival.

Therefore, inserted chronologically into ADWD, I’d put “Theon II” somewhere right in between Theon I (Chapter 51 in ADWD) and Jon XIII (Chapter 69 in ADWD), yet it also has to happen after The Sacrifice (Chapter 62 in ADWD). So put it somewhere in the Chapter 64-67 window on your next Feast for the Dragons of Winter reread.

[Slayer of Lies]

That pretty much kills this Asha theory right there don't it?

Nope.

It’s frequently claimed that Stannis only has access to two ravens, which come from Maester Tybald. Furthermore, and probably because one of those ravens flew to Winterfell with a map of Stannis’ location, it is also often claimed that those two ravens “definitely” go to Winterfell, despite canon confirmation of this “fact.”

I would like to point out that when Jon receives the original letter from Ramsay, it goes down like this:

”Lord Snow?” a soft voice said.

He turned to find Clydas standing beneath the broken archway, a parchment in his hand. “From Stannis?” Jon had been hoping for some word from the king.

In short, ravens coming from Stannis’ camp to Castle Black is not an obstacle in Jon’s mind, and therefore not in mine either. In fact, Jon must believe that Stannis brought ravens with him that are trained to fly to Castle Black, or he would not have said this.

At least, that's my take.

ETA: I'd also written the sections "On Fiction" and "On Means" in a previous post, which present some alternate "theory-reviving" possibilities.

[Ibbison from Ibben]

An additional comment on my post at #207 above. The exact timing of Mance's actions might seem a bit muddled in my account. That's largely because we don't know what Mance's original plan was. If anyone has any links to a thread that can explain what Mance was intending to do, I'd love to see them.

The points that I tried to emphasize in my theory were:

1) The importance of Jeyne to the Boltons, the magnitude of disaster her escape represents for them, and just how urgent her recovery is to them.

2) The unexpected, improvisational nature of her escape, due to the spearwives' opportunistic actions, and how that requires everyone else to improvise as well.

[Slayer of Lies]

But a sticking point for me here is that Asha doesn't know enough of Jon's character to know what would needle him into action. The way I see it, it could only work if The King's Prize gets some time alone with Theon with quill, paper, pink wax, and a raven trained for Castle Black, with Theon dictating for the most part. The tower might provide some of these things but the only ravens there are trained for Winterfell, as pointed out by in Lord JonConn's quote above. Stannis, on the other hand, has access to all these things and like Asha has motive to bring Jon to Winterfell. But while Asha might opt for a straight plea to Jon for help, Stannis, having offered Jon the Stark name and Winterfell on a number of occasions and been rebuffed, would have to rely on subterfuge if he were to have any chance of budging Jon from the Wall.

3EM: Thanks for the kind words! As for the opposing notions…

I consider that ravens for Stannis or ravens for Asha are obstacles of an equivalent nature, and probably not really worth quibbling over.

I’m not exactly ruling out Stannis’ involvement either; I’m simply saying Asha is an excellent right-hand “man” in the same way that Davos has been in the past when Stannis needed a smuggler around to accomplish a task.

As for getting under Jon’s skin, isn’t that purely intuitive?

For any potential alternate author, the “trick” would getting into character, trying to sound like Ramsay, and asking for the sorts of things Ramsay would ask for. So who’s at the Wall that “matters” to those you’re trying to incite? Whomever the author, if the goal is to "motivate" Jon to move, it's all about pushing as many buttons as possible.

From Asha’s original letter, she knows Jon’s homeland has been taken over by one of the worst men in Westeros. Through Massey and friends she’s learned who’s important to those in “camp Stannis.” Through Theon she may have learned of Mance and those who matter to him. And so on.

Flipping all that around, why would Stannis ask for his own wife and daughter? What’s Mance’s son to him? Etc.

So with equivalent hurdles for either of them to overcome to be a plausible author of the Letter, I simply opt to roll with the one who received a personal threat letter from Ramsay himself, whose brother has been all but destroyed by the guy, and who happens to be a mother%$#@ pirate. :cool4:

[The Killer Snark]

Just popping in to say to three-eyed monkey I stand corrected. Asha doesn't have the Deepwood letter; that was a point that had been bugging me for a while. You forget small details like this easily if it's your first time through the books.

Also, I'd meant to write earlier 'a long time before the end of ADwD' when referring to the possible date of the letter, if it was by Stannis, not 'after the end', which if the letter was written by anyone would be an impossibility. So I've corrected that embarrassing error at the end of my previous post.

[Ibbison from Ibben]

As for getting under Jon’s skin, isn’t that purely intuitive?

For any potential alternate author, the “trick” would getting into character, trying to sound like Ramsay, and asking for the sorts of things Ramsay would ask for. So who’s at the Wall that “matters” to those you’re trying to incite? Whomever the author, if the goal is to "motivate" Jon to move, it's all about pushing as many buttons as possible.

I think Ramsey would be difficult to emulate if you had never met him, but once you had, it would not be difficult at all. Imagine what Ramsey's reaction was when he found out Theon and Jeyne had escaped. He would go off on a rant that could only be considered epic. Anyone witnessing that could pull off a plausable Ramsey-esque letter, especially to Jon, who has never met Ramsey. Theon, of course, would be the most capable Ramsey imitator, but other people could do a decent job.

As for manipulating Jon, the most capable would seem to be Mance, Mel, and Stannis, in that order, with Mance far and away the best. In spite of all the interaction he's had with Jon, Stannis still doesn't understand him. Mance does (especially how concerned Jon is about Arya).

[The Killer Snark]

I agree with that assessment if it isn't Theon and Asha. Stannis is actually the least likely candidate to pull this out the hat on his own gumption because he doesn't really understand anyone, not even the very few people who are capable of gaining his friendship or respect.

[Dragon Roast]

Point being, if she reasonably expects Theon to be executed, and is preparing a "humane" ground for the sacrifice, then why bother and request Reek's delivery? For her, asking for Reek from Jon is a redundancy, as she know exactly where the former is. She also is aware that dropping a "Reek" name by and large would not motivate Jon to any actions....

Is there something we are missing?

Jon could have known that Theon had been renamed Reek by Ramsey from the Karstarks at the wall. Alys knew of the planned betrayal of Stannis and to know that she would have known of the meetings at the Dreadfort, the coming wedding to fArya and the fate of Theon. Her uncle in the ice cells could have known as well. Keeping Theon as a pet would have been a Bolton calling card in the North and not something to be kept completely under wraps.

Did Jon know? Would "I want my Reek back" have any meaning for him? Maybe not, but he would want to know about Theon and if he asked he would most likely would learn of Reek. He knew that Theon was Ramsey's prisoner and that he was being tortured. I find it unlikely that he would never ask Alys or his ice cell guests about the fate of Theon...

[Inquisitor Glokta]

Re-reading the letter, I find it very unlikely that Ramsay did write the letter. As well as I don't think it was Mance either. Asha seems to be the most probable person to have written it. She wants to save herself, of course, but save Theon too, to make the Kingsmoot invalid. It is possible that she wrote it to make the messier battle scenario possible, making an escape attempt more likely to succeed and save Theon.

I what universe is Asha the most likely candidate, to have written the pink letter?

She doesn't even know who Jon Snow is, why would she write a letter to him? Seriously, Asha has no idea who Jon Snow is, why would she write a letter to HIM?

Asha is btw a captive in Stannis camp and with those Karstark guys, you can be sure as hell, that the Mannis has those ravens guarded. So the captive Asha walks up to the guarded ravens and goes like:

"Sup, guys? I'm just gonna write a quick letter, never mind me."

If anything, Asha is the least likely candidate so far. I would sooner see a wall crossing psychic Ser Alliser as the author than Asha.

[MaesterSamwell]

Who else would write the letter? Someone who wanted Jeyne rescued, and the Boltons exposed. The northern lords in Winterfell, the GNC (Great Northern Conspiracy), in conjunction with Mance. Mance was working on a plan, but the spearwives jumped the gun, so we don't know what the plan was. He could see Manderly was a Bolton opponent. If he had already approached Manderly and Co, they could have composed the letter before the confusion caused by the Frey sortie and subsequent escape. Lady Dustin could supply the Reek info, and help mimic Ramsey's writing style. The maesters at Winterfell were attached to Houses Cerwyn, Hornwood, and Slate, all Stark loyalists. Since they were handling Bolton's letters at WF, they would have access to pink sealing wax.

In this scenario, the Pink Letter is sent very soon after Theon and Jeyne's escape, probably before the Freys attack Stannis, and before Stannis does anything deceptive with the Dreadfort ravens. The Boltons have to stop Jeyne, and the letter is sent to Jon to increase Jeyne's chance of reaching safety.

OK, tell me what I got wrong.

I think this does a great job of proving it is not Ramsey (he definitely would not fArya revealed by Jon). Ever since I read the GNC, I have believed that Manderlay or Lady Dustin wrote this letter. I find Lady Dustin the most likely because she hated Ned Stark (supposedly), but also was deciding who to follow really. (She was the one who said the North Remembers to the Freys). It fits with the modus operandi of what has been laid out in the Great Northern Conspiracy as well. Keep Jon out of everyone else's mind until the last minute, have him ride in and save the day (even though it doesn't really need saving if the GNC is true), test Jon to see what kind of man he would be and how he reacts to an adverse situation, and what a perfect way to crown the new King of the North but to do it right after he defeats the Boltons/Freys (also a perfect time for Howland Reed to show up, lead Jon to the crypts and prove his true heritage, but a topic for another thread).

[jjspaceman]

As long as we're going tinfoil hat and all, has anyone speculated that this letter was written solely to make Jon and his host leave the Wall, so its inevitable attack by the Others goes more swiftly and easily? Or at least sow division among the different factions at the Wall so they are weakened for the attack? I am convinced that at least one human faction either supports or will support The Others, and we're looking at a battle that has a host of candidates with the Ironborn prisoners (their god seems similar to the Great Other), Stannis and the theory of him becoming the next Night's King, the Boltens who might support the Others just because they're sick and twisted. Mance Rayder might have the least likely connection, seeing as how he's desperately trying to escape the Others.

[jjspaceman]

The chapter is no longer available online (at least I can't find it) but what is the exact line that Stannis relates to Massey in regards to his death? I don't remeber it word for word, but it seemed pretty obvious that he knew of that fake letter. Doesn't mean he sent it, but he knew about it. :dunno:

With that said, I must take issue your first motive

In that case, why send a letter saying that Stannis and his troops have been obliterated? The message I would get from such a letter is, there's nothing left to fight for and surrender.

This is actually quite a compelling refutation if you ask me. If Asha had hoped for a savior you'd think she'd do it in a way that makes Jon think his intervention is necessary and not be doomed to futility. I think it lends more credence that it came from the Boltens, hoping either to sow division at the Wall or draw Jon out so he's easier to fight in the elements rather than defending a castle.

[jjspaceman]

I think this does a great job of proving it is not Ramsey (he definitely would not fArya revealed by Jon). Ever since I read the GNC, I have believed that Manderlay or Lady Dustin wrote this letter. I find Lady Dustin the most likely because she hated Ned Stark (supposedly), but also was deciding who to follow really. (She was the one who said the North Remembers to the Freys). It fits with the modus operandi of what has been laid out in the Great Northern Conspiracy as well. Keep Jon out of everyone else's mind until the last minute, have him ride in and save the day (even though it doesn't really need saving if the GNC is true), test Jon to see what kind of man he would be and how he reacts to an adverse situation, and what a perfect way to crown the new King of the North but to do it right after he defeats the Boltons/Freys (also a perfect time for Howland Reed to show up, lead Jon to the crypts and prove his true heritage, but a topic for another thread).

Oh jeez. I guess I need to read up on the GNC, because that's pretty compelling too, lol. I guess we just need the next book to come out ASAP, since all this speculation just ends in a circle jerk.