Asha Wrote the Bastard Letter (Theon I, TWOW Spoilers)

[mushroomshirt]

This is actually quite a compelling refutation if you ask me. If Asha had hoped for a savior you'd think she'd do it in a way that makes Jon think his intervention is necessary and not be doomed to futility. I think it lends more credence that it came from the Boltens, hoping either to sow division at the Wall or draw Jon out so he's easier to fight in the elements rather than defending a castle.

I agree that the Boltons are probably trying to draw Jon south, but it's not because they don't want to attack him in castle black. All of the Night's Watch castles are not defensible from attacks coming from the south, only from the north. They have no southern walls.

[The Killer Snark]

mushroomshirt - A fairly astute point, but tactically and politically what would be the Boltons' purpose in attacking the Night's Watch? It would incur the disapproval of their supporters, exposing their house as a pack of tyrants, in addition to the fact that, already under siege, they lack the manpower to march north against a non-existent enemy, since Jon would only be taklng along a few personal supporters of his cause. If they plan to attack Jon outside Winterfell, it only adds another enemy to one who appears not yet defeated, and I think we're all agreed it's unlikely the writer isn't lying about Stannis' death.

[mushroomshirt]

I subscribe to the theory that Ramsay wrote the letter after being tricked into thinking Stannis is dead. In this theory, Ramsay has learned from Mance or a captured spearwife that Jon conspired to rescue fake Arya. Now Ramsay thinks that the Karstarks / Freys / Manderlys have defeated Stannis. Jon is the next enemy to be dealt with. Ramsay's battle is only with the Nights Watch in so far as Jon is Lord Commander. Once Jon is dealt with Ramsay won't have anything against the Night's Watch with a new LC who presumably will not meddle in the wars of the realm like Jon is doing.

Another poster pointed out that the letter could have one of two effects, both good for Ramsay in this scenario:

1) Jon could be cowed and no longer interfere with Ramsay

2) Jon could do something stupid like march to Winterfell possibly causing division in the Nights Watch & bringing him South in a weakened position

At least that's my interpretation...

[The Killer Snark]

Right, those are good points. I'd temporarily forgotten about the characters outside Winterfell's walls who Ramsay doesn't realise yet are defecting against him. it may even be possible, as has been pointed out elsewhere (I forget who by) that Ramsay does have Stannis' sword, but there's a personal charm missing from it rendering it's potential power unintact, i.e. the sword was given away by Stannis to the conspirators outside the walls.

[JonStarkIII]

First up, long time reader, first time poster. I'm a huge fan of GRRM, and am way too addicted to reading these forums not to share something I think might be a potential find (especially considering all the “gems” I’ve discovered thanks to a community of astute readers).

For quite some time I’ve considered all the “usual suspects” for penning the Bastard Letter, but what follows is a case for purporting Asha as a primary suspect. I've opted to post this as its own topic (instead of in the Theon I sticky) because it is specifically about the author of the Letter (with evidence from Theon I), but not about everything else covered in Theon I. Anyway, first, a little bit of...

Setup:

If Ramsay wrote the Letter, this means he has Mance and/or at least one spearwife held captive and that he/she/they would be willing to talk. As it happens, Mance (or a spearwife) being held in unconfirmed captivity remains amongst my primary points of contention with Ramsay authoring the Letter. Moreover, that the Letter itself is the only piece of evidence we presently have to go on for asserting Ramsay as the author.

Furthermore, without a POV to confirm that Ramsay performed the deeds in the Letter (and no more POVs in WF thanks to Theon’s exit), the most likely way for “Ramsay supporters” to get “canon confirmation” will be through one of Theon’s or Asha’s upcoming TWOW chapters, since they’re in the neighborhood.

Therefore, one of the following scenarios must be accepted: (1) the events in the Letter are yet to happen, (2) Ramsay is lying about something, or (3) the Letter has an alternate author.

In the case of readers who believe #1, you are simply waiting for a POV to confirm this, which actually means Ramsay will author the Letter (not that he has yet), because Stannis is still alive in Theon I, and seven days of battle have yet to happen.

Meanwhile, if it’s #2 for you, the potential lies range from capturing a spearwife instead of Mance to perhaps not obliterating Stannis and his forces etc. Once again, though, only a POV can provide a window into which events are “real” or not, and the only POVs in the area “presently” are Asha and Theon. Since the Letter itself is not proof of the authorship, a second citation confirming Ramsay as the author is still necessary.

Finally, if you’re in camp #3, as Tormund says after hearing the contents of the Letter from Jon:

“Har. That’s buggered, and no mistake... Might be all a skin o’ lies... If I had me a nice goose quill and a pot o’ maester’s ink, I could write down that me member was long and thick as me arm, wouldn’t make it so.”

To that end, regarding the potential for an alternate author, it’s important to note that anyone other than Ramsay would have to have a very particular set of information which pertains to Stannis, WF, Mel, the Wall, the wildlings, etc., which is why the cast of text-supported suspects is not all that large in my view.

Furthermore, it already appears to be widely accepted that much of the information in the Letter came from Mance, and this is because – even if you believe Ramsay wrote the Letter – you’re already granting that the information required to write certain parts of the Letter comes from Mance or a spearwife.

To take this notion one step further, Theon is a necessary information conduit to “camp Stannis” as A Ghost in Winterfell, ADWD leaves us with Theon heading off to have a conversation with Mance:

“But not till you’ve sung for Abel. He’s waiting for you.”

The conversation alluded to, however, is never witnessed, as Theon’s next POV picks up sometime after their conversation occurs:

“A few more tankards, and perhaps Abel’s plan might not seem quite so mad.”

The admission of a “plan” – and confirmation that a discussion occurred – is all that’s needed to set up the possible passage of additional information from Mance to Theon.

Asha's Access to Info:

In a key sentence from Theon I, TWOW, Theon not only confirms the passage of information from Mance to him, but passes the info along to Asha as well:

Then the words came spilling out of Theon in a rush. He tried to tell her all of it, about Reek and the Dreadfort and Kyra and the keys, how Lord Ramsay never took anything but skin unless you begged for it. He told her how he'd saved the girl, leaping from the castle wall into the snow. "We flew. Let Abel make a song of that, we flew." Then he had to say who Abel was, and talk about the washerwomen who weren't truly washerwomen.

So if nothing else, Theon I provides us with a direct link for the passage of information from Theon to Asha (although not yet to Stannis, for those purporting Stannis as the author). Specifically, Theon exposes – to Asha – elements of his conversation with Mance including the true identity of Abel and the washerwomen, and details about his time as Reek... key info to have if one is going to author the Letter.

Further, Asha has been travelling with Stannis long enough to know about Melisandre, Stannis’ “magic sword,” wildlings at the Wall, queen’s men, and Stannis’ family being at the Wall (through Massey, Stannis himself, Aly, etc.). As such, she has likely been made privy to all the details required to write the Letter. In fact, for many who believe that Stannis wrote the Letter, it’s through the informational conduit of either Theon or Asha, and at this point Asha is far as we can confirm the information has actually gotten.

So what’s her motive?

Motive 1:

Asha is a captive in an enemy's camp and is days if not moments away from certain death. Considering Jon grew up with Theon, a last ditch hope makes it plausible that – if she could convince Jon to show up in force – he could not only help Stannis win the battle for WF, but potentially even allow the Greyjoys to live in the aftermath.

From Asha’s view, she knows Stannis won’t ask for help and may even believe Stannis’ stubbornness is setting them all up for imminent defeat. She also knows there is only one force in the world that is both close enough to matter, and would be potentially willing to assist Stannis. Furthermore, although the reader generally accepts that the Others are coming “soon,” the vast majority of the characters in the books still seem to have little-to-no respect for “staffing” the Wall for the battle-to-end-all-battles. As such, from Asha’s perspective, due to Jon’s fledgling alliance with Stannis and his history of growing up in WF, what could possibly be more important than liberating his hometown and aiding his ally… and, by extension, Asha as well?

Motive 2:

Euron’s victory at the kingsmoot has left Asha without any real hope of the life that she envisioned for herself. With Euron in charge, the Iron Isles are a dead end for Asha, unless she can find a way around the decision of the kingsmoot... To this end, Tris points out:

“Even if you did find your uncle Damphair, the two of you would fail. You were both part of the kingsmoot, so you cannot say it was unlawful called, as Torgon did. You are bound to its decision by all the laws of gods and men.”

“Asha remembered now “Torgon came home …”

“… and said the kingsmoot was unlawful since he had not been there to make his claim...”

“Drown me for a fool, Tris, I should have remembered—”

The takeaway of this (much longer) conversation is effectively this: to overturn the decision of the kingsmoot, she needs to (1) live and (2) get herself and Theon to the Iron Islands to stake his claim as king (at least that’s what Tris’ story suggests, and Asha is so happy she kisses him for the information).

Motive 3:

Asha reflects back numerous times to her widowed mother who is still mourning over the persistent ache of losing her children, coupled with the loss of Balon.

“So she went. To Ten Towers first, to bid farewell to her mother. “It may be a long while before I come again,” Asha warned her. Lady Alannys had not understood. “Where is Theon?” she asked. “Where is my baby boy?”

The main takeaway here is that Alannys is consistently inquiring about Theon in every interaction that Asha has with her, which Asha recognizes, and as such shields her mother from the painful truth of reality that her baby boy is most likely never coming home.

However, now that’s she’s found Theon, she may believe she can return him to the Iron Island’s not only “selfishly” (see motive #2), but also to appease her mother. This may be the weakest of her potential motives, but it’s supported in the text.

Side Notes on Motives:

First up, these motives are not mutually exclusive, so all she needs is one.

Also, as Theon I ends with Asha suggesting that Stannis take Theon to the godswood, it’s my current believe that this is not actually to die, despite what Asha says to Stannis:

"Then do the deed yourself, Your Grace." The chill in Asha's voice made Theon shiver in his chains. "Take him out across the lake to the islet where the weirwood grows, and strike his head off with that sorcerous sword you bear. That is how Eddard Stark would have done it. Theon slew Lord Eddard's sons. Give him to Lord Eddard's gods. The old gods of the north. Give him to the tree."

Rather, Theon gave Asha another piece of information, which implies that there is some sort of “old gods power” at play, and she may very well be completely dependent upon that power’s intervention in an upcoming chapter.

"The heart tree knew my name. The old gods. Theon, I heard them whisper. There was no wind but the leaves were moving. Theon, they said. My name is Theon."

I primarily mention this side point because it is critical to keeping two of Asha’s three stated motives intact. If she does end up being responsible for Theon’s death through her “directive” to Stannis, this action would fly in the face of the tale of Trogon, and Asha’s virtually stated desire to overrule the recent kingsmoot. Therefore, it feels to me like she’s got a half-baked plan and is rolling the dice by sending Theon to the godswood, as she hopes (or expects) that he will somehow live through the experience based on something Theon told her.

Opportunity:

Asha has/had a sample of Ramsay’s wedding invitation, and as such knows his penmanship, tone, signature, and seal. The seal, of course, is one of the potential “tells” of the Bastard Letter – in that it’s sealed with a smear of pink wax (or maybe white wax mixed with blood? Weirwood sap?), instead of a pink button with an official seal (which Asha wouldn’t have easy access to while in Stannis’ camp).

So if you buy any or all of her motives, and grant that she has enough information – as well as a “template” letter from Ramsay by which to pen the Bastard Letter – all that’s left is to send a raven.

“Lord Arnolf had found them eight days past. The northman had brought a son, three grandsons, four hundred spears, two score archers, a dozen mounted lances, a maester, and a cage of ravens … but only enough provisions to sustain his own.”

Assuming one of those One Way Ravens is trained to go to Castle Black, or that BranRaven may be able to control/deliver the Letter, then Asha has access to means of delivery.

In fact, if you believe that Stannis wrote the Letter, then I think you’ve already given credence to the notion that someone from his camp is capable of sending one of those ravens to Castle Black, and that the passage of information from Mance-to-Theon-to-Stannis has occurred, or will soon. At this time however, the only text supported information pathway from WF to Stannis’ camp is Mance-to-Theon-to-Asha. That is to say, Stannis may not actually know about Mance or “Reek” yet, but Asha does.

Finally, Asha also needs a tactic that will have the desired effect on Jon. For this, she gets her inspiration from Robin Peasebury’s men, specifically their sergeant who berated, cursed, and insulted his guards as he was being pulled up to the fire to burn for eating a fallen comrade. He ultimately is given a red smile before reaching the fire, thus avoiding the fate of burning alive. Asha purposely watches this entire scene play out and comments:

“The serjeant was the clever one,” Asha said to Aly Mormont. “He goaded Suggs into killing him.” She wondered if the same trick might work twice, should her own turn come.

From this prior recollection, Asha now begins to see that she can use all the information at her disposal to achieve her goal. That is, if she can write the Letter to anger the recipient, she may convince them to forget their vows and duties due to their rage and desire for vengeance.

To that point, the Letter is clearly crafted to not only enrage Jon (bastard, Winterfell, bride) but is written in such a way to anger every group of people at the wall – King’s Men (Stannis is dead), Queen’s Men (red whore, Selyse, Shireen), NW (crows), wildlings (Mance in a cage, Val, the wildling babe). Asha has therefore drafted the letter to be a galvanizing force for them all in their sense of vengeance for their fallen or captured leaders, and demand for key hostages.

Conclusion:

Much like the cases for Ramsay, Mance, Stannis or Theon there is still much to play out via future POVs here, but Ramsay’s supporting text is basically limited to the Letter itself, while reliable text for Asha being a primary suspect (thanks largely to Theon I) may be stacking up.

Amongst the alternate authors, I feel Asha has the strongest motives, the clearest means, the fewest issues with “character consistency,” and one of the best windows of opportunity, as outlined above.

So in an upcoming POV, all that remains is for Asha to take advantage of a diversion and head to the guardhouse, where as it happens, Stannis has conveniently left the two remaining ravens, a quill, and a pot of (presently frozen) ink.

WOW....really good theory and well written. Asha would never have crossed my mind...but as you wrote..she has all the intel....very good :)

[pyker]

Asha didn't write it. She wants a warriors death. She doesn't want to just survive.

Val wrote the letter.

[Varamyr6skins]

Complete shot inn the dark. Your connecting dots that only your see, dots that aren't even there. Youre making a lot of assuptions, and putting together the theory based on what ifs and more assumptions.

Ramsay wrote the letter. There isn't too much to it.

He has captured Mance, Why not? Mance is one in a castle full with an army. The washerwomen were engaged with Boltons men, as well as helping Theon and FArya escape, Ramsays bride.

Ramsay is VERY angry at the current moment His pride, his claim to the North (fArya), his Reek, and his and his father's hold on the Northern lords support have been taken from him.

Mance def. is getting flayed right now, giving up all sorts of information.

Ex: "I'm Mance Rayder, king beyond the wall, Jon Snow and Lady Red saved my by switching my identity with Rattleshirt. Sent me here to steal his half sister away and bring her to him, at castle black. Stannis is on the march, coming for you guys"

What do you think Ramsays next move is? That Letter seems pretty consistent with the aftermath of recent events. Often the most simplest explanation is the truest.

BOOM

[Varamyr6skins]

Even Further, What would Asha hope to accomplish by sending that letter to the Wall. The storms are raging. What little help the NW has to offer wouldn't make it in time. and wouldn't be of any use. Ill suited warriors, ill equipped. They march and then what? Ramsay has to make a play for the Wall. He has to get fArya back. BY ALL MEANS NECCESSARY. There is no other choice. Ramsay is headed to the wall.

[Red Typer of Dorne]

This is a very well written theory, however I still lean towards Ramsay writing it many of my reasons are already in previous posts. The two main reasons I don't believe it is Asha are 1) Her access as a captive to parchment, ink and a raven. I assume that in a situation where battle could arrive at any moment the ravens are constantly tended so they can be sent quickly. 2) The repeated use of "Bastard", though it's clear from the book's that it is not polite to refer to one's parentage, there seem's to be only one character who views bastard as the insult it is being used as and that is Ramsay. He hates to be reminded of the fact and probably assumes that everyone else feels the same. 3) Motivation- Though Asha's motivations are well presented, I believe Ramsay's is much simpler. His claim to Winterfell, If Jon were to see 'his bride' surely he would realize it's not Ayra. If Ramsay has Mance and knows of the Others he maybe of the opinion that Jon will not split his forces for a stranger.

These are just my opinions and thought's and may well be wrong.

On a side note: Regarding Asha chiding Stannis to take Theon to the godswood for execution, this maybe a ploy to spare Theon a burning at least for the present. There are a large contingency of Northmen in his host and Stannis would lose face if he didn't stick to the Old way. We have seen the importance of this in the North, from Ned explaining to Bran why he killed the nightwatch deserter. Ned challenging king Robert to swing the blade himself in regards to Lady and even Lord Karstark Thanking Robb for swinging the sword if for nothing else at his execution. If Stannis needs Theons Kings Blood, he would be wise to wait til the battle is over and he doesn't need the northmen so much.

[JLE]

I think Ramsay wrote the bastard letter, but was tricked by Stannis.

Theon to Stannis: "You do not know him"
Stannis to Theon: "No more than he knows me"

Neither knows truly what the other looks like. Ramsay has used disguise for his ends before. Theon might recognise him, even disguised: but no other man in the Northern host would know him in disguise, and few - certainly none of Stannis's own men - would know him even without the disguise: those who know him are all inside Winterfell. Certainly the mountain clans and Glovers don't know Ramsay.

But then, Stannis is not from the North: the Boltons probably don't know *him* all that well either, since he did not march through the North when he came here on campaign against the Greyjoys, but sailed to the Iron Islands by ship, and beat them at sea. Ramsay, without a nobleman's education even of who is who, won't necessarily know who Stannis is, and might himself be fooled by a disguise or an impostor with the right outfit and manner.

Two armies, not three, are coming for Stannis: the Freys and Manderlys. Ramsay does not have a sufficient troop to command, to be a danger to Stannis's army on the battlefield: nor does he have any skill in commanding troops. He is coming, as Theon knows - but not with an army. Therefore he is tagging along with either Manderly or Frey forces, and hoping to achieve something by treachery.

And the Manderlys and Freys have nearly come to blows in Winterfell, even under Roose Bolton's nose: it is inconceivable that they will *not* come to blows without ever meeting Stannis, outside, when Roose is not there. Ramsay cannot achieve any treachery with the Freys: if the Freys beat the Manderlys, then they will simply be carved up by Stannis's forces, and not a man will be spared - the Northmen will not let a single Frey live in a pitched battle. Therefore if Ramsay is to leave the castle and achieve anything, he must be hiding among the Manderlys, and hoping to defect to Stannis with them in disguise, after the destruction of the Frey army under Ser Hosteen.

Stannis is not stupid. Knowing (both from Theon, and from other things) the extent of Ramsay's dealing with treachery and disguise, and believing that the Manderlys - although they may hate the Freys - may be craven enough to *surrender* (that they will, in fact, defect instead, will prove to make not much difference, except that Wylis Manderly, alive and now free, will be able to tell Stannis that Davos is still alive), may well have already guessed that Ramsay will be hidden among the Manderlys, and may have had the plan of keeping Theon alive for long enough in the hope that he can point Ramsay out.

But he has a backup plan. "No more than he knows me" - he intends to rely on Ramsay not knowing who Stannis is, and trying to assassinate the wrong man. He's already hinted as much to Massey: "You may hear rumours that I am dead. It may even be true" - implying that there is a chance of the rumours happening, and NOT being true. In other words, he intends to fake his own death. "It may even be true" because the ruse may fail and there is a chance that Ramsay may evade detection long enough to kill the real man, or that he may simply die of cold in the snow: but he intends to fake his own death, and the only way to do it is by putting up an impostor to pose as him, knowing that the impostor has a high chance of being killed, and it being reported as the death of the real Stannis.

So. He's planning to switch with an impostor - he expects Ramsay to be coming in disguise among the Manderly forces, to defect or surrender. He plans for Theon to recognise Ramsay, but also sees the possibility that Theon may be fooled, or Ramsay may not encounter Theon.

We have eyes in Stannis's camp (Theon and Asha) but not in Winterfell, so the important action will happen there.

(1) If Theon recognises Ramsay among defectors / surrenderers / prisoners, Ramsay is captured, or killed. Stannis does not generally torture people before death but might well make an exception of Ramsay - it would be lovely to see him flayed alive.

(2) If Theon does NOT recognise Ramsay (does not encounter him, or does not recognise him), then Ramsay makes an assassination attempt. If he fails (either on the real Stannis, or on the impostor in his service), then he is killed or captured: see (1). If he finds the real Stannis and kills him, then the war is over and the Boltons win the North.

(3) If, however, Ramsay manages to successfully assassinate the *fake* Stannis - possibly identifying the latter by means of the red sword, which he steals - then he has to escape alive. If he fails, see (1): if he succeeds, it can only be with the help of his own "traitors" within Stannis's camp - the Karstarks.

(4) However, the Karstarks' treachery has been rumbled. If anyone helps Ramsay escape back to Winterfell, it will be Stannis's own army in Karstark uniforms. (Possibly his Northern allies, because southerners would be given away by their accents. The clansmen might not be up to the trick, but the Umbers and Glovers could pull it off - especially the Umbers, if Hother's faction are in fact in communication with Mors, and planning to betray Roose Bolton: I think ALL the Umbers are Stark loyalists.)

(5) So, Ramsay gets back to Winterfell... having killed what he believes to be the real Stannis, and stolen the red sword (which Stannis is happy enough to allow, knowing that the sword has no true power): but failed to discover Theon (kept safely hidden) or Jeyne/"Arya" (sent north to the Wall, but not yet arrived). This puts him in the prime position to be the true author of the Pink Letter, but to have been deceived, and to be stating what he mistakenly believes to be the truth. The capture of Mance Rayder and the flaying of the six spearwives is a true thing. The raven bringing the Pink Letter to the Wall passed Jeyne Poole, Tycho Nestoris, Justin Massey and company en route.

(6) The fact that Ramsay writes it and calls himself "Lord of Winterfell" suggests that Roose is no longer in the picture - Roose would not have sanctioned Ramsay writing the letter, nor allowed him to write and send such a letter by stealth. I expect Ramsay to kill Roose at some point and try to seize power for himself. Roose possibly anticipates every move *except* that - he thinks Ramsay will not go that far since he owes everything to Roose, and the one thing he doesn't expect is Ramsay murdering him.

(7) So then, with Roose dead, Ramsay in charge, nearly everybody looking for an opportunity to betray him, and Stannis's own supporters inside Winterfell in Karstark uniforms, right there to open the gates when the real Stannis comes marching up. Winterfell will fall to Stannis.

Meanwhile... Wyman Manderly, held in Winterfell as hostage against his son, finds some way to commit suicide (possibly after having arranged this already with Wylis), so that Wylis can act as he pleases, alive and free, knowing that the Boltons have no effective hostage against him. I wouldn't be surprised if there was an echo of the fate of old King Mithridates of Pontus - trying to poison himself but proving immune (Mithridates because he had spent decades taking antidotes and small doses so as to immunise himself: Manderly because he's too fat and can't get a big enough dos to wreck his system) and having to kill himself with a sword instead.

And the Umbers - Hother and company are the greybeards, leaving behind the Umber lands (in which there was not enough food) to eat off their enemy's stores by a pretended defection, while Mors and the youngsters will be next year's grown men. If the winter prevented any future battles, then in a few years time all the old Umber men would be dead, and Bolton would have none: while all the young men would be grown up, and Mors's loyalists would *be* House Umber, swearing allegiance to the younger sons of the Greatjon once they are grown (neither Mors nor Hother has any sons to complicate the picture, so Mors is a safe custodian for his nephews' interests - and although Smalljon was killed, Greatjon is stated to have had more than one son: and, as seen with Wyman Manderly above, a father held hostage against a son's behaviour is of far less use than a son held hostage to keep a father honest.) Hother is working for his brother, in the only way that he and his old men can - taking themselves away, not eating up the next generation's resources, and indeed, helping to starve their enemies out (and with their cooperation, too - Bolton is feeding the old Umbers because he thinks he's keeping them onside.)

[Monctonvike]

I am not sure who wrote the letter but if Asha wrote the letter I think she might be warged by Bran. Her voice really seems to change when she says"

Quote

"Then do the deed yourself, Your Grace." The chill in Asha's voice made Theon shiver in his

chains. "Take him out across the lake to the islet where the weirwood grows, and strike his

head off with that sorcerous sword you bear. That is how Eddard Stark would have done

it. Theon slew Lord Eddard's sons. Give him to Lord Eddard's gods. The old gods of the

north. Give him to the tree."

I don't think she is the type that would know all the northern ways. Maybe Bran wasn't getting his messgage across from the crowes and decides to take it a step further. Asha was weakened from the trek and the battle and maybe susceptible to being warged at this point

[SnowHeart]

Great OP, really well though out and detailed. Kinda missed the fact that the info wouldn't have got from Asha to Stannis (who was my number 1 suspect).

Can't remember off the top of my head, but wasn't there evidence that it wasn't Ramsey from the handwriting - in all his other letters it was specifically described as 'Spikey' but not in this one. Also the lack of a piece of skin.

[OmnomnomPomelo]

I can imagine that Mance captured Ramsay after the army went out to attack Stannis, and thus Mance wrote it,coz there are the word "bastard" a lot of times in the letter and the writer calls Jon a "crow".

[Darren K]

It's a good theory. It makes sense, actually.

I do not think that Stannis would write the letter, he has a sense of justice that doesn't match with it.

[Darkbringer]

This theory has strong and weak points, but over all well done. Weak points include:

Asha somehow gets the materials and time to write a letter? And knows how to send a raven? I thought only maesters could do that? How could she convince a maestrr to do that?

-If Jon gets a hold of Theon, he is dead.

- The battle is almost upon Stannis at the end of Theon 1. Any letter must be post battle, realistically. After the battle it will only be a matter of time until fArya gets to the wall and the jig is up, rendering the provocation useless.

- Asha doesn't know what a feckless idiot Jon can be.

Don't get me wrong, I like the theory, but the Stannis deception raven to Winterfell seems more plausible.

[Low Sparrow]

Slayer, I started reading this thread full of skepticism and doubt, hesitant to entertain another batshit insane pink letter theory. I am of the mind that Ramsay wrote the letter and that, most of the other theories come down to hope and wild speculation.

That said, you've done an excellent job reasoning for and providing support for your theory. While I am, for the moment, still of mind that Ramsay wrote the letter based on a disinformation campaign from the Stannis camp ... you've sowed some seeds of doubt into that notion.

I guess now we'll have to wait, and wait, and wait for Winds of Winter.

:crying:

Hopefully, the show won't eclipse the pink letter plotline and spoil it before then. Then again, knowing the show-runners, they'll probably find the pink letter as extraneous as the Manderlys and replace it with some relevant brothel scenes instead. Besides, show Stannis won't need an army to take back Winterfell, all he'll need is SuperBrienne and a couple of holy-hand grenade tossing Children of the Forest
:bang:

[Gabfest]

I would like W.Manderly to have plot with Mance and write this letter together. To me there are some info Mance can know about the Boltons. Manderly providing details about Ramsay vicousness (to be able to write like him), the customs of the Boltons and pink wax. Mance knowing how to enrage Jon. It would help Manderly starting a rift between the Boltons and NW and removing Jon if possible to place Rickon easily (since he is younger harder to look fit for the northern crown). The Pie Incident and the Pink Letter seems like a one big farce to put evrybody down. What do you all reckon?

[Monctonvike]

...not to go too far out into la la land but I think if Asha wrote the letter she may have been wargged by Bran. Her voice really changes when she asks Stannis to sacrifice him in front of the weirwoods like Ned would have done.

[Gabfest]

...not to go too far out into la la land but I think if Asha wrote the letter she may have been wargged by Bran. Her voice really changes when she asks Stannis to sacrifice him in front of the weirwoods like Ned would have done.

It's more than ok to speculate after all GRR Martin wants us to! I think Bran was able to warg Hodor because he knew him and Hodor's has a nice obedient personality. He needs a lot of training to do with others. In the prologue with Varamyr he explains how the personalities of his wolves influence his warging control... To me Asha has a strong-willed personality too much for Bran who is at the beginnig of his training. I think she wants the old gods who has spoken to her brother to help him = a huge gamble on her part. Cold voice because of this gamble, she is scared not sure it will work and "cold winds are rising"... I just remember varamyr chapter vaguely, I think I'm gonna reread it when I'm finished with WoIaF. Thanks for your theory I keep many as I can in mind and with some rereadings might be able to cross some off.

[Monctonvike]

It's more than ok to speculate after all GRR Martin wants us to! I think Bran was able to warg Hodor because he knew him and Hodor's has a nice obedient personality. He needs a lot of training to do with others. In the prologue with Varamyr he explains how the personalities of his wolves influence his warging control... To me Asha has a strong-willed personality too much for Bran who is at the beginnig of his training. I think she wants the old gods who has spoken to her brother to help him = a huge gamble on her part. Cold voice because of this gamble, she is scared not sure it will work and "cold winds are rising"... I just remember varamyr chapter vaguely, I think I'm gonna reread it when I'm finished with WoIaF. Thanks for your theory I keep many as I can in mind and with some rereadings might be able to cross some off.

:) thanks

The only reason I think he might be able to warg into Asha is because she is cold exhausted and hurt. If she indeed wrote the letter there are things that she wouldn't know that Bran would. Again I do believe it is a stretch

:cheers: