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Asha Wrote the Bastard Letter (Theon I, TWOW Spoilers)


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I already propsed this theory back when the Theon sample chapter first came out. Sorry.

However, in hindsight I realized that it doesn't really hold water. Unless she is being directed by Bran for some grand scheme that we don't understand yet.

Frankly, Asha doesn't even know Jon, and hasn't got the motive for such a convoluted scheme. Whether Jon races to Winterfell or not really has little relevance to Asha's plight, other than sowing a bit of extra chaos.

If not Ramsay, then the author has to be Mance. He is the one with all of the knowledge, and the motive specifically connected to Jon. By siding with the Boltons in exchange for safe passage for his people, he is achieving his real goal of securing the wildlings future, while getting revenge on the crow that betrayed him - namely Jon.

If true, it sets him on a collission course with Jon, for which the swordfight in the practice yard between them might well have been foreshadowing of a future, battle to the death that is yet to come.

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As theories go, this isn't nearly as crackpot as some, but I must point out that you constrain events to only three possibilities. The hypothesis I believe most likely is that Ramsay wrote this letter believing everything was true, but he has been deceived. What if Stannis had won the battle on the frozen lake and either sent a raven to Bolton telling him what he wanted to hear or even feigned defeat and was brought to Winterfell, along with his southern remnants, disguised as Frey soldiers by the manderlys? Could such a possibility affect your theory?

Noted, and I think that falls under #2, which is - in effect - that there's an untruth in the Letter.

I still believe many of the events people have suggested are plausible, some of which would require that Stannis sent Bolton false info, for example. If that's how the cookie crumbles, so be it.

But as it stands, I think there's more "ammo" for Asha stacking up - in the books - than has been presented for Stannis (as widely discussed as he is on the forums).

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Re-reading the letter, I find it very unlikely that Ramsay did write the letter. As well as I don't think it was Mance either. Asha seems to be the most probable person to have written it. She wants to save herself, of course, but save Theon too, to make the Kingsmoot invalid. It is possible that she wrote it to make the messier battle scenario possible, making an escape attempt more likely to succeed and save Theon.

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But Jon doesn't know who the hell Reek is. Why bother?

Same reason Ramsay or any of the other candidates would. To make it seem authentic.

Alternatively, because Asha wouldn't know that Jon doesn't care.

Some ideas, anyway. I don't think it debunks her plausibility to have Reek included.

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I already propsed this theory back when the Theon sample chapter first came out. Sorry.

However, in hindsight I realized that it doesn't really hold water. Unless she is being directed by Bran for some grand scheme that we don't understand yet.

Frankly, Asha doesn't even know Jon, and hasn't got the motive for such a convoluted scheme. Whether Jon races to Winterfell or not really has little relevance to Asha's plight, other than sowing a bit of extra chaos.

If not Ramsay, then the author has to be Mance. He is the one with all of the knowledge, and the motive specifically connected to Jon. By siding with the Boltons in exchange for safe passage for his people, he is achieving his real goal of securing the wildlings future, while getting revenge on the crow that betrayed him - namely Jon.

If true, it sets him on a collission course with Jon, for which the swordfight in the practice yard between them might well have been foreshadowing of a future, battle to the death that is yet to come.

Hi Free Northman, and thanks for the note! FWIW, I spent quite a bit of time looking through “Asha posts” and didn't come up with much, or else I would have jumped onto that thread first instead of starting my own!

It’s also worth noting that I was in “camp Mance” for the longest time prior to collecting all this Asha info.

Unfortunately, though, I don’t believe there’s anything in the text to support Mance as the author (yet) either, although I will certainly buy it if that’s the route GRRM chooses. ;)

My favorite “literal” clue for Mance is that his name is the only name spelled out in the Letter – Mance Rayder – while everyone else gets a Ramsay pet name.

However, I still have a couple sticking points with him, particularly if Mance is in league with Ramsay, and Ramsay penned the Letter with Mance’s input, as you suggest:

  1. Why write it at all after freeing “Arya”? I suppose because he was “caught,” and quickly changed his tune to manipulate Ramsay into going after a bigger prize instead, or maybe planning it all along, whatever. I do believe that – just as Mance knew Jon from a visit to WF – he likely knows that “Arya” is Jeyne as well (with equal cause for that assumption), but that’s never exposed in the text either. More importantly, though, if he truly wanted Jon to come to WF, wouldn’t he also then not free “Arya”, and compose the Letter while Jon still believed the real Arya was held captive in WF?

  2. Does he know about the baby swap yet between his son and Gilly’s? This is not revealed in the text yet either. But if he believes Jon has his son, wouldn’t he simply go through with the mission and return home (if possible)? Where, if he believes Jon does not have his son, wouldn’t he instead go through with the above scenario of working with Ramsay to make sure Jon believed the real Arya was still in WF? Or perhaps not go on the mission at all? Again, why help her escape at all, unless he believed Jon had his son? Also, in scenario, why become adversarialwith Jon prior to ensuring the safety of his son?

  3. Why bother with a “code letter” which might not have the desired result? If Mance is truly in league with Ramsay, why not simply write Jon – as Mance – to tell them Mance ordered the wildlings to go to WF and mitigate the risk of the letter not having the desired effect?

  4. Why not seal the Letter properly? Sure, angry and in a hurry, maybe, but the smear is either a clue or a red herring, and since we’ll have to wait who-know-how-long for the next book, I wanted to explore the angle of it being a clue to see what I came up with, and Asha appears to have more supporting text than the other characters at present, and nothing yet stating it's "impossible."

Again, I’m not saying that Asha definitely wrote the Letter. I’m just advancing her candidacy, because I most often see Ramsay, Stance or Mance discussed, but over the last (nearly) two years, I don’t feel the evidence is there to give the trophy to any of them just yet – as GRRM intended, I think, as well!

So, in the meantime, we have “quotable text” mixed with speculation, and I don’t think your Asha theory was any flimsier than anything else we can speculate with what we have today.

Secondly, I’m also not sure how we leap from the evidence provided to “unless she’s being directed by Bran for some grand scheme…”

In response, I would suggest that – if Asha authored the Letter – I doubt it’s by way of thinking through all the possible outcomes. However, she does know that Jon and Stannis have a tentative alignment. Therefore, she might be able to reason out that Jon would come down to support Stannis’ cause, particularly if Jon thought Stannis’ forces were in jeopardy or lost, but certainly not if the Letter was written politely and signed by Asha of House Greyjoy.

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I believe it's a mixture of ideas proposed.

I truly believe Roose Bolton wrote the letter, with the help of Mance Rayder(either forced or voluntary) and the total unawareness of Ramsay.

Roose is a smart man and he KNOWS that Stannis's entire backbone is the Wall. But he knows that such a letter that, as you mentioned, would inflame so many different parties would TEAR the bloody wall apart between people wanting to leave and people wanting to stay. I think it's worth mentioning that the total destruction of the wall and the psychological abuse this would no doubtly inflict onto Jon Snow ALONE could've been Mance's award in helping Roose... I mean, think about it: Jon Snow single handily led to the destruction of Mance's power while initially pretending to be Mance's man. How fitting would it be had Mance led to the destruction of Jon Snow's power, all the while pretending to be Jon's man? (Edit to add: Also, as for the spearwives and Arya... Mance could've wanted Arya saved just out of the goodness of his heart and/or he could've known to link up with Roose to begin with, but due to not trusting the spearwives, just put them all up with their initial mission and told them nothing else, and waited for the girls to all escape before planning to approach Roose. Also, had all things went wrong for Mance and he was back in Jon's custody, he could've said "hey, I saved the damn girl - I never betrayed you" as an excuse)

Roose Bolton is VERY smart. While sending out those three armies may not have been the best idea, it works in the short run. He doesn't mean for any of them to return. He likely expects at least the Ramsay and Frey armies to stay loyal and fight either Manderly or Stannis and between those two battles and the weather, doesn't expect either to return. And as for Manderly, he wouldn't let Manderly back into the castle even if they returned with Stannis's corpse and there's NO WAY any of the armies could march anywhere and actually SURVIVE. Hell, don't they believe Stannis is only three days away? They didn't prepare for three month marches to Deepwood or White Harbor. (Edit to add: although, isn't Torren's Square only a short bit away? With Dagmer? I suppose it IS possible that Manderly could head there assuming he survives)

Roose Bolton is also effectively getting rid of Ramsay at the same time who he will be able to place ALL blame on post-Ramsay's death.

As other users more astute and intelligent than me have noticed in Roose Bolton threads:

1. Roose is the ONLY character(whether in a POV thought or in a actual quote) to have mentioned the death of Roose's original son with a connotation of a blame assessed to Ramsay. In fact, not only is Roose the only character in all the books to BLAME Ramsay, he does it publicly and EVERY TIME Roose's deceased son is mentioned.

2. Roose obviously and publicly does not trust Ramsay.

3. Roose Bolton decries and hates on Ramsay every time he gets, even pre-Red Wedding.

Roose Bolton has obviously been setting Ramsay up since A Clash of Kings to be his potential scapegoat HAD something gone wrong, so Roose can get off without a scratch while Ramsay loses his head.

So Roose Bolton writing that letter to the Wall makes sense because if he suspects(or even if he doesn't) Ramsay to die, then he can place ALL blame from anywhere onto Ramsay. Hell, even if Stannis won and took Winterfell in the fight, Roose could still say "hey, it's Ramsay who sacked Winterfell, Ramsay who did this, Ramsay who did that."

Whether or not Roose Bolton is going to survive the Great Northern Conspiracy... I doubt it. Whether or not he's going to survive THIS chapter of the Great Northern Conspiracy? Definitely.

In my opinion, Stannis is going to defeat the three armies sent to fight him(or two if Manderly turns cloak) HOWEVER Roose Bolton himself and his army will either get away or be victorious themselves. It'll only be when Rickon Stark OR Sansa Stark shows up with their armies, or perhaps when Manderly's son invades The Dreadfort while everything in Winterfell is going on, that Roose will ultimately be defeated. (Manderly predicting his death, preparing his son for full scale war and leadership)

/my theories. Anyone agree with any of what I said? If not, debate pleeease.

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I vote yes on Asha plausibility.

I still think that Ramsay or even Mance with information from a Stannis misinformation campaign is the most likely scenario.

I don't think sending a little misinformation to traitors, murderers, and liars would be that out of character for Stannis.

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I already propsed this theory back when the Theon sample chapter first came out. Sorry.

However, in hindsight I realized that it doesn't really hold water. Unless she is being directed by Bran for some grand scheme that we don't understand yet.

Frankly, Asha doesn't even know Jon, and hasn't got the motive for such a convoluted scheme. Whether Jon races to Winterfell or not really has little relevance to Asha's plight, other than sowing a bit of extra chaos.

If not Ramsay, then the author has to be Mance. He is the one with all of the knowledge, and the motive specifically connected to Jon. By siding with the Boltons in exchange for safe passage for his people, he is achieving his real goal of securing the wildlings future, while getting revenge on the crow that betrayed him - namely Jon.

If true, it sets him on a collission course with Jon, for which the swordfight in the practice yard between them might well have been foreshadowing of a future, battle to the death that is yet to come.

^^^ This. When everything is broken down: Knowledge, motive, and intent, the only real possibilities are either Ramsay or Mance.

The letter just felt too personal for Asha to have written it. Addressing Jon as 'Bastard,' and asking for 'My Reek,' seems too authentically Ramsay IMO.

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I believe it's a mixture of ideas proposed.

I truly believe Roose Bolton wrote the letter, with the help of Mance Rayder(either forced or voluntary) and the total unawareness of Ramsay

In Reek III when Reek rides off with Roose, Roose relays to Reek:

“Fear is what keeps a man alive in this world of treachery and deceit. Even here in Barrowton the crows are circling, waiting to feast upon our flesh. The Cerwyns and the Tallharts are not to be relied on, my at friend Lord Wyman plots betrayal, and Whoresbane… the Umbers may seem simple, but they are not without a certain low cunning. Ramsay should fear them all, as I do. The next time you see him, tell him that.”

Roose certainly knows Ramsay cannot trust his own men, and seems to already believe that Wyman is plotting to betray him.

Furthermore, earlier in the same chapter, it’s on Roose’s insistence that Ramsay grudgingly agrees to hold the wedding at Winterfell:

“Even ruined and broken, Winterfell remains Lady Arya’s home. What better place to wed her, bed her, and stake your claim? That is only half of it, however. We would be fools to march on Stannis. Let Stannis march on us. He is too cautious to come to Barrowton… but he must come to Winterfell. His clansmen will not abandon the daughter of their precious Ned to such as you. Stannis must march or lose them… and being the careful commander that he is, he will summon all his friends and allies when he marches. He will summon Arnolf Karstak.”

So Roose neither trusts Ramsay’s men, nor recommends Ramsay march on Stannis.

I also take from this that there’s no way Roose would abandon Winterfell, so why call the entire wildling army down on them, especially when he won't have a similar "Arnolf Karstark play" prepared? Furthermore, if the Wall or the wildlings don't bite on the Letter, would Roose then have to carry through with his threat to cut Jon's bastard heart out and eat by way of leaving WF? I think not...

IMO, Roose has more text support against him than Ramsay, Mance, Stannis, Theon or Asha, but I'm not closing the book on anything yet. :)

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^^^ This. When everything is broken down: Knowledge, motive, and intent, the only real possibilities are either Ramsay or Mance.

The letter just felt too personal for Asha to have written it. Addressing Jon as 'Bastard,' and asking for 'My Reek,' seems too authentically Ramsay IMO.

^^^^This.

It's Ramsay or Mance. I was originally thinking of Mance, because of his name in the letter and Val. Lately, I'm leaning more towards Ramsay because of game mechanics.

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Now, all the Ramsay proponents are banking on him being arrogant, trying to piss Jon off, etc. Why would he do that? Having just defeated a major army trying to besiege him, would he taunt another army into doing the same? Makes no sense. If Ramsay won, his way of celebrating would be flaying someone, not writing letters, however offensive. He has nothing to gain from such a letter. Asha does. The only way I can see Ramsay having a part in it is if Ramsay and Asha somehow colluded - Asha for her selfish motives and Ramsay because Roose wouldn't let him back in Winterfell. But that is pure speculation. The simplest explanation is that Asha wrote it on her own.

Now, there is the possibility of Roose running to the Dreadfort (where he is likely to find another Manderly army besieging it thus ending his Wardenship of the North). For this to happen, though, Roose would have to abandon all hope of retaining Winterfell. He may do that if he believes that the odds of an in-castle rebellion are too high without the fake Arya. Would he write the letter, though? And wouldn't he seal it properly, instead of a mere smear? If he writes the letter and successfully summons a wildling siege, he loses even the slight possibility of his bastard emerging victorious, killing Stannis and retaining control of Winterfell. He might do that if the theory that his entire agenda was to set Ramsay to fall from a high position as vengeance for killing Domeric. Even if that is his goal, Ramsay is pretty much screwed in his sally against Stannis. No need to add more armies to the battle. Both Roose's hatred for Ramsay and his fear from the Northmen should materialize in order for him to write the letter. This is more complicated than simply Asha writing it.

With regard to Mance Rayder writing the letter, I would guess that it may have been plausible before the sample chapter was revealed. Now that we know of Arnolf Karstark's ravens, it seems unlikely (Occam's Razor strikes again) that the letter would be sent without them. Someone outside Winterfell has to write the letter - or someone has to bring the ravens back to the castle. I don't think that Ramsay would be welcome back in order to team up with or to torture Mance; or alternatively that Stannis would take the castle and then resort to conspiring with Mance Rayder - what would he accomplish, the castle is taken, why would he destabilize the Wall? This also excludes Roose from the authorship, provided that he doesn't decide to stop by the watchtower on his way to the Dreadfort with Stannis being at the islet, but this seems unlikely for a careful player such as Roose.

No, the letter is from Asha and if the ravens aren't taught to fly to Castle Black, then with a little 'steering' from Bran they might just get there.

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Now, all the Ramsay proponents are banking on him being arrogant, trying to piss Jon off, etc. Why would he do that? Having just defeated a major army trying to besiege him, would he taunt another army into doing the same? Makes no sense. If Ramsay won, his way of celebrating would be flaying someone, not writing letters, however offensive. He has nothing to gain from such a letter.

Your forgetting that Ramsay is a psychopath for one, he's obsessed with Theon and refuses to let him go. The entire point of the letter is to get Theon and the fake Arya back, that's plenty to gain for Ramsay. He's not exactly going to leave Winterfell and weather the blizzard to get Theon and the fake Arya back, that wouuld make no sense. Ramsay believes he has the upper hand because he thinks Stannis is dead and that the wildlings will come for Mance, he's using that as leverage to get Theon/Arya back. It's much easier to have them brought back as opposed to chasing after them in that weather.

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I agree the tone of the letter is totally Ramsay, Asha has never been around Ramsay long enough to get it down. Reek would not dare, he practically falls apart thinking about how Ramsay will hurt him if he screws up even a little. He even tries to warn Stannis about calling him a bastard out of fear. Yes Asha wants to get Theon back to the Iron Islands for a new kingsmoot, but that is totally self serving. She has an agenda all her own, but the state that Theon is in now, the Ironborn would never follow Theon. He has to become the actuall Theon again for that to happen. Ramsay screwed him up to much for that to happen.

As for Stannis penning the letter, Stannis does not lie. He is rigid and harsh, but is also just. Faking a letter is not in Stannis's character.

I don't think Asha knows Ramsay well enough to pen a letter in his name, more over, I think she lacked opportunity. She was well guarded for most of the time she was with Stannis and even when they lightened up a bit, there was no dialogue of her conspiring to do anything. Plus where did she get the seal? Did she make it? Did she steal away one night and slip into WF to claim one?

Maybe Mance helped her? I think Mance is in WF under his cloak that Ramsay made for him. Mance is s deserter from the NW and must die at somepoint.

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I agree the tone of the letter is totally Ramsay, Asha has never been around Ramsay long enough to get it down. Reek would not dare, he practically falls apart thinking about how Ramsay will hurt him if he screws up even a little. He even tries to warn Stannis about calling him a bastard out of fear. Yes Asha wants to get Theon back to the Iron Islands for a new kingsmoot, but that is totally self serving. She has an agenda all her own, but the state that Theon is in now, the Ironborn would never follow Theon. He has to become the actuall Theon again for that to happen. Ramsay screwed him up to much for that to happen.

As for Stannis penning the letter, Stannis does not lie. He is rigid and harsh, but is also just. Faking a letter is not in Stannis's character.

I don't think Asha knows Ramsay well enough to pen a letter in his name, more over, I think she lacked opportunity. She was well guarded for most of the time she was with Stannis and even when they lightened up a bit, there was no dialogue of her conspiring to do anything. Plus where did she get the seal? Did she make it? Did she steal away one night and slip into WF to claim one?

Maybe Mance helped her? I think Mance is in WF under his cloak that Ramsay made for him. Mance is s deserter from the NW and must die at somepoint.

FWIW, Theon is on hand in "camp Stannis" to provide tone, nicknames, etc., without having to write the Letter himself. I believe a couple years of "getting to know" Ramsay has provided him with the tools required to duplicate his tone and verbiage if called upon.

Also, the Bastard Letter is famously "sealed" with a smear of pink wax, not the Bolton seal, which is one of the potential clues for it not being penned by Ramsay, or in Winterfell at all.

I also file it under "fair enough" if you beleive that Mance is actually a captive, or wrote the Letter himself, but we are still lacking conclusive evidence, which is why the discussion continues. :)

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You're also forgetting the part about Theon being absolutely terrified of Ramsay ^

I don't see him detailing the tone of the letter enough for Asha to fake it, he fears Ramsay too much, but then again he did already get the courage to escape so who knows. I'm fairly certain Ramsay wrote the letter as I've already said, not every single thing has to have an elaborate plot behind it.

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You're also forgetting the part about Theon being absolutely terrified of Ramsay ^

I don't see him detailing the tone of the letter enough for Asha to fake it, he fears Ramsay too much, but then again he did already get the courage to escape so who knows. I'm fairly certain Ramsay wrote the letter as I've already said, not every single thing has to have an elaborate plot behind it.

Perhaps fear is at play, sure, but Theon also opened up when he saw Asha at long last - after escaping (another act of courage, as you say) - and provided some critical details to Asha, plus whatever he may have said that's omitted from the text under the umbrella, "He tried to tell her all of it." Plus, there may yet be a future opportunity for him to provide more info, if needed.

Anyway, while Ramsay is certainly a candidate for authoring the Letter (pending confirmation outside the Letter itself), I'm simply asserting a level a plausibility for Asha as a potential author as well, although I certainly don't expect to sway everybody.

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It's much easier to have them brought back as opposed to chasing after them in that weather.

Yeah, but if the letter accomplishes its goal, Jon and wildlings come knocking and besiege Winterfell. Ramsay could defeat them or be killed. How could he expect to have Reek and fake Arya brought back to him? If the wildlings march, they will do so in an attempt to kill Ramsey, they won't bring Reek and fake Arya just in case they lose the battle. In all likelihood, the valuable hostages will be left safely in Castle Black. Even if the Night's Watch forces its lord commander to send the escapees back to Ramsay, the wildlings will remain an independent element and will march in force. This would render the return of the escapees practically impossible.

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I just don't see Mance getting captured the day Theon / Jeyne escaped. He sets this plan in motion, knows exactly when and how it will go off, knows his spearwives will be missing and then just sits around hoping Ramsay / Roose, two psychopaths, might just assume he knows nothing about it?

Everybody talks about how smart Roose is. But Mance is no fool either. I don't see him sitting around scratching his junk the night the heist goes down and just hoping Ramsay doesnt suspect he knows anything about it when HIS washerwoman steal the bride of Ramsay. Mance took off or hid in the crypts the night the heist went down. Mance is a survivor and a proven ranger.

With that said, I am not certain who wrote the letter (but LOVE the gossip on this forum) but I am certain Mance is not Ramsay's plaything, or that Ramsay wrote the letter. Mance is smart enough.

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